From the Editor’s Desk
Welcome to our first edition of Asian Tigers magazine Many of you know us from our on-line financial publication (asiantir.com) as well as our financial reports and newsletters. We recently decided to broaden our services and move into print media as an additional way of reaching our clients.
Asian Tigers Philippines Editor in Chief Charles Greene
Managing Editor Mark Wayne
Written by a team of experienced journalists and editors, the articles in the magazine are wide-ranging, covering pertinent and up-to-date topics of importance so as to present a balanced and neutral view of current financial issues. As a result, The Asian Tigers magazine gives you discerning and highly focused insight into critical investment news. So if you need to keep updated on the latest information that helps with your portfolio, and consequently make informed decisions on your investments… then read on and enjoy. Charlie Greene Editor in Chief
歡迎閱覽首期 《亞洲虎投資者報告》雜誌 亞洲虎財經新聞網站（asiantir.com）以及財經報告和通訊已被廣大讀者所熟 知。近期亞洲虎決定拓寬服務範圍，深入平面傳媒領域，旨在為客戶提供全方 位服務。 亞洲虎延聘資深作家和編輯團隊，文章涉獵廣泛，直擊時事熱點，以客觀中肯之 態度評述財經話題，為您提供投資要聞之精闢見解與深刻洞察。 《亞洲虎投資者報告》雜誌將以最新資訊助您穩健理財，作出明智投資決策。 祝您閱讀愉快！ 主編 Charlie Greene 謹啟
Contributors
Chris Champion David Bowden Steve Lunt Daniel Chow Michael Wilson Ian Fraser
Circulation Manager Bonnie Tsang
Production Manager Ferdie Ng
Design & Layout Paolo Yabao
Marketing & Advertising Janina Garcia garcia@asiantir.com
Editorial & Comments Eric Wong editorial@asiantir.com
Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong www.asiantir.com No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only. All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Contents
China
China’s Banking Revolution 9 China and the Dollar: Just a big Bluff 19
15
Philippines
Features 6
The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲 作者 / by Chris Champion
9
China’s Banking Revolution 中國的銀行業改革 作者 / by Michael Wilson
12 Indonesia Votes 印尼大選
作者 / by Michael Wilson
15 Fighting Spirit in the Philippines 菲律賓的鬥志 作者 / by Steve Lunt
19 China and the Dollar: Just a Big Bluff? 中國看美元—說說而已？ 作者 / by Michael Wilson
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
25
IOSCO
22
Malaysia
12 Indonesia
6
Cambodia
22 Malaysia: Taking Care of Business 馬來西亞: 新興的國際營商中心 作者 / by David Bowden
25 IOSCO and Regulation 奧巴馬的干涉主義 作者 / by Ian Fraser
29 Emulating the Style of Fundamental Investor Rock Stars IOSCO與監管 作者 / by Daniel Chow
32 The Recession you have when you dont have a Recession 衰退論 作者 / by Chris Champion
35 Obama the Interventionist 奧巴馬的干涉主義 作者 / by Michael Wilson
Departments 38 Technical Overview of Markets 40 ATIR Market Report
Asian Tiger News
The 數字的遊戲
Numbers
Game 專欄作者/by Chris Champion
A Woman’s Place is in the Economy 婦女在經濟中的地位 You have to dig pretty deep to find any positive aspects of the global economic downturn, but we think we have uncovered a nugget. The recession has thrown the spotlight on economic management around the world — the more you understand your problems, the better off you are trying to fix them.
要想知道全球衰退有什麼好處，非得 有掘地三呎的本事，幸而我們總算有所 收穫。衰退令經濟管理成為全世界的焦 點——看問題要透徹，解決起來才順手。
In Cambodia, which is struggling as much as anyone with recession, that spotlight has revealed something which has received scant acknowledgement in the past — the fact that the country’s economic performance owes a great deal to women, who have for years made up more than 50% of a workforce decimated by two decades of civil war. 在柬埔寨這個深陷衰退泥潭的國家，我 們發現了一個過去被人忽視的事實——該 國的經濟成果頗多出自婦女之手。綿延二 十年的內戰使國家千瘡百孔，多年來婦女 佔了勞動力的半壁江山。
They have not received the credit they deserve, they still do not reap a fair share
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
of the benefits of economic growth, and they are, according to experts and development organizations, the demographic hardest hit in Cambodia by the economic crisis.
然而她們卻沒有得到應有的肯定，沒有 公平地分享到經濟增長的成果，而且據 專家和發展組織表示，在這場經濟危機 中，她們是柬埔寨受衝擊最重的群體。
“It is not fair for our women to be contributing to the economy of the country when there is so little investment in the health, education and small and medium enterprises where women are predominant,” said Mu Sochua, a legislator and gender advocate.
身為國會議員和婦女權益倡導者的Mu Sochua表示：「在衛生，教育和中小企業 投資嚴重不足，而且中小企業又以女工 為主的情況下，讓我們婦女成為國家經 濟的支柱是不公平的。」
Consensus forecasts are for economic recovery in Cambodia by 2010, a process, which some are seeing as a golden opportunity to empower women in both their social and economic roles.
普遍預測柬埔寨將在2010年迎來經濟復
Cambodian woman in the rice fields
Asian Tiger News
甦，這個過程在一些人看來是提高婦女的 社會和經濟地位的難得機遇。
“The global financial crisis confirms the failure of an economic model that, as agreed by many, has been made and dominated by men,” said a statement by the East Asia office of International Labor Organization. “The present crisis could present new opportunities to women to take the lead alongside men and raise their voice to change their society for the better.”
At 13th place, Osaka is the highest ranked Asian city
國際勞工組織東亞局的一份報告指出： 「環球金融危機證明了許多人眼中由男性 創造和主宰的經濟模式的失敗。當前這 場危機將給女性提供新的機遇而與男性 併駕齊驅，及增強她們改造社會的話語 權。 」|AT|
The Comforts of Home 家的溫馨
Melbourne, the cosmopolitan Australian city where it never rains (the 10-year drought has broken in the rest of the country but not in the south-eastern corner) and which suffered one of the highest concentrations of swine flu on the planet, has received some good news, being named by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s liveability poll as the third-most liveable city on Earth.
墨爾本，澳洲的國際大都會。整座城市 幾乎終年無雨（全國其他地方已結束長達 十年的乾旱，唯獨東南一隅的墨爾本是個 例外） ，而且是世界上豬流感高發的城市之 一。然而最近墨爾本卻傳來好消息，她被 Economist Intelligence Unit評為全球第三的 宜居城市。
The good news for Melburnians is not that their home ranks so high internationally, but that it ranks higher
than Sydney, which was a mere ninth place. Australian cities traditionally do well in the ECU’s annual rankings. The latest list shows Perth at equal fifth with Calgary, Adelaide at 11th and Brisbane at 16th. 其實真正讓墨爾本人樂開懷的並非是得 到如此高的國際排名，而是力壓排在第九 位的悉尼。在ECU的年度評選中，澳洲城 市向來成績不錯。最新出爐的榜單上，珀 斯與卡爾加里併列第五，阿德萊德排名十 一，布里斯班則排在十六。
Vancouver was voted the world’s most liveable city, with Vienna second and Toronto fourth.
溫哥華當選全球最宜居城市，榜眼是維 也納，多倫多位列第四。
The highest-ranked Asian city was Osaka at 13th place, and the best-ranked American city was Washington DC at 35th. Athens was ranked worst, at 63rd, of the western European capitals with an 81.2% liveability score, but the ECU says any city with a score above 80 percent “will have few, if any, challenges to living standards.”
亞洲排名最高的城市是大阪，位列十 三；美國排名最高的城市是華盛頓，為第 三十五。西歐國家首都中，雅典排名最 末，僅列六十三位，宜居分數為81.2%，但 ECU說得分超過80%的城市「在生活水準 上幾乎都無可挑剔」。
Not so liveable were Moscow at 69th spot, Beijing 76th, Johannesburg at equal 92nd with Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo,
They said 名人名言 ...
“Everything reminds Milton Friedman of the money supply. Everything reminds me of sex, but I try to keep it out of my papers.” — Robert Solow, US economist. 「凡事都讓米爾頓·弗里德曼聯想到貨幣供給。凡事都讓我聯想到性愛， 只是我不會把它寫進文章裏罷了。」— 羅伯特·索洛，美國經濟學家
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
Asian Tiger News
Vacouver in Canada has been rated as the most livable city ion the planet
Bangkok 100th, Manila 108th, New Delhi equal 114th spot with Cairo and Mumbai 120th. 排名稍遜的有莫斯科（69） ，北京 （76） ，約翰內斯堡，里約熱內盧及聖 保羅（併列92） ，曼谷（100） ，馬尼拉 （108） ，新德里及開羅（併列114） ，孟買 （120） 。
Cities scoring below 50 percent, which the ECU described as presenting “daily challenges to living standards”, include Tehran, Karachi and Lagos. The three least liveable cities were Algiers, Dhaka and Harare. 得分低於50的城市包括德黑蘭，卡拉奇 和拉各斯，ECU稱這些城市「每天都有生 活水準上的挑戰」。排名最末的三個城市 是阿爾及爾，達卡及哈拉雷。 |AT| Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed
The Art of Spin 安撫的藝術
The state of the Maldivian economy has declined sharply since November 2008, if you believe the Maldives Monetary Authority. It reported in May 2009 that the real economy has decelerated. The authority’s quarterly economic review projected GDP growth of minus 0.3% in 2009, compared to 5.8% in 2008, and projects real output to contract by 1.3% in 2009. Crucially for the Maldives, the monetary authority
forecasts tourism to decline by 11% in calendar 2009, and the construction sector to decline by 24%.
自從2008年11月以來馬爾代夫的經濟形 勢急轉直下——假如你相信馬爾代夫金融 管理局的話。2009年5月馬金管局發表報 告稱實體經濟出現減速，在季度經濟總結 中，該局預料2009年GDP將下滑0.3%，而 2008年則為增長5.8%。同時還預測2009年 實體產出萎縮1.3%。對馬爾代夫來說更致 命的是，金管局預料2009年旅遊業將下滑 11%，建造業萎縮24%。
In the wake of all this deflating news, the Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed addressed the nation via a press release. His government, he announced, had brought inflation down from 12.06% in 2008 to 10.38%. The number of “upmarket” tourists had “not declined much”. The number of midmarket arrivals had fallen, he noted, but the president “did not find this decline alarming”. Well, that’s a relief. 連串壞消息過後，馬爾代夫總統納希 德（Mohamed Nasheed）透過新聞稿發表 全國講話，稱政府已將通脹率從2008年 的12.06%降至10.38%；「高端」遊客人數 「並未減少太多」，而中端遊客人數雖有下 滑，但總統「不覺得跌幅讓人不安」。 總算讓人鬆了一口氣。|AT|
In another time and another downturn, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt fought the Great Depression with all the weapons he could muster, boosting public spending, lowering interest rates to encourage lending etc. In 1933 the US Secretary of the Interior, Harold Ickes, was asked why the president was so bent on shaking things up. “You can’t fertilize a 40-acre field,” Ickes said, “by farting through the fence.”
在另一個年代的另一場危機中，羅斯 福總統祭出了手中的所有武器對付「大 蕭條」—— 擴大公共開支，減息刺激信 貸…凡此種種，不一而足。1933年美國內 政部長伊克斯（Harold Ickes）被問到總統 何以如此大動干戈，此君答道：「你不能 隔著籬笆放屁來給40英畝的土地施肥。」
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
China’s Banking Economy
R e v o lu t i o n
why China’s investment scene has outpaced the rest of the world in the last nine months - strong domestic demand, a growing strategic presence, and a hefty US$2 trillion cushion of foreign exchange reserves, to name just three. But somehow the recent improvements within the banking sector have never really figured in foreigners’ perceptions of the situation. All of which in turn suggests that a key strength of the country is being completely ignored in their calculations. 過去九個月中國的投資形勢 在世界上一枝獨秀，這當中 有許多令人信服的理由，譬 如內需強勁，戰略影響力提 升，還有高達兩萬億美元的 外匯儲備作後盾。然而近年 來銀行業的進步卻從未真正
作者/by Michael Wilson
反映在外國人對形勢的判斷中，換言之， 中國的一個核心實力在他們的計算中被完 全忽略了。
Things were not always this good. Seven or eight years ago, the (entirely correct) Western perception of Chinese banks was that they were overloaded with non-performing loans which they had been more or less coerced into making, often to state-owned enterprises, by the Beijing government. In 2002 the People’s Bank of China reported that these loans still accounted for as much as 26% of the outstanding loan portfolios among the Big Four banks (Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and the Commercial Bank of China). And photograph © JW kirkland
There Are many good reasons
中國的銀行業改革
There are many good reasons why China’s investment scene has outpaced the rest of the world in the last nine months JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
10
Economy
yes, back in those halcyon days before America’s own credit crunch, those figures seemed pretty frightening to the analysts at Goldman Sachs and Standard & Poor’s. Unfortunately, though, that was where their perception stayed.
HSBC Building, Hong Kong.
The reality has been somewhat different. A series of statutory reforms since 1999 has allowed the banks to parcel up their non-performing assets and resell them onto the private market - thus collateralising their risk. A personal credit rating system has been established which has helped to foster a new market in private credit risk, and the numbers of commercial banks in China have soared. There are some 750 million bank debit cards in circulation, issued by around 110 banking institutions. Clients of the state-owned commercial banks can obtain cards allowing them to obtain goods from abroad in US dollars. Large foreign banks have been welcome in China since 2002. And, all the time, the relaxation of stock market controls is creating new opportunities for making the system
photograph © kodiak119
過去的情況可不像現在這麼好。大約 七，八年前，西方對中國銀行業的判斷 （千真萬確）是各大銀行已在不良貸款的 壓力下不堪重負，這些貸款或多或少都 在中央政府的授意下被借給國有企業。 2002年中國人民銀行報告稱，此類貸款佔 到四大國有銀行（中國銀行，建設銀行， 農業銀行，工商銀行）貸款總額的26%。 放到信貸危機爆發前的美國，這樣的數字 足以讓高盛和標準普爾的分析師驚恐不 已。不過，這些都是陳年往事了。
more responsive and more flexible. This is a powerful backdrop for an economy engaged in rapid growth.
