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Asian Tigers

From the Editor’s Desk

Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Chinese Editor Welcome to this month’s issue of Asian Tigers Investor Report, Asia’s widest circulating bilingual business magazine. A lot has been happening since the Philippine elections last May 10. Noynoy Aquino, who we featured on the covers of both the February and April issues of Asian Tigers, will be the country’s new President (to be sworn in on June 30, 2010) and we will be following up on his election promises and progress in the near future. Moving on, Bert Olbes’ column this month, Know Your Stock Exchanges, is the third part of the series and tells us everything we need to know about the mighty Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva still aims to peacefully resolve the conflict with the red shirts -- the anti-government demonstrators -- who mainly support fugitive ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Can he do it? Read Steve Lunt’s informative report and find out the impact the conflict is having on the Thai economy. As always, the following pages are full of other interesting and up-to-date information on what’s going on around Asia. Also, don’t forget to check out our website asiantir.com for the latest financial news and forecasts.

Cindy Ng 吴雪玲

Managing Editor Stephen Jeffery

Contributors Carl Nicholas Ng Mike Wilson Bert Olbes Kelvin Ng Bruce Curran Steve Lunt Pawel Suwinski / Nurul Fatiha Sheila Senathirajah Suchitra Sriram Jack Dixon

Circulation Manager Bonnie Tsang

Production Manager

Happy reading, browsing and investing!

Ferdinand Ng

Charlie Greene

Rommel Domondon

Design & Layout

Design Assistants Chris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas

Marketing

Janina Garcia garcia@asiantir.com

編輯寄語

Advertising

歡迎閱讀本期《亞洲虎投資者報告》——亞洲發行量最大的雙語商業雜誌。

Victor Jeffery Teresa Ngai 魏雅云 ads@globalintmedia.com

五月四日,菲律賓大選拉開帷幕,經過一番較量,內內•阿基諾(本刊二月和四月的封面人物)問鼎總 統寶座,將於六月三十日宣誓就職。他將如何實踐參選承諾,又會把菲律賓帶向何方,讓我們拭目以 待。

Editorial & Comments

Bert Olbes的專欄「證券交易所博覽(三)」,帶你認識香港證券交易所。

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

泰國前總理他信的支持者「紅衫軍」發動反政府示威,嚴峻局勢考驗現任總理阿披實的智慧,他能否 化干戈為玉帛?這場衝突對泰國經濟影響幾何?且看Steve Lunt分解。 更多亞洲精彩時訊,盡在亞洲虎。 別忘了瀏覽我們的網站asiantir.com,了解最新財經消息和經濟預測。 祝您閱讀愉快,投資順利! Charlie Greene

Eric Wong editorial@asiantir.com

No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only. All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Asian Tigers magazine is published monthly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

The Asian Tiger Investor Report Website (www.asiantir.com), provides a wealth of services to both the Asian investor as well as investors globally who are interested in the Asian market. In addition to the latest financial news, stock quotes, financial calendars and forex rates, you can also find these additional features: Featured Company News - The place to look for news on companies that are making news. Expert Columns - Asian Tiger Investor Report features exclusive commentary from globally recognized columnists who are experts in their fields. Ask The Legal Experts - The complexities surrounding financial transactions can present a daunting minefield for investors. Gain expert help for your queries on securities and other transactions here. Broker/Dealer Search - Check the status of a broker, dealer or investment house or adviser to determine if they are registered in the jurisdiction they offer their services in. Detective Stock - Determine the worthiness of an equity and/or answer important questions about any specific stock.

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT


Contents Red Shirt Blues for Thai Economy

22

8

49

Toyota Proves Its Resilience

Your Stock 26 Know Exchanges

The Poverty of Wealth

Features 4

On the Cover:

Red Shirt Blues for Thai Economy

紅衫軍—泰國經濟之痛 作者/by Steve Lunt

8 12

The Poverty of Wealth 財富的貧缺

作者/by Bruce Curran

The Philippines – a Home to Excellence in unexpected places 菲律賓:誰說不可能 作者/by Bruce Curran

16

Opportunity and money lies in Malaysia’s hospital waste management market

馬來西亞醫療垃圾管理市場:淘 金之地,財富之門 作者/by Pawel Suwinski / Nurul Fatiha

22

Toyota Proves Its Resilience 豐田力證復甦 作者/by Mike Wilson

26

China’s Auto Industry In the Fast Lane

Know Your Stock Exchanges, Part III The Hong Kong Stock Exchange 證券交易所博覽 第三部 香港交易所 作者/by Bert Olbes

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

31 Robust Economic Growth and an Under Penetrated Market Keeps Demand Strong in the Indonesian Paint & Coatings Market

經濟高速發展及市場滲透率低 推動印尼油氣塗料市場需求保 持強勁 作者/by Sheila Senathirajah

34 Asia’s Gaming Renaissance 亞洲博彩業復興

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

41 Asia-Pacific’s Competitive Edge 亞太的競爭力 作者/by Jack Dixon

46 ‘Staying Connected’: Increasing Role of Solar Power in Telecom Applications in Southeast Asia 「保持通話」:太陽能在東南亞 電訊應用上的擴展 作者/by Suchitra Sriram

49 China’s Auto Industry In the Fast Lane 中國汽車業高歌猛進 作者/by Kelvin Ng


創意投資辦公室 我們有個好辦法,可以讓客 戶選到最好的「bond」。

比方說,肖恩•康納利是 最棒的,然後是提摩西• 道爾頓扮演的「Bond」。 你看怎樣?

不需要ABC之類的分級, 以扮演「James Bond」的 演員就能分出先後。

這個主意可真是「中看不 中用」。


4

Current Economy Affairs

Red Shirt Blues for Thai Economy 紅衫軍—泰國經濟之痛 作者/by Steve Lunt

事到如今,現任總理阿披實 • 威差奇瓦 仍寄望於和平解決爭端,正如政府發言人 潘尼譚 • 瓦達納耶功所說 : 「動用武力驅趕 他們並非民意,大多數的泰國老百姓都不 會答應。」

There were some recent glimmers of hope in this economic gloom, as business leaders and investors shared some optimism over Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's proposals to end the eight weeks of lethal protests in Bangkok -- where 29 people have died during the troubles. But talks over a possible reconciliation plan have floundered, with the red shirt protesters refusing to leave their encampment in the city until the government clarifies its proposals -- in particular, over the proposed date for dissolving parliament ahead of early elections.

Thaksin Shinawatra – have blocked off a large area in Bangkok that is roughly the size of New York’s Central Park. Pro-Thaksin parties have won the past four elections on platforms of improved health care and cheap loans.

反政府示威者們身穿紅衣,高舉擁護流 亡在外的前總理他信 • 西那瓦的大旗,把 曼谷中心區(跟紐約的中心公園差不多大 小)圍得水泄不通。憑藉改善醫療服務, 及為民眾提供低息貸款,他信一派政黨贏 得了過去四屆大選。

激烈的政治衝突煎熬泰國兩個月之久,重 創這個東南亞第二大經濟體。曼谷局勢動 盪不安,旅遊 , 投資和營商信心全線受挫, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva still aims 依靠出口驅動 , 總規模達 2,640 億美元的 to resolve the conflict peacefully, according 泰國經濟損失慘重。 to government spokesman Panitan Wat-

Clad in red shirts, the antigovernment demonstrators – who mainly support fugitive ex-leader

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

tanayagorn: “There is no majority call to use force to clear them out. The majority of Thai people won’t accept that.”

Thaksin Shinawatra

Photo from www.kremlin.ru.

Southeast Asia's second-largest

economy has been hurt by deadly political protests, which have continued to plague Thailand for two months. Volatility caused by the unrest in Bangkok is unsettling the country’s $264 billion export-driven economy -- as tourism, investment and business confidence are all suffering.

這場經濟災難最近終於有了轉機,因為 阿披實總理提出化解危機的方案,多少能 讓商界領袖和投資者們松一口氣。曼谷的 衝突已持續八週之久,已有 29 人死於非命。


EconomyAffairs Current

5

然而和解進程突生變數,紅衫軍抗議者拒 絕撤離他們在市區的集會場地,堅持要求 政府對方案加以澄清,尤其是解散國會提 前大選的具體日期。

Impact: GDP Forecasts 影響:GDP預測 According to earlier government forecasts, Thailand’s economy was expected to grow 4.5 percent this year. But at the end of April, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said the unrest had already cut economic growth by half a percentage point, and if the problem continued all year, the impact would be heavier – at around two points.

政府原先預測,今年泰國經濟將增長 4.5%。但到 4 月末,財政部長乃功表示, 衝突已致經濟增幅降低 0.5 個百分點,倘 若綿延整年,衝擊將更加沉重—大約兩個 百分點。

A day before Chatikavanij’s latest prediction, the central Bank of Thailand (BoT) had raised its growth forecast for this year from 3.3-5.3 percent to 4.3-5.8 percent, following a strong first quarter; although the Bank qualified this, by stating that but for the unrest, this range would have been 0.9 point higher. Economic growth in the first quarter is estimated at more than eight percent from a year earlier, driven by a strong recovery in exports as global demand recovered, according to the BoT. They added that exports should remain strong – unless airports are targeted by protesters, as in late 2008, or internal transport is disrupted. The Bank maintains its forecasts for this year of 25-28 percent export growth.

就在乃功講話前一天,泰國中央銀行發 佈經濟增長預測。在強勁增長的一季度過 後,泰國央行把今年的增長率預測從 3.35.3%,上調到 4.3-5.8%,但央行也澆了一 盆冷水,稱如果沒有動盪,預測範圍本該

再高 0.9 個百分點。央行說,得益於全球 需求回升,出口強勁復甦,估計一季度經 濟比去年同期增長 8% 以上。央行認為,假 如示威者不像 2008 年底那樣衝擊機場,或 者國內交通運輸不中斷,那麼出口應能保 持旺盛勢頭。央行維持今年出口增長 2528% 的預測。

Impact: Portfolio Investment 影響:投資組合 Although Thailand's stock market jumped 4.4 percent in reaction to the announcement of Abhisit's peace plan, three days later it fell 2.4 percent – with euro zone debt problems adding to the market’s concerns. The main index had managed to hit a 22-month peak in early April – but a few days later, violence flared and 25 people died in clashes between protesters and the security forces. Net foreign buying of stocks in 2010 hit $1.8 billion in early April, but this has now fallen to just $959 million.

阿披實宣佈和解方案後,泰國股市應聲 飆漲 4.4%,然而三天之後,由於歐元區債 務危機引發市場擔憂,泰股又重挫 2.4%。 4 月初,股指一度觸及 22 個月高位,但好 景不長,幾天後暴力升級,有 25 人在示威 者與安全部隊的衝突中斃命。2010 年外資 買入股票淨額於 4 月初達到 18 億美元,如 今減少到 9.59 億美元。

lowed by tentative buying among bargainhunters looking to benefit from one of Asia's cheapest markets, with the highest dividend yields. Five-year bond yields may test the eight-month lows reached recently, as investors seek refuge in safehaven government debt, and if a central bank rate rise in June looks unlikely.

想從泰國股市賺錢,投資者需對高度的 政治風險心中有數。股市的震盪肯定還會 持續,任何嚴重衝突都可能引發下跌,不 過這也帶來逢低吸納的機會,畢竟這裏是 亞洲最便宜而股息回報最高的市場之一。 由於投資者追捧安全係數較高的政府債券 來規避風險,如果央行 6 月份加息無望的 話,五年期債券收益率或會下探近期的八 個月低位。

Impact: Foreign Direct Investment 影響:外國直接投資 Foreign investment requests could fall by 15 percent to 300 billion baht in 2010, according to predictions from the Board of Investment (BOI). As the country's

Investors in the Thai market are wise to include a relatively high degree of political risk in their reckoning. Stocks are sure to remain volatile, with any serious unrest triggering falls -- but this may be folJUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


6

Current Affairs

biggest investors, Japanese companies have expressed concern and might start looking elsewhere if this crisis continues. However, foreign investment pledges still jumped 137 percent to 44.4 billion baht ($1.37 billion) in the first three months of this year, according to BOI data – with 49 percent coming from Japan.

據泰國投資促進委員會(「投資委」)預測, 2010 年泰國對外商投資的需求將下降 15% 至 3,000 億泰銖。作為泰國最大的投資群 體,日本企業對這場危機憂心忡忡,稱如 果危機久拖不決,也許將另覓投資地點。 不過投資委的數據顯示,今年前三個月的 已承諾外商投資激增 137%,達到 444 億泰 銖(13.7 億美元),其中 49% 來自日本。

But many foreign investors may well begin to rethink their plans if the public disorder persists. Over the long term, this could damage vehicle and electronics exports, impact the trade surplus, reduce the current account surplus, and hurt the baht.

