BTCFLOORREMAINS ELUSIVE
MARKETSIGNALS
BitcoinExtendsDeclineForTheFourth StraightWeek
MACROUPDATE
ResilientJobs,FragileHouseholds: MixedSignalsShapetheFed’s
DecemberOutlook
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Bitcoin has officially logged its fourth consecutive weekly decline, a rare sequencenotseeninover500days,andthistime,thepullbackisbothsteeper andmoretelling.Overthepastmonth,BTChasdropped30.6percent,outpacing the 24 percent drawdown seen during its 2024 consolidation phase and extendingthefallfromtheall-timehightonearly36percent.
Thisdownturnisnʼtjustvisibleonthechart;itʼsembeddedinon-chainbehavior. Short-term holders, typically the most sensitive cohort to volatility, are capitulatingatsomeofthefastestratessincetheFTXcollapsein2022.Realised lossesfortheserecentbuyershavesurgedto$523millionperday,underscoring howtop-heavythemarkethadbecomeinthe$106K$118Krange.
Thebroadermarketdynamicsareequallystriking.Bitcoinonceagain toppedout before equities, a pattern observed earlier in 2025, and could be a signal that traditional markets still have room to correct. In crypto derivatives markets, losses are still being keenly felt. Following the $19.2 billion of losses seen on October 10th, there was another $3.9bn last week. The scale of deleveraging highlightsthedeepstressradiatingthroughfuturesandperpetualmarkets.
Seasonality, usually a reliable indicator, has offered no help. November is currently tracking at 21.3 percent, despite a decade-long history of averaging 40percentgains,andOctoberloggeditsfirstnegativecloseinsevenyears.
Meanwhile, the US economic landscape last week reflected a picture of moderationratherthanmomentum,markedbystable,butclearlycooling,labour conditions,cautiousconsumers,andpersistentweaknessinhousing.
The long-delayed September jobs report showed stronger-than-expected payroll gainsalongsideaslightriseinunemployment,reinforcingtheviewthatthelabour market is slowing in a controlled manner. With no fresh inflation data available aheadoftheDecember910FOMCmeeting,thesefiguresstrengthenthecasefor the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady. At the same time, consumer sentiment weakened notably in November, revealing growing strain from tighter credit and reduced purchasing power, while dovish remarks from New York Fed PresidentJohnWilliamstemporarilyboostedmarketexpectationsforaDecember ratecutdespitethelackofnewdata.
Housingindicators,however,remainfirmlypessimistic:builderconfidencestayed incontractionterritoryfora19thconsecutivemonth,buyertrafficremainedweak, and price incentives intensified as affordability worsened. Overall, the economy continues to cool gradually under elevated borrowing costs, with policy uncertainty and fragile sentiment pointing to a challenging path ahead for both consumersandthehousingmarket.
The past week in crypto saw meaningful moves across regulation, sovereign adoption,andcorporatestrategy.IntheUS,theWhiteHouseadvanceditsreview of an IRS proposal to join the OECDʼs global Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, signalling a push toward greater oversight of Americansʼ offshore holdings. Meanwhile,ElSalvadormadeheadlineswithahistoricone-daypurchaseof1,090 BTC,aboutUS$100million,deepeningitslong-termaccumulationstrategydespite controversy over its IMF loan commitments. Together, these developments underscore how regulatory convergence, sovereign positioning, and institutional restructuringcontinuetoshapetheevolvingcryptolandscape.
1.MarketSignals
● BitcoinExtendsDeclineForFourth ConsecutiveWeek
2.GeneralMacroUpdate
● Stronger-Than-ExpectedUSJobGains StrengthenFedCaseforNoDecemberRate Cut
● CoolingConsumerSentimentandWeak BuilderConfidenceSignalChallenging RoadAheadfortheUSHousingMarket
3.NewsFromTheCryptosphere
● WhiteHouseAdvancesReviewofIRSPlan toTaxAmericansʼForeignCryptoHoldings
● El
BitcoinExtendsDeclineforFourth ConsecutiveWeek
Lastweek,Bitcoinposteditsfourthconsecutiveweeklydecline,thefirstsuch sequenceinmorethan504days.Thelastinstanceoffourstraightredweeks occurred during the prolonged consolidation phase between March and October 2024, when the peak-to-trough drawdown reached roughly 24.1 percent.Incontrast,thecurrentcorrectionhasbeennotablysharper,witha declineof30.6percentoverthis4-weekperiod.
