Fata Morgana: Human emergence in Antarctica / 2019 / AAschool Landscape Urbanism by Daniel Kiss

Swadheet Chaturvedi Daniel Kiss

FATA(L) MORGANA HUMAN EMERGENCE IN ANTARCTICA

ARCHITECTURAL ASSOCIATION SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE LANDSCAPE URBANISM MArch Term two 2018-2019

FATA MORGANA HUMAN EMERGENCE IN ANTARCTICA

Swadheet Chaturvedi Daniel Kiss

DIRECTORS Alfredo Ramirez Eduardo Rico

STUDIO MASTER Clara Oloriz Sanjuan

SEMINAL TUTOR Clara Oloriz Sanjuan

TECHNICAL TUTOR Gustavo Romanillos Claudio Campanille

ARCHITECTURAL ASSOCIATION SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE LANDSCAPE URBANISM MArch Term two 2018-2019

The metaphor: Fata(l) Morgana “The optical phenomenon occurs because rays of light are bent when they pass through air layers of different temperatures in a steep thermal inversion where an atmospheric duct has formed.” (Andrew T Young, 1990) A Fata Morgana can be seen on land or at sea, in polar regions, or in deserts. Also known as a Mirage, which is often observed in the Antarctic landscape actually has a deeper significance attached to it as it creates an illusion of the Ice caps dissolving into the ocean, thus giving a visual presentation to the observer as to how this phenomenon portrays an underlying truth. Therefore calling it “fata(l) morgana”.

PROLOGUE

Intent The intent of this study is to portray indirect territorialisation of antarctica by global forces and the spatial distribution of these forces in the land itself. Antarctica’s future has global consequences, and thus it is important to understand how these forces manifest themselves in terms of managing various aspects of Antarctica and the human related activities conducted in and around the continent.

Our position There is a clear lack of understanding and sync between natural processes and the management of human activities within a particular setting, specially in the case of Antarctica. While there is a complex legislative framework involved in managing Antarctica, yet these frameworks are often clouded by lobbies and its multi-directional hierarchies. As a consequence, the ground reality of management and protection of such sensitive settings end up being imaginary boundaries constructed by a few people, neglecting the natural boundaries and its relation to the overall landscape.

Polar Lab It is the 200th anniversary of the discovery of Antarctica, which is being celebrated as a part of “Antarctica-200” co-directed by Francesco Bandarin and Giulia Foscari. Polar Lab is it’s research wing trying to map the human footprint in terms of the built and infrastructural development throughout the 200 year long history of human presence in the continent. Thus it was a great opportunity for our study to be collaborated with the Polar Lab in order to include broader and more complex issues attached to the discussion of Antarctica.

01 INTRODUCTION 08 10

01.1. SCIENCE VS. PUBLIC 01.2. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT ANTARCTICA?

02 HUMAN PRESENCE: 14 22 26 32

02.1. HISTORY OF HUMAN PRESENCE 02.2. GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ANTARCTICA 02.3 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 02.4. PROTECTION FAILURE

03 ANALOGIES: CHOOSING A FUTURE 38 42 47

03.1. HUMAN MANAGEMENT: DECEPTION ISLAND 03.2. NATURAL SYSTEMS: THWAITES GLACIER 03.3. CONCLUSION: GLOBAL SCALE

REFERENCES

INTRODUCTION

01. INTRODUCTION

01.1. Science vs public

01.2. What do we know about Antarctica?

INTRODUCTION

01.1 SCIENCE VS. PUBLIC

FIG. 01 / COUNTLESS UNMELTING GLACIERS IN ANTARCTICA photography by Trey Ratclfif

Why Antarctica? Most of global organisations deem antarctica as a geopolitical success in the way it has been established as a hub for science for the whole world and banning any military presence whatsoever. Exploration and curiosity are instinctive to human nature, and thus can be used to justify the massive funding involved in the science seeking of Antarctica. However it raises some other important questions, such as what are the implication of human presence nonetheless? Who owns the knowledge? What is the publicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stake in this knowledge acquired? Who is benefitting from this knowledge and who is not?

Capturing to prove And thus, finally the human crossed its path with the penguins as famously captured by Herbert Ponting in this famous picture of his.

FIG. 02 / FOOTRPINTS photography by Herbert George Ponting, (1911), Scott Expidition

In general we still have a fragmented knowledge about Antarctica. For instance as we can see in the Google Earth imagery, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a patchwork of different satellite records which can be distinct from each other, because of the constantly changing coastline of different seasons. As a matter of fact, this territory is the most surveilled in the world, but still pixelated for the public.

FIG. 04 / GOOGLE SATELLITE IMAGE

FIG. 03 / RADARSAT-1 Canadian Space Agency, 1995

INTRODUCTION

01.2 WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT ANTARCTICA?

FIG. 05 / THE TABULAR ICEBERG, LARSEN C ICE SHELF NASA, 2018

Antarctica’s Global Relevance Antarctica is in reality a barometer for the health of our planet, in the sense that how climate change is impacting its natural balance. “Scientists can read Antarctic ice cores like a record going back for hundreds of thousands of years, comparing levels of carbon dioxide in atmosphere from the past 800,000 years with today’s measurements. This sends us the important warning that carbon dioxide levels are higher now than they’ve ever been.” (Greenpeace UK, 2019) Thus one can suggest that the Ice is ‘living’. It not only has important carbon information, but also hosts a variety of biological activities, is constantly moving and in fact has its own sound!

Blind Spots of Knowledge

FIG. 06 / AREIAL IMAGE OF BELLINGHAUSEN SEA

However, amongst all this abundance of scientific knowledge available to us, the handling of its information and data can be questioned. Also, the logistical complications of conducting studies in such a harsh environment where the accessibility is blocked for almost half a year makes it a challenging task to comprehend the immense complexities of such a setting.

Important facts about Antarctica The image (fig. 07.) demonstrates how Antarctica would look like if all its ice were to melt, leaving an extensive complex of archipelagos. It could contribute to more than 60 metres (200 feet) of global sea level rise. (Nsidc.org, 2019) Antarctica is almost 1.5 times bigger than Australia with an area of 14 million km².