然而對許多外國投資者來說,假如政局 持續動盪,或許他們得重新考慮投資計劃。 長期而言,這將損害泰國的汽車和電子產 品出口,影響貿易盈餘,減少經常項目盈餘, 及衝擊泰銖的匯率。

Impact: Tourism 影響:旅遊業 Although the tourist sector generates only a modest six percent of economic activity, it employs 15 percent of the workforce. The hotel occupancy rate has fallen to approximately 20 percent -- and luxury hotels around the red shirt encampment in Bangkok have emptied completely.

旅遊業僅佔泰國經濟總量的 6%,但卻給 15% 的勞動人口提供飯碗。現在,酒店入 住率已下降二成左右,而在曼 谷,紅衫軍集會地點周圍 的豪華飯店更是人 去樓空。

While the UK has lifted a blanket warning against travel to the whole of Thailand, it remains in place for the capital; and the United States and some other countries are still advising against travel anywhere in the country. Arrivals at Bangkok's main Suvarnabhumi airport fell by a third in April, and arrivals for 2010 could fall from the official target of 15.5 million down to 14.5 million, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents. Foreign arrivals also fell three percent to 14.1 million in 2009 – which was similarly blighted by political violence. That trouble also followed an airport blockade in late 2008, which disrupted commerce and stranded more than 200,000 tourists.

雖然英國解除了前往泰國的旅遊警告, 但對曼谷卻沒有網開一面,而美國等一些 國家,則依然告誡國民不要前往該國的任 何地方旅遊。據泰國旅行社協會統計,4 月份到達曼谷主要機場—蘇汪納蓬國際 機場的旅客人數下降三分之一,整個 2010 年的到達人數恐怕達不到官方 預期的 1,550 萬人次,而只有 1,450 萬人次。外國旅客到達 人數比 2009 年的 1,410 萬人 次減少 3%,是政治動盪使 他們望而卻步。2008 年底 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

曾發生過一起衝擊機場事件,導致機場營 運中斷,超過 20 萬旅客滯留。

Impact: Local Businesses 影響:本地商業 Consumer confidence fell in March; and as April saw the worst of the violence so far, the figures for this month (when released) are also expected to show that downward trend in confidence continuing. Shopping malls, hotels and offices in the Ratchaprasong district have been closed since the red shirt groups set up camp there in early April. The local business association says the protests have caused revenue losses of about 174 million baht ($5.4 million) a day. The government has offered to help businesses there, as well as the 25,000 employees it says have been affected. Domestic media are reporting the unrest has cost 63,000 jobs -- mainly in hotels and the tourism industry.

3月份消費者信心下跌。進入4月,隨著 暴力衝突白熱化,估計本月的消費者信心 將會繼續滑落。自從4月初紅衫軍在此安營 紮寨,拉差帕宋區的購物商場,酒店和寫字 樓就被迫關閉。據本地商業協會說,遊行


EconomyAffairs Current

7

and we will talk about it in more detail later.''

紅衫軍領袖之一的賈蘭,在最近紅衫軍 領導層會議後表示:「我們還沒有結束示 威的打算。我們提個方案給阿披實先生, 接下來將會詳細討論。」

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban has called for all Thais ''to avoid violence and help solve the problem. We have to seek co-operation from everyone to return Thailand to peace.''

副總理素貼呼籲所有泰國人民「克制暴 力,為解決困局出份力。我們希望人人都 能合作,使泰國恢復平靜。」

示威每天造成的收入損失高達1.74億泰銖 (540萬美元)。政府已設法為那裏的公司 和大約2.5萬受影響的員工提供幫助。據國 內媒體報道,衝突已造成6.3萬人失業,大 多集中在酒店和旅遊行業。

Following the grenade attacks in late April, one of Bangkok’s hot-spots for nightlife -- around Patpong in the Silom business district -- is now quiet and deserted most nights. Resorts outside the capital have also suffered: hotel occupancy on the island of Phuket has fallen from a typical 50 percent to just 12 percent, according to statistics referred to by the Finance Minister in April.

自從4月底發生手榴彈襲擊後,曼谷著名 夜市之一—席隆商業區附近的帕蓬路,幾 乎每晚都是門可羅雀,冷冷清清。首都以 外的旅遊勝地亦遭池魚之殃:4月份泰國財 長引述統計數據說,普吉島的酒店入住率 顯著下降五成,現在只有12%。

Impact: The Future? 影響:前途未蔔 The red shirts had agreed to abandon their Bangkok protests after the Prime Minister offered to dissolve Parliament in late September, ahead of a general election on November 14. But the protesters have since insisted they will not stand down until the government agrees to further talks.

阿披實總理提出9月底解散國會並在11月 14日舉行大選後,紅衫軍一度答應放棄曼 谷的示威活動,但是隨即又改口說除非政 府同意進一步談判,否則絕不罷休。

''We are not calling off the protests as yet'', Jaran Ditapichai said after a recent meeting of the red-shirt leadership. ''We have a proposal for Mr. Abhisit

Hopes for an imminent resolution of Thailand's bloody political crisis have been undermined yet again in these last few hours prior to publication of this issue, with more violence in Bangkok leaving two policemen dead and at least eight people injured. The city was returned to a state of high alert following a drive-by shooting and a series of grenade attacks in Silom Road, near the entrance to the red shirts' fortified camp. This area is under a heavy 24-hour guard, but these latest deaths bring the number killed over the two months of the current political crisis to 29, with more than 1000 people having been injured.

就在本文發表前的幾小時,曼谷街頭再 度上演暴力,導致兩名警察遇難,至少八 人受傷,使得結束這場血腥政治衝突的希 望又一次遭受打擊。曼谷全城恢復高度戒 備,因為通往紅衫軍營地的席隆路上響起 陣陣槍聲和手榴彈爆炸聲。此地帶已有重 兵 24 小時把守,而剛剛發生的傷亡事件, 使近兩個月死於這場政治危機的人數上升 到 29 人,千餘人受傷。

And Thailand’s economy is likely to remain a victim of this dangerous instability, vulnerable to suffering further painful symptoms — until the government can devise and execute an effective political programme of sustainable healing measures.

動盪局勢下,泰國經濟仍將陣痛不斷, 希望政府能夠拿出行之有效的政治方案付 諸實施,早日撫平動盪造成的創傷。 |AT|

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如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


8

Economy

The Poverty of Wealth 財富的貧缺 作者/by Bruce Curran

“Is there anyone so wise as to

learn by the experience of others?” Voltaire (French).

「有幾人知道汲取他人的教訓?」伏爾泰 (法國)

The continuing Asian economic boom all looks good in the media, and Asia is generally presented with its red carpet laid out well into the future. Meanwhile Europe falters under the collapse of Greece, and the USA tries to trick the world with spin about its boundless strength and world leadership qualities. Its all jargon in the end.

their populations. Austerity measures when applied by governments are traditionally unpopular, and the violence and activities in Greece are evidence for all to see.

西方各國雖然飽嘗經濟衰退之苦,但還 算良心未泯,其社會福利制度保障了民眾 的基本生活。政府要過緊日子向來都不得 民心,希臘的暴亂遊行就是最好例證。

Asian Wealth 亞洲之富 China, India and Russia are particularly seen to be flying, and all of Asia seems to be hanging on to their shirt sleeves and turning in the growth. In China 亞洲經濟持續向前,報紙上一派歌舞昇 the success of capitalist wealth, carefully 平,亞洲出盡風頭,奔向了未來的康莊大道。 engineered by communism, is heralded as 然歐洲卻因希臘危機身陷困局,美國憑著 the perfect formula. 超強實力和主宰世界的野心,想把世界玩 弄於鼓掌之中,而這一切只是癡心妄想。

The Western world may be suffering economically, but by and large they are a conscientious lot and play a big store by social welfare foundations in supporting ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

big changes that are pitiful to behold. Household waste levels have soared and the city is struggling to contain the pollution that it creates in the housing areas next to waste sites. The millions of new private cars on the pristine roads of the capital are snarled into traffic that runs for miles from one end to the other. And this is only the beginning. Give the city 5 more years and the traffic will be intolerable. The Chinese think, like the old west, that a private car is the outward expression of success. In Hong Kong , where there are more Rolls Royces per square mile than in any other place on earth , many people live in sky-rise tiny matchboxes with their whole families on top of each other, but drive around in Mercedes Benz motorcars.

北京的突飛猛進有目共睹,但隨之而來的 中國 , 印度和俄國一往無前,亞洲其他 國家也搭上了順風車,經濟發展有聲有色。 巨大改變讓人難以接受。生活垃圾成倍增長, 城市不堪重負,住宅區與垃圾場僅一牆之隔。 中國在共產主義大旗下的資本主義財富積 數百萬新私家車湧向老舊的道路,進一步加 累被標榜為一種完美體制。 劇了交通堵塞,車流綿延數裏望不到盡頭。 Beijing may be booming no doubt, 而這僅僅才是開始。再過五年,首都的交通 but rapid growth has brought with it


9

Economy

將更加惡化。就像以前的西方人一樣,中國 人也將私家車當成是成功的象徵。全球單位 平方英里上勞斯萊斯數量最多的城市就是香 港,然而進門是全家老少簇擁在水泥大廈一 個小小火柴盒裏的局促,出門卻是賓士代步 的派頭,這在香港並不罕見。

It is all to do with ‘face’ in the end. ‘Face’ being that intangible element whereby you give an impression of something high and mighty, avoiding the reality which is too mean and lean to reveal to others. In Asia ‘face’ is paramount, and all these essentially western inventions like the TV, the telephone, and the motorcar have a side to them that is a nonsense.

如若將福特 Expedition 拆去內飾,可不 就一個四口之家的安樂窩嘛。這絕非笑談, 也不是針對福特,而是千萬亞洲城市貧民 居住條件的真實寫照。

The largest car market in the world is China, and the Ford Motor Company is determined to set up 100 new outlets in the country over the next 12 months. What about pollution, what about carbon footprints, what about saving the planet? Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Tata and many other Asian car companies are on the band wagon.

中國是全球最大的汽車市場,福特計劃 於未來 12 個月內在華增設 100 個經銷店。 可是污染誰來管?碳印記誰來管?拯救地 球誰來管?豐田 , 現代 , 本田 , 塔塔等一 眾亞洲汽車企業也都爭先恐後,照樣學樣。

歸結起來就是「面子」二字。 「面子」是 一種虛榮,是用風光無限的表像來掩飾背 地裏的辛酸難堪。 「面子」對亞洲人來說比 什麼都重要,跟「面子」相比,諸如電視機 , The better educated are indeed getting 電話機 , 汽車之類的洋玩意, 根本不算什麼。 richer, and getting there quicker than

Take the size of a Ford Expedition, with its massive levels of fuel consumption relative to a practical small car, and you have a gas burner par excellence to deplete our global resources. Well not really, but you know the meaning.

福特 Expedition 的確寬敞舒適,但油耗 要遠遠高於經濟型轎車,這樣一隻油老虎 胃口大得能把將地球資源吃光吃盡。雖然 有些言過其實,但也不無道理。

There again, take a Ford Expedition, strip it out and you have a perfect shell for a family of 4 to live in. This is no joke, and not directed against Ford, but just defines the kind of space sizes that a lot of the urban poor live in in Asia.

those before them. That old chestnut will just not go way, and that old cliché rears its ugly head - “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” How many thousands of US$ millionaires are there now in China?

受教育程度高者的確趕上了好時候,其 財富增長速度可謂是長江後浪推前浪。還 是那句老話 :富人越來越有富,窮人越來 越窮。這是顛撲不破的道理。那麼中國現 在到底有多少資產逾百萬美元的富翁呢?

When one travels to the gleaming new airports all over Asia, and stay in classy hotels in booming cities it seems like there is no end to the development and the wealth.

徜徉於亞洲各個金碧輝煌的機場大廳, 出入於繁華都市的星級酒店,我們看到的 是一片欣欣向榮 , 眾安道泰。

However, go to the edges of these cities, go to the country side, go to the farm lands, the non-developed areas and you see a different picture, which is often not a pretty one.

然而走出城區,踏進農村,下到田埂地頭, 深入落後地區,則完全是另一番景象。

Asian Poverty 亞洲之貧 The individual, by and large, is driven by personal gain and greed. Profit and growth are heralded as the benefits of this state of affairs. All over Asia there are pockets of this, basking in the sunlight of a perceived success. In the shadows lurks

Beijing

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

The USA, despite its massive wealth, and its impoverished claim to use, annually, 40% of the world’s resources, still has appalling poverty within its own borders another beast, the friend of poverty, the family who have no access to the ‘boom’. A strange magnetic effect takes place at the edge of every city. The country folk think the city has all the answers, and on every street corner is a job and a way to earn money. This perception is wide spread and contributes to the situation, which often turns to misery.

6 month show is “Better Life, Better Living”, aimed at improving the lives of the world population who are running in ever increasing numbers to live in the urban pomp and swamps of the city. Ironically, it will fuel the fire of urban poverty. The question is, do the rising middle classes have the wherewithal to feed the revolution needed with the increasing social vulnerability of the masses? In other words, will profit mongering and economic growth set greed aside and feed the masses.

