The Luxury Report | October 2025 Real Estate Market | Montecito/Hope Ranch/Santa Barbara
Point Beach | Summerland CA
Loon
Hello
Everyone -
As we turn the corner into Autumn, the South Santa Barbara County residential real estate market remains resilient and we would be delighted to connect if you are considering a move to our special slice of coastal paradise!
We are all aware of the remarkable peak in real estate prices during the pandemic and real estate felt like a rocket ship. Aggressive bidding wars, cash flying around and homes selling off market or during the first few days. While much of this has cooled, what we have now is trending toward a more balanced and stable market. Buyers seem to have the upper hand in this market due to rising inventory levels and more price reductions than we have seen over the past few years. Interestingly, the number of sales has not skyrocketed as expected and many buyers are watching on the sidelines or making more careful decisions. Read on for more insight—
KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE:
SOLD PRICE | The median sales price is moderating at $2,362,230 for Single Family Homes (SFH) during Q3 2025. The first 3 months/Q1 of 2025 drove the median price up to $2,795,000 for SFH as a result of some ultra high sales.
INVENTORY | The available homes for sale is at 3.91 Months of Inventory, a record high since 2019.
TOTAL SALES | The number of transactions is not surging with this increased inventory. September sales of 113 transactions is almost exactly the same as August’s 112 transactions and well below pre-pandemic normals.
PRICE CHANGES/DOM | We are seeing more price reductions with the days on market increasing each week.
LUXURY MARKET | Only 3 homes traded over $10M in September, one off market in Hope Ranch at $25M, but pending sales show some potential eye-popping transactions in our future. In Montecito, Q1 had a strong showing with 68 transactions while Q2 and Q3 leveled off to 48 and 49 respectively. Regardless, this segment remains strong.
INSURANCE | This is on the radar since it has become a significant part of the economics of the total home decision. Properties in the extreme high fire areas are showing signs of declining value because of the difficulties in California. We stay on top of this and have a list of reputable insurance brokers to help you navigate this ever changing segment to ensure you get optimal coverage at the best possible rate.
BUYERS | Local dynamics matter a lot and there are still good values out there if you know where to look. It's a fluid market and activity differs neighborhood to neighborhood and home to home. Now more than ever, it is important to have extensive market knowledge when making real estate decisions. We are seeing buyers gravitate towards homes that are “finished” and don’t need a large remodel project. Our focus is on finding investment grade properties for our clients that increase or at a minimum hold their value, regardless of market conditions.
SELLERS | Sellers are having to adjust their expectations in this market and that’s where we come in! We can expertly help you prepare your home for sale and price it competitively the FIRST time to attract enthusiastic buyers so you benefit from the best and highest price possible. Pricing your home correctly matters. Listing too high often brings the seller a disappointing lower sold price. Homes that are not priced correctly are lingering on the market or being overlooked, while homes priced properly are still getting multiple offers. Check out our Compass 3-Phase Marketing Plan to maximize the return on your real estate investment.
In this highly competitive market—experience matters. We offer extensive market knowledge, world-class marketing and concierge level professional service with complete confidentiality to our clients. Our proven track record of success includes skills necessary to put complicated deals together and negotiate the price and terms that will get your home sold for a premium price and your offer accepted on your replacement property— even amongst multiple offers.
Looking for professional + creative results-oriented representation reach out for a confidential conversation and strategic marketing plan. Let’s Talk!
Randy and Molly
NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED /
RealTrends
VERIFIED RANKINGS 2025
“We are delighted and honored to be recognized as one of the TOP AGENTS in the Montecito area on Los Angeles Magazine’s 2025 All Stars List and the RealTrends Verified Rankings for 2025. It would be our pleasure to include you and your family as one of our valued clients and new friends ! Please reach out for a confidential conversation about your real estate goals!
- Randy Haden and Molly Haden
Thank you to our valued clients for helping us achieve this tremendous milestone of being included in the RealTrends Verified Rankings!
We are honored to be recognized as one of the top-performing teams in the country. This group includes the most influential leaders in real estate, including top teams, brokerage executives and industry trailblazers, We are incredibly grateful for the continued trust in our expertise and your loyalty to our business. Our client's support make it possible for us to provide a seamless and successful experience to anyone looking to embark on their own real estate journey. Please reach out to discuss the current market and what your 2025 real estate plans are.
