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Saturday-Sunday, December 27-28, 2025 Vol. 21 No. 78
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PHL BOP DEFICITS TO HIT $6.2B IN ’25, $5.9B IN ’26 By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
P
ERSISTENT trade-in-goods gap and weaker services receipts will push the Philippines’ balance of payments into deficits in 2025 and 2026, reversing last year’s surplus, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Balance of Payments Outlook (2024–2026)
FROM SURPLUS TO DEFICIT +$609M
2024
–$6.2B
–$5.9B
2025
2026 BM Graphics: Ed Davad / Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
straints such as logistical bottlenecks, skills mismatches and high input costs continue to weigh on export competitiveness, according to the BSP. Services export growth is also seen to be moderating due to rising operating costs in key sectors. The BSP said the business process outsourcing industry faces higher expenses from rents, utilities and wages, while tourism is being weighed down by higher prices of meals and accommodation. Lingering cautious investor sentiment and heightened global financial volatility will continuously drag down foreign direct investment inflows, which are also projected to ease from 2024 levels. Still, the BSP said modest gains could materialize over the See “Deficits,” A2
In 2025, more than twice as many oil price hikes as rollbacks: data Gasoline
Diesel
n 36 hikes n 15 rollbacks Net: +P20.05/L
n 31 hikes n 28 hikes n 18 rollbacks n 21 rollbacks Net: +P20.25/L Net: +P4.95/L
Kerosene
BM Graphics: Ed Davad / Source: DOE • Illustration by Skypixel via Dreamstime
By Lenie Lectura
T
HERE were more oil price increases than rollbacks this year, resulting in a significant net increase in pump prices. Oil firms adjust their prices weekly to reflect movements in the world oil market. The adjustments, according to the Department of Energy (DOE), were influenced by global supply concerns, demand forecasts, and geopolitical events.
From January 2025 to December 23, 2025, gasoline prices rose 36 times as against 15 price rollbacks. This led to a total increase of P32.35 per liter versus a decrease of only P11.85 per liter. Diesel prices went up 31 times for a total of P37.55 a liter as against 18 times for a total reduction of P17.30 Kerosene prices went up 28 times for a total of P27.7 per liter.
FROM FARM TO FORTUNE With New Year’s Day just around the corner, fruit vendors at the Baguio City Market work at full pace, sorting, weighing, and restocking fresh produce as shoppers begin their annual ritual of buying fruits for the media noche table. Many Filipinos traditionally welcome the New Year with an abundance of fruits—often in round shapes—symbolizing prosperity, good fortune, and a fresh start. Sourced directly from nearby farms in Benguet and neighboring provinces, the colorful displays signal both brisk trade and rising demand as households prepare to usher in 2026 on a hopeful note. MAU VICTA
FROM CAGAYAN TO SILICON VALLEY
Dado Banatao, Pinoy tech visionary, 79 By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
D
IOSDADO “DADO” BANATAO, the Filipino mind behind some of modern computing’s most pivotal breakthroughs, left an indelible mark on Silicon Valley. An engineer whose vision helped shape the personal computer, Banatao’s name became synonymous with semiconductor innovation. He passed away on December 25 at 79, just five months short of his 80th birthday, after battling complications from a late-life neurological disorder. Even in his absence, Banatao’s legacy endures. He was behind landmark developments such as the first 10-Mbit Ethernet CMOS chip, system logic chipsets for IBM’s PC-XT and PC-AT, the first graphics accelerator chip, and the pioneering local bus architecture. Beyond invention, he
IMF sees BSP dealing total 50 bps rate cut in Q1
F co-founded influential firms including Mostron, Chips & Technologies, and S3 Graphics. Later, through Tallwood Venture Capital, he nurtured startups and mentored a new generation of engineers who continue to push technology’s boundaries.
Small beginnings
IN the streets of Iguig, Cagayan, Dado was a barefoot boy who threaded his way to school each morning, clutching a notebook that See “Banatao,” A2
AVORABLE inflation conditions and rising downside risks to economic growth would warrant a further reduction by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) of the key policy rate by a total of 50 basis points in the first quarter of 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its latest country report following the 2025 Article IV consultations, the IMF said inflation is seen to return to the midpoint of the BSP’s target band in 2026, while an emerging negative output gap in 2025 would justify the BSP’s cutting interest rates. “Policy will need to remain guided by the impact of the new incoming data on the inflation outlook amidst prevailing uncertainties around the output gap and the natural rate and two-sided risks to inflation,” the IMF said. Philippine authorities have said there is room for a “more See “IMF,” A2
50
BUMBLEEDEE | DREAMSTIME.COM
Based on BSP’s estimates, the country’s BOP is seen posting deficits of $6.2 billion in 2025 and $5.9 billion in 2026, in contrast to the $609- million surplus recorded in 2024. “Foreign direct investments and external loans have also moderated amid lingering global policy uncertainty,” the BSP said in a statement on Friday. The BOP measures the country’s economic and financial transactions with the rest of the world. Merchandise trade is expected to stay soft due to weaker global demand, lower commodity prices and slower domestic growth. While frontloading in anticipation of the US tariffs in the first half of the year has helped provide a temporary boost to merchandise exports in 2025, structural con-
BASIS POINTS
The total policy rate reduction recommended by the IMF for the first quarter of 2026, given favorable inflation conditions and rising downside risks to economic growth.
Trade deficit narrows despite higher November trade flows By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
T
HE country posted a smaller trade deficit in November 2025 even as the total value of goods traded with the rest of the world increased, according to the latest government data. The Philippine Statistics
Authority (PSA) reported that the country’s balance of trade in goods stood at a deficit of $3.51 billion in November, narrower by 28.8 percent from the same month last year. This followed a similar trend in October, when the trade gap declined by 27.9 percent year on year, reversing the expansion re-
corded in November last year. The total external trade in goods reached $17.33 billion in November, up 6.1 percent from $16.33 billion a year earlier. Imports accounted for 60.1 percent of total trade, while exports made up the remaining 39.9 percent. Export receipts climbed to See “Trade,” A2
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), on trade deficit trend: “The country posted a smaller trade deficit in November 2025 even as the total value of goods traded with the rest of the world increased.”
Continued on A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.7520 n JAPAN 0.3771 n UK 79.4562 n HK 7.5566 n CHINA 8.3862 n SINGAPORE 45.8177 n AUSTRALIA 39.3756 n EU 69.2099 n KOREA 0.0407 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.6651 Source: BSP (December 26, 2025)