The Nail, May 2018

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 1

2 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 3

4 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 5

THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Keith Porterfield Vice President Justin Hicks Secretary/Treasurer David Hughes Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Charlotte Fischer THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

6 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

FEATURES 11 Millennials leading the growth in home buyers Millennials homeownership rate registers largest gains among all groups.

12 Great Gatsby themed Membership Mixer

The SMC sponsored, “Great Gatsby� themed Membership Mixer was great fun last month at The Standard in Nashville.

16 2018 HBAMT Golf Event sponsorship opportunities

The annual HBAMT golf event is set for this August. Sign up now as a sponsor and take part in all the fun while promoting your business!

DEPARTMENTS

Advertise in

THE

NAIL

8 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 May Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

ON THE COVER: New home ownership growth spurred by Millennial buyers. See story page eleven.

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 7

news&info

Builder confidence in solid territory, down one point in April

B

uilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a level of 69 in April on the National Association of Home Builders/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) but remains on firm ground.

“Strong demand for housing is keeping builders optimistic about future market conditions,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “However, builders are facing supply-side constraints, such as a lack of buildable lots and increasing construction material costs. Tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are pushing up prices and hurting housing affordability.”

“Ongoing employment gains, rising wages and favorable demographics should spur demand for single-family homes in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The minor dip in builder confidence this month is likely due to winter weather ef-

Employment gains and rising wages should spur demand for single-family homes in the months ahead.

8 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

fects, which may be slowing housing activity in some pockets of the country. As we head into the spring home buying season, we can expect the market to continue to make gains at a gradual pace.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging buyer traffic held steady at 51, the chart measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell a single point to 77, and the component gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 75.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South remained unchanged at 73, the Northeast fell one point to 55, the Midwest declined two points to 66, and the West dropped three points to 76. n

Study shows steady gains in construction employment

A

new construction employment analysis from the NAHB shows that 9.8 million people worked in construction in 2016, and more than 3.8 million of them worked in residential construction. These numbers reflect modest but steady job gains since 2011, when construction employment bottomed out.

However, employment levels remain below the peaks reached during the housing boom in 2006, when more than 11 million worked in construction, and home building employed more than 5 million people.

“While it is promising to see that construction employment is on the rise, it is still far below where we need to be to meet the increasing demand for housing,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “We will continue to push for programs and policies that address the labor shortage, such as workforce development initiatives and comprehensive immigration reform.”

The analysis also shows the number of building jobs across states and congressional districts.

California tops the nation in employment of residential construction workers—more than half a million residents worked in home building in 2016. This number is still down significantly from the 2006 peak of 788,000, though. Despite being one of the states most severely affected by the housing downturn, Florida comes in second with 361,000 residential construction workers.

Among the states hardest hit by the housing downturn and slowest to recover home building jobs are New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona, which still show job losses of 46, 43, and 41

percent, respectively, compared to 2006. Despite these significant job losses, home building in Nevada and Arizona continues to employ a relatively high share of local workers—more than 3 percent of the employed labor force.

NAHB’s analysis indicates that the average congressional district has more than 8,800 residents working in residential construction, but that number is often significantly higher. For example, in Montana’s single congressional district, close to 20,600 residents are in home building. Colorado’s 7th district, which incorporates parts of the Denver-Aurora metro area, and Florida’s 19th district, which serves an area on the west coast from Fort Myers to Marco Island, come in second and third with more than 18,000 employed in home building.

NAHB estimates of residential construction employment by state and congressional district are based on two main sources of data: the American Community Survey from the Census Bureau and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These estimates include self-employed workers, who constitute approximately a quarter of the labor force of the sector. Read the full study on HousingEconomics.com. n

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 9

10 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

Millennials leading the growth of home buyers Millennials homeownership rate registers largest gains among all groups.

R

ecent data from the Census Bureau confirms that millennials are increasingly entering the housing market as first-time buyers.

The homeownership rate of millennials—now at 36 percent—registered the largest gains among all age groups in 2017.

As the nation’s largest demographic group, more than 70 million millennials are poised to dominate the home buying market in the months and years ahead.

“Millennials are recognizing the benefits of homeownership and are eager to buy their first homes,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “And contrary to conventional wisdom, this generation is in the market for single-family homes in the suburbs as they

look ahead to raising their families.”