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FIG. 07 / ANTARCTICA BEDMAP TOPOGRAPHY by Daniel Kiss

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02. HUMAN PRESENCE

02.1. History of human presence

02.2. Geomorphologies of Antarctica

02.3. Environmental management

02.4. Protection failure

HUMAN PRESENCE

02.1

FIG. 08 / SHACKLETON’S ENDURANCE photography by: James Francis Hurley, (1915), Gelatine dry plate, Henley Collection, National Maritime Museum from Greenwich, UK

HISTORY OF HUMAN PRESENCE

Exploration of Heroic Era Antarctica was not always a know a fact, however the greek philosopher Ptolemy did state: “An enormous far-southern landmass must exist in order to provide a planetary counterweight to the large continents of the north”. In January of 1820, The Royal Navy sent Edward Bransfield to explore the southeastern waters of the freshly claimed South Shetlands. Thus it is claimed that he was the first to see the Antarctic Peninsula. (South-pole.com, 2019)

FIG. 09 / POLHEIM CAMP: “HOME AT THE POLE” Robert Falcon Scott (at left) and companions at Polheim, South Pole, 18 January 1911

Being the only land on Earth with null human presence until the 19th century makes it extraordinarily unique. Scale-lessness and Human-lessness can distort one’s sense

of being in such a landscape. The amount of white and only white can be overwhelming as an experience. “The Heroic Era is considered to start in 1895, when a resolution passed at the Sixth International Geographical Congress advocated the exploration of Antarctica, and led to expeditions by scientists and explorers from Australia, Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, Scotland, Norway and Japan.” Science has been touted as the primary reason for exploration even before commercial whaling and fishing emerged in Antarctica. (Ukaht.org, 2019)

15 FIG. 10 / SIR ERNEST HENRY SHACKLETONâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S EXPEDITION Eric Marshall, M.RC.S., Routes and Surveys of he Southern Journey Party, 1908-09, 1:1500000, British Antarctic Expedition, Geographical Journal, 1909

HUMAN PRESENCE

TERRITORIAL CLAIMS Timeline of the Antarctic Treaty System the opening of post offices at each base. Stamps are a form of currency and if a nation were to issue stamps for one of its territories, it further strengthens that territorial claim. By 1950s, the territories of antarctica looked like this, with a dispute in the claims between UK, Argentina and Chile. USA and USSR were pretty late in the race, so they conveniently reserved the rights to claim in future.

FIG. 11 / GEOPOLITICAL MAP OF ANTARCTICA Antarctica Explorations and Claims, Central Intelligence Agency, 1956

After almost a century of explorers trying to find this mysterious land in the south, and after finally spotting it, a few countries started claiming its slice of the cake, starting with the united kingdom in the 1908, followed by New Zealand, France, Norway, Australia, Chile and Argentina. Consequently, countries started establishing bases and facilities in suitable locations. The more quirky aspect of the establishment of these bases, was

17 FIG. 12 / TIMELINE OF THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM by: Daniel Kiss in collaboration with Polar Lab

HUMAN PRESENCE

Cold war

International Geophysical Year 1957-58 Amongst all this, the scientific community took the responsibility for the first time to act as a common platform for scientific representative from these countries in order to allow important discussions, specifically related to Antarctica. And thus the International Geophysical Year was conducted in the year 1957-1958, which gave rise to the Antarctic Treaty System.

FIG. 14 / BARRIER REPORT Thornshayn, 1934, Byrd Antarctic Expedition II., Byrd Polar Resarch Center, Ohio State University

FIG. 13 / POSTAGE STAMP Ervine Metzl , 1958, Chicago, USA

This was also the time when the world was divided geopolitically with tensions between the USA and USSR, thereby putting the discussion about Antarctica under severe jeopardy. The territories were disputed, there was lack of organisation and communication between all the stakeholders.

FIG. 16 / ACCESSIBILITY IN OF THE CONTINENT Antarctica Relative Accessibility, Central Intelligence Agency, 1948

FIG. 15 / OPERATION DEEP FREEZE Antarctic Area Stations U.S. Navy Operation “Deep Freeze 62”, Naval Oceanographic Office, 1961

HUMAN PRESENCE

FIG. 17 / SIGNATURE OF THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SIgned by Ambassador Herman Phleger, 1 December 1959 in Washington, D.C., United States, Conference on Antarctica, 15 Oct. - 1 Dec. 1959

GOVERNANCE OF ANTARCTICA The Antarctic Treaty System The Antarctic Treaty was signed in Washington on 1. December 1959 by the twelve countries whose scientists had been active in and around Antarctica during the International Geophysical Year of 1957-58. It entered into force in 1961 and has since been acceded to by many other nations. Now there are 54 countries within the ATS, out of which 29 are consultative and the rest are Non-Consultative and thus donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t hold the power to vote in meetings.

ANTARCTIC TREATY PARTIES

FIG. 18 / WORLD MAP OF THE PARTIES by Swadheet Chaturvedi in collaboration with Polar lab

ANTARCTIC TR

official claims

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United Kingdom (1908)

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What does the Antarctic Treaty contain?

LEGEND

Peace, science, legacy of the IGY and UN Charter Recognizing that it is in the interest of all mankind that Antarctica shall continue for ever to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and shall not become the scene or object of international discord.

reserved rights to claim official claims United States UNITED KINGDOM (1908) NewNEW ZealandZEALAND (1923) (1923) USSR France (1924) FRANCE (1924) Norway (1929) NORWAY (1929) Australia (1933) AUSTRALIA (1933) Chile (1940) (1940) CHILE Argentina (1942) reserved rights to claim ARGENTINA (1942) United States UNITED STATES USSR USSR United Kingdom (1908)

14 Articles to the Treaty establishing rules and principles such as freedom of scientific investigation, demilitarization, scientific cooperation, territorial claims, geographical coverage, inspection, jurisdiction, meetings, disputes, ratification and entry into force and duration.

official claims United Kingdom (1908) New Zealand (1923) France (1924) Norway (1929) Australia (1933) Chile (1940)

What it does not address explicitly are issues such as resource usage, conservation, tourism, biological prospecting and climate change. Also it does not create a framework to act in the future.

Argentina (1942)

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FIG. 19 / ORGANIZATIONAL DIAGRAM by Jane Ling in collaboration with Polar lab

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Legislative framework

If we peel back the complexity of the present-day Antarctic Treaty system through its institutions and instruments, we find a complex network of institutions and nations with diverse interests and varying levels of power. At the center of this system of soft governance is the Antarctic Treaty, tying together 53 nations of both Consultative countries and Non-consultative countries, and advisory organizations. Under this system entities with representatives converge at annual meetings conducted at the ATCM, the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, and the CEP, the Committee for Environmental Protection, which was established through the Madrid Protocol.

These two dominant operative instruments form the core procedures of how political measures and decisions are discussed and made. If we scrutinize the structure of this governance, a clear imbalance of power emerges when we examine how nation-states are represented in these instrumental meetings. Consultative countries have powers to appoint representatives to key meetings, whereas Non-consultative countries only have the power to observe. They also possess no representative power in COMNAP, one of two main advisory organizations to both the ATCM and the CEP. The difference of representational power is a key motivation for nation states to elevate their status into a consultative one through the procedures of the Treaty.

Under the Antarctic Treaty there are also Conventions on specific environmental aspects â&#x20AC;&#x201C; like the CCAMLR, which outlines the conservation of Marine Living Resources, or ACAP which outlines conservation on Albatrosses. These conventions formulates their own sub-structure of committees and secretariats primarily from the scientific community or otherwise. Within the advisory organizations, COMNAP and SCAR, they are also composed of actors with diverse interests, who are consulted by the CEP. The growing industry of Antarctic tourism for example is represented by IAATO, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators. These entities bring forth other non-state perspectives into the political discussions of the ATS.