/ AWARD WINNING RESULTS
Los Angeles Magazine
REAL ESTATE ALL STARS
With tens of thousands of real estate agents working in Los Angeles and surrounding communities, choosing the right one can be a daunting task. Buying a home shouldn’t be as stressful as driving a car without brakes, which is why we commissioned Professional Research Services to contact residential real estate companies—big and small—in the region and collect the names of its top performing agents within a 12-month period. A home purchase of this significance no longer needs to be a gamble. Peace of mind is the least we can offer. Making your house a home is up to you!
BARBARA
25 Year Trend | 2003—2025
68% TOTAL OCTOBER 2025 ALL CASH
50 of the 135 Total Sales
$3,074,572
$1,895,000
31% TOTAL OCTOBER 2025 OFF MARKET
23 of the 135 Total Sales
12% TOTAL OCTOBER 2025 SALES OVER $10M 9 of the 135 Total Sales
INSIGHT | There are still Good Values out there and we can help you sort through the increased inventory to find Investment Grade properties, in desirable areas that will continue to be a good decision Regardless of which way the market trends .
- let's talkRANDY/MOLLY
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
YTD REPORT 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +11% change over 2024
1156
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+12% change over 2024
843
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +4 % change over 2024
$3,700,844
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% change over 2024
$2,330,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+7% change over 2024
313
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +10% change over 2024
$1,387,840
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +8% change over 2024
$1,075,000
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
OCTOBER
2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +19% change over 2024
135
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL OCTOBER SALES
+15% change over 2024
100
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +60% change over 2024
$4,607,065
MEDIAN SALES PRICE 0% change over 2024
$2,117,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
73
SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE
89%
52 - south -
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL OCTOBER SALES +35% change over 2024
35 AVERAGE SALES PRICE -17% change over 2024
$1,311,720
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -20% change over 2024
$980,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE
93%
- southSANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes estates | puds | (excludes condos) -
SALES VOLUME | INTEREST RATE ANALYSIS
22 Year Trend | 2003—2025 October YTD Sales 1156
- south -
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes estates | puds | (excludes condos)ACTIVE LISTINGS
+ SOLD ANALYSIS
YTD Totals | 2018—2025
INSIGHT | Could Inventory and Sales Be Moving Toward a More Normalized Market - Or Is This Just be a Moment in Time?
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
RECOMMENDED AVAILABLE PROPERTIES
- LISTED WITHIN THE IN PAST 35 DAYS -
Our carefully curated Compass Collection includes properties we consider to be exceptional, excellent investments and/or good values - call/text/email for details or a private showing.
OCTOBER
PROPERTY
COLLECTION
Connect and stay ahead of the market. Get in touch for a list of the most up to date inventory—including Compass Private Exclusives (off market) and Coming Soon homes that are not available on public search sites.
Properties featured are courtesy of the Santa Barbara MLS. They may be listed by brokers and/or agents other than Compass or Haden Homes Luxury Property Group.
LUXURY MARKET OCTOBER + YTD 2025
The demand for Ultra Luxury estate homes in our beautiful coastal community remains robust, as affluent buyers from around the globe are drawn to Montecito Hope Ranch, Carpinteria and Santa Barbara.
LUXURY MARKET REVIEW | In 2024, 33 homes traded over $10M which 12 of these traded over $20M with the highest sale of 2024 at 2781 Padaro Lane for $96M. The Ultra Luxury trend continues through 2025, bypassing 2024 with 45 properties trading over $10M through October which 14 traded for $20M or more—a 60% increase over the 28 properties during the same time 2024. Of the 45 properties closed this year over $10M, 33 are in Montecito, 8 in Hope Ranch, 2 in Carpinteria, 1 in Santa Barbara and 1 in Goleta.
October was the standout month for Montecito with a remarkable total sales volume of $283,074,249 for the 23 closed sales. This included a new record high at 700 Picacho Lane for $57,250,000. This was not the only eye-popping sale to record this month—we saw a total of 9 properties close over $12M and 4 of them over $20M, including 1545 East Valley Road for $47,590,000, 465 Hot Springs Road for $32M and 1435 East Mountain Drive for $22.5M.
