AT ISSUE 8 MARCH 2010 by Asian Tigers Investor Report

From the Editor’s Desk Welcome to Asian Tigers, the magazine that brings you fresh insights into the latest business movements of our region’s dynamic movers and shakers.

Asian Tigers Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Each month our team of experienced financial writers research a fresh batch of exciting stories for your leisurely perusal.

Managing Editor

In this issue Bruce Curran reveals how business is blooming for Asian markets, as he explores investment funds in our region that are yielding fruit in abundance -- well before the rest of the world’s slowly reviving economy.

Contributors

Continuing our ‘green shoots of recovery’ theme, Carl Nicholas Ng explores how China is racing ahead to become the world’s first ‘Green Superpower’, by unleashing its vast resources to pursue sustainable energy development. And journalist Steve Lunt takes us on a refreshing tour around the latest green developments in Bali, as the Indonesians aim to keep tourism in a healthy balance with the beautiful island’s environment. Time is of course one of our most precious commodities, and we trust you’ll find a rewarding return on your investment of attention in the following pages. Remember you can also check out our website at asiantir.com for the latest market news.

Mark Wayne Chris Champion David Bowden Steven Lunt Jack Dixon Emilio Antonio Jr. Ricardo Barcelona Carl Nicholas Ng Melvin Leong Ranajay Dasgupta Mike Wilson Bruce Curran

Circulation Manager Bonnie Tsang

Production Manager

Happy reading, browsing, and investing!

Ferdie Ng

Charlie Greene

Design & Layout Rommel Domondon

Design Assistants Nazario Bugaring, Chris Wood, Arnel Mojica Marketing & Advertising

編輯寄語

Janina Garcia garcia@asiantir.com

Editorial & Comments 歡迎閱讀亞洲虎雜誌！網羅亞洲時事熱點，深刻洞察商界風雲，盡在亞洲虎雜誌。經驗豐富的財經作者組成專業團隊，每月奉上精彩資訊，伴您度過閒暇時光。這一期，Bruce Curran為您呈現欣欣向榮的亞洲市場，當世界還在蹣跚復甦之際，且看投資基金如何在亞洲收穫累累碩果。接著「復甦的萌芽」這一主題，Carl Nicholas Ng筆下的中國正全力追求可持續能源發展，矢志成為世界第一個綠色超級大國。專欄記者Steve Lunt揭示峇里島的和諧發展之路，綠色旅遊給這座美麗小島帶來難得機遇。開卷有益，相信您一定會有收穫。別忘了訪問我們的網站asiantir.com，了解最新市場時訊。祝您閱讀愉快，投資順利！ Charlie Greene

Eric Wong editorial@asiantir.com Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only. All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

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MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT

Contents

Mandalay’s Ko-twe Rubies … Gem of an industry in a troubled realm 32

What if China’s Bubble Bursts?

Features

Mobile Media Power 流動媒體的力量

China's Green Revolution 中國的綠色革命

The People’s Republic is pushing hard to establish global leadership in the clean and renewable energy industries

Overview of Vietnam’s current Integrated Facilities Management (IFM) Services Market

Tourism in the Bali Balance

What if China’s Bubble Bursts?:

Confronting the fears of ASEAN economies 東盟經濟隱憂剖析

壯志淩雲

作者/by David Bowden

Blooming 65 in the Face of World Gloom

作者/by Emilio T. Antonio, Jr., Ph. D.

不畏浮雲遮望眼

Pertamina Prepares To Go Public

-亞洲投資基金碩果累累

- Asian Investment Funds Lead the Way

印尼國家石油公司籌劃上市

作者/by Bruce Curran

作者/by Mike Wilson

49 53

The Washington Consensus 華盛頓共識

作者/by Chris Champion

After Copenhagen 後哥本哈根時代

淺談當今越南綜合設施管理 (IFM)服務市場

– Regaining entrepreneurial impetus

作者/by Ranajay Dasgupta

作者/by Ricardo G. Barcelona

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

61 AirAsia Flies Higher

假如中國泡沫破滅

Integrated Facilities Management in Vietnam 越南綜合設施管理

On the Cover:

作者/by Steve Lunt

The Construction Market in Malaysia 作者/by Melvin Leong

Mandalay’s Ko-twe Rubies … Gem of an industry in a troubled realm

峇里島旅遊業走和諧發展之路

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

馬來西亞房屋建造市場

After Copenhagen

作者/by Jack Dixon

中國發力搶佔清潔可再生能源行業制高點

AirAsia Flies Higher

曼德勒的「鴿血紅」 …深陷困局的緬甸寶石產業

作者/by Steve Lunt

Pertamina Prepares To Go Public

—重拾創業動力

Departments 4

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者/by Chris Champion

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Opinion

The 數字的遊戲

Numbers

Game 專欄作者/by Chris Champion

Friendship can be tricky

微妙友誼

There is plenty of ambiguity in the

relationship between China and Australia. They have become uniquely dependent on each other, with Australia’s massive natural resources feeding the economic growth of both countries. Neither can afford to walk away from that relationship, so the language of any disagreement is carefully considered and crafted. 中國與澳洲之間的關係尚存諸多不確定性。兩國經濟相互依賴，澳洲豐富的天然資源可滿足雙方經濟發展的需求。任何一方都不願失去這種合作關係，因此，對於任何分歧，雙方在措辭方面一直慎之又慎。

Sometimes, however, the consideration may go further than language, as in the story about a decision by Australia’s venerated national broadcaster, the Australian Broadcasting Commission, to pull a scheduled screening of a documentary about Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer. She is not popular in Beijing because she claims the predominantly Muslim Uighur people of Xinjiang province are an oppressed minority. 不過，這種謹慎考慮有時會超出語言範疇，例如，澳洲著名全國廣播公司 Australian Broadcasting Commission 近期決定，取消放映有關維族領袖熱比婭的 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

紀錄片。熱比婭宣稱，在中國新疆的維族人受到政府壓迫，因而被北京視為敵對分子。

One person who agrees is documentary maker John Lewis. He made the film, “The 10 Conditions of Love”, which premiered late last year at the Melbourne Film Festival, a debut which Beijing publicly tried to prevent. The ABC, long a bastion of free speech and journalistic integrity, promptly bought the rights to the documentary and scheduled it for

airing on December 17 last year. Then it changed its mind, prompting Mr Lewis to accuse the ABC’s managing director, Mark Scott, of implementing a “soft diplomacy” role for the public broadcaster. 紀錄片製作人 John Lewis 對贊同熱比婭的觀點。他拍攝的電影《愛的十個條件》去年在墨爾本電影節上首映，北京曾公開試圖阻止此片放映。ABC 長期堅持言論自由及新聞正直的原則，該電視台立即

Opinion

買下此紀錄片的放映權，計劃去年12月17 日播映。隨後，電視台改變主意，Lewis 先生指責 ABC 執行總監 Mark Scott 在公共電視台發揮「軟化外交」的作用。

The spat may have remained private but for the newsworthy development that Mr. Scott was hauled before a Senate estimates hearing in early February to explain why he spent public money to buy a documentary which he then decided not to show. His answer — he maintains ambitions to broadcast into China. 該爭議原本僅存在於私下，但近期出現戲劇性發展，Scott 先生須於2月初出席參議員聽證，解釋為何花費公共資金購買紀錄片，隨後又決定不再播映。他的回答是，他始終有意取得在中國的播映權。

Eat meat and save the planet?

食肉與拯救地球？ The cause of global environmental action is not scoring a lot of points lately. With so much scepticism around about global warming — simply because noone seems able to prove it — we now hear news from Britain that vegetarianism may be bad for the planet.

What they found was that the decline in meat consumption was causing an increase in land cultivation and risk to forests. They also found that production methods for meat substitutes can be energy intensive and the final products tend to be highly processed. 克蘭菲爾德大學（Cranfield University）本月發表一項研究結論，關注豆腐等肉類替代產品進口量增加對國內牛肉及羊肉行業的影響。研究結果顯示，肉類消費下降導致土地耕種增加，威脅森林。研究還發現，加工肉類替代產品的工藝能耗較高，最終產品往往經過深加工。

Donal Murphy-Bokern, one of the report’s authors and a former senior government environmentalist, said: “For some people, tofu and other meat substitutes symbolise environmental friendliness but they are not necessarily the badge of merit that people claim.” And in the words of the report’s conclusion: “A switch from beef and milk to highly refined livestock product analogues such as tofu could actually increase the quantity of arable land needed to supply the UK.”

obviously not a great idea to rely on highly-processed products.” 素食協會（Vegetarian Society）發言人警告道：如果您希望透過素食減少自身對環境的影響，依靠深加工產品顯然不是個好主意。」

The lexicology of the GFC

全球金融危機辭典 The global financial crisis has changed the language. The Macquarie Dictionary, for long the respected arbiter of the Australian vernacular, has declared its 2009 Word of the Year to be “shovelready”. The adjective means “a building or infrastructure project capable of being initiated immediately, as soon as funding is assured’’. 全球金融危機改變了人們的語言。《麥誇裏辭典》（Macquarie Dictionary）是澳洲的權威辭典，宣佈將「shovel-ready (動工在即）」作為2009年年度詞彙。該形容詞的含義為「只要資金得到保證，可立即開工的建築或基礎設施項目」。|AT|

報告作者之一兼原高級政府環保官員 Donal Murphy-Bokern 表示：「對有些人而言，豆腐及其他肉類替代品是環保的象徵，而此類產品的實際環保作用無法達到宣稱的效果。」報告總結道：「如果將牛肉及牛奶轉變為高度精煉的牲畜產品替代品，例如豆腐，實際會造成供應英國市場的必要耕地數量增加。」

The report was not commissioned, as might be supposed, by the livestock industry. It was commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund, which was moved to offer a clarification, reminding us that livestock produce large amounts of methane, a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

全球環保行動近期乏善可陳。全球變暖始終疑雲重重，原因很簡單，沒有人能證明全球變暖的原因，現時英國又傳來新聞，認為素食主義可能危害地球環境。

It’s a conclusion of a study published this month by Cranfield University which looked at the effects on the domestic beef and lamb industries from growing imports of meat substitutes such as tofu.

有人可能會猜測，是牲畜行業委託專家撰寫此報告，其實並非如此。此項研究受世界自然基金會（World Wildlife Fund）委託進行，旨在提供明確的結論，提醒我們關注，牲畜可製造大量甲烷，較之二氧化碳，該氣體的溫室效應更為顯著。

In a further caveat, a spokeswoman for the Vegetarian Society, said: “If you’re aiming to reduce your environmental impact by going vegetarian, then it’s MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Opinion

They said... 名人名言 “The man who is denied the opportunity of taking decisions of importance begins to regard as important the decisions he is allowed to make.”

— C Northcote Parkinson (Parkinson’s Law, 1958)

「如果一個人無法得到作出重要決定的機會，對於自己能夠作出的決定將尤為重視。」 — C Northcote Parkinson（帕金森定律，1958年）

A MOMENT IN HISTORY

歷史一刻

Every day (in anecdotal history), Mr. Brown complained that his fellow shop owners on High Street had dirty windows. What a dreadful state of affairs it was he declared, that business people should be so lax. One day, meeting one of his fellow shop owners in the street, he complained so bitterly about the state of all the other shop windows that the other fellow was moved to respond, “And how long since you washed your own shop windows?” Brown 先生每天都會抱怨街邊相鄰的店鋪櫥窗不夠整潔。他認為這種情況令人難

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

以忍受，生意人實在不該如此懶惰。有一天，見到相鄰的店鋪主人時，他又開始抱怨其他店鋪的櫥窗，有人反問道：「您上次清洗自己的櫥窗是多久之前？」 Mr. Brown was surprised to realise that he could not provide a precise answer, and so when he returned to his shop he instructed the apprentice to see to the windows immediately. Later that day, when Mr. Brown emerged from his office and looked out his shop window, he noticed an extraordinary thing. “Look at that,” he said to his staff. “As soon as I

washed my shop window, everyone else in the street did the same!” Brown 先生有些意外，他意識到自己無法給出確切答案，回到店鋪後，他立刻讓員工清洗櫥窗。不久之後，Brown 先生離開辦公室，查看自己店鋪的櫥窗，非同以往的情況出現了。他對員工說：「快看啊，我洗過自己的櫥窗後，街道上所有店鋪都洗了櫥窗！」 Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “A man is what he thinks about all day long.” Ralph Waldo Emerson 曾有名言：「一個人的終日所想是造就一個人關鍵。」

Technology

Mobile Me 流動媒

The mobile phone has

become a powerful marketing tool, but its exciting commercial potential has yet to be fully realized on a truly global scale. For brands seeking to harness this ‘mobile media power’ and capture the lucrative attention of sophisticated media-savvy consumers, their top priority is to ensure that any communications are appropriate and relevant to the target customer’s circumstances. 流動電話已成為功能強大的行銷工具，但真正就全球而言，流動電話的現有商業潛力仍未完全實現。對品牌而言，若想尋求利用此 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Technology

dia Power 體的力量

『流動媒體力量』和吸引深諳媒體的成熟客戶注意（從而實現盈利），首要工作是確保任何通訊適合目標客戶的情況，且與之息息相關。

Profile-based filtering and preferences established by marketers have come a long way in identifying how appropriate messages can reach target customers, but the recipients’ responses still remain largely in single digit percentages.

行銷人員基於個人檔案的篩選及所設定的偏好，已在確定訊息如何有效達至目標客戶方面取得了長足的進步，但接收人仍反應平淡，回復率基本維持在 10% 以下。

The Mobile Marketing Association and several other industry bodies have recently

作者/by Steve Lunt

published articles on the increasing need for location-based targeting of customers, to optimise marketing communications. Location, relevancy and immediacy are increasingly regarded as the mobile’s essential ‘triple-play’. Most of the applications currently being developed for ‘smart phones’ (with GPS or cell site based triangulation capabilities) have built in location identification capabilities, and several leaders in the information and mobile devices industry have paid close attention to this evolution in developing their latest offers to the market.

近期，流動行銷協會及若干其他行業機構發表數篇文章，對提高基於位置直達客

戶 , 優化行銷通訊的需求進行論述。位置 , 關聯性和即時性正逐漸被視為流動行銷必不可少的『三大殺手鐧』。現時大多數針對『智慧型電話』（帶有 GPS 或基於流動電話站點的三角測量功能）開發的應用程式，均已嵌入位置識別功能，且資訊及流動服務業的幾間領先公司均在其最新推向市場的服務中，密切關注這一發展動向。

Mobile Movers and ICE-Shakers ICE：流動行銷解決方案的「破冰者」 As everyday mobile-enabled activities continue to grow, it seems the practical applications of mobile devices are only limited by the imagination of product developers; and as mobile devices become MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Technology

has over 15 years of experience in telecommunications in Europe and in Asia, and he is extremely enthusiastic about the prospects for ICE Corp. He describes the company’s current position: “ICE Corp is at an exciting stage in its development, with some of the key and most sought after ingredients for success in the mobile marketing industry. We have access to mobile users, innovative mobile solutions and a customer base including successful brands that are increasingly featuring ‘mobile’ in their marketing campaigns.”

ICE are strategically located to exploit the fast growing mobile communications markets in Asia and the leading edge technological developments in Europe the most relevant means for reaching customers, marketers strive to march in step with shifts in their patterns of content consumption.

隨著日常流動業務持續增多，限制流動裝置實際應用的唯一因素似乎是產品開發人員的想像力；且隨著流動裝置成為直達客戶的最相關途徑，行銷人員在改變內容消費模式方面穩步挺進。

One Asia-based company aims to become industry leaders in satisfying these dynamic demands. The ICE Corp group offer global multimedia mobile marketing solutions, secure transaction authentication systems over mobile phones, and location based mobile applications. Their rather cool acronym stands for ‘Intelligent Communication Enterprise’, and

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

the initials also neatly crystallize their product strategy, reminding clients and investors that their business comprises three key complementary strands: Information, Communications, and Entertainment — all provided by ICE over mobile devices.

日前，《亞洲虎雜誌》訪問了 ICE Corp 執行董事 Bala Balamurali，以更深入瞭解該公司的業務及前景。Balamurali 在歐洲及亞洲擁有逾 15 年電訊經驗，對 ICE Corp 的前景極為樂觀。他這樣形容該公司的現狀：「ICE Corp 正處於令人激動的發展階段，流動行銷業的關鍵和大多數備受推崇的成功因素，我們都具備。我們可以接觸到流動用戶 , 創新流動解決方案和客戶基礎，我們的客戶基礎包括逐漸在行銷活動中營造『流動』特色的成功品牌。」

Headquartered in Singapore with offices in Malaysia, the Philippines and Switzerland, ICE are strategically located to exploit the fast growing mobile communications markets in Asia and the 一間亞洲公司希望透過滿足這些旺盛的 leading edge technological developments 需求，成為行業佼佼者。ICE Corp 集團 in Europe. ICE aim to deliver mobile 提供全球多媒體流動行銷解決方案，獲得 content to consumers using the most 流動電話交易認證系統和基於位置的流動 appropriate means of transmission, and 應用程式。該公司全稱為『Intelligent their companies are likely to feature in Communication Enterprise』，其簡寫「ICE」 more and more stages of the mobile 剛好意為冰，相當夠「酷」，亦明確展示出 transaction value chain. 該公司的產品策略，提醒客戶及投資者該公司從事三大主流業務，這些業務相輔相成，包括：資訊 , 通訊及娛樂，而所有三大業務均由 ICE 透過流動裝置提供。

Asian Tigers caught up with Bala Balamurali, Executive Director of ICE Corp, to get a better insight of the company’s operations and prospects. Balamurali

Technology

The ‘ICE’ was recently formed — by a group of companies with the common goal of delivering world

class mobile marketing and communications solutions ICE 總部位於新加坡，在馬來西亞 , 菲律賓及瑞士設有辦事處，策略上而言，有利於該公司利用亞洲快速發展的流動通訊市場及歐洲最新科技發展。ICE 旨在採用最適當的傳輸方式，向客戶提供流動內容，且該公司可能會在流動交易價值鏈的更多環節中發揮重要作用。

The ‘ICE’ was recently formed — by a group of companies with the common goal of delivering world class mobile marketing and communications solutions. It comprises three players in mobile messaging, mobile fraud prevention and advanced mobile marketing technologies: Solesys SA, which pioneered the Swiss premium mobile market; Radius-ED, a global technology service provider; and MobiClear, which has developed ‘PIVOT’, a state-of-the-art transaction authentication system to eliminate fraud during electronic transactions, conducted on a global level.

『ICE』由若干有著相同願景的公司於近期成立，它們的共同目標是交付世界級流動行銷及通訊解決方案。其中包括三間流動訊息 , 流動欺詐防範及進階流動行銷技術公司：Solesys SA，瑞士高級流動市場的表表者；

Radius-ED，一間全球技術服務供應商；及 MobiClear，曾開發出『PIVOT』，即避免全球性電子交易欺詐的先進交易認證系統。

Balamurali explains ICE Corp’s strategy: “We have been vigorously pursuing interests in mobile marketing technologies to enable us to stay ahead of the continued evolution of the mobile world. Specifically targeted acquisitions are a key part of our strategy to stay at the forefront of this fastmoving industry.” He believes that “we are still only at the very early stages of a mobile advertising explosion. ICE Group’s introduction of its new iCEsync platform is expected to fit perfectly into a significant

opportunity that exists in the mobile marketing world for communications that are location relevant.”

對於 ICE Corp 的策略，Balamurali 解釋說：「我們堅持不懈地尋求流動行銷技術的創新，以使我們可在全球流動業的持續發展中處於領先地位。目標明確的收購是我們策略的關鍵環節，藉助收購我們方可在這一發展迅速的行業利於不敗之地。」他認為「我們仍處在流動廣告激增的最前期。 ICE 集團推出的全新 iCEsync 平台，有望完美契合流動行銷業界位置相關通訊的重大商機。」

The ICE group have just announced they will commence customer trials of their new location based ‘iCEsync’ platform in early March, which will be a comprehensive, global ‘mobile ecosystem’ that offers more than any existing LBS. As a mobile client that sits and works in the background on mobile phones, the iCEsync

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Technology

to communicate efficiently across geographical and network boundaries,” says Balamurali. The iCEsync network will effectively be a layer across GSM networks worldwide, as the technology allows users to enjoy a truly mobile suite of services across all GSM and WiFi networks on a multitude of devices. Service providers and other mobile marketing entities will be able to target their customer segments more accurately than ever before, and achieve much higher returns on their marketing dollars.

application is less than 500kB in size, and can be downloaded via mobile internet or relayed via Bluetooth or any other form of mobile-to-mobile transmission. After launching the application, consumers are provided with a log-in ID and password; users can then personalise their profile on the www.ice-sync.com website before enjoying a range of features, including ‘iCEchat’, ‘iCEcall’ and ‘iCEvideo’ free of charge (excepting data charges from mobile operators). Users can create their own mobile world by forming communities, broadcasting messages and sharing captions — just as they would on an online social network.

ICE 集團剛剛宣佈，將於 3 月初啟動基於位置的全新『iCEsync』平台的客戶試用活動，該系統將成為全球綜合性『流動生態系統』，其功能超過任何現有 LBS。作為安裝於及用於流動電話中的流動客戶端， iCEsync 應用程式不足 500kB，可透過流動互聯網下載，或透過藍芽傳輸，或進行任何其他形式的流動到流動傳輸。客戶安裝該應用程式後，將獲提供登入 ID 及密碼；然後，使用者可登入網站 www.ice-sync. com，個人化其檔案，之後便可免費（但須支付流動運營商收取的數據費）享用一系列功能，包括『iCEchat』,『iCEcall』和『iCEvideo』。使用者可透過編寫通訊 , 發送訊息及分享標題，建立自己的流動世界，猶如使用社交網絡。

“With iCEsync, our goal was to develop a platform that is device and network agnostic, making it possible for users to enjoy seamless connectivity, and for service providers and advertisers ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Balamurali 說：「我們的目標是，借助 iCEsync 開發一個兼容任何裝置及網絡的平台，令使用者可享受順暢無歇的連接，令服務供應商及廣告客戶跨越地理及網絡界限，有效傳播訊息。」iCEsync 網絡無疑將成為遍佈全球 GSM 網絡的基礎，因為透過該技術，使用者即便使用各種各樣不同的裝置，亦可享受到跨所有 GSM 和 WiFi 網

— GPRS, 3G or WiFi — in a consumer’s home country, roaming country or when using a temporary SIM: it’s a single ‘Global Mobile Network’, no matter who the mobile operators are, and no matter where they are based. Basically, wherever you can connect to the internet with your smart phone, you can have iCE.

該公司稱其將支援個人檔案 , 偏好及位置均準確映射的眾多使用者，同時採用將來自不同網絡及國家的人合而為一的系統，保護使用者的私隱。iCEsync 的『萬維網』在客戶本國 , 漫遊國家或在使用臨時 SIM 時，均可使用任何數據網絡—GPRS,3G 或 WiFi ：這是一個單一『全球流動網絡』，而不論流動運營商是誰 , 位於何地。基本而言，不論在哪里，只要有 iCE，便可連接至互聯網。

This launch version of iCEsync will work with mobile phones using the Windows Mobile and Symbian S60

The company says it will support a network of users whose profile, preferences and location are precisely mapped — while preserving the user’s privacy — using a system that combines people from different networks and countries into one 絡的 , 真正的流動服務組合。服務供應商及其他流動行銷機構將能夠以前所未有的準確性，直達目標客戶群體，並實現更高的行銷投資回報。

operating systems, which includes Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Samsung smart phones, amongst others. ICE also says it’s on track with mobile client development work for BlackBerry users and devices using the Android operating system.