時移世易，1999年以來的一系列法定改 革令銀行得以在非公開市場上打包出售不 良資產，相當於把自身風險作了抵押。 個人信用評級體系逐步建立，為私人信貸 風險培育出一個新市場。與此同時，商業 銀行的數量亦有大幅增長，目前全國有 110多家銀行機構，銀行借記卡發行量多 達7.5億張。國有商業銀行的客戶使用銀行 卡便可在國外用美元購物。2002年，中國 對大型外資銀行敞開大門。隨著股票市場 放鬆管制，銀行系統的應變能力和靈活性 大大增強。這一切都為經濟迅速增長注入 強勁動力。
There are still problems, of course. Many of China’s fiscal mechanisms are opaque, to put it mildly, and the setting of interest
rates and exchange rate policy is especially complex and obscure. It isn’t always easy to get reliable data on the composition of banks’ published accounts, and there is still a lack of reliable credit information. But if anyone in the West still thinks of Chinese institutions in the old way, they have it all wrong. And if investors still fear that a restrictive banking system might hold back the burgeoning growth of the Chinese stock markets, they are half a decade out of date. 當然還有一些問題。中國的財政制度還 不是很透明（這是客氣的說法），尤以利 率和匯率政策的製定最為複雜和模糊。要 從銀行的公開報表上得到可靠的數據並非 易事，而且缺少翔實的信貸資料。儘管如 此，若是西方人依然用舊眼光來看待中 國的銀行機構，那他們可就大錯特錯。 同樣，如果投資者擔心森嚴的銀行制度會 阻礙中國股市蓬勃發展，那他們的思維恐 怕還停留在五年前。
Fitch Still Worries
photograph © Kern Beisser
This year has seen a return of scepticism in some Western quarters, however. A recent report by the Fitch credit rating agency says that credit risk is beginning to ratchet upward again, and that there might also be inflationary implications. Chinese banks lent a massive US$750 billion in the first four months of 2009, the agency says, with most of the money going to largely state-owned corporations.
惠譽的擔心 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zhongshan Square Branch, Shenyang
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
今年西方世界又興起懷疑論調。信貸評 級機構惠譽近期發表報告稱，信貸風險 再度抬頭，通脹風險若隱若現。該機構
Economy
11
指，2009年前四個月中國銀行業放款多達 7,500億美元，其中絕大部份流向了大型國 有企業。
Moreover, Fitch says that the quality of the lending itself is giving cause for concern. The global credit crunch has forced down the margins that banks can expect to make on their lending, and the response in China has been to crank up the sheer volume of bank lending in order to compensate for the reduced financial gains from each loan. 更有甚者，惠譽稱這些貸款本身的質素 就足以令人擔憂，環球信貸危機壓縮了銀 行的貸款利差，中國的對策是促使銀行加 大放貸力度，以彌補減少的貸款收益。
Beijing has been quick to dismiss Fitch’s report as a distortion of the true situation. It’s certainly true that China’s banks are being required to lend more money: only last year, but that might not actually be a problem. Premier Wen Jiabao called on the banks to boost their loan portfolios by at least RMB 5 trillion (around US$750 billion) during 2009 to support the nation’s RMB 4 trillion stimulus plan. And Xiao Gang, the chairman of the Bank of China, said in May that total bank lending is likely to top RMB 8 trillion during the year. All of which would suggest that Fitch’s view might be off-target, and that the apparent credit explosion might be exactly what the government ordered. 北京迅速駁斥了惠譽的報告，稱其歪曲 事實。中國各大銀行確實被要求增加放貸 （去年例外），但這也許並無不妥。溫家寶 總理號召銀行把2009年貸款總量增加至少 5萬億人民幣（約7,500億美元），以支持國 家的4萬億人民幣經濟刺激計劃。中國銀行 總裁肖鋼五月份表示，今年全行業貸款總
China State Bank building
量可能達到8萬億人民幣。所有這些都表明 惠譽過慮了，也許明顯的信貸膨脹就是政 府本意。
One thing’s for sure: Those nonperforming loans are still dwindling away at a rate which would make most Western bankers gnash their teeth with envy. According to the banking regulator, there are only RMB 550 billion of non-performing loans still out there - or just over 2% of the total loan portfolio for the country as a whole. Westerners may retain a few reservations about the complete accuracy of this figure, because many suspect Chinese institutions of rolling forward some bad
debts rather than declaring them. But, in these post-credit-crunch days, there are not many foreign bankers with clean enough consciences of their own to feel like throwing stones at China. 有一點可以確定，那就是中國銀行業的 不良貸款正以令大多數西方銀行家羡慕不 已的速度下降。據銀行業監管機構統計， 目前不良貸款總額有人民幣5,500億元，僅 佔全國貸款總量的2%稍強。也許西方人會 對這個數字的準確性有所保留，因為許多 人都懷疑中國的銀行機構對待某些壞賬是 採取向前滾計的手法，而不是公諸於眾。 然而，經歷過信貸危機的洗禮後，想必不 會再有太多外國銀行家敢大言不慚地對中 國說三道四了。|AT| JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
12
Economy
印尼大選
IndonesiaVotes
The stock market has already
made up its mind. There’ll be something seriously wrong with Indonesia’s democratic process if the incumbent president, General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, doesn’t walk home during the first round of the presidential elections that will be taking place on 8th July. The opinion polls are already giving him 60% of the prospective vote, compared about 18% for with his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and 9% for the serving vice president, Jusuf Kalla. In April 2009, Yuhoyono’s Democratic Party won 26% of the seats in the national parliamentary - almost a third more than any other party - and accordingly, he should have no difficulty in assembling a powerful government. 股票市場已經作出選擇。如果現任總 統蘇西洛將軍（General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono）沒能在7月8日總統大選第一 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
作者/by Michael Wilson
輪過後榮歸故里，那一定是印尼的民主進 程出了大問題。民意調查顯示蘇西洛的支 持率高達六成，遙遙領先於他的前任梅加 瓦蒂（Megawati Sukarnoputri）（18%），及 現任副總統尤素夫（Jusuf Kalla）（9%）。 2009年4月，蘇西洛領導的民主黨贏下國會 的26%席位，佔全部席位將近三份之一， 成為國會第一大黨，為他組建一個強力政 府掃清障礙。
This is great news for the Jakarta stock exchange, which has been staging one of the biggest bounce-backs of the last
decade. Between December and midJune, the keynote JKSE Index put on 56% - or 69% in US dollar terms. Which meant, in effect, that it was within 25% of its early-2008 highs, and twice the levels of four years ago. The Indonesian economy recorded an amazing 4.4% growth in the first quarter of 2009, at a time when most of the country’s neighbours were struggling with the threat of recession. And even the most pessimistic forecasts are currently putting this year’s growth forecasts at 2.5% or higher. 受此消息鼓舞，雅加達交易所創出十年 來最大升幅。從12月到6月中旬，基準雅加 達交易所指數（JKSE Index）飆升56%（按 美元計則為69%），距離2008年年初高位不 到25%，較之四年前更是翻了一倍。2009年 一季度，印尼經濟令人驚訝地增長4.4%， 同一時期，周邊鄰國大多還在衰退的陰影 下掙扎。縱使從目前最保守的預測來看， 今年的經濟也有望增長2.5%以上。
Economy
13
Something, then, is going very right indeed for one of the poorest countries in the Asia-Pacific region. It could, of course, simply be that the global commodities revival has given Indonesia’s mining and timber industries a special boost. But right now, the clever money is focusing instead on Yudhoyono’s own presidential qualities. The International Monetary Fund has been lavishing praise on the general and his central bank for their positive responses to the global credit crunch (see below). And the Moody’s credit rating agency recently upgraded Jakarta’s Ba3-rated government bonds from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’, because of what it described as “a strong growth dynamic” combined with “an increasingly effective macro-economic policy framework” from Yudhoyono’s government. 對於亞太地區最貧窮國家之一的印尼來 說，一切似乎順風順水，也許我們可以將 此簡單歸結為全球大宗商品市場復甦令 印尼的採礦業和林業獲益匪淺，不過眼下 「熱錢」看重的卻是蘇西洛本人的領袖才 華。國際貨幣基金組織對蘇西洛將軍和他 的中央銀行在環球信貸危機中的出色表現 大加讚賞（見下文）。穆迪近期則把印尼 的Ba3級政府債券調高評級，從「穩定」升 為「正面」，理由是在蘇西洛政府「日益 奏效的宏觀經濟政策框架」下「增長動力 強勁」。
All very encouraging. But perhaps the most significant trend has been happening on the political front. At home, Yudhoyono has acquired a reputation for openness and plain dealing which his rivals find it hard to match. Abroad, he is remembered as the instigator of Indonesia’s decisive response to the Bali bombing of 2002, which killed 202 people and whose perpetrators were tracked down and finally executed in November 2008. Yudhoyono is said to have excellent personal relations with Bali bombing in 2002
Indonesian President, General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato’ Seri Abdullah bin Haji Ahmad Badawi
Barack Obama, who is planning a state visit to Indonesia this year.
大好形勢下，政治層面的進步尤其令人 矚目。在國內，蘇西洛的開明清廉家喻戶 曉，遠非其競爭對手可比。在國外，他被 認為是印尼果斷處理2002年峇里島爆炸案 的幕後英雄，此案奪去202條性命，兇手終 被繩之以法並於2008年11月處決。據說蘇 西洛與奧巴馬私交甚深，後者正打算今年 出訪印尼。
However, all this international approval doesn’t mean that the electoral process will necessarily be a shoo-in for the incumbent president. To be re-elected at the first round, Yudhoyono will need to win 50% of the total votes cast on 8th July, plus at least 20% of the vote in at least half of the 33 national provinces.
But if he fails to reach this threshold, the vote will go to a second round in September. The interval would give his adversaries plenty of time to regroup and to step up their grass-roots campaigns. So it’s not all over yet.
不過，這些國際上的肯定並不表示蘇西 洛的競選之路將會一帆風順。在7月8日的 第一輪選舉中，蘇西洛需要贏得五成選 票，另加33個省份中至少一半省份的20%選 票，否則就得在9月份舉行第二輪選舉。前 後兩輪的間隔或會給他的對手們以可乘之 機重新集結，及煽動草根階層，所以未來 仍有變數。
Meanwhile, we shouldn’t let ourselves be too badly distracted by that 4.4% economic growth figure during the first quarter of 2009. By most estimates, the
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
14
Economy
the strength of Indonesia’s own consumer market has played a significant role in keeping it on course
Mall Taman Anggrek, translated to “Orchid Garden Mall” in English
galvanised the economy with a range of high-profile public construction projects including bridges, roads and airports. But, with a value of barely US$30 per person, the government package is puny compared with other countries in the region are spending. The impact of the plan, in other words, is political rather than economic. But then again, if it brings the voters onside for Yudhoyono, maybe that won’t be so bad.
PHOTOGRAPH © MEFFI
現在我們來談談為什麼印尼能在這場信 貸危機中獨善其身。有別於區內大多數國 家，印尼的外貿依存度相對於整體經濟不 算太高，所以當泰國，韓國等鄰國的出口 暴跌30-50%之際，印尼的國內消費市場 卻在危機中發揮了中流砥柱作用。蘇西洛 推出73萬億盧比（73億美元）經濟刺激計 劃，透過建造橋樑，公路和機場等大型公 共建設項目提振經濟，此舉無疑為他加分 不少。只是這份計劃跟區內其他國家相 比實在是小手筆，分攤到人頭才30美元而 已，換個角度看，它的政治意義要大於經 濟意義。不過，若能討得選民歡心，又何 樂而不為。
country’s economy was benefiting from a short-term boost that actually came from the national parliamentary election itself. All that campaign spending, all that pork-barrel politicking and all those ‘timely’ adjustments to the economic statistics will have had an effect on the overall result. It would be more than enough if the second-quarter figures showed a 2% annual rise, at a time when most of the smaller Asia-Pacific countries look set to fall by 4-8%. 與此同時，我們也不該被2009年一季度 4.4%的經濟增長衝昏頭腦。根據大多數估 計，印尼的經濟增長其實是得益於國會選 舉本身的短期刺激。考慮到所有的選舉 開支，「政治紅包」還有經濟統計的「適 時」調整，整體經濟數據難免會受影響。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
展望第二季度，亞太地區多數小國家的經 濟都要萎縮4-8%左右，所以印尼的經濟能 增長2%就算不錯。
All of which brings us back to the reasons why Indonesia has had such an easy ride through the year of the credit crunch. Unlike most of the region, Jakarta’s reliance on foreign trade is small in relation to the size of its overall economy. So, while neighbours such as Thailand or South Korea have been grappling with 30-50% falls in their exports, the strength of Indonesia’s own consumer market has played a significant role in keeping it on course. Obviously, Yudhoyono deserves full personal credit for having launched a Rp73 trillion (US$7.3bn) stimulus package which has
Finally, we shouldn’t forget that the last twelve months have been a whiteknuckle ride for foreign investors. The central bank’s successful policy during the credit crunch year has been to let the rupiah plummet from 9,500 to the US dollar to almost 13,000 in October 2008 - and then to let it float back up again to 10,000 in mid-2009 as the recovery got under way. All’s well that ends well, you might say. But it would be a foolish investor who overlooked the possibility that the currency upset might happen again. We can expect more volatility.
最後一點，過去十二個月對外國投資 者來說可謂風聲鶴唳，而印尼央行臨危 不亂，決策英明，先是使盧比兌美元的 匯率從9,500大幅貶值到2008年10月的將近 13,000，又在經濟踏上復甦軌道後使匯率回 升到2009年中期的10,000。也許你會說「結 果好則萬事好」，但若因此忽視幣值再度反 復的可能，那將極不明智。可以預見未來 將有更大波動。|AT|
Economy
15
菲律賓的鬥志 Fighting spirit in the
Philippines 作者/by Steve Lunt
To battle with a monster
recession, you need fighting spirit – and there seems to be plenty of it around the Philippines. Perhaps this should come as no surprise: the country’s national hero Manny Pacquaio is now widely regarded as one of the greatest boxers the world has ever seen, and the modest 30 yearold Filipino fighter has already become a legend in his own short life-time.
了這個國家的信心重重一擊，它用十分悲 觀的口吻描述了菲律賓經濟的前景。那 麼，菲國的商業翹楚們是否還能揮出重 拳，擊敗困難呢？
The Problems
The IMF now expects the country’s economy to contract for the first time
since the Asian financial crisis more than a decade ago. It says the impact on the Philippines of the global economic crunch will be worse than it initially expected, and predicts that the country is more likely to experience a one per cent decline in its GDP this year. The agency says a weaker demand for exports
要想抵禦洪水猛獸般的經濟衰退，你需要 有頑強的鬥志，而菲律賓人從不缺少鬥 志。說來並不奇怪，因為菲律賓的民族英 雄帕奎奧（Manny Pacquaio）就是舉世公 認的最偉大拳擊手之一，這位謙遜有加， 年僅三十的菲律賓拳王，已然化身為一部 傳奇。
But the International Monetary Fund has just delivered a challenging blow to the nation’s confidence by reporting more pessimistically on the outlook for the Philippines economy - so can the country’s business leaders take a hard punch, and still come out swinging?