全世界最盛大的演出——世界博覽會, 此刻正在上海舉行。作為中國的經濟中心, 這座城市流金淌銀,滿眼皆是經濟發展的 累累碩果。為期六個月的世界博覽會,以 「城市讓生活更美好」為主題,要讓越來越 多沉浸在城市的繁華與滄桑的人們,過上 越來越美好的生活。然而諷刺的是,城市 的貧困也許將因此惡化。想想看,正在興 起的中產階級,他們果然有資本來促成一 場被越來越多的弱勢群體翹首以待的革命 嗎?再想想看,面對經濟的增長和利益的 誘惑,人們果然能放棄貪欲,而把實惠留 給普羅大眾嗎?

人都是逐利的,因此才想去賺錢,才想 不斷地賺錢。在亞洲,成功的陽光普照大 地,到處繁花似錦。然而在陰暗角落,卻 蟄伏著貧困的幽靈,他們與「繁榮」毫不 In the end the matter will only 相干。城市的邊緣地帶,有一種奇怪的現象, be addressed by responsible social 鄉下人都嚮往城市,以為城裏遍地是黃金。 government. 這種想法深入人心,可是美夢成真者鳳毛 歸根結底,這些問題必須要有負責任的 麟角,大多數人都只落得個淒慘下場。 政府才能解決。

Shanghaied in Shanghai 上海之殤 The greatest show on earth, the World Expo is currently open in Shanghai. Clearly this city is China’s flagship centre, which smells of money and reeks of economic success. The theme for the

Shanghai

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

“East meets West” 「當東方遇見西方」 The USA, despite its massive wealth, and its impoverished claim to use, annually, 40% of the world’s resources, still has appalling poverty within its own borders. Can Asia learn from this failure,

George Orwell

and fight the good fight for the good of the people.

美國雖號稱富國,每年消耗的資源佔到 全球 40%,但國內仍然有大批窮人。亞洲 能否從中汲取教訓,為民眾掀起變革。

George Orwell noted, in his most famous book, Animal Farm, that “we are all equal, but some are more equal than others”. Herein lies the quandary, can social vulnerability be soothed by social responsibility, or will greed (fuelled by corruption) continue to take centre stage.

喬治 • 奧威爾在其著作《動物莊園》中 寫到 : 「我們都是平等的,但是有些人比其 他人更加平等」。這就有一個問題,社會責 任能否解決社會問題,或者說貪念(在腐 敗的縱容下)是否會繼續肆意橫行。

The Asian Candy 亞洲糖果 Asia is still in its economic infancy and boisterously flashing its new found wealth like a kid in a candy store. Once the excitement has died down, will they be able to chew on their cud and milk the needs of the greater population who are not party to the mainstream changes. This population live their lives off stage blinkered in an ancient routine where “every man takes the limits of his field of vision for the limits of the world”. (Arthur Schopenauer). Only those who can break this mould will see the light of the new economic dawn. It may look like a simple formula but can Asia make the grade and not be dragged down by the excessive


Economy

11

obsession, nurtured in the West, with materialism.

亞洲仍然處於經濟發展的起步階段,就 像糖果店裏的孩童舉著新寶貝四處炫耀。 一旦熱情褪去,他們是否會靜心反思,照 顧沒有從大變革中受惠的普羅大眾。這些 人日復一日過著同樣的生活,沒有絢麗光 芒,「人人都把自己視野領域的極限當作世 界的極限」(阿瑟 • 叔本華)。唯有敢於打 破這一桎梏的人才能看見新經濟的黎明曙 光。這看似簡單,但亞洲能否成功擺脫西 方土地滋生的迷妄與拜金,我們還將拭目 以待。

Asian Population Rotation 亞洲人口膨脹 There are other ingredients which will infect the new found wealth. Remarkably, many moons ago China saw the perceived dangers of a rapidly increasing population and closed the doors to couples having more than one child. In many other parts of Asia the pendulum is at the other end of the spectrum, and large families are the norm. Population growth, whether governments like it or not, is a major issue. Not least is the ability to feed the people.

48% to an estimated 89,000,000. The import of rice is up to 20% of its own production now, and with Climate change and all, there is an increasing strain on the social fabric to survive and provide for the people. The International Rice Institute at Los Banos, close to Manila, has created ways of massively increasing rice yields, but 新興財富還將受到其他因素的影響。十 分難得的是,多年前中國就已預見到人口 this is not enough, and these yield increases 快速增長的惡果,規定一對夫妻只准生一 are now slowing down. All in all the poor 個。而在亞洲其他國家,情況卻完全不同, are indeed getting poorer. Then again, when 多子多孫才是福。無論政府認同與否,人 it comes to population control, religion does 口增長都是個大問題,首當其衝的就是如 not see itself fit to lend a helping hand, and 何養活這麼多張嘴。 will not kowtow to simple logic, preferring to be fed by a spiritual rationality fuelled by The Philippines is a prime example. mindful wizardry. Decades ago the Philippines could feed 菲律賓就是個典型例子。三十年前,菲 itself off its own rice crop. 30 years ago it 律賓人口數量約有 6000 萬人,與英國相當, had the identical population size to the 僅靠國內糧食產量便可自給自足。如今英 UK – 60 million people. Today, the UK 國人口還保持在 6000 萬左右,而菲律賓卻 population is pretty well still 60 million, 猛然增至 89,000,000,漲幅達 48%。進口 while the Philippines has increased some 糧食佔到國內產量的 20%,加上氣候變化 等因素,社會壓力越來越大,維持民眾生 計越來越力不從心。位於洛斯巴諾斯(靠 近馬尼拉)的國際水稻研究所曾經發明了 多種大規模提高水稻產量的方法,但這只 是杯水車薪,而且這些水稻目前的產量均 有下滑。總之,窮人真的越來越窮了。可 是話又說回來,宗教對人口控制並不贊同, 不會向這個簡單的道理俯首稱臣,他們講 究的是精神信仰,尤其還有處心積慮的迷 信在一旁煽風點火。

Worldwide there are an estimated 159 births every minute, which translates into 83,570,400 each and every year!

Food and energy issues are burgeoning in conjunction with the trappings of wealth - materialism. As of 9th May 2010, the human population of the world is estimated by the United States Census Bureau to be 6,819,800,000 (6.8 billion). Leading food experts indicate that the earth could support perhaps 16 billion people, but throw in the current trends towards rampant materialism, and surely the world will spin off its axis and resign.

世界上每分鐘就有 159 個嬰兒誕生,每 年就有 83,570,400 !再加上人們拜金炫 富,糧食能源危機日漸突出。美國人口普 查局估計,截至 2010 年 5 月 9 日全球人口 為 6,819,800,000(68 億)。某些糧食專家 表示地球完全可以養活 160 億人,但考慮 到當下的物質享樂之風,地球一定會被我 們壓垮脊樑。

Other grand Statistics boast of annual economic growth, skyscrapers galore, neon signs flashing and all those trappings that portray a canvas of Asian success… but it all leads to the Poverty of Wealth in the End.

統計數據大肆吹噓經濟每年增長多少, 高樓崛起多快,霓虹燈多麼閃耀,一切的 一切都描繪出了一副亞洲繁榮圖—但也將 最終導致財富的貧缺。|AT|

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如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

The Philippines – a Home to Excellence in unexpected places.

菲律賓:誰說不可能 作者/by Bruce Curran

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010


Economy

Macro Economics 宏觀經濟 Everyone who likes to be

informed about new trends is already well aware that Manila, and the Philippines is host to the very critical “sunshine industry”. Call Centres and Back-Office operations are at the heart of the worldwide Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry that is sweeping through this country as a result of its classy spoken English levels and educational prowess. Like in any industry there is a niche market where only the best will do, and the Philippines has gained a reputation as ‘the place to be’ when it comes to BPO setups. ‘Call Centres’ are booming in at least 20 cities around the country, and ‘Back-office’ operations are keying into high accounting, office and legal standards, as well as the technological expertise of a highly educated workforce.

在看護和護理領域,菲律賓人同樣聲名 遠播,不僅得到美國 , 澳大利亞和英國的 認可,更通行於世界許多國家。

One other example reflects the pride of the Filipino’s expertise, with more than 20% of the world’s merchant fleets employing Filipino crew to run the ships of the international cargo trade.

據說全世界有 20% 多的商船隊都僱用菲 律賓船員駕駛國際貨輪,菲律賓人的本事 可見一斑。

There are still more hits for the Filipino, since it is well known that any self-respecting hotel in South East Asia from Shanghai to Singapore has a Philippine band on tap to settle the evening crowds, performing in venues from Bangkok to Bali.

菲律賓人的多才多藝聲名遠播,君不見 從上海到新加坡,從曼谷到巴厘島,但凡 有品位的酒店,都有菲律賓樂隊駐紮於此, 有了他們的每個夜晚都是多姿多彩。

This local expertise, professional proficiency, practical reality and consciousness are actually having a knock on effect of another kind. There is an increasing awareness amongst foreign companies and open-minded foreign nationals that the Philippines has something special to offer within these tropical shores. There is an increasing ‘marriage’ between nations that reflects the magic formula expressed in the phrase ‘east meets west’.

關注潮流的人都對馬尼拉耳熟能詳,今 天的菲律賓是「朝陽產業」的故鄉。呼 叫中心和辦公室後勤是全球業務流程外 判(BPO)產業的核心,而菲律賓憑藉英語 國家的優勢和高水平的教育,把這個產業 做得風生水起。無論什麼行業,都有一個 縫隙市場,唯有最優秀者才配得上它。拿 BPO 來說,菲律賓就是這個產業的風水寶 地。呼叫中心已在全國二十多個城市落地 生根,辦公室後勤正在融入高等會計 , 辦 公和法定標準,並被受過良好教育的勞動 人口所掌握。

天賦的特長,專業的素養,現實的因素, 再加上出眾的意識,激發出神奇的連鎖反 應。越來越多的外國公司和有眼光的外國 人意識到,在這片熱帶海岸成長起來的菲 律賓人有著與生俱來的特質。國際間的交 流日益密切,「東西合璧」是最好的寫照。

In another field, the Filipino has gained a high reputation in the care giving and nursing fields, well documented in the USA, Australia and UK, but utilised in many other countries as well.

Micro Economics 宏觀經濟 It is often the case of ‘east-meets-west’ when it comes to creating excellence, and

13

the Filipino has gained a high reputation in the care giving and nursing fields, well documented in the USA, Australia and UK, but utilised in many other countries as well there are many cases of this trend in the Philippine Islands. One does not have to look very far when it comes to spotting this trend. The niche market of dental engineering is a prime example.

「東西合璧」創造卓越。在島國菲律賓, 這樣的例子比比皆是。體會這種潮流,不 必捨近求遠,牙科工程學這個縫隙市場便 是一例。

Who would have guessed that this obscure but vital science mixed with precision art, has found a place to serve the dental industry worldwide from the heart of Manila.

誰曾想到,這個既深奧又重要而且需要 精密技藝的學科,居然能在馬尼拉開花結 果,服務於全世界的牙科產業。

The offshoot of this simple fact is that the Filipino, a dotting slave to the world of celebrities and awed by media glamour has a friend on the doorstep. The proverbial ‘smile’ just has to be the master and mistress of ceremony, especially when it

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

comes to the delicate subject of image and presentability.

在這個領域,菲律賓人贏得上層名流的 信賴和媒體的尊敬,因為他們擁有這方面 的天賦。誰都想擁有典禮儀式上主持人那 般迷人的微笑,畢竟它代表著人的形象和 氣質。

Let’s face it, teeth are truly big business, and assuming everyone in the Philippines has a full set, at a population of 80 million, that would mean 2,560 million teeth mouthed in the Filipino people. Of course, most people are beyond the beck and call of dental perfection, but there is a growing middle class who are eager to join the ranks of the rich and famous. Dentistry has become a mainstream event for them.

dentistry needs to be a well respected service industry, where highly refined Japanese and

European dental machinery combined

with sophisticated computer programming, can be operated by

skilled Filipino technicians, creating a

所以說,牙齒的確是一門大生意。在擁 有八千萬人口的菲律賓,假如人人牙齒齊 全的話,算下來就有 25.6 億顆牙齒。當然, 對大多數人來說,完美無瑕的牙齒未必是 不可或缺,但假如你是日益興起的中產階 層的一員,又渴望與名流富豪為伍,那麼 ming, can be operated by skilled Filipino 牙齒問題可馬虎不得。 technicians, creating a world-class combi-

world-class combination

Mouthing Off - Service with a Smile 為「微笑」服務 Under the circumstances, dentistry needs to be a well respected service industry, where highly refined Japanese and European dental machinery combined with sophisticated computer program-

nation. This is indeed the case in this day and age in Manila.

