Trend forecasting is the process of using market research and consumer data to formulate predictions about consumers future buying habits and preferences. The way to start is by looking a culture and join the dots to the product. Most products designed will have gone through a trend forecasting process so the items and future proofed to seem desirable to us. Part of the trend forecasting process involves observing micro moments of consumer trends. Big drivers commonly referred to as macro trends are salified first. Macro trends are major shifts in consumer behaviour that dictate our business environment in the long term. Micro trends are one off, short lived, under the radar trends that’s lasting effect is only 3 – 5 years. To start predicting a trend you have to first look at the big drivers and macro trends.
Althoughnot there yet many people have been questioning if we are heading for another recession as the cost of living is currently a huge issue. Inflation is currently at 8.8% in September 2022 and is predicted to stay high through out winter. Even if there isn’t a recession approaching the cost-of-living crisis is enough to make Britain panic and feel the pinch. Since Spring gas and
electricity prices have rose by 54% and is predicted to rise by another 40% throughout winter. Interest is at its highest in 14 years which means bad things for businesses and the housing market. For businesses it means that they will stop investments, lay people off which in turn means the government will be getting less tax. This negative chain of events ultimately leads to economic decline.
Thisthreat of a recession is not just Britain’s issue but is also international, with the issue affecting the US as well. The probability of a recession in the US is currently at 96% in the next 12 months. The US also has high inflation which means households will only be spending their money on what they truly deem as important such as food, fuel and bills. This decreasing consumer spending makes a recession likely in the US.
Gen z is currently between the ages of 1025 and the greater percentage of them have full time jobs and are looking for a property. Although with the cost-of-living crisis and glooming student loans the youth of today are finding it hard to get on the property ladder. What this means for their spending habits e.g., Klarna and Clearpay. For some consumers that are lucky enough to keep their jobs they probably won’t receive a pay rise and so if their pay stays the same but cost of items increases, they will be less likely to buy unnecessary items. They will only be spending money on basics such as food and fuel and will deem items of clothing as not as important. Which in turn could seriously damage company sales.
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Fig 2: A dole queue in Brixton in 1981- The Guardian
hit the UK at the beginning of the 1980s, it was just after the election of Margret Thatcher in 1979. Before this though inflation was at 10% and 1.5 million people were unemployed. This only got worse and in 1982 was the worst employment rate in 50 years with 3 million people without a job. It took a lot longer than expected to get employment rates to rise again, and still in 1989 it sat at 1.6 million. This recession changed the whole way that Britain was as an economy. Before this recession it was a manufacturing economy but after the trade union movement Britain was more focused on financial services.
like in the 80s after Covid-19 Britain’s workplace adapted and changed completely. After most people still successfully worked and earned money from home, many people saw no point in spending money on commuting into work when they can do the same job at home. the peak of the pandemic many households and business never felt the bulk of the recession due to the furlough scheme. However, as the virus cases started to decrease the furlough scheme stopped and that is when it stated to feel like the recession in the 80s. so are we really going back to the 80s?
Itisn’t hard to assume that a change in the economy has a knock-on effect in all industry’s including the fashion industry. As people feel the pinch it means that they only want to spend their money on things they view as essential, such as food, bills and fuel. People stop spending more on clothes as they are not necessary, which means designers need to draw them in with innovative designs. As the average consumer might only be able to afford one thing every few months so they must make sure their purchase has quality. Something new needs to excite buyers. There are many previous examples of recessions bringing newness in fashion. Just two years after the French economy was ruined by the second World War, Dior created her ‘New Look’ dress. Women grasped on to the new style as it captured their imaginations by selling a dream of what it was like before the war. After the 80s recession neon colours and bold silhouettes really took over the fashion trends. Think shoulder pads and striking
patterns. The Great Recession of 2008 bought about indie sleaze, a trend that mixed 90s punk with 80s opulence to create a messy, model off duty look. All of these trends that grew after a recession created clothes that broke previous boundaries and shocked consumers. By buying maximalist clothing it allowed people to escape their everyday life and the misery of the economic state of the world. So, all these recessions led to major changes in the way people dressed, however we are now in different times, especially with social media. Barriers have now seemingly shattered leaving people to allow to pick the trend that they want to follow, there could 5 different trends circulating but this allows people to choose the one that they really connect with. “We now have a cacophony of trends happening all at once. Designers are referencing the ’90s all over the place, with chokers and little slip dresses, but the ’70s are also having a moment.”
