BusinessMirror August 27, 2020

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PHL debt seen topping ₧10 trillion T

HE government expects the country’s outstanding debt to top the P10-trillion mark by year-end and balloon to nearly P12 trillion by 2021. According to the latest Budget Expenditures and Sources of Financing, the government sees this year’s debt stock reaching P10.16 trillion and P11.98 trillion next year. Should the projections hold true, the debt stock for this year would soar 31.42 percent from P7.73 trillion as of end-2019. On the other hand, the 2021 outstanding debt would post a 17.93-percent uptick from P10.16 trillion this year. The bulk of the outstanding debt

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DEBT BURDEN: HOW LONG CAN THE PHL CARRY THAT WEIGHT?

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for this year and next year would come from domestic sources, while the rest would come from foreign ones. Gross domestic borrowings this year will amount to P2.218 trillion from only P693.843 billion last year. For 2021, this is even programmed to rise to P2.583 trillion. Of the gross domestic borrowings this year, P48 billion is programmed to be raised through the issuance of Treasury bills, while P1.67 trillion will come from fixed-rate Treasury bonds. Besides the usual issuance of debt papers, another source of domestic debt is short-term borrowing from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

(BSP), wherein the government programmed to borrow a total of P500 billion this year. In June, the BSP has approved to extend the repurchase agreement or repo with the Bureau of the Treasury that it entered into in March, amounting to P300 billion. While the BSP has earlier said it could provide another P240 billion to the national government by buying government securities from the Bureau of the Treasury, National Treasurer Rosalia V. De Leon told reporters they are “still assessing if needed.” On the other hand, gross external borrowings are projected to reach

P785.613 billion this year and decline to P442.363 billion next year. In 2019 gross foreign borrowings amounted to P321.947 billion. Asked whether the Treasury plans to issue panda and samurai bonds soon, De Leon said they are still “monitoring markets.” The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee is now seeing much higher debt-toGDP ratio of 53.91 percent for this year and 58.28 percent next year. For 2022, it expects to see a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60.04 percent. In 2019 the country posted a record-low debt-to-GDP ratio of 39.6 percent. Bernadette D. Nicolas

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7-MO DEFICIT UP 6-FOLD TO P701B AMID COVID-19 www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Thursday, August 27, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 322

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POLICE Executive Master Sergeant Leo Aguila-Dalisay preaches the gospel as parents and guardians of elementary and secondary-school students wait to receive P3,000 in financial assistance from the government at the Marcela Marcelo Elementary School in Pasay City. NONIE REYES

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By Bernadette D. Nicolas

HE national government’s budget deficit as of end-July surged to P700.6 billion, almost six times the budget gap in the same period last year as the government ramps up spending for Covid-19 pandemic response amid a drop in revenues. The current budget shortfall has already breached the record annual deficit in 2019 of P660.2 billion and exceeded the P117.9-

billion budget deficit as of end-July last year. The deficit swelled as government expenditures outpaced state

revenues for the seven-month period. Cumulative spending as of end-July this year jumped by 23.78 percent to P2.388 trillion from P1.93 trillion in the comparative period in 2019. On the other hand, state revenues dipped by 6.84 percent to P1.688 trillion as of end-July from last year’s P1.812 trillion.

July shortfall 86% higher

FOR July alone, the government’s budget shortfall reached P140.2 billion, up by 86.21 percent from only P75.3 billion in the same month a year ago. The Bureau of the Treasury said this resulted from the 10.40-percent growth in government expenditures due to the im-

plementation of various Covid-19 rehabilitation and recovery measures amid an 11.22-percent drop in revenue collection. Government spending for July grew to P374.7 billion from P339.4 billion in July 2019. The increase in disbursements for July was driven by the secondtranche releases for the Social Amelioration Program under the Bayanihan to Heal As One Act and other Covid-related expenses. Meanwhile, revenues dropped to P234.5 billion in the same period from P264.1 billion last year. Tax and nontax revenues for the month fell by 10.36 percent and 18.69 percent, respectively.

FINTECH EASES CASH SUBSIDY DISTRIBUTION IN PANDEMIC, SAYS U.N.

See “Deficit,” A2

See “Fintech,” A2

By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad

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INANCIAL technology (fintech) has been helpful in delivering government cash subsidies to households as the economy grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, the United Nations said. Achim Steiner, co-chairman of the Task Force on Digital Financing of the Sustainable Development Goals, said in a media briefing on Tuesday evening that digital platforms and fintech made it quicker for the governments to provide cash aid to the “poorest of the community.”

Virus spurs migration from cities By Cai U. Ordinario

T

HE Covid-19 pandemic could spur a temporary migration of informal settlers living in congested cities to more spacious rural areas, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said. In a hearing on Wednesday by the Senate Committee on Urban Planning, Housing and Resettlement, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said congestion is one of the factors for the rapid

spread of the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. Chua said, however, that this was only temporary and that in the medium to long term, the government still expects that economic considerations will be the primary motivation for migration in the country. “That is why in the Balik Probinsiya, where Neda is vice chair, we have proposed a framework wherein we will move toward a more balanced regional development so that more people will have the option to stay where they want,

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.5040

in the provinces if they want, without having to be forced to go to the cities and live in congested areas, [where] housing [facilities] are below standards. That is our objective, to create more balanced opportunities,” Chua said. Neda Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon added that this temporary migration will be taken into consideration especially in the upcoming Census of Population and Housing (CPH) to be conducted in September. Edillon said the temporary migration may have caused differenc-

es in the “geographical distribution of settlements” in the country. Apart from the census, this will also figure in the changes now being made to the Philippine Development Plan (PDP), the country’s medium-term socioeconomic blueprint. The updating of the PDP, Chua said, will require revisiting the country’s macroeconomic targets, especially in light of the Covid-19 situation. The changes in these assumptions will affect the government’s ability to meet Continued on A2

A MANGANGALAKAL (a man making a living from picking out recyclable and reusable plastic] carries his stash along Delpan Bridge in Manila on his way to a nearby junk shop. Many Filipinos are making do with various means to survive in the pandemic, and the National Economic and Development Authority sees a temporary migration back to the countryside from cities once seen as the end of the rainbow. BERNARD TESTA

n JAPAN 0.4559 n UK 63.7876 n HK 6.2583 n CHINA 7.0184 n SINGAPORE 35.4484 n AUSTRALIA 34.8889 n EU 57.4093 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9333

Source: BSP (August 26, 2020)


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