BusinessMirror January 4, 2016

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Monday, January 4, 2016 Vol. 11 No. 88

P25.00 nationwide | 5 sections 36 pages | 7 days a week

Optimism abounds as expansion drivers seen more than headwinds special report

INSIDE

By Mia Rosienna Mallari & Rea Cu

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RUNWAY TRENDS

STYLE

D2

golden escape

First of three parts

ong graveyard shifts and cold call-center floors have been the norm in Justin Capiral’s workplace in the past three years. But the 22-yearold call-center agent continues to work and dream of better things for his future, even projecting to notch a major milestone this year. By the end of 2016, Capiral hopes that his long hours in the call-center floor will bear fruit, and allow him the fulfillment of at least one of his dreams—to own a car. “I wasn’t able to achieve it last year because of the not-so-good salary from my previous company,” Capiral said. Capiral believes that call centers, the main Continued on A2

sports

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erap estrada

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E4

The average GDP growth forecast for 2016, based on the BusinessMirror’s poll.

HIGH-RISE buildings, mostly housing business-process outsourcing (BPO) offices, dot the Ortigas area skyline in Mandaluyong City. The BPO sector is among the biggest contributors in the country’s GDP. In 2014 employment in the call-center sector rose 17 percent, with over 1.052 million Filipinos employed by information-technology and BPO firms. Nonoy Lacza

After a bad year, exports expected to surge 8-10% By Catherine N. Pillas

when i was 25

6.35%

XPORTERS are bracing themselves up for an optimistic 8percent to 10-percent growth in 2016, despite last year’s disappointing performance, when the sector was dragged down by domestic regulations and an overheating Chinese economy. Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport),

said he keeps a buoyant outlook for Philippine exports for 2016, because of a number of government initiatives to shore up the sector. “We choose to be optimistic, as we continue to seek for ways to improve the way we conduct business, the way we partner with government, the way we approach our markets as they continue to evolve,” said Ortiz-Luis, adding that the standard 9-percent 10-percent growth is possible for the year.

Why exports petered out in 2015

Department of Trade and Industry’s Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) Director Senen M. Perlada said 2015 was a slow year for Philippine exports due to a slew of factors: The rebalancing of China’s economy, hinged on declining reliance on investment and industry-driven growth and shifting to higher consumption, was a key factor that helped soften the Continued on A4

PHL banks on manufacturing to boost growth By Cai U. Ordinario

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f there’s something the Christmas and New Year celebrations of decades past have proven about Filipinos, it’s that they all love to shop. Entire families trooped to shopping malls nationwide to buy gifts for friends and loved ones, new clothes for the young and the old, and new

gadgets that tickle every tech-savvy Pinoy’s fancy. This is household consumption at its finest. The inflow of overseas Filipino worker remittances and bonuses received by employees from both the public and private sectors became the fuel of Filipinos’ spending power. While this still represented robust economic activity, Economic Planning

PESO exchange rates n US 47.1660

Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said dependence on consumer spending is “not always good” for the economy. In fact, the government is weaning Filipinos away from its overdependence on consumer spending to create jobs, as this is temporary and will not assure the creation of quality jobs that provide decent pay. While malls have been sprouting

all over the Philippines, Balisacan said the quality of jobs in the retail trade is incomparable to those generated by factories. “Growth driven by investment would mean factories, people employed with higher labor productivity, because there’s much more capital per labor, so people tend to receive higher

ANALYSTS MANAGE 2016 OUTLOOK OF INVESTORS By VG Cabuag

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ESPITE their being cautious at the start of 2015, many analysts and traders were still surprised at how the year turned out—seeing the equities market entering the bear territory, a technical term underscoring the fact that prices fell by 20 percent. For this year, many of the analysts, though still mainly positive in their outlook, are not taking any chances as they try to manage investor expectations. “Regardless of the 20-percent fall definition, we argue that we are in a bear market, a period of sustained declines in share prices. We expect this bear market to test the patience of most investors,” said Jose Mari Lacson, head of research at Campos Lanuza and Co. Inc. Last year the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange

index (PSEi) fell year-on-year by almost 4 percent to end2015, at 6,952.08 points, from end-2014 at 7,230.57 points. It fell by 14 percent for the year, from its top of 8,127.48. It also saw foreign investors become net sellers at P59.71 billion, a reversal of P55.71-billion net buy in 2014. The PSEi also snapped its six straight years of annual gains last year. “This bear market will have the legs to keep itself moving over the next six months and possibly for the whole of 2016. It will take time for prices to correct to levels that will not reflect the fundamentals under tighter global liquidity and slower economic growth,” Lacson said. Meanwhile, Justino Calaycay Jr., trader at Philstocks Financial Inc., said since this year is an election year, it could be a boon for the equities market. Continued on A2

Continued on A16

n japan 0.3920 n UK 70.1783 n HK 6.0857 n CHINA 7.2697 n singapore 33.5176 n australia 34.2652 n EU 51.7411 n SAUDI arabia 12.5766

Source: BSP (29 December 2015)


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