牙醫是一門備受尊重的服務行業。眾所 周知,牙科機械以日本和歐洲所造最為精 密,並且配備先進的電腦程序,而這些機 械與技藝嫺熟的菲律賓醫師的組合,堪稱 舉世無雙的絕配。今時今日的馬尼拉正是 如此。

Excellence is reflected worldwide at many levels and in many fields. The beauty, refinement and precision in the world of high-end Swiss Watch Making is a well-worn and classic example. Like with most things, sleek exteriors can hide a host of hidden excellence, and in the newer world of aesthetic dentistry there is no exception.

在全世界,卓越體現在許多層面和領域。 造型精美,走時精確的瑞士鐘錶,就是享 譽世界的例子。美於形而精於內,崇尚審 美的牙科醫學亦是如此。

In Manila, a highly trained Swiss national, following the example set by the watch making industry, is host to another brand of brilliance. Dental machinery comes at a price, but there is no substitute for perfection when it comes to providing top-line dental services to match the capabilities of sophisticated technology.

在馬尼拉有一個瑞士人,就像祖國的製 錶業一樣,他把另一種技藝演繹到極致。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

牙科機械造價不菲,要想用它提供上佳的 牙科服務,必須具備高超的技術。

Fritz Minder has all the credentials, with over 20 years of hands-on experience, and is a highly sought after official instructor for dental courses for the respected Japanese company, Noritake NDS. In 2009 he decided to combine all his professional capabilities and formed Swissdent in Manila.

弗里茨 • 邁德爾是這門職業的不二人 選,他投身此行已有二十多年。作為一個 備受推崇的專家,他曾為著名的日本公司 Noritake NDS 開辦過牙科教程。2009 年, 他決定集中所長,一展身手,於是在馬尼 拉創辦了 Swissdent 牙科診所。

He for one sees the sense in combining international technology with the skill capabilities of the carefully trained Filipino worker. He is not alone.

他相信國際尖端技術與嫺熟而仔細的菲 律賓技師是天作之合。有這種想法的人, 不止他一個。

A Bite at the Cherry 一試便知 The fact is, this Swiss gentleman has set up an operation that provides tip-top dental services to people far and wide. On the ground in the Philippines, it is a case of dentists and patients alike being made aware of this expertise that exists in their own backyard. It is already well known that Switzerland, Germany and Japan are associated with excellence, but in the modern world, there is room for


Economy

State-of-the-art materials, space-age technology, and trained Filipino technicians gives the world access to a perfect match its head. Dental work is the new kid on the block. There may be a magnum of jargon in such scientific phrases as: Zirconium restoration: full synthetic veneers; 這位瑞士紳士創辦的診所,以其無可挑 剔的牙科服務,吸引四面八方的人士慕名 Cad/Cam Noritake-Katana milling; and 而來。在菲律賓,不論牙科醫生還是患者, diagnostic wax ups, but in the end it all 大家都知道自己的國家就有最好的技術。 boils down to a cute smile. the addition of a fine Asian ingredient to be added to the final solution, in order to complete the picture.

瑞士 , 德國和日本的精益求精舉世公認, 現在亞洲國家也在迎頭趕上。

The world is recently obsessed with cultural preservation and conservation of everything worthwhile. This includes the natural beauty found on land and in the oceans. In the Philippines the rich cultural heritage is on the agenda for restoration services. Coral and marine life is paramount in an archipelago of more than 7000 islands.

近年來,文化保護和這樣那樣的保護熱 大行其道,陸地和海洋的自然保護亦在其 中。菲律賓有豐富的文化遺產亟待修復。 在這個由七千多座島嶼組成的島國,沒有 什麼比珊瑚和海洋生物更為重要。

On land there is a host of opportunities, but within the economic circles of the more refined cities in the country, it is restoration of another kind that has raised

在陸地上同樣不乏機遇,但是從經濟角 度來說,在注重生活質素的城市裏,另一 種形式的修復更有用武之地,那就是牙科。 這門學科有許多專業術語,如 :鋯修復術 , 全合成整牙術 ,CAD/CAM Noritake-Katana 研磨術 , 診斷用蠟形…無論什麼技術,歸 根結底都是讓你擁有燦爛的微笑。

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give the demanding well-heeled locals a chance to rub shoulders with the best on our Globe. Get smart, and if it is a metal free Zirconium restoration that you need, guided by an encounter of the third kind, then you are in the right place, and the right time is now! It is a bite at the bright red cherry that should not be missed.

在菲律賓,諸如 Swissdent 等公司讓慕 名而至的當地人得以享受不亞於世界任何 地方的服務。假如你想鑲烤瓷義齒,馬尼 拉是最佳選擇,試過便知此言非虛。

Talking of food, Manila itself is a diners’ paradise, with restaurants from all corners of the earth offering their specialities.

State-of-the-art materials, space-age technology, and trained Filipino technicians gives the world access to a perfect match. Swiss quality standards, the benefits of expertise, experience, know-how and dedication must kowtow to a world audience.

先進材料 , 尖端技術,加上訓練有素的 菲律賓醫師,堪稱完美組合。來自瑞士的 品質標準,精湛技藝,豐富經驗,技術訣 竅和專業精神,不得不令人折服。

But the truth of the matter is companies like Swissdent in the Philippines

Here you can eat like royalty. However, if you happen to do some damage by biting on the cherry stone by mistake, have no fear, for world class services are on tap. Within no time at all you can sport your confident smile, and carry on enjoying life in this tropical paradise, knowing that a Katana Zirconium Dioxide Cad/Cam dental facility is right on your doorstep.

說到美食,馬尼拉可謂是美食家的天堂, 街頭巷尾,餐廳食肆比比皆是,各色美食 一應俱全,定能讓你大快朵頤。若是不小 心吃壞了牙齒,別擔心,世界最棒的牙醫 就在你身邊。只需片刻,你就能換上自信 的微笑,盡情享受這個熱帶天堂的美妙生 活,因為 Katana 烤瓷義齒和 CAD/CAM 牙科 診所就在你身邊。|AT|

For any enquiries or comments about this article please send to: feedback@asiantir.com

如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

Opportunity and money lies in Malaysia’s hospital waste management market

馬來西亞醫療垃圾管理市 場:淘金之地,財富之門 作者/by Pawel Suwinski / Nurul Fatiha

One man’s thrash is another man’s treasure! 垃圾堆裏能淘金! Hospital waste management has

been a topic long discussed and regulated within most countries with an advanced healthcare system. In 1997, Malaysia introduced a new business model for public healthcare support services in a bid to contain rising medical costs and maintain affordability. The new concept was to corporatize the services by outsourcing to the private sector with the hope that for-profit governance will help in managing resources more economically and efficiently. As part of the exercise, 3 companies were selected to provide 7 types of support services, among them medical waste management. 在醫療系統發達的國家中,醫療垃圾管理 一直是一個備受關注的話題,監管十分嚴 格。為控制醫療費用,讓民眾看得起病, 1997 年馬來西亞推行了一種全新的公共醫 療輔助服務運營模式。新模式的理念是對 輔助服務進行私有制改革,將其外判給私 營企業,希望這種以盈利為前提的管治模 式能夠讓資源配置更加經濟 , 高效。作為 試點單位,有三間公司獲得七類輔助服務 的經營權,其中之一便是醫療垃圾管理。 •

Faber Medi-Serve Sdn Bhd serves 79 government-owned hospitals and 500 smaller clinics in the states of Perlis, Kedah, Penang, Perak, Sarawak and Sabah

Faber Medi-Serve Sdn Bhd,為玻璃市 , 吉打 , 檳城 , 霹靂 , 沙撈越和沙巴的 79 間國有醫院及 500 間小型診所服務

Radicare Sdn Bhd serves 47 other hospitals in Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Kelantan, Pahang and Terengganu.

Radicare Sdn Bhd,為吉隆坡 , 布城 , 吉蘭丹 , 彭亨和丁加奴的 47 間醫院服務

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010


Economy

剩下的柔佛 , 森美蘭和馬六甲三州 22 間 醫院的醫療垃圾

In 2009, the three concessionaires generated nearly RM200 million in revenue by managing 15,952 tones of discarded needles and syringes, scalpels, discarded surgical instruments, contaminated bandages, human tissues and body parts, and many other potentially infectious wastes turning them into inert and less harmful ‘ash’, as stipulated by the Ministry of Health and the Department of Environment. This often overlooked sector within the healthcare industry is expected to grow at an average 12.8 percent annually, to reach RM672 million by 2015.

• Pantai Medivest Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Pantai Holdings Berhad manages the clinical waste from 22 hospitals in the remaining 3 states of Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka.

Pantai Medivest Sdn Bhd,Pantai Holdings Berhad 的附屬公司,負責管理

2009 年三大特許經營商合共實現收入 2 億馬幣,按衛生部及環境署要求處理醫療 垃圾 15,952 噸,包括廢棄針頭 , 注射器 , 手術刀 , 外科器具 , 受汚繃帶 , 人體組織 器官及其他多種潛在感染性廢棄物,處理 方式為將其焚燒成危害較小的惰性「灰 燼」。作為醫療行業中常常被忽視的一塊領 域,預計將以每年 12.8% 的平均速度增長, 2015 年整體市場蛋糕將達 6.72 億馬幣。

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Clinical waste management in Malaysia 馬來西亞醫療垃圾管理現狀 Management of clinical waste in Malaysia is based on the ‘cradle-to-grave’ concept, where the concessionaires bear most of the responsibilities for every step in the life cycle of medical waste, which includes supply of the consumables, collection of waste at the generators’ sites, storage, transportation to treatment sites, and disposal in treatment plants. However, the initial stage of waste disposal, which is waste segregation, is performed by healthcare providers.

馬來西亞的醫療垃圾管理推行「從搖籃 到墳墓」的制度,特許經營商幾乎是一肩 擔當醫療垃圾整個生命週期的每一個環節, 包括消耗品的供應,垃圾的收集 , 貯存 , 運輸及處置,僅垃圾處置的第一步——垃 圾分類是由醫療服務提供商負責。

The generation of clinical waste is closely related to the size and growth of healthcare services. In Malaysia, the number of healthcare institutions is changing at a rapid rate as hospitals add new services and change procedures on an

不同來源醫療垃圾年產量(1997-2015 年)

MOH 垃圾量

非 MOH 垃圾量

總垃圾量

Chart : Historical and Projected Growth in Domestic Clinical Waste in Metric Tonnes (1997 to 2015).Source : Department of Environment and Ministry of Health, Malaysia Chart : Historical and Projected Growth in Domestic Clinical Waste in Metric Tonnes (1997 to Chart : Historical and Projected Growth in Domestic Clinical in Waste in Metric Tonnes (1997Waste to 2015).Source : Department of Environment Chart : Historical and Projected Growth Domestic Clinical in Metric Tonnes (1997 to 2015).Source Department of Environment and Ministry of Health, Malaysia and Ministry of Health,: Malaysia 2015).Source : Department of Environment and Ministry of Health, Malaysia Future outlook of clinical waste generation in Malaysia 圖表 :國內醫療垃圾過往及預計增速(1997-2015 年,單位公噸) 。資料來源 :馬來西亞衛生部及環境署 Future outlook of clinical waste generation in Malaysia Future clinical waste generation incountry Malaysia In 2009,outlook hospitalsofand health centers across the produced 15,953 tons of clinical JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT waste, almost three and times the total load across generated 2000. produced The threefold increase In 2009, hospitals health centers the in country 15,953 tons in of clinical clinical In 2009, hospitals and health centers across the country produced 15,953 tons of clinical waste hastimes beenthe attributed to generated increase ofinnumber of healthcare institutions, rise waste,production almost three total load 2000. The threefold increase in clinical


18

Economy

annual basis as they refocus and upgrade operating activities.

醫療垃圾的產生量與醫療服務的規模和 發展密切相關。馬來西亞醫療機構的數量 急速上升,醫院在調整和升級經營業務的 同時每年都在增加新服務,改變舊程序。

Between 2006 to 2008, a total of 3 new government hospitals and 10 new private hospitals opened to the public and several others underwent expansions, increasing the number of treatment beds in the country by 2,525. In 2009, the Malaysian healthcare system comprised of 352 hospitals; 9,386 clinics; 3,635 dental clinics; hundreds of diagnostic, research, transfusion, and haemodialysis centres, as well as several maternity & nursing homes.