然而國際貨幣基金組織的一份報告卻給 JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
16
Economy PHOTOGRAPH © AUTAN
美國和歐洲是菲律賓最大的兩個出口市 場，而據國家統計局統計，1-4月菲律賓的 出口已比去年同期驟降36%。
and lower domestic consumption are contributing factors in the downturn.
問題 IMF目前預料菲律賓經濟或會出現十多年 前亞洲金融危機以來的首次衰退，稱環球 經濟危機對菲律賓的影響比當初設想的更 糟，估計今年GDP很可能下滑1%。該機構 表示，疲弱的出口需求和萎縮的國內消費 是經濟倒退的主因。
The United States and Europe are two of the Philippines’ biggest export markets, but the National Statistics Office has just reported that the country’s exports plunged 36 percent in January to April compared with the same period last year.
The IMF also noted a decline in remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), which affect household consumption. The agency expects OFW remittances to fall by 4 percent in 2009 from last year’s $16.4 billion, which would also contribute to this year’s contraction. IMF又指，菲律賓海外勞工（下稱 「外勞」）的匯款減少影響到家庭消費， 預料2009年外勞匯款總額將比去年的164億 美元下降四個百份點，這也是今年經濟萎 縮的原因之一。
The Solutions?
While still expecting positive growth this year, the government has cut its target to between 0.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent, due to the “larger impact of the global crisis on the domestic economy”.
解題 雖然政府預料今年經濟仍可增長，但已 把目標下調到0.8-1.8%，主要考慮到「環球 危機對國內經濟的巨大衝擊」。
The regional IMF mission chief Il Houng Lee says the only way the Philippines could prevent a contraction this year would be for the government to shore up public spending to a very high level. But he recognises this would harm the country’s fiscal condition and its credit standing with international and domestic financial markets. Such low confidence in the government would lead to higher interest rates on its borrowings, and increase its already high public sector debt. PHOTOGRAPH © richard kenneth rivera
SM Mall of Asia, the biggest mall in the Philippines
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Economy
17
“We always practise financial management conservatism. This practice has made JFC ride out past economic and financial challenges unscathed.” —Tony Tan Caktiong, CEO Jollibee Food Corp.
Tony Tan Caktiong, CEO Jollibee Food Corp
IMF駐本地區代表Il Houng Lee表示，菲政 府避免今年經濟衰退的唯一辦法是大力增加 公共開支。但他承認，這會損害菲律賓的 財政狀況及其在國際國內金融市場的信用地 位。政府底氣不足就得為借債付出更高利 息，令本已沉重的公共債務雪上加霜。
The Philippines government is allowing itself a budget deficit equivalent to 2.5 percent of this year’s GDP. While the IMF believes this could be raised to 3.5 percent of GDP to maximize the impact of public spending on the economy without adversely affecting credit standing, Lee says containing the fiscal gap within that range is important considering the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 54 percent, which is one of the highest in the region. 菲政府給自己設定的預算赤字上限為今 年GDP的2.5%。Lee表示，因為菲律賓的債 務佔GDP比重已達54%，是區內最高的國 家之一，所以必須得把財政缺口控制在這 個範圍內。但是IMF認為，要想使公共開 支對經濟的提振效應最大化又不致損害信 用地位，這個限度得提高到3.5%。
So, as the country faces this Big Prize Fight where it must parry and thrust to protect and promote its economy, the business community will have to knockout the formidable challengers brought on by the recession. And this is where that Filipino fighting spirit could make itself useful in the ring.
看來，菲律賓確實面臨著一場艱巨考 驗，必須兼顧防守與攻擊，方能保護和促 進經濟，而商界也要克服衰退帶來的巨大 挑戰，現在是展現菲律賓人頑強鬥志的時 候了。
Food for Thought
Jollibee Foods Corporation are the country’s leading fast-food chain, recently voted the “most-admired” company in the Philippines following a recent survey of international business leaders - where
JFC was noted for its ability to stimulate local consumer spending despite the economic slump.
思考 快樂蜂餐飲集團（Jollibee Foods Corporation）是菲律賓首屈一指的快餐連 鎖企業。在近期一項國際商業領袖調查 中，快樂蜂被評為該國「最受欽佩」的公 司，其最突出之處是能夠在經濟不景氣時 刺激國內消費者的開支。
The company has recently reached further into a broad-based market through its chain Manong Pepe, which makes local food accessible to people on very low daily budgets. They’ve also sought to develop interdependent relationships with local farmers and suppliers in rural communities, as part of its value chain.
近年來，公司通過旗下的Manong Pepe連 鎖店佔領了廣大市場，其制勝法寶就是以 非常實惠的價格供應地方美食。另外還與 當地農村的農戶和供應商建立起互助關 係，作為其價值鏈的一部份。
Jollibee’s Chairman Tony Tan Caktiong is confident about the Philippines prospects, as he believes there’s a typical natural restraint over spending – both at government levels and with individual consumers.
快樂蜂總裁陳覺中堅定看好菲律賓的未 來，他認為在開支上不論是政府還是個人 消費者都有一種天生的節儉精神。
In a recent interview with the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Tan Caktiong said “We always practise financial management conservatism. This practice has made JFC ride out past economic and financial challenges unscathed. In 2008, when everyone was reeling from high commodity prices and financial markets were on the brink of collapse, JFC were very busy investing for the future. Because of our financial conservatism, JFC has been operating without debt for many years. For the most part, our investment in new stores, commissaries and acquisitions were financed by cash generated by our own business. As a result, we have been able to sustain healthy profit consistently over the years.”
最近接受《菲律賓每日調查》 （Philippine Daily Inquirer）訪問時，陳覺中 說道：「我們一貫踐行節儉理財，正是這 種做法讓快樂蜂安然度過一次次經濟和財 政困難。2008年，當每個人都被高漲的商 品價格嚇得不知所措，金融市場搖搖欲墜 之際，快樂蜂卻在忙著為未來投資鋪路。 因為財政上的節儉，多年來快樂蜂是無債 一身輕。一般來說，我們投資於新店，原 料採購和兼併收購，用的都是自身業務產 生的現金，因而得以許多年來始終保持穩 健的盈利。」
Tan Caktiong believes the Philippines central bank - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - is a good example of the financial conservatism that’s so typical in the Philippines, which helps the country avoid those risks that come from too much spending. In its recent survey the Bank noted that ordinary Filipinos tend to follow this careful tradition, as families of OFWs are investing more than they used to during these difficult times. 陳覺中認為菲律賓中央銀行（Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas）就是國人節儉精神的代 表，央行使國家避免了過度開支的風險。 在近期的調查中，央行指出在當前的困難 時期，外勞的家庭比從前更多地把錢用在 JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
18
Economy
投資上，可見菲律賓百姓保持著小心謹慎 的傳統。
Sparks of Energy
Since the 1970s, MD Juan Enterprises have been making and exporting ‘new but old’ vintage Jeep bodies and parts to collectors of the famous World War Two U.S. military vehicles. Most of their buyers were in the US, Canada, and Europe. But these export markets have been badly hit by the current global crisis, with sales plummeting at an “alarming rate” - by 50 percent - according to their Vice-President of Marketing and Sales, Rommel Juan.
新路 自從七十年代以來，MD Juan Enterprises一直從事製造和出口吉普老爺 車的車身和配件，買主則是這種二戰時期 著名的美國軍車的藏家，他們大多來自美 國，加拿大和歐洲。然而環球經濟危機 下，出口市場遭到重創，銷售業績一落千 丈，負責市場推廣和銷售的副總裁胡安 （Rommel Juan）說萎縮幅度達到「驚人 的」五成。
(about US$13,000) to corporate buyers in the private and public sector across the archipelago.
危機爆發兩個月後，胡安意識到要想生 存下去，必須把目光放到本國市場。於 是他們銳意創新，研製出一種環保乘用 車——「電動吉普尼」（eJeepney）。2008年 9月第一部電動吉普尼下線，目前這款產品 售價625,000比索（約13,000美元），主要供 應國內私營和公營部門的公司買家。
Early domestic sales of the new eJeepney have already enabled MD Juan to recover some 50% of their export losses, and their future looks more promising now. Although eJeepneys are currently limited because of their low range - 65 kilometres - on one overnight charge, MD Juan are working on the development of faster charging batteries that deliver a greater mileage. Once this is viable the company can start to make real in-roads into the huge potential of the domestic market: their environmentally friendly units could eventually replace the 250,000 diesel fume-belching vehicles that swarm around the Philippines as the country’s main means of public transport. Their first goal is to replace the fleet of 70,000 jeepneys currently plying the streets of Metro Manila. 電動吉普尼投放國內市場不久，便讓 MD Juan彌補了大約五成的出口損失，其前 景可謂一片光明。現在的電動吉普尼還不 算十全十美，因為充電一夜只能行駛65公 里，但是MD Juan正在研製充電更快，單次 充電行程更長的電池。如果成功的話，就 能把國內市場的巨大潛力真正釋放出來： 他們的環保車將最終取代25萬輛噴著黑煙 穿行在菲律賓街頭的柴油車，成為國內主 要的公共交通工具。他們的初步目標是取 代馬尼拉市的7萬輛吉普尼。
Maximino “Minong” Dionisio Juan Founder of MD Juan Enterprises
to bring significant benefits to the environment, substantially reducing carbon emissions – because only clean air is left in their wake. 電動吉普尼排放的氣體是清潔的，十分 有益於環境，可大量減少碳排放，所以在 國際上也深受好評。
As Juan cheerfully says: “It’s during tough times that one characteristic of the Filipino stands out - his resiliency. If one door closes, another one opens. You just have to be there when it does!”
胡安得意地說：「時勢艱辛方顯菲律賓人 的本色，那就是百折不撓。東方不亮西方 亮，功夫不負有心人！」
Although this year’s prognosis is downbeat, the IMF are predicting the Philippines will experience a modest recovery to 2.5 percent growth in 2010. And with the spirit of people like Pacquaio, Tan Caktiong and Juan leading the fight, there’s plenty of room for optimism in this sunny archipelago.
雖然今年前景黯淡，但IMF估計菲律賓 經濟將會在2010年溫和復甦，增長2.5%。 其實，只要具備帕奎奧，陳覺中和胡安這 些人的精神，這個陽光島國就足以笑面 困難。|AT|
Two months into the crisis Juan EJeepneys have also been recognised realised that in order to survive, the internationally as having the potential company needed to get into the local market. So they got creative, and developed an environmentally friendly passengercarrying vehicle - the ‘electric jeepney’. The first ‘eJeepney’ rolled off the production line in September 2008. The eJeepneys are now MD Juan Enterprises crew The electric powered ‘eJeepney’ selling for 625,000 pesos ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
19
Economy
China and The Dollar 中國看美元
- Just a Big Bluff? —說說而已？ 作者/by Michael Wilson
And those fixedrate bonds are only worth holding if the inflation rates in the countries that issue the bonds are expected to stay low enough to make the investment worthwhile.
China Construction Bank
Guo Shuqing, the chairman of
the China Construction Bank (CCB), is not used to making headlines in the Western press. But he certainly managed that on 8th June. The indomitable Mr Guo declared that the United States government ought to think seriously about issuing some of its treasury bonds in renminbi instead of dollars. A thought which didn’t elicit much more than a snort from the Treasury. But then, he wasn’t demanding that Washington should go the whole hog. A mere RMB 3 billion worth of US issues would make a big contribution toward kickstarting a “eurobond” market in the Chinese currency, he said. And it might perhaps eventually lead to full convertibility. 郭樹清，這位中國建設銀行的董 事長似乎還不習慣面對西方媒體 下達最後通牒，但他在6月8日確 實這麼做了。性格直率的郭先生 說，美國政府應該認真考慮發行 一些人民幣債券取代美元債券。 如此想法當然只會換來美國財政 部的嗤之以鼻。不過，郭先生的 本意並不是要華盛頓徹底改弦更 張。他說，只要美國發行30億人
民幣的債券，就會極大促進一個以中國貨 幣計值的「歐洲債券」市場的形成，也許 最終會促成人民幣的全面兌換。
There the matter would probably have stayed, had it not been for an earlier demand from Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People’s Bank of China, that the international community should create a new reserve currency to replace the dollar. Mr Zhou’s declaration had probably not been intended to be much more than a thought-provoking ‘position piece’ ahead of the forthcoming G20 summit meeting in London - but in its own way it was perfectly valid. Why, exactly, should the world continue to base its currency systems on the economic standing of a country which was once one of the world’s biggest exporters, but which is now by far its biggest debtor? A country which looks likely to notch up a $2 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2009?
不久前，中國人民銀行行長周小川也呼 籲國際社會創造一種新的儲備貨幣來取代 美元。或許周先生的講話只是想給倫敦的 G20峰會提個醒，但絕對不是說說而已。當 一個曾經的全球頭號出口國已經淪落為最大 的債務國，當這個國家2009財年的預算赤字 直逼兩萬億美元的時候，為什麼還要把全世 界的貨幣體制緊系於這個國家的信用地位？
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
20
Economy
That thought was clearly preoccupying Premier Wen Jiabao back in March, when he asked the US to guarantee the safety of China’s US debt. It was not that he really feared that America might actually default on the estimated $1.5 trillion of dollar holdings that dominates the central bank’s foreign currency reserves. Rather, he was calling on President Barack Obama to take responsibility for the likelihood that America’s colossal budget overspend will necessitate a vast bond issuance.
Premier Wen Jiabao
其實早在三月份，溫家寶總理就有過這 樣的念頭，他呼籲美國保證中國手中的美 國債務的安全。他並不是害怕美國賴賬不 還，危及央行外匯儲備中佔絕大多數的 1.5萬億美元。事實上，他是在敦促奧巴馬 總統認真對待美國因為龐大的預算虧空被 迫大舉借債的可能性。
Mr Wen wasn’t wrong. On 2nd June, the Bank for International Settlements reported that net US government bond issuance in the first quarter of 2009 had risen to $344 billion - nearly six times the levels of the previous quarter. US companies, too, had quadrupled their issues to $179 billion. The Western press did its best to portray this as a sign that the international money markets were returning to health. But others thought they knew better.
