CA R M E L R E A LT Y C O M PA N Y
Q2 2022 Market Report
C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , B I G S U R & S O U T H C O A S T, M O N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y O A K S , B I G SU R & SO UTH COA ST PA C I F I C G R O V E Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O.■ Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com | DRE#01871627 Dolores South of Seventh P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s
Letter From Courtney Dear Friends, The market is changing. But it’s not doomsday. It is simply normalizing to pre-COVID levels. What happened to the real estate market during COVID was extraordinary. Sales prices soared 30-40%, a pace that was just not sustainable. Sales prices peaked in early Q2. In almost every market in this report, the average sales price is down from what we saw earlier this year and last. We are seeing more price reductions and an increase in inventory, which of course is typical for the summer selling season. While buyers are concerned about rising interest rates, stock market volatility and inflation, our market remains healthy. Demand is strong and outpacing supply. Marketing time is still low and inventory is still limited. Rather than multiple offers, we’re seeing one or two with a closing price near asking. For sellers, it is really important to price realistically. With an inflated list price comes longer marketing periods and ultimately a lower closing price. And for buyers, now represents an opportunity with less competition and a bit more time to make decisions. The balance that is slowly returning to the market is a good thing. It gives buyers confidence and sellers still have a product that is in high demand while prices remain close to their record highs. Of course every neighborhood is different so please look through the following pages and feel free to reach out should you have specific questions. Best,
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Courtney Jones
2
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
My Significant Sales of Q2 2022
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
5466 Quail Way, Carmel ■ SP: $9,000,000 Represented Buyer
San Carlos 5 SW 13th, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $2,900,000 Represented Buyer
24348 San Juan Road, Carmel ■ SP: $2,300,000 Represented Buyer
150 Littlefield Road, Monterey ■ SP: $1,810,000 Represented Seller
22742 Ordonez Drive, Salinas ■ SP: $1,299,000 Represented Buyer
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
3
Market Overview
R
eal estate markets across the country are cooling down after two years of pandemic related growth. With macro-economic pressure, inflation, and higher interest rates, sales volumes have declined in most markets throughout the US. After almost eight quarters of extraordinary growth Monterey Peninsula Real Estate is also showing signs of “Normalizing” although the decline is not as significant as many parts of the country. Demand for living in this region remains extremely high and continues to outpace supply. With inventory of homes for sale still low across the Peninsula, average sale prices have remained high. For Q2 of 2022 the average sale price across the Peninsula was $1,922 down just 12% from last quarters high and slightly ahead of the average sale price at this time last year. The number of sales in Q2 was slightly higher than last quarter, but the average sales price and total dollar volume were down from the previous quarter. This decline was heavily driven by fewer high-priced sales in Pebble Beach. In Q1 of this year there were 3 homes that sold for over $26M in Pebble Beach which skewed the average sale price and total volume higher in Q1 than in Q2. All nine markets we track in the attached report show healthy growth from Q2 of last year to Q2 of this year. The Greater Carmel, Monterey, Seaside, and Marina markets all reached new historical high average sale prices this quarter. Our proprietary data still tells us that there are many more buyers looking to purchase here than there are homes for sale. Clients tell us that the reasons for wanting to live here on the Peninsula remain as strong as ever. With this genuine desire and a limited amount of inventory, we do feel as though our market is more insulated than many. With a shifting market, tracking key analytic drivers has never been more important. Our analytics team is constantly reviewing all market conditions including supply, demand, pricing, competitive bidding, multiple offers, and over asking offers. This intelligence is essential in accurately pricing a home for sale and in advising clients on comparable value when bidding on a home. The market is changing and our agents have a dedicated team of local analytics experts evaluating micro-level variables which help clients make informed decisions when buying or selling in this environment. The following report details the dynamic variance by market across the Peninsula. We hope you will find this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.
