September Market Insights - Nantucket Real Estate

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST COMMERCIAL SALE

HIGHEST RESIDENTIAL SALE

$32,500,000

$2,400,000

28 INDIA STREET & 17 ROSE LANE MARKETED FOR [381 Days]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

REVIEW

ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2021

Transactions

FY 2020

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

51% d

350

$978,734

49% d

$894,596

7

-36% f

6.3

96%

94%

2d

94%

Active Listings (Sept)

152

325

-53% f

359

Months Supply of Inventory

2.2

9.7

-77% f

11.2

61

121

-50% f

66

Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

509

337

$1,459,174 4.5

Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price

New Contracts (Sept)

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2011–21

# of Transactions

Despite a pervasive shortage in available property inventory, Nantucket real estate continued to smash historic sales records and is poised yet again to set its highest annual sales volume in history. While September 2021 was the second consecutive month to trail the exceptional monthly activity from the latter part of 2020, home sales surpassed the $1 billion threshold, and the island saw a new high watermark for the sale price of a contiguous property. September 2021 activity included 77 transactions totaling $277 million, a respective decline of 32 percent and 22 percent from one year ago but still substantially higher than the five-year average for both datapoints. This brought year-to-date sales through September 30, 2021, to 509 transactions totaling $1.46 billion.

With preliminary October sales data and a robust transaction pipeline, the Nantucket real estate market just may see a $2 billion year. Here are Fisher’s September Market Insights…

$4,500,000

58B MAIN STREET MARKETED FOR [28 Days]

Dollar Volume

SEPT 21

42 EASTON STREET (EAST & WEST) PRIVATE SALE

FISHER’S

HIGHEST LAND SALE

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3

# of Transactions

© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES SUMMARY

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT

HOME SALES SURPASS $1B THROUGH THIRD QUARTER

NEW HIGH WATERMARK SET

2021

2020

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

330

260

27% d

246

$1,130,764,286

$871,830,162

30% d

$729,096,250

Avg. Selling Price

$3,426,558

$3,353,193

2% d

$2,889,630

Median Selling Price

$2,700,000

$2,562,500

5% d

$2,154,200

4.0

7.5

-46% f

6.3

96%

93%

3d

94%

Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

94%

89%

5d

90%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

155%

134%

21d

135%

•

SEPT 21

•

For the first time in island history, single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) surpassed $1 billion by the end of the third quarter. As of September 30, 2021, total activity measured 330 transactions totaling $1.13 billion. This is 27 percent higher on a transaction basis and 30 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period in 2020. As compared to the five-year average, transaction figures were 34 percent higher while dollar volume was up 55 percent. On a monthly basis, September single-family home sales measured 62 transactions totaling $251 million, a respective 30 percent and 24 percent respective decrease from September 2019, and the second consecutive month to trail 2020 monthly figures.

There are several current and notable market trends that are evident in September transactions. The first is that with limited property inventory available, we are seeing an increasing number of private home sales, sales where the property was not formally listed for sale in the MLS prior to transfer. To satisfy buyer demand, agents are seeking off-market opportunities for their clients. Another trend, which should come as no surprise given current market dynamics, is that there is very little transaction negotiability. In fact, for publicly marketed transactions, the average sale price as compared to the original list price measured 97 percent for September home sales. Third, the average marketing time continued to plummet measuring just 1.9 months for September 2021 transactions. This compares to 7.5 months for the same period one year ago. And, finally, it appears that the market, and the dearth of inventory to meet the insatiable demand, may finally be dictating the pace of transactions. September 2021 marked the second consecutive month to trail 2020 activity by a double-digit percentage margin.

Number of Records •

September transactions were led by the highest contiguous property sale in Nantucket history, the $32.5 million sale of 42 Easton Street. While the sale was recorded as two transactions, one for each condominium unit, it set a new high watermark for the island (as least as it relates to an actual transfer -- there are plenty of properties “worth” more). The previous record for a contiguous property sale was the $27.5 million sale of 11 & 15 Cathcart Road in 2010.

•

Even without this notable sale, it’s been another remarkable year for the island’s high-end real estate market. Through September 30, 2021, there were 12 ultra-high-end ($10M+) single-family home sales.

This is four times the volume from one year ago and double the volume for the five-year average.

Historically, the high-end of the market sees most of its transaction activity in the fourth quarter so we expect 2021 will surpass all previous high-end records.