This weakness has been accompanied by clear signs of capitulation among short-term holders (defined as those who have owned BTC for 155 days or less).On-chain metrics show accelerated selling at a loss from this cohort, reinforcing the extent to which recent buyers have been forced to exit at mountingunrealisedlosses.
Figure1.BTC/USD4HChart.Source:Bitfinex)
BTC closed the week down 8.65 percent, with a peak-to-trough decline of 16 percent. This extends the drawdown from the all-time high to 35.91 percent, makingthecurrentcorrectionthelargestofthecycle,bothinpercentageterms and,aswediscussbelow,intermsofthescaleoflongliquidations.
BTCʼs price behaviour vis-a-vis equities is also notable. As we saw in previous correctionsinAprilandFebruary2025,BTChasrepeatedthepatternofforming atopbeforeSPXandNASDAQ.Inbothperiods,BTCformedatoparound2030 daysbeforeequitymarkets.
Similarly,thelocalbottomforBTCalsoformed714daysbeforeequities.While the SPX is only down 6.07 percent so far, and could still have room to correct further,weexpectthesamepatternintermsofcorrelationtoplayout,ifweare toformalocalbottomoverthenextfewweeks.
The severity of the current move down is underscored by the unprecedented liquidation activity. The single-day total of $19.2 billion in forced liquidations across all assets on October 10th, marked the largest liquidation event in the history of the digital asset market. An additional $3.9 billion in liquidations occurred throughout last week, highlighting the extent of the pressure facing leveragedtradersacrossperpetualandfuturesmarkets,notonlyspotinvestors.
The combination of deep price retracement and historic deleveraging reflects the magnitude of stress currently concentrated within derivatives markets, reinforcingtheimportanceofmonitoringopeninterest,fundingconditions,and volatilitymetricsasthemarketsearchesforstability.
WearealsoontracktocloseNovemberintheredwitha21.3percentreturnso far. This is historically a month that has yielded an average return of 40.8 percentsince2013andamedianofover8.2percent.ThisfollowsanOctober, that closed in the red for the first time in seven years. In the current quarter, seasonalitymetricshavefailedtoholdup.
Figure2. BitcoinMonthlyReturnsSince2013.Source:Coinglass)
The latest decline also marks the third instance since early 2024 in which BTC has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holdersʼ STH) cost-basis model. However, the level of distress among recent buyers is materially more severe this time. The seven-day Exponential Moving Average of STH realised losseshasclimbedto$523millionperday,thehighestlevelrecordedsincethe FTXcollapse.
Figure3Bitcoin-Entity-AdjustedShort-TermHolderRealizedLoss Source:Glassnode)
This scale of loss realisation reflects how top-heavy the market had become. Thesupplyaccumulatedbetween$106,000and$118,000wasfardenserthanin prior cycle peaks, resulting in a deeper layer of holders now capitulating at a loss. Such a structure implies that one of two outcomes must follow: either a meaningful resurgence in demand emerges to absorb the ongoing distribution, or the market will be forced into a longer and potentially deeper accumulation phasebeforeasustainableequilibriumcanberestored.
Stronger-Than-ExpectedUSJob GainsStrengthenFedCaseforNo DecemberRateCut
Thelong-delayedSeptemberemploymentreportdeliveredaclearerpictureofa labourmarketthatiscooling,butnotcollapsing,anoutcomethatislikelytokeep theFederalReserveonholdwhenpolicymakersmeetonDecember10.
Released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS) last Thursday, November 20,thereportshowedthatnonfarmpayrollsroseby119,000jobsinSeptember, far above the consensus forecast of 50,000 gain. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, reflecting a modestexpansioninthelabourforce.
