The Luxury Report | Q3 + September 2025 Real Estate Market | Montecito/Hope Ranch/Santa Barbara
Hello
Everyone -
As we turn the corner into Autumn, the South Santa Barbara County residential real estate market remains resilient and we would be delighted to connect if you are considering a move to our special slice of coastal paradise!
We are all aware of the remarkable peak in real estate prices during the pandemic and real estate felt like a rocket ship. Aggressive bidding wars, cash flying around and homes selling off market or during the first few days. While much of this has cooled, what we have now is trending toward a more balanced and stable market. Buyers seem to have the upper hand in this market due to rising inventory levels and more price reductions than we have seen over the past few years. Interestingly, the number of sales has not skyrocketed as expected and many buyers are watching on the sidelines or making more careful decisions. Read on for more insight—
KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE:
SOLD PRICE | The median sales price is moderating at $2,362,230 for Single Family Homes (SFH) during Q3 2025. The first 3 months/Q1 of 2025 drove the median price up to $2,795,000 for SFH as a result of some ultra high sales.
INVENTORY | The available homes for sale is at 3.91 Months of Inventory, a record high since 2019.
TOTAL SALES | The number of transactions is not surging with this increased inventory. September sales of 113 transactions is almost exactly the same as August’s 112 transactions and well below pre-pandemic normals.
PRICE CHANGES/DOM | We are seeing more price reductions with the days on market increasing each week.
LUXURY MARKET | Only 3 homes traded over $10M in September, one off market in Hope Ranch at $25M, but pending sales show some potential eye-popping transactions in our future. In Montecito, Q1 had a strong showing with 68 transactions while Q2 and Q3 leveled off to 48 and 49 respectively. Regardless, this segment remains strong.
INSURANCE | This is on the radar since it has become a significant part of the economics of the total home decision. Properties in the extreme high fire areas are showing signs of declining value because of the difficulties in California. We stay on top of this and have a list of reputable insurance brokers to help you navigate this ever changing segment to ensure you get optimal coverage at the best possible rate.
BUYERS | Local dynamics matter a lot and there are still good values out there if you know where to look. It's a fluid market and activity differs neighborhood to neighborhood and home to home. Now more than ever, it is important to have extensive market knowledge when making real estate decisions. We are seeing buyers gravitate towards homes that are “finished” and don’t need a large remodel project. Our focus is on finding investment grade properties for our clients that increase or at a minimum hold their value, regardless of market conditions.
SELLERS | Sellers are having to adjust their expectations in this market and that’s where we come in! We can expertly help you prepare your home for sale and price it competitively the FIRST time to attract enthusiastic buyers so you benefit from the best and highest price possible. Pricing your home correctly matters. Listing too high often brings the seller a disappointing lower sold price. Homes that are not priced correctly are lingering on the market or being overlooked, while homes priced properly are still getting multiple offers. Check out our Compass 3-Phase Marketing Plan to maximize the return on your real estate investment.
In this highly competitive market—experience matters. We offer extensive market knowledge, world-class marketing and concierge level professional service with complete confidentiality to our clients. Our proven track record of success includes skills necessary to put complicated deals together and negotiate the price and terms that will get your home sold for a premium price and your offer accepted on your replacement property— even amongst multiple offers.
Looking for professional + creative results-oriented representation reach out for a confidential conversation and strategic marketing plan. Let’s Talk!
Randy and
Molly
“RealTrends
VERIFIED RANKINGS 2025 &
We are delighted and honored to be recognized as one of the TOP AGENTS in the Montecito area on Los Angeles Magazine’s 2025 All Stars List and the RealTrends Verified Rankings for 2025. It would be our pleasure to include you and your family as one of our valued clients and new friends ! Please reach out for a confidential conversation about your real estate goals!
- Randy Haden and Molly Haden
Thank you to our valued clients for helping us achieve this tremendous milestone of being included in the RealTrends Verified Rankings!
We are honored to be recognized as one of the top-performing teams in the country. This group includes the most influential leaders in real estate, including top teams, brokerage executives and industry trailblazers,
We are incredibly grateful for the continued trust in our expertise and your loyalty to our business. Our client's support make it possible for us to provide a seamless and successful experience to anyone looking to embark on their own real estate journey. Please reach out to discuss the current market and what your 2025 real estate plans are.
