The Nail, October, 2016

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THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Randall Smith Vice President John Zelenak Secretary/Treasurer Keith Porterfield Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Pat Newsome Charlotte Fischer

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Growing job opportunities in residential construction

As the NAHB celebrates Careers in Construction Month in October, builders around the country are seeking skilled craftsmen to help them build the American Dream.

11 2016 James Hardie Parade of Homes Preview

The 2016 James Hardie Parade of Homes opens October 8 at the Hideaway at Arrington. Get a sneak peek here with these excerpts taken from the official event plan book!

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 21 SPIKE Club Report 22 October Calendar 22 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: The James Hardie Building Products Parade of Homes opens October 8 at the Hideaway at Arrington. Get a sneak peek inside!

More on page ten.

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news&info

New home sales remain solid in August

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ales of newly built, single-family homes fell 7.6 percent in August from an upwardly revised July reading to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 609,000 units, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks the second consecutive month that sales have topped a 600,000 annual pace since the Great Recession.

“Given the huge jump in sales in July, the August reading remains robust,” said Ed Brady, chairman of the National Association of Home

Sales are up 21 percent from August last year and year-todate they are running 13 percent higher.

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Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “Sales are up 21 percent from August last year and year-to-date they are running 13 percent higher, indicating that the housing recovery remains firmly on track.”

“A low supply of homes, a broadening of the market with additional sales growth in lower price points and rising household formation all point to a growing demand for housing as we move into 2017,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

The inventory of new homes for sale was 235,000 in August, which is a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price of new houses sold was $284,000.

Regionally, new home sales fell by 34.3 percent in the Northeast, 12.3 percent in the South and 2.4 percent in the Midwest. Sales rose 8 percent in the West. n

Consumer confidence looking up in September

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he Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, rose in September. Compared with last month, consumers were more optimistic about both the current situation and the near term outlook.

The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 104.1, from 101.8 in August. The present situation index rose to 128.5, from 125.3, and the expectations index increased to 87.8, from 86.1.

Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were mixed. Assessments shifted from both “good” and “bad” to “normal”. The share of respondents rating business conditions “normal” rose by 4.9 percentage points from 51.5% to 56.4%. A net decline of 2.9 percentage points in assessments of “good” combined with a 2.0 percentage point net decline in assessments of “bad” for the total.

Similar to consumers’ assessments of current business conditions, expectations of business conditions over the next six months were mixed. The share of respondents expecting future business conditions to be the same rose from 71.0% to 73.3%. About half of the increase was the result of a net decline in respondents expecting future business conditions to be worse, an upgrade, while the rest was the result of a net decline in respondents expecting future business conditions to be better, a downgrade.

Consumers’ assessments of current employment conditions improved. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “hard to get” dropped to 21.6%, from 22.8%. Most of the 1.2 percentage point decline (1.1 percentage point) upgraded to “jobs plentiful”.

Housing production hits a mild speed bump in August

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ationwide housing starts fell 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million units in August, according to newly released data from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department. Overall permit issuance edged 0.4 percent lower.

“After two months of gains, the housing market gave back a bit in August,” said Ed Brady, chairman of the NAHB. “However, with builders reporting low inventory levels and rising confidence, we expect more consumers will return to the market in the months ahead.”

“The August reading represents a onemonth blip in what has been a long-term, gradual recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “On a year-over-year basis, single-family starts are up 9 percent while multifamily construction continues to level off at a solid level as that sector seeks to find a balance between supply and demand.”

Both housing sectors posted production declines in August. Single-family housing starts fell 6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 722,000 units while multifamily production declined 5.4 percent to 420,000 units.

Combined single- and multifamily starts increased in three of the four regions in August.

The Northeast, Midwest and West posted respective gains of 7.6 percent, 5.6 percent and

1.8 percent, respectively. The South registered a 14.8 percent decline.

Single-family permits rose 3.7 percent in August to a rate of 737,000 while multifamily permits dropped 7.2 percent to 402,000.

Permit issuance increased 5.1 percent in the Northeast, 4.2 percent in the Midwest and 0.7 percent in the West. Meanwhile, the South posted a loss of 3.4 percent.

Builder confidence surges Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in September jumped six points to 65 from a downwardly revised August reading of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the highest HMI level since October 2015.

“As household incomes rise, builders in many markets across the nation are reporting they are seeing more serious buyers, a positive sign that the housing market continues to move forward,” said Brady. “The single-family market continues to make gradual gains and we expect this upward momentum will build throughout the remainder of the year and into 2017.”

“With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident that if they can build more homes they can sell them,” said Dietz. “Though solid job creation

The Conference Board also reports the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home declined to 5.1%, from 6.9%. The share of respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home were 0.6% and 3.5%, respectively; the share of respondents who were “uncertain” whether they would buy a newly constructed or an existing home was 1.0%.

The Conference Board also reports the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home declined to 5.1%, from 6.9%. The share of respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home were 0.6% and 3.5%, respectively; the share of respondents who were “uncertain” whether they would buy a newly constructed or an existing home was 1.0%.

Despite the monthly volatility the trend in the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months has been steadily upward since the end of the recession. n

and low interest rates are also fueling demand, builders continue to be hampered by supply-side constraints that include shortages of labor and lots.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components moved higher in September. The component measuring current sales expectations rose six points to 71 and the gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to also stand at 71.

The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point gain to 48.

