2021 State of Education by Detroit Regional Chamber

2021 EDITION

Increased Urgency in Educational Attainment Amid Crises Since the Detroit Regional Chamber released its inaugural State of Education in December 2019 much has changed. While year to year education data seldom fluctuates dramatically, the context in which to view and comprehend the research in this report could not be starker and the urgency to improve outcomes any greater. First, the COVID-19 public health crisis laid bare an equity gap with life and death consequences unfolding in real-time. Second, the economic crisis caused by the pandemic has created a recession disproportionately impacting those without post-secondary educational attainment. Third, the same inequities exposed amid the pandemic are fueling a nationwide social justice movement and racial reckoning. At the intersection of all three crises is post-secondary education attainment and its role in equity, quality of life, and social mobility. The 2021 State of Education comes as the nation grapples with its short and long-term recovery strategies from the pandemic.The data is essential to informing business, education, government, and philanthropy as decisions are made about how to best accelerate the economy while creating a more equitable society. While the long-term impact of COVID-19 on education will not be known for some time, it will surely require an increased regional education push to slow enrollment decline and hastening of initiatives to strengthen our workforce and prosperity. Dedication to the goal of 60% postsecondary education attainment and reducing the racial equity gap by half by 2030 has never been more necessary. Understanding where we are as a region and state – never more important.

Key Takeaways Postsecondary Readiness and Enrollment Trending Downward •

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Despite the fact high school graduation rate matches the national average, the share of the Detroit Region’s high school students who are considered college ready has decreased to nearly a third over the past five years. The region’s share of high school graduates who do not enroll in any postsecondary education has increased to 32%, with the city of Detroit increasing to nearly 50%.

Graduation Rates Improving, but Still Lag Behind Peer Regions •

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At 41.3%, the Detroit Region’s share of the population with an associate degree or higher has continued to rise over the past five years but still lags among peer regions and the national average of 41.7%.

Equity, Graduation Gaps Glaring in Michigan •

The Black adult population in the region reflects the lowest educational attainment rates at 26%, but has the largest share of the “some college, no degree” population.

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Michigan’s Black-white graduation gap exceeds the national average as Black college students graduate at a rate that is 21.9 percentage points lower than their white peers who entered freshman orientation.

COVID-19 Risk is Exacerbated for Low-Income Students, Those of Color •

FAFSA completions were down for this academic year in Michigan, a key factor in college accessibility for low-income students.

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Nationally, the rate of high school graduates who enrolled in college fell nearly eight times below the pre-pandemic loss rate, with even greater declines disproportionately impacting lowincome students.

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Recent emerging national trends provide a dire warning that students in our region – particularly low-income students and students of color – face increased risk.

Graduation rates at four-year and two-year institutions have risen incrementally over the past four cohorts in the region.

Adult Reengagment Offers a Prime Attainment Opportunity •

There is no path to 60% educational attainment without shifting the number of adults with some college credits to degree completion. Unfortunately, adult degree completion has decreased by 20% over the past five academic years.

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For 79% of the “some college, no degree” citizens in Michigan, the institution of last enrollment, re-enrollment and awarding of credential were also all located in Michigan. The opportunity to successfully reengage adult learners is prime.

2 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Wages and Likelihood of Employment Connected to Education Levels •

Among people age 25 or older, higher levels of education are associated with greater likelihood of employment and have greater access to better paying jobs.

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Those with an education of high school or less are experiencing the highest levels of job loss as a result of COVID-19 at four times greater than those with a bachelor’s degree.

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Black workers account for fewer of the highest paying job category while making up more than the lowest paying compared to whites.

The Most Robust Talent Portfolio in the Region The Detroit Regional Chamber has the most comprehensive education and talent portfolio in the region. Its Education and Talent Strategy focuses on increasing access, ensuring success, and growing talent with unrivaled programming efforts from administering the Detroit Promise Scholarship to Let’s Detroit to Discover Auto. The organization has led the way in establishing the goal of increasing the region’s postsecondary education attainment to 60% by 2030, a benchmark since adopted by Governor Gretchen Whitmer for the entire state. Under the strategic direction of a newly formed CEO Talent Council, led by Kelly’s Peter Quigley and 22 CEOs from a range of industries, the Chamber is empowering employers to engage in shaping the Detroit Region’s talent pipeline to meet 21st century needs and set the foundation for increased prosperity. This infographic shows the breadth and impact of the Chamber programs and initiatives in education and talent.

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The Detroit Region’s Talent Pipeline Has Too Many Leaks The analysis follows a group of students for six years after their initial enrollment in college. In the example below, the cohort of ninth graders include those who would go on to graduate high school, enroll in college within 12 months and earn a degree within six years.