Los Angeles Magazine
REAL ESTATE ALL STARS
&With tens of thousands of real estate agents working in Los Angeles and surrounding communities, choosing the right one can be a daunting task. Buying a home shouldn’t be as stressful as driving a car without brakes, which is why we commissioned Professional Research Services to contact residential real estate companies—big and small—in the region and collect the names of its top performing agents within a 12-month period.
Now a home purchase of this significance no longer needs to be a gamble. Peace of mind is the least we can offer. Making your house a home is up to you!
BARBARA COUNTY
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
+9% change over 2024
1021
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+12% change over 2024
743
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-2% increase over 2024
$3,578,876
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% increase over 2024
$2,362,230
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+3% change over 2024
248
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +14% increase over 2024
$1,397,441
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +11% increase over 2024
$1,099,000
BARBARA COUNTY
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +12% change over 2024
346
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+16% change over 2024
255
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-2% increase over 2024
$3,415,753
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+5% increase over 2024
$2,300,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+1% change over 2024
91
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -6% increase over 2024
$1,314,546
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -9% increase over 2024
$965,000
BANDIT EXPLORING THE COURTHOUSE
Santa Barbara County Courthouse
south -
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +11% change over 2024
114
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+13% change over 2024
81
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -15% increase over 2024
$3,160,647
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -6% increase over 2024
$2,350,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +6% change over 2024
33
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -4% increase over 2024
$1,656,610
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +1% increase over 2024
$1,180,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
56 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 95%
SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 95%
26
- let's talkRANDY/MOLLY
INSIGHT
| There are still Good Values out there and we can help you sort through the increased inventory to find Investment Grade properties, in desirable areas that will continue to
be a good decision Regardless of which way the market trends .
- southSANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes estates | puds | (excludes condos) -
- south -
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes estates | puds | (excludes condos)ACTIVE LISTINGS
+ SOLD ANALYSIS
YTD Totals | 2018—2025
INSIGHT | Could Inventory and Sales Be Moving Toward a More Normalized Market - Or Is This Just be a Moment in Time?
RECOMMENDED AVAILABLE PROPERTIES
- LISTED WITHIN THE IN PAST 35 DAYS -
Our carefully curated Compass Collection includes properties we consider to be exceptional, excellent investments and/or good values - call/text/email for details or a private showing.
SEPTEMBER
PROPERTY
COLLECTION
Connect and stay ahead of the market. Get in touch for a list of the most up to date inventory—including Compass Private Exclusives (off market) and Coming Soon homes that are not available on public search sites.
Properties featured are courtesy of the Santa Barbara MLS. They may be listed by brokers and/or agents other than Compass or Haden Homes Luxury Property Group.
LUXURY MARKET Q3 2025 + OUTLOOK
The demand for Ultra-Luxury estate homes in our beautiful coastal community remains robust, as affluent buyers from around the globe are drawn to Montecito, Hope Ranch and Santa Barbara.
LUXURY MARKET SALES VOLUME | So far in 2025, 36 properties have traded over $10M this year which is an 8% increase over the 28 properties during the same time 2024. The high sale was off market at 289 San Ysidro Road (2 parcels) for $55M in July with the runner up at 956 Mariposa Lane for $30M in January, both in Montecito.
In 2024, 33 homes traded over $10M and 12 of these traded over $20M with the highest sale at 2781 Padaro Lane for $96M. The Ultra Luxury trend continues into 2025 and is trending to bypass 2024 with 33 properties trading over $10M through August. Of these 33 properties, 23 are in Montecito, 6 are in Hope Ranch and 9 properties traded for $20M or more.
SALES PRICE | The median sold price in Q3 2025 for SFHs in Montecito is at $5,091,000, down -12% over Q3 2024. We feel the median price is a better indicator since one Ultra Luxury sale can artificially elevate the average sold price.
LUXURY MARKET CASH SALES | Enthusiastic buyers are undeterred by interest rates evidenced by 60% of homes (99 of the 165 total YTD sales) in Montecito trading for all cash so far in 2025. While much has been said about the impact of high interest rates on residential sales, stock market sentiment holds more weight for many high-net-worth clients.
LUXURY MARKET OFF-MARKET ACTIVITY | Off-market deals are still thriving as evidenced by 31 of 165 homes (19%) in Montecito trading off market YTD 2025. We have been successful in putting many deals together privately by networking extensively with other top agents and being “in the know” when a homeowner prefers a quieter sale.