此安裝版的 iCEsync 將用於裝有 Windows Mobile 及 Symbian S60 操作系統的流動電話，包括 Nokia,Sony Ericsson 及 Samsung 等智慧型電話。ICE 亦表示其正在開發供 BlackBerry 使用者及裝有 Android 操作系統的裝置所使用的流動客戶端。

Leveraging their three subsidiaries Mobiclear, Radius-ED and Solesys SA, the ICE group can offer its users a new way of staying connected over their mobile phones, while also providing its corporate customers unprecedented capabilities for location targeted mobile marketing. iCEsync is aimed at helping users get the most out of their smart phones. Combining location based capabilities with social networking

A New Mobile World A global locationtargeted audience for marketers to address more accurately than ever before

A single Global Mobile Network no matter who is or where your mobile operator is from

The system that combines people from different networks and countries into one

iCEsync is a global mobile platform provided by Intelligent Communication Enterprise (ICE Corp) OTC BB: ICMC ICE Corp provides global multimedia mobile marketing solutions, secure transaction authentication systems over mobile and location based mobile applications. ICE Corp is headquartered in Singapore with ofďŹ ces in Malaysia, Philippines and Switzerland. For more information visit www.ice-sync.com or www.icecorpasia.com

Technology

features that most users are familiar with, iCEsync is expected to introduce a whole new dimension of connectivity

ICE 集團透過三間附屬公司 Mobiclear,Radius-ED 及 Solesys SA，向使用者提供透過流動電話聯網的全新方式，同時亦向公司客戶提供在針對位置的流動行銷方面前所未有的功能。iCEsync 的目標是幫助使用者充分利用其智慧型電話。 iCEsync 將基於位置的功能與大多數使用者熟悉的社交網絡功能融為一體，有望帶來煥然一新的連接方式。

A New ICE-Age? 新ICE時代？ Working on a wide range of projects from basic mobile messaging through to full blown campaigns, the ICE Corp group’s credentials seem impressive, having acquired over 10 years of mobile marketing experience. During the course of their first decade, Radius built up a customer base of major aggregators in the mobile messaging market and several large corporate accounts, including blue chip brands. They are connected to over 600 mobile networks worldwide, delivering messages to over 350 million mobile users worldwide. Radius operate from their offices in Malaysia and the Philippines, providing marketing coverage that includes Europe and the USA.

客戶基礎，由流動訊息市場的主要集團和幾個大型企業客戶組成，包括首屈一指的品牌公司。該等公司連接至全球逾 600 個流動網絡，向全球逾 3.5 億流動使用者發送訊息。Radius 透過位於馬來西亞和菲律賓的辦事處經營業務，行銷範圍涵蓋歐洲及美國。

The ICE Corp group reported revenues of approximately US$10m for the year 2009. Innovative new messaging solutions and expanded network coverage helped Radius end the year on a high note, and strengthened their revenue base substantially. Radius have been the major revenue contributor to the group in 2009, while Mobiclear and Solesys SA have been vigorously pursuing development projects to set the ICE group on course for its next growth phase.

從基本的流動訊息傳送到全面的宣傳活 2009 年，ICE Corp 集團錄得約 1,000 萬動，ICE Corp 集團參與過各種各樣的項目，美元收入。創新訊息解決方案及擴大後的積累了逾 10 年的流動行銷經驗，其資歷令網絡覆蓋範圍，幫助 Radius 於該年度獲人印象深刻。前十年，Radius 逐步建立了得出色業績，並切實鞏固了其收入基礎。 Radius 已於 2009 年成為該集團的主要收入貢獻者，而 Mobiclear 及 Solesys SA 一直在積極參與開發項目，幫助 ICE 集團進入下一發展階段。

With the experience and extensive market reach to mobile users of Radius, the mobile security features of Mobiclear, and the location based capabilities of Solesys, it seems that the ICE Corp group have an ideal foundation for success in delivering their next generation mobile marketing platform, iCEsync — and they hope to reach millions of users with this new service, within a very short time.

ICE Corp 集團憑藉 Radius 的經驗及觸及流動使用者的廣泛市場範圍 ,Mobiclear 的流動安全功能及 Solesys 基於位置的功能，為交付下一代流動行銷平台 iCEsync 奠定了理想的成功基礎，而該集團希望透過此 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

項新服務，在非常短的時間內獲得數百萬使用者。

As we’re now living in such a dynamic new era of increasingly mobile media, Balamurali is confident about the financial prospects for ICE Corp: “More information is now available on the economic dimensions of social networks. We hear recent estimates of revenues per user per year in the most popular social networks of anywhere between US$2 and US$5 per year – with limited location targeting. We are anticipating a fast global take-up of the iCEsync mobile application. With hundreds of millions of potential users, we are very optimistic about the future.”

由於我們現在處於瞬息萬變 , 流動媒體不斷增多的新時代，Balamurali 對 ICE Corp 的財務前景充滿信心：「目前，有關社交網絡的經濟效益有了更多資訊。近期，我們聽說，某地最受歡迎的社交網絡每個使用者的收入估計為每年 2 美元至 5 美元，而且該網絡的位置目標還非常有限。我們預期，iCEsync 流動應用程式將迅速在全球推廣。我們擁有數億潛在使用者，因此我們對未來非常樂觀。」

So it looks like we may be about to see the beginning of our next ICE-age —much sooner than we think.

所以，我們似乎即將見證下一個 ICE 時代的開始—其到來速度超出我們的想像。|AT| Intelligent Communication Enterprise, Corp. Headquarters: Singapore

Offices:

Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Switzerland

Employees: 60

ICMC (USA) www.icecorpasia.com

Environment

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

It is a small but telling sign of

the times.

這是一個不起眼卻意義非凡的標誌。

The FIFA World Cup’s newest sponsor is not one of Europe’s wind energy giants, America’s solar energy pioneers or Japan’s hybrid car manufacturers – it is a Chinese renewable energy company.

國際足聯世界盃贊助商中的新貴，不是歐洲的風力能源巨頭，不是美國的太陽能先鋒，也不是日本的混合動力汽車製造商，而是一家來自中國的可再生能源公司。

Yingli Green Energy, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of solar panels, was unveiled by FIFA in February as the first renewable energy partner for football’s showpiece event. Headquartered near Beijing, Yingli joins the likes of Adidas, Coca-Cola, Hyundai, Sony, Visa, Budweiser, and McDonald’s in becoming a World Cup sponsor.

世界最大的太陽能電池板製造商之一—英利綠色能源控股有限公司，於二月份當選為國際足聯世界盃足球賽首個可再生能源合作夥伴。總部位於北京附近的英利公司，跟阿迪達斯，可口可樂，現代，索尼，維薩，百威啤酒和麥當勞一道，成為世界盃贊助商。

While sports events may seem like an unlikely indicator for anything, Yingli’s entry into the ranks of these well-known brands is a measure of Chinese ambitions to dominate the global clean energy market.

也許體育比賽不能說明什麼，但英利加入這些著名品牌的行列，已彰顯出中國想要主宰全球清潔能源市場的雄心。

It is a vision supported by official government policy and backed by plans for large, record-breaking projects – initiatives that are set to make China the leading producer and the leading market for the worldwide renewable energy industry.

這是一個背靠國家戰略支持的願景，以空前龐大的工程項目作為後盾，終極目標是使

中國成為世界可再生能源行業的領先生產者和首屈一指的市場。

A report published by the Climate Group, an international non-profit group of large corporations and subnational governments, on the eve of the Beijing Olympics in 2008 was bullishly titled “China’s Clean Revolution” and examined the country’s emerging dominance in the sector.

2008年北京奧運會前夕，氣候組織（一家由知名工商企業和地方政府組成的國際非營利機構）發表了一份名為「中國的清潔革命」的報告，分析了中國在此領域日漸興起的影響力。

According to the report Chinais already a world leader in the manufacturing of technology essential for renewable energy. The country’s six biggest companies manufacturing solar photovoltaic cells (including World Cup sponsor Yingli) have a combined market value of over US$15 billion and produced over 820 megawatts (MW) of solar MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Environment

photovoltaic technology in 2007, second only to Japan.

報告表示，中國已成為可再生能源關鍵技術的領先國家，2007年國內六大太陽能光伏電池生產企業（包括世界盃贊助商英利）合共佔據150多億美元的市場，生產太陽能光伏電池超過820兆瓦，僅次於日本。

The story is similar in wind technology, where China is set to become the world’s leading manufacturer of wind turbines – China’s production capacity of these turbines was expected to exceed 10 gigawatts (GW) by 2009.

China is already a world leader in the manufacturing of technology essential for renewable energy. The country’s six biggest companies manufacturing solar photovoltaic cells have a combined market value of over US$15 billion and produced over 820 megawatts of solar photovoltaic technology in 2007, second only to Japan.

在風能技術上，中國同樣奮力爭先，致力成為風力渦輪機的製造強國。2009年，預計中國的風機製造產能可突破10千兆瓦。

These clean energy industries now employ more than 1.12 million people and add 100,000 people to their workforce every year, says the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association.

據中國可再生能源行業協會表示，這些清潔能源行業現有僱員逾112萬人，每年可新增就業10萬人。

A strong internal market has helped Chinese manufacturers leapfrog into the top ranks of the renewable energy industry. The country is the largest market for power equipment due to the government’s commitment to upgrading the electricity grid, amounting to US$45 billion in 2009 alone.

依託巨大的國內市場，中國企業走在了可再生能源產業的前沿。政府大力推動電網升級改造，單是2009年就投入資金450億美元，這讓中國成為世界最大的電力設備市場。

Hydropower storage

Other incentives have also been introduced, including a renewable energy fee for all electricity users to subsidise the additional cost to China’s energy grid of transmitting clean energy instead of coal-fired power. China’s legislature passed a law in December 2009 forcing grid operators to pay twice the value of electricity from renewable energy sources that it fails to distribute to its grid.

政府還引入許多鼓勵措施，比如向所有電力用戶收取可再生能源費用，用來補貼國家電網輸送清潔電力以取代火電所產生的額外成本。2009年12月中國頒佈法律，要求電網公司全額收購可再生能源生產的電力，否則將被罰款，最高罰款額可以達到可再生能源企業經濟損失的兩倍。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Solar Panels

Large investment is required to meet China’s growing demand for electricity, which will force the country to add almost nine times

more generating capacity then the United States over the next 10 years To harness the massive power generated by wind, solar and hydroelectric sources in remote areas, China is constructing continentalscale high-voltage direct-current lines (HVDC) lines that remain the stuff of blueprints in Europe and the United States. The country is building enough HVDC lines to double its transmission capacity to 38,000 MW – and is planning to add another 18,000 MW of lines.

為了讓偏遠地區用上取之不竭的風能，太陽能和水電能，中國正在建設龐大的高壓直流電網，借鑒歐洲和美國的經驗，整個高壓直流電網的輸電能力可以倍增到38,000兆瓦，並且計劃再建18,000兆瓦的電網。

Large investment is required to meet China’s growing demand for electricity, which will force the country to add almost nine times more generating capacity than the United States over the

next 10 years. This enormous market grants Chinese clean energy companies efficiencies of scale that help them price their products competitively against Western counterparts.

中國需要大力投資來滿足持續增加的電力需求，今後十年其新增發電量幾乎比美國多九倍。這個大市場給中國的清潔能源企業帶來規模效益，使其產品價格比西方同行更具競爭力。

The country also maintains a significant cost advantage over its competitors in America and Europe. Shanghai-based Suntech Power, the world’s third largest solar energy company, pays a monthly minimum wage of $141.79 at its plant in Wuxi, China that produces solar panels. That’s almost 90% less than the monthly minimum wage of US$1,320 for a 40-hour work-week in the United States.

相比歐美，中國保持著明顯的成本優勢。總部位於上海的世界第三大太陽能企業尚德太陽能電力有限公司，其無錫太陽能電池板廠每月最低工資僅有141.79美元，比起美國每週40小時的最低月薪1,320美元，少了將近九成。

These competitive advantages have led multinational corporations to set up their production facilities in China. Denmark’s Vestas, a leader in wind technology, set up the world’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing complex in Tianjin to take advantage of the country’s burgeoning demand and lowcost labour.

這些競爭優勢吸引跨國公司紛紛來華設廠。著名的丹麥風能技術公司Vestas，就把全球最大的風力渦輪機製造廠設在天津，看中的是中國方興未艾的需求，還有低廉的勞動成本。

China’s increasing weight in the renewable energy industry marks a seismic shift in the sector’s landscape. Leadership in renewable energy projects has long been in American and European hands due to their advantages in financing, research and experience. Some of the world’s largest clean energy projects are currently found in the United States and the European Union. 中國在可再生能源行業的地位日益舉足輕重，行業版圖正醞釀變局。長久以來，憑藉融資，研發和經驗上的優勢，可再生能源的領導

Environment

TABLE 1. World’s Largest Renewable Energy Projects 表 1. 世界最大的可再生能源項目

Name 名稱

Location 地點

Type 類型

Capacity 發電量

California 加利福尼亞州

Geothermal 地熱能

1,000 MW / 兆瓦

Roscoe Wind Farm

Texas 德克薩斯州

Onshore Wind 陸上風能

782 MW / 兆瓦

Horns Rev 2 Farm

Denmark 丹麥

Offshore Wind 海上風能

209 MW / 兆瓦

Solar Energy Generating System

California 加利福尼亞州

Solar Thermal 太陽能

354 MW / 兆瓦

Olmedilla Solar Park

Spain 西班牙

Solar Photovoltaic 太陽能光伏

60 MW / 兆瓦

The Geysers

權一直掌握在歐美手中，一些世界上最大的清潔能源項目現在都落戶於美國和歐盟。

By 2008, developed countries had installed 207 GW of renewable power generation (excluding large hydropower projects) compared to 88 GW among developing countries, according to the 2009 Renewables Global Status Report produced by REN21, an international policy network for leadership in green technologies.

根據REN21（一個致力倡導綠色技術的可再生能源政策網絡）發佈的《2009年可再生能源全球狀況報告》，截止到2008年，發達國家的可再生能源發電裝機容量已達207千兆瓦（不含大型水電項目），遠高於發展中國家的88千兆瓦。

But this gap is set to close over the next decade as the Chinese government aggressively pursues its target of deriving

10% of its power generation capacity from clean energy by 2010 and 15% percent by 2020.

然而這個差距必定會在未來十年縮小，因為中國正以咄咄逼人之勢實現其目標：2010年清潔能源發電量將達到10%，2020年達到15%。

Reaching these goals by 2020 will require almost US$400 billion in renewable energy investment, according to the Climate Group’s report. China’s investment in renewable energy in 2007 was US$12 billion, nearly level with world leader Germany as a percentage of GDP, allowing China to take leadership of the industry on several key measures.

根據氣候組織的報告，若要在2020年之前實現這些目標，大概需要四千億美元的可再生能源投資。2007年中國的可再生能源投資是120億美元，從這項投資佔GDP的比例來看，

中國已接近世界先進國家的德國，並且在幾個重要指標上居業界領先地位。

The latest figures from the Global Wind Energy Council showed China surpassing the United States in new installations of wind power in 2009 and overtaking European clean energy leader Germany in total installed capacity by the end of 2010. China will likely have 135,000 MW of wind power capacity by 2020, based on forecasts developed by consulting firm Emerging Energy Research.

來自全球風能委員會的最新數據顯示，2009年中國的風力發電新增裝機容量已超過美元，到2010年總裝機容量將超過歐洲清潔能源領跑者的德國。據諮詢機構 Emerging Energy Research預測，到2020年中國的風力發電容量將達到13.5萬兆瓦。

The rapid rollout of renewable energy capacity in China follows the template of the massive Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest hydroelectric power source. The state began construction of the dam in 1994; upon its completion in 2011 its total capacity will be 22,500 MW.

三峽大壩是中國可再生能源發電的樣板，它是全球最大的水力發電樞紐。大壩於 1994年開工，到2011年竣工後，總發電量可達22,500兆瓦。

In a decade the world’s largest solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and onshore wind energy facilities will all be found in China. These massive installations are all driven by government fiat or state initiatives. The Gansu and Xinjiang wind farms are part of seven wind megaprojects China’s National Energy Administration announced in July ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Environment

TABLE 2. Top Five Wind Power Capacity Addition in 2009 表 2. 2009年新增風力發電容量前五名

New Capacity 新增容量

% Share of Addition 於新增總量中佔比

Total Capacity 總容量

China 中國

13,000 MW / 兆瓦

35%

25,104 MW / 兆瓦

United States 美國

9,922 MW / 兆瓦

27%

35,159 MW / 兆瓦

Spain 西班牙

2,459 MW / 兆瓦

19,149 MW / 兆瓦

Germany 德國

1,917 MW / 兆瓦

25,777 MW / 兆瓦

India 印度

1,271 MW / 兆瓦

10,926 MW / 兆瓦

Country 國家

TABLE 3. China’s Largest Renewable Energy Projects 表3. 中國最大的可再生能源項目

Name 名稱 First Solar / Ordos City 鄂爾多斯市 eSolar / Penglai Electric 蓬萊電力 Datang / Chifeng City 大唐發電 / 赤峰市

Gansu Hexi Wind Corridor 新疆哈密風電場

Xinjiang Hami Wind Farm 新疆哈密風電場 2009 which will cost an estimated US$140 billion to construct and boost the country’s total power capacity by 120,000 MW by 2020.

Type 類型 Solar Photovoltaic 太陽能光伏

Solar Thermal 太陽熱能

Onshore Wind 陸上風能

Capacity 發電量

Target Date 投產時間

2,000 MW / 兆瓦

2020

2,000 MW / 兆瓦

2021

1,500 MW / 兆瓦

2010

20,000 MW / 兆瓦

2020

20,000 MW / 兆瓦

2020

Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. In return for this investment China will implement a tariff forcing utilities to pay extra for the power that First Solar produces.

十年後，世界最大的太陽能光伏發電，太陽熱能發電和陸上風能發電項目就要現身於中國，它們背後是國家意志和政府扶持。2009 年7月國家能源局公佈七個大型風電項目，其中甘肅和新疆的風電場赫然在列。這些項目總投資1,400億美元，到2020年將使全國的總發電量增加12萬兆瓦。

中國政府積極扶持北方的大型太陽能項目。近期，以生產全世界最低成本的光伏電池著稱的美國First Solar公司，就與中國政府簽訂諒解備忘錄，將投資60億美元在內蒙古鄂爾多斯市建造一座太陽能發電廠。作為這項投資的回報，政府將通過電價手段，引導企業購買First Solar生產的電力。

The Chinese government is also providing support for the gigantic solar projects being pursued in the northern part of the country. First Solar, an American company that produces the lowest-cost photovoltaic cells in the world, signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese government officials to develop their US$6 billion solar plant in

California-based eSolar’s involvement in China will enjoy similar concessions from the state. While Chinese firm Penglai Electric licenses eSolar’s technology to locally manufacture the components for a solar thermal plant, the government is providing financing through local banks and land in the Yulin Alternative Energy Park in Shaanxi province.

來自加州的eSolar同樣在中國享受到實惠，它為中國蓬萊電力設備製造有限公司提供技術，在國內生產供太陽熱能發電廠使用的組件，同時中國政府通過國內銀行安排融資，並在陝西榆林新能源產業園為其提供土地。

As the world turns to clean and renewable sources of energy to combat climate change, reduce pollution and lessen dependence on fossil fuels, China is racing into pole position to become the world’s first green superpower as it unleashes the resources of its economy and government to pursue sustainable energy development.

清潔能源和可再生能源是全世界應對氣候變化，減少污染及減輕對化石燃料依賴的希望，而中國正以領跑者的姿態奔向世界第一個綠色超級大國之路，從而全力保證國家的可持續發展。|AT| MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

The 馬來西亞房屋建造市場 Construction Market in Malaysia 作者/by Melvin Leong

Fundamentally, construction

activities are derived from the local economic activities in Malaysia. The volatile global economy between 2008 and 2009 constituted an overall decline in revenue stream in Malaysia’s building construction market. As the market appears to echo the overall sentiments of the national and global economies, it is hit hard by economic downtimes every decade. Hence, the growth of the market tends to be in a cyclical trend. Nonetheless, construction activities related to social, community, and environmental infrastructures such as municipal water and wastewater treatment plants remain conducive. 從根本而言，馬來西亞的建築業活動都是來源於本國的經濟活動。受2008年至2009年的全球經濟危機的衝擊，馬來西亞房屋建造市場整體收入縮水。該市場與國內和全球經濟亦步亦趨，每隔十年便會經歷一次倒退，因此呈現出週期性增長態勢。儘管如此，與社會,社區和環境基礎設施相關的建築業活動卻保持穩健，城市用水及汚水處理廠都是最好例證。

Socio-economic Growth a Foundation of Malaysia’s Building Construction Market 社會經濟發展—馬來西亞房屋建造市場的根本所在 Changing demographics such as an annual population growth of about 2.0 percent, migration (under the Malaysia My Second Home Program), and socioeconomic growth are resulting in the ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Economy

building construction market expansion, as these changing demographics increase demand for new buildings and refurbishment of existing ones.

約 2% 的人口年增長率 , 移民（來自馬來西亞第二家園計劃）使馬來西亞的人口結構悄然改變，加上社會經濟發展，促進了房屋建造市場的發展，因為人口增加意味著需要修建更多新樓 , 改造更多舊樓。

In Malaysia, construction of nonresidential and residential buildings contributed between 40 to 55 percent of the total construction market between 2006 and 2009. The market revenues for building construction reached approximately $7.21 billion in 2008 and $6.67 billion in 2009, and it will potentially hit the $9.00 billion mark by 2015.

在馬來西亞，非住宅和住宅樓宇的建設量，約佔 2006 年至 2009 年整個建築市場的 40%-55%。2008 年房屋建造市場收入約為 72.1 億美元，2009 年約 66.7 億美元，到 2015 年有望達致 90 億美元。

While the overall building construction market plummeted in 2008 and registered low growth in 2009, few non-residential building construction segments are expected to drive the growth of the market in 2010, catalyzed by socio-economic

growths such as tourism, education, and healthcare.

儘管房屋建造市場在 2008 年急轉直下，在 2009 年持續低靡，但在旅遊 , 教育和醫療等社會經濟增長領域的推動下，2010 年非住宅樓宇建設還是會為提振房屋建造市場貢獻些許力量。

Between 55 to 60 percent of the building construction market was accounted to non-residential construction in terms of revenues and number of projects in 2008 and 2009, while the remaining market was accounted by residential building constructions.

從 2008 年及 2009 年的收入和項目數目來看，非住宅建設佔據了房屋建造市場的 55%-60%，剩餘份額歸住宅建設所有。

The growth of non-residential building construction seemed to be able to traverse better than the residential building segment during the economy downtime. Frost & Sullivan finds that the revenue growth of nonresidential

building construction is higher than residential building construction by 3 to 5 percent annually until 2015. Additionally, the growth trend of the former segment in recent years of economic volatility suggested that it performed better than the residential building segment.

由此看來，非住宅樓宇建設比住宅樓宇建設更容易渡過經濟低靡時期。Frost & Sullivan 公司預計，到 2015 年之前，非住宅樓宇建設的收入將每年以高出住宅樓宇建設 3%-5% 的速度增長。此外，非住宅樓宇建設在近幾年經濟危機時期的增長速度亦表明非住宅樓宇建設的表現比住宅樓宇建設更勝一籌。

It is expected that the overall building construction market would be elevated in growth with the impending 10th Malaysia Plan (2011-2015). Development expenditure by the Government of Malaysia is expected to be $67.80 billion (approximately MYR230 billion). The MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

Malaysia has a rapidly-growing tourism industry, with all-time high revenues of $14.16

billion in 2008

Government has also expressed interest in more involvements from the private sector and investors to engage in public projects such as construction and management of schools, hospitals, and other community infrastructures.

預計第十個大馬計劃 (2011-2015) 的臨近將推助整個房屋建造市場加速增長。馬來西亞政府的發展開支預算或將達 678 億美元（約 2,300 億馬幣）。政府還表示將大力支持私營企業和投資者投身公共項目，包括建設和管理學校 , 醫院及其他社區基礎設施等。

Tourism Industry on the Rise 旅遊業持續升溫 Malaysia has a rapidly-growing tourism industry, with all-time high revenues of $14.16 billion in 2008, and it is expected to grow to $14.87 billion in 2009 or an increase of approximately 5 percent.

馬來西亞的旅遊業發展迅猛，2008 年收入創出新高，報 141.6 億美元，預計 2009 年收入將增至 148.7 億美元，漲幅約 5%。

Spurred by the growth of eco-tourism and agro-tourism, it is encouraging the government to invest more in the new construction and refurbishment of hotels, resorts, shopping areas, holiday camps, and recreational projects.

受生態旅遊和農業旅遊熱潮的刺激，政府將投入更多資金用於新建和改造酒店 , 度假村 , 購物區 , 度假營和娛樂項目。

To further boost the growth of the country’s healthcare tourism industry, the government recently announced the provision of tax exemptions equivalent to 100 percent of qualifying capital expenditure incurred for the first five years for the construction of new hospitals or expansion, modernization, or refurbishment of existing healthcare centres. The tax exemption application period is between 2010 and 2014.