High School Students Represented This data reports on students in the Detroit Region. Data for the city of Detroit has been broken out for additional analysis.

Regional Detroit Students

City of Detroit Students

The regional Detroit students represented in this report reside in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes the following six counties – Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne.

The city of Detroit students represented in this report include all students who reside in the city. They attend public schools, charter schools and schools in districts outside of the city. Students also attended schools governed by the Education Achievement Authority of Michigan, the statewide school system which took over failing schools in the city of Detroit in 2012.

4 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

POSTSECONDARY ACCESS

High School Graduation Rates Match National Average High school graduation rates for the region have increased slightly over the past five years. The national four-year high school graduation rate of 85%, from the latest year available, matches that of the region for the same year.

Postsecondary Readiness Has Decreased Over Past 5 Years Over the past five years, the share of the Detroit Region’s high school students who are considered college ready has decreased to nearly a third. The number of Detroit high school students considered college ready has remained near 10%. Note: The SAT recently replaced the ACT as the required standardized test for public schools; the first students affected were in the graduating class of 2017. The national average would likely be lower if every state made the test mandatory.

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FAFSA Completions Down in 2020-21 Academic Year FAFSA completions are down 16% in 2020-21 academic year in Michigan as of Dec. 25, 2020. While 51% of the Detroit Region’s students completed their Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) in 2020, 23,297 students in the Detroit Region did not complete their FAFSA in the 2019-2020 school year, leaving $224 million in federal aid unclaimed.

Regional Response: Race to the FAFSA Line In 2018, Detroit Drives Degrees (D3) launched Race to the FAFSA Line, a regional competition between high schools in Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties. Participating schools can win cash prizes and other incentives for a strong FAFSA showing. This year, over 100 schools are participating in the campaign. D3 also admits a small group of schools into its “Sprint to the Finish” cohort. These schools, who traditionally have lower FAFSA completion rates than peer districts, receive targeted support and access to a FAFSA coach, a college advising expert who works with counselors to identify students who have not yet filed their FAFSA and meet with those students one-on-one to help them complete the form.

Postsecondary Enrollment Trending Downward, Particularly in Detroit Enrolled within 12 months of high school graduation The share of the Detroit Region’s high school graduates enrolling in four-year institutions have remained consistent over the past five years at 45%. Decreases in enrollment at two-year institutions have continued, down 2 percentage points in the Detroit Region’s 2018 high school graduating class. The region’s share of high school graduates not enrolling in any postsecondary education has increased from 27% to 32% since 2014. More starkly, nearly 50% of the city of Detroit high school graduates have not enrolled in postsecondary education with 12 months, an increase from 40% to 49% over the past five years.

COVID Impact: Enrollment Falls Across Nation, Community Colleges Hit Hardest Enrollment rates for the 2020 Fall semester have fallen nationally due to the impact of COVID-19. The number of class of 2020 high school graduates who enrolled in college fell by 21.7%, nearly eight times the pre-pandemic loss rate when compared to the class of 2019. Public college enrollment of low-income class of 2020 high school graduates declined at a much higher rate, falling by 29.2%. Most impacted are community colleges, which experienced a decrease of direct college enrollment at 30.3%. The available data at publication of this report does not yet illustrate the impact of COVID-19, but the more recent emerging national trends provide a dire warning that students in our region – particularly low-income students and students of color – face increased significant risk.

6 | POSTSECONDARY ACCESS

Postsecondary Progression Increasing at Four-Year Institutions, Declining at Two-Year First year completion of coursework (24 credits within initial 12 months of enrollment) A key indicator of students successfully achieving graduation or a postsecondary credential is completing coursework on track. Among regional high school graduates enrolled in postsecondary institutions, 24% of two-year students and 78% of four-year students have completed their first year of coursework. Since 2014, the share of two-year students achieving 24 credits in the first year of enrollment has decreased from 29% to 24%, while the share of students at four-year institutions has increased from 75% to 78%.

Regional Response: Detroit Promise Path To bolster success among college students, the Detroit Promise offers a tuition-free path to two-year and fouryear credentials at 26 Michigan colleges for students in the city of Detroit. It has expanded to include the Detroit Promise Path, which provides additional financial incentives and wrap-around coaching supports to community college students as they work toward the credential.

