GCC Renovation Project Commentary and Responses to Frequently Asked Questions
Dear Fellow Members: I first want to thank you for your patience through a difficult and challenging renovation process. This is not easy, and there is a story to tell. So, I apologize in advance for a lengthy communication letter. And, as excited as I am to share our new renovation plans with you, I recognize that many of you may be reaching “renovation fatigue”; or wondering “why now?”, as there is no clear visibility with respect to the health pandemic and the economy; or thinking “this seems like an extraordinarily high level of debt for our club, especially coupled with negative trends in membership and our two-campus model”. These are good questions - and appropriate questions. To give you answers, walk with me through the three stages of where we have been, where we are now, and where we are headed. Where We Have Been As a membership, we have been exploring clubhouse and amenity enhancements since we engaged our consultant, Chambers, over three years ago to help us develop a Strategic Plan and a Facilities Master Plan. This included taking a survey to learn what was important to you (at least a majority of you, as I have learned that we will never satisfy every member’s individual tastes, needs and wants), and then developing a renovation project that delivered on those survey results within our existing footprint and utilizing our existing infrastructure.
This is where it gets complicated, as everything depends on humility of process. Rather than form a committee that was tasked to develop a renovation plan in isolation, the Board of Directors was adamant that this process be inclusive of the appropriate committees, such as the House Committee for food and beverage, Aquatics for the pool complex, as well as Fitness, Tennis, and Youth Activities. This inclusive approach is very time consuming, but ultimately yields a better outcome because the design reflects broader support, includes input from our members who serve on these committees, and results in compromise. When the first iteration of the Renovation Plan was shared with you (over a year ago now), there was a tremendous amount of excitement as evidenced by a 76% favorable vote in support of the project. This vote of approval allowed the Board to spend up to $13.4 million on construction, third party fees (such as architectural, mechanical, plumbing, civil, and structural engineering), and furniture and fixtures (including new kitchen equipment). In addition, the favorable vote also provided for the refinancing of $3 million in outstanding indebtedness for a total debt level of $16.4 million. Unfortunately, this plan was derailed as the pricing guidance provided by our consultants turned out to be off by more than 30%. This miscalculation was primarily due to a rapidly changing (and increasing) cost environment in both materials and labor. Chambers should have provided us with better guidance (as they are involved in numerous projects across the country where they would have seen this coming). They did not, but anyone in the construction industry will agree that the speed at which prices were increasing caught everyone off guard. Sometimes things happen for a reason. The “sticker shock� of construction costs forced us to take a pause and reexamine. In hindsight, this pause provided the Renovation Committee and the GCC operations team with an opportunity to identify, adjust, and course correct. With more time to study and reanalyze, it became clear that the Family Activity Center was introducing a
third, full service, kitchen – not very efficient. Also, during the town hall meetings we received feedback that the Family Grill (located in the Family Activity Center) felt too disconnected from the main building – creating a feeling that children and families were to be placed on an island (or across the pool anyway). But, the Family Activity Center provided more than just a new home for the Family Grill, the 1 – 2 split building (looks like a one story building from the pool deck, and a two story building from the golf course) served as the retaining wall for one side of the pool complex. In addition, it provided space for maintenance and storage, a laundry facility, and youth activity spaces. So, in an effort to be more operationally efficient, our architects and the Renovation Committee pursued an alternative for the Family Grill that extended the existing space along with an expanded and updated kitchen that would serve not only the Family Grill, but also the 1909 Adult Grill, and the new Donald Ross Terrace bar – far more efficient. In addition, we pursued the expansion of the Fitness Center (an expansion off the back of the building towards the golf course with an “L” shape towards the pool deck) that would increase the square footage of arguably our most utilized amenity by more than 25%. This expansion also provided us with the necessary design and framework to include youth activity spaces, a laundry facility, and maintenance and storage space. Where We Are Now This second iteration of the Renovation Plan has turned out to be a much better plan for the longterm and now offers something for everyone. A brochure that includes renderings of the renovated and enhanced spaces, along with additional commentary and analysis, is currently under development, and will be mailed to you in the next 7 to 10 days.