The three-month moving averages for HMI scores posted gains in three out of the four regions. The Northeast and South each registered a one-point gain to 42 and 64, respectively, while the West rose four points to 73. The Midwest was unchanged at 55. n Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.

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Job opportunities in construction growing

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s the NAHB celebrates Careers in Construction Month in October, builders around the country are seeking skilled craftsmen to help them build the American Dream.

The overall trend for open construction jobs has been increasing since the end of the Great Recession. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data and analysis by NAHB, there were 214,000 open construction sector jobs in July, which marks the second highest monthly count of open, unfilled jobs since May 2007.

“Residential construction offers a number of fulfilling career opportunities, from architects and engineers to carpenters, plumbers, electricians, painters and landscapers,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “Yet, our builders are telling us that access to skilled labor remains a top challenge.”

After many workers left the home building industry during the Great Recession to pursue employment in other sectors, not nearly enough of them have returned. This labor shortage can lead to delays in completing projects on time, which can increase the cost of building homes and make housing more expensive for consumers.

“As the housing industry continues to recover, we are focused on training more workers and leaders to fill these important roles,” said Brady.

NAHB’s educational partner, HBI, is a national leader for career training in the building industry. HBI offers educational programs in 41 states and the District of Columbia, reaching more than 13,000 students each year. These include more than 5,000 students in HBI’s pre-apprenticeship programs.

NAHB’s Student Chapters Program is another important component to preparing the next generation of building professionals. With 140 secondary, associate and four-year college chapters throughout the country, the program offers students first-hand exposure to the building industry through NAHB membership, educational programming and networking opportunities.

Educators, parents and students are encouraged to take a close look at the career opportunities available in residential construction and understand that a vocational education offers satisfying career paths and financial gains. Visit nahb.org or hbi.org to learn more. n October, 2016

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Woodridge Homes PRICE to be announced - 5,255 SQ. FT.

Builders: Ted Pratt, Jordan Vaughn | Designers: Amber Pratt, Kristen Vaughn, Jennifer Early

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Heritage Homes $1,349,000 - 5,303 SQ. FT.

Builders: Corey Craig, Randall Smith | Designer: Dana Dashiell

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Legend Homes SOLD - 4,763 SQ. FT.

Builder: Doug Herman | Designers: Jason Bradshaw, Bob Deal

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Arthur Rutenberg Homes PRICE to be announced - 4,545 SQ.FT.

Builders: Steve Ernst, J.R. Ernst | Designer: Kim LaQuire

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Wiesner Custom Homes $1,199,000 - 4,559 SQ. FT.

Builders: Jack Wiesner, Jock Wiesner | Designer: Tina Daniel

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Tennessee Valley Homes SOLD - 4,360 sq. ft.

Builder: Chris Franks | Designer: McClain Franks

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Britt Development Group PRICE to be announced - 4,900 SQ. FT.

Builder: Brian Layton | Designers: Sarah Britt, Catherine Rector, Tiffany Webb

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SPIKE REPORT Life Spikes

Eighteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of August 31, 2016.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 739 Terry Cobb 568 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 493 James Carbine 366 Jennifer Earnest 350 Trey Lewis 310 Kevin Hale 294 David Crane 284 Tonya Jones 271 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219 Davis Lamb 198 James Franks 195 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177

Jim McLean 164 Louise Stark 163 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 141 C.W. Bartlett 138 Sam Carbine 129 Tonya Alexander 128 Steve Hewlett 119 B.J. Hanson 114 Carmen Ryan 113 Jordan Clark 108 Dave McGowan 104 Johnny Watson 101 Julie DuPree 97 Duane Vanhook 92 Wiggs Thompson 91 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Helmut Mundt 77 John Zelenak 77 Erin Richardson 76 Michael Dillon 72 Jeff Slusher 70 John Baugh 68 Christina Cunningham 68 Don Bruce 62 Jim Ford, Jr. 62 Beth Sturm 60 Randall Smith 58 Lori Fisk-Conners 57 Hill McAlister 57 Justin Hicks 56 David Hughes 55 Joe Morgan 54 John Broderick 54 Gerald Bucy 53 Andrew Neuman 50 Al Davis 47

John Ganschow 47 Benny Sullivan 46 Ron Schroeder 45 Kay Russell 44 Marty Maitland 43 Peggy Krebs 40 David Lippe 38 Derenda Sircy 38 Andy Wyatt 37 Chuck Clarkson 36 Frank Miller 36 Brad Butler 35 Al Hacker 34 Ray Edwards 32 Keith Porterfield 28 Ricky Scott 27 Don Mahone 25 Spikes Ashley Crews 19 Frank Tyree 19 Jay Elisar 18 Rick Olszewski 15 Phillip Smith 13 Frank Jones 12 Gina Hewlett 10 Pam Smith 10 Don Alexander 9 Kenny Burd 9 Will Montgomery 9 Bob Bellenfant 7 Tonya Esquibel 6 McClain Franks 6 Rob Pease 6

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OCTOBER Calendar Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

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8 PARADE of HOMES Opens through the 23rd

MTSMC meeting PARADE of HOMES Preview Party

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Dickson County Chapter meeting

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PARADE of HOMES Last Day!

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Remodelers Council meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: Monday, October 17.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.

Next meeting: Wednesday, October 19.

Location and topic: to be announced.

Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Monday, October 24.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

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WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311 MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jody Derrick.

The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, October 6, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: to be announced.

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

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