為進一步促進馬來西亞醫療旅遊業的發展，政府近期出台免稅新政，將 100% 免除相當於醫院新建或擴建工程 , 現有醫療中心升級或改造工程前五年招致的全部合資格資本開支的稅款。免稅申請期限為 2010 年至 2014 年間。

Prospects in Building Construction 房屋建造業前景展望 The Malaysian building construction market is highly competitive, with most of the leading contractors, architects, and building material suppliers located in and around Klang Valley. The market is led by public-listed and local contractors and developers while foreign participation is encouraged in areas

where local expertise may be scarce, such as technologies in green building, prefabrication practice, smart building, and energy efficient building.

馬來西亞房屋建造市場競爭激烈，領先承包商 , 建築師和建材供應商大多集中在巴生谷附近。本國的上市承包商和發展商佔據主導，但鼓勵外資企業參與本土專家稀缺的領域，如綠色建築技術 , 預製實務 , 智能建築和節能建築等。

With the introduction and launching of its own green building assessment tool in the middle of 2009 – the Green Building Index – Malaysia is now on the green roadmap with forthcoming assessments of the environmental impacts of buildings and provision of guidelines for new building constructions. Further development on the index is expected to take place in forthcoming years and this augers well for green technologists in the space of energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, site management, materials, and water efficiency.

隨著 2009 年年中綠色建築評估工具— 綠色建築指數的引入，馬來西亞亦將步入綠色時代，該國將對樓宇進行環境影響評估，制定樓宇建築新指引。該指數在未來幾年有望得到深入挖掘，這對能源效率 , 室內環境質量 , 工地管理 , 材料和節水等綠色技術從業者而言極為有利。

With the government’s concerted effort to encourage both investors and the public to embrace green technology, the government has allocated RM20 million or $6.1 million in its 2010 budget to intensify green-awareness ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Economy

through the launch of the IBS Roadmap. Building components are manufactured off-site and then coupled or assembled together on-site or off-site with minimum installation work. Suppliers of pre-cast concrete framing, panel 為說服投資者和公眾接受綠色技術，政 and box systems; steel framework 府頗下了一番功夫，現已從 2010 年預算中 systems; prefabricated timber 撥出 2 千萬馬幣（610 萬美元）用以加強 framing systems; steel framing 環保宣傳活動和倡導環境友好型生活方式。 systems; and block work systems 當然，政府在採購商品和服務時也將優先 are likely to benefit from CIDB’s 考慮符合綠色技術標準的環境友好型產品 endorsement of IBS. activities and to encourage the practice of environmentally-friendly lifestyles. This would also include prioritization of environmental-friendly products and services that comply with greentechnology standards in the government procurement of goods and services.

和服務，以身作則。

Additionally, suppliers of green technologies in the building construction space should take the advantage with the launch of the government’s RM1.5 billion ($455.0 million) soft loans to companies that supply and use green technologies. The maximum for suppliers is RM50 million ($15 million). This green loan is made available since January 2010 and the scheme can be applied at the National Green Technology Centre.

房屋建造領域的綠色技術供應商還可享受合共 15 億馬幣（4.55 億美元）的政府優惠貸款，這筆資金專為供應和使用綠色技術的公司提供。供應商的最高貸款額度為 5,000 萬馬幣（1,500 萬美元）。綠色貸款自 2010 年 1 月起正式發放，有意者可前往全國綠色技術中心遞交申請。

The future of Malaysia’s building construction will see greater deployment of industrialized building systems (IBS) as it is heavily encouraged by the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB)

建築業發展局 (CIDB) 發佈 IBS 路線圖，鼓勵馬來西亞房屋建造業在工業化建築系統 (IBS) 方面做出更多努力。工業化建築系統是在別處製造房屋組件，再到工地或其他地方將其耦合或組裝到一起，以實現最為精簡的安裝程序。預製混凝土框架 , 面板和箱型系統 , 鋼框架系統 , 預製木材框架系統 , 鋼龍骨系統和模塊工程系統 (block work systems) 供應商，將從建築業發展局的 IBS 推廣活動中受益。

The design of energy efficient buildings has become a major issue especially in light of the damaging effects the buildings would otherwise have on the environment. The government has launched several initiatives to enhance the adoption of energy efficient designs. These initiatives come in the form of regulations, incentives, campaigns, and the establishment of an Energy Commission (a corporate body under the Energy Commission Act 2001 or Act 610). 節能建築的設計已成為當下建築業的最

大熱門，特別是考慮到樓宇對於環境的危害。為促進節能設計的應用，政府採取了多項措施，包括制定法規 , 出台獎勵 , 加強宣傳和成立能源委員會（一個根據《2001 年能源委員會法案》（又稱《法案 610》）成立的法人團體）。

Energy efficient design elements – passive (building orientation, natural air ventilation) and active (innovative HVAC and lighting control systems, use of energy efficient appliances and comprehensive energy management systems) – are also being promoted, to be inculcated into construction projects in Malaysia.

節能設計元素—包括被動元素（樓宇朝向 , 自然通風）和主動元素（創新型暖通空調和照明控制系統 , 節能裝置的應用和綜合能源管理系統）—也正逐步推廣，將被馬來西亞的建築項目所吸收採納。

Based on current trends, energy will increasingly become more expensive and as Malaysia is likely to become a net importer of energy after 2010, energy standards and implementations will definitely become mandatory.

依目前的趨勢來看，能源價格只會有增無減。由於馬來西亞或會在 2010 年後成為能源淨進口國，因此必須制定能源標準並予以落實。

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

2008 and 2009 have been challenging years for the building construction market in the face of a major economic crisis, but the Malaysian market has remained stable Impacts of Building Construction on Building Technologies 樓宇建設對建築技術的影響 The positive growth of the building construction market in Malaysia is benefiting other related markets significantly especially in the markets of integrated facilities management (IFM), building automation systems (BAS), lighting, and heating, ventilation, and airconditioning (HVAC).

馬來西亞房屋建造市場大步向前，同時也帶動了其他相關市場的發展，特別是綜合設施管理 (IFM), 樓宇自動化系統 (BAS), 照明及暖通空調 (HVAC) 市場。

● IFM – This service market is becoming popular in Malaysia, with an increase of about 15 to 20 percent market revenue in 2008 and 2009. This is attributed to the increasing awareness of the benefits of IFM among building owners and property developers. Most of this demand comes from the non-residential sector, accounting for about 60 percent of total demand. The market is currently dominated by foreign IFM providers. However, this trend is changing as the number of local participants is increasing with increasing demand. ● IFM—這一服務市場在馬來西亞日漸紅火，2008 年和 2009 年的市場收入增長率高達 15%-20%，其原因在於業主和地產商對於 IFM 好處認識的提高。該市場的需求大多來自非住宅領域，約佔總體需求的 60%。目前 IFM 市場基本由海外供應商一統天下，但這種局面不會持續太久，因為隨著需求增長，國內供應商的數量亦在上升。

● BAS – Smart buildings are gradually gaining acceptance in the building construction industry, representing a huge potential for growth in the BAS market. This growth is also fostered by the increasing number of local ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

BAS suppliers, although the market is currently dominated by international system integrators. With further proliferation of smart buildings or intelligent buildings, and national energy saving campaigns, the BAS market is likely to witness more opportunities. ● BAS—智能建築正逐步得到房屋建造業的認可，這預示著 BAS 市場的巨大發展潛能。儘管該市場目前仍以國際系統集成商為主，但國內 BAS 供應商隊伍的壯大亦不可小覷。隨著智能建築的進一步推廣 , 國內節能運動的進一步深入，必將為 BAS 市場帶來更大的發展空間。

● Lighting – Adoption of energy efficient buildings requires the lighting industry to design innovative lighting control systems which ensure efficient use of energy. Government agencies are increasingly relying on energyefficient lighting fixtures such as fluorescent fittings (T5), light emitting

diode (LED) fittings, and metal halide floodlights. Currently, there are no regulations affecting the lighting fixture market of Malaysia; however, the government is aggressively campaigning for the use of energyefficient lighting fixtures on both new and old buildings. Additionally, Pusat Tenaga Malaysia (PTM) expects that more energy-efficient lighting fixtures would be made available in the country with competitive prices and made available in residential building projects. ● 照明—節能建築需要照明行業設計出新型照明控制系統，以確保能源的高效利用。政府機構越來越依賴節能照明燈具，如熒光裝置 (T5), 發光二極管 (LED) 裝置和金屬鹵化物泛光燈等。目前，馬來西亞燈具市場尚無相關法規；但政府正展開積極宣傳，希望新老樓宇一概採用節能照明燈具。另外，馬來西亞能源中心 (PTM) 預計，該國將生產出更多物美價廉的節能照明燈具，供住宅樓宇工程使用。

● HVAC – The market has been growing between 6 to 7 percent annually with an increased use of air-conditioning units in the residential sector. This growth is being boosted by the incorporation of these units in new residential build-

Economy

buildings are being increasingly automated and built using green concepts.

能夠在房屋建造市場獲得成功，主要取決於市場參與者融合綠色節能概念等各種解決方案的能力 , 財務實力 , 工人的熟練程度以及技術部署。無論是土木設計，還是機械工程，各種解決方案均能完美組合，這樣的市場參與者必將獲得更多商機。目前服務集成方面的專業人才稀缺，在這個越來越多的新樓宇採用自動化技術和綠色概念的時代，這可謂是一大硬傷。|AT|

ing construction, and the increasing use of electronic air cleaners. On the other hand, the demand for HVAC systems is continuously stable from both new construction and retrofit projects of commercial buildings. The energy efficiency principle is currently being applied in modern air conditioning units, with more improvements expected. Currently, it is increasingly common to have HVAC systems using carbon dioxide sensors and heat recovery wheels to reduce the cooling load of fresh air intake. ● HVAC—自空調機組大量應用於住宅領域後，HVAC 市場每年以 6%-7% 的速度增長。隨著這些機組被納入新住宅樓宇建造工程，以及電子空氣清潔器的普及，增速有望進一步提升。另一方面，新建築和商用大廈改造工程對 HVAC 系統的需求持續穩定。現代空調機組廣泛使用節能技術，預計還將有進一步改進。目前，將二氧化碳傳感器和熱回收輪應用到 HVAC 系統中，以減少新鮮空氣入口冷負荷的技術已司空見慣。

Conclusions 結語 2008 and 2009 have been challenging years for the building construction market in the face of a major economic crisis, but the Malaysian market has remained stable. Demand for new commercial and industrial buildings remains sturdy, while new constructions of institutional buildings such as schools and hospitals are almost consistent with the government’s commitment in its education and healthcare policies.

面對重大經濟危機，2008 年和 2009 年的房屋建造市場經受著重重挑戰，但馬來西亞市場卻能險中求穩。在新的工商業樓宇需求保持強勁的同時，由於政府加大對教育和醫療政策的投入，學校和醫院等公共服務設施的新建需求亦有上升。

Despite the seemingly challenging times, market segments such as lighting, HVAC, and BAS enjoyed stable revenue streams from the supply of systems and products for building retrofitting activities, and after-sales services. The IFM market experienced growth as building owners saw the benefits in outsourcing the maintenance of buildings. IFM services are usually associated with operation cost improvements. The building construction market is expected to improve in 2010 with positive growth, before gaining full momentum in 2011.

這段時期看似艱難萬分，但照明 ,HVAC 和 BAS 等市場領域透過為房屋改造工程供應系統和產品以及售後服務，一直享有穩定的收入來源。在業主們逐漸嘗到樓宇維護外判的甜頭後，IFM 市場亦得以升溫。 IFM 服務通常十分看重經營成本的改善。房屋建造市場預計將在 2010 年止跌回升，於 2011 年全面加速。

Success in the building construction market largely depends on the market participants’ ability to integrate solutions including green and energy-efficient concepts, financial strengths, a skilled workforce, and technology deployment. The skill to integrate solutions from civil design to electro-mechanical works throws open several opportunities to market participants. Currently, such expertise in service integration is sorely lacking. This is a huge handicap at a time when new

This article was authored by: Melvin Leong, Consultant, Asia Pacific Environmental & Building Technologies Practice, Frost & Sullivan.

本文作者：Melvin Leong（Frost & Sullivan亞太環境和建築技術市場顧問）

伴，致力幫助客戶快速成長，使其成長力,創新力和領導力達致同類最佳。公司的「成長夥伴服務」為首席執行官及其成長團隊提供嚴格的研究和最佳實務模型，以推動制定,評估和實施有力的成長策略。Frost & Sullivan在六大洲設有四十家辦事處，從業四十五年以來，我們發揮豐富經驗為廣大客戶群體提供服務，其中既有世界1000強企業，又有新興企業和投資機構。欲加入我們的成長夥伴計劃，敬請訪問http://www. frost.com。

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

越南綜合設施管理 Integrated Facilities Management in Vietnam

作者/by Ranajay Dasgupta

Overview of Vietnam’s current Integrated Facilities Management (IFM) Services Market

淺談當今越南綜合設施管理(IFM)服務市場 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Economy

The market for IFM services

in Vietnam is at a very early stage of development. Facility management (FM) is generally regarded as routine cleaning and maintenance services of buildings that are performed by hiring cheap local cleaning contractors. In terms of customer awareness and market participation, Vietnam lags behind its South East Asian counterparts such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. 越南綜合設施管理服務市場猶如一片待開墾的處女地。設施管理 (FM) 一般被理解為是大廈的常規清潔及維護服務，通常聘用本地要價較低的清潔公司完成。在客戶意識及市場參與度方面，越南大大落後於馬來西亞 , 新加坡 , 印尼等東南亞國家。

participants vary from large domestic and international companies to small cleaning and maid agencies. Homegrown Pan Pacific Corp. is the largest cleaning service provider in Vietnam. International FM companies such as ADEN Services and P.Dussman Vietnam Co. Ltd have limited market share in cleaning services but are more dominant players in other FM services such as catering and remote site management.

越南的設施管理服務市場以單一服務供應商為主，而單一服務供應商又以清潔公司為主。市場高度分散，水平參差不齊，既有國內外的大型企業，又有小型清潔女傭中介。土生土長的 Pan Pacific Corp. 是越南最大的清潔服務供應商，而 ADEN Services,P.Dussman Vietnam Co. Ltd 等國際設施管理公司對清潔服務市場投入有限，主攻配餐 , 遠郊管理等其他設施管理服務。

The market for outsourced FM services can be split into 2 typical types of service: single services and integrated services. Single service providers offer services within one service sphere only whereas integrated service providers offer services in multiple service spheres and in some cases, manage all the functions related to the facilities.

設施管理服務外判市場可分為兩大類：單一服務與綜合服務。單一服務供應商僅提供單個服務範疇的服務，而綜合服務供應商則提供多個服務範疇的服務，甚至一手包攬與設施相關的所有管理職能。

Single service providers, that are mainly cleaning companies, dominate the FM services market in Vietnam. The market is highly fragmented and industry

FM Scope FM範圍

支援服務 Support Services

Integrated FM Services 綜合設施管理服務

Though the top–tier global real estate service providers such as CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle and Colliers International are present in Vietnam, most of these companies are yet to start offering IFM services in the country.

雖然 CBRE,Jones LangLasalle,Colliers International 等全球一流房地產服務供應商均在越南設有辦事處，但大多還未推出綜合設施管理服務。

Good potential for growth in IFM services in Vietnam 越南綜合設施管理服務市場前景廣闊

The fledgling IFM services market in Vietnam has strong potential for growth due to a variety of independent as well as interrelated factors. Though the global financial crisis has taken its toll on the building construction industry, the amount of floor space being added, especially in the commercial office sector, continues to increase significantly from the ongoing projects. Ho Chi Minh City is set to see

大廈運作與維護

Building O&M

物業管理 Property Management

Single Service 單一服務

環境管理 Environmental Management

IT & 電訊 IT & Telecomms Source: Frost & Sullivan 資料來源：Frost & Sullivan

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

Cost is the single most important criteria for outsourcing FM operations to third party service providers in most cases growth opportunity for IFM service providers.

a three-fold increase in Grade A office space in the period 2009-2011. Close to 200,000 sq. m. of Grade A and B office space was added in Hanoi in 2009. New office buildings are expected to be more technologically advanced and are required to adhere to stringent environmental norms. Professionalism in facility management is expected to increase and the trend to outsourcing to IFM services providers can grow in the process.

與亞洲其他國家的發展趨勢一樣，越南綜合設施管理服務需求將主要來自在國內設置辦事處的大型跨國公司。隨著越來越多跨國公司來到越南，越來越多金融服務 ,IT 和電訊公司的湧入，展現在綜合設施管理服務供應商眼前的是一個頗具成長潛力的市場。

The rise in pollution is a burning issue in Vietnam that has led the government to temporarily stop the development of industrial parks in certain provinces. All industrial facilities need to have adequate water and waste treatment facilities. IFM service providers with consultative skills in energy and waste management can expect a potential growth opportunity.

除上述三大因素之外，非核心業務的外判趨勢亦將刺激對第三方綜合設施管理服務的需求。然而越南目前還只停留在聘用

tinationals setting up offices in Vietnam. With an increasing presence of multinationals, especially in the financial services, IT and telecom sector, there is a potential

Apart from the above three factors, the increasing trend to outsource non-core operations by the businesses is expected to increase the demand for third party

國內清潔服務供應商的階段。綜合設施管理服務供應商如何將自己與常規清潔服務供應商區別開來，如何立足市場，這是一個值得關切的問題。

羽翼未豐的越南綜合設施管理服務市場前景廣闊，其原因看似各不相干，但又彼此關連。雖然全球經濟危機為房屋建造業敲響了警鐘，但新竣工樓面面積卻持續快速增長，尤其是商用寫字樓領域。預計 2009-2011 年胡志明市的甲級寫字樓地方將增長三倍，2009 年河內甲級和乙級寫字樓地方將增加近 200,000 平方米。新寫字樓將採用更先進的技術，需奉行嚴格的環越南的污染問題迫在眉睫，政府暫停境規範。設施管理的專業化程度有望提升，了若干省份的工業園建設。只要有工綜合設施管理服務對外判亦將越來越依賴。業設施的地方，就需要有充足的供水和廢物處理設施，因此能夠提供能源 Following the trend in other Asian countries, the demand for IFM services is 和廢物管理諮詢服務的綜合設施管理 expected to come mainly from large mul- 服務供應商前景可期。

IFM services. However, the trend in Vietnam has so far been to outsource to local cleaning service providers. It remains to be seen how IFM service providers can differentiate themselves from routine cleaning service providers and increase their footprint in the market.

Market restraints that dampen the prospect of growth 制約因素令發展前景蒙陰 While there seems to be a good prospect for growth for IFM services in Vietnam, a number of factors can pose a strong restraining effect. The awareness about the benefits of outsourcing FM services to third party service providers is very low and is likely to remain so in the near future. The preference to manage facilities in-house continues to be high, especially among local companies. Cleaning and security services are generally outsourced to cheap local players. Hence, the trend to engage professional IFM service providers is low. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Economy

Electrical (M & E) services, which can be a significant revenue earner for FM companies, are generally managed by in-house engineers and not outsourced. Customers, especially during current difficult economic environments, have turned price-sensitive and margins for FM companies have typically gone down and vary currently between 5% and 10%.

還有一些問題亦會迫使綜合設施管理服務供應商放棄越南市場。機電服務 (M & E) 可謂是設施管理公司的一個重要收入來源，而在越南這一般是由內部工程師負責，鮮有外判。眼下正值經濟不景氣之時，客戶對價格變得尤為敏感，設施管理公司的利潤空間普遍收窄，目前介乎 5%-10% 之間。

越南的綜合設施管理服務市場前景固然明朗，但亦受制於多種因素。企業對於將設施管理服務外判給第三方服務供應商的益處認識不夠，且短期內可能很難轉變觀點。設施管理自行處理之風盛行，本土企業尤其如此。清潔與安保服務常常交由國內低端供應商打理，聘請專業綜合設施管理服務供應商的意識淡薄。

The strong connections with local companies and the benefit of local market knowledge continue to help homegrown players dominate the FM services market. International IFM companies face challenges to penetrate the market, given they do not enjoy the cost benefits and connections with local government and businesses.

憑藉與國內企業千絲萬縷的聯繫以及對本地市場的深入了解，本土供應商依舊在設施管理服務市場佔據主導。國際綜合設施管理公司一無成本優勢，二缺政商人脈，在開拓市場方面難免碰壁。

Cost is the single most important criteria for outsourcing FM operations to third party service providers in most cases. This short-term vision by the companies almost always leads them to handpick cheap local players for facility maintenance. Local players hire cheap semi-skilled and unskilled labour and hence enjoy

cost advantages over international IFM service providers. Government facilities are managed in-house or by local FM companies (mostly cleaners) that maintain strong relationships and connections with the government. Budget allocation for FM services is low, limiting the opportunities for IFM players.

The challenges explained above can have a relatively strong adverse impact on the potential growth of the IFM services market and hinder Vietnam from being a strong market for IFM services, unlike countries such as Singapore and Malaysia.

上述挑戰將囿制綜合設施管理服務市場的發展潛力，阻礙越南成為像新加坡 , 馬來西亞等國家一樣的綜合設施管理服務大市場。

Prospective growth opportunities 潛在發展機遇在多數情況下，成本是企業判斷是否將設施管理業務外判給第三方服務供應商的 Construction in real estate, rising concern 最重要標準。從短期利益考慮，企業大多 about pollution, and an increase in focus 會選擇便宜的本地設施維護服務供應商。 on energy conservation are expected to 本地供應商聘用非熟練工人和半熟練工人， influence the growth of IFM services in 因此成本比國際綜合設施管理服務供應商 Vietnam. While the trend to outsource 要低得多。政府設施的管理一般由內部消 all types of FM services will grow in the 化，或者派給與政府交往甚密的本地設施 future, the demand for integrated services 管理公司（多為清潔公司）。設施管理服務 is not expected to rise dramatically, at least 預算低，也是限制綜合設施管理服務市場發展的原因之一。

There are other issues that might dissuade the IFM service providers from operating in Vietnam. Mechanical and

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

The current market for

integrated services is less than 1% of the potential FM services market in the next 3–4 years. The banking, IT, and telecom sectors are expected to offer the maximum growth opportunity for IFM players. Growth of IFM services is driven by these sectors in emerging economies such as Indonesia. The industrial sector, especially the oil and gas and power industries, are also expected to drive the growth of the IFM market as businesses start outsourcing their non-core activities, a trend observed in other Asian countries.

房地產業如火如荼，污染問題日益突出，節能意識深入人心，這些都將影響越南綜合設施管理服務市場的發展前景。設施管理服務全面外判是必然發展趨勢，但至少在未來 3-4 年內，綜合服務的需求難見可觀增長。銀行 ,IT 及電訊行業將成為綜合設施管理服務供應商的主要客源，印尼等新興市場的綜合設施管理服務市場正是受到這些行業的推動。工業領域，尤其是油氣及電力行業亦有可能為綜合設施管理市場的發展注入動力，因為在其他亞洲國家的這些企業中已經出現了將非核心業務外判出去的勢頭。

The current market for integrated services is less than 1% of the potential FM services market. While this might be encouraging news to the IFM service providers, the process of gaining foothold in the Vietnam market will be difficult and fraught with various challenges. IFM players need to differentiate themselves from local specialized FM players by creating awareness of the value-added services they can provide

compared to regular cleaning or security service providers. They should highlight their expertise in energy and waste management, best practices benchmarking, and IT-enabled services.