As David Egerton communicated to you in his last letter, the total cost of the new renovation plan is $19.1 million. To date, we have spent over $900,000 with third parties (consultants, architects, and engineers) to develop a full set of construction plans (which are needed to obtain accurate construction pricing). We are currently in discussions with serval banks for an $18.5 million construction loan and a $1.5 million working capital line of credit, which together will provide us with a new $20 million credit facility (or $3.6 million more than what was approved from the last membership vote).
At the time of this writing, our total debt is $1.6 million and is expected to be $1.1 million by December. This debt would be refinanced under our new working capital line of credit. If the project is approved, our $18.5 million construction loan would be interest only for two years (no principal payments for two years as we draw down on the line of credit and complete the construction). During the period of draw down (as we do not borrow $18.5 million on day one), we will have significant cash flow available to us through the collection of our capital dues and initiation fees from both new and existing members (please note that most new members elect to “finance” their initiation fee over time because the club offers a payment plan with no interest charged; thereby providing the Club with an annual collection of initiation fees from members that joined many years ago). Through July of this year, we have collected $747,000 in initiation fees, and we collect over $2,150,000 in capital dues annually (assuming our current membership count this totals $2,897,000 in capital dues and initiation fees). To put this in perspective, if we borrowed the full $18.5 million construction loan on day one, our annual interest expense would be $693,750 (assuming a conservative 3.75% interest rate). With our low level of debt, an interest-only construction line of credit, and the expected schedule of construction draws, we will generate significant cash during the construction period. In light of that cash availability, the Finance and Audit Committee has recommended and the Board has approved the creation of a Replacement Reserve Account of $1 million that would be fully funded during the construction period while we are generating significant excess cash. This Replacement Reserve, basically a self-funded escrow, will be maintained in cash and will be available to us as a cash flow cushion as needed to fund future unanticipated maintenance and repairs. With the announcement of the total cost of the project, we are receiving many questions from our members. In a separate letter, I will provide responses to frequently asked questions we have received. In many cases, there is not necessarily a “right or wrong” answer. Members will undoubtedly disagree (as is common with politics or decisioning something with such a large group), but I can provide color around the thought process from the Board of Directors, the Renovation Committee, and the Finance and Audit Committee. Where We Are Headed We have the option of looking at our current situation, and the economic cycle we are in that was brought about by a health pandemic as a time to hunker down or as an opportunity, an opportunity to take advantage of performing much needed enhancements and improvements during a health pandemic-forced shut down of several of our venues. A time when the shutdown is already disruptive and creating an operating loss (as much as $650,000 this year alone). We have the opportunity to borrow money as cheaply as anyone can remember. We have the opportunity to take advantage of more favorable construction prices today than when the economy is back humming again. True, there is uncertainty around the economy due to COVID-19, and the debt level feels (and is) large. But, what – realistically – is the alternative? The formation of a new Renovation Committee (and Chair), along with hiring a new consulting firm to study and deliver a new, less expensive alternative, will take years to complete. Meanwhile, we will be throwing money at the oldest pool in Guilford County, and will do who knows what with the functionally obsolete and
severely damaged Pavilion building. We will be able to install new carpet and change the drapes, but where does that put us in comparison with our competition? We can do this renovation without raising your capital dues or calling for an assessment. The Board and the Finance and Audit Committee are laser focused on fiscal discipline to pay our debt down as rapidly as possible while setting up a $1 million Replacement Reserve account for anything unexpected. The Renovation Committee is confident that the estimates Blum Construction has provided are conservative, with more than $1 million in contingency dollars, and that we have a decent chance of coming in under budget. More information is coming, and we will continue to address your thoughtful questions and concerns as we receive them. I wish we could be together and discuss this in person, but we are trying to do our best during these unusual times to share the project details with you, explain the costs, and demonstrate how we can pay for it. Serving as your Renovation Chair has been an honor and has challenged me in ways I could never have imagined. I am a member just like you, and I have tried (as best I could) to balance working within an existing footprint, delivering a first-class project, being inclusive of others to find compromise, and being fiscally responsible. There are a few things in life I will never forget: failing out of college (the second time), my first day of basic training in the US Army and later graduating from Air Assault School and S.E.R.E. School (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape School), my wedding day, and the day we adopted each of our children. This experience too, I will always remember and cherish. It has truly been my good fortune to work alongside so many fellow members that I otherwise would never have had the opportunity to get to know as well as I do now. I am privileged to belong to a club with such an amazing membership. Again, thank you for your patience with me, the Board of Directors, the Committees, and the process. Matthew Rankin Renovation Chair