GEOGRAPHY ON ANTARCTICA

FIG. 20 / MONTHLY SEA ICE CONCENTRATION Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. N. Meier, M. Savoie, and A. K. Windnagel. 2018

02.2 GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ANTARCTICA

Sea ice The extent of Antarctica is a rather dynamic boundary, as it’s sea ice extent shifts according to the season monthly as shown in the catalogue of images. Thereby one can truly think of it as a pulsating geography which shifts its boundaries constantly.

Antarctic Convergence It is interesting to mention, that there are several natural boundaries which distinguishes the polar environment from the neighbours. The convergence line, shown on the map refers to a threshold, where cold, northward-flowing Antarctic waters meet the relatively warmer waters of the subantarctic. This natural boundary is responsible in keeping the ecosystem of Antarctica pristine through millennials. Meanwhile we take the 60 degree south as the polar circle which is important in geopolitical sense. ANTARCTICA -10°

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FIG. 21 / ANTARCTIC CONVERGENCE by Daniel Kiss

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FIG. 23 / ICE FLOW VELOCITY by Daniel Kiss

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It’s interesting to note here that if we depict the ice velocity of the whole continent, we can see the flow similar to that of a drainage system, but much more slower. It’s clear that the-130° highest altitude of the plateau is where it is most stable, but the ice shelves move the fastest towards the ocean around the floating ice -140° shelves. In the darkest regions, the ice velocity goes as high as upto 4 km/year.

GEOGRAPHY OF ANTARCTICA

FIG. 24 / ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Radarsat Imagery

GEOGRAPHIC FEATURES: REGIONS

Geography Mainland Antarctica is physically divided into two parts by transantarctic mountain range: East Antarctica and the West Antarctica. The third most significant geographical region is the Antarctic Peninsula which has the highest human presence in terms of population density. Major human settlements include the largest facility called the McMurdo station (USA) in the East and 2 civilian towns in the peninsula : Villa Las Estrellas (Chilean) & Esperanza (Argentinean).

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FIG. 25 / ATLAS OF ANTARCTICA by Swadheet Chaurvedi

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FIG. 26 / RADIOGLACIOLOGY RECORD

Research stations / Scientific objectives

As technology developed, so did the techniques of mapping an otherwise logistically tough setting of Antarctica. Radio Glaciology allows us to identify the subglacial layerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s properties and the minerals present in them. Whereas Satellite mapping has made the geographies of Antarctica better known than ever before.

The scientific objectives of establishing a research facility in Antarctica are wide-ranging, from studying terrestrial (glacial and aquatic) ecosystems to active volcanic activities. It is of significance for not only biologists but also to Earth scientists. There are gravitational anomalies within the continent which interests a lot of scientists. One can think of countless possibilities of exploring the scientific qualities of Antarctica that can be studied, and thus allows colonization of Antarctica by humans in the name of science.

FIG. 27 / MCMURDO DRY VALLEY

Remote sensing technique

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

02.3 FIG. 28 / ANTARCTIC TREATY PARTIES by Swadheet Chaturvedi in collaboration with Polar Lab

CONSULTATIVE NATIONS

d a

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Slovakia Turkey Venezuela Estonia Belarus Monaco Portugal Malaysia Pakistan Iceland Kazakhstan Mongolia

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CONSULTATIVE NATIONS Argentina Australia Chile France New Zealand Norway United Kingdom Belgium Japan Russia South Africa United States Poland

Germany China Brazil India Uruguay Ecuador Italy Sweden Finland Peru Spain South Korea Netherlands

Ukraine Bulgaria Czech Republic

Decision makers

NON-CONSULTATIVE CONSULTATIVE NON-CONSULTATIVE NON-CONSULTATIVE NATIONS NATIONS NATIONS CONSULTATIVE NATIONS CONSULTATIVE NATIONSNATIONS Slovakia Slovakia Denmark Denmark Argentina Argentina Germany Romania Romania Turkey Turkey Australia Australia China Argentina Turkey Denmark Papua New PapuaVenezuela New Venezuela Chile Chile Brazil Guinea Guinea Estonia Estonia Australia France France India Venezuela Romania Hungary Hungary Belarus Belarus New Zealand New Uruguay Zealand ChileNorway Estonia Monaco Papua Cuba New Guinea Cuba Monaco Norway Ecuador Portugal Austria Austria United Kingdom United Italy Kingdom France Belarus Portugal Hungary Greece Greece Malaysia Malaysia Belgium Belgium Sweden New Zealand Monaco Cupa North Korea NorthPakistan Korea Pakistan Finland Japan Japan Canada Canada Iceland Iceland Russia Russia Peru Norway Portugal Austria Colombia Colombia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan South Africa South Spain Africa United Kingdom MalaysiaMongolia Greece Switzerland Switzerland Mongolia United States United South States Korea Guatemala Poland Poland Netherlands Belgium North Korea GuatemalaPakistan

As previously mentioned, the original 12 signatories of the ATS a,d 15 other consultative nations hold the veto to decide on any matter related to Antarctica. Rest of the other non-consultative members can just be a part of the discussion, therefore it is evident that the future is controlled by the most powerful geopolitical forces. It is important to keep in mind that the Antarctic Treaty System is based on diplomatic consensus â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a system based on a lack of disagreement rather than agreement. Transparency and sharing of information is integral. Given the diversity of interests represented by a multitude of bodies, it is inherently fragile.

Canada Colombia Switzerland Guetamala Slovakia

Iceland Kazakhstan Mongolia

Japan Russia South Africa United States Poland

Ukraine Germany Ukraine Bulgaria China Bulgaria Czech Brazil Republic Czech Republic India Uruguay Ecuador Italy Sweden Finland Peru Spain South Korea Netherlands

Origins of human activities One of the first infrastructural developments in the sub-antarctic regions was to cater to commercial whaling and fishing on a very large scale. Even though it was eventually banned, this had inevitable consequences on the natural balance of the ecosystem.

FIG. 30 / A CAPTURED WHALE ON DECEPTION ISLAND, 1929

FIG. 29 / A PENGUIN BECAME A RADIO OPERATORâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S PET ON DECEPTION ISLAND

ANTARCTIC ANTARCTIC TREATYTREATY PARTIESPARTIES

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

EVOLUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

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The only form of human presence can be represented through various research stations and base facilities like ports and airports.

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FIG. 31-34 / EVOLUTION OF ENVIRONMENAL MANAGEMENT by Daniel Kiss

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FIG. 32. / 1990

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Through the introduction of the Committee for Environmental Protection, as a part of Madrid Protocol, it manifested its own territories in Antarctica in the name of CCAMLR, ASPA, ASMA & ACBR.

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These organisations spreaded their presence further at the turn of the century.

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FIG. 34. / 2019 This is the current state of Human presence in Antarctica.