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2017Photography by Dham Srifuengfung
he 80s was rife with angst and protest, and in this decade, it held some of the most influential and memorable protests of all time. The miners strike, section 28 protestors and the poll tax riot to name a few. One of the biggest protests during the 80s involved a new law that Margaret Thatcher released, ‘section 28’. The law essentially prohibited authorities and institutions from assisting homosexuality and stopped local councils from funding gay initiatives. People were outraged and set to the streets to fight for the rights of the LGBT community. Massive protests were help in most major cities, the most memorable ones were in Manchester and London. They didn’t win the protests, but it led to a huge civil rights movement. During 1984 to 1985 there was a national mine strike as Margaret Thatcher had announced that 20 coal mines would be closing down.
However, the strike didn’t work, and more and more mines shut down, eventually leaving the last colliery to shut down in 2009. Obviously, protests weren’t just happening in the UK they were happening globally as well. By the middle of the 80s AIDS was already known about and had already killed so many people, the gay and lesbian community felt they had no help from the government and were furious. So, demonstrations started in New York with protests at city hall and all on down wall street. Mike Petrelis, a gay man living in New York at the time, describes “All those men and women screaming at the top of their lungs”. This decade led to many activists make a great change for the better and people today still look back at the achievements in awe.
Growing up on technology means that Gen-z is constantly hearing about social issues, this can cause anxiety about events that they feel as though people and governments should care more about. Social media is a much more comfortable place for Gen-Z to show their support for the causes that they care about. One way Gen-Z can show their support is through hashtags, it allows people to find information about issues. Although many people believe this as ‘slacktivism’, not all of Gen-Z are staying behind the screens. When this generation all come together, they can achieve
real change. Some recent protests include climate change, LGBT+ rights, racial injustice. In some circumstances Gen-Z use social media to assists their public protests. For example, in 2021 many University students shared on Instagram and Facebook that they were going to boycott clubs in their towns to help stop spiking, the whole country followed after with almost every University showing support in the protest. Gen-z has come of age in difficult times, and they never know what is around the corner. “They are driven. They are purposeful”.
Although many might not agree, fashion does have influence and can act as a form of rebellion. This is shown by all of the times fashion has been used to protest or just used as a statement during a protest. An early example of protest dressing was during the suffragist movement. The suffragettes put a lot of effort into their outfits whilst protesting, they would often wear their Sunday bests. Votes for Women, declared: “The suffragettes dress themselves in their smartest clothes”. The suffragettes also picked out a colour scheme to further their cause. They picked green, purple and white which represented hope, loyalty and dignity. They would wear these colours on sashes and pin badges. Big stores such as Selfridges and liberty helped movement by selling tricoloured rosettes, badges and ribbons. A more recent example of protest dressing happened in 2017 and it was called the Pussyhat project. They stood on the streets of Washington to protest President Trump. Everyone wore pink hand knitted or crotched hats with cat ears on. The hats created a sea of pink showing “that we stand together”. Not only does fashion help protests but protests can sometimes make their way into the fashion world, with countless accounts of celebrities making statement at a fashion show or event. At the 2021 Met Gala actress Cara Delevinge wore a top with the phrase “PEG THE PATRIARCHY” on it. Another example of a celebrity voice their opinion using fashion was Stormzy during his 2019 Glastonbury set. He wore a stab proof vest with a British flag painted on by Banksy. This was a comment on knife crime and racial inequality in Britain.
Protests are always accompanied by signs; they are usually handmade and consist of a piece of cardboard on a stick with a slogan written on. People can be very creative with protest signs, puns and witty sayings are often seen next to serious signs to show how different people cope with serious situations that they wish to protest. Artists also can get involved in confronting political and social issues with their work. A famous example of an artist using his work
to spark a discussion was Keith Harding, who was diagnosed with Aids in the late 80s and so created a poster named “Ignorance = Fear / Silence = Death” and he would create many more artworks based around educating people on the seriousness of performing safe sex and the deafening silence around HIV. So, whether you are a famous artist or just using what you have found in your home there is no doubt that everyone can make protest art.