在當下的設施管理服務市場，綜合服務不足 1%。一方面來看，這對綜合設施管理服務供應商當屬利好，但另一方面來看，

越南的市場開發之路必將充滿艱辛與挑戰。綜合設施管理供應商需創造增值服務概念，表明其能提供常規清潔或安保服務供應商所無法提供服務，藉此將自己與國內專業設施管理供應商區別開來。突出自己在能源與廢物管理 , 最佳實踐標桿和服務科技化方面的專長才是綜合設施管理供應商的制勝法寶。|AT|

This article was authored by Ranajay Dasgupta, Consultant, Asia Pacific Environmental & Building Technologies Practice, Frost & Sullivan. 本文作者：Ranajay Dasgupta（Frost & Sullivan 亞太環境和建築技術市場顧問） Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company’s Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO’s Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from 40 offices on six continents. To join our Growth Partnership, please visit http://www.frost.com. Media contact, please email djeremiah@frost.com or carrie.low@ frost.com Frost & Sullivan 是客戶的成長夥伴，致力幫助客戶快速成長，使其成長力,創新力和領導力達致同類最佳。公司的「成長夥伴服務」為首席執行官及其成長團隊提供嚴格的研究和最佳實務模型，以推動制定,評估和實施有力的成長策略。Frost & Sullivan在六大洲設有四十家辦事處，從業四十五年以來，我們發揮豐富經驗為廣大客戶群體提供服務，其中既有世界1000強企業，又有新興企業和投資機構。欲加入我們的成長夥伴計劃，敬請訪問http://www.frost.com。媒體聯繫，請電郵 djeremiah@frost.com 或 carrie.low @ frost.com

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Economy

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company's Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO's Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Our industry coverage includes Aerospace & Defense, Automotive & Transportation, Chemicals, Materials & Food, Energy & Power Systems, Environment & Building Technologies, Healthcare, Industrial Automation & Electronics and Information & Communications Technology. About the Environment & Building Technologies Practice The Frost & Sullivan Environmental and Building Technologies practice provides global industry analysis, market forecasts, and insights into emerging technologies that are designed to help you address current trends and challenges, identify new technologies and take advantage of opportunities for growth. Our global team of industry experts, market analysts, and consultants continuously monitor the vast array of technology and service markets within the Environmental and Building Technologies industry and provides local expertise along with a global perspective. Environmental & Building Technologies Growth Partnership Services subscription coverage: Building Technologies • HVAC&R • Fire & Life Safety • Building Automation Systems (BAS) • Lighting Controls & Products • Performance Contracting • Facility Management (I-FM) Services • Security Controls • Home Automation Environmental Health & Safety • Industrial Gloves • PPE Markets • Gas Detection • Clean Rooms Environmental Management • Soil & Groundwater Remediation • Brownfields • Watershed Management • Recycling / Reuse Markets • Air Pollution Detection & Monitoring Technology Waste Management • Solid Waste • Sludge Handling • Hazardous Waste • Medical Waste • Nuclear Waste Water & Wastewater • Municipal & Industrial Markets • Water & Wastewater Treatment Equipment • Residential Water • Water Security • EWS • Water Quality Monitoring • Outsourcing / PPP, Desalination

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Industry

Mandalay’s Ko-twe

曼德勒的「鴿血紅」

… Gem of an industry in a troubled realm

…深陷困局的緬甸寶石產業

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

作者/by Jack Dixon

Industry

Rubies

It seems that nothing pleasant

can be heard about Myanmar nowadays. Formerly known as Burma, this exotic Southeast Asian country was once a jewel in the British Empire – a fascinatingly exotic land that was the world’s largest exporter of rice; a global supplier of oil; a nation rich with natural and labour resources, producing 75 percent of the world’s teak; and, the wealthiest realm in this corner of the earth. Today, it is sadly dismissed as one of the world’s most impoverished countries with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent – the lowest rate of economic growth in the Greater Mekong sub-region; the globe’s second opium capital at one tip of Asia’s notorious Golden Triangle, producing eight percent of the world’s entire opium production and a major source of narcotics, including amphetamines; an oppressive military state infamous for its blatant human rights violations, including its continued persecution of democracy icon and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi; an economy still rated together with North Korea as the least free in Asia; and, alongside Somalia, ranked as the most corrupt country in the world by the corruption watchdog organization Transparency International in its 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index.

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Industry

this exotic Southeast Asian country was once a jewel in the British

Empire

industries that include agricultural goods, textiles, wood products, construction materials, metals, oil and natural gas, the trade in precious stones continues to flourish. In fact, during a recent annual gem show traditionally held in Yangon (erstwhile known as the capital city of Rangoon), a total of 2,380 gem merchants including 1,484 of 423 companies from 16 countries and regions coughed up $101 million in gem purchases, which broke sales records since the show was introduced 42 years ago. Now held twice every year, the gem shows have earned a total of over 600 million dollars for the country, according to official statistics. And it is the conduct of these gem shows, officially dubbed the Myanmar Gem Trade and Pearly Emporium, which has earned for Myanmar international renown as “Ruby Land”.

然而在惡劣形象的背後，緬甸的寶石產業卻是這個國家的驕傲，猶如「ko-twe」（「鴿血紅」寶石）那絢麗的火紅色彩。緬甸紅寶石以純淨鮮豔而聞名，供應量佔世界的 90%。緬甸亦盛產藍寶石 , 珍珠 , 玉石等，最賺錢的要數紅寶石。國家能發展起來的產業為數不多，有農產品 , 紡織 , 木材加工 , 建材 , 金屬，還有石油和天然氣，最興旺的是寶石貿易。最近在仰光（原緬甸首度）舉行的一場歷史悠久的寶石展銷會上，總共有 2,380 家寶石商參展，其中有 1,484 人來自 16 個國家和地區的 423 家公司，寶石銷售額達 1.01 億美元，刷新了展會四十二年歷史上的銷售記錄。現在展會每兩年舉辦一次，據官方統計，展會迄今已為國家創匯逾六億美元，這就是著名的「緬甸珠寶交易會」，它為緬甸贏得了「紅 licensed to openly sell jewellery with 寶石之國」的美譽。 15 percent tax paid to the government.

今天的緬甸負面新聞不斷。這個特立獨行的東南亞國家，當年曾是大英帝國王冠上的明珠，神奇的土地孕育了世界上最大的大米出口國，物產豐饒，勞動力充裕，盛產石油，柚木產量佔世界的 75%，並且一度是該地區最富裕的國家。然而時至今日，緬甸已淪落為全球最貧窮的國家之一，年均 GDP 增幅只有 2.9%，是大湄公河流域增長最慢的國家。它是世界第二大鴉片產地，僅次於臭名昭著的金三角，其鴉片產量佔世界的 8%，而且是包括安非他命在內的毒品的重要源頭。整個國家處 Needless to say, Myanmar’s rulers 在軍政府的專制之下，人權遭到踐踏，如 depend on sales of precious stones to 著名的民主人物 , 諾貝爾和平獎得主昂山 fund their regime; they had to release 素姬，就被當局常年軟禁。在經濟發展上， their stranglehold on the industry to 跟緬甸為伍的是朝鮮和索馬里，前者是亞洲最不自由的國家，後者在貪腐監督組織「透明國際」2007 年貪腐印象指數中，被評為世界最腐敗的國家。

But behind this unsavoury image, one rare, shining glow the colour of ko-twe or pigeon’s blood is Myanmar’s ruby industry. Supplying 90 percent of world demand, rubies prized for their purity and hue comprise the biggest earner in the country’s total sales of precious stones, which include sapphires, pearls and jades. One of the country’s few remaining viable ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

ensure a continuous inflow of funds. In the early 1980s, the government started taking great strides towards enhancing gem and jewellery sales by opening up its activities through purchases of gems and jewellery from private dealers or owners at acceptable prices. Then, it encouraged privatization by allowing private owners to exhibit their gems for sale at the annual emporiums and those who attained substantial sales success were permitted to open foreign currency accounts at the banks. Also, it started quality inspections of private shops and allowed those who passed to sell their items in foreign currency. Finally, gem trading centres were

Private trading and export of gems has thus become simple and legal for the first time in over 30 years. There’s even a plan to establish a gem and jewellery market named Pyinlan Gem and Jewellery Shopping Centre. To drive the gem mining industry towards greater growth, Myanmar enacted the New Gemstone Law in 1995, which allowed local entrepreneurs to mine, produce, transport and sell finished gemstone and manufactured jewellery at home and abroad. And since 2000, the government has undertaken joint ventures with ten private companies in the mining of gems and jade on a profit-sharing basis.

Industry

世人皆知緬甸的統治者是依靠寶石收入來維持統治。為了吸引外資，他們不得不放鬆對這個行業的管制。早在八十年代初，當局就採取開放措施，通過以公道的價格向民間商人或藏家收購珠寶和寶石，大力促進此類貿易。後來，政府又鼓勵私有化，允許私人業者每年參加展會銷售寶石，當這些人發財後，又允許他們在銀行開設外匯賬戶。同時，政府開始對私人店鋪進行質量審查，凡通過審查者，可以售賣商品換取外匯。再後來又出現了珠寶交易中心，經政府准許，可以公開出售珠寶，並按 15% 的稅率向政府納稅。於是，珠寶的私人買賣和出口三十多年來首次得到法律承認，手續也變得簡單。現在緬甸正在籌建一個名為「賓蘭珠寶玉石貿易中心」的大市場。為了推動寶石開採行業發展， 1 9 9 5 年緬甸頒佈《新寶石法》，允許本國企業主開採 , 生產 , 運輸和在國內外銷售經過加工的寶石和珠寶產品。自 2000 年以來，本著收益共享的原則，政府已與十家私企合作開採寶石和玉石。

Myanmar has three famous gem lands well-known for producing the country’s nine gems – ruby, diamond, cat’s eye, emerald, topaz, pearl, sapphire, coral and a variety of garnet tinged with yellow. One is at Mongshu in Shan state and another at Phakant in Kachin state. But the temple of the very rare ko-twe rubies is at Mogok, a most scenic area consisting of heavily petrified hills rising to a height of 2,347 metres above sea level. Mogok is within the district hosting the nation’s second largest city – Mandalay – Upper Myanmar’s economic hub and the centre of Burmese culture, the fabled city that inspired classic poetry by Rudyard Kipling, books and essays by George Orwell, and songs by Frank Sinatra, the Beatles’ George Harrison,

Gemological circles all around the world choose Myanmar as the one exotic country with the world’s choicest colored gemstones

Robbie Williams and the Eagles, to name a few. But just as Mandalay is legendary, so is Mogok’s ko-twe ruby.

actually glow red and appear as though Mother Nature brushed a broad swath of fluorescent red paint across the face 緬甸有三大寶石產地，盛產九種寶石｜ of the stone. This is the carbuncle of the ancients, a term derived from the glowing 紅寶石 , 鑽石 , 貓眼石 , 翡翠 , 黃晶 , 珍珠 , 藍寶石 , 珊瑚，還有淡黃石榴石。三大產地 embers of a fire… The colour most 分別是撣邦的孟舒 , 克欽邦的帕敢，還有 coveted today is that akin to a red traffic 抹谷。而抹谷便是稀世珍寶「鴿血紅」的 signal or stoplight. It is a glowing red 故鄉，此地崇山峻嶺，蔚為壯觀，最高處 colour, due to the strong red fluorescence 海拔 2,347 米，毗鄰全國第二大城市曼德 of Burmese rubies, and is unequalled 勒。曼德勒是上緬甸的經濟重鎮和文化中 elsewhere in the world of gemstones… 心，她是一座能給人以靈感的城市，在吉 It must be stressed that the true pigeon’s卜林的經典詩篇，奧威爾的小說散文，還 blood red is extremely rare, more a colour 有西納特拉 , 羅比 · 威廉斯 , 披頭士樂隊的 of the mind than the material world. One 哈里森以及老鷹樂隊的歌曲中，都有曼德 Burmese trader expressed it best when he 勒的影子。跟曼德勒一樣，抹谷的「鴿血紅」 said: “Asking to see the pigeon’s blood is 也有傳奇色彩。 like asking to see the face of God.” Gemological circles all around the 緬甸是寶石圈內公認的最上等寶石產地。緬甸紅寶石是鑑定紅寶石的標尺，同樣可 world choose Myanmar as the one exotic 作為標尺的，還有緬甸產的頂級藍寶 , 尖 country with the world’s choicest 晶石 , 橄欖石和翡翠。抹谷的紅寶石自成 coloured gemstones; “Burmese” 一派，正如一位寶石學家所說：「上等的 rubies are the standard by 抹谷紅寶石顏色火紅，閃耀著自然之美， which any ruby is judged, and 寶石表面璀璨奪目。它是來自遠古的紅玉 the case too with top-quality sapphire, spinel, peridot （carbuncle，意即火焰熄滅留下的餘燼） …這種迷人色彩，如同交通信號燈的紅燈， and jadeite jade. But 或是汽車刹車燈的顏色，瑰麗燦爛，因為 Mogok rubies are 緬甸紅寶石都有強烈的紅色熒光，絕非世 readily regarded 界任何地方的寶石可比…必須強調的是， as being in a class 純正的鴿血紅出產極少，世所罕見。一個 by themselves. As one 緬甸商人說得好：想見鴿血紅，無異於想 gemologist described 一睹上帝真容。」 it, “The best Mogok stones MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Industry

Be that as it may, Mogok’s ko-twe rubies, alongside Myanmar’s prized coloured gemstones, face the threat of trade disruption from international powers. The US has branded Myanmar an “outpost of tyranny”, lambasted the ruling military junta for its “extremely poor human rights record”, and accused the military of murders, rape and other torture. Three of its presidents shunned Myanmar’s dictatorship, and President Bush signed a law in 2003 banning the import of Myanmar products. On the other hand, some gem dealer-members of the International Coloured Gemstone Association criticized the US sanctions as “depriving Myanmar’s citizens of economic growth needed to fuel an eventual democracy”, called the

The US has branded Myanmar an “outpost of tyranny,” lambasted the ruling military junta for its “extremely poor human rights record,” and accused the military of murders, rape and other torture

and because nearly all profits go to the ruling junta. 遺憾的是，抹谷的「鴿血紅」，還有緬甸引以為榮的彩色寶石，現在都面臨國際貿易制裁的威脅。美國給緬甸貼上了「暴政前哨」的標籤，指責當權的軍人集團「人 George W. Bush 權紀錄極其惡劣」，指責軍隊是謀殺 , 強姦和暴政之源。三位美國總統都對緬甸獨裁 policy “duplicitous because it punishes 政府嗤之以鼻，布什總統更於 2003 年簽 Myanmar while the US runs trade 署法案禁止進口緬甸產品。另一方面，國 deficits with more repressive regimes 際彩色寶石協會的一些寶石交易商和會員 such as China”, and cited the worrisome 卻批評美國的制裁「剝奪了緬甸人民追求 development for the trade wherein 經濟增長最終實現民主的機會」，稱這政策 “China’s relations with Myanmar have 「是搞雙重標準，因為在懲罰緬甸的同時， expanded greatly since the sanctions.” 美國卻對中國這樣更加專制的政權保持著 In other parts of the world, the European 貿易逆差」，並指出一些貿易上的動向令人 Union escalated its criticism of 擔憂，因為「自從制裁以來，中國同緬甸 Myanmar, threatening to impose further 的關係大大增強」。在世界的另一邊，歐盟 economic sanctions and withdrawing 也提高了批評緬甸的聲調，威脅說倘若軍 economic aid if the military regime 政府不採取措施包容民主，歐盟將實施更 doesn’t take steps toward embracing democracy. Meanwhile, neighbours in the 多經濟制裁和取消經濟援助。與此同時，東南亞國家聯盟中的盟友們也正告緬甸，假 Association of Southeast Asian Nations have advised Myanmar it risks putting the 如還不進行政治改革，集團就有分崩離析的危險。諸如寶格麗 , 蒂凡尼 , 卡迪爾等 group’s cohesion on the line if political 許多歐美珠寶公司都拒絕進口緬甸寶石， reforms aren’t made. Bulgari, Tiffany, 因為有報告說那裏的礦山勞動環境慘無人 and Cartier are among the many US 道。基於這方面的報道，並且鑒於幾乎所 and European jewellery companies that refuse to import Myanmar gems based on 有收入都流入當權的軍人集團手中，「人權觀察組織」也贊成全面禁止採購緬甸寶石。  reports of deplorable working conditions

in the mines, while Human Rights Watch supports a complete ban on the purchase of Burmese gems based on these reports ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

There is hope though at the end of the long, dark Myanmar tunnel. Early last year, Myanmar leaders showed a

willingness to open diplomatic talks with the US to resolve the issues brought up by Americans, especially in regard to political prisoners and human rights. It will be a long process but the world can only remain optimistic about this baby step towards reform. For it will be such a waste to stop the treasures of Myanmar drawing to them the businessmen of modern times, as it did the merchants of Venice centuries ago. To let this gem of an industry reach full potential will require opening up the economy, a vital factor in the development of Myanmar in the years to come. Then the world can truly cherish the magical experience of once more treading the open road to enchanting Mandalay. 值得欣慰的是，曾經暗無天日的緬甸，終於迎來了一線曙光。去年，緬甸領導人展現出誠意，開啟了與美國的外交談判大門，旨在解決美國關注的一些問題，尤其是政治犯和人權。這將是一個漫長的過程，但世界應樂觀以待，這就好比嬰兒學步，慢慢走上改革之路。就像幾百年前的威尼斯商人，天賦異稟的緬甸不該把現代商業拒之門外，那無異於暴殄天物。要想釋放寶石產業的全部潛力，經濟必須更加開放，這將是未來幾年決定緬甸發展的關鍵。希望有一天世人能踏著緬甸的開放之路，領略曼德勒的迷人風采。 |AT|

Tourism

峇里島旅遊業走和諧發展之路

Tourism in the Bali Balance 作者/By Steve Lunt

As one of the world’s most

popular tourist destinations, Bali has often been praised as the “Best Island in the World” by international travel magazines. This paradise island of gods and temples is one of the mainstays of Indonesia’s tourism industry. 峇里島是享譽世界的度假勝地，被國際旅遊雜誌譽為「世界最佳島嶼」。這座在神靈神廟庇佑下的天堂之島，是印尼旅遊業的中流砥柱。

The 2002 Bali bombing was a terrible human tragedy, and a huge blow for its economy: the rate of tourism decreased by 31%. More bombings have followed in Jakarta, and Bali was hit by a second attack in 2005. Yet despite these devastating attacks, concerted efforts to revive Bali’s tourism industry have been successful: improved security measures

and efforts to bring the perpetrators to justice have restored international confidence that Bali is safe. 2002年的峇里島爆炸案是一場人間悲劇，嚴重打擊了經濟：遊客人數驟降31%。後來雅加達又發生多起爆炸案，2005年峇里島再度遇襲。恐怖襲擊過後，人們痛定思痛，齊心協力重振峇里島旅遊業：安保措施全面升級，罪魁禍首得到嚴懲，峇里島的安全重獲國際信任。

Consequently, more than two million foreign tourists visited Bali in 2008 -almost a third of Indonesia’s overall target for that year. And international tourist arrivals in Bali for the seven months to July 2009 were recorded at over 1.2 million -- a growth of around 12 percent over the same period in 2007. 結果，2008年峇里島吸引外國遊客超過兩百萬人，幾乎是印尼當年目標總數的三分之一。2009年7月之前的七個月，抵達峇

里島的國際遊客人數達到創紀錄的120萬人，比2007年同期增長12%左右。

Balinese tourism operators and government officials have been sufficiently encouraged by these figures to say that Bali’s tourism industry has not only fully recovered from its near collapse in the aftermath of the bombs, but even surpassed its pre-bombings growth rate. Moreover, this strong performance continued despite the global financial crisis and H1N1 pandemic. 這些數字足以令峇里島的旅遊業者和政府官員鼓足底氣說，峇里島旅遊業不僅徹底走出爆炸案過後慘淡經營的局面，甚至已超越爆炸案之前的增長速度。更可喜的是，就連席捲全球的金融危機和H1N1流感亦未能阻擋峇里島前進的腳步。

But the rapid growth of development in tourism has had a big impact and influence on Balinese tradition and lifestyles. Local MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Tourism

as the widespread conversion of paddy fields and beautiful landscapes into construction sites for hotels and villas.

observers believe its tourism industry has been overdeveloped, with some Indonesian media commentators even going so far as to say that Bali is on the brink of destruction, due to mismanagement in tapping its local potential. They argue that tourism, which initially functioned merely as a supporting sector, has been excessively developed -while agriculture, formerly the backbone of the island’s economy, has been neglected or even sacrificed for the sake of tourism. They point to examples, such

然而，旅遊業的飛速增長卻給峇里人的古老傳統和生活方式帶來了巨大衝擊和影響。本地觀察人士認為峇里島的旅遊業開發過度，更有印尼媒體評論員尖銳指出，因為對自身潛能管理不善，峇里島已瀕臨毀滅的邊緣。他們說當初旅遊業不過是一個輔助產業，但是現在已經開發氾濫，從前作為島上經濟支柱的農業卻被冷落，甚至為了旅遊業而不惜犧牲農業，比如大片的農田和優美的山水，現在都變成了酒店和別墅的建築工地。

Bali may still be the icon of Indonesian tourism, but according to a senior Indonesian economist, Professor Dr. Emil Salim, it is destined to lose its true bearings as a religious, cultural, and nature destination, which will result in a decline in the quality of international tourists drawn to the island. 峇里島是印尼旅遊業的象徵，但印尼資深經濟學家和教授埃米爾•薩利姆博士卻認為，峇里島註定將會失去它作為宗教,文化和自然勝地的真正內涵，隨之而來的必然是前來島上觀光的外國遊客質素的下降。

Dr. Salim is an advisor to President Yudhoyono, and a respected Indonesian elder statesman. He is a UStrained economist, who held four cabinet portfolios between 1971 and 1993. Dr. Salim also advises the World Bank, which lists him as an “Eminent Person”. 薩利姆博士是蘇西洛總統的顧問，是國內德高望重的老一輩政治家。作為曾在美國深造過的經濟學家，他於1971年至 1993年四次入選內閣。薩利姆博士亦是世界銀行的顧問，世行稱他是「顯要人物」。

Speaking at a workshop on tourism held recently in Bali, Dr. Salim warned: “If seen solely from the quantity of tourists coming to Bali in the last few years, there has ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

certainly been an increase, but the income derived from each tourist as measured in money spent, and length of stay is still far below the corresponding numbers from Malaysia. This is because Bali has lost its character and bearings, otherwise often referred to as ‘branding’”. 最近在峇里島舉行的一次旅遊業研討會上，薩利姆博士警告說：「過去幾年前來峇里島的遊客數量確有增長，但是從人均消費看，每名遊客所產生的收入，以及停留時間依舊遠遜馬來西亞。這是因為峇里島喪失了它的個性和內涵，換言之就是『徒有其表』。」

The Bali Tourism Board claims: “It is the Balinese civilization that makes the island different from other destinations.” But in reviewing the current state of tourism to the island, Dr. Salim referred to a popular dish of mixed blanched vegetables served with

They argue that tourism, which initially

functioned merely as a supporting sector, has been excessively developed

a peanut sauce, saying: “Tourism, as it is currently developing in Bali, has become ‘gado-gado tourism’ that calls on a wide assortment of tourist attractions. This is very different from Malaysia with promotes ‘Truly Asia,’ India with its ‘Incredible India,’ and Singapore with its ‘Uniquely Singapore.’ This is the reason Indonesian tourism is being left behind.” 峇里島旅遊局說「峇里文明讓這座島嶼與眾不同。」然而談及峇里島旅遊業的現狀，薩利姆博士用花生醬拌蔬果拼盤這道美食做個比方，他說：「現在峇里島的旅遊業已經成為『大雜燴』，景點繁多，眼花繚亂，這與馬來西亞所宣揚的『亞洲真本色』,印度倡導的「不可思議的印度」, 還有新加坡打造的『獨一無二的新加坡』都大相徑庭。印尼的旅遊業之所以落於人後，原因就在於此。」

Dr. Salim said he hoped Bali’s tourism would focus on quality, spending, and length of stay – rather than merely pursuing quantity: “We do not need to pursue tourists on the basis of quantity

印尼前任文化和旅遊部長阿迪卡贊同薩利姆博士的觀點，他呼籲人們恪守「三界和諧」，把宗教,文化和自然結合在一起，作為開發峇里島旅遊業的方針。

Ardika said: “The main asset of Bali tourism is the culture of Bali itself. Because of this, let us all work together to protect and preserve that which draws tourists to Bali.” – because quantity without quality will result in a loss of concern for the environment. Make religion, culture, and nature as the identity or character of Bali tourism. Bali will obtain quality tourists through staying faithful to the concept of ‘Tri Hita Karana.’” 薩利姆博士說他希望峇里島的旅遊業注重質素,消費，還有停留時間，而不要只盯著數量：「我們沒必要過分追求遊客人數，因為『有量無質』的結果必然是對環境的忽視。要把宗教,文化和自然作為峇里島旅遊的特色或象徵。惟有恪守『三界和諧』的信念，峇里島才能引來高質素的遊客。」

The central theme of Bali’s civilization is that life should always be related to the tripartite model of “Tri Hita Karana” – a spiritual relationship between God, humans, and their natural environment. 峇里文明的中心思想是生命中貫穿「三界和諧」的觀念，即神,人與自然三方和諧共處。

Indonesia’s former Minister of Culture and Tourism, I Gede Ardika, supported Dr. Salim’s speech by calling for adherence to Tri Hita Karana and the need to consolidate religion, culture, and nature as the benchmarks in developing the island’s tourism. Indonesia’s former Minister of Culture and Tourism, I Gede Ardika, supported Dr. Salim’s speech by calling for adherence to Tri Hita Karana and the need to consolidate religion, culture, and nature as the benchmarks in developing the island’s tourism.

