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The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee
President Kelly Beasley
Vice President Eli Routh
Secretary/Treasurer Danny Clawson
Executive Vice President John Sheley
Editor and Designer Jim Argo
Staff
Connie Nicley Kim Grayson
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.
SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.
POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the slowest pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged 6.83% in May. Sales were particularly slow in the South, with the pace of sales down 21% in May.
“Housing affordability conditions have pushed more buyers to the sidelines, as reflected in our latest builder survey,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “Despite the use of builder sales incentives, including 37% of home builders reporting cutting prices in the recent NAHB survey, the housing market has slowed.”
“On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 3.2% lower thus far in 2025,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “As a result of slowing home sales conditions, inventory continues to rise, marking an elevated 9.8 months’ supply in May. Builders will be pulling back on construction in the months ahead due to this level of inventory.”
As estimated by NAHB, total months’ supply, a combination of current new and resale single-family inventory, now stands at 5.2.
This is the highest sales-adjusted inventory level since 2015 and Dietz noted this will place downward pressure on housing construction starts in the months ahead.
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 623,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.
New single-family home inventory continued to rise with 507,000 residences marketed for sale as of May. This is 1.4% higher than the previous month, and 8.1% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, the months’ supply for new homes stands at 9.8 compared to 8.5 a year ago.
The median new home sale price in May was $426,600, compared to $414,300 a year ago. This measure reflects the fact that higher income borrowers face fewer budget constraints than lower income prospective home buyers. New home sales priced below $500,000 were down 15% in May of 2025 compared to the May 2024.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 20.7% in the Northeast, 11.9% in the Midwest and 1.8% in the South. Sales are up 2.1% in the West. n
In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released recently. The index has only posted a lower reading twice since 2012 – in December 2022 when it hit 31 and in April 2020 at the start of the pandemic when it plunged more than 40 points to 30.
“Buyers are increasingly moving to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “To help address affordability concerns and bring hesitant buyers off the fence, a growing number of builders are moving to cut prices.”
Indeed, the latest HMI survey also re-
vealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure on a monthly basis in 2022. This compares with 34% of builders who reported cutting prices in May and 29% in April. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in June, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 62% in June, up one percentage point from May.
“Rising inventory levels and prospective home buyers who are on hold waiting for affordability conditions to improve are resulting in weakening price growth in most markets and generating price declines for resales in a growing number of markets,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given current market conditions, NAHB is forecasting a decline in single-family starts for 2025.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than
Asharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates.
Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The May reading of 1.26 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 0.4% to a 924,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 7.3% compared to May 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 29.7% to an annualized 332,000 pace.
On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are down 7.1%. In contrast, multifamily 5-plus unit starts are up 14.5% as more
prospective home buyers remain on the sidelines.
“Our latest builder survey shows that development and market conditions remain a major concern for builders, with consumer confidence lower and elevated interest rates for buyers and builders,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the NAHB. “Almost 40% of home builders reduced sales prices in the last month in order to offset difficult
35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points in June to a level of 35, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped two points lower to 40 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a twopoint decline to 21, the lowest reading since November 2023.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 43, the Midwest moved one point higher to 41, the South dropped three points to 33 and the West declined four points to 28. n
housing affordability conditions.”
“Single-family permits and construction starts are down on a year-to-date basis for 2025 for what has been a disappointing spring housing market, given ongoing elevated mortgage interest rates, challenging housing affordability conditions led by higher construction costs, and macroeconomic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB is forecasting that 2025 will end with a decline for single-family housing starts.”
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 21.1% higher in the Northeast, 10.8% higher in the Midwest, 6.8% lower in the South and 1.6% lower in the West.
Overall permits decreased 2% to a 1.39-million-unit annualized rate in May. Single-family permits decreased 2.7% to an 898,000-unit rate and are down 6.4% compared to May 2024. Multifamily permits decreased 0.8% to a 495,000 pace.
Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 17.2% lower in the Northeast, 6% higher in the Midwest, 5.4% lower in the South and 3.7% lower in the West. n
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r Afternoon Round ______ No. of players x $260.00 Add an additional $80 if you check the box below to purchase a Mulligan Packet r Check here to add $80 and purchase a Mulligan Packet for each player (each packet includes two (2) mulligans, one (1) extend-a-putt, and one (1) red tee per player on your foursome) Make checks payable to HBAMT; cc payment below* | HBAMT - 9007
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l Company name featured as headliner on all materials; w/signage
l Booth at registration, awards wrap-up & course hole
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l Eight (8) tickets to breakfast; eight to Lunch; eight to Wrap-up
l Company name featured as Lunch Sponsor on all material
l Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole
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l Four (4) tickets to Lunch; four to Wrap-up; two to Breakfast
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l Your booth will be breakfast ticket pick up point for all golfers
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l Single hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds
l Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole
l Signage at tournament provided
l Opportunity to hand out information & goodies
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l Booth at wrap-up & course hole
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l Signage at tournament provided
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l Hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds
l Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole
l Two (2) tickets to Lunch; two to wrap-up
l Hospitality cart with your name on it
l Ride cart handing out beverages & goodies both rounds
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l Two (2) tickets to Wrap-up; two to Lunch
Despite persistently high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a shortage of buildable lots, single-family starts rebounded in 2024, following two straight years of declines. According to the NAHBs’ analysis of the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC), a total of 1,009,315 new single-family units started construction nationwide. This is a 7% increase compared to 2023. Among the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic division led the nation with 344,313 starts in 2024, representing a 34% share. The second highest was the West South Central division at 187,690 starts, followed by the Mountain division with 125,911 starts. Collectively, these three divisions, covering 20 states and Washington, D.C., and representing approximately 41% of the United States, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total new single-family housing starts in 2024.
Meanwhile, there were 99,166 new single-family units started in the Pacific division (10% of total starts) and 81,106 in the East North Central division (8%) in 2024. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic, and New England, accounted for the remaining 17% of the total new single-family housing starts. Hardie Building Products for sponsoring the Builder's Bar. And of course, a big thanks to all the Spring Fling & Builders Show exhibitors and sponsors for making the event such a huge success
In 2024, seven out of nine divisions experienced year-over-year growth in single-family starts. The Middle Atlantic division had the strongest performance among all regions, posting a 22% annual increase. In addition, five out of nine divisions surpassed the U.S. growth rate of 7%. Conversely, both the East South Central and West South Central divisions recorded declines in single-family housing starts.
Compared to the previous year, the New England and West South Central divisions experienced a deceleration in growth, while the East South Central division marked its second consecutive year of decreases. In contrast, the
remaining six divisions reported an acceleration in growth. Despite regional disparities, the overall national trend in 2024 reflected a resilient housing market, even in the face of ongoing economic and supply-side challenges. n
The 2025 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke
THE PARADE PLAN BOOK
At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book
The Plan Book is a tremendous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over!
Plan Book Advertising Rates
Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) $960
Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) $1,440
Email jargo@hbamt.org for ad specs and availability.
If your company depends on new homes or related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2025 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke! Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.
Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhibit center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!
It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your show room the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys.
Exhibit Booth Price? $750
Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-popping kiosks and marketing publications!
2025 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM
Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Email: jargo@hbamt org
PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2025 Plan Book: r Half Page r Full Page r Page One r Inside Front r Inside Back r Back Cover
EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2025 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________
Twenty-four SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of May 31, 2025.
20 Big Spikes
Mitzi
CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Roy Miles
Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Mark Denney
Dickson County Chapter meetings are typically held on the third Thursday of the month.
Next meeting: Thursday, July 17th, 12:00 a.m. at Colton's Steak House - 2431 Highway 46 South Dickson, TN 37055. Topic: special guest Dickson Mayor Bob Rial. Free w/RSVP, Lunch = Dutch Treat (lunch free w/RSVP pending sponsorship)
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Sam Gray
Maury County Chapter meetings are typically held on the first Tuesday of the month.
Next meeting: to be announced. Meetings held at the Graymere County Club - 2100 Country Club Ln, Columbia, 38401 Topic: to be announced.
FREE w/RSVP pending sponsorship
$20 w/o RSVP
PLEASE RSVP to cnicley@hbamt.org
METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER
Chapter President - Lisa Underwood Metro/Nashville Chapter details are typically held on the fourth Thursday of the month.
Next meeting: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Robertson County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Joe Dalton
The Sumner County Chapter typically meets on the third Tuesday of the month. Next meeting: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Rachel Holloway
Williamson County Chapter meetings are typically held on the third Tuesday of the month. Next meeting: to be announced.
FREE w/RSVP pending sponsorship. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert
Wilson County Chapter meetings are typically held on the second Thursday of the month. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced.
FREE with RSVP pending sponsorship.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL
The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets at varying locations throughout the year.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to RMC meetings and events to: cnicley@hbamt.org
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL
Infill Builders Council meetings are typically held on the last Wednesday of the month.
Next meeting: to be announced.
FREE w/RSVP pending sponsorship. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Chuck Payne
The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month. Next meeting: Thursday, August 7th, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, 37027
Topic: to be announced.
SMC Member Free w/RSVP pending sponsorship. NON-SMC MEMBERS MUST RSVP and PAY: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP **HBAMT members must be a paid member of the Sales & Marketing Council in order to receive council rates**
RSVP REQUIRED DUE TO LIMITED SEATING RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
