three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, March 15, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 157
International bank warns against fast-rising US dollar
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW
Foreign exchange
n Previous week: The local currency followed a relatively sharp deceleration path in the previous week, falling from March 6’s 44.09 to a dollar, down to 44.21 to a dollar on Monday’s trading start. The peso further declined in value in the next days—at 44.27 to a dollar on Tuesday and 44.43 against the US currency on Wednesday. The peso then slightly corrected to hit 44.25 to a dollar on Thursday, and ended the week at 44.3 to a dollar on Friday, about 21 centavos weaker compared to the same day in the previous week. The total traded volume is at $3.16 billion from March 9 to 13, accelerating from the trading volume seen in the previous week at $2.28 billion. n Week ahead: The movements in the currency-trading market will still be largely influenced by external forces in the week ahead with a deceleration bias. Bank of the Philippine Islands Asset Management told its clients that excess liquidity from Europe may find its way to the Philippines as foreign investors look for higher returns. The players in the market are also seen to take cue from the federal meeting later this week.
Balance of payments (February 2015)
March 19, Thursday n Previous BOP: The country’s balance of payments (BOP)—or the summary of the Philippines’s transaction against the rest of the world—hit a surplus of $136 million in the first month of 2015. This is a steep reversal from the $4.48-billion deficit seen in the same month last year. The surplus was attributed to the strong tourism and business-process outsourcing receipts, as well as the country’s usual external stronghold—the overseas Filipino workers’ remittances. n February 2015 BOP: The country’s BOP in February is expected to sustain its surplus in the second month of the year, as early indicators— such as foreign portfolio investments and the trend of remittances—yield positive numbers. Earlier, BSP officials also reiterated that the country is on its way to meeting the $1-billion surplus expectation set for 2015. Also, in a separate news statement, ING Bank economist Joey Cuyegkeng said that the country’s low value of oil imports this year may push the Philippines’s currentaccount surplus to exceed by about $1 billion to 2 billion. The current account is one of the biggest components of the country’s BOP. Bianca Cuaresma
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By Bianca Cuaresma
HE fast-rising value of the US dollar against currencies in the Asian region may post a two-way risk for economies in Asia, an international banking giant warned over the weekend. Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC) said in its commentary on the region that the “fast climbing” dollar presents a growth problem in the current environment in Asia. Luckily for the Philippines, HSBC said the country is largely insulated from the risks of the dollar, owing to its strong dollar-reserve position “that proved to grow even stronger amid the turbulent conditions in the external front.” “The rising dollar, however, hurts in two ways. First, foreign investors holding local debt will ask for
T
he local partner of the two European firms that submitted a P4.64-billion unsolicited proposal to upgrade the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) Line 3 claims that its offer is superior than the other rehabilitation offers that the government has received so far. It is even better, Comm Builders and Technology Phils. Corp. (CB&T) President Roehl B. Bacar said, than the one the government is currently implementing. “We are the only company to present the most comprehensive proposal to upgrade the MRT,” he said in an interview. “Our proposal is also P100-million cheaper than the approved budget for contract of the government.” The proposal, which was submitted by Schunk Bahn- und Industrietechnik GmbH and HEAG Mobilo GmbH to the transportation department on February 25, seeks to place the whole train system under a massive transformation program to augment its capacity and to provide a safe and comfortable travel to commuters from the northern and southern
PESO exchange rates n US 44.2710
The paradox of America’s electoral reform
higher interest rates. Second, servicing of foreign-currency-denominated debt [mostly issued in dollars] becomes more costly. That’s not exactly what Asia needs right now…. Rather, in the current environment, the stronger dollar presents a growth problem. That’s it,” HSBC said. Amid the assessment, HSBC said that in some economies— such as the Philippines—foreignexchange reserves comfortably cover short-term external debt, citing the country’s improvement in recent years. See “Dollar,” A2
CB&T proposal ‘best offer’ yet to rehabilitate MRT 3 By Lorenz S. Marasigan
P25.00 nationwide | 7 sections 32 pages | 7 days a week
corridors of Metro Manila. The proposal calls for the complete overhaul of the 73 light-rail vehicles of the MRT; the replacement of the rails; the upgrading of the line’s ancillary system; the upgrade of the track circuit and signaling systems; the modernization of the conveyance system; and a three-year maintenance contract. All these amount to P4.67 billion, a little less than the P4.76-billion MRT modernization program that included the aforesaid components. “The problems and the solutions are outlined here in our proposal,” Bacar said, noting that one of the main issues that the train line is currently facing is the physical state of the rails. Transportation Secretary Joseph Emilio A. Abaya, Bacar added, is not too lukewarm to the proposal, quoting the Cabinet official as saying that his office will continue to welcome unsolicited proposal with caution. “He said during the congressional hearing that the department will study it,” Bacar said. His group, the company official said, is planning to remake the MRT Line 3, instead of simply improving the state of the line. Several components will be replaced with high-technology devices and Continued on A2
T
he United States presidential-election process matters to the world for two reasons. First, the world’s only global power will be increasingly self-absorbed, and the sitting president—already weakened by the opposition party controlling both houses of Congress— is increasingly limited in what he can do. This is disturbing in some ways, since all presidential elections contain visions of the apocalypse that will follow the election of an opponent. During the US election season, the world hears a litany of self-denigration and self-loathing that can be frightening emanating from a country that produces nearly a quarter of the world’s wealth each year and commands the world’s oceans. GlobalEye»C2
Oil is on its way down again; will gasoline prices follow? By Jonathan Fahey The Associated Press
N
EW YORK—The price of oil is tumbling again, rattling an already-shaken oil industry and heralding lower prices for consumers. The price of oil fell 10 percent this week, approaching its lowest price in six years. Many expect it to fall further in the coming weeks, because supplies are rising and the summer driving season is still months away. The lower crude prices will mean gasoline prices will slide lower in the coming weeks, and many drivers will likely pay under $2 a gallon in the summertime for the first time since 2004. See “Oil,” A2
Fuel prices over the years National and Mississippi average unleaded gas price per gallon.
2015 average National: $2.16
$4.0 3.0
2000 average National: $1.50
2.0 1.0
Mississippi: $2.00 Mississippi: $1.45 ’00
’02
’04
’06
’08
’10
’12
’14 ’15
Source: Automobile Club of Southern California Graphic: Ashley Dunn, Kyle Kim, Los Angeles Times/TNS
n japan 0.3651 n UK 65.9594 n HK 5.7001 n CHINA 7.0693 n singapore 32.0549 n australia 34.1334 n EU 47.0955 n SAUDI arabia 11.8043 Source: BSP (13 March 2015)