•

Aside from the upper end of the market, two other price points saw a rise in year-over-year activity as a percentage of the whole: $1 million to $2 million sales (which have so far tallied 100 transactions) and home sales between $3 million and $4 million, which saw a five-percentage point increase from one year ago. Nearly every other price point held steady or declined as compared to 2020.

VACANT LAND & MARKET INDICATOR

VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY

CONTRACT ACTIVITY BY QUARTER

LOT SALES ENJOYING A HISTORIC YEAR 2021

Total Transactions

2020

NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY RECEDED

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

98

52

88% d

58

$151,363,622

$74,219,700

104% d

$83,342,019

Avg. Selling Price

$1,544,527

$1,427,302

8% d

$1,375,161

Median Selling Price

$1,100,000

$962,500

14% d

$952,500

7.1

4.9

46% d

7.5

97%

96%

1d

95%

95%

94%

1d

92%

137%

127%

9d

129%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value •

•

•

With single-family inventory at record lows, the market for raw land has seen an exceptional boost in activity. Through September 30, 2021, there were 98 transactions totaling $151 million, a respective increase of 88 percent and 104 percent from the same period one year ago and substantially more activity as compared to the last few years. In fact, the 98 transactions through just the third quarter of this year well surpassed full year results for the each of the last five years.

These land transactions ranged from the $280,000 sale of a 4,000 square foot lot on Larrabee Lane in the mid-island area, to an $8 million sale of a .57-acre parcel of land in the Cliff area.

Nearly one third of the lot sales that took place stemmed from large-parcel subdivisions that were created in recent years including Sandpiper Place (12 transactions), Cannonbury Lane (11 transactions), Grey Lady Lane (9 transactions) and a few others. Six more could be categorized as “higher end” transactions as the land alone is worth more than $5 million prior to the construction of any improvements. And the balance was comprised of a variety of different parcels across all areas of the island.

Despite the varied characteristics of each land sale, average sales discounts from the list price were identical to single-family home metrics at 3 percent, but overall marketing times were significantly longer at 7.1 months. Like all property types, vacant lot inventory was drastically lower than one year ago with just 14 properties listed for sale as of September 30, 2021. Twelve months ago, there were 55 land parcels listed for sale.

July

August

September

•

New purchase activity remained remarkably strong in August. Though monthly figures were down significantly from last year’s monstrous record, August contracts were higher than all other previous years’ levels for the same period. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 83 contracts, down from 137 contracts one year ago but higher than the 74 contracts noted in July 2021.

•

Most of the August contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2020 and even the five-year average. Notably, the ultra-highend of the market saw the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in contract activity, rising from four percent of August 2020 contracts to eight percent of August 2021 contracts.

•

As of the time of this report, September sales were slightly more than $100 million, far less than the $280 million for the same time one year ago. Based on this and inventory levels, it’s likely that the market will see a drop off in sales volume compared to 2020. That said, we know there will be a handful of higher end, off-market transactions that will buoy transaction volume as we head into the final four months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES HOME SALES SURPASS $1B THROUGH THIRD QUARTER 2021

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

330

260

27% d

246

$1,130,764,286

$871,830,162

30% d

$729,096,250

Avg. Selling Price

$3,426,558

$3,353,193

2% d

$2,889,630

Median Selling Price

$2,700,000

$2,562,500

5% d

$2,154,200

4.0

7.5

-46% f

6.3

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

93%

3d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

94%

89%

5d

90%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

155%

134%

21d

135%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

SEPT 21

2020

•

For the first time in island history, single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) surpassed $1 billion by the end of the third quarter. As of September 30, 2021, total activity measured 330 transactions totaling $1.13 billion. This is 27 percent higher on a transaction basis and 30 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period in 2020. As compared to the five-year average, transaction figures were 34 percent higher while dollar volume was up 55 percent. On a monthly basis, September single-family home sales measured 62 transactions totaling $251 million, a respective 30 percent and 24 percent respective decrease from September 2019, and the second consecutive month to trail 2020 monthly figures.

•

There are several current and notable market trends that are evident in September transactions.

The first is that with limited property inventory available, we are seeing an increasing number of private home sales, sales where the property was not formally listed for sale in the MLS prior to transfer. To satisfy buyer demand, agents are seeking off-market opportunities for their clients.