Bank for International Settlements
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
溫先生說的沒錯。6月2日，國際結算銀 行報告稱2009年一季度美國政府債券發行 量達3,440億美元，幾乎六倍於上個季度。 同期，美國企業債券發行量也增加四倍， 達到1,790億美元。西方媒體盡其所能將此 描繪成是國際貨幣市場恢復健康的信號， 但明眼人一望便知媒體的言不由衷。
The essential problem with China’s vast holdings of US government bonds is that the overwhelming majority carry fixed rates of interest. And those fixedrate bonds are only worth holding if the inflation rates in the countries that issue the bonds are expected to stay low enough to make the investment worthwhile. So, if Beijing buys 10-year bonds this year with a market yield of 3.7%, it will be very unhappy if it thinks that US inflation might hit 4% at any time during those ten years, because the bonds will effectively be ‘under water’. It would become even less happy if other people feared the same thing, because then there’d be a real danger of a stampede out of US paper.
中國大量持有美國國債的一個根本問題 是這些債券絕大多數都是固定利息的。對 於定息債券來說，只有當發債國的預期通 脹率保持足夠低時，這些債券才值得持 有。假設北京今年購買十年期債券，市場 收益率為3.7%，那麼未來十年一旦美國的 通脹率達到4%，對北京就非常不利，因為
這些債券事實上已無價值可言。而且，如 果別人也有如此擔心，那就更糟了，因為 這將引發拋售美國債券的風險。
What would happen then? The dollar would fall heavily, and Beijing would be faced with a second layer of capital losses on top of the painful yield losses it was already making. That’s quite a sobering prospect, considering that Japan and China between them are currently believed to be covering more than 60% of America’s new government bond issues. 接下來美元將急劇貶值，本已顆粒無收 的北京，此時又要面臨虧本的危險。這是 一個必須正視的現實，因為新發行的美國 政府債券中，據信有六成多都是日本和中 國兩家認購的。|AT|
Economy
21
The Different View from Washington 華盛頓的小算盤
A return to high inflation? Surely that couldn’t happen? Well, possibly it could - and at Washington’s instigation too. America’s consumer prices fell by a worrying 1.7% in the year to May 2009, and even the most optimistic scenarios depict a 0.8% fall for the year as a whole. So these days, the US government is really rather keen to get inflation restarted.
重回高通脹時代是不可能的嗎？當然不 是，這也正中華盛頓下懷。2009年5月美國 的消費者物價大跌1.7%，縱使最樂觀的預 測全年也要下滑0.8%，所以如今的美國政 府其實更想重新啟動通脹。
The problem with deflation is that it encourages consumers to postpone buying things that they might otherwise have bought today. And that’s bad for economic growth. So when President Barack Obama announced his $787 billion stimulus programme earlier this year, he was fully aware that the huge issue of US government bonds he would soon be making would create some very big, and hopefully beneficial, inflationary pressures. Besides, he might have said, inflation helps borrowers because it drives down the effective burden of their
Washington
debts. So, as long as it doesn’t get out of hand - and let’s remember, US consumer price inflation was 4.2% only a year ago! - rising prices are a win-win situation. 一旦陷入通貨緊縮，消費者便會捂緊銀 包推遲消費，這對經濟增長十分不利。 因此，當奧巴馬總統今年初宣佈7,870億 美元的經濟刺激計劃時，他對不久後大量 發行國債所可能造成的嚴重的（但願是有 益的）通脹壓力已是心知肚明。也許他會 說，通脹對借債者有好處，因為它能減輕 債務負擔，故而只要情況還沒失控（別 忘了一年前美國的消費者物價指數只有 4.2%），物價上漲就是雙贏的。
Alas, only for US institutions! Everyone else loses. And it ought to be clear that Mr Wen’s perspective is rather different from Mr Obama’s. 遺憾的是，這當中的贏家只有美國機 構，其他人皆為輸家。要知道，溫先生的 看法可跟奧巴馬先生截然不同。
In the final analysis, however, there is a certain element of theatre in all
U.S, President Barrack Obama
this. China is undoubtedly justified in its demand for a readjustment of the international currency basket that currently underpins central bank valuations. And it has a right to be worried about US budgetary policy, for all the reasons we’ve explored. But, as long as the central bank holds such a colossal volume of US debt - around six months’ worth of its own GDP - it cannot weaken the dollar’s international desirability without inflicting fairly severe pain on itself. Effectively, most of the exit routes are already closed. 然而，這一切又都是不得已而為之。中 國無疑有合情合理的需要來重新調整目前 作為央行估值基礎的國際貨幣籃子。出於 方方面面的原因，中國也的確有權擔心美 國的預算政策。可是，既然央行已經沾手 如此龐大的美國債務（約佔全年GDP的一 半），那就沒法輕易削弱美元的國際地位又 不致傷及自身。畢竟，大多數的退路都已 被堵住。|AT|
The problem with deflation is that it encourages consumers to postpone buying things that they might otherwise have bought today. And that’s bad for economic growth. JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
22
Economy
MALAYSIA
Taking Care of Business 馬來西亞
作者/by David Bowden
新興的國際營商中心 As the economies of the region
continue to be dragged into the global economic meltdown most companies are seeking traditional and innovative ways to cut back on their expenses. Some are even reassessing whether they continue to operate in the region and if they do, as to whether they maintain their headquarters in their current location or relocate to more favourable centres. 隨著本地區各經濟體深陷全球衰退泥潭， 許多公司都在尋求傳統與創新的途徑削減 開支。有的公司已在考慮是否繼續留在本 地區，如果決定留下，則公司總部是原地 不動，還是擇優遷往別的中心。
The region’s existing financial capitals of Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore are no longer cheap locations in which to operate and secondary cities ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
was built up brick by brick with visionary leadership and with the support of the populace. PHOTOGRAPH © Shamshahrin
such as the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur look increasingly more appealing these days. 放眼區內現有的金融中心，東京，上 海，香港和新加坡的營商成本已然不低。 相比之下，諸如馬來西亞首都吉隆坡這樣 的二線城市，吸引力則越來越大。
How does Kuala Lumpur shape up as a centre for business and a place for expatriates to live in?
那麼，吉隆坡是否有潛力成為營商中心 和外籍僱員的家園？
Economic Miracle on Hold It has also been claimed that Malaysia’s success has been somewhat of an economic miracle. Others on the ground note that what has been achieved with the economy is not a miracle but rather one that required hard work and which
Prime Minister and Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak
大馬奇跡 有人說馬來西 亞的成功是個經 濟奇跡，也有人 說經濟上的成就 與其說是奇跡， 毋寧說是全體 國民在英明領導 下，通過一磚一 瓦的積累和艱苦 奮鬥換來的成 果。
While it once recorded solid annual economic growth the Malaysian economy has been affected by declining exports and lower manufacturing production. Over the past 12 months exports have slumped 15.6% and industrial production fell in March for the seventh month in a row and down 4.4% over the past year. The decline has
Economy
23
been the steepest the country has ever experienced but revised GDP figures still predict a growth of between 0.9% and 1.3% for the year with a turn around expected in the second half of the year. These declines have been offset by a stronger than expected domestic market and a slight drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.5%. 儘管全年經濟穩步增長，但馬來西亞也 受到出口下滑和製造業萎縮的衝擊。過 往十二個月出口下滑15.6%，3月份工業生 產連續第七個月下跌，去年萎縮4.4%，這 是該國經歷的最嚴重的衰退。不過，經修 訂GDP數據顯示全年增長仍能達到0.9%至 1.3%左右，而且預料下半年就會走出低 谷。得益於國內市場比預期強勁，加上全 年通脹率輕微降至3.5%，故而抵銷出口和 製造業疲弱的影響。
Prime Minister and Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak took office in March replacing the outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. The new PM’s liberalisation package announced in April was designed to attract foreign investment. One of the key strategies is to eliminate local equity requirements in parts of the service industry.
今年3月，納吉（Najib Abdul Razak）接 替前任首相巴達維（Abdullah Badawi）出任 首相兼財政部長。4月，新首相公佈自由化 政策旨在吸引外資，其中一條重要策略是 解除部份服務業的本土企業參股規定。
Even prior to this package Malaysia has been considered by many to have an edge over several of its neighbours. In its ‘Offshore Location Attractiveness Index’, global management consultants A.T. Kearney note that Malaysia is among the top three contenders for offshoring business in the world. They state that it is a ‘natural choice’ for offshore services in view of its low costs, particularly for infrastructure, the most attractive environment among emerging markets and, its high levels of global integration.
其實在此之前，馬來西亞就被許多人所 看好，認為大馬相比幾個鄰國更具優勢。 環球管理諮詢機構科爾尼（A.T. Kearney） 在其編撰的「離岸地區吸引力指數」 （Offshore Location Attractiveness Index）中 指出，馬來西亞是世界上最具實力爭奪離 岸商務的三個國家之一。該機構稱，大 馬的低成本，尤其是基礎設施，新興市場 中最具吸引力的環境以及高度的全球化程 度，令該國成為離岸服務的「必然選擇」。
Diversified Economy Malaysia is fortunate in having abundant natural resources from timber to oil as well as fertile soil. This has provided a solid foundation and a basis for past economic growth. However, what was once a primary resources-driven economy based upon rubber and oil palm plantations, supported by logging, tin mining and oil has now diversified into manufacturing and services.
Malaysia’s much heralded Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) centred on the new administrative capital of Putrajaya and its adjoining Cyberjaya, located 30 minutes south of Kuala Lumpur, supports the latest telecommunications infrastructure.
多元經濟
被人津津樂道的「多媒體超級走廊」 （Multimedia Super Corridor，簡稱MSC） ， 覆蓋新行政首都普特拉賈亞（Putrajaya） 和相鄰的賽柏賈亞（Cyberjaya） ，距吉隆坡 南部半小時路程，支援最先進的電訊基礎 設施。
馬來西亞擁有得天獨厚的自然條件，土 壤肥沃，森林，石油等資源豐富，這為國 家奠定堅實基礎，亦是過往經濟增長的有 力保障。曾幾何時，馬來西亞還是一個依 靠初級資源經濟的國家，主要經濟活動是 橡膠和油棕種植，輔以伐木，錫礦開採和 石油。而今的馬來西亞早已形成製造業和 服務業並舉的多元經濟體系。
全球經濟危機固然拖慢了大馬繼續前進 的腳步，但相比一些貿易夥伴，馬來西亞 抵禦金融動盪的能力顯然更強。
The economy is now manufacturingbased, export-driven and supplemented by high technology knowledge-based and a capital-intensive service industries. 今天的經濟以製造業為基礎，以出口為 驅動，輔以高科技知識產業和資本密集型 服務業。
While current global economic crisis has stalled the nation’s ongoing growth, Malaysia has weathered the financial turbulence better than some of its trading partners.
Political stability, sound economic financial policies and a strong resource base have helped. Trade figures are still healthy and today, Malaysia is the world’s 18th leading exporting nation. Manufacturing accounts for a little over 30% of GDP, although the current
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
24
Economy
economic downturn has affected this. Almost 80% of the country’s total exports are derived from the manufactured goods sector with semi-conductor devices, audio and video products, home airconditioners and computer hard disks being the main items. 穩定的政局，妥當的經濟政策及堅實的 資源基礎，這些都是馬來西亞的優勢。貿 易狀況保持穩健，如今馬來西亞已是全球 排名18的出口大國。雖然受到經濟下滑影 響，製造業佔GDP比重仍在30%以上，以 半導體設備，影音產品，家用空調和電腦 硬盤為主的製造品，佔到出口總額的將近 八成。
Connectivity and Education Malaysia’s well-developed and coordinated infrastructure provides an important framework that supports manufacturing. This includes an international airport hub, well-equipped seaports, an integrated road system and an advanced telecommunications network.
a high quality of life for themselves and their family. Malaysia and especially the capital city of Kuala Lumpur offer this with good educational opportunities, transportation, shopping and recreational facilities, nearby holiday destinations, excellent medical facilities, value-formoney housing and excellent recreational opportunities.
要想讓僱員真正融入金融和工業化氛圍， 需要給他們及其家人提供高質素的生活。馬 來西亞特別是首都吉隆坡擁有良好的教育， 交通，購物和康樂設施，毗鄰度假勝地，醫 療設施先進，住房廉宜，生活便利。 Outdoor shopping: ‘The Curve’ in Kuala Lumpur
馬來西亞擁有發達完備的基礎設施，包 括國際空港樞紐，設施完善的港口，四通 八達的公路系統和先進的電訊網絡，為製 造業提供有力保障。
This is driven by a well-educated populace with a literacy rate of 94%. Many of the population that exceeds 26 million are bilingual and English is understood by a good percentage of the population.
國民普遍受過良好教育，識字率達94%， 超過2,600萬人能講兩種語言，許多人通曉 英語。
優質生活 馬來西亞與世界的經濟和金融聯繫日 益增強，更有優越的生活質素。2008年， 吉隆坡入選Mastercard全球「最佳金融城 市」 ，排名50位。
But those who want to be part of the financial and industrial scene also want ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
跟東京，上海，香港和新加坡這些金融 中心相比，馬來西亞的生活成本相當低 廉。國際學校雖比本地學校貴不少，但較 區內其他國際學校便宜許多。首都有多家 國際學校開辦海外課程，跟英國，美國， 澳洲，日本，德國，法國等接軌。
While Kuala Lumpur is within a short air flight of all its neighbouring South East Asian nations there are many local holiday destinations for expatriates seeking a weekend or more extended escape. These range from the duty-free resort island of Langkawi to cool highland retreats, diving on worldclass reefs located around idyllic islands, rainforest adventures and, cultural encounters on the island of Borneo.
從吉隆坡搭乘航班，不久便可抵達周邊 的東南亞鄰國。馬來西亞有許多度假勝 地，方便外籍僱員週末度假，享受悠長假 期，例如免稅度假天堂蘭卡威島，涼爽宜 人的高原山莊，美麗小島的世界級珊瑚礁 潛水樂園，熱帶雨林探險，還有婆羅洲島 的人文風情。
交通發達 教育普及
Quality of Life Malaysia’s high quality of life complements the country’s rising economy and financial connectivity. In 2008, Mastercard placed Kuala Lumpur at number 50 on its list of ‘Best Financial Cities’ in the world.
country are much more expensive than the local schools, they too are more competitively priced than many others in the region. Several international schools in the capital follow overseas curriculums of various countries including the United Kingdom, USA, Australia, Japan, Germany and France.
Malaysia is also a multicultural country dominated by Malays, Chinese and Indians but also with over 20 distinctive native cultures on peninsular Malaysia and the East Malaysian states of Sarawak and Sabah on the island of Borneo. 馬來西亞是一個多元文化國家，國民以 馬來裔，華裔和印度裔為主，另有20多個 少數民族原住民生活在馬來半島，以及東 部婆羅洲島上的沙撈越與沙巴二州。
The cost of living is still very competitive when compared to the more expensive financial capitals of Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore. While the international schools in the
One-Stop Shop The Malaysian Government is keen to attract foreign investment and has established the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) as a one-stop shop to facilitate the development of the manufacturing and services sectors in the country. There is a global network of 16 overseas offices and a well-developed website (www.mida. gov.my) as the first point of reference for those interested in relocating their business to Malaysia.