阿迪卡說：「峇里島旅遊業的資本就是峇里本身的文化。所以，讓我們一起保護和保存峇里島賴以吸引遊客之處。」

Tourism leaders in Bali have tried to encourage this approach by arranging events such as the Tri Hita Karana Tourism Awards, for businesses who strive to promote balance and harmony in the relationship between God, society and nature. 峇里島旅遊業的領導者們舉辦了各類活動來宣揚這些理念，像「三界和諧旅遊獎」便是一例。該獎項旨在表彰為促進神,社會和自然三界和諧共處作出貢獻的企業。

The Balinese Food Festival in 2009 celebrated traditional drinks and food, which had to be specially prepared according to health and presentation standards. Each participant had to prepare a typical Balinese menu, with a customized decoration as the theme. Wayan Siana, Chef at the Four Seasons Hotel in Jimbaran, said: “With the theme of Tri Hita Karana, we try a unique way. We choose the old style of food, digging into the culinary history of our ancestors to bring it to life once again.” 峇里美食節融匯了各色傳統美食佳餚，營養健康，色香味俱佳。參賽者需做出地道的峇里菜餚，並要精心點綴以突出主題。金芭蘭四季酒店的廚師夏納說：「我們試圖以別具一格的方式，展現『三界和諧』的主題。我們選擇古老的菜餚，並從祖先的烹製技藝中汲取靈感，令它重煥生機。」

Bali’s tourism chiefs also have more reason to celebrate following the UN’s recent selection of their island as the site for a new green tourism

Tourism

project. The United Nations World Tourism Organization has chosen Bali for a pilot project to develop environmentally friendly tourism. 最近峇里島又迎來喜訊，它被聯合國選為一個新型綠色旅遊項目的基地。聯合國世界旅遊組織選中峇里島來實施一個旅遊環保開發試點項目。

Geoffrey Lipman, the UNWTO assistant secretary general, said Bali was chosen because of its local wisdom regarding the balance between mankind, nature and spirituality. The question now, according to Lipman, was how to apply this wisdom to meet actual challenges – such as climate change – that could damage the environment. Although Bali’s natural environment was relatively well preserved thanks to the intimate relationship between its people and nature, it was still at risk, especially without proper planning, he said. Lipman confirmed his agency would work to help Bali in meeting these challenges: initially, the UNWTO would analyze the island’s problems and needs, including such issues as alternative energy sources and natural conservation. It would also try to help Bali secure financial support from international donors, such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. 世界旅遊組織副秘書長李普曼表示，之所以選擇峇里島，是因為它追求神,人與自然和諧共處的傳統智慧。李普曼說，當前的問題是如何發揮這智慧來應對現實的挑

戰，比如氣候變化，這些挑戰對環境構成威脅。他指出，得益於當地人與自然之間的親密關係，峇里島的自然環境保持得比較好，但是對於風險，尤其是規劃不善的風險，決不能掉以輕心。李普曼說他所在的組織將會幫助峇里島應對這些挑戰：首先，世界旅遊組織將分析島上的問題和需求，比如替代能源和自然保護。它還會嘗試幫助峇里島從國際上如世界銀行,亞洲開發銀行獲得資金援助。

And Bali’s tourism leaders can also take heart from the latest

2009 figures, which record the highest year-on-year increases Lipman said it was for tourists coming from China, France, and Australia -- of necessary to implement about 55 percent, 40 percent and 39 percent respectively. the green tourism concept as part of a green With a strong domestic demand, loyal economy: “The concept encompasses repeat visitors from Japan, Europe and reduction of carbon dioxide production, Australia – and potential new markets environmentally friendly investment, the such as China, India, and Russia – analysts use of alternative energy, preservation of at Jones Lang LaSalle in Indonesia say biodiversity and other issues.” 李普曼說把綠色旅遊理念作為綠色經濟 the Bali tourism industry is expected to 的一部份加以推廣很有必要：「這個理念 outperform other markets globally.

涵蓋了二氧化碳減排,環保投資,使用替代能源,保護生態多樣性等方方面面。」

Bali Governor I Made Mangku Pastika expressed his hope that the nomination would strengthen the island’s reputation as an environmentally friendly tourist destination. He hoped tourists who visited Bali would be those who appreciated the preservation of the natural environment and culture. Pastika said the nomination challenged all Balinese people to reconsider nature and its preservation. 峇里省省長帕斯迪卡希望這次入選可以提升峇里島作為綠色旅遊勝地的知名度，並希望前來峇里島觀光的遊客能理解當地保護自然環境和文化的一片苦心。帕斯迪卡說，這次入選引發了全體峇里人民對於自然和自然保護的反思。

And Bali’s tourism leaders can also take heart from the latest 2009 figures, which record the highest year-on-year increases for tourists coming from China, France, and Australia – of about 55 percent, 40 percent and 39 percent respectively. 2009年的統計數據令峇里島旅遊業界鼓舞，來自中國,法國和澳洲的遊客人數年比增幅創歷史紀錄，分別達到55%,40%和 39%。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

因為有旺盛的內需，有日本,歐洲和澳洲的回頭客，還有中國,印度和俄羅斯等新興市場，仲量聯行駐印尼的分析師認為，峇里島的旅遊產業可望領跑全球。

They also highlight additional factors contributing to the continued growth of Bali’s tourism: improved aviation safety standards recently enabled the EU to lift its two-year ban on selected Indonesian carriers, including Garuda Indonesia; new luxury hotel developments such as St. Regis and the Banyan Tree will reinforce Bali’s positioning as a destination favored by affluent travelers; and the country’s political stability under a strong government is conducive to the continuation of sustainable infrastructure developments – which should help to preserve a healthy, green and prosperous balance for Bali’s tourism. 他們還列舉了一些有利於峇里島旅遊業持續發展的因素：隨著近期航空安全水準的提升，歐盟解除了對於嘉魯達航空等若干印尼航空公司為期兩年的禁令；包括瑞吉酒店,悅榕酒店在內的新豪華酒店相繼開發，鞏固了峇里島在富裕遊客心目中的地位；國家在強有力的政府領導下政局穩定，確保基礎建設持續進行。凡此種種，皆有利於峇里島旅遊業的健康,環保,繁榮發展。|AT|

Economy

作者/by Emilio T. Antonio, Jr., Ph. D.

Speculations about economic

bubbles brewing (and possibly about to pop) in China have surfaced once again. Comparisons are being made with Japan of two decades ago, that is, rapid expansion of the real estate sector accompanied by fast increases in real estate prices and leverage. With Shanghai ranking among the cities with the highest increase in vacancy rates from 2007 to 2008, the speculative embers get even more vigorously fanned. 有關中國經濟正在醞釀泡沫（可能即將湧現）的揣測再度甚囂塵上。人們把中國跟廿年前的日本相提並論：房地產業飛速擴張，樓價飆漲，槓桿激增。隨著上海躋身 2007 年至 2008 年房屋空置率增幅最大的城市，投機之風死灰復燃。

credits (public and private) to GDP is at 160% and estimated to reach 200% by 2011. These are very similar to Japan of 1991. With aggressive government spending and continued inflows of foreign investments, the Chinese economy is flush with liquidity raising the specter of possible overheating. True, economic growth has been resilient (3rd quarter of 2009 at 8.9% year-onyear) despite the global economic crisis. Nevertheless, some argue that this was largely due to an unusually large monetary and fiscal stimulus China has put in place to offset the slowdown in the world economy. Clearly, this strategy is not without costs. The government is expected to post deficits anywhere between 3 and 4 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010 and this has raised questions marks on the sustainability of such strategy.

結合其他的宏觀經濟統計，悲觀主義者們憂心忡忡。據估計，中國現有公共債務 8,400 億美元，表外債務可能有 1.5 萬億美元 1。已發放貸款（公營和私營部門）與

GDP 之比為 160%，估計 2011 年可達 200%，這跟 1991 年的日本何其相似。政府大力開支和外資持續流入下，中國經濟體系流動性氾濫，過熱風險上升。雖然經濟增長（2009 年第三季同比增長 8.9%）抵禦住全球危機，但是有觀點認為，這在頗大程度上歸因於中國在世界經濟放緩時採取了罕見的大規模貨幣和財政刺激措施，而這種策略終究要付出代價。2009 年和 2010 年，預計政府赤字將達到 GDP 的 3-4%，不知這種策略還能維持多久。

China and the ASEAN 中國與東盟 Given the size of the Chinese economy, the possibility of a bubble bursting and the ensuing prolonged economic slump 1 Figures on China´s economy are quoted from the IMF World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (October, 2009) and the World Bank China Quarterly Update (November, 2009). Figures on ASEAN are taken from the ASEAN Secretariat unless otherwise specified. 1 有關中國經濟的數據均摘自國際貨幣基金組織《世界經濟展望》和《全球金融穩定報告》（2009年10 月），及世界銀行《中國經濟季報》（2009年11 月）。除另有說明外，有關東盟的數據均源自東盟秘書處。

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

2007 年至 2008 年房屋空置率增幅最大的城市，投機之風死灰復燃。

Speculations about economic

Taken together with the other statistics on the macroeconomic front, pessimists have been busy building a doomsday scenario. China has an estimated $840 billion in public debt and potential $1.5 trillion off-balance sheet debt1. Furthermore, the ratio of outstanding credits (public and private) to GDP is at 160% and estimated to reach 200% by 2011. These are very similar to Japan of 1991. With aggressive government spending and continued inflows of foreign investments, the Chinese economy is flush with liquidity raising the specter of possible overheating. True, economic growth has been resilient (3rd quarter of 2009 at 8.9% year-onyear) despite the global economic crisis. Nevertheless, some argue that this was largely due to an unusually large monetary and fiscal stimulus China has put in place to offset the slowdown in the world economy. Clearly, this strategy is not without costs. The government is expected to post deficits anywhere between 3 and 4 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010 and this has raised questions marks on the sustainability of such strategy.

結合其他的宏觀經濟統計，悲觀主義者們憂心忡忡。據估計，中國現有公共債務 8,400 億美元，表外債務可能有 1.5 萬億美元 1。已發放貸款（公營和私營部門）與 GDP 之比為 160%，估計 2011 年可達 200%，這跟 1991 年的日本何其相似。政府大力開支和外資持續流入下，中國經濟體系流動性氾濫，過熱風險上升。雖然經濟增長（2009 年第三季同比增長 8.9%）抵禦住全球危機，但是有觀點認為，這在頗大程度上歸因於中國在世界經濟放緩時採取了罕見的大規模貨幣和財政刺激措施，而這種策略終究 2 B arnett, S. and R. Brooks. 2010. China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption? IMF Working Paper 10/16. January 2010. 2 2010年Barnett, S.和R. Brooks著：China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption? IMF Working Paper 10/16，2010年1月。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Expenditures on

infrastructure, on the other hand, can be expected to improve the economy’s

productivity.

要付出代價。2009 年和 2010 年，預計政府赤字將達到 GDP 的 3-4%，不知這種策略還能維持多久。

China and the ASEAN 中國與東盟 Given the size of the Chinese economy, the possibility of a bubble bursting and the ensuing prolonged economic slump could easily bring fears to the ASEAN countries. Two concerns are clear: (a) Is the bubble about to burst?; and (b) How would this affect the ASEAN countries?

鑒於中國經濟的規模，一旦其泡沫破滅，而後陷入漫長衰退，東盟各國無疑將感受到唇亡齒寒的恐懼。兩個問題：(a) 泡沫會不會破？ (b) 對東盟各國影響幾何？

The jury is still out on the first question. China has defied similarly dire prognoses many times in the past. In the present

Economy

The government´s fiscal stimulus is seen to continue on to 2010. This might prop up consumption (at the expense of rising debt) until the longer-term impact of better infrastructure on economic activities gets realized. Furthermore, exports are expected to recover and this could take up the slack to keep the economy chugging along at an expected growth rate of 9% in 2010. Consequently, even if the asset price bubble bursts, the prolonged slump similar to what Japan experienced in the nineties may not actually take place in China.

政府的財政刺激將會持續到 2010 年，這將調動消費（代價是債務上升），直到改善後的基礎設施對經濟活動的長期影響開始奏效。加上出口有望回升，經濟將重振旗鼓，朝著 2010 年 9% 的增長目標邁進。所以說，縱使資產價格泡沫真的破滅，中國也不會重蹈九十年代日本長期衰退的覆轍。

China, after all, is a huge economic force in the region and the links between them have grown in the recent years case, there are also indicators that support the opposite view. On the concern about high leverage, for example, the concern could be misplaced. The property boom is being primarily by saving, not bank lending. It is not, therefore, surprising that the banking sector does not appear to be at too much risk because the ratio between the banks´ non-performingloans (NPL) to total loan is at a measly 1.8 percent in the first half of 2009. This is markedly lower than in recent history. In addition, bank provisions for bad loans have been rising.

第一個問題現在還莫衷一是。過去，許多有關中國的可怕預言都未化成現實，這次同樣也有理由支持反方的觀點，比方說擔心過度負債也許就是杞人憂天。現在樓市上漲的動力主要來自儲蓄，而不是銀行放貸。銀行部門並未積累太大風險，2009 年上半年銀行貸款總額之中，不良貸款只有 1.8%，明顯低於歷史水平，同時銀行的壞賬撥備也在增加。

In terms of China’s macroeconomic strategy, it is important to note that part of the stimulus package went into health services (from 0.6% of GDP in 2006 to 0.9% in 2008 and expected 1.2% for 2009) and infrastructure. According to a

recent IMF study2, expenditures on health services should provide a significant boost to consumption (with an estimated output multiplier of 3) by reducing precautionary savings. Expenditures on infrastructure, on the other hand, can be expected to improve the economy’s productivity. Unlike Japan, which was seen as building ‘bridges to nowhere’ in the effort to get the economy out of the slump when the real estate bubble was punctured, China truly needs more infrastructure. Thus, such expenditures are more likely to boost not only present production activities but the future as well.

從中國的宏觀經濟戰略來看，刺激方案有相當一部份投向了醫療衛生（2006 年為 GDP 的 0.6% ；2008 年為 0.9% ；預計 2009 年達 1.2%）和基礎建設領域。最近國際貨幣基金組織的一份研究報告 2 顯示，投資興辦醫療衛生事業可以顯著促進消費，因為這能減少民眾為後顧之憂所作的儲蓄。而投資於基礎建設則有助增強經濟生產力。跟日本不同，中國的確需要基礎設施，而日本則是為了挽救房地產泡沫破滅後陷入停滯的經濟，才不得不去「到處造橋」。對中國來說，這樣的開支對今天的生產活動有好處，對將來也有好處。

ASEAN fear factors 東盟之憂 To the ASEAN economies, however, the mere prospect of a China meltdown could easily raise specter of fears. China, after all, is a huge economic force in the region and the links between them have grown in the recent years. The best way to deal with fears however is to confront them. It would be best to check the facts and examine the magnitudes involved in the relationship.

中國崩潰的可能性雖然微乎其微，但也足以令東盟不安，畢竟中國是本地區的經濟支柱，而且近年來中國與東盟的聯繫也越來越緊密。消除恐懼的最好辦法是直面恐懼，讓我們還原真相，看看雙方關係究竟發展到怎樣地步。

In this connection, three questions are important to consider: (a) how will China’s income be affected by the bursting of the asset price bubbles? (b) how would a slowdown in the

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

imports from these ASEAN countries are quite sensitive to income changes (i.e. they are income elastic). These measures only reflect bilateral relationships and ignore multiplier and dynamic effects. Once these are taken into consideration, the effects could even be bigger.

China’s economy affect its imports from ASEAN?; and (c) how would a reduction in exports to China affect the income of ASEAN economies?

三個問題：(a) 資產價格泡沫破滅對中國的收入影響幾何？ (b) 中國經濟衰退將給中國從東盟的進口造成多大影響？ (c) 對華出口下滑對東盟經濟體的收入影響幾何？

Clearly, the impact of a bursting bubble on the Chinese economy could be significant. At a time when the world demand has been sluggish, China has been depending on its domestic economy to sustain its growth. If the domestic economy also wilts, where else would China derive the strength to sustain its economic energy?

毋庸贅言，泡沫破滅肯定會嚴重打擊中國經濟。當世界需求低迷時，中國靠內需拉動經濟成長，可是如果國內經濟也停滯不前，中國何來動力繼續保持經濟活力？

Tracing the links 唇齒相依 In case of a meltdown in China, would the impact be as severe in the ASEAN economies? China buys goods from the ASEAN. The first magnitude to look at therefore would be the sensitivity of the Chinese demand for these goods to the changes of China’s income. A study conducted by IDE-JETRO in 2006 suggests that, on the average, a 1% change in the GDP of China would have the following effects: Thai imports would change by 3.76%, Malaysia by 4.29%, Vietnam by 4.84%, and the Philippines by 5.16%. In economists’ jargons, Chinese ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

萬一中國崩潰，東盟經濟體所受衝擊有多嚴重？中國要從東盟購買商品，我們先來看看中國的收入變化與其對這些產品的需求之間的敏感度。2006 年 IDE-JETRO 所作的一項研究顯示，平均而言，中國的 GDP 每變化 1% 將會產生以下效應：泰國的進口變化 3.76%、馬來西亞 4.29%、越南 4.84%、菲律賓 5.16%。用經濟學家的話來說，中國從東盟各國的進口對於收入變化是非常敏感的（即需求的收入彈性）。這些數據只是雙邊關係的一個反映，並未體現乘數和動態效應。假如把這些效應考慮進去，那麼影響將會更大。

Next question: How important is China as a market for these countries’ exports? Definitely the magnitudes are significant. The share of China in the export markets of these countries ranges from 7 to 11%. Nevertheless, China is not yet the biggest destination of these countries’ exports. Bigger roles are still played by the US, Europe and Japan as well as the trade they have among themselves.

下一問題：中國市場對各國的出口有多重要？答案無疑是極其重要。中國佔東盟各國的出口份額從 7% 到 11% 不等，但是眼下中國還不是各國最大的出口市場，在它之前還有美國、歐盟和日本，以及東盟各國相互之間的貿易。

Finally, how dependent are these countries on export earnings? This is where a wider variation can be seen. Malaysia and Singapore are highly export dependent. So are Thailand and Vietnam although to a lesser degree. In contrast, the Philippines and Indonesia are more

reliant on their domestic markets than on exports.

最後一個問題：各國對出口的依賴度有多少？在這方面各國差距明顯，馬來西亞和新加坡高度依賴出口，緊隨其後是泰國和越南，反觀菲律賓和印尼則是依賴內需多過出口。

These two measures can now be combined to give us an idea of the relative importance of the Chinese market as a source of income to the ASEAN economies. Quite clearly, the effects of a possible meltdown in China would be more clearly felt in Singapore and Malaysia.

結合這兩點可以判斷出中國市場對東盟經濟體的相對重要性。毫無疑問，假如中國崩潰，新加坡和馬來西亞將真真切切地感受到衝擊。

Summing up, although the threats to China’s impressive economic records are real, a Japanese-style recession in the near future does not seem inevitable. True, there are emerging signals that are similar to those that foreshadowed the slip of the Japanese economy in the nineties. Nevertheless, there are also sharp differences which should caution us from making hasty conclusions. Furthermore, the impact on ASEAN economies in case the bubble bursts would differ. Singapore and Malaysia have more to fear about the aftershocks of such event while the Philippines and Indonesia are likely to suffer less from the fallout.

綜上所述，儘管中國令人炫目的經濟數字背後確有隱憂，但是在可見的將來類似於日本的經濟衰退並非無可避免。誠然，現在中國確實有一些九十年日本經濟下滑時的前兆，不過中日兩國的巨大差異提醒我們不可草率下結論。退一步講，縱然泡沫破滅，對東盟各國的影響也不盡相同。新加坡和馬來西亞受到的衝擊要大一些，而菲律賓和印尼則要小一些。|AT|

Share of China to total exports of ASEAN economies in 2008

Share of Exports to GDP of ASEAN economies in 2008

Contribution of Exports to China to the GDP of ASEAN economies

2008年中國佔東盟經濟體出口總額比例

2008年出口佔東盟經濟體 GDP比例

對中國的出口佔東盟經濟體 GDP比例

Singapore 新加坡

10%

133%

13%

Malaysia 馬來西亞

10%

88%

Thailand 泰國

64%

Vietnam 越南

68%

Philippines 菲律賓

11%

29%

5% 3%

Indonesia 印尼

27%

Country 國家

Business

Pertamina 國家石油公印尼司籌劃上市 Prepares

To Go Public 作者/by Mike Wilson

At a time when so much of Asia is

gearing up for inward investment, it comes as rather a surprise that Indonesia’s largest company has taken so long to claim its share of the money. But then, Pertamina, the world’s biggest producer of liquefied natural gas, hasn’t exactly been a beacon of clarity until now. Its decisions have tended to be taken behind closed doors, its inefficiency has always been legendary, and - until quite recently - it’s been stubbornly resistant to change. Not good. 當幾乎整個亞洲都在如饑似渴吸引外資的時候，很難想像印尼的頭號企業過了這麼久才向資本世界敞開大門。印尼國家石油公司，世界第一大液化天然氣生產商，直到現在它才浮出水面。閉門決策，出奇低效，冥頑不化，這就是它過去的寫照。總之，一無是處。

The Pertamina head office building in Jakarta

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

But all that is now in the past. Well, that’s certainly what Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s government hopes. Indonesia’s reforming president has made great strides in cleaning up Indonesia’s record on inefficiency and corruption since he came to power in 2004; but even so, it’s taken him four years of tough preparation to move the country’s flagship company forward to the point where it can be opened up

to the investment world. So now, finally, with a massive corporate overhaul almost complete, Pertamina is preparing to launch itself onto the financial markets in search of new international funding. 現在，一切都已過去，這無疑也是蘇西洛政府的希望。自從2004年上台以來，這位印尼的改革派總統就大力整治國家的低效和貪腐，但即便如此，他也花了四年時間，才好不容易 MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

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其中的部份資金將通過發行15億美元的債券來籌集，預料將在幾個月內完成。而重頭戲則是公司的股票上市流通，也許採取首次公開招股的形式，初步定於2012年實施。為了給股票流通做準備，印尼國油已經重新註冊為上市有限公司，管理層走馬換將，而且今年底可能就會有幾家子公司先行登陸股市。

把這個國家的旗艦企業做好準備，向投資界敞開懷抱。今天，即將完成全面重組的印尼國油正準備迎接資本市場的洗禮，吸引新的國際融資。 Some of that funding will come from a dollar bond issue of up to US$1.5 billion, which is due to be finalised in the coming months. But the most important development will be the flotation of shares in the core company, probably in an IPO that’s currently pencilled in for 2012. Pertamina has already been re-registered as a listed limited company, in preparation for the flotation; its boardroom has been purged; and by the end of this year it’s likely that we’ll see several of its subsidiaries offering shares on the stock market for the first time.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

A Dark Past 往事不堪回首 It’s really quite hard to express in a few words what an enormous change of corporate culture all this will represent for Pertamina. For most of the last forty years it has effectively been an operational arm of the government, with its senior officials appointed politically and all its finances controlled from within. During the 31-year rule of the corrupt President Suharto (19671998), Pertamina became a private cash cow for the leadership; indeed, as early as 1975, when it first defaulted on its foreign debts, it was already rumoured to have accrued debts of US$10 billion, which would have been equivalent to 30% of the entire country’s gross national product at that time. 企業文化的巨變對印尼國油的意義一言難盡。在過去四十年的歲月裏，它事實上充當著政府部門的角色，其高管均由政府任命，財政大權也掌握在政府手中。在蘇哈托總統掌權的三十一年裏（1967-1998），印尼腐敗叢生，國油成了權貴們自家的搖錢樹。早在1975年國油首次發生外債違約時，就有傳聞說債務總額有百億美元之巨，差不多是當時整個國民生產總值的30%。 By 1999, when Suharto had finally been ousted, Pertamina had a workforce twice the size it actually needed, and its under-investment was truly legendary. Its exploration efforts were puny, its accounts were murky, and billion-dollar holes kept on turning up in the company’s accounts. Even today, Pertamina is making barely US$2 billion a year in profits - barely