It is very clear that 80s culture is still very relevant today and I will discuss some of the most relevant pieces which show this. The comeback of important pop culture moments could be more evidence that trends of the time will be remerging in 2024.
Madonna is currently writing and directing her own biopic which will star Julia Garner as the famous singer. Madonna became famous in the 80s in a mostly male dominated industry. Some of her most popular songs include ‘Like a Virgin’, ‘Material Girl’ and ‘Like a Prayer’. Madonna had a very individual style, her looks often consisted of bright makeup, big bows and tons of jewellery. Her style became instantly recognisable and was the inspiration of many people for the decade. Although there is no release date set for the biopic, I’m sure we can expect recreations of her most iconic looks, which could influence a revival in her fashion to a generation who did not experience Madonna’s life in the 80s.
Top Gun is a film released in 1986 and is about a cocky pilot joining an elite fighter school, he competes to be the top polit and for the attention of his flight instructor. The film was highly successful with grossing $357 million globally, the highest grossing film of that year. However, the new Top Gun: Maverick made over $1 billion globally. The new film seemed to take everything that the first did well and make it even better. This film could be the start of 80s movie revivals as Maverick shows that if done right could be very successful.
There is no question that mullets had a moment in the 80s, it was adopted by rockers and punks. It was featured in movies such as the very popular “Dirty Dancing”. Many celebrities had a mullet in the 80s, some include Billy ray Cyrus, Cher, Jane Fonda and James Hetfield. However, it is very clear to see that they have made a comeback in a major way, it just takes a one second scroll on TikTok to see somebody with a mullet. IT has been seen on popular celebrities such as Lil Nas X and Rihanna. However, it might seem like a cool hairstyle, but it does have a deeper meaning. It is a very androgynous hairstyle as it isn’t seen as belonging to a specific gender. It is accepted to be worn on everyone. Many people want to give credit to the LGBTQ community for helping popularise the hairstyle. The mullet is seen as a protest against conventional beauty which is what makes it so cool. This shows that Gen-Z can protest with anything even their haircut.
From an untrained eye, 80s trends may seem tacky and garish but when taking a deeper look, you can understand that these trends supported the social activism that was also present in the 80s. The obvious major trend in the 1980s was the power suit, it had an exaggerated silhouette with shoulder pads and an oversized fit. The suit became a symbol of feminism, the design of the suit coincided with second wave feminism. The second wave feminist movement was caused by the end of the second world war, as men had returned from war and women were expected to return to their duties as a housewife. Women wanted to be given the opportunity to have the same jobs as men. This is where the power suit came in, it broke the gender roles and women could demand respect and equality. Some of the prominent trends were generated by punks.
So Clashing prints, studs and leather were all crucial points of the punk style. People involved in the punk subculture had the beliefs that all humans should be treated equally and with respect. They would often be protesting about social causes that they believed such as LGBTQ+, racial injustice and they were very well known for being anti-establishment. The trends that punks created eventually bubbled up onto the runway and much of the public jumped onto the style. However not all trends had a meaning, for example double denim had no deeper significance. Guess Jeans was founded in 1981 and released many of its designs around the trend of double denim, which was a main cause of their growth. The Breakfast Club and Back to the Future both had their main characters wearing double denim outfits, which furthered the popularity of the trend.
The makeup in the 80s was all about creativity. It was bold and fearless. The eyes were the focus of each look with bright colours being brushed onto the lids. It wasn’t neat but it was playful and daring. The eyelids weren’t the only part of the face that were getting all the fun, the cheeks were often smothered in blush and the lips were accessorised with a bold tone. Earlier in my research I discussed the hair trend of the mullet, but many women opted for a different style. The perm was a permanent hair procedure that allowed the hair to stay in curls for months at a time. Almost every celebrity in the 80s man or woman fashioned a perm and the bigger the better. The makeup and hair from this decade were innovative and is still a place to look for inspiration.
