three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, February 22, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 136
P25.00 nationwide | 6 sections 28 pages | 7 days a week
BSP seen to hold rates up to Q3 T By Bianca Cuaresma
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW Foreign currency
n Previous week: The local currency remained relatively tame during the week, trading only sideways in the entire four-day trading week. The peso appreciated at the start of the week at 44.24 to a dollar on Monday, from the previous week’s close of 44.285 to a dollar. The peso then very slightly moved to depreciate to 44.245 against the US dollar on Tuesday, before correcting to 44.235 to a dollar on Wednesday. The peso ended the week back to 44.24 to a dollar, after the trading holiday on Thursday due to the celebration of the Chinese New Year. The total traded volume during the week is at $2.15 billion. n Week ahead: Traders see the local currency trading within the lower band of the 44 territory, particularly within the 44-to-44.4 band, as markets look for international and local leads in economic movement.
Domestic liquidity growth (January 2015)
February 27, Friday n December 2014 M3: The money supply circulating in the local economy sustained its single-digit growth at the end of 2014. Domestic liquidity in the country—as broadly measured by M3—grew by 9.6 percent in end-December 2014, slightly faster than the revised 9.2-percent expansion recorded in November last year. The central bank said the country’s money supply, which hit P7.6 trillion in absolute terms during the period, continued to increase due largely to the sustained demand for credit. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. earlier said that the slower M3 growth in the last month of 2014 compared to the earlier months was because the tightening measures put in place by the Monetary Board in mid-2014 are still continuing to work their way to the system. He further said that the high base effects from the previous year were also at play. n January 2015 M3: In a discussion with the BusinessMirror earlier, BSP Deputy Governor for the Monetary Stability Sector Diwa C. Guinigundo hinted that the growth of cash circulating in the economy—as broadly measured by M3—was tamer in January compared to the single-digit growth seen in the last two months of last year. Despite the foreseen deceleration of M3 growth, Guinigundo said the current volume of liquidity in the country will still be enough to fuel the needs of the economy, which targets a growth rate of 7 percent to 8 percent in the next years. Bianca Cuaresma
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely hold rates until the third quarter of the year to support not only growth but, likewise, the local currency’s value against the US dollar, an economist from an international bank said.
ING Bank Manila senior economist Joey Cuyegkeng noted that the BSP will likely maintain a comfortable interest-rate differential to moderate a possible peso volatility during the year. Earlier, central bank officials said that, while the country has strong fundamentals to support the local currency, external developments, such as the unexpected, or unorderly, normalization of the US’s monetary policy, may cause investors to flock to safe-haven markets and, in turn, cause the peso to experience some uncertainties.
finally! Pacquiao and Mayweather to fight on May 2
As such, Cuyegkeng said an initial forecast of 50-basis-point rate hike during the year, starting in late September 2015—or the sixth monetary policy meeting for the year. The peso has behaved in a relatively tame way in the early weeks of this year amid developments abroad, such as the guidance from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed); the change in monetary-policy directions of neighboring countries; the significant collapse of oil prices; and the divergence of growth rates in advanced economies. See “BSP,” A2
Another big reason to think oil prices aren’t going up soon
O
il just had its first weekly decline in a month, breaking a rally in crude prices. A bit of context: After what’s happened over the last year, “rally” seems a bit of an overstatement. One big factor that may be driving prices down this week: The US is pumping so much oil, it’s running out of places to stash it. Crude oil in storage in the US has jumped to the highest levels in at least 80 years, according to a Bloomberg Industries analysis. The Energy Information Administration this week reported that US inventories rose 7.7 million barrels to 425.6 million. That’s more than 20 percent higher than the five-year average. The buildup of supply has been “colossal,” and is responsible for oil prices falling this week, Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group Llc., told Bloomberg News. Winter weather and refinery outages have contributed to the supply glut. Even when those conditions subside, topped-out inventories and continued production growth may continue to suppress oil prices for the near and medium term, according to Bloomberg Industries. Meanwhile, the US is pumping oil at a faster pace than any time since 1972. Bloomberg
Transport systems lined up to ease traffic congestion By Lorenz S. Marasigan
T
HE steady pace of economic growth has led to monstrous congestion on major arteries in Metro Manila—cutting off productivity by almost a third—and the only way to move forward is a change of preference, a Cabinet official said.
PESO exchange rates n US 44.2360
Signs that the rapid economic expansion has been trickling down to certain sectors of the developing nation in Southeast Asia are prevalent, Transportation Secretary Joseph Emilio A. Abaya said, citing the increased spending power of Filipinos based on car ownership. This, he said, added to the congestion on major roads in Manila and its nearby cities. “For a megacity like Manila, the clear consequence of a growing See “Transport,” A2
L
AS VEGAS—The Fight is finally on. Floyd Mayweather Jr. will meet Manny Pacquiao on May 2 in a welterweight showdown that will be boxing’s richest fight ever. Mayweather himself announced the bout on Friday, after months of negotiations, posting a picture of the signed contract online. “I promised the fans we would get this done, and we did,” Mayweather said. Sports»D1
The long-anticipated bout at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas will almost surely break every financial record, and make both boxers richer than ever. Mayweather could earn $120 million or more, while Pacquiao’s split of the purse will likely be around $80 million. The fight, which matches boxing’s two biggest attractions of recent years, has been in the making for five years. It finally came together in recent months, with both fighters
putting aside past differences over various issues—including drug testing and television rights—to reach agreement. Pacquiao was sleeping in the Philippines when the fight was announced, but his camp issued a statement saying that the fans deserve the long-awaited fight. “It is an honor to be part of this historic event,” Pacquiao said. “I dedicate this fight to all the fans who willed this fight to happen and, as always, to bring glory to the Philippines and my fel-
low Filipinos around the world.” While the fight rivals the 2002 heavyweight title bout between Lennox Lewis and Mike Tyson for interest, it comes more than five years after the first real effort to put the fighters together in their prime. Most boxing observers believe both have lost some of their skills, though Mayweather remains a master defensive fighter and Pacquiao showed in his last fight against Chris Algieri See “Finally!,” A8
n japan 0.3719 n UK 68.1809 n HK 5.7018 n CHINA 7.0794 n singapore 32.5696 n australia 34.4517 n EU 50.2831 n SAUDI arabia 11.7925 Source: BSP (19 February 2015)