5% on its turnover - and its bond issues come with punitively high coupons of up to 500 points above Libor, a symbol of the caution with which the business community still regards its prospects. 1999年蘇哈托下台時，國油的員工中有一半都是冗員，投資嚴重不足，勘探工作停滯，賬目一團亂麻，留下了幾十億美元的大窟窿。即便是今天，國油一年到頭的利潤也只有20億美元，不到營業額的5%。公司發行債券要付出高昂的利息，最高比倫敦銀行同業拆息高出500點，表明市場對國油的前景不太放心。 New Team, New Priorities 新團隊新使命 But those prospects are good, and getting better all the time. Since February

Some of that funding will come from a dollar bond issue of up to US$1.5 billion, which is due to be finalised in the coming months

By 1999, when Suharto had finally been ousted, Pertamina had a workforce twice the size it actually needed, and its under-investment was truly legendary 2009 the company has been led by Karen Agustiawan, an international oil veteran with some 25 years’ experience at ExxonMobil and Halliburton, and with special expertise in exploration and technical development. Mrs Agustiawan hasn’t let the grass grow under her feet: since her arrival the company’s backaccounts have been recalculated and restated in accordance with international stock market norms - as distinct from the rather looser standards that applied to a state agency. 今天的國油正在重煥生機。2009年 2月卡倫·阿古斯蒂亞萬走馬上任，成為國油的新掌門。她曾效力於埃克森美孚和哈里伯頓公司達二十五年之久，於國際石油業界積累了豐富經驗，尤其擅長勘探和技術開發。阿古斯蒂亞萬女士沒有虛度光陰：自她上任以來，公司賬目都按照國際股票市場的標準重新進行核算和列報，擯棄了用於政府機構的寬鬆標準。 Last October the new boss presented the government with Pertamina’s plans for the full IPO, and during the last few

months it’s been finalising the plans for an international floating rate note that will fund a major expansion of the company’s activities. In the meantime, while we’re waiting for the IPO, the company has confirmed that it is to float off shares in some of its subsidiary units - partly to raise cash and partly just in order to get the market interested. (It will also help to boost Pertamina’s credit rating, which currently stands at B+ with Fitch and B2 at Moody’s.) 去年十月，這位新掌門向政府遞交了印尼國油的首次公開招股計劃，這幾個月公司還在醞釀發行國際浮動利率票據，它將為公司的大舉擴張籌集資金。當人們還在等待首次公開招股的時候，公司證實說幾家子公司將要上市，既是為了集資，亦有投石問路，聚攏市場人氣之意。（此舉亦有助提高國油的信用評級，目前惠譽評級為B+，穆迪評級為B2。） Prime candidates for flotation, according to the press office, are Pertamina’s insurance division PT Tugu Pratama Indonesia, its Drilling Services,

Business

and under-diversified. New gas plants are planned in Malaysia and Australia, and US$250 million has been earmarked for geothermal research. Plans are well advanced for a US$200 million LPG terminal in east Java, which may take in gas from Qatar as well as from the local gas fields. And in January Pertamina said that it wanted to buy up ConocoPhillips’ Indonesian oil and gas operations, which are currently on sale with a valuation of US$600-700 million. 阿古斯蒂亞萬女士正全力推進她的投資計劃。2010年國油的資本開支將從37萬億盧比增加到46萬億盧比，其中六成由公司自籌，其餘四成來自外部投資者。公司決心增強煉油業務，目前其日產量僅100萬桶，跟營業額實在不相稱，亦令國油的業務看起來十分單一，不夠多元化。計劃在馬來西亞和澳洲興建新的天然氣廠，還要投入2.5億美元開展地熱研究。東爪哇島耗資2億美元的液化天然氣站項目進展順利，它將儲存產自卡塔爾和國內氣田的天然氣。一月份國油還表示有意收購ConocoPhillips旗下的印尼油氣業務，該業務現正待價而沽，估價6億至7億美元。

For 2010, the government is

Karen Agustiawan IndonesiaEnergyWatch.com

its Geothermal Energy unit, its oil exploration unit PT Pertamina Hulu Energi, and possibly its gas explorer PT Pertagas. 據新聞報道，擬上市的子公司有國油的保險分公司PT Tugu Pratama Indonesia,鑽井服務分公司,地熱能分公司,石油勘探分公司PT Pertamina Hulu Energi，可能還有天然氣開採分公司PT Pertagas。 Mrs Agustiawan is already pressing ahead vigorously with her spending plans. Pertamina’s, capital expenditure programme is set to rise from Rp 37 trillion to Rp 46 trillion in 2010, of which 60% will be funded from the company’s own coffers and the remaining 40% from external investors. The company is determined to ramp up its oil refinery operations - which, at barely 1 million barrels per day, are badly out of proportion to turnover and make Pertamina look rather lopsided

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

looking for a healthy rebound to Rp 25 trillion (around

US$2.8 billion)

Selling the Prospects to the Market 前景決定價值 Will all of this be enough to get the investing public interested? Well, that depends. By the time you read this, we should know more about the yield terms for Pertamina’s latest bond issue - and that, in turn, will give us a better idea of how the market view its prospects. (Early indications are that it would be around 100 basis points tighter than the last time the company raised cash in mid-2009.) 那麼，這一切是否足夠吸引公眾的投資興趣？答案是不一定。當你讀到這篇文章時，也許我們已經知道國油發

行最新一批債券的利率。這是一個很好的指標，可以告訴我們市場如何看待國油的前景。（從先前的種種跡象來看，利率可能比2009年中期公司上次集資時低100個基點。） But in the longer term, investors will probably want to see more diversification. At present, Pertamina’s heavy dependence on core commodity activities is leaving the profit line rather vulnerable to volatility. 2009’s final figure came in at Rp 18 trillion - a disappointing performance after 2008’s Rp 30.2 trillion, and below the 2007 figure of Rp 19.5 trillion. 長遠而言，若要取悅投資者，公司需在業務多元化上多下功夫。現時國油嚴重依賴核心的商品業務，稍有風吹草動就會影響到盈利。2009年的利潤為18萬億盧比，遠遜2008年的30.2 萬億盧比，也不如2007年的19.5萬億盧比。 For 2010, the government is looking for a healthy rebound to Rp 25 trillion (around US$2.8 billion). But if there’s one thing we know for certain about the energy market, it’s that nothing is certain. Instead, everything is likely to hang on how fast and how well the reform process goes. 2010年的盈利有望回升到25萬億盧比（約28億美元）。然而，正如天有不測風雲，能源市場永遠難以預料。歸根結底，一切都取決於改革進程的快慢和順利與否。|AT|

Economy

The Washington Consensus 華盛頓共識作者/by Chris Champion

In 1989, America did a huge favour

to the Third World by creating, and making available gratis to anyone in need of it, a blueprint for economic progress for underdeveloped nations. They called it the Washington Consensus. 1989 年，美國向第三世界國家伸出援手，援助有需要的國家，為欠發達國家制定經濟發展藍圖。該舉措被稱為華盛頓共識。

It was in effect a 10-pronged economic blueprint laid out by by John Williamson, a US economist noted for his opposition to capital liberalisation. The blue print was what Williamson considered should constitute a standard reform package for crisis-wracked developing countries.

美國經濟學家 John Williamson 憑藉反對資本自由化而聞名經濟學界，為該共識起草 10 項經濟舉措。Williamson 認為，該經濟發展藍圖應構成標準改革措施，從而幫助危機四伏的發展中國家重振經濟。

It can be summed up as “stabilise, privatise and liberalise”.

該共識可總結為「穩定化 , 私有化及自由化」。

And there it was, primed, polished and ready to go just as the emerging supereconomies in waiting of China, Brazil and India were moving into a position where they would need it. What good fortune for them! ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

Churchill’s famous lament that, “It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried”?

美國人提出的經濟發展措施備受冷遇，到底問題何在？巴西或中國能否成功擺脫貧困，成為實力雄厚的新興經濟體？ Winston Churchill 曾有名言稱：「除去人類已不斷試驗過的所有其他政府形式之外，民主是最壞的政府形式。」，中國是否最終驗證該觀點的正確性？

John Williamson photo from : www.petersoninstitute.org

在該共識形成 , 完善並準備執行之時，新興的大規模經濟體中國 , 巴西及印度正步入經濟發展的重要階段，似乎該援助方案恰逢其時。真是千載難逢的機遇！

All of which led to a surprise for the Americans: China, Brazil and India ignored the Washington Consensus and went their own way, developing an economic model tailored to their own situation. In Brazil, their model became known as the Brasilia Consensus. The Chinese called theirs the Beijing Consensus. They copied the style of name, but little else.

Williamson’s Washington Consensus has attracted rather more negative responses than positive. It has been attacked by some heavyweight names, including George Soros and Nobel Economics Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, by a swathe of Latin American politicians, and by pretty much every heterodox economist with a megaphone.

Williamson 的華盛頓共識得到的負面回應遠超出正面回應。抨擊該共識的不乏重量級人物，包括 George Soros 及諾貝爾經濟學獎得主 Joseph Stiglitz, 多位拉美政治人物以及幾乎所有非主流的經濟學家。

Objective criticism has followed the attempts by many countries which did implement components of the Washington Consensus reform package due to unclear results. One school of thinking claimed that the reforms, which were supposed to help stabilise

economies, in fact led to destabilisation.

諸多國家執行華盛頓共識的改革方案後效果並不理想，導致客觀的批評之聲四起。有學者認為，該改革計劃的本應幫助發展中國家穩定經濟，實際卻導致不穩定因素加劇。

Things got really ugly when the Washington Consensus was directly blamed for the Argentine economic crisis of 1999–2002, for exacerbating rather than ameliorating Latin America’s economic inequalities, and for being part of the evil axis which was socialism and/ or anti-globalism. Ir didn’t help when Harvard University’s respected Professor of International Political Economy, Dani Rodrik, a scholar not associated with any of the above philosophies, published a paper entitled, “Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion”.

1999 － 2002 年間，阿根廷出現經濟危機，華盛頓共識難辭其咎，陷入四面楚歌，該

但實際情況大大出乎美國人的意料：中國 , 巴西及印度並未採納華盛頓共識，轉而選擇自己的發展道路，設計出符合自身情況的經濟模式。對巴西而言，其經濟模式被稱為巴西共識。中國則將自己的經濟模式稱為北京共識。這兩個國家仿效華盛頓共識的命名方式，但具體內容有所不同。

So what was wrong with the American version that it should be so snubbed? And have the Brazilians or Chinese re-signposted the rocky path out of poverty and into the promised land of economic strength? Have the Chinese, indeed, finally answered Winston ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

措施並未改善拉美經濟不均衡的問題，反而在社會主義及／或反全球化主義方面起到推波助瀾的消極作用。哈佛大學備受尊重的國際政治經濟教授 Dani Rodrik 不受上述各學派的局限，曾撰寫著名論文，題為《再見，華盛頓共識；你好，華盛頓混亂》，令華盛頓共識更加尷尬。

Perhaps the final word of criticism should go to John Williamson himself, who has summarised the overall results on growth, employment and poverty reduction in many countries as “disappointing, to say the least”. He attributed this limited impact to three factors: the Consensus did not emphasise mechanisms for avoiding economic crises; the reforms were incomplete; and the reforms were insufficiently ambitious in terms of improving income distribution.

或許最後的批評聲音應來自 John Williamson 本人，對於多數國家執行該措施促進增長，擴大就業並消除貧困的整體效果，他總結道：「至少是令人失望。」他將失敗原因歸結為三大因素：共識沒有強調避免經濟危機的機制；改革不完整；在改進收入分配方面改革力度不足。

In his paper, Professor Rodrik drew some fascinating comparisons with other models. Pointing to the processes being seen in India and China, he claims there is a factual paradox in that, while China and India moved to increase economic reliance on free market forces to a limited extent, their general economic policies remained the exact opposite to the Washington Consensus’ main recommendations.

The question now is not whether the

Washington Consensus is dead or alive; it is what will replace it.”

Rodrik 教授在論文中將華盛頓共識與其他經濟模式生動對比。談及印度及中國的經濟發展過程時，他認為存在明顯的悖論，儘管中國及印度在有限程度上對自由市場的依賴逐步提高，但宏觀經濟政策卻與華盛頓共識的主要建議措施相悖。

Both had high levels of protectionism, no privatisation, extensive industrial policies planning, and lax fiscal and financial policies through the 1990s. Had they been dismal failures they would have presented strong evidence in support of the recommended Washington Consensus policies. However they turned out to be successes.

the Washington Consensus anymore. The question now is not whether the Washington Consensus is dead or alive; it is what will replace it.”

Rodrik 認為：「儘管支持者與懷疑者的觀點各不相同，目前的客觀情況是，已經無人真正相信華盛頓共識了。華盛頓共識的存亡已不是問題的關鍵，關鍵在於該共識將被何種新措施取代。」

It is a fair bet that, should North Korea or Zimbabwe, for example, acquire a benevolent leader, and should she cast around for guidance in starting the economic recovery process, she will be

在 20 世紀 90 年代，兩個國家都有較高水平的保護主義，不推行私有化，廣泛執行行業政策計劃，實行寬鬆的財政及金融政策。根據華盛頓共識建議的政策，兩國的現行措施很可能導致重大經濟蕭條。而實際情況是，兩國的經濟發展十分成功。

According to Rodrik: “While the lessons drawn by proponents and skeptics differ, it is fair to say that nobody really believes in MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

that countries from Malaysia to Korea are following. His report, he says, “captures the excitement of a country where change, newness and innovation are rebounding around journal articles, dinner conversations and policy-debates with mantra-like regularity”.

Ramo 認為，在華盛頓共識崩潰之後，中國為發展中國家帶來希望，中國提供了更為均衡的發展示範，得到馬來西亞及韓國的效仿。他在報道中指出：「中國的發展令人興奮，無論期刊文章 , 席間交談還是政治辯論，變革 , 進取及創新均是熱議的話題，一切有條不紊。」

tempted to look very closely at the Beijing Consensus.

道中指出，北京共識正不斷演化，「以全新態度面對政治 , 發展及全球力量平衡。」

A detailed report on the Beijing Consensus by China watcher and former foreign editor of Time Magazine, Joshua Cooper Ramo, suggests the Beijing Consensus is evolving, with “new attitudes to politics, development and the global balance of power”.

他認為，「銳意創新 , 堅信主權及多邊主 about the Washington Consensus. 華盛頓共識從未得到如此讚譽。|AT| 義 , 以及渴望積累『不均衡力量規劃』工具」是主要的推動因素。

以朝鮮或津巴布韋為例，如領導者希望在重振經濟之初尋求指引，則很可能密切關注北京共識。

《時代》雜誌原外國編輯及北京共識觀察人士 Joshua Cooper Ramo 在一篇詳細報

This is being driven, he says, by a “ruthless willingness to innovate, a strong belief in sovereignty and multilateralism, and a desire to accumulate the tools of ‘asymmetric power projection’.”

They never said nice things like that

Ramo argues that China offers hope to developing countries after the collapse of the Washington consensus, providing a more equitable paradigm of development

Joshua Cooper Ramo, suggests the Beijing Consensus is evolving, with “new attitudes to politics, development and the global balance of power” ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Energy

After Copenhagen 後哥本哈根時代 – Regaining entrepreneurial impetus

—重拾創業動力作者/by Ricardo G Barcelona

The Copenhagen Climate Change

Conference came and went with a whimper, with supporters and detractors in agreement about its disappointing results. Yvo de Boer, Chief of UN Forum for Climate Change (UNFCC) gave this stark assessment: “The world walks away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly ambitions must be raised significantly if we are to hold the world to 2°C variation in global temperature.”

Yvo de Boer

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

哥本哈根氣候變化大會黯然落幕，無論支持者還是批評者都對大會成果失望不已。聯合國氣候變化論壇負責人德波爾直言：「在哥本哈根，世界達成了共識，可是要想把全球氣溫變化幅度控制在 2° C 以內，無疑需有更高遠的目光。」

While Copenhagen failed to agree global targets for CO2 emissions, I see this outcome as an opportunity to regain entrepreneurial impetus in the approaches to address climate change. Science remains divided on technologies and effectiveness of mitigation measures. As a result, business that seeks to commit funding to climate change investments – bearing any returns and risks – are looking for guidance that is of relevance to their decisions. Unfortunately, such clarity from science is unlikely to be available – now or in the foreseeable future. Such is the degree of uncertainty, where technologies that may prove effective in the next few years are yet to be developed. MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Energy

paper on The Coal Question. Jevons argued that British industrial preeminence was doomed to decline, given that coal could only be mined at ever greater depths and spiralling costs that would “cripple industries dependent on it”. He boldly declared “it is useless to think of substituting any other kinds of fuel for coal”. Since 1865, British industrial pre-eminence, while eclipsed by the United States, remains in the company of prosperous nations. Coal ceded its predominance to technology and fuels that did not exist in 1865.

有關資源稀缺性的新馬爾薩斯主義的觀點，使得全球氣候的爭論偏離了經濟範疇。筆者認為，哥本哈根大會達成了哥本哈根協定，大會雖未成功，但它卻帶來了創業的動力和商機。讓我們回顧一下斯坦利· 筆者之見，企業不能因為這種未知就無傑文斯寫於 1865 年的文章《煤炭問題》。所作為。事實上，各種各樣的可再生能源傑文斯說英國的工業繁榮註定要衰落，因技術完全使我們有理由樂觀，相信一個無碳的未來盡在掌握。不過，鋪就這條未來為煤炭的開採越來越深，成本螺旋上升，終將「拖垮依賴於它的工業」。他甚至大膽之路，不能把希望寄託在各國政府同意實預言，「任何想用其他燃料來代替煤炭的想施全球減排目標，提供無窮無盡的資助和法都是徒勞的」。結果，自從 1865 年以來，補貼，或者是依靠現有的可再生能源技術英國的工業霸主地位的確被美國取代，但培養出幾個本國的領軍企業。根本的解決之道在於因地制宜，發揮企業的創業激情，它卻依舊屹立於強國之林。而煤炭則是風光不再，它的光芒已被 1865 年時並不存在而不是訴諸行政命令。的技術和燃料所掩蓋。 Global climate debates are distracted

COPENHAGEN - DEC 7: Opening Day, meeting at "G77 and China", delegates in the Bella Center at the UN Climate Change Conference on December 7, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

雖然大會沒有議定全球的二氧化碳減排目標，但我卻從中看到重拾創業動力去應對氣候變化的機遇。對於緩解措施的技術和效果，科學界現在看法不一。那些想要涉足氣候變化投資的企業，在收穫回報的同時也要承擔風險，所以他們需要足夠的理由才能下定決心。遺憾的是，至少在目前甚至可見的將來，科學界還不能給出明確的答案。因為有太多不確定因素，沒有哪種技術能保證將來一定奏效。

In the face of this uncertainty, what are the options for business? 前途猶未可知，企業何去何從？ I do not see this uncertainty as an excuse for business not to take actions. In fact, I see in the various strands of renewable energy technologies (RETs) cause for optimism that a CO2 free future is within our grasp. However, the route to this future may not rely on governments agreeing to implement global CO2 reduction targets, provide generous cash and subsidies, or create national champions out of known RETs. The solutions are likely to be local and driven by entrepreneurial prowess, rather than bureaucratic diktat.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

from their economic merits by neoMalthusian views on resource scarcity. For me, the aberration of a failed conference, which produces the Copenhagen (non-) Accord, gives space for entrepreneurial impetus to re-assert itself. We only need to be reminded of Stanley Jevons’1865

Copenhagen Accord 哥本哈根協定 The Copenhagen Accord is a nonbinding letter of intent to avert the catastrophic consequences of climate change. The signatories agreed to take

Energy

any post-Kyoto Protocol (i.e. included only 30% of polluters) agreement potentially includes all the major polluters in the world.

協定的支持者指出，雖然哥本哈根大會的結果令人失望，但仍向前邁出了一大步。首先是美國積極參與，這與其過往的消極（甚至敵視）態度截然相反。因為加入了中國 , 印度 , 巴西和南美國家，所以將來任何的後京都議定書（僅包含 30% 的污染國）協議，都有可能把世界上所有的污染大國囊括其中。

The Fund attracted most attention with donor countries offering to increase the size to $100 billion by 2020. The fund seeks to assist the most vulnerable developing countries to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. To monitor progress, recipient countries undertake to communicate efforts every two years on implementing measures to limit CO2 emissions.

該基金備受矚目，出資國更建議在 2020 年以前把基金規模擴大到 1,000 億美元。基金旨在幫助最不發達國家適應和減輕氣候變化的影響。為監督進度，受援國承諾每兩年彙報其限制排放二氧化碳措施的執行情況。

Supporters of the Accord point out that Copenhagen was a major step forward, in spite of its disappointing results. In the first place, the United States is fully engaged – which is in contrast to its disinterested (if not hostile) stance in the past. With the inclusion of China, India, Brazil and South American countries,

Pao energy futures Marginal cost of CO2 reduction Ͳ 2050 Alternative transport fuels

Marginal cost – US$ / MT CO2

哥本哈根協定是一份不具法律約束力的文件，意在防止氣候變化造成災難性後果。各締約方同意：a) 在 2050 年之前確保全球溫度變化幅度在 2° C 以內；b) 2015 年將研究把目標調低到 1.5 ° C 的可能性；及 c) 今後三年設立 300 億美元的哥本哈根綠色氣候基金。

協定提出減少二氧化碳排放，把溫度變化幅度控制在 2 °C 以內，問題就出在這裏。現在科學界對溫度變化的影響莫衷一是，要

Figure 1.0: Marginal costs of CO2

Pessimistic

Alternative Fuels Ͳ Industry BLUE Map Optimistic

Power sector Energy efficiency

ACT MAP

Annual Reduction of emissions to achieve 450 ppm (Gt) Source: Energy Technology Perspective 2008Ͳ2050. IEA 2008; Iberdrola Renovable

Pao energy futures

圖1.0:二氧化碳減排的邊際成本

Ѡ⇻࣪⺇⏯ᥦⱘ䙞䱯៤ᴀ – 2050ᑈ 䙞䱯៤ᴀ – 㕢‫ ܗ‬/ ⱒ㨀ౌ CO2

note of the following: a) to recognize a 2°C threshold for global temperature variation by 2050; b) a review in 2015 for possible downward revision of the target to 1.5 °C; and c) to create a $30 billion Copenhagen Green Climate Fund over the next three years.

Why the 2 °C solution … and its consequences? 為何是2 ° C？後果如何？ The framing of the Accord on reducing CO2 emissions to limit temperature variation to 2°C is part of the problem. Science is divided on the impact of temperature variation, much less on a precise estimate for 2050. For reasons unknown, political debate zeroed in on 2°C as an objective. For people accustomed to seasonal temperature swings, 2°C variation is no big deal. However, to sustain such a range over a long term average temperature, the costs can be horrendously expensive.

䘟䔌ὁ᳓ҷ➗᭭

ᚆ㾔

᳓ҷ➗᭭ – Ꮉὁ BLUEᚙ๗ ῖ㾔

䳏࡯ 㛑⑤ᬜ⥛

ACTᚙ๗

ᑈ⏯ᥦ䞣 450 ppm (Gt) 䊛᭭՚⑤: Energy Technology Perspective 2008Ͳ2050. IEA 2008; Iberdrola Renovable

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Energy

作出直到 2050 年的準確估計更是天方夜譚。於是 2 °C 就莫名其妙成了政治爭論的靶子。對於習慣了四季更替的民眾來說，2 °C 的變化微不足道。但是，要把長期平均溫度的變化幅度控制在這個範圍以內，所付出的代價是超乎想像的。

Let me illustrate this using data from my lectures on energy scenarios that I outline in Figure 1.0. To achieve the 2°C target, existing technologies would rely on energy conservation and innovation in power generation efficiency to deliver CO2 reduction. However, as higher reduction targets are implemented, the cost of reducing emissions becomes progressively prohibitive.