During the 80s is when Vivienne Westwood took her name as a couture designer and was noticed by everyone around the world. It was in this decade that she worked with Malcolm McLaren and their final collection together was Witches in 1983. Named the early years, between 1981 and 1987 Westwood made 7 collections
in total. Some most relevant to my research include Hypnos (1984), Punkature (1983), Clint Eastwood (1984) and Witches (1983). Hypnos took inspiration from gay subcultures and took the idea of sportwear and turned it high fashion. Punkature, as the name suggests, is a mixture between punk and couture. Because of the
nuclear war at the time Westwood decided to experiment with what fashion might look like after war, this created a very dystopian collection. When you think of Vivienne Westwood you think PUNK, so as I research the punks of the 80s and their rebellion causes, I must see how Westwood led the Punks with her designs.
There is no question that Gen Z feels a huge connection to Vivienne Westwood but why? From the infamous pearl necklace to her 90 runway shows, Westwood dominates Gen-Z’s Pinterest boards. She had always been a rebel at heart and has always been so public about her views. She uses her designs to express her ideas on the government and the climate. A recent protest of hers was at her spring Red Label where her and the models carried cards saying, “climate revolution” and “fracking is a crime”. I belive therefore Gen-Z resonates so much with her. This generation has very strong views on gender equality, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and abortion. Not only does Westwood’s views align with gen-zs but their recent obsession with the 90s and 00s made Westwood by the younger generations as one of the best designers in the world.
Adesigner I believe will become influential in this trend is Charles Jeffery Loverboy, a Glaswegian designer and illustrator. Jeffery’s designs are inherently British but with more edge. He doesn’t believe in genderless fashion; he just thinks fashion is fashion and gender should have nothing to do with it. Niall Underwood calls Jeffery’s designs made for “a post gender world”. His brand has created a community for people that want to express themselves. This is something that has helped his brand grow as gen z can trust him and can know that his beliefs align with theirs. Also harry styles has been known to love his designs, wearing them in his shows. His designs involve a lot of pattern clashing, large accessories and bold silhouettes. The similarities between Jeffery’s work and trends during the 80s are quite obvious especially the tartan. Jeffery’s use of tartan in his designs originates from his home country Scotland and he always wears a kilt on a regular basis. He is known to use his own style to drive his ideas.
Another brand that will have a resurgence in popularity during this trend is Moschino. Although some of their clothes don’t scream 80s, they are bold, and some might say tacky, which is the embodiment of the style in the 80s. Their runway shows involve fanciful designs, they are child like and experiment with fun concepts. Their recent women’s SS23 show follows the theme of hearts, with almost every outfit involving hearts in it, whether that be earrings, hat or bracelet. This collection also contains a lot of suits (as do all their collections), which was a major trend in the 80s and could be making a comeback in 2024. Their designs often involve strong shoulders another trend that comes from the decade. Their men’s PREFALL 23 collection tells a different story that also relates to the future trend. Whilst the women’s collections encapsulate the chic styles from the decade, the men’s collection is the complete opposite. It follows in the footsteps of the punk movement in the 80s. Jeremy Scott, in an interview with vogue, explains that this collection obviously takes inspiration from the many crises happening in the world. One coat has a graffiti motif that reads “Destroy to rebuild. We have to fight for everything we believe in,” Scott says that “Those sentiments still have validity because we’re fighting about things globally”. During this interview he even speaks on Vivienne Westwood as he describes her as “A legend and an English treasure”. Their diffusion brand LOVE MOSCHINO has a very close connection to the peace sign, something that they regularly use in t shirts, bags and jackets. This connects to my trend as slogan t shirts is something that people will be wearing to show their values towards issues in the world. The price range of the diffusion brand will also help Gen-Z identify with the brand as it has a cheaper price tag. With the mixture of their daring designs and their connection to the 80s in recent collections, I have no doubt that Moschino will be a significant brand during 2024.
support companies that they believe are helping in the causes that they support. Examples of companies that follow that are paving the way in this marketing are Patagonia and Fenty. Patagonia is really sustainable and the recent news of the owner Yvon Chouinard gave away the company to a non-profit organization that combats climate change. This
about social justice and this trend takes protesting and makes it available through clothes. Although you could argue that it will also be marketed towards Gen Me as they want to seem current in the trends, but they may not understand the deeper meaning of the trend.