Home builders recognize the changing demographics and the increasing demand for entry-level homes. Yet rising construction costs and limited lot availability create significant challenges to building smaller, single-family detached homes that are both affordable to first-time buyers and cost-effective for builders.

With millennials willing to compromise on space, townhouses are offering a more affordable option for younger buyers ready to purchase their first homes. After experiencing a drop during the Great Recession, the share of new townhome construction has been rising since 2009. According to NAHB analysis of Census data, townhome

construction in 2017 was up seven percent from 2016.

Millennials also are looking for homes with three bedrooms and two bathrooms, outdoor space, flexible areas that can be used for a variety of purposes and more luxurious finishes, like quartz countertops.

Ongoing economic growth and rising wages are expected to continue boosting housing demand throughout 2018. NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey shows that the number of home owner households increased by 1.5 million in 2017, while the number of renter households declined by 76,000. n

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 11

Great Gatsby Membership Mixer!

SMC hosted mixer big fun at The Standard in Nashville last month!

Great Gatsby theme makes for Great Mixer! The SMC hosted a Membership Mixer at The Standard in Nashville last month. The event drew a huge crowd as members enjoyed the “roaring 20’s” outfits and ballroom. A big thanks to all our sponsors (shown on page 15): Ferguson; Avenue Homes; Bell Law Settlement Services; Celebration Homes; DalTile; Franklin American Mortgage; Goodall Homes; InterLinc Mortgage Services; James Hardie; Lowry Insurance; Metro Carpets; Paran Homes; Pulley & Associates; and ReMax Elite - Tammy Chambers. n

12 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 13

14 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 15

16 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

SPIKE REPORT

Twenty-six SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of March 31, 2018.

Top 20 Big Spikes Mitzi Spann Terry Cobb Jim Fischer John Whitaker Trey Lewis James Carbine Jennifer Earnest David Crane Kevin Hale Reese Smith III James Franks Steve Moody Davis Lamb Jackson Downey

761 570 566 548 399 384 363 305 299 261 240 219 203 182

Tim Ferguson Jim McLean Louise Stark Harry Johnson Steve Cates C.W. Bartlett Sam Carbine

177 164 163 146 142 138 134

Life Spikes Tonya Esquibel Steve Hewlett B.J. Hanson Jordan Clark Carmen Ryan Dave McGowan Randall Smith John Zelenak Wiggs Thompson Duane Vanhook Helmut Mundt Michael Dillon Christina Cunningham David Hughes Erin Richardson Lori Fisk-Conners Justin Hicks Beth Sturm Don Bruce Marty Maitland John Broderick Joe Morgan

133 119 118 116 115 107 107 102 99 98 93 92 79 78 77 68 67 63 62 59 54 54

Keith Porterfield Ron Schroeder Andrew Neuman John Ganschow Derenda Sircy Bryan Edwards Ricky Scott Ashley Crews Jody Derrick Phillip Smith Rick Olszewski Don Mahone Frank Tyree Steve Shalibo

53 52 50 49 48 44 41 40 38 38 30 28 27 26

Spikes Jay Elisar 19 Frank Jones 17 John Burns 16 Kenny Burd 10 Perry Pratt 10 Will Montgomery 10 Rob Pease 10 Bob Bellenfant 8 Stacy DeSoto 7 Kim Carman 6 McClain Franks 6 Jim McCann 6

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 17

MAY Calendar Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

1

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

3

2

Saturday

4

5

Sales & Marketing Council meeting

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

24

25

26

Remodelers Council meeting

21

20

22

23

Dickson County Chapter meeting

Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

27

28

29

30

31

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: Monday, May 21.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, May 24. The chapter will meet on 5/24 this month in lieu of Memorial Day. Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261

18 The NAIL

l

May, 2018

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: Wednesday, May 16.

Location: Ferguson.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free for RMC members with RSVP pending sponsorship; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265 - or to cnicley@hbamt.org MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Ashley Crews.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, May 3, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: “Lights, Camera, Action!” Don’t miss part three of this year’s “Marketing Yourself and Your Business” series!

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

May, 2018

l

The NAIL 19

20 The NAIL

l

May, 2018