ECONOMIC INDICATOR UPDATE
RELEASE DATE: APRIL 2025
The Economic Indicator Update complements the Detroit Regional Chamber’s annual State of the Region report by providing timely updates on key economic metrics throughout the year.
Together, these reports offer insights on business growth, employment, innovation, and consumer trends, helping leaders make strategic decisions in a changing economic environment. For more economic indicators and Chamber perspectives visit, detroitchamber.com/research.
MI
Michigan’s Real GDP growth exceeded 2 percent each quarter since 2024Q2. GDP, US
(2019:Q3-2019:Q4)
(2019:Q3-2019:Q4)
(Feb. 2020)
(2024:Q3-2024:Q4)
(2024:Q3-2024:Q4)
(Feb. 2025)
Avg. Weekly Wage, Detroit MSA $1,245 (2019 Q4) $1,366 (2024 Q3)
(Feb. 2020)
US
Job Postings, Detroit MSA
(Feb. 2020)
(Feb. 2020)
(Feb. 2025)
(Mar. 2025)
(Mar. 2025)
Consumer Price Index, Detroit MSA 2.6 over-the-year percent change (Feb. 2020) 3.3 over-the-year percent change (Feb. 2025)
(Feb. 2020)
(Feb. 2020)
Automotive Sales, US, SAAR
(Apr. 2025)
(Mar. 2025)
Solid Real GDP growth exceeded levels seen five years ago in the same quarter.
Employment growth exceeds 16,000 jobs year-over-year. Surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels.
2% increase over same quarter a year ago, yet down 9% from 2024 Q1 high of $1,504. (private, all establishments, all industries)
Region’s unemployment rate diverging from U.S., at 1 percentage point higher than nation in Feb. 2025.
U.S. unemployment rate at or under 4 percent since 2021. Up 0.3 p.p. over one year ago.
Cooling labor market with half as many job postings in the Region in March 2025 than seen at peak in March 2022.
Levels steady near 3 percent through 2024 yet has not reached the Fed Reserve’s 2 percent target.
Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month. 30% drop from December 2024 reading.
Manufacturing purchasing manager activity contracted in March, after expansion in first two months of 2025.
U.S. vehicle sales (SAAR) reached highest level in four years.
(Feb. 2020)
(Mar. 2025)
U.S. and Michigan Economy Show Solid Growth Through 2024 Real GDP
Solid economic growth in Michigan exceeded 2 percent through the last three quarters of 2024. The state exceeded the national growth in Q2, and nearly matched levels seen in Q3 and Q4.
At $566B in real GDP in 2024, Michigan ranks as the 14th largest state in economic activity.
Manufacturing, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sectors contributed the most to Michigan’s economy in 2024, representing 44% of the state’s GDP.
2.4% United States
2.1% Michigan Real GDP 2024 Q4
Detroit Region’s Employment Reached
2019 Levels and Matched National Growth
Total employment in the Detroit Region exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels. On an annual basis, the employment growth since 2020 has matched the national growth of 11%.
Employment growth in February 2025 exceeded 16,000 jobs year over year.
11% United States
11% Detroit MSA
Detroit MSA, Non-Farm
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted
Michigan Was on Pace With the Nation, but Recent Data Causes Concern
The Detroit Region’s unemployment rate peaked at 23% in 2020, nearly 8 percentage points over the U.S. level. Over the past several years, the rate tracked nearly with the nation. However, the end of 2024 saw the Region diverge from the U.S.
As of February 2025, the Region’s unemployment rate rose to 1 percentage point higher than the nation.
4.1% United States Unemployment Rate Feb. 2025
5.2%
Regional Wages Peaked in 2024, Lag National Growth
The Detroit Region’s average weekly wage at private companies declined in Q3 of 2024, after reaching a peak of over $1,500 in Q1.
Weekly wages rose 2% in the Region in Q3 from the same quarter in the previous year, while the nation rose 4% over the same period.
Avg. Weekly Wage 2024 Q3
$1,386 United States
$1,366 Detroit MSA
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Postings Down Steeply in the Detroit Region
After peaking at nearly 200,000 job postings in 2022, the Detroit Region has dropped to under 100,000 unique postings.
Compared to a year ago, the Detroit Region has seen steeper declines in job postings than the nation, down 16% compared to the nation’s 3% decrease.
The ratio of job postings per unemployed person has declined in the Region, falling from 2-to-1 in 2022 to 1-to-1 in 2024.
Job Postings March (Year-over-year)
Source: Lightcast -16.3% Detroit MSA -2.6% United States
Inflation Cooling, But Not
to Fed’s 2%
Target Consumer Price Index
Regional inflation peaked in 2022 at 9.7% and has decreased to near 3% over the past year.
Overall prices and core prices (less food and energy) inflation have tracked together over the past year, as volatile food and energy prices have come in line with consumer goods and services inflation.
Consumer Price Index Feb. 2025 (12-month Percent Change)
2.8%
3.3%
Consumer Sentiment Down Steeply
Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, dropping 11% from February and 30% from December 2024.
Consumers are indicating concern with the ongoing economic policy developments. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009.
Year-ahead inflation expectations rose, reaching the highest level since 1981.
U.S. CEO Outlook Has Fallen Sharply, Lowest Level Since 2012
After optimism in the months following the November 2024 general election, a steep drop in CEO confidence was reported in March 2025, declining to levels last recorded in 2012.
Nearly half of the Chief Executive Officers surveyed anticipate a recession or slowdown in the next six months. Tariffs were cited as the reason for declining optimism.
Additionally, government layoffs, rising geopolitical uncertainty, and overall unpredictability contributed to rising pessimism.
Anticipate Revenue Growth in 2025
84% 56%
January 2025
March 2025
U.S. CEO Confidence
Source: Chief Executive
Tariff Concerns Driving Purchasing Managers
Decision Making
After two months of expansion in 2025, economic activity in the manufacturing industry contracted in March.
The survey of the nation’s supply chain executives indicated:
- Demand weakened with declines in new orders and export orders.
- Output weakened as production and employment index moved into contraction.
- Inputs expanded as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports increased in anticipation of tariff implementation.
New light-vehicle sales recorded the highest monthly SAAR in nearly four years as customers purchased vehicles in advance of potential tariff impacts.
Analysts expect momentum to continue through May or until pre-tariff inventory is drawn down. New vehicle prices are expected to increase in the second half of the year.
Average new vehicle prices have increased 27% over the past five years.
Avg. Transaction Price of New Vehicle