The bubble up effects refers to a situation where specific fashion trends and looks start from lower income groups and then work their way up through the hierarchy and eventually end up on the runway. An example of this is the 90s grunge subculture as it was worn my musicians in Seattle and eventually got so popular that designers such a Marc Jacobs and Anna sui. The trickle-down effect describes a situation where particular trends are first started by people in the top social class. Then gradually over time become to be accepted by those in the lower classes.
An example of this is the colour hot pink, it started on celebrities from brands such as Versace and became so popular that it was later being sold in mass market brands such as Pretty Little Thing. The trickle across effect describes a situation where fashion moves horizontally between groups on similar social levels. The peerto-peer influence speeds up the spread of the trend’s information greatly. My trend would use both the bubble up and the trickle across effect because it is to do with real problems with the world which will first be talked about amongst normal people.
Consumer profiling refers to the process when a data led profile is created of an organisation ideal customer. Consumers are broken down into groups pf consumers sharing similar goals, characteristics, purchase patterns and each group is given an image, name and description. There are 4 different ways to do a consumer profile. Demographic profiling refers to the use of demographic data to compile information on a set consumer group it’s the
‘who’. Geographic profiling takes the location of the consumer, the ‘where’. Psychological profiling is where you need to understand the workings of your customers mind from their habits, hobbies, interests and desires.
Behavioural profiling means tracking the behaviour of your audience provides insight for when and how to target them. By using all four, companies can fully understand their consumer and how to market to them successfully.
Colour psychology relates to the study of colours and how they can be used to market people. Everybody has their own perception of colour, and it can vary based on your age, gender and culture. A couple of examples of how colour can be perceived is with orange and yellow. These colours are next to each other on the colour wheel, but both are perceived in different ways. Orange is associated with success, confidence and bravery. Whereas yellow is related to creativity, happiness and cheer. A way to market by using colour is with colour harmony. Which refers to using colour combinations that are visually pleasing to the human eye. There are three different types of colour harmony. Monochromatic colour harmony is used by having various shades of the same colour. Complementary colour harmony is the use of colours that are opposite each other on the colour wheel. Finally triadic colour harmony is to apply three separate colours that are equidistant on the colour wheel. It is very interesting how influential colour can be on consumers and whilst predicting my trend I will think about how the colours in my trend relate to it.
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Fig 5 https://www.etsy.com/uk/listing/1180294508/kate-bush-running-up-that-hill-1930s
Fig 6 https://www.hungertv.com/editorial/the-instagram-account-reviving-80s-beauty-looks-to-follow/
Fig 7 https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.viviennewestwood.com%2Fpunkature-video%2F&psig=AOv Vaw0ODCma8YNC8lu4TZQCdCGd&ust=1670413839794000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CBAQjhxqFwoTC MDNss725PsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAu
Fig 8 https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vogue.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fvivienne-westwood-london-fash ion-week-2019-political-talking-points&psig=AOvVaw29Y7b251nh2N5P_fOAKtFn&ust=1670414416058000&source=imag es&cd=vfe&ved=0CBAQjhxqFwoTCLDgmuH45PsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAh
Fig 9 https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vogue.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fvivienne-westwood-london-fash ion-week-2019-political-talking-points&psig=AOvVaw29Y7b251nh2N5P_fOAKtFn&ust=1670414416058000&source=imag es&cd=vfe&ved=0CBAQjhxqFwoTCLDgmuH45PsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAh
https://www.lazyoaf.com/blogs/story/a-racy-night-out-with-miyako-bellizzi?crlt.pid=camp.PRkeUETWZm2L
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/dec/22/britain-still-in-recession
https://www.anothermag.com/fashion-beauty/9493/dior-coutures-new-new-look
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/nyregion/aids-activism.html
https://www.etsy.com/uk/listing/1180294508/kate-bush-running-up-that-hill-1930s
https://www.hungertv.com/editorial/the-instagram-account-reviving-80s-beauty-looks-to-follow/
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.viviennewestwood.com%2Fpunkature-video%2F&psig=AOvVaw0ODCma8YNC8lu4TZQCdCGd&ust=1670413839794000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CBAQjhxqFwoTChttps://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vogue.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fvivienne-westwood-london-fashion-week-2019-political-talking-points&psig=AOvVaw29Y7b251nh2N5P_fOAKtFn&ust=1670414416058000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CBAQjhxqFwoTCLDgmuH45PsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAh
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