一站式服務 大馬政府致力吸引外資，並為此成立 馬來西亞工業發展局（MIDA） ，旨在 提供一站式服務促進本國的製造業和 服務業發展。該局擁有一個由16家海 外辦事處組成的環球網絡，官方網站 （www.mida.gov.my）內容詳盡，務求 為有意前來大馬營商的人士提供第一手 資料。|AT|
World News
25
IOSCO & ReGULATION IOSCO與監管 Dreams of a Global Approach to Financial Regulation begin to shatter 全球化金融監管美夢難圓 作者/by Ian Fraser
The consensus among academics and policymakers is that a more globally consistent approach to financial regulation will ensure there is no epeat of the credit crisis. However, since Asia has been less traumatised than developed markets such as the US or UK, policymakers in the region are beginning to wonder what’s in it for them. Ian Fraser reports. 學術界和政策制定者們普遍認為，全球一致的金融監管可確 保信貸危機不再重演。然而，因為亞洲受到的衝擊遠不如美 國，英國等發達市場，本地區的決策者們對全球化的金融監 管莫衷一是。Ian Fraser報道
done. Loopholes in the global regulatory framework had left large tracts of the global financial markets - including hedge funds, credit derivatives and the shadow banking system - in a regulationfree zone. 就在去年秋天的銀行和金融危機爆發 後，人們意識到採取措施已是迫在眉睫。 環球監管體系的漏洞給世界金融市場留下 巨大隱患，諸如對沖基金，信貸衍生產 品，不透明的銀行業制度都是監管上的空 白地帶。
Meanwhile flawed assumptions about market efficiency had meant that even regulated activities had been inadequately supervised. Post-crisis, there were strident calls for a thorough shake-up of financial regulation - particularly in the developed markets where the crisis was spawned. 人們曾經想當然地以為市場是有效率 的，可即便是受規管的活動其實也沒有得 到充份監管。危機過後，要求徹底改革金 融監管（尤其是危機源頭的發達市場）的 呼聲不絕於耳。
The consensus among commen
tators and regulators is that, if crises such as the banking and financial crisis of 2008 are to be avoided in future, the world is going to have to adopt a more joined-up, globally consistent approach to financial regulation. 評論界和監管界普遍認為，要想避免 2008年的銀行和金融危機重演，世界各國 需要採取一種更加齊心協力，步調一致的 辦法對待金融監管。
“One of the causes of the crisis is that there was a lot of regulatory arbitrage going on, resulting in a race to the bottom in terms of quality of supervision,” said Hans Hoogervorst, chairman of the
Netherlands’ Authority for Financial Markets at the conference of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in early June. “It’s absolutely essential we work together on a world scale to improve the standardsetting process.” 「危機的根源之一是有太多的監管套 利機會，誘使人們競相挑戰監管質素的 底限，」荷蘭金融市場管理局總裁Hans Hoogervorst在6月初的國際證券事務監察委 員會組織（IOSCO）大會上說道：「所以 我們絕對有必要在世界範圍內改進製定標 準的程序。 」
In the immediate aftermath of the banking and financial crisis last autumn, it was obvious something had to be
Nine months on, the impetus for reform is losing momentum. Governments and regulators are finding that rewriting the regulatory rule-book is easier said than done. Since the panic subsided and with banks and financial markets stabilised the pressure for reform has dissipated.
九個月過去了，改革的動力卻在消失。政 府和監管者們發現重訂監管規則是說易行 難，既然恐慌已經平息，銀行和金融市場 也穩定下來，改革也就不再迫切。
The reform packages that are being unveiled by governments in the US, UK and European Union have come as a disappointment to believers in reform. In the US, for example, the government has failed to address critical areas such as ‘fair-value’ accounting, the regulation of credit ratings agencies and the
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
26
World News Photograph © The Associated Press
的是，這也許會成為一個新生的 環球監管體系的絆腳石。
Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer, during the IOSCO 2009 Conference
composition of bank boards; instead these have been kicked into the long grass of further “consultation” and “review”. 美國，英國及歐盟推出的改革計劃讓改 革派大失所望。以美國為例，政府根本沒 有觸及「公允價值」會計，信貸評級機構 監管，銀行董事會結構這樣的關鍵領域， 只拿加強「諮詢」和「檢討」這些老生常 談的話題了事。
The package of reforms unveiled by the administration of President Barack Obama on June 18 - which included the granting of new systemic risk powers to the Federal Reserve and the launch of additional regulatory bodies including a consumer protection agency – may paradoxically impede the chances of a new global regulatory framework.
6月18日，巴拉克·奧巴馬總統領導下的 政府出台改革方案，有關舉措包括授予聯 儲局新的監督系統性風險的權力，成立新 的監管機構如消費者保護局等。然而矛盾
Clive Crook, a Financial Times columnist, has warned that the creation of additional regulatory bodies, apparently an attempt by Treasury secretary Tim Geithner to humour Congress, will have the downside of making future international cooperation – for example between US and Asian regulators – even harder to achieve.
《金融時報》專欄作家Clive Crook警告 說，成立更多的監管機構顯然是蓋特納財 長敷衍國會之舉，這將使得今後的國際合 作，比如美國與亞洲監管當局的合作難上 加難。
“Aside from poor oversight of the shadow banking system and the systemwide failure to account properly for risk, the biggest weakness in the existing regulatory scheme has been lack of crossborder co-operation between national regulators,” said Crook. “The more complicated the structure the harder it will be for US regulators to work with their counterparts abroad.” Crook 指出：「除了對不透明的銀行業缺 乏監管，以及整個系統普遍存在的風險評 估不當之外，現有監管體系的最大弱點是 各國監管當局之間缺少跨國合作，而架構 越複雜，就越不利於美國監管者與外國同 行的合作。」
Such issues were on the agenda at
the annual conference of IOSCO held in Tel Aviv, Israel, in early June. At the event financial regulators agreed that it is essential that globally harmonised approaches towards financial regulation should be adopted, particularly where globally-traded securities such as credit derivatives are concerned.
6月初在以色列特拉維夫舉行的IOSCO年 會上，這些問題被提上日程。與會的金融 監管者們認為有必要採取全球步調一致的 辦法實施金融監管，尤其是對全球交易證 券如信貸衍生產品的監管。
At the conference it was stressed that the EU and the US must adopt a common and consistent approach to the regulation of derivatives, whether or not this involves forcing the trading of all over-the-counter derivatives onto regulated exchanges. Regulators warned that “gaps” in supervision, similar to those that sparked the crisis, would otherwise be unavoidable. 大會強調，歐盟及美國必須採取共同而 一致的辦法監管衍生產品，不論這是否會 迫使所有場外交易的衍生產品回到有監管 的證券交易所進行交易。監管者們警告 說，如果不這麼做，類似於引發這場危機 的監管「缺口」仍將不可避免。
Eddy Wymeersch, chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators told the IOSCO conference: “It’s absolutely essential that the two big players are aligned because these markets are in fact the same market, the same instruments traded on both sides of the Atlantic.” 歐洲證券監管機構委員會主席Eddy Wymeersch在IOSCO大會上表示：「兩大 市場絕對有必要步調一致，因為大西洋兩 岸其實是同樣的市場，交易的也是同樣的 金融工具。」
However, senior regulators and standard-setters from the emerging markets seemed less convinced of the need for harmonised rules and regulations in the financial markets – even were credit derivatives are concerned. For the most part institutions operating in the region already abide by IFRS and Basel II bank rules, but there is still plenty of scope for divergence in other areas. Lehman’s Brothers HQ in New York
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
AIG building in Hong Kong
然而，新興市場的高層監管者和標準製 定者似乎對金融市場協調規則與監管的必 要性不以為然，即便涉及到信貸衍生產品
World News
亦是如此。儘管區內機構在許多領域已經 遵行國際財務報告準則（IFRS）和巴塞爾 II銀行規則，但仍有不少各行其是之處。
印度監管界並不認為需要對沽空加以限 制，因為他們覺得沽空是對股票定價準確 與否的一種良好檢驗與平衡。
現任IOSCO亞太區主席及印度證券交易 委員會主席CB Bhave在大會上警告說，全 球化的金融監管也許只是一場黃粱美夢。 他表示：「我們在大會上意識到，每個 國家都有自己的問題，監管趨同固然是妙 策，可我們面對的狀況畢竟不同，所以我 不知道它是否的確可行。」
或許正因如此，IOSCO才對棘手的沽空 問題態度曖昧，進而有意放手不同的司法 管轄區對此問題個別處理。IOSCO技術委 員會主席Kathleen Casey於6月22日表示： 「雖然IOSCO鼓勵採取更加一致的監管手 段對付沽空，但也意識到因為各地情況千 差萬別，所以各個司法管轄區的監管亦不 盡相同。」
CB Bhave, chairman of India’s Securities and Exchange Board, India, who was elected Asia-Pacific regional chairman of IOSCO at that the recent conference, warned that globalised financial regulation may turn out to be a pipe-dream. He said: “What we realised at the conference is that each country faces its own set of problems and while convergence of regulation is a good idea, I don’t know that it will work given the situations we face are really different,” he said.
Bhave pointed out that, unlike their counterparts in the US and UK, Indian regulators see no need to impose any limitations on short-selling as they regard the phenomenon as a good check and balance for determining the accuracy of share prices. Bhave指出，有別於美國和英國的同行，
This may lie behind IOSCO’s apparent vagueness on the thorny issue of shortselling - and its willingness to accept that different jurisdictions should be permitted to diverge on the matter. Kathleen Casey, chairman of IOSCO’s technical committee, said on June 22: “While IOSCO encourages a move towards a more concerted regulatory approach to short selling, it recognises that its regulation will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction depending on local circumstances.”
So as the West strives tighten up regulation in the wake of a hugely embarrassing crisis – some have compared it to shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted – is Asia going to sit on the sidelines? 當西方在巨大危機過後努力加強監管之
27
...in the wake of a hugely embarrassing crisis – some have compared it to shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted – is Asia going to sit on the sidelines? 際（有人將此喻為「亡羊補牢」） ，莫非亞 洲卻要無動於衷？
At the IOSCO conference, one thing was clear. The political hierarchies that once characterised thinking about future financial regulation have been shattered. The long-standing notion that financial markets in emerging economies should take their cue from more sophisticated markets such as US, UK, EU and Australasia no longer applies. At the very least, regulatory and political leaders in Asian economies will want to ensure their voice is heard loud and clear as the global financial architecture is remodeled. 在IOSCO大會上，有一個事實顯而易 見，那就是以政治地位高低定奪金融監管 方向的潛規則已經土崩瓦解。長期以來認 為新興經濟體的金融市場應該從美，英， 歐，澳這些成熟市場汲取經驗的觀念已然 過時。歸根結底，亞洲的監管和政治精英 們希望在重塑環球金融體系之際提高自己 的話語權。
In future they may detect scope to lead where once they followed. Asian market regulators told the IOSCO conference that, while their markets had suffered real shocks following the collapses of Lehman’s and AIG and subsequent liquidity drought in September 2008, their securities markets had continued to function well and they said they saw little need for the extreme measures introduced elsewhere including short selling bans.
During the last quarter pf 2008, European stocks saw their biggest drop in at least 20 years, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 10000 mark, a stark sign that the crisis may be outpacing policy makers’ ability to contain it.
從今以後，他們將尋求機會由跟隨者 變成領導者。亞洲市場的監管者們告訴 IOSCO大會，雖然2008年9月雷曼兄弟和 AIG的轟然倒塌，以及隨之而來的流動性 枯竭令亞洲市場深受衝擊，但是他們的證
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
28
World News
PHOTOGRAPH © Stéfan
PHOTOGRAPH © Stéfan
all change is not universally shared.
有人說新加坡的監管堪稱典範，不需要 任何改變，但並不是所有人都如此以為。
The Tokyo Stock Market
券市場仍能平穩運行，所以沒必要引入諸 如禁止沽空等極端措施。
Aberdeen Asset Management’s AsiaPacific strategist Peter Elston believes that Asian regulators will be watching developments in the US and Europe closely but said they may not see the need to change many rules because their countries largely avoided the worst of the crisis.
安本資產管理有限公司亞太區策略師 Peter Elston認為，亞洲監管者將會密切注意 美國和歐洲的動向，但他們也許並不覺得 有必要大舉修改規則，因為這些國家基本 上都躲過了危機的最壞時刻。
Rather than throw in their lot with damaged markets and draconian measures in Europe and Asia, Asian nations may be keener to form regional alliances. Taiwan recently said it will accelerate preparatory work and explore the signing of memoranda of understanding on regulatory co-operation with IOSCO members in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Israel, Belgium and the US. 跟歐洲和亞洲大力整頓市場和嚴加管治 不同，亞洲國家似乎更熱衷於組建區域聯 盟。台灣近期表示，將會加緊籌備尋求與 IOSCO成員如新加坡，香港，日本，以色 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
列，比利時和美國簽署監管合作諒解備忘 錄。
Stock exchanges in the Asean bloc are also planning further integration in a move that could provide a counterbalance to the erstwhile dominance of developed nations. The proposed integration, which will fall short of a full merger, will facilitate fund-raising activities across the economic bloc and boost the visibility of Asean capital markets. Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar, chairman of the Malaysian Securities Commission, says the move will include further integration of regional capital markets through a harmonisation of standards and the facilitation of cross-border share offerings. 東盟集團的證券交易所亦打算深入一體 化，藉此抗衡發達國家昔日的主導地位。 一體化方案雖未達到全面合併的程度，但 卻有助促進這個經濟聯盟內的融資活動， 提高東盟資本市場的能見度。馬來西亞證 監會主席丹斯里安瓦爾（Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar）表示，此舉旨在透過協調標準和 促進跨國招股活動，推動區域資本市場一 體化。
However the notion that Singapore is such a paragon of regulation it can resist
Kevin Scully, executive chairman and founder of securities research house NetResearch Asia, believes the microstate must create a regulator with farreaching powers “to help restore investor confidence in the wake of the number of corporate fraud cases and financial product mis-selling.” 證券研究機構NetResearch Asia創始人兼 執行總裁Kevin Scully認為，這個微型國家 一定得有一個強力監管機構，才能「在連 串公司欺詐案和金融產品不當銷售事件過 後重樹投資者信心」。
Scully said rules governing “independent” directors need to be tightened up. Writing in his blog, he said the independent directors at several listed Singaporean companies have recently been able to walk away from corporate “car crashes” with which they were involved. Scully說當局需要收緊「獨立」董事規 則。他在自己的網志中寫道，最近有多家 新加坡上市公司的獨立董事從公司醜聞中 輕鬆脫身，其實他們難逃干係。
Scully said that independent directors should in future only be elected by minority shareholders, not the majority shareholder, and that directors should be allowed to sit on the boards of no more than three listed companies. He added that they must have suitable qualifications and not remain on any board for more than five years. Scully表示，今後獨立董事應該僅由少數 股東而不是大股東推選，其兼任上市公司 的董事會職務不能超過三家。他續指，他 們必須具備適當資格，且任職於任何董事 會都不能超過五年。|AT|
29
Business Analysis
追隨價值投資大師的風範
Emulating the Style of
Fundamental Investor Rock Stars 作者 By Daniel Chow
Financial Ratios are an indispensable analytical tool for investment analysts. Mastery of financial ratios will allow self directed investors to emulate the style of wildly successful fundamental investors such as Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch.