4
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Carmel-by-the-Sea &&Carmel Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel-by-the-Sea & CarmelPoint Point.................. ............ 6 6 Carmel Point ........................................... 6 Greater GreaterCarmel Carmel.................................................... .............................................. 8 8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point TheGreater areas outsideCarmel of Carmel-by-the ....................................... Sea & Carmel Point 8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel CarmelValley Valley..................................................... ............................................... 1010 Carmel Valley......................................... 10 Including The Santa Lucia Preserve Pebble PebbleBeach Beach....................................................... .................................................. 1212 Pebble Beach........................................... 12 Carmel CarmelHighlands, Highlands,Big Sur & South Coast .... 14 Big Sur & Highlands, South Coast ................................ 14 Carmel Monterey ReyCoast Oaks................................. Big Sur&&Del South .......................... 14 16 Pacific Grove ............................................... 16 Pacific Grove ...................................................... 18 Monterey ...................................................... 18
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
5
C A R M E L - B Y-T H E - S E A
Market Update
Q
uarter 2 of 2022 in Carmel-by-the-Sea saw more high prices, but with limited inventory and lower sales volume than the last four quarters. The quarter began with just 13 properties on the market, contributing to a lower than average 33 sales during the period. Total sales dollar volume was down just 10% from Q1 of this year but off 30% from the record quarter at this time last year. An average sales price of $3.36 million was the second highest in Carmel-by-theSea history. Several of the 33 homes sold this quarter received multiple offers while the speed of sale hit a record 8 days on the market, which demonstrates that the demand to live here remains extremely high.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 1 $1M-$2M | 6 $2M-$3M | 9 $3M-$5M | 12 $5M+ | 5
6
15%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$3,365,254 3.7% vs Q1 2022 3% vs Q2 2021 SALES VOLUME
7.6% vs Q1 2022 30.6% vs Q2 2021
3%
27%
8
DAYS ON MARKET
74.2% vs Q1 2022 78.9% vs Q2 2021
18%
36%
$111.1M
UNITS SOLD
33
10.8% vs Q1 2022 32.7% vs Q2 2021
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $4M
40
$3M
30
$2M
20
$1M
10
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$190M
$4M
40
$143M
$3M
30 $2M
$95M 20
$1M
$48M
10
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
7
G R E AT E R C A R M E L
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he Greater Carmel area experienced its best quarter ever in terms of average sales price, median sales price, and total sales volume. This was assisted by 30% of sales topping $3 million in the quarter, including the former home of Betty White selling twice in the same quarter for over $10 million. Even with these two large sales removed, the average sales price in the area would have set a record high, topping $2.4 million. With Carmel-by-the-Sea inventories so low, we are seeing buyers look more toward and be willing to pay more for the Greater Carmel area.
62.5% vs Q1 2022 49.3% vs Q2 2021
<$1M | 2 $1M-$2M | 10 $2M-$3M | 6 $3M-$5M | 4 $5M+ | 4
8
15% 23%
$79M
SALES VOLUME
92% vs Q1 2022 38.7% vs Q2 2021
15% SALES BY SEGMENT
$3,037,404
DAYS ON MARKET
8%
38%
25
25% vs Q1 2022 19.4% vs Q2 2021 UNITS SOLD
26
18.2% vs Q1 2022 7.1% vs Q2 2021
Greater Carmel
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $3.2M
50
$2.4M
38
$1.6M
25
$800K
13
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$80M
28
$60M
21
$40M
14
$20M
7
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $3.2M
$2.4M
$1.6M
$800K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
9
C A R M E L VA L L E Y
Market Update
C
armel Valley experienced a solid Q2 of 2022 after a down Q1 this year. 62 sales in the quarter is slightly above pre-COVID levels, although down from the six quarters between July 2020 and end of year 2021. Average sales prices remain high at over $1.9 million, the second highest total on record, while the median sales price actually dipped to $1.35 million, the lowest since Q2 of 2020. Overall, with sales prices remaining high, a healthy sales volume topping $120M, and 45 homes on market to end the quarter, Carmel Valley continues to show promise as one of the strongest areas in our market moving forward.
SALES BY SEGMENT
<$1M | 19 $1M-$2M | 25 $2M-$3M | 7 $3M-$5M | 7 $5M+ | 4
10
40%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$1,944,357 6.7% vs Q1 2022 3.9% vs Q2 2021 SALES VOLUME
$120.5M 40.7% vs Q1 2022 25.1% vs Q2 2021
11%
DAYS ON MARKET
6.3% vs Q1 2022 42.3% vs Q2 2021
11% 31%
6%
30
UNITS SOLD
62
31.9% vs Q1 2022 27.9% vs Q2 2021
Carmel Valley
Including The Santa Lucia Preserve
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.1M
60
$1.6M
45
$1.1M
30
$525K
15
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$170M
90
$128M
68
$85M
45
$43M
23
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.1M
$1.6M
$1.1M
$525K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
11
P E B B L E B E AC H
Market Update
P
ebble Beach had very slow quarter compared to the previous seven quarters. There were just 20 homes sold in Q2, down 54% from Q2 quarter last year and well below pre-pandemic numbers. Total sales dollar volume was down 54% from the previous quarter and 51% from Q2 of last year. This quarterly volume is more consistent with pre-COVID quarters of 2019 and prior, suggesting the market is normalizing. While down 42% from Q1 of 2022 (due to 3 sales over $26 million in Q1), the average sale price of $4.95M remains strong in Pebble Beach. Carmel Realty Company was proud to represent the three highest priced sales in Pebble Beach during Q2, 2022.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 2 $1M-$2M | 1 $2M-$3M | 5 $3M-$5M | 5 $5M+ | 7
12
35%
25%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$4,956,910 42.5% vs Q1 2022 6.1% vs Q2 2021
$99.1M
SALES VOLUME
54% vs Q1 2022 51.8% vs Q2 2021
DAYS ON MARKET
8.9% vs Q1 2022 18% vs Q2 2021
10% 5% 25%
41
UNITS SOLD
20
20% vs Q1 2022 54.5% vs Q2 2021
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Pebble Beach
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $9M
50
$6.8M
38
$4.5M
25
$2.3M
13
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$220M
$9M
40
$165M
$6.8M
30 $4.5M
$110M 20
$2.3M
$55M
10 Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
13
CARMEL HIGHLANDS
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he Carmel Highlands and Big Sur area continued its high average sales price at over $4.8 million. This was slightly down from the previous quarter which was positively impacted by some very high-priced transactions. There were only eight sales in Q2, lower than the previous seven quarters, but consistent with pre-2020 levels. Five of the eight sales were on market for less than a week. Four of the eight sales topped $5 million, leading to the high average sales price. While sales slowed a bit from previous quarters, this market remains in demand and should continue to perform well in the coming quarters.
