BusinessMirror January 07, 2026

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Beyond Feb, rate cuts to be limited–BSP

THIS image taken from video shows Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro getting off a helicopter on his way to Manhattan Federal Court, Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, in New York.

By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto

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DEFIANT MADURO SAYS ‘I WAS CAPTURED’ AS HE PLEADS NOT GUILTY TO DRUG TRAFFICKING CHARGES

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HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) could still reduce the key policy rate in February, but any further rate cuts beyond that are likely to be limited and would require a sharp slowdown in economic growth, according to its governor. In a forum on Tuesday, BSP Governor and Chairman of the Monetary Board Eli M. Remolona Jr. said the central bank is “very close” to its desired policy rate. “There’s a chance that we may cut some more. But there’s also a chance that we may not move at all,” Remolona said, adding that it

is “unthinkable” to hike the policy rate at this point. “Given the data we have right now and given the projections based on our data, we’re not going to cut. So the numbers have to move somewhat for us to convince to cut one more time,” the governor added. This comes after the December 2025 inflation rate quickened to 1.8 percent from 1.5 percent in November 2025, while average headline inflation for the full year was at 1.7 percent—both still within the government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent. Higher food prices, particularly for vegetables, corn, fish and other seafood, drove most of the

increase in headline inflation, fueled by weather disruptions, lower imports, the closed fishing season and seasonal holiday demand. “The Monetary Board views the monetary policy easing cycle as nearing its end. Any further easing is likely to be limited and guided by incoming data,” the BSP said in a separate statement on Tuesday. When asked about the probability of a rate cut in February, during the Monetary Board’s first meeting this year, Remolona said it is “still on the table.” But if the economy grows below 5 percent in 2026, Remolona said there could be grounds for one more rate cut beyond the 25 basis

points that is currently priced in. Remolona said the economy grew 4.6 percent in 2025, below the government’s 5.5–6.5 percent target range, due to the impact of the flood control scandal on investors’ confidence and public consumption. “When you realize that your taxes are not really going into infrastructure spending, it’s painful. It doesn’t just feel like you’re paying more in taxes; it’s more painful when you know it’s going to the wrong guys,” he added. Looking ahead, the BSP projects economic growth of 5.4 percent in 2026 and 6.2 percent in 2027, with Remolona noting these are “not as See “Rate cuts,” A2

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DBM tells agencies to prepare for ’27 budgets

By Andrea E. San Juan @andreasanjuan

HE country’s former chief economist warned that a stronger dollar, owing to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, will hurt government efforts to tame inflation. “Moving forward, the country’s inflation rate will be affected by the current political disturbance, namely, the order of Trump to invade Venezuela and take out its president,” former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante B. Canlas told the BusinessMirror in a Viber message on Tuesday. “What will be the effect on the peso-USD exchange rate? If the USD strengthens in the long run, that’s bad news for the peso. And if Philippine imports surge, inflation will rise through the exchange-rate pass through,” Can-

las also told this paper. Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., meanwhile, shared almost the same sentiment with the former chief economist as he divulged the upside risks to inflation for this year. Despite posting a 1.7-percent full-year inflation rate in 2025— the lowest since 2016, Ravelas told this newspaper that the Philippines should watch out for “Geopolitics, supply chain disruptions and climate hazards.”

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See “Inflation,” A2

GROWTH ALONE WON’T LIFT PHL TO UMIC–PIDS STUDY By Bless Aubrey Ogerio

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HE country’s push toward uppermiddle-income status will hinge on more than steady economic growth, with governance and structural reforms emerging as key constraints, according to a new study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). In a discussion paper, the government think tank said the economy is likely to keep expanding through 2026, but cautioned that mounting global and domestic risks could slow progress as the country nears the uppermiddle income threshold. “A stronger, more predictable governance environment is not merely desirable; it is indispensable for an economy aiming to transition into a high productivity, innovation-driven, and inclusive society,” the authors stressed. Government data showed that growth eased to 5.4 percent in the first half of 2025, as investment activity softened amid lingering uncertainty in global trade. The study, meanwhile, projects economic growth at 5 percent in 2025, inching up to 5.3 percent in 2026, supported by household spending, infrastructure programs and continued growth in the services sector. Further, recent economic indicators reflect both gains and vulnerabilities. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed inflation accelerated to 1.8 percent in December 2025, up from 1.5 percent in November, though still slower than the 2.9 percent re-