財務比率是投資分析中必不可少的分析工具。掌握財務比率將引導投資者跟隨價值投資大 師巴菲特，林奇的腳步，踏上成功的投資之路。 In finance, a financial ratio
is a ratio of selected values on an enterprise’s financial statements. Financial ratios are tools for interpreting financial statements to provide a basis for valuing securities and appraising financial and management performance. 財務比率是從公司財務報表上選取特定數 值計算而得的比率，可作為解讀財務報表 的工具，據此釐定證券價格，評價財務和 管理表現。
Investment analysts use financial ratios to compare the strengths and weaknesses in various companies. Financial ratios allow an analyst to: 投資分析師運用財務比率比較不同公司 的優勢和弱勢，它能讓分析師：
✔ Standardise information from financial statements across multiple financial years to allow comparison of a firm’s performance over time. 統一比較多個財政年度的財務報 表資料，藉此評價一家公司於特 定時期內的表現
✔ Standardise information from financial statements from different companies in the same
sector to allow an apples to apples comparison. 統一比較同行業的不同公司的財 務報表資料，起到橫向比較之效
✔ M easure key relationships by relating inputs (costs) with outputs (benefits) and facilitates comparison of these relationships over time and across firms. 衡量投入（成本）與產出（收 益）的重要關係，以便在特定時 期內和不同公司間比較這些關係
that a financial analyst will use most frequently are:
評估一家公司或其他組織的整體財政狀 況有許多標準比率可用。一般而言，財務 分析師經常使用四類財務比率：
ó Performance ratios 業績比率
ó Working capital ratios 營運資金比率
ó Liquidity ratios 流動性比率
ó Solvency ratios 償債能力比率
From a management perspective, financial ratios are used by business managers within a firm, by current and potential shareholders (owners) of a firm, and by a firm’s creditors to assess past performance and set milestones or key performance indicators for a forward looking business plan. 從管理角度來看，公司的管理人員，現 有和潛在的股東（所有者）以及債權人， 均可利用財務比率評價公司的過往表現， 並為日後的業務計劃設定里程碑或者是關 鍵業績指標。
There are many standard ratios used to evaluate the overall financial condition of a corporation or other organisation. In general, the 4 categories of financial ratios JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
30
Business Analysis
These 4 financial ratios allow a good financial analyst to quickly and efficiently address the following questions or concerns: 一名優秀的財務分析師可用這四類財務 比率快速而有效地解答以下的問題或關 注點：
Performance ratios 業績比率
ÑW hat return is the company making on its capital investment? 公司的資本投資回報如何？
Ñ What are its profit margins? 利潤率如何？
Working capital ratios
Management Operational Analysis
Owners Profitability
Lenders Liquidity
• Gross Margin • Profit Margin • Operating Expense Analysis • Contribution
• Return on Equity • Earnings Per Share
• Current Ratio • Quick Ratio (Acid Test)
Asset Management
Disposition of Earnings Leverage
• Asset Turnover • Working Capital - Accounts Recievable - Inventory Turnover - Accounts Payable
• Cash Flow Per Share • Dividends Per Share • Dividend Yield • Payout/Retention • Dividend Coverage
• Debt to Assets • Debt to Capitalization • Debt to Equity
Profitability
Market Indicators
Debt Service
• Return on Assets • EBIT ROA
• Stock Price • Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) • Market to Book Value
• Interest Coverage • Interest and Principal Coverage
營運資金比率
Ñ How quickly are debts paid? 能否儘快償還債務？
Ñ How many times is inventory turned? 存貨周轉狀況如何？
Liquidity ratios 流動性比率
Ñ Can the company continue to pay its liabilities and debts? 公司能否持續償還負債？
Solvency ratios (Longer term) 償債能力比率（長期）
ÑW hat is the level of debt in relation to other assets and to equity? 跟資產和權益相比，債務水平如何？
Ñ Is the level of interest payable out of profits? 是否需用利潤支付利息？
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Source 資料來源: Financial ModeLing Guide [www.financialmodelingguide.com]
管理層
所有者
貸款人
營運分析
盈利能力
流動性
• 毛利率 • 利潤率 • 營運開支分析 • 供款
• 股本回報率 • 每股盈利（EPS）
• 流動比率 • 速 動比率（快速流動比率測 試）
資產管理
盈利處置
槓桿
• 資產周轉率 • 營運資金 - 應收賬款 - 存貨周轉 - 應付賬款
• 每股現金流量 • 每股股息 • 派息率 • 分派／保留 • 股息覆蓋率
• 債務比資產 • 債務比市值 • 債務比權益
盈利能力
市場指標
償債能力
• 資產回報率 • EBIT ROA
• 股價 • 市盈率（P/E） • 市賬率
• 利息覆蓋率 • 利息和本金覆蓋率
Business Analysis
Attaining Mastery of Financial Ratios
據。您可下載一些財務比率分析電子模 板，用於計算，分析和比較一整套業務及 財務比率。運用這些電子模板，便能評價 與衡量您所投資的公司／股票的表現
While most investment analyst
reports and financial data services provide information on a company’s or its sector average financial ratios, it is always good practice for self directed investors to not rely on these sources of information as neither their basis nor accuracy can be guaranteed.
掌握財務比率 雖然大多數的投資分析報告和財經數據服 務都會提供公司或其所在行業的平均財務 比率，但因此類資料的基準和準確性沒有 保證，有主見的投資者不應迷信這些資料 來源。
Investors should always learn how to compute their own set of financial ratios for a particular stock or sector, and use these metrics to guide their investment decisions. You can download several financial ratio analysis spreadsheet templates that will allow you to calculate, analyse and compare a set of business & financial ratios. By using these spreadsheet templates, you can assess & measure the operating performance of businesses/stocks that you intend to invest in. 投資者應當學習自行計算個別股票或行 業的財務比率，以此作為投資決策的依
Issues
ROA
However, a word of caution: While financial ratio analysis can provide us with important insight into a company’s performance, a good investment analyst will be aware that there are some important limitations that should be noted when using financial ratios as an analytical tool in investment analysis.
切記：儘管財務比率分析可為我們提供 公司表現的重要資料，但一名優秀的投資 分析師應該知道，財務比率作為投資分析 工具存在幾個值得重視的局限。
Limitations of Financial Ratio Analysis 財務比率分析的局限
ó R atio analysis is a retrospective, not prospective examination. 比率分析是追溯性的檢驗，而不是前瞻 性的檢驗
ó R atio analysis is based on accounting not economic data. 比率分析的依據是會計數據，而不是經 濟數據
ó R atios don’t capture significant offbalance sheet items. 比率不能反映重大表外項目
ó B asic ratios can be manipulated through acceptable alterations of accounting policies (e.g., LIFO/FIFO). ROE
ROI
ROCE
Profit Margin ✔
Do not incorporate opportunity cost or risk
✔
✔
✔
✔
Often mislead managers to slash assets rather than invest
✔
✔
✔
✔
Ignore cost of capital investments required to generate earnings Isolation
✔ ✔
Debt, dividend policy
問題
ROA
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
ROE
ROI
ROCE
利潤率 ✔
未有考慮機會成本或風險
✔
✔
✔
✔
經常誤導管理層盲目削減資產而非開展
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
投資 忽視了產生盈利所需的資本投資的成本 單獨使用時難以比較其他的機遇 可能受財務決策所影響（如：債務利息
✔ ✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
31
在可接受的範圍內更改會計政策（如「 後進先出」／「先進先出」），可以人為 操縱基本比率
ó F inancial statement accounts reflect historical cost not necessarily current economic value. 財務報表賬目反映的是歷史成本，不一 定是當前經濟價值
ó C ash flow measures have been proven to be more closely correlated with stock price movement that income based measures. 跟收入指標相比，現金流量指標與股價 走勢的關係更密切
There are also several programs available that will teach you the fundamentals of financial statements analysis and financial ratios, equipping you with the knowledge and skills to correctly interpret and use financial ratios to make better investment decisions. One such program is the Financial Ratio Analysis Masterclass available online from Finance 3.0 (www.finance30.com), a Business & Finance Professional Education Network. 某些電子程式可教您有關財務報表分析 和財務比率的基礎知識，讓您掌握必備的 知識與技能以正確解讀和運用財務比率， 作出更為妥當的投資決策。譬如商業及財 務專業人員教育網絡Finance 3.0 （www.finance30.com）提供的Financial Ratio Analysis Masterclass，便是這樣的電子程 式。|AT| The writer is the Editor in Chief of Finance 3.0 (www.finance30.com), a Business & Finance Professional Education Network. Thousands of finance professionals from Wall Street, Fortune 500 companies, Big 4 CPA firms and management consulting firms use the Finance 3.0 platform daily to connect and learn about: Financial Markets & Investments, Corporate Finance & Valuation, Financial Modeling, Forecasting & Simulations, Financial Engineering & Mathematics, Financial Risk Management, Strategic Financial Management and Accounting 本文作者為商業及財務專業人員教育網絡 Finance 3.0（www.finance30.com）主編。每天都 有成千上萬來自華爾街，《財富》500強公司，四 大會計師事務所，管理諮詢機構的財務專家藉助 Finance 3.0平台交流和學習：金融市場與投資， 企業財務與估值，財務建模，預測與模擬，金 融工程與數學，財務風險管理，策略性財務管 理與會計
的稅務後果，股息政策）
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
32
World News
The Recession you have
衰退論
When you’re not
having a Recession 作者/by Chris Champion
The rock market, Sydney, Australia
Australian Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd might speak fluent Mandarin but he has not mastered the Chinese art of phlegmatic delivery. In early June, when delivering the news that Australia’s real GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in the March quarter, making Australia the only firstworld economy not in recession, Rudd could not repress a triumphant tone. 澳洲總理陸克文（Kevin Rudd）能說一口流 利的中文，但他並未領悟中國人心平氣和 講話的藝術。就在6月初，當他宣佈澳洲截 至3月止季度實質GDP經季節性調整後增 長0.4%，使得澳洲成為唯一未有陷入衰退 的發達經濟體這一消息時，其興奮之情溢 於言表。
The tone suggested a ringing endorsement of the government’s leadership in troubled times, and was
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
aimed squarely at the 從全球來看，這應該是1929年 parliamentary Opposition, 以來最嚴重的經濟衰退，澳洲有 which had been ringingly 何秘訣獨善其身？答案取決於你 suggesting otherwise. It has 信哪家之言。 been a lively debate, but In one of the more fondly the Opposition’s efforts to remembered examples of discredit the Government’s Australian political dualism, then Australian Prime fiscal management keep Minister, Kevin Rudd Treasurer Paul Keating, battling getting snagged on the the global economic fallout inconvenient fact that Australia has of the 1987 stockmarket crash, finally technically at no point gone into answered his critics with the words, “This recession. is the recession Australia had to have.” 這樣的語氣是對艱困時期政府領導力的 有力肯定，其矛頭直指國會中唱反調的反 對黨。爭論固然激烈，但反對黨對政府管 理財政的指責卻受阻於一個尷尬的事實， 那就是澳洲在技術上並未陷入衰退。
Given that, on global terms, this is the worst downturn since 1929, what is Australia’s secret? The answer depends on who you listen to.
先舉一個令人印象深刻的關於澳洲政治 二元性的例子：曾在1987年股票市場暴跌 時領導澳洲抵禦全球經濟衰退的時任財長 基廷（Paul Keating），後來用這樣的話回 應他的批評者：「這是澳洲不得不經歷的 衰退。」
Politicians do tend to have a different way of interpreting things. 政客論事總愛與眾不同。
World News
it suits them switch to the other argument.
然而不少經濟學家卻認為 以此判斷衰退有失偏頗，不 妨考慮其他更為準確和公允 的指標，比如失業率。澳洲 政府內的政客議員們也是如 此主張，而且會一直堅持下 去，除非他們有了別的值得 爭論的話題。
Financial advisers, experts and academics would agree with me that consumer confidence is a key factor in the business world when it comes to finance and economy
A big part of any discussion about recession must be consumer confidence, but this is another area which economists argue over and politicians promulgate when it suits them. Consumer confidence is a key factor when it comes to finance and economy, says one faction. Garbage, say others. 說到衰退，談論最多的要屬消費者信 心，這也是經濟學家爭論不休和政客們熱 衷的話題。有人覺得消費者信心對金融和 經濟至關重要，有人則不以為然。
Summing up one side is Brookes News e-zine writer Gerard Jackson who says it is a “dangerous fallacy to believe that consumer sentiment is the ... driver that raises spending, forces business to fill their order books, invest in new plant and employ more people”. This, snorts Jackson, is “right back to the mercantilist fallacy that consumption drives the economy”.