SALES and PRICE | In Montecito, the number of October sales is up 50% over October 2024 and the median sold price also increased 28% to $7,000,000, We feel the median price is a better indicator since one Ultra Luxury sale can artificially elevate the average sold price.
MONTECITO CASH SALES YTD | Enthusiastic buyers are undeterred by interest rates evidenced by 59% of homes (111 of the 188 total YTD sales) in Montecito trading for all cash so far in 2025. While much has been said about the impact of high interest rates on residential sales, stock market sentiment holds more weight for many high-net-worth clients.
MONTECITO OFF-MARKET ACTIVITY | Off-market deals are still thriving as evidenced by 35 of 188 homes (19%) in Montecito trading off market YTD. We have been successful in putting many deals together privately by networking extensively with other top agents and being “in the know” when a homeowner prefers a quieter sale.
- 2025 Sales ListULTRA LUXURY
Demand for Ultra-Luxury Estate Homes Remains Robust, as Affluent Buyers from Around the Globe are Drawn to Montecito and Santa Barbara for our Exceptional Climate, Outdoor Activities, Privacy, Safety and Vibrant Community.
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +38% change over 2024 (136 YTD Sales)
188
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +33% change over 2024
160
AVERAGE SALES PRICE 3% change over 2024
$8,200,269
MEDIAN SALES PRICE 10% change over 2024
$6,192,500
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +75% change over 2024
28
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -8% change over 2024
$3,291,121
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -11% change over 2024
$2,875,000
88 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 91% YTD SOLD DOLLAR VOLUME +24% Change over 2024 $1,404,194,388
- homes estates | puds | condosOCTOBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 23
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+114% change over 2024
$12,307,576
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+28% change over 2024
$7,000,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
700 Picacho Lane Montecito CA 93109
$57,250,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 1220 Coast Village Road, #106 Santa Barbara CA 93108
$1,500,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
143 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 86%
MONTECITO OCTOBER 2025
23 TRANSACTIONS
OCTOBER 2025 TOTAL SALES 23 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions
$283,074,249
$7,469,119
$5,700,000
MONTECITO
- homes estates | puds | condos -
10 Year Trend | 2015—YTD 2025
VIEW PROPERTY VIDEO
2891 HIDDEN VALLEY LANE | MONTECITO
Where Epic Ocean Views Meet Stunning Mountain Vistas | Soaring Ceilings 4 BD | 3 BA | 4447± SF | 1.24± AC
Offered at $4,000,000
Exclusive Offering by Randy Haden/Molly Haden
VIEW PROPERTY VIDEO
Palladian Style Italianesque Estate | Soaring Ceilings | Ocean Views 4 BD | 4.5 BA | 4018± SF | 0.95± AC Offered at $3,995,000
Exclusive Offering by Randy Haden/Molly Haden
2899 HIDDEN VALLEY LANE | MONTECITO
HOPE RANCH
Review Update
HOPE RANCH
- homes estates | pudsYTD 2025
REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in hope ranch) +81% change over 2024 (16 YTD Sales)
29
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+93% change over 2024
29
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+30% change over 2024
$8,225,204
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+3% change over 2024
$6,300,973
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES n/a change over 2024 n/a
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% change over 2024 n/a
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% change over 2024 n/a
96 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 90%
HOPE RANCH
- homes estates | pudsOCTOBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in hope ranch) (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +102% change over 2024
$10,000,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +102%change over 2024
$10,000,000
2
HIGHEST SALES PRICE 4672 Via Roblada Hope Ranch, CA 93110
$7,800,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 4475 Via Abrigada Hope Ranch, CA 93110
$12,200,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 15 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 99%
REAL TIME MARKET DATA - click -
HOPE RANCH
sales
YTD 2025 TOTAL SALES 29 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions
62% YTD 2025 SALES ALL CASH 18 of the 29 Total Sales
17% YTD 2025 SALES OFF MARKET 5 of the 29 Total Sales
$8,225,204
$6,300,973
HOPE RANCH YTD 2025
TRANSACTIONS
HOPE RANCH YTD 2025
SANTA BARBARA
BARBARA
Review Update
SANTA BARBARA
- homes estates | puds | condosYTD 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
507
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+3% change over 2024
372
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+2% change over 2024
$2,616,713
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+5% change over 2024
$2,302,500
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+29% change over 2024
135
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +10% change over 2024
$1,398,952
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +8% change over 2024
$1,172,000
SANTA BARBARA
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -13% change over 2024
$2,114,161
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -1% change over 2024
$1,975,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