Frequently Asked Questions Why should we embark on such a massive project right now with uncertainty in the economy and during a health pandemic? There are good reasons to stop and take a wait-and-see approach or make decisions when there is less uncertainty. However, there are also very compelling reasons on why now is a very good time to pursue such an endeavor. COVID-19 has forced many businesses to shut down or operate at limited capacity. GCC is no exception as our Banquet business (large functions such as wedding receptions, rehearsal dinners, and large group functions) has been suspended, and our dining venues are operating at 40% to 50% capacity. This will leave its mark on revenue and will most likely result in a $500,000 to $650,000 annual operating loss in 2020. With the uncertainty about our ability to reopen, one could view the health pandemic-forced closure as a perfect time to do such a renovation where we will experience disruption and areas that will be shut down. Whenever a major renovation occurs, it will be very disruptive and create an operating loss. Another consideration is the simple fact that our facilities are quite literally falling apart. We have a pool that will not pass inspection next year and will require $300,000 to $500,000 to “fix� it to pass inspection. Also, we have a Pavilion building that is currently damaged by greater than 50% of its value due to a fire that occurred earlier this year, which will require us to upgrade the building to meet current code. Our kitchen facility is extremely outdated and dysfunctional (please come tour it and you will understand). Lastly, there is the general tired and outdated look and feel of many of our amenity spaces. If you visit our competition (Sedgefield Country Club and Starmount Country Club), you will notice that we are way behind in updating and enhancing our amenities. How long can we wait? How much money will we have to spend to essentially band aid our situation? There is also the consideration of current (and historic all-time low) interest rates. And construction costs have risen but will likely be higher when the economy recovers. I have no crystal ball, but in a thriving economy, will construction costs be higher or lower than they are today? In a thriving economy, will interest rates be higher or lower than they are today? There are always risks and we need to make sure that we have ways to mitigate these risks if things go bump. For example, we are currently a two-campus model country club. Each year, we run a $1.5 to $2.0 million operating loss at our Carlson Farm campus. This is due primarily to the cost of operating a first-class golf course and a campus that is very underutilized. If we experience continued pressure on membership, we will need to reevaluate our two-campus model and explore how we might create two independent clubs or create a new membership category where each campus must be financially stable.
Why the rush to make a $19.1million decision in 30 days? The primary driver is the avoidance of missing two pool seasons. In order to do this, we must begin demolition in October of this year. If this project gets turned down, what is Plan B? What happens to the money we have already spent? (over $900,000 to date) Unfortunately, the only way to find out how much a project will cost, is to develop a set of construction plans with consultants, architects, and engineers. What we are doing is all very custom and specific to our existing buildings and infrastructure. Therefore, a change in direction would result in a sunk cost. Equally as disappointing, is that we have no Plan B. We have between $5 and $7 million of deferred maintenance at our Irving Park Campus that was going to be addressed in our renovation project. Complicating matters further, our campus is very tight, where everything is connected to everything. The Pavilion building holds up one side of the deteriorating pool and pool deck, which touches the area of any renovation of a family grill and kitchen – it’s all complicated and intertwined. How do we pay for this? We have over 1,200 members with varying operating and capital dues structures. In an effort to “normalize” the different classes of membership, we perform a weighted average to get to a “Full-Time-Equivalent”, or FTE, headcount which would represent full paying dues members. At the time of this writing, our current FTE count is 1,028. Please refer to the analysis below for assumptions about our current FTE’s and a more conservative scenario titled “Stress Case” which assumes an additional 10% decline in membership over and above what we have already experienced through the health pandemic. Year to date, we have experienced a net loss of 74 members with 26 resigning due to COVID-19.