What the Australian situation has highlighted is the difficulty of defining a recession. The most common interpretation is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, or, in the words of US economic statistician Julius Shiskin, “two down quarters of GDP”. 澳洲的情況給我們出了一個難題，那就 是如何界定衰退。公認的理解是經濟連續 兩個季度負增長即為衰退，用美國經濟統 計學家希思金（Julius Shiskin）的話來說就 是「GDP連跌兩季」。
There are plenty of economists who have argued that this is in fact a poor way to measure recession, and that unemployment, for example, would be more accurate and fair. The politicians sitting across the chamber from Australian Government members have been pointing out the same thing, and will continue to do so, one presumes, until
33
可本末倒置。
The other side of the argument is summarised by John Whonderr-Arthur, who can wave an MBA and a PhD in business administration while he claims, “Financial advisers, experts and academics would agree with me that consumer confidence is a key factor in the business world when it comes to finance and economy. 身為工商管理碩士和博士的John Whonderr-Arthur總結了另一派的觀點。他 說：「財務顧問，專家和學者應該會認同 我的觀點，那就是在商業世界裏，消費者 信心是金融和經濟的基石。」
“One (should) not forget how the traditional market principle works, all things being equal: demand and supply
Brookes News電子雜誌撰稿人Gerard Jackson歸納了一派的觀點，他說：「那種 認為消費者情緒能夠刺激開支，促使企業 開出訂單，投資新工廠和增聘人手的想法 是危險而荒謬的。」又說：「這是重商主義 者鼓吹消費驅動經濟的謬論死灰複燃。」
For support, Jackson calls on the timehonoured words of Scottish philosopher and historian James Mill, who wrote in 1808, that “consumption is posterior to production, and it is impossible to consume what is not produced”. Jackson從蘇格蘭哲學家和史學家James Mill的學說中引經據典，後者於1808年寫 道：「消費是生產之後的事，還沒生產出 來的東西是不可能消費的。」
A third proponent of the principle was W.H. Hutt, who wrote in 1974, “Consumption is the extermination of power to demand”, meaning consumption grows out of production and not the reverse. 這個理論的第三位擁護者是W.H. Hutt， 他於1974年寫道：「消費意味著需求力的 消滅」。換言之，先有生產，後有消費，不
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
34
World News
determine price; markets respond positively to favourable reports, news or predictions; (the opposite is also true for negative reports most of the time, if not all the time); consumer confidence triggers demand which in turn triggers supply; supply encourages production which will provide jobs with money in our pockets and food on our tables; the cycle repeats itself.”
「人們不該忘記傳統市場法則如何發揮 作用，正所謂萬物平等：消費和需求決定 價格；市場對利好報告，消息或預測作出 正面回應（遇到利空報告則剛好相反，至 少大多數時候如此）；消費者信心激發需
求，進而刺激供給；供給促進生產，生產 提供就業，換來我們荷包裏的金錢和餐桌 上的食物；如此循環往複。」
In his corner is Orato e-zine correspondent Joel Hirschhorn, who writes, “Consumers control over twothirds of the economic activity (of the United States). Millions of consumers could threaten to cut their spending in order to get action. American consumers must understand that literally within days and weeks they themselves could turn around the economy.” 跟他同一陣營的是Orato電子雜誌撰稿人 Joel Hirschhorn，此君寫道：「消費者主宰
著（美國）超過三份之二的經濟活動。千 百萬消費者可藉削減開支來逼你就範。美 國消費者應該明白，毫不誇張的說，他們 不用多長時間就能改變整個經濟。」
Hirschhorn cites US Federal Reserve estimates that American consumers have about US$8.85 trillion stashed in savings and money market accounts. That’s a big weapon.
Hirschhorn援引美國聯儲局的估計，指美 國消費者大約有8.85萬億美元存在儲蓄和貨 幣市場賬戶上。這是一個強大的武器。
All this was brought to mind when the positive Australian GDP figure was announced in early June. Joel Hirschhorn’s estimation that consumers control two-thirds of the US economy applies to Australia too given that household spending accounts for more than 60 percent of GDP. As household spending rose 0.6 percent in the March quarter, and as business investment fell 6.1 percent and housing construction fell 5.6 percent in the same period, it is clearly the consumer which has held the Australian economy above the recession line.
回頭再看6月初澳洲公佈的GDP增長數 據。Joel Hirschhorn說消費者主宰美國經濟 的三份之二，這個估計同樣適用於澳洲， 因為家庭開支佔到澳洲GDP的六成以上。 截至3月止季度家庭開支上升0.6%，同期企 業投資下降6.1%，房屋建設萎縮5.6%。顯 而易見，正是主宰澳洲經濟的消費者力挽 狂瀾，才讓澳洲止步於衰退的邊緣。
The politicians may crow that public confidence was driven by responsible fiscal management, including massive stimulus packages, but it’s Joe and Josephine Consumer who seem to know the real secret to keeping Australia out of recession. “Consumption may be posterior to production,” they can be heard telling their mates, “but who has time to worry about that when there’s a barbecue to organise? Let’s worry about the important things. Who’s buying the sausages? Who’s buying the beer?”
政客們也許會誇耀公眾信心是源自負責 任的財政管理，譬如大規模經濟刺激計 劃。但是真正阻止澳洲陷入衰退的卻是普 羅大眾消費者。聽聽他們的家常話：「也 許消費是生產之後的事，可誰有時間理會 這些。現在要辦燒烤宴，還是想想正經事 吧：誰去買香腸？誰去買啤酒？」|AT|
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
World News
OBAMA: The Interventionist
In some ways it’s rather a pity
that Barack Obama has had to backtrack on his commitment to keep America’s government small. The developing world would have been more than happy to welcome an American president who didn’t constantly intervene in foreign policy issues in the way that his clumsy predecessor George W Bush had done. And Americans, for their part, would also have been glad to see their government spending less of their cash, after the budgetary excesses of the Bush Administration which finally left office at the start of this year. With a global recession biting hard, and with unemployment rising fast, it seems like the worst possible time to be hitting them with new taxes. 巴拉克·奧巴馬曾信誓旦旦說要使美國政 府成為一個小政府，可惜他食言了。對 第三世界來說，他們更歡迎一位不總對別 國事務橫加干涉的美國總統，千萬別像他 的前任——笨手笨腳的喬治·W·布什。 而對美國民眾來說，他們則盼政府精打細 算省些花銷，別再像年初下台的布什政府 那樣大手大腳。飽受全球衰退的折磨，加 上失業率飆升，百姓再也承受不起加稅 的打擊。
35 作者/by Michael Wilson
奧巴馬的干涉主義 But these are extraordinary times, whether we like it or not, and they call for extraordinary measures. If President Obama had been as respectful and as reserved as he originally promised to be, we would all have been disappointed in him by now. In his first six months of office, the new president has had to deal with demands which have literally forced him into the limelight. But have his actions been excessive? 可是，置身於非常時期，不論我們願意 與否，都需要非常手段。假若奧巴馬先生 真像當初他承諾的那樣謙恭和克制，也許 現在我們都要對他失望不已。在他履新的 六個月裏，新總統不得不照應四面八方的 需求，可謂出盡風頭。只是，他的舉動會 不會有些過火了呢？
Well, let’s look at the challenges he’s had to deal with. First, there’s been a North Korea that seems intent on a nuclear confrontation, and which has tried to test the new president by firing rockets and exploding a nuclear device. There’s been an Iran that much of the West has accused of rigging
an election in favour of a hard-liner president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. (And which has lost no time in announcing, threateningly, that it will ‘weaponise’ its domestic nuclear stockpile.) In Pakistan, there’s been an extremist insurgency which has often threatened to hand control of significant areas to Al-Qaeda sympathisers - thus forcing the Pakistan government to appeal for international help in crushing the uprising. It would have been reckless of any American president to remain aloof. JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
36
World News
讓我們看看他究竟有哪些挑戰。首先是 朝鮮蠢蠢欲動打算核對抗，通過發射火 箭和核試爆來考驗我們的新總統。接下 來是伊朗，西方世界指責當局操縱選舉暗 助強硬派總統內賈德（內賈德旋即威脅 說要把本國的核子儲備「武器化」） 。在巴 基斯坦，極端主義分子興風作浪，大片 國土有失陷於基地組織同情者的危險， 迫使巴政府不得不求助國際社會來鎮壓叛 亂。種種問題對任何美國總統來說都不能 坐視不理。
There’s been a sharp rise in the oil price, and a deterioration in the economic standing of nearly every Western country, threatening further pressures on the pattern of free-market global trade. More promisingly, for the president, there’s been movement from the Israeli government with regard to the possibility of statehood for the Palestinians in the Middle East. (An opportunity for intervention which Obama would surely be foolish to ignore?)
油價在飆升，幾乎所有西方國家的經濟 都在惡化，自由市場下的全球貿易模式遭 遇空前壓力。更讓總統大有可為的是，以 色列政府已有考慮讓巴勒斯坦在中東建 國的動作（此時還不出手，那奧巴馬才 是傻瓜）。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Domestic Pressures
At home, meanwhile, there’s also been a crashing need for government support among America’s largest banks, insurance companies and car manufacturers - all of them pillars of the U.S. economy, and all
of them deemed “too big to be allowed to fail”. Either President Obama backed the decision of his predecessor to pump half a trillion dollars into the likes of Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan, AIG insurers, General Motors and Chrysler - or else they went to the wall and took millions of people’s jobs and lifestyles with them. Now that the banks are starting to repay the support funds they received under the Trouble Asset Relief Programme (TARP), the decision to splash the cash seems retrospectively sound. (The $4 billion relief for the nowbankrupt Chrysler and the crashed-out GM are less obviously sound - but, in fairness, no-one was to know that at the time.)
國內壓力 在國內，大銀行，大車廠，大保險公司 都在伸手向政府求助，它們皆是美國經濟 的頂樑柱，「大到不容倒閉」。迫於形勢， 奧巴馬先生必須支持前任政府的決定，把 五千億美元注入花旗集團，美國銀行，摩 根大通，AIG保險，通用汽車，克萊斯勒 等企業，總好過放任它們走上絕路，讓數 百萬人丟掉飯碗，衣食無著。如今銀行已 開始償還「問題資產救助計劃」（TARP）
World News
的救助金，事後看來這個燒錢的決定也 算明智。 （花在已經破產的克萊斯勒和元 氣大傷的通用身上的40億美元算是打了 水漂。不過憑心而論，當時誰又知道如 此結局？）
Those, you could say, were unavoidable domestic policy exercises which have been met responsibly and capably. But the word “unavoidable” does not necessarily spring to mind for some of President Obama’s other measures. He has nominated a Supreme Court judge, Mrs Sonia Sotomayor, who has ‘interpreted’ America’s race laws in ways which her critics say conflicts with the 1964 Civil Rights Act by giving preference to nonwhite job applicants. He has launched a healthcare reform programme which promises welfare entitlements to all US residents but which will hit both wealthy consumers and hard-pressed companies with hefty new taxes. He has proposed $634 billion of tax savings over ten years to help fund the programme, but everyone knows it will not be nearly enough money, and that there is more fiscal pain to come. The odd thing is that nobody has been forcing him to do these controversial things right now. He’s simply keen to make his mark.
也許你會說這些國內政策都是不得以而 為之，是義不容辭的份內事。然而，奧巴 馬總統的其他一些做法卻不見得都是「不 得以而為」，譬如他提名索尼亞·索托馬 約爾（Sonia Sotomayor）女士出任最高法 院大法官。索氏對美國種族法的「解釋」 招致非議，批評者認為她偏袒非白人求職 者，有違《1964年民權法案》。奧巴馬還 推出醫療改革計劃，承諾讓全體國民享受 到福利，但卻向富人和手頭本不寬裕的企 業開徵重稅。為了給這項計劃籌集資金， 他提出未來十年要減稅6,340億美元，然而 大家都知道這不過是杯水車薪，今後還有 更多緊日子要過。奇怪的是，根本沒人逼 他現在就作這些吃力不討好的事，其實他 的目的很簡單，就是想作出一番成績。
Above all, President Obama does not yet seem to have flinched at the prospect of a US budget deficit which is heading for a scary $2 trillion deficit - and that’s 12% of gross domestic product, by the way. Ten years ago, any emerging-market country that exceeded the 7% deficit line would have had its emergency lifelines cut off by the International Monetary Fund, amid accusations of gross irresponsibility. But America has not been slow to claim exemption from the usual rules. 更重要的是，面對美國直逼兩萬億美元 相當於國內生產總值12%的預算赤字，奧
37
巴馬先生似乎未露懼色。回想十年前，任 何新興市場國家只要越過7%的赤字線，便 會惹來罔顧責任的指責，其緊急貸款額度 也會被國際貨幣基金組織下調。而美國從 來不會落於人後申請豁免遵守這條常規。
As non-American observers, what ought to concern us now is the fairly strong likelihood that President Obama will soon turn to protectionist measures in his efforts to balance the budget. Faced with job losses at home, and with a dollar that is bound to suffer under the colossal weight of government debt, the president will be sorely tempted to impose import restrictions and penalties, add export subsidies, and perhaps even resort to political favouritism among his foreign trade partners, to keep the wheels turning. Free global trade, he will probably say, is an expensive luxury that can wait its turn in the queue. 作為外國觀察家，現在我們最擔心的是 奧巴馬極有可能採取貿易保護主義措施來 平衡預算。由於國內失業率高企，以及美 元匯率勢必受到沉重的政府債務拖累，奧 巴馬總統肯定會順理成章地施加進口限制 和懲罰，提高出口補貼，甚或以政治上的 親疏遠近對待美國的貿易夥伴，從而維持 經濟車輪的運轉。或許他會說，自由的全 球貿易太奢侈，且待從長計議。|AT|
President Barack Obama meets with Judge Sonia Sotomayor in the Oval Office on May 21, 2009. The President nominated Judge Sotomayer to the U.S. Supreme Court on May 26, 2009. photograph © Pete Souza / The Official White House Photo Stream
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
38
Technical Overview of Markets
with price premiums to short term moving averages (65-day or 13-wk) of around 7% to 13%. These spreads are what present reactions may try to cover. ç Upward momentum has faltered. There is evidence of some slowdown in MACD and RSI strength – this may warrant some defensive action as it offers a window for corrective retracements. Some short term divergences have materialised and these are telltale signs of markets on a fringe of a wider corrective shift or pattern. Markets will now only support advances that are slower or with less steep angles and even show horizontal consolidations after its initial reaction to more supportive zones.
We are again into a crossroad of
action. It has been about 14 weeks of a general advance into the global recovery in stocks without so much of a hiccup of a correction and this extendedness may prompt the need to reassess downside risks. High liquidity levels have so far extended the market’s ability to rebound and have done quite well in presenting rotational action in market swings; this keeps money in and at the same time provides for some reconsolidation time to try to fix overbought conditions. But looking once again at the extendedness in markets, the diminutive size of reactions Country
Current Price (6/18/’09)
and the faltering momentum indications are showing signs of wear that may ask prices to show wider corrective swings.
Weakness brewing
I have noticed a few technical facts surface that may induce another major reaction that could find prices subsiding to medium term averages. å Many indices have had extended runs without too much correction time. So much so that prices have earlier showed overbought RSI reads of 70% to 80%. Moreover a number of indices still stand
1/4-Yr MA
1-Yr MA
Rally from ‘09 low
Indonesia
1,950
1,725
1,722
70%
Hong Kong
17,776
16,084
16,943
69%
Singapore
2,237
2,037
2,153
67%
Thailand
570
505
546
56%
China
2,853
2,542
2,355
55%
Philippines
2,434
2,183
2,222
50%
South Korea
1,375
1,343
1,320
45%
Japan
9,703
9,033
10,121
45%
910
874
993
44%
Australia
3,887
3,743
4,111
32%
Malaysia
1,054
989
992
31%
USA (Sp500)
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
é A number of indices have been climbing with less volume power. This is very representative of a mania in buying interest that may need grounding. This shrinkage in volume is caused by sellers retreating in the advent of the power rush; once they notice weakness develop, supply will likely resurface and will do so quickly.