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FIG. 35 / SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ASPA-S by Daniel Kiss

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Annex V to Environmental Protocol

Power relations of protection management

“An area of Antarctica may be designated an ASPA to protect outstanding environmental, scientific, historic, aesthetic or wilderness values, any combination of those values, or ongoing or planned scientific research. An area where activities are being conducted or may be conducted in the future may be designated as an ASMA , to assist in the planning and coordination of activities, avoid possible conflicts, improve cooperation between Parties or minimize environmental impacts.” (Ats.aq, 2019)

One of the most interesting aspects of this method of protection is that, once a patch of land is designated as a Protected Area, the controlling member holds the right to permit to enter into the area, therefore, one would need to have a permission granted by the country to enter into a particular ASPA! Clearly, the following diagrams show the distribution of this kind of colonization per country.

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FIG. 36 / TEMPORAL DIAGRAM OF ASPA-S by Daniel Kiss

AU, CN

AR, CL

CL, UK

AU, CN, IN, RU

IT, USA

USA

PROPONENT

2014

2010

ANNEX V ADOPTION

2000

1990

1980

DESIGNATION

1966

0-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200 201-225 226-250 251-275 276-300 301-325 326-350 351-375 376-400 401-425 426-450 451-475 476-500 501-525 526-550 551-575 576-600 601-625 626-650 651-675 676-700 701-725 726-750 751-775 776-800 801-825 826-850

P. OF AY KO RE A

IL E NT IN A ITA LY CH IN PO A LA ND FR AN CE RU SS IA IN DI A JA PA NO N

S IT ED TAT ES KI NG DO AU M ST NE RA W LI A ZE AL AN D

UN IT

Number of ASPAs UN

ST AT ES NG DO AU M ST NE RA W LI A ZE AL AN D C AR HIL E GE NT IN A ITA LY CH IN PO A LA ND FR AN CE RU SS IA IN DI A JA PA NO N RE RW P. OF AY KO RE A

IT ED

Number of ASPAs per country

14 70

12 60

10 50

8 40

6 30

4 20

2 10

0 0

16 80

14 70

12 60

10 50

8 40

6 30

4 20

2 10

0 0

Total number of ASPAs

Number of ASPAs

Number of ASPAs per country

FIG. 37 / PROXIMITY TO RESARCH STATIONS by Swadheet Chaturvedi

Total number of ASPAs

FIG. 38 / INCREASE OF ASPA-S BY COUNTRY bySwadheet Chaturvedi

15 20

10 20

05 20

Distance to Nearest Station (KM)

00 20

32 95 19

Every one of the 55 designated areas that protect Antarctica’s biodiversity lies closer to sites of high human activity than expected by chance. Seven lie in high-risk areas for biological invasions.

90 19

Five of the distinct ice-free ecoregions have no specially designated areas for the protection of biodiversity.

85 19

Antarctica’s ice-free area is 46,253 km2 of which only 1.5% of its ice-free area formally designated as specially protected areas.

80 19

PROTECTION FAILURE

75 19

02.4 70 19

65 19

FIG. 39 / RED SNOW ALGAE

PROTECTION FAILURE

Distance to Nearest Station (KM)

No. 96 Taishan Station, CN No. 96 Taishan Station, CN

Why protect?

LEGEND

ASPA ANTARCTIC SPECIALLY PROTECTER AREAS ASMA ASPA ANTARCTIC SPECIALLY MANAGED AREAS ASMA ACBR ANTARCTIC CONSERVATIONS OF BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS ACBRCORE DRILLING ICE FACILITIES FACILITIES ICE CORE DRILLING

Majority of Antarcticaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biodiversity is concentrated in ice-free areas. Threats to the ecological integrity of Antarctica are accelerating because of a growing variety, intensity, and frequency of human activities.

FACILITIES

FIG. 40 / HUMAN MANAGEMENT ON THE PENINSULA by Daniel Kiss

Human activities in Antarctica typically take two forms: Science & Tourism (with alarming increase).

ASMA No. 1. Admiralty Bay AR, CL, NO, SP, UK, USA

ASPA No. 133. Harmony Cove, Nelson Island AR, CL

ASPA No. 149. Cape Shirreff USA

WEDDEL SEA

ASPA No. 126. Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island CL, UK

ASMA No. 2. Deception Island

ASPA No. 134. Cierva Point AR ASPA No. 152. Western Barnfield Strait USA ASPA No. 153. Eastern Dallman Bay USA

ASMA No. 7. Southwest Anvers Island and Palmer Basin USA

LARSEN C ICE SHELF

PROTECTION FAILURE

ASPA and ACBR

Protected areas at risk of invasion

Natural reserve?

55 ASPAs on ice-free areas for their biodiversity values. 18 ASPAs (not considered here) conserve other values, such as historic sites or geologically important features, that are of concern to the ATS. Mean protected area of each ACBR IS 1.1%

ASPAs to tourist landing sites and scientific activity (i.e., established scientific facilities) are 289 km (range: 0 km to 2406 km) and 64 km (range: 0 km to 832 km).

Globally, 13% of terrestrial areas are protected. By comparison, only 1.5% of ice-free terrestrial Antarctica (0.005% of the total continental area) is formally. Protected for the purposes of biodiversity conservation. Two of the ASPAs at high risk of invasion already support nonindigenous species. (Anon, 2019)

Combining total percentage protection with a protection equality metric, as previously recommended but not implemented globally, provides an integrated protection metric by which Antarctica is ranked in the lowest quartile of countries large enough to assess, placed 69th (out of 84), between Mali and Kazakhstan.

The mean risk index of establishment of nonindigenous species for ASPAs is 12% (standard error Âą5%), significantly higher (by 24 times) than the mean risk for a randomly selected set of ice-free locations.

AMERY ICE SHELF

1000

ASMA No. 06. Larsemann Hills AU, CN, IN, RO, RU No. 48, Bharati, IN No. 22, Law, AU

ASPA No. 174. Stornes AU, CN, IN, RU

No. 75, Zhongshan, CN ASPA No. 169. Amanda Bay AU, CN

50 0

100 0

2000

FIG. 41 / HUMAN MANAGEMENT ON EAST ANTARCTICA by Daniel Kiss

150 0

2000

PRI

ELIZA NCESS

BETH

LAND

2500

ASPA No. 143. Marine Plain AU

No. 96 Taishan Station, CN

LEGEND

ROSS ICE SHELF ASPA No. 172. Lower Taylor Glacier and Blood Falls USA

ASPA No. 137. North-west White Island USA

ASPA No. 123. Barwick Valley USA

No. 217. Mcmurdo Station / USA

ASPA No. 131 Canada Glacier NZ No. 217. Mcmurdo Station / USA

ASMA No. 2 Mcmurdo Dry Valley Southern Victoria Land

ASPA No. 124. Cape Crozier USA

ROSS SEA

ASPA No. 161. Terra Nova Bay IT No. 172. Mario Zuchelli station / IT No. 164. Gondwana station / DE ASPA No. 173. Cape Washington and Silverfish Bay IT, USA