July 2020
Stress Case
FTE's
1,028
925
Monthly Cap Dues
$175
$175
$747,351
$325,000
$2,906,151
$2,267,500
GCC Membership
Initiation Fees & Tails Annual Cap Dues & Initiation Fees Received
The analysis below details the collection of annual Capital Dues and Initiation Fees during the Construction Phase less maintenance level capital expenditures, capital lease obligations (primarily golf course equipment), an operating loss, and the interest-only debt service: July 2020 TOTAL Annual Cap Dues and Initiation Fees Annual Operating Loss Maintenance CAPEX Capital Lease Obligations Surplus (Deficit) to cover Debt Service YEAR 1 - Annual Debt Service During Construction Working Capital Line of Credit Interest-only Construction LOC - (50% funded) Annual Surplus (Deficit)
$2,906,151
Stress Case $2,267,500
($100,000) ($400,000) ($450,000)
($100,000) ($400,000) ($450,000)
$1,956,151
$1,317,500
($33,000) ($277,500)
($33,000) ($277,500)
$1,645,651
$1,007,000
The analysis below details the collection of annual Capital Dues and Initiation Fees after Construction is complete: July 2020 TOTAL Annual Cap Dues and Initiation Fees Annual Operating Loss Maintenance CAPEX Capital Lease Obligations
$2,906,151
Stress Case $2,267,500
($100,000) ($400,000) ($450,000)
($100,000) ($400,000) ($450,000)
Surplus (Deficit) to cover Debt Service
$1,956,151
$1,317,500
YEAR 3 - Annual Debt Service (Principal & Interest) Working Capital Line of Credit Full Debt Service - 20-year Am (Prinicpal & Interest)
($33,000) ($1,231,207)
($33,000) ($1,231,207)
$691,944
$53,293
$18,500,000 3.00% 240
$18,500,000 3.00% 240
Annual Surplus (Deficit)
Assumptions Construction Loan Interest rate Amortization (No. of Months)
The analysis above represents a fully funded Construction Loan after the interest-only period expires and with a 20-year amortization rate. We intend to structure a 20-year amortization rate with a Lender as a conservative measure; however, the Board has approved making principal payments on a more aggressive 15-year amortization schedule (better fiscal discipline). The purpose of this approach is to set up a loan structure that is conservative in case we experience additional or prolonged economic uncertainty, and/or additional declines in membership. In addition, and as previously mentioned in this communication, if we encounter severe and prolonged economic hardship, we will be forced to revisit how best to fund our current twocampus model. What is the breakdown of costs by venue for the project? Greensboro Country Club - Schematic Design Pricing (50% Design Development) ORIGINAL Blum Construction Estimate Master Planning Budget to GC's
Total Hard Construction Costs $9,380,433
NEW SCOPE Blum Construction Estimate
$1,649,088 $3,404,883
Sitework / Storm / Parking / Selective Demo Pool Area / Ammenities
$4,857,007
Sitework / Pool Complex / Pavilion Building
$4,269,116
Clubhouse Addition / Renovations
$1,639,199 $1,178,660 $1,474,645
Clubhouse - Lower Level Clubhouse - Main Level Clubhouse Additions
$4,830,017
Family Activity Center
$1,698,782 $919,870
Fitness Addition Fitness Renovation
$469,022 $610,000 $25,000 $15,257,126
Contractor Contingency General Conditions Preconstruction Fee to Blum Construction Total Blum Construction
$618,908 $610,005 $25,000 $13,022,076
Contractor Contingency General Conditions Preconstruction Fee to Blum Construction Total Blum Construction
$492,473 $0 $0 $1,382,239 $1,080,110 $18,211,948
Owner's Contingency Misc. Food Service Equipment Furniture, Fixtures & Accessories Soft Costs (third party fees) Total Blum + Contingency, FF&E, and Third Party Fees
$492,473 $465,000 $766,500 $1,382,239 $1,464,810 $17,593,098
Owner's Contingency (Special inspections, permits, signage, sound system, security cameras, etc.) Food Service Equipment Furniture, Fixtures & Accessories Soft Costs (third party fees) Total Blum + Contingency, FF&E, and Third Party Fees
$469,022 $492,473 $595,000 $1,382,239 $1,080,110 $13,399,277
$150,000 $159,771 $309,771 $18,521,719
Owners Rep Construction Bond (1%) - Includes Add Alternates
$161,640 $142,401 $304,041
Owners Rep Construction Bond
$17,897,139
Total Add Alternates
$200,000 $200,000 $95,000 $125,000 $40,000 $60,000 $720,000
Upper Level Terrace Terrace at Family Activity Center Pool check-in Kiosk Entry Corridor Enhancement (between Clubhouse & Tennis Courts) Upstairs Bathroom Enhancements Wine Lockers Total Add Alternates
Laundry list of items
$19,241,719
Total Project Costs
$19,115,139
$1,218,000
As you can see above, the second iteration is not an apples-to-apples comparison as the Fitness Center expansion has replaced the Family Activity Center. Also of note, we did not include various add-alternate costs in our last presentation as they were considered nice to have and not essential.