Another trend, which should come as no surprise given current market dynamics, is that there is very little transaction negotiability. In fact, for publicly marketed transactions, the average sale price as compared to the original list price measured 97 percent for September home sales. Third, the average marketing time continued to plummet measuring just 1.9 months for September 2021 transactions. This compares to 7.5 months for the same period one year ago. And, finally, it appears that the market, and the dearth of inventory to meet the insatiable demand, may finally be dictating the pace of transactions. September 2021 marked the second consecutive month to trail 2020 activity by a double-digit percentage margin.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT

SEPT 21

NEW HIGH WATERMARK SET

•

September transactions were led by the highest contiguous property sale in Nantucket history, the $32.5 million sale of 42 Easton Street. While the sale was recorded as two transactions, one for each condominium unit, it set a new high watermark for the island (as least as it relates to an actual transfer -- there are plenty of properties “worth” more). The previous record for a contiguous property sale was the $27.5 million sale of 11 & 15 Cathcart Road in 2010.

•

Even without this notable sale, it’s been another remarkable year for the island’s high-end real estate market. Through September 30, 2021, there were 12 ultra-high-end ($10M+) single-family home sales. This is four times the volume from one year ago and double the volume for the fiveyear average. Historically, the high-end of the market sees most of its transaction activity in the fourth quarter so we expect 2021 will surpass all previous high-end records.

•

Aside from the upper end of the market, two other price points saw a rise in year-over-year activity as a percentage of the whole: $1 million to $2 million sales (which have so far tallied 100 transactions) and home sales between $3 million and $4 million, which saw a five-percentage point increase from one year ago. Nearly every other price point held steady or declined as compared to 2020.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY LOT SALES ENJOYING A HISTORIC YEAR

2021

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

98

52

88% d

58

$151,363,622

$74,219,700

104% d

$83,342,019

Avg. Selling Price

$1,544,527

$1,427,302

8% d

$1,375,161

Median Selling Price

$1,100,000

$962,500

14% d

$952,500

7.1

4.9

46% d

7.5

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

97%

96%

1d

95%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

95%

94%

1d

92%

137%

127%

9d

129%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

SEPT 21

2020

•

With single-family inventory at record lows, the market for raw land has seen an exceptional boost in activity. Through September 30, 2021, there were 98 transactions totaling $151 million, a respective increase of 88 percent and 104 percent from the same period one year ago and substantially more activity as compared to the last few years. In fact, the 98 transactions through just the third quarter of this year well surpassed full year results for the each of the last five years.

•

These land transactions ranged from the $280,000 sale of a 4,000 square foot lot on Larrabee Lane in the mid-island area, to an $8 million sale of a .57-acre parcel of land in the Cliff area.

Nearly one third of the lot sales that took place stemmed from large-parcel subdivisions that were created in recent years including Sandpiper Place (12 transactions), Cannonbury Lane (11 transactions), Grey Lady Lane (9 transactions) and a few others. Six more could be categorized as “higher end” transactions as the land alone is worth more than $5 million prior to the construction of any improvements. And the balance was comprised of a variety of different parcels across all areas of the island.

•

Despite the varied characteristics of each land sale, average sales discounts from the list price were identical to single-family home metrics at 3 percent, but overall marketing times were significantly longer at 7.1 months. Like all property types, vacant lot inventory was drastically lower than one year ago with just 14 properties listed for sale as of September 30, 2021. Twelve months ago, there were 55 land parcels listed for sale.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY BY QUARTER

SEPT 21

NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY RECEDED

July

August

September

•

New purchase activity remained remarkably strong in August. Though monthly figures were down significantly from last year’s monstrous record, August contracts were higher than all other previous years’ levels for the same period. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 83 contracts, down from 137 contracts one year ago but higher than the 74 contracts noted in July 2021.

•

Most of the August contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2020 and even the five-year average. Notably, the ultra-high-end of the market saw the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in contract activity, rising from four percent of August 2020 contracts to eight percent of August 2021 contracts.

•

As of the time of this report, September sales were slightly more than $100 million, far less than the $280 million for the same time one year ago. Based on this and inventory levels, it’s likely that the market will see a drop off in sales volume compared to 2020. That said, we know there will be a handful of higher end, off-market transactions that will buoy transaction volume as we head into the final four months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6