FIG. 42 / HUMAN MANAGEMENT AROUND MCMURDO VALLEY by Daniel Kiss

ANTARCTIC SPECIALLY PROTECTER AREAS ASPA ANTARCTIC SPECIALLY MANAGED AREAS ASMA ANTARCTIC CONSERVATIONS OF BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS ACBR ICE DRILLING SITES ICE CORE CORE DRILLING FACILITIES FACILITIES

03. ANALOGIES: CHOOSING A FUTURE

03.1. Human management: Deception Island

03.2. Natural systems: Thwaites Glacier

03.3. Conclusion: Global systems

FIG. 44 / SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF ASPA-S AND HUMAN FACILITIES by Swadheet Chaturvedi

FIG. 43 / TOURISM ON DECEPTION ISLAND

ANALOGIES: CHOOSING A FUTURE

03.1

HUMAN MANAGEMENT: DECEPTION ISLAND

A case of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula

FIG. 45 / LOCATION OF DECEPTION ISLAND by Swadheet Chaturvedi

“Deception Island, South Shetland Islands, has one of only two volcanoes in the Antarctic at which eruptions have been observed. Deception Island is a unique Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historic, educational, aesthetic and wilderness values. It contains a restless caldera that is actively deforming and it is therefore likely that Deception Island will witness further eruptions in the future. The Area has an exceptionally important flora, including at least 18 species which have not been recorded elsewhere in the Antarctic. Of particular importance are the very small, unique biological communities associated with the island’s geothermal area. The island also has eight species of breeding seabirds including the world’s largest colony of chinstrap penguins. The benthic habitat of Port Foster is of ecological interest due to the natural perturbations caused by volcanic activity.” (Ats.aq, 2019)

0KM

5KM

10KM

15KM

20KM

0KM

5KM

10KM

15KM

20KM

25KM

30KM

35KM

25KM

30KM

35KM

X H !

ΔΘ X !H ΔΘ X H !

Δ!H Θ X

Δ Θ

Θ!H

H !

Δ Θ ΔΘ

H !

Θ H ! Δ

Δ Θ Δ

ΔX H !

ΔΘ H !

H !

ΔΘ X !H

Δ Θ

Δ!HX

FIG. 46 / HUMAN PRESENCE IN DECEPTION ISLAND by Swadheet Chaturvedi

H !

ANALOGIES: CHOOSING A FUTURE

DECEPTION ISLAND

ASPA 140 K

ASPA 140 A

Protected in particular for scientific research, which includes long-term colonisation studies and ground temperature measurements.

While ASPA 140 is protected primarily for its outstanding environmental values (specifically its biological diversity) it is also protected for its scientific values (ie, for terrestrial biology, zoology, geomorphology and geology). While 140 A Contains a particularly wide diversity of species.

SOUTH POLE

DECEPTION ISLAND DECEPTION ISLAND DECEPTION DECEPTION ISLAND ISLAND

Deception Island is a unique Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historDeception Island is aaesthetic unique Antarctic island important ic, educational and values. Over thewith years, differentnatural, parts ofscientific, the islandhistorhave Deception Island isaaaaaesthetic uniqueAntarctic Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historDeception Island isis unique island with important natural, scientific, historDeception Island is unique Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historic, educational values. the years, different parts of the island have Deception unique Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historbeen given Island legaland protection under the Over Antarctic Treaty following piecemeal proposals. ic,educational educational and aesthetic values. Over theyears, years, different parts ofthe theisland island have ic, and aesthetic values. the different parts ofof have ic, educational and aesthetic values. Over the years, different parts of the island have ic, educational and aesthetic values. Over different parts the island have been given legal protection under theOver Antarctic Treaty following proposals. island. In 2000, an integrated strategy forthe theyears, management ofpiecemeal activities there was beengiven given legalprotection protection under theAntarctic Antarctic Treaty following piecemeal proposals. been legal under the following piecemeal been given legal protection under the Antarctic Treaty following piecemeal proposals. been given legal protection under the Antarctic Treaty following piecemeal proposals. island. In Argentina, 2000, an integrated strategy forand theTreaty management of activitiesproposals. there was agreed by Chile, Norway, Spain the UK. island.InIn In2000, 2000,an anintegrated integratedstrategy strategyfor forthe themanagement managementofof ofactivities activitiesthere therewas was island. island. In 2000, an integrated strategy for the management of activities there was island. 2000, an integrated strategy for the management activities there was agreed by Argentina, Chile, Norway, Spain and the UK. agreedby byArgentina, Argentina,Chile, Chile,Norway, Norway,Spain Spainand andthe theUK. UK. agreed agreed by Argentina, Chile, Norway, Spain and the UK. agreed by Argentina, Chile, Norway, Spain and the UK. This strategy recommended an island-wide approach. Deception Island would be This strategy recommended an island-wide Deception Island be proposed as an Antarctic Specially Managedapproach. Area (ASMA) comprising a would matrix of Thisstrategy strategy recommended anisland-wide island-wide approach. Deception Island would be This an approach. Deception Island be This strategy recommended an island-wide approach. Deception Island would be proposed as recommended an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) comprising awould matrix of This strategy recommended an island-wide approach. Deception Island would be Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and further zones in which activities proposedSpecially asan anAntarctic Antarctic Specially Managedand Areafurther (ASMA) comprising matrix of proposed as Specially Area (ASMA) comprising aaaamatrix ofof proposed as an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) comprising matrix of Antarctic Areas Managed (ASPAs) zones in which activities proposed as an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) comprising matrix would be subject to aProtected code of conduct. Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) (ASPAs) and and further further zones zones inin in which which activities activities Antarctic Areas Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and further zones in which activities Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and further zones which activities would beSpecially subject toProtected a code of conduct. wouldbe besubject subjectto toaaaacode codeofof ofconduct. conduct. would would be subject to code of conduct. would be subject to code conduct.