This time around, our general contractor, Blum Construction, has been involved for more than a year (along with many of their larger and key sub-contractors) getting to know our facility and the construction plans. In addition, Blum has been working closely over the last 12 months with our architects and engineers. Additionally, we added to the team an owner’s representative with extensive experience in projects of this size and complexity of what we are contemplating, and he has been integrally involved as the Club’s representative in developing the revised plans and associated pricing considerations. The project estimates they have provided have cushion as well as a GC contingency of over $600,000. This contingency plus our “Owners” contingency of nearly $500,000 allows for over $1 million in project contingency (which is typically reserved for discovering unexpected site issues like rock or bad soils – of which rock is not present and any bad soil expense would be nominal). Also, we have included all the “bells & whistles” in these estimates. In consultation with our Owners Rep and members from our Board and Renovation Committee (Dwight Stone, Randy Elliott, and Richard Beard), we are confident that we can actually come in under budget. Please know that everyone involved on behalf of the Club was very upset and concerned about the poor pricing guidance that we received in connection with the first iteration of the renovation project, and we are all very sensitive to a repeat mistake. We are confident that the estimates presented to you – this time – are conservative and achievable. Can we phase the project? The short answer is yes. However, rightly or wrongly, the prevailing thought was “do it once, and do it right”. Just to mobilize all the equipment to address the Pavilion and Pool situation is disruptive (crossing two fairways) and expensive. If we were to phase the project, we may regret later that we did not tackle everything at once – one disruption with a cost that is known that would undoubtedly be more expensive later. Our monthly dues seem awfully high. How do our dues compare with other country clubs? Golf Courses
Clubhouses
Paddle Tennis
Indoor Tennis
Pool Facilities
Greensboro Country Club
2
2
Yes
Yes
2
15,000
522
175
48
$744.50
Starmount Forest Sedgefield Forsyth Alamance Old Town Greenville CC Carolina CC CCV (Member & Spouse) CCV (Member & Spouse & 2 Kids)
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2
No No Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes
Yes No No No No No Offsite Yes Yes
1 1 1 1 1 2 Adult & Youth Adult & Youth Adult & Youth
8,000 12,000 35,000 6,500 45,000 37,000 63,000 75,000 75,400
442 580 615 486 645 545 620 818 964
110 95 100 15 125 59 -
40 65
$592.00 $645.00 $710.00 $641.00 $735.00 $710.00 $739.00 $818.00 $964.00
Club Name
Initiation Fee
Operating Capital Service Total Monthly Dues Dues Fee/F&B Min Expense vs. GCC
-
-
55 75 40 60
($152.50) ($99.50) ($34.50) ($103.50) ($9.50) ($34.50) ($5.50) $73.50 $219.50
The above table represents the equivalent membership as that of a Senior dues paying member at GCC.
How are we confident that we can deliver excellent service in the new and improved venues when service is inconsistent today? Over the last 18 to 24 months, service has been and continues to be a challenge- especially during COVID-19. While Terra and her team have made positive strides in this regard, the improvements have not been consistent. The newly designed and more streamlined Family Grill, 1909 Adult Grill, and DRT venues and the new, modern and streamlined, kitchen will allow for greatly improved operational efficiency, both with respect to service in the dining venues and within the kitchen. Both Terra Waldron and the Board recognize this challenge, and we are taking steps, right now, to make more immediate improvements to reduce the employee turnover rate and improve staff training. The Finance Committee has prepared a budget which will allow Terra and her executive team to attract a higher caliber employee through increased wages. In addition, Terra has created a new position that will be responsible for training and additional oversight in all venues. Why does the parking situation keep getting kicked down the road? We have explored expanding our parking by adding an overflow parking lot at the front entrance to our club. The cost of adding 48 additional parking spaces was estimated to cost over $1 million (which included asphalt, curb & gutter, storm water connections, and lighting). The Renovation Committee and the Board of Directors concluded that spending nearly $21,000 per parking space was not a good use of funds. However, we did engage our landscape architect to design an overflow parking area along Sunset Drive, with no change in location, which will provide the space for parking at the same level or greater than what was originally presented to the membership. The goal is to balance the occasional (or event driven) need for additional parking while preserving a certain look and feel from our neighbors across the street. These landscape enhancement renderings have been shared with our neighbors along Sunset Drive and were well received with only minor comments, which will be incorporated into a future plan. The Renovation Committee was very pleased and thankful for the constructive feedback, concerns, and willingness to find common ground with our neighbors. Additionally, I want to mention that Terra Waldron and her operations team are actively taking a hard look at the events that put pressure on our parking infrastructure, and she is optimistic that we can significantly reduce the number of occasions where parking presents a problem. This can be achieved through a combination of several things: 1) better awareness and internal communication regarding the timing and scheduling of intra-club events; 2) the use of valet car services (which we have used before at our Holiday Gala where cars are parked off-site); and 3) more discipline around the profitability of certain events where many (and in some cases most) of the guests are non-members (in other words - in exchange for any parking inconvenience to our members from largely non-member events, there should be more disciplined and appropriate profitability).