SELLERS | Our Compass Private Exclusive program allows us to list your home privately and share off market properties directly with over 30,000 Compass Agents and our clients. Eposure to qualified buyers is essential in marketing luxury properties.
BUYERS | We are always delighted to share Compass Private Exclusive properties with you so please contact us for a link to our current off market inventory.
- 2025 Sales ListULTRA LUXURY
The Demand for Ultra-Luxury Estate Homes in our Beautiful Coastal Community Remains Robust, as Affluent Buyers from Around the Globe are Drawn to Montecito and Santa Barbara for our Exceptional Climate, Outdoor Activities, Privacy, Safety and Vibrant Community.
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +33% change over 2024
165
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +26% change over 2024
139
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$7,451,214
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$6,150,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +86% change over 2024
26
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$3,284,668
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$2,875,000
80 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 93%
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 17 AVERAGE SALES PRICE -27% increase over 2024
$5,184,941
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -35% increase over 2024
$4,250,000 HIGHEST SALES PRICE 890 Park Lane Montecito CA 93109
$10,540,000 LOWEST SALES PRICE 159 Loureyro Road Santa Barbara CA 93108
$1,575,000
MONTECITO
- homes estates | puds | condosQ3 2025 | TOTAL SALES Distributed by Price Range
sales
Q3 2025 TOTAL SALES
49 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions
Information Deemed Reliable But Not Guaranteed. Data Provided by Fidelity National Title/Santa Barbara, CORT or SBAOR.
MONTECITO
homes estates | puds | condos -
2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +23% change over 2024
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -6% increase over 2024
$6,786,441
$5,091,000
MONTECITO YTD 2025
165 TRANSACTIONS
1803
MONTECITO YTD 2025
165 TRANSACTIONS
$6,794,668
$5,650,000
MONTECITO
- homes estates | puds | condos -
10 Year Trend | 2015—YTD 2025
2891 HIDDEN VALLEY LANE | MONTECITO
Where Epic Ocean Views Meet Stunning Mountain Vistas | Soaring Ceilings 4 BD | 3 BA | 4447± SF | 1.24± AC Offered at $4,250,000 Exclusive Offering by Randy Haden/Molly Haden
2 BD | 2 BA | 1285± SF | 1.0± AC Offered at $2,995,000
Exclusive Offering by Randy Haden/Molly Haden LISTING REPORT
HOPE RANCH
Q3+SEPTEMBER
Review Update
HOPE RANCH
- homes estates | puds -
2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in hope ranch) +93% change over 2024
27
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+93% change over 2024
27
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+24% increase over 2024
$8,093,737
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+3% increase over 2024
$6,300,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES n/a change over 2024 n/a
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024 n/a
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024 n/a
80 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 93%
HOPE RANCH
YTD 2025 TOTAL SALES 27 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions 27 sales
63% Q3 SALES ALL CASH 17 of the 27 Total Sales
15% Q3 SALES OFF MARKET 4 of the 27 Total Sales
HOPE RANCH
- homes estates | puds -
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in hope ranch) +150% change over 2024
10
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-2% increase over 2024
$9,053,893
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$6,226,275
- homes estates | pudsSEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in hope ranch) (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
n/a increase over 2024
$24,000,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
n/a increase over 2024
$24,000,000
1
HIGHEST SALES PRICE 4621 Via Roblada Hope Ranch, CA 93110
$24,000,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 4621 Via Roblada Hope Ranch, CA 93110
$24,000,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
1 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 100%
REAL TIME MARKET DATA - click -
$8,093,737
$6,300,000
HOPE RANCH YTD 2025
TRANSACTIONS
HOPE RANCH YTD 2025
SANTA BARBARA
BARBARA
Review Update
SANTA BARBARA
- homes estates | puds | condosYTD 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
+8% change over 2024
449
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+2% change over 2024
330
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+3% increase over 2024
$2,644,007
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+5% increase over 2024
$2,317,500
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+23% change over 2024
119
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +10% increase over 2024
$1,395,360
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +7% increase over 2024
$1,165,000
SANTA BARBARA
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +19% change over 2024 160
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-6% increase over 2024
$2,204,005
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -12% increase over 2024
$1,842,605
1203 DIANA LANE | SANTA BARBARA
SANTA BARBARA
- homes estates | puds | condosSEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-18% increase over 2024
$2,179,701
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-15% increase over 2024
$2,032,652
50
HIGHEST SALES PRICE 1522 Knoll Circle Drive Santa Barbara CA 93103
$6,200,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE 433 West Gutierrez Street Santa Barbara CA 93101
$796,000
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Single Family Homes + Condominiums 12
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +13% change over 2024
