Peso seen at ₧60:US$1 by Q1’s end T
HE Philippine peso is likely to weaken to P60 per dollar by the end of the first quarter of 2026, as slowing economic growth and weak investor confidence outweigh support from easing inflation and steady remittance inflows, according to ANZ Research. In its Asia Economic Outlook Q1 2026, ANZ Research economist Arindam Chakraborty said depreciation pressures will rise as the remittance season comes to an end, as underlying fundamentals remained “unfavorable.” The peso has weakened past P59 per US dollar in October due to a weak growth outlook and de-
WORLD » A6
RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE KILLS 8 IN ODESA AS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONVENES PEACE TALKS IN FLORIDA
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teriorating investor sentiment, Chakraborty noted, and failed to register notable gains during the peak remittance season this year. While a gradual recovery is seen over the remainder of 2026, “prolonged economic weakness and a deeper-than-expected BSP rate-cut cycle represent key downside risks to the PHP’s trajectory,” Chakraborty said. Although the current account deficit is also projected to narrow in 2026, Chakraborty said it will continue to exert a “significant drag” on the local currency. ANZ attributed the peso’s vulnerability largely to a dimming growth outlook, as it forecasts
the country’s economic growth to slow to 5.0 percent in 2026—below the government’s 6 to 7 percent medium-term target. “The slowdown in domestic investment will keep new employment and wage growth subdued,” Chakraborty said. “Moreover, with household savings low, stagnating income growth will constrain consumption in the coming quarters.” With weak domestic demand, along with stable global commodity prices, inflationary pressures will be contained, Chakraborty added. As such, ANZ Research revised its 2026 inflation forecast lower to
2.4 percent from 3.0 percent. Despite inflation remaining subdued, Chakraborty said the real policy rate remains elevated. Citing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), growth headwinds stemming from governance issues in public infrastructure projects are the main reasons for the continued easing. ANZ Research expects the BSP to deliver one additional 25-basispoint rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, as economic momentum is likely to remain weak at least until the second half of next year. The BSP has signaled that the monetary easing cycle is nearing See “Peso,” A2
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END TO SURPLUS: NOV BOP POSTS $225-M GAP www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Monday, December 22, 2025 Vol. 21 No. 75
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
HE Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) returned to deficit territory in November as it registered a $225-million shortfall, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Latest data from the BSP showed the country’s BOP posted a deficit of $225 million in November 2025, breaking its threemonth surplus streak. The deficit, however, was narrower than the $2.276-billion gap recorded in November last year. For the January to November 2025 period, the BOP stood at an overall deficit of $4.834 billion, also a reversal from the $2.117 billion surplus logged in the same period a year ago. The BOP accounts for the trans-
actions of the country with the rest of the world. According to John Paolo R. Rivera, senior research fellow at state-run Philippine Institute for Development Studies, the November BOP deficit reflects seasonal pressures and volatile capital flows, including stronger pre-holiday import demand, debt service payments and portfolio outflows amid global uncertainty and peso sensitivity to interest rate differentials. See “BOP,” A2
ASEAN LEADERSHIP WILL SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH–FFCCCII By Andrea E. San Juan
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@andreasanjuan
HE year 2026 can spell “accelerated” economic expansion driven by a multiplier effect from the country’s Asean leadership, according to the Federation of Filipino Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (FFCCCII). In a statement on Sunday, the group of Filipino-Chinese entrepreneurs said the Philippines’ assumption of the Asean Chairmanship is an “epochal opportunity to elevate our nation’s strategic and economic profile
on the world stage.” It added: “We project that 2026 can be a year of accelerated economic expansion, driven by a multiplier effect from our ASEAN leadership.” According to FFCCCII, the country’s chairmanship must be leveraged as a “non-replicable” platform to enhance investor perception, boost tourism and export footprints, and demonstrate governance and integration readiness. In enhancing investor perception, the business group said there is a need to “systematically” showSee “Growth,” A2
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RED, GREEN—AND GRIDLOCK The dominant colors of Christmas fill Baclaran, Parañaque City, as shoppers from all walks of life crowd the area in search of bargain-priced gifts for loved ones. The festive reds and greens of the season contrast sharply with the heavy traffic that slows motorists, reflecting the surge in holiday spending and foot traffic as consumers stretch budgets amid rising prices. NONIE REYES
Sans Osapiea, Go keeps investments task By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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@reine_alberto
EWLY-APPOINTED Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go will continue to serve as the government’s steward of investments to continue investment promotion, even as the Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs (Osapiea) will be dissolved. In a press chat on Thursday, Go said the government will build on the gains made over the past three years, and that investment momentum will be sustained through coordination between the Department of Finance (DOF) and the Office of the President. “In my capacity as DOF Secretary,
I will continue to help coordinate and support the investment promotion activity of the government. I will still be there helping to tie all of this together,” Go told reporters. As the new Finance secretary, Go said he will remain involved in vetting and engaging global investors for meetings to translate into concrete investment commitments for the Philippines. Go added that key reforms, including the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Law, Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy Law, Accelerated and Reformed Rightof-Way Law, Land Lease for Foreign Investors Act and the Philippine Mining Fiscal Regime Act, must
also be pushed further. While the Osapiea has been dissolved following Go’s move to the DOF, he said that of his previous 20-member team, around 10 staff members will remain in the Office of the President to help coordinate and facilitate investments. This comes at a time when the country’s investment climate has been challenged by governance concerns, which have also slowed capital formation and affected investor sentiment. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that rising tariffs weighing on exports and investments will slow the Philippines’ economic growth in 2025, before rebounding in 2026. “Directors underscored the
need to continue prioritizing governance reforms, greater private investment, economic diversification, and resilience to climate shocks to sustain inclusive growth,” IMF said. Low investor confidence and lingering global uncertainty also impacted foreign direct investments into the Philippines, as this fell to $320 million—the weakest since April 2020 or during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic—in September 2025. On trade negotiations, Go said the Department of Trade and Industry will now take the lead, but noted that the DOF will remain actively involved, especially since taxes and tariffs account for a large See “Investments,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.6050 n JAPAN 0.3768 n UK 78.4428 n HK 7.5321 n CHINA 8.3231 n SINGAPORE 45.4584 n AUSTRALIA 38.7438 n EU 68.7026 n KOREA 0.0397 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.6255 Source: BSP (December 19, 2025)