The Nail, November, 2015

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Trey Lewis Vice President Randall Smith Secretary/Treasurer John Zelenak Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Pat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Housing recovery to pick up steam in 2016

The housing recovery will continue in 2016 but will still face challenges according to economists who participated in last month’s NAHB Fall Construction Forecast Webinar.

11 Parade of Homes wraps up successful show at Sherwood Green Estates

The 2015 Parade of Homes concluded Sunday, October 25 following a busy, award-filled two-week run at the Nolensville community.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 November Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: Don’t miss the next busy night scheduled at the HBAMT. The 2016 General Elections will be held Tuesday, November 10 in conjunction with the Annual Chili Cook-off. The festivities kick-off at 4:00 p.m. so don’t be late!

More details on pages 8 and 10 of this issue.

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The Metro/Nashville and Williamson County Chapters held a joint meeting last month at the HBAMT offices. Joe Valley, standing, delivered a presentation about the services provided by Nashville Electric Service (NES) for those in attendance.

New home sales drop 11.5 percent in September

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ales of newly built, single-family homes fell 11.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 units in September, according to newly released data from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Despite this monthly drop, our members continue to tell us that housing is moving in the right direction,” said Tom Woods, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo.

Despite the drop, new home sales year-to-date numbers are up 17.6 percent compared to the same period in 2014.

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“Consumers may have simply been reacting to soft job numbers.”

“It is not surprising to see sales pull back in September following a strong August reading, especially after a few months of weak job creation,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, new-home sales year-todate are up 17.6 percent compared to the same period of 2014, and we expect the market to continue improving at a gradual but steady pace for the rest of year.”

Regionally, new-home sales were down across the board. Sales fell 61.8 percent in the Northeast, 8.3 percent in the Midwest, 8.7 percent in the South and 6.7 percent in the West.

The inventory of new homes for sale was 225,000 units in September. This is a 5.8-month supply at the current sales pace. n

Ray Khayatt from Coldwell Banker Barnes lead an expert panel in a discussion about cultural diversity at the Sales and Marketing Council’s May meeting. A big thanks to FirstBank and Coleman American Moving Services for sponsoring the meeting.

An informative “Managing Emotional Home Owners” webinar was held May 6 at the HBAMT. The educational event was hosted and sponsored by the Remodelers Council.

Housing markets continue to recover at a modest pace

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arkets in 79 of the approximately 360 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity in the third quarter of 2015, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI) released today. This represents a yearover-year net gain of 17 markets.

The index’s nationwide score edged up to .93, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 93 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 69 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.

“Housing markets are improving gradually as the economy strengthens and job creation continues,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder and developer from Blue Springs, Mo. “In especially encouraging news, markets most affected by the downturn posted the largest year-over-year increases in their LMI score. This shows that the recovery is taking hold in those areas.”

“The employment metric of the LMI is making solid gains, with the number of metros that reached or surpassed their norms rising by 32 in a year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Single-family permits keep inching forward, but remain at only 47 percent of normal activity, and continue to be the sluggish component of the index.”

“The number of markets on this quarter’s LMI at or above 90 percent has risen to 175 — almost half of all markets nationwide,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company, which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This is a strong indicator that the overall housing market continues to make headway, and bodes well for the rest of the year.”

Baton Rouge, La. continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.53 – or 53 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Austin, Texas; Honolulu; Houston; and Oklahoma City.

RMI posts tenth straight quarter in positive territory

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he NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 57 in the third quarter of 2015, two points below the previous quarter. However, this is the tenth straight quarter it has been above the key breakeven point of 50.

An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of

future remodeling activity. The RMI was 64 in the Northeast, 58 in the Midwest, 56 in the South and 61 in the West.

“The sustained confidence of remodelers shows that the remodeling market is gradually strengthening in what has been a longer than anticipated recovery,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Robert Criner, GMR, GMB, CAPS, a remodeler from Newport News, Va. “Smaller jobs remain more popular, but overall remodelers feel positive about the future of the industry.”

Rounding out the top 10 are San Jose, Calif.; Los Angeles; Charleston, S.C.; Nashville, Tenn; and Salt Lake City.

Looking at smaller metros, both Midland and Odessa, Texas, have LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Manhattan, Kan.; Casper, Wyo.; and Grand Forks, N.D.; respectively.

The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison.

