Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Point, Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
2019 Market Report
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Letter from Courtney
2019 Market Report
Welcome To The New Decade!
T
his new year finds us not only looking back at the past year, but the past decade. And what a decade it was! In 2009 we were recovering from the biggest downturn since the Great Depression. But within just 5 years the market had already reached new heights. According to Wealth-X, in 2009 there were 174,000 people worldwide with a net worth of $30M or more.…By 2019, that number had jumped to 275,000. Between 2000-2009, Pebble Beach had 9 sales between $10-20M and Carmel had 2 sales between $10-15M. Compare that to 2010-2019 when Pebble’s luxury market soared to 26 sales over $10M and Carmel had 6. The peak years were 2014 and 2015 with Pebble’s highest sale at $31.250M and Carmel’s at $24M. It was a decade of growth and wealth. The luxury market continued to soar last year with 7 sales over $10M, all in Pebble Beach. The two largest deals of the year both closed at $24M. One on the 18th hole of the famed Pebble Beach golf course and the other a 1924 Spanish Mediterranean on almost 3 acres of prime oceanfront property. In 2019, sellers ended up with about 95% of their asking price. Marketing periods dropped to a low of 52 days in May to a high of 119 days during the winter doldrums of February.
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
After months of recession fears, experts are looking ahead with “guarded optimism”. Luxury home prices are expected to remain flat, or decline just slightly, this coming year. The word on the street is “stable” and if a recession does hit, it is expected to be short and mild. With that said, we will be watching US-China relations and expect a slow period around the November continued on page 4
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
My Current Listings
2019 Market Report
5463 Quail Meadows, Carmel ■ $4,395,000
5th 1 NW Lincoln, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ $2,340,000
59431 Garrapatos Road, Carmel ■ $2,250,000
370 El Caminito Road, Carmel Valley ■ $1,595,000
106 Calera Canyon Road, Corral De Tierra ■ $1,100,000
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
3
Letter from Courtney (continued)
2019 Market Report
election, which is typical. How the fire insurance industry handles the sadly typical California wildfire danger will also be on my radar. Higher premiums will continue and have already changed the way buyers look at property, now paying particular attention to vegetation clearance and safe roofing material. The market will be fickle. Well priced, clean homes will sell more quickly. Accurate pricing will be critical. It won’t necessarily be a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. After months of increased price reductions, we have a better balance then we’ve seen in some time. Neither buyers or sellers seem to be in a hurry. Buyers are showing a willingness to wait for the right house and the best deal. But coupled with limited inventory, seasoned buyers know when it is time to move.
Courtney Jones
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Recent Sale
27217 Prado Del Sol, Carmel ■ SP: $3,090,000 Represented Buyer
Recent Sale
1475 Manor, Monterey ■ SP: $3,150,000 Represented Buyer
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Table of Contents
2019 Market Report
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ���������������������������������������� 6 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������� 8 Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������10 Pebble Beach ������������������������������������������� 12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ���������������������������14
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
About Carmel-by-the-Sea
C
2019 Market Report
Average Selling Price
armel-by-the-Sea and Carmel Point performed quite well throughout 2019. While most of our other markets experienced more volatility in units sold and pricing quarter by quarter, Carmel was steady all year. The total number of sales went up 11% while the average sales price decreased by 7% and total sales volume increased 3%. There was particular strength in the number of transactions in the $1-2M range of the market but the rest of the price ranges also performed well.
2019 Sales by Segment
10% 5% 11% 29%
45%
<$1M | 15 1M-2M | 66 2M-3M | 43 3M-5M | 16 5M+ | 7
vs
Sales Volume
M
vs
Units Sold
Days on Market
vs
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
2019 Market Report
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.5M
100
$2M
75
$1.5M
50
$1M
25
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2015
2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$100M
40
$75M
30
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.75M
$2.25M
$50M
20
$25M
10
$1.75M
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Greater Carmel
2019 Market Report
About Greater Carmel
G
Average Selling Price
reater Carmel is considered neighborhoods of Carmel that fall outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea proper and Carmel Point. These neighborhoods experienced a slow start to the year. Poor weather and macroeconomic factors caused a major reduction in sales units and overall volume in the first several months of 2019. A strong second half made up significant ground in sales and volume. Final numbers show average sale price down 4%, unit sales down 14% and total volume oďŹ&#x20AC; year over year by 18%.
4%
42%
14%
vs
Sales Volume
M
2019 Sales by Segment
1%
vs
<$1M | 32 1M-2M | 30 2M-3M | 11 3M-5M | 3 5M+ | 1
Units Sold
vs
39% Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Greater Carmel
2019 Market Report
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $1.75M
90
$1.5M
67.5
$1.25M
45
$1M
22.5
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2015
2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$50M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$2M
20
$1.5M
10
$1M
$38M
$25M
$13M
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
9
Carmel Valley
2019 Market Report
About Carmel Valley
Average Selling Price
C
armel Valley had a very strong Q4. There was almost four times the sales volume in Q4 compared to Q1 of this year. The sales volume was only down 3% compared to the Carmel area being down by 18%. The average sales price is also up quarter over quarter bringing it to just over $1.3M for the year. The major support comes from the sales growth of homes under $2M.
vs
Sales Volume
M
2019 Sales by Segment
1% 6% 7%
54%
vs
<$1M | 108 1M-2M | 65 2M-3M | 13 3M-5M | 12 5M+ | 2
Units Sold
vs
33% Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Valley
2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$1.5M
100
$1.25M
75
$1M
50
$0.75M
25
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$100M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
80
$1.5M
64
$78M
$1.25M
48
$55M
$1M
32
$33M
$0.75M
16
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
11
Pebble Beach
2019 Market Report
About Pebble Beach
A
Average Selling Price
fter a slow start in Q1, Pebble Beach had a strong year in 2019. The purchase of second homes in Pebble Beach is mostly discretionary. With government shutdown, trade and stock market issues in Q1 buyers waited for things to settle down. Volume picked up after Q1 and total sales dollars in Q4 almost tripled Q1. Results were impacted by a strength at the high price points with 3 transactions over $20M for the year. These sales also helped drive average sale price up by 13% year over year.
vs
Sales Volume
M
2019 Sales by Segment
9% 6% 16%
49%
vs
<$1M | 11 $1M-2M | 60 $2M-3M | 25 $3M-5M | 19 $5M+ | 7
Units Sold
20% Days on Market
vs
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Pebble Beach
2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$3.2M
120
$2.65M
90
$2.1M
60
$1.55M
30
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$150M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$4.5M
40
$120M
$3.5M
30
$90M
$2.5M
20
$60M
$1.5M
10
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
13
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
About Carmel Highlands
T
2019 Market Report
Average Selling Price
he Big Sur, South Coast, Carmel Highlands market typically does not have enough transaction volume for data to be predictive. This year there were 9 sales in this area compared to 18 in 2018. Inclement weather and heavy rains increasingly impact sales in this region. The second half of the year was much more active than the first half. With a number of strong oceanfront and ocean view listings, we expect 2020 to be healthy year.
2019 Sales by Segment
11% 22%
67%
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 6 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 0 $5M+ | 1
vs
Sales Volume
M
vs
Units Sold
vs
Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$3.5M
260
$2.75M
195
$2M
130
$1.25M
65
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019
2015
2016
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$7M
$23M
6
$5.25M
$16M
4
$3.5M
$8M
2
$1.75M
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
2019
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
8
Q1
2018
Median Sale Price
$30M
$1M
2017
Q4
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com