$4,874,282 16.1% vs Q1 2022 15% vs Q2 2021
$39M
SALES VOLUME
44.1% vs Q1 2022 38.7% vs Q2 2021 DAYS ON MARKET
<$1M | 1 $1M-$2M | 0 $2M-$3M | 1 $3M-$5M | 2 $5M+ | 4
14
157.6% vs Q1 2022 35.6% vs Q2 2021
50%
SALES BY SEGMENT
25% 13% 13%
85
UNITS SOLD
33.3% vs Q1 2022 46.7 vs Q2 2021
8
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$6M
140
$4.5M
105
$3M
70
$1.5M
35
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q1 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$72M
15
$54M
11
$36M
8
$18M
4
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $6M
$4.5M
$3M
$1.5M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
15
PAC I F I C G R OV E
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
P
acific Grove had a mixed quarter after seeing continued growth and record highs over the last several quarters. Average sales price and median sales price both dropped to 2021 levels after seeing record highs in Q1 of 2022. There were 44 homes sold in the quarter, higher than last quarter’s 30, but below all other post-COVID quarters. Inventory has been incredibly tight in PG with just 10 listings to start Q2. There was a spike of listings at the end of the quarter, bringing the total up to 31 to begin Q3. We believe this increase in inventory is a result of the traditional summer selling season as well as additional sellers looking to capitalize on the strong demand and higher prices the market is now demanding.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$800K | 3 $800K-$1.2M | 12 $1.2M-$2M | 20 $2M-$3M | 8 $3M+ | 1
16 18
45%
$1,522,709 10.6% vs Q1 2022 8.6% vs Q2 2021
$67M
SALES VOLUME
31.1% vs Q1 2022 22.9% vs Q2 2021
71.9% vs Q1 2022 59.1% vs Q2 2021
18% 27%
9
DAYS ON MARKET
2% 7%
UNITS SOLD
44
46.7% vs Q1 2022 29% vs Q2 2021
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Pacific Grove
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $1.8M
40
$1.3M
30
$900K
20
$450K
10
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$100M
70
$75M
53
$50M
35
$25M
18
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $1.8M
$1.3M
$900K
$450K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
17 19
MO N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y OA K S
Market Update
T
he Monterey area set another record for average sales price in Q2 at $1.3 million. Inventory of available homes has been low, contributing to fewer sales (70) in the quarter. This is the fewest sales in at least seven quarters and lower than the average pre-COVID quarters. We believe this is due to low inventory and all-time-high prices. These record high prices are making this typically affordable housing market more difficult to enter and contributing to sales growth in neighboring markets like Seaside and Marina.
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
5.9% vs Q1 2022 8% vs Q2 2021
<$800K | 18 $800K-$1.2M | 23 $1.2M-$2M | 18 $2M-$3M | 8 $3M+ | 3
18 16
33%
19.4% vs Q1 2022 30.6% vs Q2 2021 DAYS ON MARKET
28
21.7% vs Q1 2022 33.3% vs Q2 2021
11% 26%
$92M
SALES VOLUME
26% SALES BY SEGMENT
$1,313,948
4%
UNITS SOLD
70
23.9% vs Q1 2022 35.8% vs Q2 2021
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2022 MARKET REPORT
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price
35
$1.4M
28
$1.1M
21 $700K
14 $350K
7
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Average
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$140M
110
$105M
83
$70M
55
$35M
28
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $1.4M
$1.1M
$700K
$350K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
19 17
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s