The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity. n

At 58, the RMI’s future market conditions index was unchanged from the previous quarter. Among its four components, backlog of jobs rose to 60 from 58 while calls for bids and appointments for proposals—at 57 and 58, respectively—each dropped three points from the previous quarter’s readings. The amount of work committed for the next three months held steady from the previous quarter at 55.

The current market conditions index declined three points to 56 this quarter. Among its components, major additions and alterations, the slowest-recovering component, fell to 52 from 57 in the previous quarter. The smaller remodeling projects and home maintenance and repair components of the RMI decreased four and two points to 57 and 58, respectively.

“An RMI above 50 indicates that remodelers still feel positive about the market on balance, and it is an indication of the housing recovery that this quarter’s RMI reading is the tenth straight quarter in positive territory,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The increased backlog of remodeling jobs highlights the continuing labor shortages that hinder production, especially of large additions and alterations, and make it difficult to complete projects in a timely manner.”

For more information about remodeling, visit nahb.org/remodel. n

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Housing recovery to pick up steam in 2016

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teady employment and economic growth, pent-up demand, affordable home prices and attractive mortgage rates will keep the housing market on a gradual upward trend in 2016. However, persistent headwinds related to shortages and availability of lots and labor, along with rising materials prices are impeding a more robust recovery, according to economists who participated in the NAHB’s Fall Construction Forecast Webinar.

“This recovery is all about jobs,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “If people can get good jobs that pay decent incomes, the housing market will continue to move forward.”

The good news, Crowe added, is that total U.S. employment of 142 million is now well above the previous peak of 138 million that occurred in 2008.

The one caveat is that job growth has been concentrated heavily in the service sector, which tends to pay lower wages than goods producing jobs.

Meanwhile, home equity has nearly doubled since 2011 and now stands at $12.5 trillion.

“The single biggest asset in most people’s portfolio is the home they own,” said Crowe. “That’s important because the primary purchasers of new

homes are the sellers of existing homes. The more equity they have, the more comfortable they feel about purchasing a new home.”

And while mortgage interest rates are expected to rise over the near-term, averaging 4.5 percent in 2016 and 5.5 percent in 2017, Crowe said this is not expected to have an impact on the housing recovery. “As the economy gets better, job and wage growth should keep pace. So even though mortgage rates will rise, they will still be low by historical standards and very affordable.”

Supply Headwinds Crowe noted several factors that are hindering a more robust recovery. Citing an NAHB survey of its members, 13 percent of builders reported the cost and availability of labor was a significant problem in 2011 and that concern jumped to 61 percent in 2014.

About one-fifth of builders shared the same concerns regarding lots in 2011 and that ratio shot up to 58 percent in 2014.

Concerns over building materials stood at 58 percent among builders in 2014, up from 33 percent in 2011.

Single-Family Continues to Post Gains Turning to the forecast, NAHB is projecting 719,000 single-family starts in 2015, up 11 percent from the 647,000 units produced last year. Single-family production is projected to increase an additional 27 percent in 2016 to 914,000 units.

On the multifamily side, production ran at 354,000 units last year, slightly above the 331,000 level that is considered a normal level of production. Multifamily starts are expected to rise 9 percent to 387,000 units this year and post a modest 3 percent decline to 378,000 units in 2016.

Residential remodeling activity is forecasted to increase 6.8 percent in 2015 over last year and rise an additional 6.1 percent in 2016.

Suburbs are Still Hot Looking at home buyer preferences, Trulia Housing Economist Ralph McLaughlin said that contrary to popular belief, millennials prefer to own a home in the suburbs rather than rent in the cities.

“Many believe that home buyers are bucking the trend of previous generations (continued on page 17)

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LANDMARK HOMES WINS BIG DURING 2015 PARADE OF HOMES Kara Blalock and Lauren Blalock from REFRESH and Nick Wisniewski from Landmark Homes of Tennessee accept their “Best of Show” award from Parade of Homes Chairman David Crane during the Parade Preview Party Thursday, October 8 at Sherwood Green Estates.

The builder and design team took home 6 of the 14 awards presented that night, and would perform even better during the presentation of the People’s Choice Awards a week later (see page 12 for complete listings). Congratulations Kara, Lauren and Nick!

Kara Blalock, Lauren Blalock and Nick Wisniewski accept the Best of Show Award from David Crane.

Parade of Homes ends award-winning run

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he 2015 Parade of Homes at Sherwood Green Estates in Nolensville concluded a successful two-week run last month enjoying big crowds who were wowed by the work and creativity of the partipating builders and designers. Awards presented before and during the Parade recognized their efforts, beginning with the Preview Party where Landmark Homes of Tennessee and REFRESH took home “Best of Show.”