SOUTH POLE SOUTH POLE SOUTH SOUTHPOLE POLE

ANTARCTIC PENINSULA

FALIURE OF ASPA FALIURE OF ASPA FALIURE FALIURE OF OF ASPA ASPA

Antarctica's ice-free area is 46,253 km2 of which only 1.5% of its ice-free area Antarctica's ice-free as area is 46,253 km2 ofareas. which only 1.5% of its ice-free area formally designated specially protected Antarctica's ice-freearea area is46,253 46,253 km2 ofof ofwhich whichonly only1.5% 1.5%ofof ofits itsice-free ice-freearea area Antarctica's ice-free isis km2 Antarctica's ice-free area is 46,253 km2 of which only 1.5% of its ice-free area formally as specially protected Antarctica's area 46,253 km2 which only 1.5% its ice-free area Every onedesignated ofice-free the 55 designated areas that areas. protect Antarctica's biodiversity lies formally designated asspecially speciallyprotected protected areas. formally designated areas. formally designated as specially protected areas. Antarctica's lies formally designated as specially protected areas. Every one of the 55as designated areas thatexpected protect by closer to sites of high human activity than chance. biodiversity Everyone one ofthe the 55designated designated areas thatexpected protectAntarctica's Antarctica's biodiversitylies lies Every ofof 55 areas that protect biodiversity Every one of the 55 designated areas that protect Antarctica's biodiversity lies closer to sites of high human activity than by chance. Every one the 55 designated areas that protect biodiversity lies ASPAs to tourist landing sites and scientific activityAntarctica's established scientific closerto tosites sitesofof ofhigh highhuman humanactivity activitythan thanexpected expected by(i.e., chance. closer by chance. closer to sites of high human activity than expected by chance. closer to sites high human activity than expected by chance. ASPAs toare tourist landing sites and scientific activity (i.e., established scientific facilities) 289 km (range: 0 km to 2406 km) and 64 km (range: 0 km to 832 km). ASPAsto totourist touristlanding landingsites sitesand andscientific scientificactivity activity(i.e., (i.e.,established establishedscientific scientific ASPAs ASPAs to tourist landing sites and scientific activity (i.e., established scientific ASPAs to tourist landing sites and (i.e., established facilities) are 289 km (range: 0 km to scientific 2406 km) activity and 64 km (range: 0 km toscientific 832 km). The mean risk index of establishment of nonindigenous species for ASPAs is 12% facilities)are are289 289km km(range: (range:0000km kmto to2406 2406km) km)and and64 64km km(range: (range:0000km kmto to832 832km). km). facilities) facilities) are 289 km (range: km to 2406 km) and 64 km (range: km to 832 km). facilities) km (range: km to 2406 km) and 64 km (range: km to 832 km). The meanare risk289 index of establishment of nonindigenous species for ASPAs isfor 12% (standard error ±5%), significantly higher (by 24 times) than the mean risk a Themean meanrisk riskindex indexofof ofestablishment establishmentofof ofnonindigenous nonindigenousspecies speciesfor forASPAs ASPAsisis is 12% 12% The The mean risk index of establishment of nonindigenous species for ASPAs 12% The mean risk index establishment nonindigenous species ASPAs (standard error ±5%), higher (by 24 times) than thefor mean riskis12% for a randomly selected set significantly of ice-free locations. (standarderror error±5%), ±5%), significantly higher(by (by24 24times) times)than thanthe themean meanrisk riskfor foraaaa (standard higher (standard error ±5%), significantly higher (by 24 times) than the mean risk for (standard error ±5%), significantly higher (by 24 times) than the mean risk for randomly selected setsignificantly of ice-free locations. randomlyselected selectedset setofof ofice-free ice-freelocations. locations. randomly randomly selected set of ice-free locations. randomly selected set ice-free locations.

ANTARCTIC PENINSULA ANTARCTIC PENINSULA ANTARCTIC ANTARCTICPENINSULA PENINSULA

TRI

ASPA 140 K ASPA 140 K ASPA140 140KKKKin particular for ASPA ASPA 140 Protected ASPA 140 Protected research, in particular for scientific which Protected in in particular particular for Protected for Protected in particular for scientific research, which Protected in particular for includes scientific long-term research, coloniwhich scientific research, which scientific research, which scientific research, which includes long-term colonisation studies and ground includes long-term coloniincludes long-term coloniincludes long-term coloniincludes long-term colonisation studies andmeasureground temperature sation studies studies and and ground ground sation sation studies and ground sation studies and ground temperature measurements. temperature measuretemperature measuretemperature measuretemperature measurements. ments. ments. ments. ments.

ASPA 140 A ASPA 140 A ASPA140 140 ASPA AAAA 140 is protected ASPA 140 While ASPA ASPA 140 While ASPA is protected primarily for 140 its outstanding While ASPA ASPA 140 is protected While isis protected While ASPA 140 is protected primarily for140 its outstanding While ASPA 140 protected environmental values (specifiprimarily for for its its outstanding primarily outstanding primarily for its outstanding primarily for its outstanding environmental values (specifically its biological diversity) it is environmental values (specifienvironmental values (specifienvironmental values (specifically its biological diversity) it is environmental values (specifialso protected for its scientific callyits itsbiological biological diversity) itisis is cally itit cally its biological diversity) it is also protected fordiversity) its scientific cally its biological diversity) values (ie, for terrestrial bioloalsoprotected protectedfor forits itsscientific scientific also also protected for its scientific also protected for its scientific values (ie, for geomorphology terrestrial biology, zoology, values(ie, (ie,for forterrestrial terrestrialbiolobiolovalues values (ie, for terrestrial biolovalues (ie, for terrestrial biology, zoology, geomorphology and geology). While 140 A gy, zoology, zoology, geomorphology geomorphology gy, gy, zoology, geomorphology gy, zoology, geomorphology and geology). While 140 A Contains a particularly wide and geology). geology). While While 140 140 AA A and and geology). While 140 A and geology). While 140 Contains a particularly wide diversity Containsofaaaaspecies. particularly wide wide Contains particularly Contains particularly wide Contains particularly wide diversity of species. diversityof ofspecies. species. diversity diversity of species. diversity of species.

ASPA ASPA ASPA ASPA ASPA Value ASPA Value design Value Values Value desig Value sity desigo design desig desig sity o differe sity oo o sity sity o differ sity substr differ differe differ differ subst about subst substr subst subst abou recolo abou about abou abou recolo erupt recol recolo recol recolo erupt from erupt erupti erupt erupt from ence. fromt from from ence. from ence. ence. ence. ence.

TRINITY ISLAND TRINITY ISLAND TRINITY TRINITYISLAND ISLAND

ACCESS ROUTE FROM CHILE 140 F (UK)

by Swadheet Chaturvedi

FIG. 47 / DECEPTION ISLAND PERSPECTIVE

ACCESS ROUTE FROM ARGENTINA

ACCESS ROUTE FROM ARGENTINA ACCESS ROUTE FROM ARGENTINA ACCESSROUTE ROUTEFROM FROMARGENTINA ARGENTINA ACCESS ACCESS ROUTE FROM ARGENTINA

140 A (UK) 140 A (UK) 140AAA(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

ACCESS ROUTE FROM CHILE ACCESS ROUTE FROM CHILE ACCESS ACCESSROUTE ROUTEFROM FROMCHILE CHILE 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140 140FF(UK) (UK)

140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

SPANISH BASE SPANISH BASE SPANISHBASE BASE SPANISH SPANISH BASE

X 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

Deception Island is a unique Antarctic island with important natural, scientific, historic, educational and aesthetic values. Over the years, different parts of the island have been given legal protection under the Antarctic Treaty following piecemeal proposals. island. In 2000, an integrated strategy for the management of activities there was agreed by Argentina, Chile, Norway, Spain and the UK. This strategy recommended an island-wide approach. Deception Island would be proposed as an Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) comprising a matrix of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and further zones in which activities would be subject to a code of conduct.

