26 IrrigationNZ’s new leader Vol 19 No 41, October 26, 2020
Covid hit to exports, incomes Neal Wallace
F
neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz
ORECASTS that this year’s export lamb crop could be below 18 million for the first time has observers questioning what the impact will be. Beef + Lamb NZ’s (B+LNZ) new season outlook is forecasting the value of meat exports to fall $1 billion to $7.4bn in the coming year due to market uncertainty from the covid-19 pandemic and increased competition for beef markets. The report forecasts a lamb crop of 22.3 million, of which 17.4m will be processed for export. Last year the crop was 23.3m, of which 18.7m were processed. AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad says new season tailing figures will be released next month, but if they are consistent with this forecast, then it takes the sector to a new level. “It raises questions about how we manage it,” she said. “Are lower supplies going to push up prices or have they
reached a point where they will not have that impact? “What is the tipping point?” Croad says an expected average lamb weight of 19kg will help compensate for fewer lambs, but the forecast also raises questions about how meat companies will react to the smaller pool of lambs. “It is quite scary when you see breeding stock numbers are stable, but there are fewer hoggets and lamb numbers have dropped by one million and slaughter numbers have fallen below 18 million,” she said. B+LNZ is forecasting a 26% decline in the average pre-tax profit on sheep and beef farms in the coming year, with export lamb receipts falling 15% compared to last year, co-products 8% and revenue from beef and veal exports by 9%. Chief economist Andrew Burtt is forecasting the average sheep and beef farm will make a pre-tax profit of $115,100 this season, 26% lower than last year. For an average North Island farmer, the pre-tax profit is 25% lower at $111,700. The effect is more pronounced for those on the East Coast due to drought where the decline is 45%. The average pre-tax profit for
farmersweekly.co.nz
$3.95
Incl GST
Gizzy Shrek fleece sets record
NEW LOOK: Former world champion blade shearer Peter Casserly had the honours of shearing Gizzy Shrek, helped by Ginger Anderson. Photo: Liam Clayton, Gisborne Herald at Muriwai, where she had been eluding muster for five years. Watched by a big crowd, former world champion blade shearer Peter Casserly took about 15 minutes to remove her fleece.
THE Poverty Bay A & P show in Gisborne had an attraction with a difference this year – Gizzy Shrek was relieved of her jersey that she had been growing for many years. Gizzy Shrek heralded from Wairakaia Station
South Island farmers is picked to fall 27% to $119,400 due to falling sheep revenue. Burtt says the forecasts also reflect the impact on prices of increased competitiveness in our main beef markets. Despite the uncertainty, he expects average values for export red meat to be similar or slightly above five-year averages.
“China’s demand for meat protein continues to be fuelled by pork shortages that have resulted from African Swine Fever, and there is growing demand for high quality, nutritionally rich proteins,” he said. B+LNZ’s chief insights officer Jeremy Baker says the global
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While the fleece itself weighed in at 14.5kg, well short of the world record, the fleece length of 58cm was 3cm longer than the previous Guinness Book of Records, which was set in Masterton in 2018.
Are lower supplies going to push up prices or have they reached a point where they will not have that impact? Mel Croad AgriHQ analyst
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