BusinessMirror July 11, 2020

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ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS

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A GATHERING STORM www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Saturday, July 11, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 275

P25.00 nationwide | 12 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK

SKYPIXEL/ DREAMSTIME.COM

Covid-19 upends the world order, but in the midst of so much upheaval and the debris of lost lives and dreams, the scary thing is, we don’t even know yet how the storm the pandemic unleashed will look like when it’s done its worst.

By Alan Crawford | Bloomberg

I

N July 1945, at the close of World War II, the leaders of the US, Great Britain and the Soviet Union gathered at a Prussian royal palace in Potsdam outside the conquered German capital to hammer out the new global order. The seeds were sown for the Cold War.

As visitors in face masks ponder the consequences of those decisions at a new exhibition to mark the 75th anniversary of the conference, the geopolitical map of the world is again being redrawn. This time, it’s a result of the coronavirus, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel has described as the biggest challenge of the postwar era. Half-way into a year dominated by the pandemic, governments are confronting a health crisis, an economic crisis and a crisis of institutional legitimacy, all at a time of heightening geopolitical rivalry.

How those tectonic shifts crystallize over the next six months will go a long way to determining the post-virus era. Trends that were already discernible pre-Covid-19 have intensified and accelerated. As a fast rising power, China is growing more assertive and jostling with countries from Canada to Australia. The US, the one superpower that has remained at the top table since Potsdam, is increasingly selfabsorbed as the virus rips through its population and economy ahead of November’s presidential “A lot of structural problems in

the international order are becoming much more glaringly apparent,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University. With a convergence of multiple pressure points, from failures of leadership to a lack of trust in the veracity of information, “it does add up to a kind of perfect storm,” he said. “The big test is really whether we can get through let’s say the next six to 18 months without these crises coming to a head.” In Potsdam, the key dynamic was the ideological struggle be-

tween the Communist and Capitalist systems as espoused by Moscow and Washington. The Soviet Union under Josef Stalin had emerged from the war as a superpower, while American President Harry Truman demonstrated US technological and military superiority by issuing the order from the conference to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Today’s standoff between the US under Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s China was compared to the “foothills” of a new Cold War by former Secretary of State Henry Continued on A2

PHL’s banner fruit export is slowly but surely losing its global market foothold By Manuel T. Cayon & Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas

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AVAO CITY—Home-grown bananas, the country’s banner agricultural export crop, may be progressively losing their share in the world market due to a range of issues ranging from high tariffs, plant infections, rising competition and an aggressive, government-subsidized foray by Latin American producers into traditional Philippine markets. For one, banana exporters have sounded the alarm over the looming threat of a shrinking share in the Chinese market due to rising competition with Asian neighbors like Vietnam and Cambodia, which have also started to “pirate” local industry experts to develop their plantations. At a recent virtual briefing, the Pilipino Banana Growers and Exporters Association (PBGEA) chair-

man Alberto Paterno F. Bacani said the rise in banana exports from Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to China is one of the “biggest threats” to the country’s top banana market. Bacani explained that these three countries, which are close to China, enjoy logistical advantages as they can transport banana shipments via land through trucks. They also have vast idle tracts of fields compared to the Philippines.

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 49.4440

SLIPPING, SLIPPING

Worse, Bacani disclosed that they discovered that Chinese banana companies in Vietnam and Cambodia were already “pirating” Filipino banana experts to develop their produce with high incentives such as better pay.

Losing export market share

THE Philippine Cavendish banana, according to Bacani, is gradually being eased out from the traditional market it used to monopolize, and may have lost as much as 65 percent of its original export market share within the last decade and falling. This could be seen in the primary market of Japan and South Korea and in China, and also the Gulf states, he said. In Iran, the Philippines now accounts for 70 percent of the banana supply. But previously, it was the only supplier of banana, especially in the heyday of 2009 and 2010, when the Philippines exported 40 million boxes there. This changed a few years after the United States imposed trade sanctions on the Middle Eastern country. Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4612 n UK 62.3439 n HK 6.3798 n CHINA 7.0711 n SINGAPORE 35.5150 n AUSTRALIA 34.4081 n EU 55.7976 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.1833

Source: BSP (July 10, 2020)


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