2006 至 2008 年間,共有三間新政府醫院 和十間新私家醫院向公眾開放,還有若干 醫院完成了擴建,國內新增床位 2,525 張。 2009 年,馬來西亞醫療系統共有醫院 352 double-digit growth is the result of 3 間,診所 9,386 間,牙科診所 3,635 間,診療 , main market drivers described below. 研究 , 輸血 , 血液透析中心幾百間,以及 2009 年全國醫院及醫療中心產生醫療垃 產科醫院和療養院若干。 圾 15,953 噸,較 2000 年增長近三倍。增 長如此之快的原因在於醫療機構數量增加, Future outlook of clinical waste 住院及就診人數提升,一次性醫療器具用 generation in Malaysia 量上升。未來五年該行業預計將以 13% 的 複合年增長率飛速向前,而這主要得益於 馬來西亞醫療垃圾產量前景展望 以下三大市場助力。 In 2009, hospitals and health centers

across the country produced 15,953 tons of clinical waste, almost three times the total load generated in 2000. The threefold increase in clinical waste production has been attributed to increase number of healthcare institutions, rise in number of hospital admissions and clinic visits, and higher usage of disposable clinical instruments. In the next 5 years, the growth of this industry is expected to remain strong with a CAGR of about 13%. The

In 2009, hospitals and health centers across the country produced 15,953 tons of clinical waste, almost three times the total load generated in 2000 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

1. Growth in the Private Healthcare sector 私營醫療行業的發展

In 1980, there were only 1,171 private hospital beds in the country. By 2008, to meet demand, the number of treatment beds available at private healthcare providers grew to 11,689.

回望 1980 年, 整個大馬私家醫院僅有 1,171 張床位。為滿足市場需求,2008 年私人醫療 服務供應商的床位數達到了 11,689 張。

Medical Tourism further drives growth in with more than 400,000 foreign medical tourists having sought care in 2009. The most popular medical procedures include cosmetic surgeries, dental surgery, total hip replacement, cardiovascular, oncological treatments as well as organ transplants. In 2010, an estimated 519,000 medical tourists are expected to visit Malaysia.

2009 年有 400,000 餘名外國醫療遊客來 馬,這更是起到推波助瀾的作用。熱門醫 療項目包括整容 , 口腔整容 , 全髖關節置 換 , 心血管疾病治療 , 腫瘤治療及器官移 植。預計 2010 年馬來西亞將吸引 519,000 名醫療遊客入境。

A study conducted on a hospital waste incineration plant in the Northern part of Peninsula Malaysia found a positive correlation in hospital occupancy rate and the generation of waste. In 2002, the estimated rate of clinical waste generation varied between 0.3 and 0.8 kg per occupied bed per day. In 2006, the clinical waste originating from these facilities gathered from private hospitals accounted for 27 percent of the total clinical waste load, up from on 20.3% in 2000.

一項針對北馬來西亞半島醫療垃圾焚燒 廠的研究顯示,醫院入住率與垃圾產量成 正比增長。2002 年,每張入住床位每天估 計產生 0.3-08 千克的醫療垃圾。2006 年, 這些企業收集自私家醫院的醫療垃圾在醫 療垃圾總量中的佔比由 2000 年的 20.3% 升 至 27%。

2. Pandemic of New Strains of Infectious Diseases 流行病新變種的大蔓延

The pandemic like the A (H1N1) influenza, the Bird flu and the Severe Acute


Economy

19

Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak have in the past intensified infection control activities in Malaysia. During such times, several changes are often made to clinical waste policies. For example, in the recent strategy to combat the spread of pandemic influenza, the Ministry of Health had outlined that any material that comes into contact with ‘isolated patients’ are to be handled as potentially infectious. At the same time, all disposable items and personal protective equipments like facial masks are to be regarded as clinical waste and to be disposed accordingly; resulting in an increase in the clinical waste volume generated.

之前甲流 (H1N1), 禽流感 , 非典 (SARS) 等流行病的爆發迫使馬來西亞加強了感染 控制。在此期間,醫療垃圾制度也作出了 不少改進。例如,為防止流感肆虐,衛生 部出台新政規定,凡「被隔離病人」接觸 過的物品均應視作已被感染。此外,所有 一次性用品及口罩等個人防護裝備均應視 作醫療垃圾,須予銷毀。如此以來,醫療 垃圾怎能不增加。

3. Aging Malaysian Population 人口老齡化

It is estimated that by the year 2035 Malaysia will become an “old” nation with 10% of the total population being over 65 years of age. The growth of medical care facilities and retirement homes catering to both local and expatriates under the “Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H)” participants may also help to increase the load of clinical waste generated in the country. (Source: United Nations).

The elderly typically consume more healthcare services, and the care required by older people is more resource intense, and needs to be delivered in institutionalized settings. Hospitalisation is more common for the age range of 60 and above, and the tendency is that it is longer in duration, thus generating higher quantities of clinical waste.

負荷運轉,一天二十四小時全年無休,全 國每年僅可焚燒 18,571 噸醫療垃圾——遠 低於 2011 年的預計垃圾總產量。

將產生更多醫療垃圾。

考慮到該行業的眼前及長遠需求,特許 經營企業可能會在不久的將來投資新建焚 燒爐或提高現有設施的處理量。焚燒當然 是處理醫療垃圾的一個相對簡單的途徑, 不過它有不少缺點使其吸引力大打折扣, 或者不能大範圍推廣。

It is very likely that in coping with the immediate and the long-term need of the industry, concession companies may invest in building new incinerators or increase the capacity of their existing facilities in the near future. Although the burning of 一般而言,長者需要更多的醫療服務, clinical waste in incinerators is a relatively 而且所需醫療服務基本屬於資源緊張領域, easy method of disposal, it has major 需要專門機構。花甲之年或者年逾花甲的 drawbacks that make it unattractive and 長者住院頻率更高,住院時間更長,因此 uncommon.

From ashes to 「焚燒成灰」之外 In 2009, several waste treatment facilities were already receiving clinical waste loads 估計馬來西亞將在 2035 年邁入老齡化社 exceeding their design capacity. Frost & 會,65 歲及以上人口將佔到總人口的 10%。 Sullivan estimates that the total load of 為滿足本國民眾及「馬來西亞我的第二家 clinical waste may reach 32,891 tonnes by 園」計劃下移民的需求,醫療機構及養老 2020, registering an annual growth rate of 院數量必會上升,進而推高國內醫療垃圾 12.8 percent. Assuming zero-breakdown, 的產量。(資料來源 :聯合國)。 and each incinerator is running with maximum load at 100% efficiency, 24 hours per day and 365 days per year, the country may only incinerate a total of 18,571 tonnes of clinical waste annually – significantly less than the total amount of waste projected for 2011! 2009 年,不少垃圾處理廠接收的醫療 垃圾已經超出了其設計處理量。Frost & Sullivan 預計 2020 年醫療垃圾總量將達 32,891 噸,年增長率將達 12.8%。假設每 座焚燒爐均以零故障 , 最大效率的狀態滿

Incinerators also cause significant environmental damage. As one of the countries who signed the Stockholm Convention treaty on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), Malaysia agreed to reduce the unintentional release of selected organic pollutants, the growing concern over the environmental toxicity of incinerators gave rise to greater use of greener non-incineration technologies. The new technologies that are being adopted around the world include autoclaving, hydroclaving, microwave sanitization, chemical disinfection and plasma pyrolysis.

焚燒還會造成嚴重的環境污染。作為《關 於持久性有機污染物的斯德哥爾摩公約 JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

and puncture resistant container that allows sharps and small quantity of clinical waste to be mailed to a disposal center via the postal service, may help companies to expand their client base to smaller clinical practice.

Sharps 郵遞處理系統 (www.sharpsinc. com),是將少量的尖銳醫療垃圾裝進一 個防穿透的密封鉛製容器中,利用郵政 服務寄給處理中心,這有助於公司將業 務觸角延伸至規模較小的醫療機構。

(POPs)》的簽署國之一,馬來西亞同意減 少某些有機污染物的非惡意排放。有關焚 燒爐環境毒性的擔憂與日俱增,非焚燒綠 色技術應運而生。目前世界上已被採用的 替代技術有高壓消毒 ,hydroclaving 系統 , 微波消毒 , 化學消毒及等离子熱解。

The World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that incineration may be the interim solution for developing countries where alternative technologies are limited. In the long run, each country should scale-up their adoption of nonincineration technologies as the main method of clinical waste treatment.

世界衛生組織建議焚燒可作為替代技術 條件受限的發展中國家的過渡性方案。但 長期而言,各國應提高非焚燒技術的使用 率,將其作為醫療垃圾的主要處理方式。

The availability of incineration plants in Malaysia may hamper the adoption of alternative technology as a means of waste disposal unless the authorities impose much more stringent policies. Additional challenges such as rising costs of supplies and decreasing efficiency make any new inventions and technologies very attractive to the industry. Examples include:

由於馬來西亞焚燒廠眾多,這或會妨礙 垃圾處理替代技術的推廣,除非當局出台 更為嚴格的政策。供應成本上升 , 效率降 低等問題亦讓該行業對新發明及新技術的 需求顯得尤為迫切。新技術現列舉一二 :

• SmartBins solutions (www.smartbin. com), where the clinical waste bins ‘communicate’ their fill level with the ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

waste management company via mobile phone and automatically have the host server to schedule pick-ups,

SmartBins 解決方案 (www.smartbin. com),醫療垃圾箱透過電話與垃圾處理 公司「溝通」垃圾堆積水平,主伺服器 將自動安排上門收集。

• MediVac (www.medivac.com.au) solutions, where traditional waste treatment process is cut in half with the sterilizing and shredding done on site in healthcare facilities using Envac Stationary Vacuum System, which reduces infection and injury rates among healthcare personnel by cutting down the needs of manual waste handling.

MediVac 解決方案 (www.medivac.com. au),從傳統垃圾處理程序的中間環節入 手,直接在醫療機構以 Envac 固定真空系 統完成消毒粉碎,免去了人工處理垃圾之 役,降低了醫護人員感染受傷的機會。

• Sharps Disposal by Mail System (www.sharpsinc.com), a sealed, leak

• Additionally, companies could adopt waste-to-energy or waste-toother useful materials technology where residues from incineration or other waste treatment methods are converted into either a electricity, or other materials like high performance concrete and helped them to gain extra revenue. 此外,還有一些公司採用垃圾發電 , 垃 圾轉換其他材料的技術,對焚燒或其他 垃圾處理法的殘留加以利用,或用來發 電,或用來轉變為高性能水泥等其他材 料,從而打開了一條創收之路。

Other clinical waste-related businesses like supplies, equipment, replacement parts vendors and equipment service specialists, together with technology and environment consulting companies, healthcare facilities architects and designers and many other indirectly related businesses are expected to grow in tandem with the annual clinical waste generation in the country.

供應 , 裝備 , 備件供應商及設備維護專 家,連同技術和環保諮詢公司,醫療機構 建築師和設計師等其他醫療垃圾相關業務, 以及其他間接相關業務,均將隨國內醫療 垃圾年產量的上升而獲得發展。|AT|

This article was authored by Dr. Pawel Suwinski, Principal Consultant and Nurul Fatiha, Consulting Analyst, Healthcare Practice, Asia Pacif ic, Frost & Sullivan.

本文作者 :Pawel Suwinski 博士(首席 顧問)與 Nurul Fatiha(顧問分析師) (Frost & Sullivan 亞太醫療行業)。

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作者/by Mike Wilson

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

Economy Business


Economy Business

It’s tough being the world’s

Photo from thecarconnection.com

biggest car company, because the higher you ride, the harder you tend to fall. And nobody knows this better than Akio Toyoda, the embattled president of Toyota, who’s been called to account by the US Congress over allegations that his company tried to suppress reports of known safety defects in many of its vehicle ranges. His company’s American sales performance may have taken some damage - but that’s been nothing compared to what the wider stock market

Akio Toyoda

has been doing to Toyota’s shares. The question is, have the shares fallen far enough? And can we expect a rapid resurgence now that the global economy is improving? 如今,全球最大汽車公司四面楚歌,正所 謂走得越快,摔得越疼。對此,沒有人比 困境中的豐田總裁豐田章男體會更深了, 受美國國會傳召,他需要就豐田公司試圖 隱瞞多款車輛存在安全缺陷的指控作出說 明。豐田公司美國銷售業績可能已受到某 種程度的損害 — 但相比豐田股份在廣大 股市所受的損失,這根本不值一提。但問 題是,股價是否已跌落到最低點?全球經 濟正日益改善,我們是否能期望豐田公司 亦可迅速復甦?

Questions, questions. So let’s start with a brief timeline. It was only 37 months ago, in April 2007, that Toyota re-took the title of global volume champion from General Motors, and only 24 months since the company announced a record US$15 billion net profit for the year to March 2008. And just 12 months since

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it shattered that prosperous illusion with a net annual loss of US$4.3 billion, after watching its reputation being trashed by the recall of 1.3 million vehicles over faulty seat belts.

疑問多多。那麼,就從簡單的時間表說 起吧。僅僅在 37 個月以前,即 2007 年 4 月, 豐田從通用手中重新奪回了全球銷量冠軍 的稱號,且距公司宣佈截至 2008 年 3 月止 季度錄得 150 億美元純利,亦僅僅 24 個月 時間。就在 12 個月前,43 億美元的年度 淨虧損使公司的繁榮興旺假像徹底粉碎, 而之前,公司更因 130 萬安全帶故障車輛 的召回而聲名狼藉。

Unfortunately, though, that was just the beginning. By last October, a panic about jamming accelerator pedals and alleged brake failures on several models had prompted the biggest recall in motoring history - amounting to some 8 million Toyota vehicles worldwide, of which 6 million were in the US alone. By January 2010 the company had suspended US sales of eight models after further complaints about brakes, JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Business

On 11th May the company announced that its accounts were moving back into the black with a net profit of 209

billion yen (US$2.4 billion) during the year to March 2010

accelerators, leaky oil pipes and various other matters. And only two months ago, the luxury Lexus GX 460 SUV also went off-road - in the same month that the US government imposed a record US$16.375 million fine on Toyota for failing to inform its regulators in good time of an alleged accelerator problem which, the US National Highway Safety Administration claimed, had been cited in 43 fatal accidents involving 52 deaths.