2082 Las Canoas Road Santa Barbara CA 93103
$5,400,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
3914 Via Lucero B Santa Barbara CA 93101
$765,000 Condominium Home
Review Update
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES -18% change over 2024
9
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -34% change over 2024
$2,128,692
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -40% change over 2024
$1,800,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES n/a change over 2024
4
AVERAGE SALES PRICE n/a change over 2024
$1,521,250
MEDIAN SALES PRICE n/a change over 2024
$1,537,500
- homes estates | puds | condosOCTOBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 1
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -71% change over 2024
$1,250,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -71% change over 2024
$1,250,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
3375 Foothill Road, 732 Summerland, CA 93013
$1,250,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 3375 Foothill Road, 732 Summerland, CA 93013
$1,250,000
TIME MARKET DATA - click -
CARPINTERIA
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
106
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +39% change over 2024
54
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -64% change over 2024
$2,727,679
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% change over 2024
$1,827,500
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES -10% change over 2024
52
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +2% change over 2024
$940,414
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +2% change over 2024
$850,000
- homes estates | puds | condosOCTOBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-32% change over 2024
$1,238,200
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-41% change over 2024
$995,000
15
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
5664 Calle Pacific Carpinteria CA 93013
$2,285,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
5921 Hickory Street, #3 Carpinteria CA 93013
$635,000 Condominium Home
REAL TIME MARKET DATA - click -
GOLETA
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
278
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+9% change over 2024
193
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+8% change over 2024
$1,967,841
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% change over 2024
$1,715,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES -21% change over 2024
85
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +2% change over 2024
$1,047,147
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +1% change over 2024
$960,000
GOLETA
- homes estates | puds | condosOCTOBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-27% change over 2024
$5,184,941
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-35% change over 2024
$4,250,000
17
HIGHEST SALES PRICE 4530 Via Clarice Goleta CA 93111
$4,450,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 5514 Armitos Avenue, #64 Goleta CA 93117
$630,000 Condominium Home
REAL TIME MARKET DATA - click -
CONCIERGE Real Estate Service
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE
Now more than ever you need an expert advisor on your side who can provide comprehensive analysis and exclusive insights into today’s fast-paced housing market. We see every luxury property available and know the market. Our commitment to staying educated on what’s happening with economic news, the real estate market, local sales and listings is essential to your success when buying or selling properties.
CONCIERGE SERVICE
We strive to deliver a high level of personalized service— personally! We provide our clients with cutting-edge strategies that produce ideal results. Our exceptional service is driven by efficient communication, understanding your needs and having expansive industry resources—combined with expert knowledge of the extensive contracts and required forms to protect your best interests. The process comes together as a result of our years of successful negotiating which leads to a winning deal. We listen carefully, anticipate your needs, execute the deal and handle all the details. The hard work starts when a contract is in place so you will be happy you chose representation experienced in closing the deal smoothly.
COMMUNITY INVESTMENT
Sell a Home | Build a Home initiative. We are deeply connected and committed to the communities in which we live and work. Haden Homes Luxury Property Group has made a pledge to help individuals with housing needs by partnering with Habitat for Humanity. For every home that our clients buy or sell, Haden Homes makes a donation to Santa Barbara’s Habitat for Humanity.
DATA SOURCES | LISTING DISCLOSURE
All information provided is deemed reliable but has not been verified. We do not guarantee it and recommend buyers make their own inquiries. Data source Fidelity National Title of Santa Barbara, CORT and Santa Barbara MLS. INdata Real Estate Market Reporting through October 2025.
Properties featured are courtesy of the Santa Barbara MLS and are available for sale at time of publication. They may be listed by brokers and/or agents other than Compass or Haden Homes Luxury Property Group. Contact us for details or to set up a private showing at 805.880.6530.
CHICAGO TITLE
FIDELITY NATIONAL TITLE
SANTA BARBARA MLS
Licenced Associate Broker / REALTOR® DRE 019988499
o: 805.880.6530
m: 602.300.1271
randy@hadenhomes.com
m: 602.430.8680 molly@hadenhomes.com RANDY HADEN
Luxury Property Specialist / REALTOR® DRE 02020380