此處以筆者就能源情境的講座 1 中的數據來對圖 1.0 加以說明。以現在的技術而論，要達到 2 ° C 目標，需要從節能還有發電效率的創新上做文章，以減少二氧化碳排放。然而，隨著更高的減排目標的實施，減排的成本將會越來越難以承受。

Political commitments notwithstanding, the diverging dynamics of national interests may have been under-estimated, if not ignored. During the preparatory meeting in Barcelona, Spain, The Climate Group presented their findings on the impact on long term GDP and employment growth, based on a number of policy scenarios. These scenarios are summarized in Table 1.0. For example, the European Union going it alone would gain the most in additional GDP and employment growth (i.e. vs. no action). What stops the European Union from going unilateral, however, is the potential pain inflicted on other countries such as the United States, Japan, China, India and Mexico. In contrast, global coordinated action benefits all countries – with China gaining the most.

儘管有政治上的承諾，可是各國的利益分歧卻不可小覷。在西班牙巴塞羅那的預備會議上，氣候組織提交了關於不同政策情境對長期 GDP 和就業增長的影響的研究結果。表 1.0 是這些情境的摘要。舉例而 1 Lectures to MBAs and graduate students at IESE

Business School, University of Asia and the Pacific, and University of the Philippines, Los Baños; and senior executives in conferences sponsored by University of Asia and the Pacific; and University of the Philippines Los Baños at Asian Institute of Management, December 2009 and January 2010. 1 對IESE商學院,亞太大學,菲律賓大學Los Baños分校MBA學員和研究生的講座；在亞太大學,菲律賓大學Los Baños分校,亞洲管理研究所舉辦的企業高管會議上的演講；2009年12月和2010年1月。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Table 1.0: Impact on GDP and employment of Climate Change Accord Changes in GDP in 2020 as percent of baseline forecast Policy scenario

EU / US

Japan

Annex 1

China

Annex 1 and China

India

EUͲonly action USͲonly action EU and US joint action All Annex 1 Countries

1.36 Ͳ0.01 0.59 0.55

Ͳ0.31 0.43 0.34 0.32

0.44 0.23 0.45 0.42

Ͳ0.10 0.11 0.02 0.41

0.30 0.20 0.34 0.44

Ͳ0.38 0.02 Ͳ0.07 Ͳ0.07

0.23 0.18 0.30 0.39

Ͳ0.09 0.03 0.04 0.05

Annex 1 and China Ͳ 2010

0.50

0.02

0.24

0.35

0.27

4.88

0.75

Annex 1 and China Ͳ 2015 World (Developing 2010) World (Developing 2015)

0.97 0.75 0.77

0.09 Ͳ0.11 Ͳ0.07

0.49 0.28 0.31

0.53 0.31 0.32

0.51 0.28 0.30

2.66 6.04 3.68

0.73 0.89 0.66

Mexico

World

Ͳ0.54 0.18 Ͳ0.08 0.09

0.15 0.17 0.26 0.33

0.00

0.09

0.63

0.02 0.43 0.32

Ͳ0.29 0.36 0.51

0.63 0.81 0.61

Source: The Climate Group, (2009). Cutting the cost: The economic benefits of collaborative climate action

Changes in Employment in 2020 as percent of baseline forecast Policy scenario

EU / US

Japan

Annex 1

China

Annex 1 and China

India

EUͲonly action USͲonly action EU and US joint action All Annex 1 Countries

0.46 Ͳ0.07 0.15 0.10

Ͳ0.01 0.37 0.21 0.18

0.25 0.12 0.18 0.13

0.04 0.03 0.02 0.16

0.15 0.08 0.10 0.12

Ͳ0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03

0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07

0.05 0.01 0.03 0.03

Annex 1 and China Ͳ 2010

0.09

0.10

0.08

0.61

0.37

Annex 1 and China Ͳ 2015 World (Developing 2010) World (Developing 2015)

0.56 0.16 0.18

0.06 0.08 0.06

0.35 0.12 0.13

0.15 0.13 0.12

0.24 0.12 0.09

0.38 0.59 0.41

0.32 0.38 0.27

Mexico

World

Ͳ0.53 0.14 Ͳ0.05 0.04

0.10 0.04 0.05 0.06

0.05

0.12

0.23

0.04 0.26 0.22

Ͳ0.40 0.17 0.16

0.21 0.38 0.29

Source: The Climate Group, (2009). Cutting the cost: The economic benefits of collaborative climate action Negative Marginal Positive Negative Marginal Positive

Source: The Climate Group, (2009). Cutting the cost: The economic benefits of collaborative climate action

2020ᑈGDP䅞࣪˄෎㎮䷤␀ⱒߚ↨˅ ᬓㄪᚙ๗

ℤⲳ

ℤⲳஂ⤼㸠ࢩ 㕢೟ஂ⤼㸠ࢩ 㕢೟ℤⲳ㙃ড়㸠ࢩ ᠔᳝䰘䣘1೟ᆊ

1.36 Ͳ0.01 0.59 0.55

䰘䣘1ঞЁ೟ Ͳ 2010 䰘䣘1ঞЁ೟ Ͳ 2015 Ϫ⬠ (ⱐሩЁ 2010) Ϫ⬠ (ⱐሩЁ 2015)

㕢೟

ℤⲳ / 㕢 ೟

᮹ᴀ

䰘䣘 1

Ё೟

䰘䣘1ঞ Ё೟

ॄᑺ

Ͳ0.31 0.43 0.34 0.32

0.44 0.23 0.45 0.42

Ͳ0.10 0.11 0.02 0.41

0.30 0.20 0.34 0.44

Ͳ0.38 0.02 Ͳ0.07 Ͳ0.07

0.23 0.18 0.30 0.39

Ͳ0.09 0.03 0.04 0.05

0.50

0.02

0.24

0.35

0.27

4.88

0.75

0.97 0.75 0.77

0.09 Ͳ0.11 Ͳ0.07

0.49 0.28 0.31

0.53 0.31 0.32

0.51 0.28 0.30

2.66 6.04 3.68

0.73 0.89 0.66

๼㽓હ

Ϫ⬠

Ͳ0.54 0.18 Ͳ0.08 0.09

0.15 0.17 0.26 0.33

0.00

0.09

0.63

0.02 0.43 0.32

Ͳ0.29 0.36 0.51

0.63 0.81 0.61

䊛᭭՚⑤: The Climate Group, (2009). Cutting the cost: The economic benefits of collaborative climate action 資料來源: The Climate Group, (2009). Cutting the cost: The economic benefits of collaborative climate action

2020ᑈህὁ䅞࣪˄෎㎮䷤␀ⱒߚ↨˅ ᬓㄪᚙ๗

ℤⲳ

㕢೟

ℤⲳ / 㕢 ೟

᮹ᴀ

䰘䣘 1

Ё೟

䰘䣘1ঞ Ё೟

ॄᑺ

ℤⲳஂ⤼㸠ࢩ 㕢೟ஂ⤼㸠ࢩ 㕢೟ℤⲳ㙃ড়㸠ࢩ ᠔᳝䰘䣘1೟ᆊ

0.46 Ͳ0.07 0.15 0.10

Ͳ0.01 0.37 0.21 0.18

0.25 0.12 0.18 0.13

0.04 0.03 0.02 0.16

0.15 0.08 0.10 0.12

Ͳ0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03

0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07

0.05 0.01 0.03 0.03

䰘䣘1ঞЁ೟ Ͳ 2010

0.09

0.10

0.08

0.61

0.37

䰘䣘1ঞЁ೟ Ͳ 2015 Ϫ⬠ (ⱐሩЁ 2010) Ϫ⬠ (ⱐሩЁ 2015)

0.56 0.16 0.18

0.06 0.08 0.06

0.35 0.12 0.13

0.15 0.13 0.12

0.24 0.12 0.09

0.38 0.59 0.41

0.32 0.38 0.27

๼㽓હ

Ϫ⬠

Ͳ0.53 0.14 Ͳ0.05 0.04

0.10 0.04 0.05 0.06

0.05

0.12

0.23

0.04 0.26 0.22

Ͳ0.40 0.17 0.16

0.21 0.38 0.29

䉴ؐ

負值

䙞䱯

邊際

言，假如歐盟單獨行動，它將是 GDP 和就業增長的最大受益者（相對於不行動而言）。但是，因為其他國家如美國 , 日本 , 中國 , 印度和墨西哥會受到損害，所以歐盟不能單獨行動。相反，如果全球協調行動，那麼所有國家都將受益，而最大的受益者是中國。

The rub in this analysis, however, is in the significant degrees of error. Thus, while directionally, the results give policy makers

While the vision identifies the attractive opportunities, the remedies propose are

less visionary

ℷؐ

正值

some guidance, the pain for inaction is insufficient for countries to take urgent actions. Thus, we are in a stalemate – while the benefits of coordinated actions appear attractive, inaction does not inflict harm thereby allowing countries the luxury to take a “wait and see” stance. In fact, this is the position most countries took giving rise to a paradox – apparently strong political and consumer support failing to translate into policy actions.

這個分析的軟肋是誤差度很高，結果給政策制定者們的啟示就是無所作為的壞處並不足以促使他們立即行動起來。於是我們便陷入這樣一個僵局：協同行動有好處，而按兵不動也沒壞處，所以各國都想「等等看」。正因大多數國家都是如此，一個悖論隨之而來：政治和民意的支持無比強大，但就是無法轉化為政策行動。

Combine this with the heavy commitment for the early movers,

Ricardo G Barcelona – Asian Tigers Investors Report, March 2010 1 Energy 57 After Copenhagen – Regaining entrepreneurial impetus Table 2.0: Levellized Costs of Energy Table 2.0: Levellized Costs of Energy HydroCarbon Gas Ͳ CCGT

Zero CO2 Emission Ͳ Mainstream Power Coal

Nuclear

Hydro Reservoir River runͲoff

LCOE Ͳ $ / kWh

Base

MidͲmerit

Base

MidͲmerit

Base

Capital costs Variable O&M Fuel Regulatory costs

0,0179 0,0009 0,0546 0,0125

0,0304 0,0012 0,0546 0,0125

0,0268 0,0006 0,0167 0,0785

0,0379 0,0007 0,0167 0,0785

0,0419 0,0013 0,0050 0,0209

0,0574 0,0013 Ͳ Ͳ

LCOE Ͳ Capital Ͳ % LCOE Ͳ Variable Ͳ % LCOE Ͳ Total

20,81 79,19 0,0859

30,78 69,22 0,0988

21,84 78,16 0,1226

71,66 0,1338

39,32 0,0691

2,14 0,0587

Geothermal

Zero CO2 Emission Ͳ Emerging Green Power Onshore Wind

Offshore Wind

Solar / PV

Base

MidͲmerit

Class 5/6

Class 3/4

Class 5/6

Class 3/4

Class A

Class B

0,0432 0,0020 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0504 0,0019 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0672 0,0022 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0840 0,0034 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1120 0,0039 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1439 0,0044 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1618 0,0085 Ͳ Ͳ

0,2309 0,0048 Ͳ Ͳ

0,3079 0,0060 Ͳ Ͳ

4,33 0,0451

3,61 0,0523

3,21 0,0694

3,92 0,0874

3,33 0,1158

2,97 0,1483

4,97 0,1703

2,04 0,2358

1,91 0,3139

Ricardo G Barcelona – Asian Tigers Investors Report, March 2010 1 28,34 60,68 97,86 95,67 96,39 96,79 96,08 96,67 97,03 95,03 97,96 98,09 After Copenhagen – Regaining entrepreneurial impetus

表2.0：能源平準成本 Table 2.0: Levellized Costs of Energy 碳氫化合物 HydroCarbon 天然氣-CCGT Gas Ͳ CCGT 平準成本 - 美元/千瓦時 LCOE Ͳ $ / kWh 資本成本 Capital costs 可變營運與維護成本 Variable O&M 燃料成本 Fuel 監管成本 Regulatory costs 平準成本 – 資本 - % LCOE Ͳ Capital Ͳ % 平準成本 – 可變 - % LCOE Ͳ Variable Ͳ % 平準成本 LCOE Ͳ Total – 合計

零碳排放 – 主流能源 Zero CO2 Emission Ͳ Mainstream Power 煤炭 Coal

核能 Nuclear

水能 Hydro 大壩 River runͲoff 逕流 Reservoir

基本 Base

中等 MidͲmerit

基本 Base

中等 MidͲmerit

基本 Base

0,0179 0,0009 0,0546 0,0125

0,0304 0,0012 0,0546 0,0125

0,0268 0,0006 0,0167 0,0785

0,0379 0,0007 0,0167 0,0785

0,0419 0,0013 0,0050 0,0209

0,0574 0,0013 Ͳ Ͳ

20,81 79,19 0,0859

30,78 69,22 0,0988

21,84 78,16 0,1226

28,34 71,66 0,1338

60,68 39,32 0,0691

97,86 2,14 0,0587

rational decision makers are bound to keep their options open. That is, while there appears to be a consensus on the virtues of a cleaner environment, investors cannot put their faith on an outcome that is so uncertain and so far off in time and benefits.

有鑒於此，再加上對先行者需要有豐厚的承諾，理性的決策者絕不會貿然行動。與此同時，雖然環境清潔的益處不言而喻，但因前途莫測，既不知需要多久時間，亦不知收益幾何，投資者也難下決心。

An alternative approach— Taxation and technology choices 另闢蹊徑—稅收與技術的選擇 Erik Rasmussen, founder of the Copenhagen Climate Council, may have identified a way for entrepreneurs to regain the impetus. Over the past two decades, the accelerating growth in renewable energy was because of a combination of generous public support and subsidies, where

地熱能 Geothermal

零碳排放 – 新興綠色能源 Zero CO2 Emission Ͳ Emerging Green Power 陸上風能 Onshore Wind

海上風能 Offshore Wind

太陽能／光伏 Solar / PV

基本 Base

中等 MidͲmerit

5/6類 Class 5/6

3/4類 Class 3/4

5/6類 Class 5/6

3/4類 Class 3/4

A類 Class A

B類 Class B

0,0432 0,0020 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0504 0,0019 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0672 0,0022 Ͳ Ͳ

0,0840 0,0034 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1120 0,0039 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1439 0,0044 Ͳ Ͳ

0,1618 0,0085 Ͳ Ͳ

0,2309 0,0048 Ͳ Ͳ

0,3079 0,0060 Ͳ Ͳ

95,67 4,33 0,0451

96,39 3,61 0,0523

96,79 3,21 0,0694

96,08 3,92 0,0874

96,67 3,33 0,1158

97,03 2,97 0,1483

95,03 4,97 0,1703

97,96 2,04 0,2358

98,09 1,91 0,3139

technological innovation quickens its pace with greater deployment. Thus, Rasmussen observes that “reducing the emissions that will now have been so linked to our economic growth and betterment will be an enormous, unprecedented global challenge but will also provide significant opportunities for sustainable growth, green jobs, development and innovation”.

哥本哈根氣候委員會的創始人拉斯姆森或許找到了激發企業家重拾幹勁的新路。過去二十年，可再生能源的飛速發展歸功於公眾的大力支持和巨額補貼，而技術創新則加快了它的發展步伐，使其得到更廣應用。拉斯姆森指出：「減排已與我們的經濟發展和進步密切相關，它將是一個巨大的前所未有的全球挑戰，但同時也將帶來可持續增長,綠色就業,發展和創新的難得機遇。」

While the vision identifies the attractive opportunities, the remedies proposed are less visionary. The six points agenda proposed by business

To achieve this carbon free future, we know what power and transport technologies contribute to CO2 emissions

leaders can be summarized as follows: More incentives (i.e. subsidies, price support) to increase deployment of low emissions technology, more funding for communities to adapt and mitigate, and performance based monitoring of emissions reduction by business.

機遇固然誘人，但是策略卻不夠遠見。商界領袖們提出六點建議，概括如下：提供更多激勵（如補貼,價格補助）促進低排放技術的應用，給社區提供更多資金以適應和減輕影響，及實行企業減排績效監督機制。

Subsidies and support for specific renewable energy technologies, under a rapidly changing technological environment, represent a high risk strategy. Our ability to predict which technologies will win – and deliver in the course of the next decade — is limited by existing science. In itself, science’s ability to predict technological changes that can meet future emissions reduction more effectively than present technologies is doubtful.

在一個科技發展日新月異的時代，補貼和扶持個別幾種可再生能源技術無疑一種高風險的策略。受現有的科學水平所限，我們無法預知未來十年哪些技術能脫穎而出取得成功，也無法預知現在的技術需要怎樣的變革，才能更好地滿足未來的減排需要。 MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Energy

What gives entrepreneurial impetus to “green” opportunities? 是什麼給「綠色」機遇以創業的動力？ In my doctoral research at Cranfield, I am coming to the view that getting the price of competing technologies to RETs is where we need to start. Specifically, coal, oil and gas emit CO2, with power generation and transport accounting for significant parts of emissions. However, CO2 emissions are treated as externalities because there is no easy way of pricing them. As a result, the politically expedient approach is to subsidize RETs, rather than price CO2 emissions in oil, coal and gas. 筆者在克蘭菲爾德作博士研究時認識到，首先要給可再生能源技術的競爭對手定價。具體而言，煤炭,石油和天然氣都排放二氧化碳，其中很大一部份的排放是來自發電和運輸。然而，因為不易定價，碳排放被當成外在因素，結果出於政治上的需要，我們選擇補貼可再生能源技術，而不是給煤炭, 石油和天然氣的碳排放定價。

This approach results in pricing distortions that favour coal, oil and gas. With society paying for its CO2, hydrocarbon based power technologies and transport are favoured because they are seen, mistakenly, as the cost effective

alternatives. To realize Rasmussen´s visionary aspiration, pricing CO2 forms the critical mechanics to exercise technology choices between RETs and hydrocarbon technologies.

這種做法造成了有利於煤炭,石油和天然氣的價格扭曲。因為碳成本由社會承擔，所以碳氫化合物發電技術和運輸受到青睞，它們被誤以為是具有成本效益的替代者。若要實現拉斯姆森的願景，碳定價至關重要，它是在可再生能源技術與碳氫化合物技術之間作選擇的決定因素。

While future RETs evolution is uncertain, backing technological champions with subsidies based on what is known today can be short-sighted. This is in fact the equivalent of Jevon´s Malthusian stance. That is, by subsidizing known RETs explicitly, government is making a choice as to which technology will deliver the results in a decade. Unfortunately, just like Jevon´s coal argument, a number of known RETs could be replaced by more advanced and cost effective technologies that are yet unknown today.

雖然可再生能源技術將來如何發展尚未可知，但是僅憑今天的認知用補貼來培養技術冠軍的做法未免短視，這與傑文斯的馬爾薩斯主義立場何其相似。通過補貼現有的可再生能源技術，政府已經作出了

選擇，相信這種技術將來能夠成功。遺憾的是，正如傑文斯對煤炭的結論，許多已有的可再生能源技術，將來也許都會被今天所未知的更先進,更經濟的技術所取代。

For this reason, I propose we start with what we aim to achieve with policy interventions.

有鑒於此，筆者建議應該從政策干預的初衷開始考慮。

There is sufficient political consensus that clean environment is what we as a society prefer to have. Whether we believe this as part of a crusade for global salvation, or plain and simple business opportunity, we can agree on this premise. In effect, what we want is a clean environment (as an objective) with reducing CO2 emissions as the means to achieve this. Seen in this context, the 2°C solution may indeed appear to confuse the means with the objective.

人類社會需要清潔的環境，這一點已有足夠的政治共識。不管它是偉大的救世之舉，抑或是顯而易見的商業機遇，我們都同意這個前提。事實上，我們需要的是一個清潔的環境（目標），而減少二氧化碳排放是實現這個目標的手段。就此而言，2 ° C的解決方案似乎混淆了目標與手段。

To achieve this carbon-free future, we know what power and transport technologies contribute to CO2 emissions. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

Energy

Hence, by penalizing through taxation and appropriate CO2 pricing, the appropriate costs of CO2 emissions become internalized. In the process, with hydrocarbon technologies no longer looking as “cheap”, innovations to replace them with RETs are given impetus. This is where the entrepreneurs come in to lend a hand in translating technological innovations into commercial opportunities.

Government subsidies, however, when used with supportive transformational strategies by firms, facilitates

technology diffusion

實現無碳的未來，我們需知道發電和運輸技術對碳排放的意義何在。通過稅收和適當的碳定價作為懲罰，碳排放成本就能落實到個體。在此過程中，碳氫化合物技術不再「廉價」，於是便有了用可再生能源技術取代它們的創新動力，到時候就需要企業家出手把技術成果轉化為商業機遇。

An impossible dream? Banning CFCs spurred the development of viable alternatives – not the subsidies to develop replacement technologies. So, how much in taxation do we need to add to hydrocarbon based technologies?

這是遙不可及的夢想嗎？回想當年，正是因為禁用氟利昂，才最終開發出可行的替代物，而不是靠補貼開發出替代技術。那麼，我們應向碳氫化合物技術征多少稅？

This is answered by comparing the ‘levellized’ costs of energy, a method of estimating the comparable costs of different technologies. At an oil price of $60/bbl, onshore wind operated in areas with high wind availability can compete with gas. Compared against coal, on a fully taxed basis (i.e. CO2 emissions), onshore wind is more competitive. Interestingly, hydro, geothermal and nuclear, all non-CO2 emitting power generation technologies, are more cost competitive than gas and coal. The carbon tax (or costs) needed to achieve RETs grid parity is less than the marginal cost of carbon shown in Figure 1.0.

通過比較能源平準成本可以找到答案，這種方法可估算出不同技術的可比成本。假如油價為60美元/桶，則在多風地區進行陸上風力發電就能與天然氣一爭高下。

在完全徵稅的基礎上（即碳排放），陸上風能比煤炭更有競爭力。有意思的是，包括水能,地熱能和核能在內的所有無碳排放發電技術，均比天然氣和煤炭更具成本效益。而為實現可再生能源技術電網平價所需的碳稅（或成本），低於圖1.0中的碳邊際成本。

Contrary to the anti-tax arguments, RETs such as wind power, geothermal and hydro power can compete effectively by applying indicative prices for CO2 emissions associated with coal, oil and gas. Taxation has the virtues of being transparent, certain — and hits the wallet where it matters. For large scale users of hydrocarbon based energy, taxing CO2 represents an effective way of encouraging the search for alternative technologies and ways of generating CO2 free energy.

現在，我們只需找到一位智慧的政治家，把這個主張宣揚給他的選民。

Public – private cooperation 公私合作 Official consensus is inclined to “socialize” funding through subsidies and in the guise of employment creation. Deploying wide ranging tools – subsidies, portfolio standards, feed-in tariffs, green certificates, incentives and taxation – governments have mixed records in delivering on their CO2 reductions under the Kyoto Protocol and RETs deployment. In fact, poor policy hinders rather than facilitates adaptation. Examine for instance:

與反對徵稅的觀點相反，假如能給煤炭, 石油和天然氣的碳排放定價，那麼風能, 地熱能,水能等可再生能源技術就會有競爭力。稅收的好處是透明,明確且有針對性。對於碳氫化合物能源的使用大戶而言，徵收碳稅能刺激他們尋找替代技術和生產無碳能源的新路。

官方的共識傾向於通過補貼和以創造就業的名義，把投資的責任推給社會。政策手段花樣繁多，補貼,配額制,強制上網電價, 綠色證書,激勵,稅收等等不一而足，然而政府在《京都議定書》的減排和可再生技術的應用上，表現得卻參差不齊。因為政策不力，非但沒有發揮促進作用，反而成為絆腳石。從以下的例子可見一斑：

Now, we just need to find an agile politician to sell this proposition to their constituencies.

1. US periodic setting of portfolio standards for RETs led to a boom – bust cycle in investments, given that regulatory MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Energy

COPENHAGEN - DECEMBER 7: Opening Day, Visitors in the Bella Center at the UN Climate Change Conference on December 7, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

uncertainty hinders commitments by firms looking for certainty.