corded in December 2024. On the other hand, labor conditions have improved, with the October Labor Force Survey showing the labor force rose to 51.16 million, which is an increase of 1.04 million from a year earlier and 2.52 million from July 2025. Externally, PIDS flagged several risks that could disrupt growth, including possible tariff hikes by the United States, supply-chain shifts linked to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and heightened geopolitical tensions. The peso’s weakness toward the end of 2025, trading near P58 to P59 per dollar, has also added uncertainty for firms and investors, the study said. “The Philippines continues to rely heavily on imports, resulting in a persistent trade deficit,” PIDS said. PSA figures showed the trade deficit in goods stood at $3.51 billion in November, narrowing by 28.8 percent from the same month last year. Beyond economic indicators, the study placed strong emphasis on governance reforms, warning that weak institutions could undermine long-term growth prospects. According to the authors, delays in addressing corruption and regulatory inefficiencies could erode investor confidence and limit productivity gains. “The immediate policy priority must be to penalize corrupt officials and their accomplices swiftly, visibly, and without exception,” the paper said, adding that stalled reforms carry costs in competitiveness and long-term development opportunities.

HIGH RISES, LOWER FORECASTS High-rise silhouettes tower over tightly packed residential communities and an elevated highway along

C-3 Road in Caloocan City on Tuesday, January 6, 2026, reflecting the tension between rapid urban build-up and a cooling economic outlook. Economic managers have scaled back the country’s 2026 growth target to 5 to 6 percent from 6 to 7 percent, citing slower global and domestic conditions. Economic growth eased to 4 percent in the third quarter of 2025, though officials are banking on a stronger rebound in the second half of 2026. NONOY LACZA

HE Department of Budget and Management (DBM) has commenced the preparation of the P7.232 trillion national budget for 2027, instructing government agencies to start preparing their budget proposals. Acting Secretary Rolando U. Toledo issued the 2027 budget call through National Budget Memorandum No. 156, which contains the budget priorities, as well as the guidelines, procedures and prescribed forms in crafting budget proposals. Next year’s budget is proposed at a record high of P7.232 trillion, higher by 6.46 percent than this year’s P6.793-trillion expenditure program. This represents the approved ceiling on the obligations that could be incurred by the government in a given budget year and is supported by estimated financial resources. Agencies are expected to align their budget proposals with the objectives of achieving aggregate fiscal discipline, allocative efficiency and operational efficiency, as the 2027 national budget aims to enhance service delivery, promote fiscal sustainability and accelerate inclusive and sustainable national growth. “Given the limited available fiscal space, agency budget proposals will be carefully evaluated in terms of value for money, performance metrics and alignment with the government’s fiscal consolidation strategy,” the budget call stated. According to the DBM, the key review factor will be the agency’s performance in implementing funded programs and projects and its corresponding budget utilization. Only those agency proposals that clearly demonstrate implementation-readiness and strong absorptive capacity will be included in the 2027 proposed national budget, consistent with the adoption of the Cash Budgeting System. Agencies were likewise instructed to strengthen digitalization efforts by investing in information and See “DBM,” A2

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.9640 n JAPAN 0.3771 n UK 79.8432 n HK 7.5739 n CHINA 8.4396 n SINGAPORE 45.9794 n AUSTRALIA 39.5825 n EU 69.1235 n KOREA 0.0408 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7262 Source: BSP (January 6, 2026)


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