How did the project go from an approved $13.4 million to $5 million over budget ($18+ million), and now we are voting on a project that exceeds the over-budgeted initial project? The short answer is that the $13.4 million baseline was bad information – that simple. The longer answer is that we are working with a very tight piece of real estate where everything is connected to each other and challenging to reach. So, the more you really investigate phasing the project, the more you reach the conclusion that the remobilization costs, second round of disruption and operational loss, and the uncertainty of future construction costs and interest rates, the more the Board and the Finance and Audit Committee concluded “do it once, and do it right”. It is also important to consider the total debt that the membership approved at the last vote. The approved project cost was $13.4 million plus refinancing existing debt of $3 million for total exposure of $16.4 million. As mentioned previously in this communication, our total debt as of this writing is $1.6 million and is projected to be $1.1 million by December - before we would have drawn the first dollar from a construction loan. This $1.1 million is representative of working capital needs (the timing differences and financing needs of our receivables, inventory, and our accounts payable). Our proposed debt structure includes a $1.5 million working capital line of credit and an $18.5 million construction loan for a total credit facility of $20 million (or $3.6 million more than what was authorized at the previous vote. What is this we are hearing about a Farm only membership? Explain more about the future of the Farm campus? As most of you are aware, membership trends have presented a challenge – not just for GCC, but all clubs in smaller or tertiary markets. Our two-campus model makes this an even greater challenge as we have two of everything. The Farm golf course is the preferred course amongst our golfing community, but the Farm facility is significantly underutilized as a second campus relative to its annual operating expenses. While some may say (or even scream), “sell the Farm”, that may be too abrupt without first trying new things and new financial models, such as a new category of membership and/or user fees associated with multiple facilities. For now, the Board has approved, at least in theory, the addition of a new category of membership at the Farm. The details of which are still being finalized. What was presented was a recommendation of up to 100 new members that would have the privilege of use at the Farm campus only. There is concern that if we filled all 100 memberships, we could experience ripple effects or unintended consequences in getting tee times or tennis court reservations. Therefore, there is a consensus that any new membership program would have to be implemented in smaller increments (maybe 25 new memberships at a time), which would provide time to digest what we did and revisit things like: Based on the demand, was the initiation fee set too low? Were the operating and capital dues set too low? Are we experiencing scheduling conflicts?, etc.
Approximately 73% of our membership base lives within 3 miles of the Irving Park campus. In many respects, having a second campus with a second (and far superior) golf course has been a wonderful amenity – but, it has come at a cost. The annual losses incurred have prevented us from allocating capital to make necessary repairs or build appropriate reserves - contributing to what is now $5 to $7 million of deferred maintenance at the Irving Park campus. As the erosion of membership continues and as Greensboro struggles to reinvent itself and gain firm economic footing, we may be forced to revisit our two-campus model. The good news is that we will have options if things go from our current situation of bad to something much worse. We could develop a new strategy with our second campus (sale, spin off, new membership programs, etc.) that could immediately generate $1.5 to $2.0 million in annual savings (even if we gave it away). Conversely, if you believe that we will get through this health pandemic (either through a vaccine or herd immunity), and that our economy will recover, then there is hope that these needed (and AWESOME) improvements we are making to the Irving Park Campus might generate some new member interest and help alter the course of our membership trajectory.