A week later, following the collection of ballots cast by Parade attendees, Landmark builder Nick Wisniewski and the REFRESH team of Kara Blalock and Lauren Blalock would also receive the People’s Choice

“Best of Show” award during a live remote on Jack FM. The builder and design team took home many of the awards during the show and a complete listing of all the winners can be found on page 12 of this issue.

Arnold Homes and Julie McCoy Interiors followed up their “Best of Show” wins at the 2014 Parade with another stunning showing that earned them several of this year’s awards.

Regent Homes, who successfully took on the daunting task of entering two Parade homes with the help of designer Anthea Click, took home four awards. Of note, the team won “Most Livable and “Best Front Elevation” honors at both the Preview Party and People’s Choice Awards. n

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Best of Show Awards Presented at the Pewview Party

People’s Choice Awards Determined by votes cast by Parade attendees

Best Front Elevation Regent Homes

Best Front Elevation Regent Homes

Best Landscaping Arnold Homes

Best Landscaping Arnold Homes

Best Outdoor Living Area Regent Homes & Fresh Perspectives

Best Outdoor Living Area Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Craftsmanship Landmark Homes

Craftsmanship Landmark Homes

Best Floor Plan Landmark Homes

Best Floor Plan Landmark Homes

Best Foyer Arnold Homes & Julie McCoy Interiors

Best Foyer Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Draperies Arnold Homes & Julie McCoy Interiors

Best Draperies Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Home Theater Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Home Theater Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Most Livable Regent Homes & Fresh Perspectives

Most Livable Regent Homes & Fresh Perspectives

Best Child’s Room Regent Homes & Fresh Perspectives

Best Child’s Room Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Master Suite Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Master Suite Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Kitchen Arnold Homes & Julie McCoy Interiors

Best Kitchen Arnold Homes & Julie McCoy Interiors

Best Interior Decorating Landmark Homes & REFRESH

Best Interior Decorating Landmark Homes & REFRESH

BEST OF SHOW Landmark Homes & REFRESH

BEST OF SHOW Landmark Homes & REFRESH

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Randy Arnold and Julie McCoy accept one of the Arnold Homes’ awards from David Crane.

Craig Hudgens and Brandon Rickman accept Regent Homes “Best Outdoor Living Area” award from Crane.

David McGowan, Nolensville Mayor Jimmy Alexander & Rick Blackburn.

Randy Arnold & parents .

Gary Wisniewski & Nick Wisniewski.

David McGowan III, Roxane McGowan and David McGowan.

HBAMT President Trey Lewis emcees.

Craig Hudgens, Brandon Rickman & David McGowan III

Preview Party entertainment

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2015 So you think you make the world’s best chili (or soup)? Then put your chili-pot where your mouth isl

Tues, Nov 10th

All chill/soup must be made from scratch at the HBAMT (you may cut and pack ingredients prior to arriving). Each team will be given an 8’x8’ space/table.

Each chef must supply all their ingredients & cooking source. Chef’s can start cooking at 10 AM and must be ready for judging by 3 PM. You must cook at least 2 gallons.

Three (3) celebrity chefs will determine the winners and present trophies for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. At 4 PM fellow members will begin tasting your creations & casting secret ballots to vote for the winner of the “Members Choice” award.

Complete this form and return it to (fax) 377-1077 or (email) cnicley@hbamt.net to register*.

Your name: ________________________________________ Company: _________________________________________ Email: ___________________ Phone: ___________________ Team name: ________________________________________

*All team entries and chefs must be members of your company or the HBAMT. Companies may enter multiple teams and are allowed to merge with other HBAMT members to form teams.

Sponsored by:

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SPIKE REPORT Life Spikes

Sixteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2015.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 706 Terry Cobb 567 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 448 James Carbine 342 Jennifer Earnest 342 Dan Stern 306 Kevin Hale 287 Tonya Jones 271 David Crane 267 Reese Smith III 261 Trey Lewis 251 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219 Davis Lamb 193 Jackson Downey 174 Tim Ferguson 174

(continued from page 9) in that they want to live in urban areas and want to rent,” said McLaughlin. “What we are finding from our surveys is just the opposite. Among millennial renters, almost 90 percent say they eventually want to purchase a home. That is significantly higher than Gen Xers, who were hurt by the recession, and quite a bit more than current baby boomer renters, who are at 40 percent.”