These are often first-generation college students who show up on campus knowing little to nothing about what college is supposed to be about. … Detroit Promise Path is our commitment to support each student during that transition from high school to college, all the way to graduation. – Wytrice Harris, Manager for Detroit Promise Path, Detroit Regional Chamber

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Postsecondary Graduation Rates Rising Incrementally Six years from initial enrollment for 2013 High School Graduates

Graduation rates at four-year and two-year institutions have risen incrementally over the past four cohorts of the Detroit Region’s high school graduates. Nearly 70% of the region’s students pursuing four-year degrees have earned a degree within 6 years. The rates for those pursuing two-year degrees are less than half those of four-year students at 31%. The city of Detroit high school graduates pursuing higher education at four-year institutions have seen improved rates of graduation from 33% to 36% from 2010 to 2013 cohorts.

Credential Completion Rate Troubling for Region and City Six years from initial enrollment for 2013 High School Graduates Of students who pursue postsecondary education, the following have not earned a degree or certificate within six years of graduating: 47% in the Detroit Region, 76% in the City of Detroit.

8 | POSTSECONDARY SUCCESS

Michigan’s Racial Equity Gaps Some of Highest in the Nation Graduation rates offer an indication into what appears to be systemic struggles by Michigan higher education institutions to address a staggeringly wide gap in campus racial equity. Racial gaps in students earning bachelor’s degrees within six years vary widely among the public universities according to Bridge. Overall, Michigan’s public colleges have the third highest Black-white graduation gap in the nation at 21.9 percentage points, according to Bridge Michigan. The states with wider gaps, Kansas (26 percentage points) and South Dakota (24 points), have a far lower percentage of Black residents than Michigan. In Georgia, the gap is 2.9 points; Florida, 2.5 points. In North Carolina, Black students graduate at a rate 2 percentage points higher than their white peers. All three of those states have similar or larger percentages of Black residents as Michigan.

Detroit Region’s Black-White Gap Higher than National Average Black college students at regional public universities graduate on average at a rate that is 20 percentage points lower than their white peers who entered freshman orientation with them. The Detroit Region’s Black-white graduation gap is 8 percentage points higher than the national average of 12 percentage points.

Regional Response: Talent Compact Aims to Cut Racial Equity Gap in Half The Detroit Regional Talent Compact, which was recently enacted by the Detroit Regional Chamber’s Detroit Drives Degrees (D3) program, provided a blueprint for how to reduce the racial equity gap in half by 2030. With a focus on collective impact led by the D3 Leadership Council, stakeholders in business, education, philanthropy, and government agreed to specific targets for the number of new credentials earned by Black and Latinx students in the region and committed to supporting students to achieve these goals. Further, each of the 17 strategies outlined in the strategic plan associated with the Compact is designed to foster greater racial equity in postsecondary outcomes.

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Adult Attainment is Essential to Reaching 60% by 2030 Goal There are 676,545 adults in the Detroit Region with some college credits but no degree or credential in 2019. There is no path to 60% educational attainment for the region without increasing the number of adults with some college credits to a degree completion.

Postsecondary Adult Enrollment Down for Region and State Enrollment in higher education for Michigan’s adult population of 25 to 49-year-olds with no bachelor’s degree or higher has decreased to 4.5%, since peaking in 2011 at 7.4%. In 2017, 42,466 adults (ages 25-64) were enrolled in undergraduate programs in public institutions located in the Detroit Region, including four-year and twoyear programs. Adult enrollment in undergraduate programs was down 15%, or 7,543 fewer students, compared to 2015. Source: IPEDS

Regional Response: Reconnecting Adults to Education

Detroit Reconnect is a Chamber initiative to help more adults returning to higher education or attending for the first time to gain new skills, advance in the workplace, and fulfill lifelong dreams of completing a degree or credential. “We help individuals with career exploration, selecting the right program, and offer support to those seeking financial aid,” Michelle Cyrus, Director of Adult College Completion, Detroit Regional Chamber.

COVID Response: Futures For Frontliners & Michigan Reconnect

Announced in late April, Futures for Frontliners was created in response to the pandemic. This state scholarship program provides non-degreed frontline workers with tuition-free access to local community colleges to pursue a certificate or degree. With an anticipated 2021 launch date, Michigan Reconnect aims to provide a tuition-free access to Michiganders who are 25 years or older to an in-demand industry certificate or associate degree.

10 | ADULT ATTAINMENT

Adult Graduation Has Decreased Over Past 5 Years Annual adult degree completions of associate and bachelor’s degrees from the Detroit Region’s institutions have decreased 20% over the past five academic years. Community colleges have seen adult graduation totals decrease 31%, moving from 7,273 adult graduates in 2015 to 5,051 adult graduates in 2019. Four-year institutions in the region have also seen declines at 7% with 5,874 adult graduates in 2015 to 5,443 in 2019.