The September report had been delayed more than a month due to the government shutdown, making it the final major labour release the Fed will receive before its upcoming decision. The BLS later noted that the October employment figures will be merged with Novemberʼs report and released on December16,creatinganunusualdatagapforpolicymakers.
Despite the stronger headline number, the broader trend remains one of moderatehiring.Afteraccountingfordownwardrevisionsof33,000jobsforJuly and August, total employment gains over that period averaged 62,000 jobs per month,almostexactlyinlinewithwhattheFederalReserveestimatesisneeded to keep labour-market conditions stable amid an ageing workforce and tighter immigration policies. In other words, slower job creation is not a sign of economic deterioration but a reflection of long-running demographic constraints.
Figure4.UnemploymentRateandNonFarmPayrollEmploymentMonthly ChangeSource:BureauofLaborStatistics)
Thursdayʼs release also included the latest unemployment insurance figures, showing 220,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 and 1.974millioncontinuingclaims,levelsthatindicateneitherasharpslowdownnor a robust acceleration. Taken together, the data point to a labour market that is growingatamoderatepace,andisfarfromrecessionterritory.
For the Federal Reserve, the key takeaway will be that there is nothing in the September jobs report that justifies a rate cut in December. Inflation remains abovetheFedʼs2percenttarget,andofficialswaryofpersistentservice-sector pricingpressureswillviewmodestjobgrowthascompatiblewithholdingpolicy steady.
Still, political pressure may intensify as the December meeting approaches. While the job market appears fundamentally stable and continues to cool at a controlledpace,theabsenceoffreshfederaldataisnowamajorcomplication. WiththeBureauofLaborStatisticsconfirminglastFridaythatitcannotproduce the October CPI report, the Federal Reserve will enter its December 910 meeting without any new official readings on inflation. The November CPI and jobsreportshavealsobeenpushedpastthemeetingdate.)Thislackofupdated federal data leaves policymakers reliant on alternative indicators and partial surveys, reinforcing the case for caution. Unless the combined October–November employment figures, released after the meeting, show a clearbreakintrend,theFedislikelytoconcludethatholdingratessteady,rather than cutting, remains the most prudent course for an economy navigating structural constraints, elevated borrowing costs, and a gradual cooling in demand.
CoolingConsumerSentimentand WeakBuilderConfidenceSignala ChallengingRoadAheadfortheUS HousingMarket
ConsumersentimentintheUSdimmedfurtherinNovember,reflectingthestrain ofelevatedborrowingcostsandacooling,thoughnotcollapsing,labourmarket. AccordingtotheUniversityofMichiganʼsConsumerSentimentSurvey,released last Friday, November 21, households reported a sharp pullback in their current financial conditions, with assessments of personal finances and durable-goods buying conditions both dropping more than 10 percent. While expectations for the year ahead showed a modest improvement, the overall mood suggests consumers are feeling the weight of tighter credit conditions and diminished purchasingpower.
InaspeechlastFriday,NewYorkFederalReservePresidentJohnWilliamssaid that expectations are still “very well anchoredˮ, giving the central bank some flexibilitytomovepolicyclosertoneutral.Hiscommentssignalledopennesstoa possiblefourth-quarter-pointratecutthisyear,promptingtraderstolifttheodds of a December easing from 44.4 percent to 71 percent, according to the CME FedWatchToolSeeFigurebelow).
Still, Fed policymakers remain divided, some arguing for more support as the labour market cools, while others warn that easing too quickly could reignite inflation.
Figure5.CMEFedWatchTool-TargetRateProbabilities
Figure6. IndexofConsumerSentimentUniversityofMichigan)
This backdrop of cautious consumers and policy uncertainty is directly feeding into the housing market, where sentiment among homebuilders remains subdued.ThelatestNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WellsFargoHousing MarketIndex,releasedthismonth,roseslightlyto38,its19thstraightmonthin pessimisticterritory.Builderscontinuetopointto“relativelyhighmortgagerates, aweaklabourmarket,andelevatedhomepricesˮasbarrierstostrongersales.