X X XX X

X XX XΘ Θ ΔΘ Θ ΔΘ ΔΔ Δ

145 A (CHILE) 145 A (CHILE) 145AAA(CHILE) (CHILE) 145 145 (CHILE)

X X XX X Θ Θ Θ Θ Θ Δ Δ ΔΔ Δ

Ship Routes Ship Routes Ship ShipRoutes Routes Landing Site Landing Site LandingSite Site Landing Landing Site

SHIP ROUTES LANDING SITE Helipad Helipad Helipad Helipad Helipad HELIPAD Camping Site Camping Site CampingSite Site Camping Camping Site CAMPING SITE Penguin Colony Penguin Colony Penguin Colony Penguin Colony PENGUIN COLONY Penguin Colony Invasive Species Invasive Species Invasive Species Invasive Species INVASIVE SPECIES Invasive Species Base Base Base BASE Base Base ASPA ASPA ASPA ASPA ASPA

145 B (CHILE) 145 B (CHILE) 145 145BB(CHILE) (CHILE)

1 1 14 11

140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

Δ XΘ Δ Θ Δ XΘ Θ ΔΔ XX X Θ

Δ Θ Θ Δ Θ ΔΔ Θ X Δ Θ X XX X

ASPA 145 A&B

ASPA 140 F

ASPA 140 B

Values protected under original designation included the diversity of benthic fauna on two different kinds of sea bottom substrates. The original research about the ecological process of recolonization after volcanic eruption needed protection from the risk of undue interference.

It is vulnerable to human interference, in particular, due to highly restricted spatial distribution of many plant species, particularly those associated with heated ground.

It is distinct from other areas due to the geothermally-heated ground in some parts of the island which create habitats of great ecological importance unique to the Antarctic Peninsula region.

THWAITES THWAITES GLACIER GLACIER BRABANT ISLAND BRABANT ISLAND

INITY ISLAND TRINITY ISLAND

A 145 A&B

ASPA 140 F ASPA 140 F ASPA 140FFFF 140 ASPA 140 ItASPA is vulnerable to human interASPA 140 It is vulnerable to human interference, in particular, due to Itisis isvulnerable vulnerable tohuman human interItference, to interIt is vulnerable to human interin particular, due to It vulnerable to human interhighly spatial distriference,restricted in particular, particular, due to ference, inin due to ference, in particular, due to ference, particular, due to highly restricted spatial distribution of many species, highly restricted restrictedplant spatial distrihighly spatial distrihighly restricted spatial distrihighly restricted spatial distribution of many plant species, particularly those associated bution of of many many plant plant species, species, bution bution of many plant species, bution of many plant species, particularly those associated with heated ground. particularly those those associated associated particularly particularly those associated particularly those associated with heated ground. withheated heatedground. ground. with with heated ground. with heated ground.

A 145 A&B 145 A&B A&B 145 A&B es protected under original AAA145 145 A&B es protected under nation included theoriginal diveres protected under original s protected under original es protected under original gnation included the diveres under original of protected benthic fauna on two gnation included the divernation included the gnation included the diverof benthic fauna ondivertwo gnation included diverent kinds of seathe bottom of benthic benthic fauna on two of fauna on two of benthic fauna on two rent kinds of sea research bottom of benthic fauna on two rates. The original rent kinds kinds of of sea sea bottom bottom ent rent kinds of sea bottom rent of sea bottom trates. The original research ttrates. the kinds ecological process of Theoriginal originalresearch research rates. trates. The original research trates. The original research ut the The ecological process of onization after volcanic ut theecological ecologicalprocess processof of tonization the ut the ecological process of ut the ecological process of afterprotection volcanic tion needed lonization after volcanic volcanic onization after lonization after volcanic onization after volcanic tion needed protection the risk of undue interfertion needed needed protection protection ion tion needed protection tion needed protection the risk of undue interfertherisk riskof ofundue undueinterferinterferthe risk of undue interferthe risk of undue interfer.the ...

THWAITES GLACIER THWAITES GLACIER THWAITES THWAITESGLACIER GLACIER

ASPA 140 B ASPA 140 B ASPA 140BBBB from other areas 140 ASPA 140 It ASPA is distinct ASPA 140 It is to distinct from other areas due the geothermally-heatIt isis is distinct distinct from other other areas areas Itdue from It is distinct from other areas to theingeothermally-heatIt distinct from other ed ground some parts ofareas the due tothe thegeothermally-heatgeothermally-heatdue to due to the geothermally-heatdue to the ed ground ingeothermally-heatsome parts of the island which create habitats of edground ground insome someparts parts ofthe the ed inin of ed ground in some parts of the island which create habitats of ed ground some parts of the great ecological islandwhich which createimportance habitatsof of island create habitats island which create habitats of great ecological importance island which create habitats of unique to the Antarctic Peningreat ecological ecological importance importance great great ecological importance great ecological importance unique to the Antarctic Peninsula region. uniqueto tothe theAntarctic AntarcticPeninPeninunique unique to the Antarctic Peninunique to the Antarctic Peninsula region. sularegion. region. sula sula region. sula region.

BRABANT ISLAND BRABANT ISLAND BRABANT BRABANTISLAND ISLAND

470

140 A (UK)

140 F (UK)

470

140 A (UK) SPANISH BASESPANISH BASE

140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK)

KM 47700 KMM 4 0KKKM 4447700

140 F (UK)

X Θ Δ 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

140 F (UK) ARGENTINIAN ARGENTINIAN BASE BASE

X Θ Δ

140 F (UK)

ARGENTINIAN BASE ARGENTINIAN BASE ARGENTINIANBASE BASE ARGENTINIAN ARGENTINIAN BASE

140 F (UK)

Δ 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK) 140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140FFF(UK) (UK) 140 140 (UK)

145 A (CHILE) 145 A (CHILE) Δ ΔΔ Δ

145 B (CHILE) 145 B (CHILE)

Θ Θ Θ Θ Θ

140 F (UK) 140 F (UK) 140 (UK) 40 FFF(UK) 140 (UK)

Δ Θ Θ ΔΔ Δ Θ Θ Δ

Δ Θ Θ Δ Θ ΔΔ Θ Δ Θ

140 F (UK)

Θ Δ XΘ Δ XΘ Δ Δ Θ Δ Θ Δ Θ ΔΔ Θ Θ

Δ Θ

Θ Δ

ANALOGIES: CHOOSING A FUTURE

03.2 FIG. 48 / RECEDING THWAITES GLACIER

NATURAL SYSTEMS: THWAITES GLACIER

Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

FIG. 49 / ICE VELOCITY IN THE CATCHMENT AREA by Daniel Kiss

Thwaites, which is comparable in size to Britain, is what’s termed a marine-terminating glacier. Snows fall inland and these compact into ice that then flows out to sea. When in balance the quantity of snow at the glacier’s head matches the ice lost to the ocean at its front through the calving of icebergs. But Thwaites is out of balance. It has speeded up and is currently flowing at over 4 km per year. It is also thinning at a rate of almost 40 cm a year. Satellite data suggests Thwaites alone accounts for around 4% of global sea-level rise - an amount that has doubled since the mid-1990’s.