1.美國定期制定可再生能源技術的配額制

政策，造成「盛極而衰」的投資循環，因為監管層面變化不定，使求穩的企業望而卻步。

2. Demand, costs and capex remain uncertain, notwithstanding the US government’s ability to regulate power tariffs. US tax incentives, applied from 1978 – 1985 failed to increase energy conservation investments, given continued uncertainty on benefits that vary with power tariffs, costs, demand and capex (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994) – what Jaffe and Stavins refer to as “energy paradox”. 2.儘管美國政府能規管電價，但需求,成本和資本開支仍充滿變數。從1978年到 1985年期間，美國的稅收激勵並未使節能投資顯著增長，原因是回報前景不明朗，而這恰恰取決於電價,成本,需求和資本開支（迪克西特和平狄克, 1994）。這種情況被傑斐和斯塔文斯稱為「能源悖論」。

3. RETs declining capex and subsidies pose a dilemma on the merits of an ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

“early mover’s” advantage that delays investments, unless generous subsidies (or threat of their removal) encourage an earlier exercise of investment options.

Far from a need for global consensus to turn into a legally binding agreement, governments can play constructive roles by adapting policies that facilitate 3. 可再生能源技術使資本開支和補貼減少， technology development and deployment. 「先行者優勢」成為空談，投資受到抑制， When one talks of aid and support, 非要有慷慨補貼（或者消除威脅）才能 the mechanics for delivering such 鼓勵業界先行先試。 intervention is the local government – not a globally binding agreement. Government subsidies, however, when 全球共識無需變為具有法律約束力的協議，政府可以發揮建設性作用採取政策促進 used with supportive transformational strategies by firms, facilitates technology 技術的開發和應用。援助和支持是政府的份內事，不能寄望於一份約束全世界的協議。 diffusion. Spain and Germany’s transformation as global leaders are After all, Copenhagen’s failure may attributed to supportive regulation that prove to be the entrepreneurs´ gain. firms use as a backdrop for developing With local governments pursuing their capabilities for RETs. In contrast, policies that matter to them, working the UK´s uptake of renewable energy with the private sector, we may just yet by utilities was less enthusiastic in spite accelerate achieving a carbon-free future of a similarly supportive package of by applying the discipline of the market incentives. as opposed to “socializing” investments 政府補貼與企業的轉型策略雙管齊下，最 as governments are inclined to do.

可促進技術普及。西班牙和德國正是通過監管手段扶持企業開發可再生能源技術，才成為這方面的世界領先國家。反觀英國，雖然其激勵措施並不遜色，但是促進可再生能源投入公用事業的熱情卻不夠高。

哥本哈根大會的失敗對企業家來說未嘗不是好事。隨著政府醞釀相關政策與民間合作，我們完全可以發揮市場作用實現無碳的未來，而不再像現在這樣把投資推給社會。|AT|

Travel

作者/by David Bowden

壯志淩雲

It would appear that Malaysia’s

AirAsia can do no wrong as it flies ever higher and further with a greater number of passengers on more frequent flights. Who would have thought that less than a decade ago many Asian travellers would be booking online, paying for their flying frills, purchasing their morning coffee and croissant and travelling to places they’ve probably never heard of before?

廉價航空的時代到來了，它令本地區旅客的飛行旅程徹底改觀。亞航汲取了歐洲廉價航空公司瑞安的成功經驗。有人說廉航公司的成功是以傳統的全票價航空公司為墊腳石，然而廉航公司卻說，它讓乘機旅行進入尋常百姓家，別忘了亞航的口號就是「現在人人都能飛」。

Flying habits have changed and budget carriers have not only introduced flying to many new passengers; new destinations have also opened up. With 更多的旅客，更多的航班，馬來西亞的亞 the promotional fares offered by budget 洲航空公司（下稱「亞航」）正在駛上發展 carriers many passengers now determine 的快車道。誰曾想過，不到十年前，許多 their holiday destination by the best 亞洲旅客還需在網上訂票，為飛機餐花錢， promotional fares offered rather than a 購買咖啡加麵包的早餐，然後飛到他們可 real desire to visit the destination. 能從來沒聽說的地方。

Budget flights have well and truly arrived and have revolutionised the flying itineraries of many regional travellers. AirAsia is based upon the successful European budget carrier, Ryanair. While some may argue that their success has been at the expense of the traditional full-fare airlines, the budget carriers will contend that they are giving those who couldn’t normally travel the ability to fly. Indeed, AirAsia’s slogan is: ‘Now Everyone Can Fly’.

最近亞航與越南廉航公司 VietJet 簽訂合作協議，這是亞航飛速發展的寫照。眼下亞航的網絡集中在亞洲地區，但也開闢了往來倫敦和黃金海岸，以及台北和珀斯等國際航線。

AirAsia is Asia’s leading and largest low-cost carrier. It boasts being an ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) carrier with major hubs based in Malaysia, Thailand and

廉航公司改變了人們的飛行習慣，讓許多新的旅客享受到飛行的樂趣，也有了新的目的地可供選擇。因為廉航票價經濟實惠，現在許多旅客挑選度假地點都看機票價格高低，真正想去哪里玩反而不重要。

As the ink dries on their most recent agreement with Vietnam’s budget carrier VietJet, AirAsia is rapidly spreading its wings with a network that still mostly services regional Asia but which extends across the meridians from London to the Gold Coast and either side of the Equator from Taipei to Perth. MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Travel

Indonesia. It services a network across Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Australia.

亞航是亞洲最大最先進的廉價航空公司，其航線遍佈東盟（東南亞國家聯盟），以馬來西亞 , 泰國和印尼為中心，服務網絡覆蓋馬來西亞 , 印尼 , 泰國 , 老撾 , 柬埔寨 , 緬甸 , 越南 , 新加坡 , 文萊 , 菲律賓 , 中國 , 香港 , 澳門 , 印度 , 孟加拉 , 斯里蘭卡和澳洲。

AirAsia has an interest in subsidiaries that operate from Indonesia and Thailand. Its low-cost, long-haul affiliate AirAsia X currently flies to China, Taiwan, Australia and the UK. With its fleet of 90 aircraft, AirAsia and AirAsia X have carried more than 85 million passengers to date.

亞航在印尼和泰國設有分公司。亞航的聯營公司 AirAsia X 也是一家廉航公司，現已開通往返中國 , 台灣 , 澳洲和英國的長途航線。亞航和 AirAsia X 共有 90 架飛機，迄今已運送旅客 8,500 萬人次。

While AirAsia is a publicly-listed company domiciled on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, AirAsia X remains a private company with its largest shareholder being Aero Venture, a private venture between Fernandes, other AirAsia directors and former Air Canada chairman and CEO Robert Milton.

亞航是吉隆坡交易所上市公司，而 AirAsia X 則是私人公司，其最大股東是 Aero Venture。Aero Venture 是一家由費爾南

AirAsia is rapidly spreading its wings with a network that still mostly services regional Asia but which extends across the meridians from London to the Gold Coast and either side of the Equator from Taipei to Perth ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

德斯 , 亞航的其他董事以及加拿大航空公司前任總裁和首席執行官羅伯特 · 米爾頓發起成立的私人公司。

Tuning into Success 成功之道 The airline is headed up by its enthusiastic and energetic CEO Datuk Tony Fernandes who, in the best Richard Branson traditions, isn’t someone to shy away from any media opportunity. It’s probably no coincidence that Fernandes once worked with Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Records.

亞航的首席執行官拿督費爾南德斯是一個充滿熱情與幹勁的人。跟理查德 · 布蘭森一脈相承，他從不放過吸引媒體目光的機會，這與他曾效力於維珍大西洋航空公司和維珍唱片公司不無關係。

While his media stunts may not be as grand as Branson’s, the AirAsia team works hard to leverage its extensive advertising spend. Being the former head of Warner Music (Malaysia), Fernandes is used to the razzamatazz of the entertainment industry and AirAsia trot out Fernandes knowing that he’s media friendly and guaranteed to make a headline.

或許費爾南德斯的媒體曝光度不及布蘭森，可是亞航的領導團隊卻很會動腦筋善用廣告開支。費爾南德斯曾執掌過華納音樂馬來西亞分公司，他對娛樂業的眼花繚

亂早已司空見慣。亞航讓費爾南德斯抛頭露面，乃因他與媒體打交道輕車熟路，必定是熱門人物。

His Tune Group has interests in AirAsia, AirAsia X and a whole host of businesses that complement both airlines and cater to the underserved mass market. In a recent interview he claimed: “The AirAsia and Tune groups have really become a lifestyle. You travel, you spend a lot of time in financial transactions – buying insurance and using credit cards, and you spend a lot of time talking on your mobile phones.” It’s not surprising that he’s also involved in hotels (Tune Hotels), financial services, mobile phones, retail and entertainment.

他的 Tune 集團參股經營亞航和 AirAsia X，以及許多與這兩家航空公司相配套的業務，致力開發這片潛力無窮的市場。近日他在訪談中說道：「亞航和 Tune 集團已成為一種生活方式。你可以旅行，可以花大把時間辦理金融業務—買保險 , 刷信用卡，還可以用手機煲電話粥。」此言非虛，因為酒店（Tune 酒店）, 金融服務 , 流動通訊 , 零售和娛樂，這些行業他都有涉足。

His portly frame doesn’t suggest that of a sportsman but when it comes to touching the hearts of his passengers, he knows which buttons to push. The airline now sponsors sports from F1 racing to football and most others in between.

Travel

Sport is central to the airline’s branding and now he’s the team principal for the new Lotus F1 Racing Team that has been granted entry into the 2010 season. 他身材魁梧，卻不是運動健將，但說到打動旅客的心，他自有一套。如今亞航是F1賽車,足球等體育運動的贊助商，運動是這家航空公司的品牌精髓。現在以他為領隊的F1蓮花車隊，已經獲准加入2010年賽季。 Changing Travel Patterns 改變旅行方式 Budget carriers are changing the way many people travel. Complimentary services passengers are used to from fullfare airlines went out the window when the budget airlines took to the air. Adopting a user-pay principle, budget airline passengers now pay for the extra frills. While many initially grumbled, it seems that the punters are now eager to forgo the complimentary juice, hot hand towels and re-runs of ‘Sex in the City’ dished up by the big boys because in fact they aren’t really complimentary, but costed into the price of a full-fare ticket. Revenue from the frills forms a considerable component of the bottom line for the budget carriers and can be up to 22.7% of income as in the case of America’s Allegiant Air.

廉航公司正在改變許多人的旅行方式，它的興起讓早已習慣於全票價航空公司所謂「免費」服務的旅客發生動搖。廉航的原則是只為所需買單，旅客自行付費購買額外服務。沒有免費的果汁,熱毛巾，也看不到明星雲集的「Sex in the City」，雖然起初頗受詬病，現在旅客們卻求之不得，因為天下沒有免費的午餐，這些服務其實都包含在票價裏。機上食品收入是廉航公司盈利的重要組成部份，比如美國的忠實航空公司就有 22.7%的收入來源於此。 It’s Not all Cheap and Cheerful 低價不低質 For many travellers accustomed to full-fare airlines there’s a belief that the budget carriers are only for budget travellers. However, high load factors on the budget airlines would suggest that they appeal to a large cross section of the flying public. While many can afford to pay for a seat on a full-fare airline, some don’t want to waste their money on unnecessary components of the journey. Economic uncertainty over the past year

forced many travellers to downsize and once they tried the budget carriers, they became confirmed converts. 許多習慣於全票價航空公司的旅客覺得廉價航空公司只適合經濟型旅客。然而，廉航公司的高運載率證明，它對很大一部份旅客具有吸引力。買得起全價票的大有人在，可是有些人並不想把錢浪費在旅途中不必要的花銷上。去年的經濟形勢不明朗，促使許多旅客節約開支，當他們試過廉航之後，就變成廉航的忠實擁躉。 Budget doesn’t necessarily mean travellers have to be crammed into sardine class. AirAsia X offers a premium class with preferential check in, larger and more spacious seating and express baggage

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Travel

Award-Winning Airline 備受讚譽 Everyone loves a winner and AirAsia was named the 2009 World’s Best Low

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

WINNER

Cost Airline in the annual World Airline Survey by Skytrax. In addition, AirAsia and AirAsia X were named joint winners of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) Airline of the Year Award for 2009. 最棒的才是最受歡迎的。2009年亞航在Skytrax舉辦的世界航空公司年度調查中，榮膺「世界最佳低成本航空公司」大獎。亞航還與AirAsia X聯手奪得亞太航空中心（CAPA）「2009年度最佳航空公司」大獎。 Fernandes’ guiding principal is ‘Dream the Impossible’ and for someone who started less than a

service. It will soon introduce fully-reclined beds which will be a bonus for those who are prepared to pay for extra comfort while travelling on long haul flights. 廉價票並不意味著旅客們都要擠在狹窄的機艙裏。AirAsia X就設有高等艙位，旅客可以享受到優先檢票,寬大舒適的座椅還有行李快遞服務。不久還會配備躺椅，願意花錢買享受的長途旅客不妨一試。

D AIRL L I R

Everyone loves a winner and AirAsia was named the 2009 World’s Best Low Cost Airline in the annual World Airline Survey by Skytrax

R DS 20

decade ago with just two planes, the sky’s the limit for an airline fleet that now includes 90 brand new Airbus aircraft. 費爾南德斯的座右銘是「有夢想一切皆有可能」。從不到十年前的兩架飛機起步，現在亞航的機隊已有90架嶄新的「空中巴士」。憑著一片淩雲壯志，亞航的前途不可限量。|AT|

Economy

Blooming in the Face of WORLD GLOOM 不畏浮雲遮望眼

- Asian Investment FundsLead the Way

-亞洲投資基金碩果累累作者/By Bruce Curran

Its easy looking back, but there

are always classic lessons to be learned. 1929 was not a good year for investors, and it took a decade for the primitive wheels of commerce to grind back towards profitability. The capitalist cart had just begun rolling smoothly when Mr Hitler and his gang of filibusters sprang into view, spilled the beans and spoiled the broth, and dumped the world into a dizzy turmoil. In the back woods, Wall Street was a prime victim. 回顧歷史，我們有太多經驗教訓可循。 1929年對投資者來說是個災年，它讓雛形中的商業車輪花了十年時間，才駛回財富的軌道。那時候，資本主義世界方興未艾，是希特勒和他的人馬到處興風作浪，最終把世界攪個天翻地覆。而華爾街是這一切的受害者。

In 2008 it was the turn of Wall Street (that bastion of ‘financial security’) to lead the charge down the dungeon of capitalist make believe ,and to upset the shiny apple cart, and dump the world in a credit crunch par excellence. In 2010 the USA and their European allies still flounder in this dirty bathwater. A dark and murky cloud drifts aimlessly in a financial playground, where smoke screens have become all the rage, in an effort to smooth over the turmoil, and disguise the oozing river of near ‘bankruptcy’ that flows as large as the Yangtze Kiang through the financial streets of the old World order. Back upstream the 3 gorges dam seems to do little to stem the flow of financial tears in the West. 2008年，這一次華爾街（所謂「金融安全」堡壘）充當了擾亂世界的元兇，一場史無前例的信貸危機，徹底撕下了資本家 MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

的偽善面具，那些光鮮無比的宏偉藍圖，刹那間飛灰湮滅。2010年，美國和它的歐洲盟友們依舊在泥潭中苦苦掙扎，金融業一片愁雲慘霧，到處烏煙瘴氣，平息動盪不過是託辭，實則是掩人耳目，企圖掩蓋舊的世界秩序下金融業兵敗如山倒的事實，崩盤的危險如同洶湧的長江之水鋪天蓋地而來，可縱然是三峽大壩也難抵擋西方的金融危機洪流。

But in the East it is a different story. Asia is plainly and mysteriously on another financial planet. Feng shui; a definitive mind set; a shiny set of financial wheels; and a more respectful rung on the economic ladder, has actually boosted the Asian economies.

股市卻反其道而行，好似置身事外，一派歌舞昇平。

Those investment funds lumped aptly under the grand title of “Emerging Markets”, or fine tuned under the title of a “BRIC” fund, have been raking in the profits. The question is – how much money came out early enough from under the mattress and was Asian invested?

put it “Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.” Naturally we all leapt into the Asian markets and took that plunge and made a killing. 眾所周知，大跌過後就是買入時機。安布羅斯•瑞德沐一語道破天機：「勇氣不是無所畏懼，而是因為看到比恐懼更重要的

有道是「西方不亮東方亮」，亞洲的金融狀況跟西方相比可謂冰火兩重天。亞洲經濟的繁榮，固然可稱之為風水輪流轉，但也歸功於其堅定的意志，穩健的金融體系，還有腳踏實地攀登經濟階梯的精神。

At the heart of the matter is that new chestnut, China, somehow symbolised by the gleam and glitz of Pudong’s Pearl Tower, dominating the skyline like a rocket ship about to launch. The fact of the matter is that it has already taken to the skies, through the buzzing airways of commerce, industry, trade, and finance, supported by infrastructure and what the West, in their time of despair, might like to class as economic skulduggery. 中國的崛起最值得稱道。浦東天際線上最亮麗的風景——東方明珠塔，宛如一架火箭蓄勢待發，某種程度上它就是中國的象徵。所不同的是中國早已展翅騰飛，依託基礎設施的有力支撐，商業,工業,貿易和金融全面開花。可是在日子並不好過的西方，中國的經濟成就卻被某些人歪曲為弄虛造假的結果。

The proof is in the pudding, and 2009 eventually saw a gigantic turnaround with some remarkable results in Asia. At the beginning of 2009 most investors were bent over and creaking in shock, sourly beaten by hideous falls in equity markets worldwide. While cash was being stored under larger mattresses at home, well away from the collapsed banking system, Asian equity markets took off apace and flourished in equity outer space. 事實不言自明，2009年亞洲以驕人的成績讓人刮目相看。回首2009年初，全球股市接連暴跌，投資者如驚弓之鳥惶惶不可終日。人們抱定「現金為王」的信念，對崩潰的銀行體系唯恐避之不及。然而亞洲 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

1929 was not a good year for investors, and it

took a decade for the primitive wheels of commerce to grind back towards profitability.

那些冠以「新興市場」或者「金磚四國」名目的投資基金皆賺得盆滿缽滿，然而你可知道，有多少人能夠先知先覺，搶先投資於亞洲？

The Frenchman Voltaire in the 1700s said, “Is there anyone so wise as to learn by the experience of others?” Yet in this day and age, and in the case of the Asian financial market boom in 2009, who was there (alongside you) to reap the rewards? 十七世紀法國文豪伏爾泰說過：「懂得汲取他人經驗的人就是聰明人。」今時今日，在2009年的亞洲金融市場，誰是（如你這般）收穫果實的人？

Everyone knows that when things have taken a big dip, that is the time to buy. After all as Ambrose Redmoon succinctly

東西。」於是我們投身亞洲股市，熬過暴跌之苦，終於守得雲開，苦盡甘來。

This is all backed up by the words of TS Eliot who said, “Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” 托馬斯•斯特恩斯•艾略特說過：「只有敢於冒險遠行的人，才知道自己究竟能夠走多遠。」

You and I were ready on the sidelines to cash in on the cash cow, because, as George Bernard Shaw said, “The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can’t find them make them.’ At the end of the day William Shakespeare

Economy

said it all with the simple words, “The readiness is all.”

Japan on the other hand, a highly sophisticated and developed Asian economy, tutored by the US investment house Mellon, turned in a loss of 3.83%. Down under, Jardine Fleming managed a 69% return in Australia.

當勝利來臨之際，你應做好準備。正如蕭伯納所雲：「在這世界上，成功者是那些努力尋找他們想要的機會的人，如果找不到機會，他們就去創造機會。」總而言之，用莎翁的話來說：「隨時準備著就是了。」

The investment house Jardine Fleming, have a Fund in Korea that made 66.7% in 2009. Their Thailand Fund made 84% over the same timeline, while in Taiwan their fund creamed in a growth of 64%. They are a British company who delisted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange around the time of the British ‘handover’ of the territory to China, when China spoke of ‘150 years of shame’ while Britain ruled Hong Kong. Jardine Fleming were picked out by the Chinese as an example of this shame, amid a flurry of mainland accusations of being linked up with the Opium Wars, in the days when the British rulers issued Government licences to trade in Opium in another century. 投資機構怡富公司旗下的韓國基金2009 年上漲66.7%，泰國基金上漲84%，台灣基金上漲64%。這家英資公司在英國向中國「移交」香港殖民地，也就是中國一雪英國統治香港「一百五十年之恥」的時候，從香港聯交所摘牌退市。歷史上英國統治者曾公開准許鴉片貿易，「鴉片戰爭」是無數中國人的心頭之痛，而怡富公司便是中國人眼中這個恥辱的代表之一。

另一方面，作為高度發達成熟的亞洲經濟體，日本市場全年下跌3.83%，成為美國投資機構Mellon的傷心地。在澳洲，怡富公司取得了69%的回報。

Meanwhile the Baring investment managers posted a China select Fund result of 72%, which wasn’t too shabby for 2009. Going further west in the east, the HSBC group, an old chestnut in Asia, managed to rack up a 125% gain in their India Fund. Who has heard of the group Kotak, a new chestnut, who gave investors a profit of 104% in 2009 in India. 與此同時，霸菱旗下的中國投資基金上漲72%，這成績在2009年只算及格。在東半球的西部，亞洲的老牌投資者滙豐集團，其印度基金錄得125%的漲幅。名不見經傳的科塔克集團，2009年也在印度實現104% 的豐厚回報。

Meanwhile investing in most of Europe and the USA is a bit like pouring tea from a chocolate teapot. South America adds the B to BRIC funds with Brazil, and with South America comes under that lucid umbrella of “Emerging Markets”, and has also managed impressive results recently. 歐洲和美國市場的投資大多顆粒無收，而以「金磚四國」中的巴西為代表的南美洲則讓投資者嘗到甜頭，這個新興市場的表現可圈可點。

This is all very well, but what of the future? If you still fall into line and believe in the old world order, then invest in USA and Western Europe, but beware that this investment flame might be getting as much protection for your capital as using a chocolate fire guard. There again shares in Kraft might get you a boost with Cadbury.

Going further west in the east, the HSBC group,

an old chestnut in Asia, managed to rack up a 125% gain in their India Fund.

Who has heard of the group Kotak, a new chestnut, who gave investors a profit of 104% in 2009 in India.

MARCH 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy

那麼，將來又當如何？假如你依然墨守成規，相信舊的世界秩序，那就投資於美國和西歐，但是千萬小心不要賠了夫人又折兵。或許類似於卡夫併購吉百利的餡餅還會從天而降。

The buzz words still have to be “Emerging Markets”, while the downturn in 2009 with the Hedge Fund industry and in Commodity Funds is being talked back up right now, profitability is forecast for 2010 and beyond. 真正熱門的地方非新興市場莫屬，2009 年失意而歸的對沖基金和商品基金有希望東山再起，2010年及今後的「錢」景值得看好。

It’s a complicated brew. But for those who made it in 2009 in Asia it is time to sit back on the brand new yacht, and enjoy the new beach cottage. 個中道理只可意會不可言傳，而對2009 年已經在亞洲取得成功的人來說，現在是時候開啟嶄新旅程，享受投資的快樂。

Perhaps it is also time to take more cash from the stash beneath the mattress and trickle a dollar or three into those “Emerging Markets”, and place a wholesome wad into agricultural Commodities… after all, half the world lives on rice. Put your money where your mouth is, and invest in this fuel that drives the workers of the “emerging markets” – after all rice is Asia. 眼下投資於新興市場時猶未晚，農產品值得重點考慮，畢竟世界上的半數人口都

以大米為主食，而亞洲是大米的主產地，這就是新興市場的機遇。

But the future signs are still only for the brave at heart. “Is there anyone so wise as to learn by the experience of others?” The advice is simple, don’t fret, take the plunge, for “courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.”

未來掌握在勇敢者的手中。「懂得汲取他人經驗的人就是聰明人」，道理很簡單，不要怨天尤人，敢於直面風險，記住「勇氣不是無所畏懼，而是因為看到比恐懼更重要的東西」。

Indeed, its easy looking back, especially after the success of investing last year when the signs were obvious, and the lessons worked well when put to the test. Asia is definitively blooming in the face of the world gloom. 溫故而知新，去年的投資成績歷歷在目，成敗得失值得深思。放眼亞洲，當世界一片黯淡，風景這邊獨好。|AT|

The proof is in the pudding, and 2009 eventually saw a gigantic turnaround with some remarkable results in Asia. At the beginning of 2009 most investors were bent sourly beaten by hideous falls in equity markets worldwide. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | MARCH 2010

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