A
Th e
Component Manufacturing dverti$ dverti $ er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$$er
December 2021 #13269 Page #100
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Softwood Framing Lumber Market Forecast
Discount the Most Recent Past How should we process the cumulative life experiences that determine our next course of action? We might say, “That depends on the circumstance.” If I got mugged today for the first time in my life, it is likely I am going to be more aware of immediate surroundings tomorrow. However, I must not be so focused on the close by and ignore the oncoming traffic. There is a balance that I must keep to avoid further undesired situations. The most recent events tend to impact the “next” decisions. As days pass and no more muggings happen, I would drift back more towards pre-mugging behaviors, but the experience would still be in my cumulative life experiences. The takeaway for us all is to look beyond the emotional, physical, and psychological impact of a life event as quickly as is practicable. That does not mean avoid grief or caution. A life threatening, or terminal illness, or tragedy will no doubt influence one’s future, and create the need for behavioral deviations. Put in lumber market perspective, misreading a unique situation that passes quickly (a weather disruption) will have less influence on a “next” decision than a long lasting condition will (supply chain disruption). The ultimate question to ask is, “Will this event, disruption, improvement have a lasting impact?” “Is it a slight curve in the road or 90 degree turn or possibly a U-turn?” Reduction of Canadian supply appears to be a U-turn. But is it really, or is it a political pandering that could be reversed by a change of leadership? I believe Canadian lumber producers saw this raw material and duty conflict coming decades ago. Instead of engaging in an ongoing fight with the Crown they invested where there was no conflict...the southern U.S., discounting recency and focusing on the bigger picture.
Same Picture, Different Frame? We understand that our lumber market repeats with its most recent occurrences having the most influence on our next decisions. And we understand why we repeat those actions of recency. EGO! We seek to improve the previous outcome.
Continued next page
PHONE: 800-289-5627
Read/Subscribe online at www.componentadvertiser.com
FAX: 800-524-4982