Currentsalesconditionsedgedupto41,buttheoutlookforfuturesalesslipped to51,andprospectivebuyertrafficremainedlowat26.Buildersareincreasingly relyingonincentivestoclosedeals:41percentreportedpricecuts,thehighest sinceMay2020,withaveragereductionsholdingat6percent,while65percent usedotherincentivessuchasfinancingconcessionsorupgrades.
The affordability crisis remains a growing political flashpoint. President Donald Trump recently floated the idea of introducing 50-year mortgages to lower monthly payments, though critics, including many housing experts, argue such loanscouldleavehomeownerspayingfarmoreininterestandslowtheirability tobuildequity.TheNationalAssociationofRealtorsreportedthismonththatthe medianageoffirst-timebuyershasclimbedto40years,comparedwiththelate twentiesinthe1980s,asignofhowfaraffordabilityhasdeteriorated.
Together,theconsumersentimentandhomebuildersentimentdatapointtoaUS economy adjusting to higher borrowing costs, moderated job growth, and a more cautious demand environment. Until mortgage rates ease and household confidence steadies, the path toward a housing-market recovery appears likely tostretchwellintomid-2026.
WhiteHouseAdvancesReviewofIRS PlantoTaxAmericansʼForeignCrypto HoldingsUnderGlobalReporting Framework
The White House has formally begun reviewing a Treasury and IRS regulatory proposal that would extend US tax reporting requirements to Americansʼ foreign digital-asset accounts, according to an official filing on the Office of Information andRegulatoryAffairsOIRA)website.
The rule, listed under RIN 1545BQ82, “Regulations Under Sections 6038D and 6048 Regarding Information Reporting for Foreign Digital Asset Accountsˮ, appears in the federal governmentʼs regulatory agenda and confirms that the TreasuryisadvancingmeasuresalignedwiththeOECDʼsCrypto-AssetReporting FrameworkCARF.
CARF establishes a global architecture for automatic, cross-border information exchange on digital-asset holdings, mirroring the structure of the Common ReportingStandardCRS)buttailoredtocrypto.Theframeworkhasalreadybeen adopted by major jurisdictions including the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan, as well as crypto hubs such as Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, signalingacceleratinginternationalconvergenceondigital-assettransparency.
AccordingtotheTreasury,joiningtheframeworkwouldhelpdeterUStaxpayers from moving assets offshore to avoid detection while simultaneously giving US-based exchanges a competitive advantage against foreign platforms that wouldberequiredtoreportAmericanusersʼactivity.
TheWhiteHouse,however,stressedthattherulemustavoidcreatingadditional reporting burdens for decentralised-finance DeFi transactions, signalling an attempttobalancetaxenforcementwithinnovation-sensitiveareasofthecrypto ecosystem.
If enacted, the proposal would mark one of the broadest expansions of IRS visibility into Americansʼ digital-asset activity, effectively integrating US tax enforcement into a coordinated international network designed to close gaps in offshorecryptocompliance.
ElSalvadorMakes HistoricSingle-Day BitcoinBuy:$100 Millionfor1,090BTC
El Salvadorʼs Bitcoin Office revealed that it purchased 1,090 BTC, worth about $100 million, in a single day, the largest one-day acquisition in the countryʼs history.Thisaddedtoitstotalholdingsof7,478BTC,nowvaluedatapproximately US$676million.
The timing of the buy was strategic: it occurred as Bitcoinʼs price dipped below US $90,000, a level the country had previously targeted for accumulation. El Salvador has maintained a policy of purchasing 1 BTC every single day since November2022,andthislargepurchaseunderscoresitscommitmentto“buying thedip.ˮ
However, the deal raises some controversy. Under El Salvadorʼs $1.4 billion IMF loan agreement, the country had reportedly agreed to stop its public-sector Bitcoin buys, making this move potentially contradictory to that deal. Critics suggest that the disclosed increase in reserves might reflect internal transfers acrossgovernmentwalletsratherthanafreshmarketpurchase.
Despite the tension with the IMF, President Nayib Bukele, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, appears undeterred. He publicly celebrated the transaction and reiteratedthataccumulationwillcontinue.Thislatestacquisitionfurthercements El Salvadorʼs long-term sovereign Bitcoin strategy amid price volatility and externalfinancialpressure.