Adult Educational Attainment Varies Significantly by Race The Detroit Region’s educational attainment within races and ethnicities varies for the adult population. The Asian population in the region reflects the highest rates of associate degree or higher attainment, along with the smallest “some college, no degree” population. The Black adult population in the region reflects the lowest educational attainment rates at 26%, and the racial group with the largest share of “some college, no degree” population.

“Some college, no degree” completer population for Michigan The opportunity for Michigan institutions to successfully reengage adult learners is prime. Ten percent of Michigan’s “some college, no degree” population have accrued at least two years’ worth of academic progress toward completion within the past 10 years. For 79% of the “some college, no degree” completers in Michigan, the institution of last enrollment, reenrollment and awarding of credential were all located also in Michigan making a potential return to school less challenging. Source: National Student Clearinghouse

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Occupation Wages Tied Directly to Education Level The numbers continue to show that earning a post-secondary credential is becoming increasingly critical to earning family-sustainable wages, which is just over $60,000 annually for a family of four. In the Detroit Region, 86% of occupations that require a post-secondary credential earn a family-sustaining wage. Conversely, nearly 83% of occupations earning less than $39,810 require only a high school diploma or have no educational requirement.

Higher Education Levels Associated with Greater Likelihood of Employment Among people age 25 and older, higher levels of education are associated with a greater likelihood of employment. Individuals with higher levels of education generally have better access to higher paying jobs such as those in management, professional, and related occupations—than do individuals with less education. In 2019, the Detroit Region’s working population with a bachelor’s degree or higher had the highest median earnings of $69,978 and the lowest unemployment rate of 2.4%. Those with a high school diploma had a median earning of $31,223 and unemployment rate of 6.1% – 3.7 percentage points (or 2.5x) higher than those with at least a bachelor’s degree. In 2019, white workers in the Detroit Region were more likely to be employed in management, business, science, and arts occupations—the highest paying major job category with median earnings of $63,321. Of the total employed in the occupation group, white workers represented 36% compared with 23% of Black workers. The lowest paying major occupation group was service occupation with median earnings of $19,551. Black workers accounted for 30% of total employed compared to 19% of white workers.

COVID Impact: Highest Job Loss for Those with High School Diploma or Less National trends show those with high school or less are experiencing the highest levels of job loss as a result of COVID-19. In Michigan, the working population with less that a high school diploma saw unemployment rates rise from 9% in March 2020 to 16% in October, while those with a bachelor’s degree or higher rose from 2% to 4% over the same time period. Workers with less than a high school diploma suffered an unemployment rate nearly four times those with a bachelor’s degree.

12 | TALENT PREPARATION

Education Attainment Rising Over the Past 5 Years The share of the population with an associate degree or higher in the Detroit Region has continued to rise over the past five years. Lagging among peer regions, and the national average, the region’s educational attainment of 41.3% includes 8.9% with an associate degree, 19.2% with a bachelor’s degree and 13.2% with a graduate or professional degree.

Conclusion: The Region Must Accelerate Education Initiatives The numbers in this report provide a sober assessment of education attainment in the Detroit Region -- and with many key enrollment and attainment indicators trending in the wrong direction, we risk falling further behind the rest of the nation at the worst possible time. Given the multiple crises this state and country face, improving education attainment rates have never been more important, and perhaps the challenges of our day present a unique opportunity. Closing education gaps would strengthen Michigan’s talent pipeline and help accelerate the economy as part of COVID-19 recovery efforts. It would also be a substantive step to address the systemic inequities at the heart of the social justice movement and lead to a more equitable and inclusive society. The Detroit Regional Talent Compact offers a blueprint to cut the racial equity gap in half and increase education attainment to 60% by 2030. With unprecedented collaboration between business, government, and philanthropic leaders it offers specific action plans to achieve both goals. What is needed now is more employers to join the effort. Our regional prosperity and growth depend on it. Visit DetroitChamber.com/Compact for more information. Data Disclaimer: This analysis utilizes data obtained through a confidential data application process submitted to the Michigan Education Data Center (MEDC)/Michigan Education Research Institute (MERI). Youth Policy Lab at the University of Michigan requested data access and completed the analysis included in this report. The data are structured and maintained by the MERI-Michigan Education Data Center (MEDC). MEDC data is modified for analysis purposes using rules governed by MEDC and are not identical to those data collected and maintained by the Michigan Department of Education (MDE) and/or Michigan’s Center for Educational Performance and Information (CEPI). Results, information and opinions solely represent the analysis, information and opinions of the author(s) and are not endorsed by, or reflect the views or positions of, grantors, MDE and CEPI or any employee thereof.

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