不幸的是,這才僅僅是個開始。去年 10 月前,因數款車型油門踏板干擾和指稱刹 車故障所引起的恐慌,已導致汽車史上最 大規模的召回 — 全球約 800 萬輛豐田車 被召回,其中單是美國就召回 600 萬輛。 於收到有關刹車 , 加速器 , 漏油管和各種 其他問題的進一步投訴後,公司於 2010 年 1 月前已暫停 8 款車輛在美國的銷售。僅 在兩個月以前,豪華版 Lexus GX 460 SUV 亦遭召回,同一個月內,美國政府就未能 及時通知監管機構指稱的加速器問題,對 豐田處以創記錄的 1,637.5 萬美元罰金, 該項索償由美國全國高速公路交通安全委 員會提出,該委員會舉證稱車輛故障已導 致 43 起致命事故,其中 52 人死亡。

All of this, of course, was happening during a grim period when worldwide car sales were already being pummelled by the worst global economic crisis in more than 30 years. The total financial damage for Toyota’s recalls has been estimated at US$2 billion - of which Toyota says that US$1.1 billion will be for recall costs and another US$900 million will result from lost sales. But some experts still worry that the longterm psychological damage to Toyota’s image is likely to be quite a lot higher.

而所有這些都發生在最嚴峻的時期,此 時全球汽車銷售已受到逾 30 年來最嚴厲全 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

球經濟危機的嚴重打擊。豐田公司財務總 損失預計已達 20 億美元 — 豐田稱,其中 11 億美元是召回成本,另外 9 億美元則是 銷售損失。但一些專家仍擔憂,豐田公司 形象的長期心理損害可能會更大。

Unsurprisingly, Toyota’s share price has taken a battering. From a high of 8,000 yen in early 2007, the stocks ended 2008 around the 3,000 yen level - a fall of more than 60%. And although 2009 saw the company lifted back into the 3,000-4,000 yen range by the generally improving state of market sentiment, it has been range-bound ever since, and it had made no progress at all by mid-May. That was a particular disappointment, given that the S&P 500 had risen by 45% during the same period and even the Nikkei 225 had managed 12%.

不出意外,豐田的股價亦受到沉重打 擊。自 2007 年初的 8,000 日元高點,狂跌 到 2008 年底的 3,000 日元左右-下跌幅度 超過 60%。儘管隨著市場情緒的普遍改善, 2009 年公司股價回升至 3,000-4,000 日元 之間,但自那時起便起伏不定,5 月中旬之 前毫無起色。鑒於同期標準普爾指數已升 約 45%,甚至日經 225 指數亦攀升了 12%, 這尤其令人感到失望。

Signs of an Upturn 好轉跡象 Yet Toyota’s run of bad luck might be about to change. On 11th May the company announced that its accounts were moving back into the black with a net profit of 209 billion yen (US$2.4 billion) during the year to March 2010. That was quite a lot better than the 850 billion yen loss that the company had

been forecasting a year earlier. And it is perhaps no coincidence that the size of the profit almost exactly cancels out the cost of the recalls.

然而,豐田或將否極泰來。5 月 11 日, 公司宣佈重新開始盈利,截至 2010 年 3 月 止年度錄得純利 2,090 億日元(24 億美元), 遠遠超出公司年初預測的虧損 8,500 億日 元。而利潤規模幾乎抵銷召回成本,可能 並非巧合。

Total global sales for Toyota in 2009/2010 were 7.24 million vehicles, a drop of 330,000 (4.8%) from the yearearlier levels. Of this, most of the damage happened in the relatively unimportant European market, where sales were 31.2% down at 858,000 units. North American sales also dipped by 114,000 (5.7%), but that still left 2.1 million successful sales, which was impressive under the


Economy Business

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時至今日,豐田是否可安撫其美國貿易 合作夥伴仍疑問重重。豐田老闆一直試圖 否認其產品技術投訴的有效性,而之後又 最終承認了刹車及加速器故障,這令美國 消費者至今仍忿忿不平。美國國會本身亦 對豐田管理層為追逐利益而忽視消費者安 全的失信行為深感不滿。

circumstances. Japanese sales picked up by 9.2% to reach 2.16 million, and sales to other parts of Asia rose by 7% to 979,000 units. Other markets (Africa, Latin America, Middle East) experienced a 36.4% fall, to just 1.14 million units.

2009/2010 年豐田的全球總銷量為 724 萬 輛,較上年同期減少 330,000 輛 (4.8%)。 其中,大多數損失來自重要性相對較小 的歐洲市場,歐洲銷量下降 31.2%,為 858,000 輛。北美銷量亦減少 114,000 輛 (5.7%),但仍成功銷售了 210 萬輛,在現 時環境下,這一數據令人印象深刻。日本 銷量上升 9.2%,達 216 萬輛,亞洲其他地 區的銷量亦增長 7% 至 979,000 輛。其他市 場(非洲 , 拉美 , 中東)下降 36.4%,僅 售出 114 萬輛。

But the message seems clear that the damage to Toyota’s North American operations has been much more slight than expected. And that’s a picture that’s being corroborated from elsewhere. Worldwide car production grew by a massive 57% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2010, according to recent figures from the Financial Times. Toyota’s year-on-year value sales in April had

been up by an impressive 24%, and its worldwide production was said to more than 80% up on the year. In the US market, the company has now begun a hefty discounting programme which has forced its main US rivals, Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, into a price war. And, crucially, Toyota has also announced a major expansion of its North American production.

該跡象似乎表明,豐田北美業務的損害 遠低於預期,而且這在其他地區亦得到確 證。《金融時報》的近期數據顯示,2010 年第一季全球汽車產量大幅增長 57%(按 年)。豐田 4 月份銷售額按年增長 24%,令 人印象深刻,且據稱本年度其全球產量增 長幅度將超過 80%。在美國市場,該公司 已開始實施幅度較大的優惠計劃,迫使其 主要美國競爭對手福特 , 通用及克萊斯勒 不得不加入價格戰。重要的是,豐田亦已 宣佈一項重大的北美產量拓展計劃。

Dealing with the Aftermath 善後工作 Yet, even today, the question still remains as to whether Toyota can pacify its American trade partners. US customers are still fuming at how Toyota’s bosses tried to deny the validity of the technical complaints against its products for so long before the brake and accelerator failings were finally admitted. And the US Congress itself is still far from satisfied with what it’s been calling the systematic dishonesty of a management that had lost sight of the consumer safety issue in the pursuit of profit.

There may be further trouble in the pipeline. US legislators are known to be worried that the current price war might inflict further damage on America’s own home-grown motor manufacturers - and, at a time when the ruling Democrats are not shy about protesting at allegedly unfair trade practices, they are likely to need reassuring that Toyota is not simply loss-leading its way out of a tight situation at America’s expense. It wouldn’t be very surprising if the company found itself under fire again for a host of other misdeeds, either real or supposed, in the coming year.

更多麻煩可能仍在醞釀中。據悉,美國 立法議員擔心現時的價格戰或會進一步傷 害美國本土汽車製造商,且在執政民主黨 公開表示反對所有指稱不公平貿易慣例之 際,他們或需重新保證豐田蒙受損失 , 擺 脫困境而不應由美國人買單。若來年豐田 公司再度發現因一系列其他過失(真實的 或假定的)而置身於水深火熱之中,根本 不足為奇。

But will this really dent Toyota’s ability to recover in the long term? It seems doubtful. The brake and accelerator problems may have revealed a serious structural shortcoming in the management’s style; but a hundred or so complaints in the US are unlikely to persuade buyers in China, Latin America or the Middle East to switch brands. The sheer scale of the company’s dominance, and the perceived reliability of its products, is likely to win through. Toyota’s shares are looking cheap.

這真的會長期削弱豐田復甦的能力嗎? 似乎令人懷疑。刹車及加速器故障可能揭 示豐田的管理模式存在重大結構缺陷 ;但 美國的上百條投訴不可能說服中國 , 拉美 或中東的買家改買其他品牌。該公司顯赫 的主導地位及其產品被認可的可靠性,可 能會幫助豐田贏得最終的勝利。豐田的股 價似乎過低。|AT|

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26

Information Economy

證券交易所博覽第三部

Know Your Stock Exchanges Part 3 The Hong Kong Stock Exchange

香港交易所

作者/by Bert Olbes

One country, two systems. Hong Kong and Macau are territories under the jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) but run on different economic and political systems — hence there are fundamental differences between Shanghai and Shenzhen’s Stock Exchanges, which are both directly administered by the PRC’s China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and that of Hong Kong’s. The stability and growth of Shanghai and Shenzhen’s Stock Exchanges are not the CSRC’s only expressed objectives, but just as importantly, the protection of the interests of investors is also at the top of its priorities and therefore those of the exchanges it administers. Capitalistic profit-making is not overtly “on the table” of these two main PRC governmentcontrolled stock exchanges. 香港和澳門是中華人民共和國(下文簡稱 「中國」)的領土,但奉行不同於中國的經 濟和政治制度,這就是「一國兩制」。因此, 由中國證券監督管理委員會(中國證監會) 直接領導的上海和深圳交易所,與香港同 行相比亦有本質區別。上海和深圳交易所 的穩定與發展是中國證監會的目標,比這 更重要的是保障投資者利益,這才是中國 證監會及其下屬交易所的首要職責。這兩 家中國的主要交易所均由政府控制,所以 不像資本主義那樣公然追求營利。

Compare the preceding to The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx), where shares of listed companies in Hong Kong ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

are traded. Its holding company is the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKFE), which was formed on March 6, 2000 when the HKFE merged with the alternatively called Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) and with the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company.

限公司,成立於 2000 年 3 月 6 日,由香港 聯合交易所有限公司(SEHK), 香港期貨 交易所有限公司(HKFE)和香港中央結算 有限公司(HKSCC)合併而成。

Conflict of Interest? 利益衝突? The HKFE itself can be described as a 相比之下,作為香港上市公司股票交易 profit-making going concern and is thus 市場的香港交易所(港交所)就截然不同。 resistant to government involvement, 港交所的控股公司是香港交易及結算所有 particularly stake acquisition by the latter.


Economy Information

Photo from www2.2space.net

本目標,唯有回報最大化才是股東的終極 追求。

Ronald Arculli

A case in point occurred in September, 2007, when the Hong Kong government elicited widespread criticism as it increased its stake from 4.41% to 5.88%. It was alleged that the purchase violated the government's stated principle of “big market, small government.” Sitting on the Executive Council and still Chairman of HKEx today is Ronald Arculli. Certain industry analysts expressed uneasiness over what is supposed to be the explicit independence of the “Independent” Chairman Arculli, as it seems that the continued increase in stake by the government is a sign that HKEx is being groomed “for future integration and alliance with mainland exchanges.” The government’s counter-position is that it desires to be a shareholder in order to maintain a positive role in the exchange's growth development. But opposing arguments retort that promoting a stable and efficient marketplace is the diametrical opposite of the most fundamental objective of shareholders who have little else in mind than to maximize returns.

港交所本質上是一個營利組織,所以 抵制政府干預,尤其是被政府收購股權。 2007 年 9 月,香港政府力排眾議,費盡周 折才把所持股權從 4.41% 增加到 5.88%。有 人批評說, 此舉違背了政府奉行的「大市場, 小政府」原則。港交所現任主席是夏佳理, 他亦是香港立法會議員。有業內分析人士 就對此表示不安,擔心「獨立」主席「不 獨立」 ,因為港府不斷增持港交所股權,用 意似在為港交所「有朝一日與中國內地交 易所合而為一」預埋伏筆。政府逆勢而為, 本意是想藉股東角色發揮積極作用,促進 港交所發展,可是反對的聲音卻說,營造 一個穩定而有效率的市場並不是股東的根

Listings and Performance 上市與表現 Despite the existence of such concerns and the intermittent back and forth wranglings, as of the end of the first quarter of 2010, the exchange listed 1,332 companies, up from the 1,241 companies it had listed on December 31, 2007. This indicates successful IPOs, or at least an impressive net increase in the number of companies listed over a solid twoyear (2008 and 2009) period of +6.5% when compared to the 2007 year-end figure. For 2009 alone, this translated into almost US$30 billion generated from Initial Public Offerings, catapulting the exchange to number one in the category last year.