Geomorphology, through the lens of Thwaites

FIG. 50 / SUBGLACIAL STREAMS OF THWAITES by Daniel Kiss

“West Antarctica is considered the most vulnerable of Earth’s three major ice sheets. It rests in a deep, broad bowl that dips thousands of feet below sea level – exposing it to warm ocean currents. It would raise sea level by 11 feet if it collapsed.”(News.nationalgeographic.com, 2019) Thwaites is an interesting example of this as it is one of the ice sheets receding at an alarming rate, and if it is lost, it could contribute to more than 4m of sea level rise on its own. Furthermore, it could also destabilize the other glaciers attached to it. It is predicted to have catastrophic consequences if it is not looked up to.

Ice free areas

Subglacial meltwater

The Antarctic is also an important barometer for how climate change is impacting our planet. Scientists can read Antarctic ice cores like a record going back for hundreds of thousands of years, comparing levels of carbon dioxide in atmosphere from the past 800,000 years with today’s measurements. This sends us the important warning that carbon dioxide levels are higher now than they’ve ever been.

Antarctic ice free areas refer to relatively small rocky patches throughout the continent, usually appearing on higher elevations of trans-antarctic mountain ranges and other higher points. Antarctica’s total ice-free area is 46,253 km2.

A subglacial meltwater channel is a channel beneath an ice mass, such as ice sheets and valley glaciers, roughly parallel to the main ice flow direction. These channels can be as big as kilometer wide valleys.

FIG. 51 / SECTION-VIEW OF THWAITES GLACIER by Daniel Kiss

Glaciology - Ice core drilling

Grounding line

Coastline

The grounding line of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is that part where the glaciers exporting the ice down the continent loose contact to the ground and become a floating ice shelf. This is a dynamic line which keeps shifting as warm water on the sea bed within the convergence comes in contact with it, thereby calving it.

Antarctica does not have a permanent coastline, however, it is generally considered to be the outer boundary of Permafrost, be it in the form of ice shelves or continental glaciers, which is 17,968 km long. However, over a long period of time, even this line is dynamic for obvious reasons.

Ocean system

Now there is more warm ocean water encroaching into the convergence, which otherwise would keep Antarcticaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ecosystem isolated. As a consequence, not only the circumpolar current is shrinking, but also the sea-ice extent is depleting. This excessive global warming is responsible for calving much of the Thwaites causing continental and possible causing global consequences. This process will accelerate, unless the current human activities are managed in sync with such natural processes.

FIG. 52 / LOCATION OF THWAITES GLACIER by Daniel Kiss

Global warming is not only warming up the lands, but it has also started to warm up the global oceans, which were typically responsible for having a cooling effect on the macroclimate.

136 127

167 168

174 169

143

164 102 101

FIG. 53 / EARTH SYSTEMS + HUMAN MANAGEMENT by Daniel Kiss

141

AU AR CN CL FR NO NZ IN IT JP KR PL RU UK USA

163

142

111 110

109

119

128148

151 133 125

132 108 113 145 145 112 126 115 107 147 126 134 152 139 146 146 129 117 144 153 149 149 140

170

ACBR

THWAITES GLACIER

DECEPTION ISLAND

166

AU AU

166

123 123 172 172 172 172 121 123 121 123 131 156 154 157131 156 154 157 104 105 116 104 105 116 161 165 173 161 165 173 172 175 172 175 137 138 137 138 105 105 104 155 159 104 155 159 106 106 124 124 122 122

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03.3 CONCLUSION: GLOBAL SCALE

USA UK RU PL USA KR JP UK IT RU IN PLNZ KRNO JP FR IT CL IN CN NZ AR NOAU FR CL CN AR AU

Weakening Ocean System Global warming is not only warming up the lands, but it has also started to warm up the global oceans, which were typically responsible for having a cooling effect on the macroclimate. Now there is more warm ocean water encroaching into the convergence, which otherwise would keep Antarctica’s ecosystem isolated. As a consequence, not only the circumpolar current is shrinking, but also the sea-ice extent is depleting.This excessive global warming is responsible for calving much of the Thwaites causing continental and possible causing global consequences. This process is only going to accelerate, unless the current human activities are managed in sync with such natural processes.

Human Management and its consequences The current methods of managing Antarctica is clearly inefficient as it has some direct and indirect consequences. It is evident through the fact that the mean distance of a Specially Protected Area to a Research Facility is 64km and to Tourist landing site is 289 km. This ironically allows a very high risk letting Non-indigenous species invade the otherwise “protected” spaces of Antarctica

Territorialisation Through Protection

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60°

SEA ICE EXTENT

THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION

It is obvious how conveniently the mankind has deemed areas to be protected so close to where they are present, whereas in reality it completely defeats the purpose of protection itself. These protected areas behave as territories of various global forces, but fails to identify the natural systems and processes. This can be seen through the case of how quickly Thwaites Glacier is dissolving into the sea, having global consequences on an alarming rate. Clearly, we need to re-define the act of protection and how we assess what must be protected/ managed. The failure of current legislative framework of protecting certain areas in the name of research, or conservation of biology is in the fact that humans end up drawing unorganized imaginary lines throughout Antarctica, assuming that what is inside those artificial boundaries will be protected from the outside world.

REFERENCES

WEBSITES:

Ukaht.org. (2019). UKAHT - The Heroic Era. [online] Available at: http://www.ukaht.org/learn/the-heroic-era/ [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. South-pole.com. (2019). Antarctic Time Line of Discovery. [online] Available at: http://www.south-pole. com/p0000052.htm [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. Greenpeace UK. (2019). What does climate change mean for the Antarctic? | Greenpeace UK. [online] Available at: https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/ what-climate-change-means-for-the-antarctic/ [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. Nsidc.org. (2019). Quick Facts on Ice Sheets | National Snow and Ice Data Center. [online] Available at: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets. html [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. Ats.aq. (2019). ATS - Area Protection and Management / Monuments. [online] Available at: https://www.ats. aq/e/ep_protected.htm [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. News.nationalgeographic.com. (2019). The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Seems to Be Good at Collapsing. [online] Available at: https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-climate-change/ [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019]. Ats.aq. (2019). ATS - Area Protection and Management / Monuments. [online] Available at: https://www.ats. aq/devPH/apa/ep_protected_detail.aspx?type=3&id=77&lang=e [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019].

RESEARCH PAPER:

Anon, (2019). [online] Available at: https://www.ncbi. nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4060989/ [Accessed 16 Apr. 2019].

COVER AND INTERNAL PAGES (BELOW):

photography by Kirsten le Mar, Iceberg mirage or fata morgana, Sea ice test for drilling site, Australian Antarctic Division, 7 April 2017