9
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$2,128,692
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$1,800,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES n/a change over 2024
3
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$1,611,667
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$1,825,000
SUMMERLAND
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
-50% change over 2024 2
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-38% increase over 2024
$1,727,615
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-39% increase over 2024
$1,727,615
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 1
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
$1,400,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
$1,400,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
2295 Shelby Street Santa Barbara CA 93067
$1,400,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
2295 Shelby Street Santa Barbara CA 93067
$1,400,000
CARPINTERIA
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Family Homes + Condominiums
91
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES +39% change over 2024
46
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -64% increase over 2024
$2,921,982
MEDIAN SALES PRICE -2% increase over 2024
$2,083,250
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES -10% change over 2024
45
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +2% increase over 2024
$959,934
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +2% increase over 2024
$875,000
CARPINTERIA
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums -3% change over 2024
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-51% increase over 2024
$2,007,579
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +35% increase over 2024
$1,500,000
- homes estates | puds | condosSEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 11
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-44% increase over 2024
$2,359,255
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-3% increase over 2024
$1,580,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
120 Polo Way Santa Barbara CA 93013
$6,340,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
5925 Birch Street 4 Santa Barbara CA 93013
$710,000
GOLETA
Q3+SEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Review Update
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
278
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES
+9% change over 2024
193
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+8% increase over 2024
$1,967,841
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% increase over 2024
$1,715,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL 2025 SALES -21% change over 2024
85
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +2% increase over 2024
$1,047,147
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +1% increase over 2024
$960,000
GOLETA
- homes estates | puds | condos -
Q3 2025 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums -2% change over 2024
95
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+6% increase over 2024
$1,598,426
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+8% increase over 2024
$1,510,000
- homes estates | puds | condosSEPTEMBER 2025 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 17
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-27% increase over 2024
$5,184,941
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-35% increase over 2024
$4,250,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
845 Sea Ranch Drive Santa Barbara CA 93109
$3,658,727
LOWEST SALES PRICE
845 Sea Ranch Drive Santa Barbara CA 93109
$3,658,727
TIME MARKET DATA - click -
CONCIERGE Real Estate Service
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE
Now more than ever you need an expert advisor on your side who can provide comprehensive analysis and exclusive insights into today’s fast-paced housing market. We see every luxury property available and know the market. Our commitment to staying educated on what’s happening with economic news, the real estate market, local sales and listings is essential to your success when buying or selling properties.
CONCIERGE SERVICE
We strive to deliver a high level of personalized service— personally! We provide our clients with cutting-edge strategies that produce ideal results. Our exceptional service is driven by efficient communication, understanding your needs and having expansive industry resources—combined with expert knowledge of the extensive contracts and required forms to protect your best interests. The process comes together as a result of our years of successful negotiating which leads to a winning deal. We listen carefully, anticipate your needs, execute the deal and handle all the details. The hard work starts when a contract is in place so you will be happy you chose representation experienced in closing the deal smoothly.
COMMUNITY INVESTMENT
Sell a Home | Build a Home initiative. We are deeply connected and committed to the communities in which we live and work. Haden Homes Luxury Property Group has made a pledge to help individuals with housing needs by partnering with Habitat for Humanity. For every home that our clients buy or sell, Haden Homes makes a donation to Santa Barbara’s Habitat for Humanity.
DATA SOURCES | LISTING DISCLOSURE
All information provided is deemed reliable but has not been verified. We do not guarantee it and recommend buyers make their own inquiries. Data source Fidelity National Title of Santa Barbara, CORT and Santa Barbara MLS. INdata Real Estate Market Reporting through September 2025.
Properties featured are courtesy of the Santa Barbara MLS and are available for sale at time of publication. They may be listed by brokers and/or agents other than Compass or Haden Homes Luxury Property Group. Contact us for details or to set up a private showing at 805.880.6530.