雖然有這樣那樣的擔憂和爭吵,可是到 2010 年一季度末,港交所的上市公司已經 達到 1,332 家,而 2007 年 12 月 31 日為 1,241 家,這說明港交所的首次公開招股 活動(IPO)十分成功,過去兩年(2008 年和 2009 年)上市公司數目比 2007 年底 增加 6.5%,單是 2009 年港交所的 IPO 集 資規模就接近 300 億美元,居全球之冠。

Pundits of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s merits have been advocating that exchange has genuinely become

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London Stock Exchange

competitive against such powerhouses as the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as a preferred exchange for IPOs by foreign companies outside the PRC. A closer examination reveals that the figures do not exactly bear out the supposition, however. Of the 1,332 companies* listed by the HKEx at the end of the first quarter of 2010, only 12 were foreign (up by just one from 11 at the end of 2009). The 12 foreign companies listed represent less than 1% of its total listings. Compare this to LSE’s 601 foreign companies listed out of the 2,770 total listed firms (21.8% of its total listings) and NYSE’s 500 foreign companies listed out of a total

*The Hong Kong Economic Times reported last April 22 that Prudential Plc had achieved Hong Kong stock exchange listing committee in-principle approval to trade its shares on the city’s bourse. Prudential plans to commence Hong Kong trading of its shares in board lots of 500 shares each by mid-May, after technical issues delayed the debut originally intended for May 4, the Chinese-language newspaper pointed out. The approval will allow Prudential to move some of its London-quoted shares to the Hong Kong exchange, it added. Credit Suisse Group AG is sponsoring the listing, which Prudential hopes will help attract Asian investors to a $21-billion rights offering to fund its purchase of American International Assurance (AIA) Group Ltd. in the largest acquisition in insurance history, the HK Economic Times further divulged. In short, there could well be 1,333 companies listed in the HKSE by the time of this edition’s scheduled release on June 1, 2010. *據香港經濟日報4月22日報道,英國保誠集團已獲港交所上市委員會原則上批准在 該所掛牌上市。這家中文報章說,保誠集團的股票原定5月4日上市,但因若干技術 問題耽擱,故推遲到五月中旬開始在港交易,每手買賣單位為500股。報道說,當局 批准保誠從其倫敦上市股份中,撥出一部份到港交所上市。該報又透露,瑞士信貸 集團擔任上市保薦人,保誠希望藉此吸引亞洲投資者參與這次規模達210億美元的 配股活動,募集資金用於收購美國友邦保險公司(AIA),這將是保險業歷史上最 大一筆併購案。因此,待到6月1日本期雜誌發表時,港交所的上市公司數目將達到 1,333家。

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Information

of 2,323 (21.5% of its total listings) at the end of the same period, March 31, 2010.

看好港交所的專家說,面對倫敦交易 所(LSE)和紐約交易所(NYSE)這樣的 龍頭,港交所的競爭力日益增強,正成為 許多外國公司於中國境外首選的 IPO 上市 地點。然而仔細分析,會發現數據未必經 得起推敲。截至 2010 年一季度末,港交所 1,332 家上市公司中*,只有 12 家外資企業 (僅比 2009 年底的 11 家多了 1 家),它們 佔上市公司總數的比例還不到 1%。相比之 下,截止到 2010 年 3 月 31 日,倫敦交易 所 2,770 家上市公司中,有 601 家外國公 司(佔總數的 21.8%),紐約交易所 2,323 家上市公司中,有 500 家外國公司(佔總 數的 21.5%)。

On the other hand, in terms of total new listings/IPO’s regardless of whether foreign or local, according to the World Federation of Exchanges, by the end of the same period, 11 new companies were added to the Hong Kong Stock exchange’s total listings, while the NYSE lost 5 companies listed, from 2,328 (on January 31, 2010) to 2,323 companies (although it did post a net gain of 2 foreign-owned companies). The London Stock Exchange’s total number of listed companies also lost ground during the same elapsed period -- from 2,770 to 2,749 (-8.6%). Included in this was the net loss of foreign-owned companies listed, down to 601 on March 31, 2010 from the 607 listed on January 31, 2010.

從新上市/IPO(不分外國與本土)的 總數比較,據國際證券交易所聯會統計, 在此期間港交所有11家新公司上市,而紐 約交易所則少了五家,上市公司從2,328 家(2010年1月31日),減少到2,323家( 儘管新增兩家外資上市公司)。同期,倫 敦交易所的上市公司也從2,770家,減至 2,749家(減少8.6%),其中外資上市公司 從2010年1月31日的607家,減少到3月31 日的601家。

Meanwhile, back in Hong Kong, the monthly value of shares traded at its exchange between January 1 and March 31, 2010 was volatile. In millions of Hong Kong Dollars (HKD), January’s figure was 1,193,601.5. In February the figure dipped drastically to 703,902.3 for no particularly obvious reason before rebounding to 1,065,135.2 in March for a first quarter total of 2,993,733.4.

再來看香港,從 2010 年 1 月 1 日到 3 月 31 日,港交所每月的股票市值波動劇 烈。以百萬港元為單位,1 月份的數字 是 1,193,601.5,2 月份沒有值得一提的 原因,卻驟然降至 703,902.3,3 月份又 回升到 1,065,135.2,整個一季度達到 2,993,733.4。

Blue Chip Performance 藍籌股表現 On November 24 1969, while Hong Kong was still a British colony and nearly three decades short of reverting to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1997, the Hang Seng Index was established and is maintained, until today, by a subsidiary of Hang Seng Bank. Presently consisting of 44 of the largest companies traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it is the leading index for shares traded on the exchange. It is a capitalization-weighted index, meaning that the largest firms (based on market value) carry the greatest weight in the Hang Seng. This is to be differentiated from a price-weighted index where each constituent makes up a fraction of the index that is proportional to its price –

Hong Kong Stock Exchange Building

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Photo from en.structurae.de

Hang Seng Bank

meaning component or “member” stocks are included in proportion to their quoted prices.

恒生指數誕生於1969年11月24日,那時 香港還是英國殖民地,直到三十年後的 1997年才回歸祖國懷抱。恒生指數由恒生 銀行的子公司編制,一直沿用至今,現有 44支成份股,均為港交所的大型上市公 司,它是港交所股票交易的領先指標。恒 生指數是市值加權指數,公司規模(即市 值)越大,佔指數權重越大。這與價格加 權指數不同,在價格加權指數中,各成份 股所佔的權重,與其價格成正比,換言之 股價高低決定權重。

The index represents 65-70% of the value of all stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and can be further categorized into four subindices: Utilities, Finance, Property and Commerce. The performance of the Index’s blue chip stocks during the first quarter of 2010 can be described as one of growth, closing at 20,121.99 points on January 31, at 20,608.70 on February 28, and at 21,239.35 on March 31 for an average monthly appreciation of more than 2%. At this growth rate, it would


Economy Information

post an annual increase of approximately 25% for the entire 2010 – which would be nothing short of phenomenal. However, as of April 29, 2010, the Hang Seng Index average had retreated to 20,951.50, a drop of just over 1% over the previous month. On that same day, its four sub-indices giving it that average were as follows: HSI – Finance: 31,508.20; HSI – Utilities: 38,996.55; HSI – Properties: 26,128.53; and HSI – Commerce and Industry: 11,541.79

恒生指數代表港交所上市股票總市值 的65-70%,設有公用事業,金融,地產, 工商四個分類指數。2010年一季度,恒 生指數藍籌股表現不俗,1月31日收報 20,121.99點,2月28日20,608.70點,3月 31日21,239.35點,平均每月上漲逾2%。 若能保持這勢頭,2010年全年漲幅可達 25%左右,殊為可觀。然而到4月29日,恒 生指數又回落至20,951.50點,較上月微 跌1%。當日,四個分類指數分別為:金融 分類指數 31,508.20點,公用事業分類指 數38,996.55點,地產分類指數26,128.53 點,工商分類指數11,541.79點。

To put matters into even clearer perspective, since September, 2008, the Hang Seng Index has averaged 17,689.40, with its low being 10,676.29 on October 27, 2008 (at the peak of the global financial crisis) and its high hitting 23,099.57 on November 11, 2009. Extrapolating from its performance in the first quarter of 2010, the index could very well surpass last year’s high and conceivably even breach 24,000.

具體而言,從2008年9月以來,恒生指數 的中間值為17,689.40點,最低值是2008年 10月27日的10,676.29點(全球金融危機 頂峰時期),最高值是2009年11月11日的 23,099.57點。按2010年一季度的走勢推

The Hang Seng Mainland 100 ("HSML100") consists of the 100

largest companies that obtain the vast majority of their sales

revenues

算,恒生指數大有希望超越去年的高位, 甚至突破兩萬四千點。

In alphabetical order, the 44 Blue Chip Stocks of the Hang Seng Index as of May 1, 2010 are contained in the following table:

截至2010年5月1日,恒生指數有44支藍 籌股,按字母順序羅列如下:

Name of Company

公司名稱

ALUMINUM CORP.OF CHINA 'H' BANK OF CHINA 'H' BANK OF COMMS.'H' BANK OF EAST ASIA BOC HONG KONG (HDG.) CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS CHEUNG KONG HOLDINGS CHINA CON.BANK 'H' CHINA LIFE INSURANCE 'H' CHINA MOBILE CHINA MRCH.HDG.INTL. CHINA OS.LD.& INV. CHINA RES.ENTERPRISE CHINA RES.POWER HDG. CHINA RESOURCES LAND CHINA SHENHUA EN.CO.'H' CHINA UNICOM (HONG KONG) CITIC PACIFIC CLP HOLDINGS CNOOC COSCO PACIFIC ESPRIT HOLDINGS FOXCONN INTL.HDG. HANG LUNG PROPERTIES HANG SENG BANK HENDERSON LD.DEV. HONG KONG AND CHINA GAS HONG KONG ELECTRIC HONG KONG EXS. & CLEAR. HSBC HOLDINGS HUTCHISON WHAMPOA INDL.& COML.BK.OF CHINA 'H' LI & FUNG MTR NEW WORLD DEV. PETROCHINA 'H' PING AN INSURANCE 'H' SINO LAND SINOPEC 'H' SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES SWIRE PACIFIC 'A' TENCENT HOLDINGS WHARF HOLDINGS

中國鋁業H股 中國銀行H股 交通銀行H股 東亞銀行 中銀香港 國泰航空 長江實業 建設銀行H股 中國人壽H股 中國移動 招商局國際 中國海外發展 華潤創業 華潤電力 華潤置地 中國神華 中國聯通 中信泰富 中電控股 中國海洋石油 中遠太平洋 思捷環球 富士康國際 恒隆地產 恒生銀行 恒基地產 香港中華煤氣 香港電燈 香港交易所 滙豐控股 和記黃埔 工商銀行H股 利豐 地鐵公司 新世界發展 中國石油H股 中國平安H股 信和置業 中國石化H股 新鴻基地產 太古股份公司A 騰訊控股 九龍倉集團

The Other Hang Sengs 其他恒生系列指數 Considering that stocks in mainland China have rallied more than five-fold in the past two years, with more than 47.5 million trading accounts opening there in the year 2009 alone, and additionally taking into account that China’s CSI 300 Index was also the best performing major index last year as well, readers and prospective investors may be interested to learn more about Hang Seng’s other Indices, particularly because several of them exclusively measure the performance of mainland Chinese-owned

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company stocks that are listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. In other words, due to its high growth performances of late, it’s operative to be able to identify or make the distinction between Mainland Chinese Company stocks being sold in Hong Kong (as in the first 3 designations below) as opposed to stocks of companies that are Hong Kong or foreign-owned:

過去兩年中國內地股市最高上漲五倍 多,僅2009年就新增交易賬戶4,750萬個, 而且中國的滬深300指數亦是去年表現最佳 的主要股指之一。有鑒於此,讀者和準投 資者也許會有興趣瞭解一下恒生系列的其 他指數,尤其是其中幾個全面量度內地公 司在香港股票市場表現的指數。 換言之, 為把握新興的高成長機遇,投資者應能識 別和區分在港上市的內地股票(下述前三 類),以免將其與香港本地股或外資股混 為一談。

The Hang Seng Mainland 100 ("HSML100") consists of the 100 largest companies that obtain the vast majority of their sales revenues (or profits or assets, if more pertinent) from mainland China (including so-called “H” shares, Red Chips (stocks of mainland China companies incorporated outside mainland China and listed in Hong Kong), as well as shares of other Hong Kong-listed Mainland companies.