A number of indices may need to bow down along with the SP500 and breathe in
Looking at the SP500 as an example (figure left), we can clearly see that at its recent highs of 956 as compared with earlier highs of 930 – it was accompanied by a divergence in its RSI and MACD. This suggests weakness in buying power, although prices push higher the force required to do was smaller and this presages some vulnerability to profit taking pressure. Moreover it also showed a down slant in volume into this advance highlighting the fact the there was less fuel firing up this recovery near its recent highs. Again this should be enough warning to lighten into positions and wait for stronger support prices to argue our risks versus our rewards, because it does not glimmer too brightly as of the moment. Markets such as the SP500 would attempt to try to narrow their spreads to
Techinical Overview of Markets
their short to medium term averages in an effort to fix its over-bloatedness. Such divergences and volume drops could posit a reaction to 65-day (quarterly) or even 130-day (semi-annual) moving averages. This may coincide with a Fibonacci pullback of about 38% of the entire recovery to fulfill the need of extricating supply overhang. Although these weak conditions may foster corrective threats into the short term it does not yet carry the stronger threat of a trend reversal. Major support structures (65-130-260-day Moving Averages) are still intact and holding well below prices and as long as these are not violated the recovery action could yet be pressed into a consolidation range before resuming.
What happens next?
The aftermath of this rally wave may leave many to speculate on – will we see prices fall back to previous lows? Or will the corrective pullback be contained and eventually produce a higher low fostering a more solid base? Although prices do have a chance to test previous lows, I feel the chance for this happening is an extremely small one as I shall describe below. However lets us review a typical bearish template to recognise what may lie ahead. å First of all I think we have gone through the worst in terms of share price collapses as that period of utmost desperation took place last year and when shareholders almost threw everything out the window. Such a selling climax like
39
the Oct and Nov 08 splashdowns and followed by March 09’s plummet usually produces major market lows and often enough depicts major bear market lows despite perhaps some isolated cases. How much more sense of fear and dread could there have been?
could produce downward channels that simmer down using Fibonacci’s expected retracement window of around 38% to 62% of the rally size. I would expect this scenario to be the highest chance of forming into the US set of indices.
ç A major recovery followed this desperate period of over pessimism often outperforming common analyst’s expectations. The rally will likely hit and perhaps even pass fair valuations given sudden flood of liquidity caused by a prevailing crisis fears - many times asserting recoveries lasting a 3-10 months and showing index gains of over 30% or even greater than 50%. This period of short lived confidence will force many bearish analysts to change their mindset and compel them calling up more bullish predictions. This has happened.
lows I not lower – I think this last option may have the smallest chance of taking form. Liquidity levels may be too high, interest rates may be too low, and the crisis pushing all into a panic in 08 may have squeezed almost all it could squeeze. Now that anecdotal evidences of slower degeneration in economies has been shown, the heralding of an eventual mending is clearly what we wait for… prodding more sense of hope rather than fear and despair. Thus the push back to panic stricken price levels seem improbable.
é After the frenzied recovery will come a period of reaction and reconsolidation which will attempt to drag prices to more attractive levels. This is where we likely stand today. Such corrective reconsolidations may however compose three varieties in form.
a. A sidewards consolidation – where
there is a small chance that this type would be orchestrated as of this point but only due to the fact that liquidity levels remain relatively high and could cause bargain hunting to be rather forceful and persistent. However it does not seem likely that fundamentals may be able to turn fast enough to justify present price levels. In contrast prices may have to be the one to catch up to fundamentals and this would be an argument against this less forceful type of correction.
b. A first sudden then slower orderly
corrective retracement – there is a high chance of this type of correction already taking place given that fair valuations have already been hit. Moreover a long overdue reactive drive may likely douse bullish sentiments and adversely inhibit liquidity flows after seeing prices start to drawback. A shift down to medium term averages may be displayed and
c. The last type is the retest of previous
After the frenzied recovery will come a period of reaction and reconsolidation which will attempt to drag prices to more attractive levels. This is where we likely stand today.
TACTIC: Prepare for price contractions
and ranged swings by lightening down. These extended periods may demonstrate controlled boundaries whose upsides are tight but whose downsides may yet offer some room. Keep in mind however that the initial drive into a corrective swing may be quite serrated as concerns suddenly grow when prices begin to break channel lows, support stops and major consolidation bases if any. We have to wait to see if reactions take one of the three types and if the first or second show, we slowly accumulate into support thrusts. If it is the less chancy and dreaded third, we severely cut down position size and prepare for a longer period of hibernation. |AT| JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
40
ATIR Market Report
Nikkei 225 (Japan) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
9,466
8,957
10,200
11,500 16000
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
9689.77 14469.99 9871.66 6994.90 9033.6201 9535.1484 10121.5234
15000 14000 13000
Nikkei wedged in a channel
12000 11000 10121.52
10000 9689.77 9033.62 9033.62 9000 8000 7000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close RSI on Close(14)
193.2287
193.2284 225.5440 -32.3153
-32.3153
-500
53.12
80 60 53.12 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
2008
The Nikkei, after showing a double bottom, finds itself within the bounds of an upward price channel. It has recently reached the higher end of its range and may be subject to a wave of profit taking. In fact prices have already hit its 1-yr Moving Average (at 10,152) and this may be expected to show selling pressure. It is expected that a reactive drive may look to find support closer to its trendline or its short term Moving Averages at 9,466 then 8,957 respectively.
Strategy: Recent overbought readings and the drift off in momentum highly suggest some lightening in preparation for a corrective swing. Look to take some profits into its range highs or resistance and attempt to buy back after a reactive drive that can swerve prices back between the support ranges of 9,466 then 8,957.
Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,665
2,521
2,910-3,000
3,500
Last High on 07/10/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
4500
2810.123 2952.039 2301.060 1664.925 2531.3420 2675.7009 2357.8110
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
100
61.1393 62.8337 -1.6945
0 -100
64.90
80 60 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 25
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
2008
Jan 23
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 27
Shanghai Index proceeds with up range This Chinese index has also draw out an advancing price channel and continues to flow through it. As the distance to support is not too distant, it seems that the advance has been properly managed through as it corrects on time whenever daily RSIs tag 70+. The only worry is that a weekly version of this graph shows an RSI close to 70 and this may soon trigger a wider corrective swing. Nevertheless its trendline is intact as is its short term support point at 2,665 keeping downside risks at bay for the meantime.
Strategy: As the channel offers a range of security, a Hold is still recommended with a careful eye peeled over support. Only a brake below 2,665 can prompt a wider reactive swing that can induce a profit take recommendation. Given the current advancing angle, a short term resistance target is placed closer 2,910-3,000. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
ATIR Market Report
41
Set Index (Thailand) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
590-561
500
640
715
Last High on 06/26/08 Average Low on 10/26/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
586.14 787.43 530.45 630.05 503.3623 565.1340 547.5504
800
700
The Set shows too much stretch and strain
600
The Thai Set index has worked on an impressive recovery (56% from March lows) but may have left it too strung out. Although above its 1-yr (260-day) Moving Average, it does show a Diverging notion into its RSI. This forewarns susceptibility to a corrective maneuver which may look soon prod prices to foster a pullback to support (561-500) or limit itself into reactive consolidation or pattern for the time being. A break of its short term up trendline 590 would trigger a wider corrective tug.
500
400
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
Jun 30
23.5011 26.6533 -3.1522
20 0 -20 -40
55.65
Jul 31
Aug 29
80 60 40 20 Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
2008
Strategy: Given that the Set is displaying a reactive drive after a divergence was noted, a watchful eye on support is necessary. Look to profit take into rebounds from this point while keeping trading options to buy open closer to 561 to 500. Be prepared for a small range to likely form.
Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,920
1,726
2,200
2,500
Last High on 07/02/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
2024.865 2394.171 1670.852 1089.340 1715.9467 1928.5107 1724.9120
2400 2200 2000
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
Jun 30
Jul 31
100 0 -100
77.1064 87.9405 -10.8321
61.39
Aug 29
80 60 40 20 Sep 39
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
The JCI also housed by a controlled range Jakarta’s Composite is also proceeding along its advance guarded by a price channel. Its present range shows a high at 2,200 and its low sides foster support at 1,919. Several overbought readings (RSIs of 80) have appeared in the last 3-months but all have worked into a reaction to fix this overextendedness. As its swing seems to be slightly elevated with a slight divergence noted, more pullbacks to its range lows are to be expected into the short term. It may also craft a consolidation zone to allow for more profit taking.
Strategy: The JCI’s channel proceeds to offer a range trade proposition… looking for some profit taking near 2,150 to 2,200 and a buy back into a reaction towards 1,920. Place a protective stop at this support low as a breach of this may condition a downside closer to 1,726.
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
42
ATIR Market Report
KLSE Composite (Malaysia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,048
1,000
1,100
1,160
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
1070.90 1226.75 978.87 801.27 986.4443 1048.1434 993.0648
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
19.3406 21.5324 -2.1918
20 0 -20 -40
60.72
80 60 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
2008
Malaysia also showing some strain The KLSE index advance seems so to be losing some steam as prices come to test range lows. With market momentum dropping after an extended swing, it is quite likely to expect prices to dip towards stronger support zones closer to 1,048 if not 1,000. MACD readings as well as RSI indications do show that this corrective possibility should occur into the short term and may foster a corrective range after the initial drawback.
Strategy: A profit take read is issued for the KLSE as prices are expected to find greater areas of support in order to offset the recent extendedness of this index. Perhaps a move to buy back would commence if prices can react to more supportive areas closer to its 1-yr Moving Average closer of 1,000.T
PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,370
2,224
2,200
2,500 3400
Last High on 08/11/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
2441.75 2778.13 2194.30 1684.75 2174.5596 2370.7234 2224.4043
3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
100 0
81.6949 89.3006 -7.6057
-100
53.88
80 60 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 24
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
The PSEi also showing too much to soon The Philippine Composite made its way promptly lower after its recent tag of its channel highs. This may suggest that overbought levels may need to weigh down and offer a reactive drive that may threaten its trendline. In fact a break of its trendline would cast a reaction closer to 2,370 or even 2,224. Although no divergences show, overbought conditions are its immediate problem after a very vertical ascent into the last two and half weeks. This is why prices made their way down briskly.
Strategy: Look to take some profits into rebounds from this point on as its first support may soon be tagged. Be prepared for small ranges to form after a bounce which may try to keep prices hosted over 2,224. A range trading option will stand thereafter as long as prices do not break its 1-yr MA support.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
ATIR Market Report
43
Straits Times Index (Singapore) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
565-550
500
640
715
Last High on 06/26/08 Average Low on 10/26/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
586.14 787.48 530.45 380.05 503.3623 565.1340 547.5504
800
700
600
500
400
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
20 0 -20 -40
23.5011 26.6533 -3.1522
55.65
80 60 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
2008
The STI is now showing corrective pressure Singapore was one the markets that fell quite susceptible to profit taking in recent times, breaking its short term trendline’s support below 600. It seems quite likely that prices may correct towards 565-550 as an initial drive to its reaction. A rebound thereafter would also push for an area pattern or consolidation in an effort to work off any overhang in supply. Momentum indicators also attest to this corrective drive which could foster a consolidation through a reactive channel.
Strategy: Allow a bounce to offer an area to lighten down as an expected area pattern my soon brew after the initial drawdown. Prices are coming close to its short term support (550) and this may try to work off a recovery to provide for better prices into your lightening intent.
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
17,685 /16,968
16,968 / 16,000
19,170
20,300 28000
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
9689.77 14469.99 9871.66 6994.90 1344.0229 1401.2332 1320.7726
24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
Jun 30
Jul 31
6.7042 11.0010 -4.2967
0 -1000
47.39
Aug 29
80 60 40 20 Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Hang Seng now ranging from its updrive The HSI is now testing the lower end of its channel range and must be carefully watched. Prices may need to consolidate if not correct a little more to handle it’s overstretch as it has recorded a gain of 68% from its March lows. This must be tempered through some reaction time. Support is seen at 17,685 followed by 16,968 – these levels should try to hold for the meantime to try to support a recovery into a congestion pattern. Resistance is expected at its recent highs of 19,170.
Strategy: As long as its consolidation pattern holds and price are close to its lows, a Hold is issued. Only a break below 17,685 can instigate a wider corrective event that would reinforce more profit taking. Downside risk into a support break would offer 16,968 then 16,000 as its next target spots.
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
44
ATIR Market Report
Kospi (South Korea) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,350-1,322
1,238
1,437
1,600
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
1381.49 1775.11 1306.37 892.16 1344.0229 1401.2332 1320.7726
1800
1600
1401.23 1381.49 1344.02 1320.77
1200
1000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
50 6.7042 -4.2967
6.7042 11.0010 -4.2967
-50 -100
47.39
80 60 47.39 40 20
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
2008
The Kospi is all boxed up The Kospi has slanted sideways and has created a horizontal trading range. This range may be working in the need to show some profit taking after its rush since March lows. Range trading and rotational swinging is expected within its lineup of issues. Support is carried at 1,350 to 1,322 – a break of these would adversely affect its recovery action and recast a wider corrective trend. The box resistance is clearly pegged at 1,437.
Strategy: A range trading condition is currently upheld for the Kospi and will remain in effect until its range is violated. A breakout above 1,437 would resume a trading buy signal in expectation for a prospective recovery to 1,600. However corrective powers are still lingering and have a decent chance of breaking support at 1,350-1,322 which would sign on a Sell.
All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
3,872 / 3,743
3,583
4,080
4,290 /4,400
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
3885.80 5550.90 4084.40 3090.80 3743. 2017 3874.1907 4111.5298
6000 5500
5000 4500 4111.53
4000 3885.80 3743.20 3500
3000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
RSI on Close(14)
Jun 30
Jul 31
50.9364 -9.8908 -100 -200
50.9364 60.8273 -9.8908
49.85
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
80 60 49.85 40 20 20
Australia also to test channel lows The All Ordinaries have come down to test its channel lows and will be making a declaration towards its short term bias soon. A support watch is geared towards 3,872 then 3,743 to try to hold prices within a consolidation frame. Again a Divergence was noted in its RSI which depicts some threat that a heavier reaction may yet unfold. As is, a significant chance for a horizontal range may appear at this junction to fix its overhang.
Strategy: A sell into strength is issued as prices are testing range lows. A bounce from here should deliver a better stand to lighten down positions given the technical weakness. Look then to reposition when prices can show better stability closer to the support points of 3,743 if not 3,583.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009