However, an overwhelming majority of millennials, who are still starting households and paying off college debt, say it will be at least two years before they are ready to buy.

Roughly half of all Americans prefer to live in suburban areas, about a quarter prefer urban areas and just over 20 percent prefer rural communities, according to a Trulia survey conducted last November.

“As we get into the recovery, suburban areas are growing faster than urban areas,” said McLaughlin.

“That is a sign that the urbanization trend we saw start to happen at the beginning of the recovery was more of a blip rather than a new rule.”

Moreover, the percentage of households living in urban neighborhoods in 2013 was lower among nearly all age groups compared to 2000.

“So again, this shows there really isn’t an urbanization trend among households,” said McLaughlin.

Over the past five years, the share of searches on Trulia in suburban-urban zip code areas has held fairly constant, at roughly a

Jim McLean 164 Louise Stark 163 James Franks 159 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 Tonya Alexander 128 Sam Carbine 125 Steve Hewlett 119 Carmen Butner 108 B.J. Hanson 105 Dave McGowan 102 Johnny Watson 101 Julie DuPree 97 Jordan Clark 89 Duane Vanhook 89 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Erin Richardson 76 Wiggs Thompson 73 Jeff Slusher 70 John Baugh 68 Michael Dillon 63 Don Bruce 62 Jim Ford, Jr. 62 Beth Sturm 59 Hill McAlister 57 Joe Morgan 54 John Broderick 53 Gerald Bucy 53 Lori Fisk-Conners 53 David Hughes 51 Al Davis 47 Andrew Neuman 46 Benny Sullivan 46 John Ganschow 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Kay Russell 44

four-to-one-ratio for suburban searches.

“Home buyers are saying they prefer modern and modest sized homes in the suburbs with amenities,” he said, adding that 44 percent of Americans say they want to live in a house between 1,400 and 2,600 square feet.

Recovery in All Regions, but Pace Varies Delving below the national numbers, NAHB Senior Economist Robert Denk said that housing market conditions are improving in all regions, but the pace of recovery continues to vary by state and region.

“We’ve gotten to the point in the recovery where we no longer have problems that came with the housing bust,” said Denk. “It now is really a matter of housing markets reconnecting to the fundamental drivers, and that is employment. Production has been rebounding in all regions, prices have been moving up and new

Christina Cunningham 43 Peggy Krebs 40 David Lippe 38 Andy Wyatt 37 Chuck Clarkson 36 Frank Miller 36 Brad Butler 35 Al Hacker 34 Ray Edwards 32 Dan Strebel 32 Steve Wheeley 30 Alvin Basel 29 Justin Hicks 28 Derenda Sircy 27 Randall Smith 26 Spikes Marty Maitland 23 John Zelenak 21 Don Mahone 20 Frank Tyree 16 Don Alexander 9 Gina Hewlett 9 Ron Schroeder 9 Ricky Scott 9 Ashley Crews 8 Keith Porterfield 6

foreclosures are back to more normal levels.”

Using the 2000-2003 period as a healthy benchmark when single-family starts averaged 1.3 million units on an annual basis, NAHB is projecting that single-family production, which bottomed out at an average 27 percent of normal production in early 2009, will rise to 74 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2016 and climb to 91 percent of normal by the end of 2017. Single-family production currently stands at 53% of normal activity.

The hardest hit areas during the downturn were a combination of the bubble states – California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida – and the industrial Midwest. The bubble states had the most excessive price and production spikes, while the problems in the Midwest were more related to fundamental economic weakness.

The most successful recoveries are happening now in the energy states, including North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, Montana and Louisiana.

Other states exhibiting strong employment and housing growth include South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, Idaho, Oregon and North Carolina.

In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2017, the top 40 percent of states will be back to 99 percent or more of normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 73 percent.

“Keep in mind that with all of these buckets, the numbers keep getting higher,” said Denk. “There is broad-based improvement across the country.” n November, 2015

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NOVEMBER Calendar Sunday

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Thursday

Friday

Saturday

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General Elections & Chili Cook-off

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Dickson County Chapter meeting

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Remodelers Council Meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: Monday, November 16.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m..

Next meeting: Monday, November 23.

Builders free pending sponsorship.

Price: $20 per person with RSVP ($25 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

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COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.

Next meeting: Wednesday, November 18.

Location: the HBAMT. Topic: “Codes Update,” with Terry Cobb.

Meeting sponsored by Will Jones and Tennessee Professional Inspections, LLC Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311 MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Derenda Sircy.

The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, December 3.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

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