恒生中國內地 100 指數(HSML100): 由市值最大的 100 家主要營業收入(或盈 利或資產,如適用)來自中國內地的公司 組成,成份股包含 H 股 , 紅籌股(在中國 境外註冊成立並在港上市的中資股票)及 其他香港上市內地公司。

The Hang Seng China-Affiliated Corporations Index covers prices of red chips, the term coined by Hong Kong economist Alex Tang in 1992 to mean shares of businesses that are actually based in mainland China, that

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


30

Information

The Hang Seng REIT Index is a benchmark that tracks the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) listed on the HKEx. An REIT, fundamentally, is a tax designation for a corporation investing in real estate that drastically reduces or completely 恒生香港中資企業指數:反映「紅籌股」 eliminates corporate income taxes. In 的走勢。「紅籌股」一詞由香港經濟學家 return, REITs are required to distribute Alex Tang 於 1992 年首創,指實際上紮根 90% of their income, which otherwise 於中國,並具有中資背景(由中央政府 , would have been taxable, into the hands of 省政府或市政府直接或間接控股)的公司。 its investors. Similar to shares of common 因為紅色象徵中國共產黨和中華人民共和 stock in other firms, publicly held REITs 國,故稱「紅籌股」。 are commonly listed on public stock exchanges. REITs have faced challenges The Hang Seng China Enterprises from both slowing economies and the Index is a free-float, capitalizationrecent global financial crisis, devaluing weighted index comprised of H Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange share values by as much as 50-70% in and included in the Hang Seng Mainland some instances. This propensity may have given REITs particular, although not-tooComposite Index. 恒生中國企業指數:是一個自由流通和市 attractive relevance in recent years. is, businesses that are either directly or indirectly controlled by enterprises owned by the state, provinces or municipalities of mainland China. The word "red" was apparently meant to represent the Chinese Communist Party and the Peoples' Republic of China.

值加權的指數,由在香港交易所上市且包含 恒生房地產基金指數:為在香港交易所 在恒生中國內地綜合指數之內的H股所組成。 上市的房地產投資信託基金(簡稱「房地

The word "red" was apparently meant to represent the Chinese

Communist Party and the Peoples' Republic of China

產基金」)提供一個市場指標。房地產基金 實質上是一種節稅手段,可令從事房地產 投資的企業大幅減少或者完全免除所得稅。 為此,房地產基金須將 90% 原本應予課稅 的收入,分配給投資者。房地產基金由公 眾持有,同其他公司的普通股一樣在證券 交易所公開上市交易。近期環球金融危機 和經濟下滑,給房地產基金帶來艱巨挑戰, 更有甚者下跌幅度高達 50%-70%。這種走 勢可說是近年來房地產基金的真切寫照, 可見其吸引力已大不如前。

The Hang Seng HK 35 ("HSHK35") comprises the 35 largest companies listed in the Hong Kong market which derive the majority of their sales revenue (or profits or assets if more relevant) from areas outside mainland China.

恒生香港 35 指數(HSHK35) :由市值 最大的 35 家在香港市場上市,而其主要營 業收入(或盈利或資產,如適用)來自中 國內地以外地方的公司所組成。

In summary, there can be a considerable measure of attractiveness to investing in stocks of listed companies on the HKEx, albeit with crafty consideration as to which ones to opt for.

總之,衡量香港交易所上市公司的投資 吸引力,有許多指標可循,投資者應周詳 考慮,從中選出最合適者。

Next Issue, “stay tuned” for The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), its S&P 50 Index and what you might want to absorb about them for either investment or learning purposes.

下期文章將介紹澳洲證券交易所(澳交 所)和該所的標普 50 指數等知識,以饗讀 者。|AT|

For any enquiries or comments about this article please send to: feedback@asiantir.com

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Economy Industry

Robust Economic Growth and an Under Penetrated Market Keeps Demand Strong in the

Indonesian Paint & Coatings Market

Robust Economic Growth and an Under Penetrated Market Keeps Demand Strong in the Indonesian Paint & Coatings Market

經濟高速發展及市場滲透率 The Asia paint industry benefits greatly from industrial migration from the West. With mature markets like Japan, South Korea and Australia showing 低推動印尼油氣塗料市場需 minimal growth, focus has now shifted to rapidly developing and emerging The key focus countries in Asia are now India and China due to low 求保持強勁 作者/by Sheilamarkets. Senathirajah cost and sheer size followed by ASEAN countries with high growth potential and low capacity utilization such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.

The Asia paint industry benefits

greatly from industrial migration from the West. With mature markets like Japan, South Korea and Australia showing minimal growth, focus has now shifted to rapidly developing and emerging markets. The key focus countries in Asia are now India and China due to low cost and sheer size followed by ASEAN countries with high growth potential and low capacity utilization such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.

產業的自西向東轉移為亞洲油漆行業迎來 發展契機。由於日本 , 韓國 , 澳洲等成熟 市場增長緩慢,發展重心現已向快速發展 市場及新興市場傾斜。印度與中國以低成 本 , 大市場的優勢成為目前亞洲的主要熱 點市場,東盟國家緊隨其後,得益於越南 , 印尼 , 泰國等國家的巨大發展潛力 , 低產 能利用率。

Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country and its involvement in the paint and coatings industry dates back some 40 years. With its large population and low paint consumption per capita, there is still much room for growth in this country. Over the course of the next few years, Indonesia is forecasted to be one of the key focal high growth markets

Developed Market

South Korea

Rapidly developing markets for paints.

Japan Mature Markets

Australia Robust Economic Growth and an Under Penetrated Market Keeps Demand Strong in the Indonesian Paint & Coatings Market

Low -end Coatings

Vietnam

India

China

High-End Coatings

The Asia paint industry benefits greatly from industrial migration from the Thailand West. With mature markets like Japan, South Korea and Australia showing Indonesia minimal growth, focus has now shifted to rapidly developing and emerging Emerging Markets markets. The key focus countries in Asia are now India and China due to low Source: Frost & Sullivan cost and sheer size followed by ASEAN countries with high growth potential and Underdeveloped low capacity utilization such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country and its involvement 發達市場 in the paint and coatings industry dates back some 40 years. With its large population and low paint consumption per capita, there is still much room for growth in this country. Over the course of the next few日本years, Indonesia is forecasted to be one of the key focal high growth 韓國 markets within the Asia Pacific 成熟市場 region. The largest segment within the industry currently receiving the bulk of the 澳洲 spotlight油漆業的快速發展市場 is the decorative coatings market. 中國 低檔塗料 The paint industry as a whole印度 in Indonesia was valued at $ 高檔塗料 1,024 million in

2008 and is expected to grow 越南 to $1,444 million by 2013, largely attributed to a robust economic growth, an under-penetrated market, as well as a growing 泰國 construction sector. With an印尼 increase in purchasing power and a gradual shift of focus to more functional 新興市場 and higher aesthetic products, there has been a definite boost in the domestic paint industry. Moreover, a mushrooming urban population drives demand for quality products, consequently triggering the demand for 欠发达市场 资料来源 :Frost & Sullivan paints. Paint consumption per capita in Indonesia currently approximates 2.8 kg/person, which is well below the total Asia level at 4-4.5 kg/person. JUNE 2010 country | ASIAN TIGERS REPORT Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous and INVESTOR its involvement in the paint and coatings industry dates back some 40 years. With its large


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Industry

Indonesian Paint Market: Total Paint Market Value Indonesian PaintGrowth Market:(Indonesia), Total Paint 2008 Market Value and Forecast and Forecast Growth (Indonesia), 2008 印尼油漆市場 :2008 年油漆市場總市值及增長預測

within the Asia Pacific region. The largest segment within the industry currently receiving the bulk of the spotlight is the decorative coatings market.

印尼是世界第四人口大國,油漆業的歷 史僅有 40 來年。由於該國人口眾多,縱使 人均油漆消耗量不大,發展空間亦相當可 觀。未來幾年,印尼有望成為亞太地區的 主要高增長熱點市場之一。裝飾漆市場高 度分散,現已引起廣泛關注。

1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0

The paint industry as a whole in Indonesia was valued at $1,024 million in 2008 and is expected to grow to $1,444 million by 2013, largely attributed to a robust economic growth, an underpenetrated market, as well as a growing 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 construction sector. With an increase 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1037.9 2009 1088.6 2010 2011 1302.8 2012 2013 819.9 841.7 968.4 1023.5 1188.7 1443.5 Value ($ Mill) 722.7 in purchasing power and a gradual shift 價值(百萬美元) 841.7 968.4 1023.5 1037.9 1088.6 1188.7 1302.8 1443.5 Value ($ Mill) 722.7 819.9 of focus to more functional and higher Source: Frost & Sullivan aesthetic products, there has been a Source: Frost & Sullivan definite boost in the domestic paint Many paint manufacturing multinational corporations have set up their locally, which further aids the growth of industry. Moreover, a mushrooming urban Many good dealer networks. have set up their paint multinational corporations manufacturing basemanufacturing in Indonesia and source their raw material needs locally, the paint and coatings industry. 在整個印尼油漆市場中,裝飾漆市場市 population drives demand for quality manufacturing base ingrowth Indonesia and source their raw material needs locally, which further aids the of the paint and coatings industry. 值及銷量分別佔 60% 及 79%。這是一個高 不少跨國油漆生產企業已在印尼開設生 products, consequently triggering the which further aids the growth of the paint and coatings industry. 速發展的領域,現已形成五雄稱霸的格局, 產基地,就地採購原材料,這將進一步推 demand for paints. Paint consumption The highly volatile price of raw materials is a primary concern for paint 這五間企業合共佔據了近七成的總市值。 動油漆塗料行業的發展。 per capita in Indonesia currently The highly volatile price of raw materials isescalate, a primary concern forhigher paint manufacturers. When the price of raw materials the resultant 排名前兩位的是立邦和 ICI,它們已在這 The highly volatile price of raw approximates 2.8 kg/person, which is well manufacturers. When the price of raw materials escalate, the resultant higher cost cannot beiscompletely passed on to consumers due to growing competition 個市場打拼 30 餘年,主要生產水基漆,成 materials a primary concern for paint below the total Asia level at 4-4.5 kg/ cost be market. completely passed on to consumers due to growing competition 功秘訣在於品牌知名度高 定價有競爭力 , to manufacturers. WhenAs thea price of raw person. withincannot the paint result, margin squeeze becomes a, key challenge within paint market. a result, margin 市場覆蓋大 squeeze a key challenge to 分銷網絡完善。 materials escalate, theAs resultant higher 2008 年印尼油漆行業總市值為 10.24 億 the overcome for paint manufacturers, particularly for the,becomes smaller local companies. 美元,考慮到國內經濟的帶動 , 市場的低 cost for cannot be manufacturers, completely passed on to Some of the key industry overcome paint particularly for the smaller localtrends companies. 滲透率及建築行業的發展,預計 2013 年將 The consumers due to growing competition within the decorative paint market Decorative paint market makes up 60% and 79% respectively by 增至 14.44 億美元。隨著購買力的上升及 within the paint As market a result, The Decorative paint upin60% and 79% by value and volume ofmarket. the overall paintmakes industry Indonesia. It isrespectively a high growth 消費重點向功能化 , 美觀化產品轉移,國 margin squeeze becomes a key challenge value and volume of is the overall paint in Indonesia. It is a high take growth market segment that dominated by 5industry key competitors, that collectively up 內油漆市場迅猛發展。此外,城市人口的 to overcomethat for paint manufacturers, market is dominated by 5 top key2competitors, collectively up close tosegment 70% of the market value. The players are that Nippon and ICI,take having 飛速增長推動了對高品質產品的需求,進 for the smallervalue. local The top 2 players are Nippon and ICI, having close toparticularly 70% of the market existed in the market for over 30 years. Their focus is in the water base segment 而刺激了油漆需求。印尼人均油漆消耗量 companies.

existed in the market for over 30 years. Their focus is in the water base segment awareness, awareness,

and their原材料價格波折起伏是油漆生產商的頭 key success factors can be attributed to high brand 現為 2.8 千克 / 人,遠低於亞洲的總體水 and their key success factors canand be good attributed high brand competitive pricing, extensive reach, dealer to networks. 平 4-4.5 千克 / 人。 號心病。由於油漆市場競爭日趨激烈,一 competitive pricing, extensive reach, and good dealer networks. 旦原材料價格走高,成本的相應上升並不 Many paint manufacturing 能悉數轉嫁給消費者。因此利潤率收窄成 multinational corporations have set up 為了油漆生產商目前所面臨的最大難題, their manufacturing base in Indonesia 尤其是對不成規模的本土企業而言。 and source their raw material needs The Decorative paint market makes up 60% and 79% respectively by value and volume of the overall paint industry in Indonesia. It is a high growth market segment that is dominated by 5 key competitors that collectively take up close to 70% of the market value. The top 2 players are Nippon and ICI, having existed in the market for over 30 years. Their focus is in the water base segment and their key success factors can be attributed to high brand awareness, competitive pricing, extensive reach, and

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Economy Industry

Indonesian PaintPaint Market: Decorative PaintPaint Market Value Indonesian Market: Decorative MArket Value By Competitor Market Share 2008 2008 By Competitor Market(Indonesia), Share (Indonesia),

OthersOthers 27% 27%

Mowilex Mowilex 4-5% 4-5% Akzo (ICI) Akzo (ICI) 25-26% 25-26%

JotunJotun <2% 2% Danapaints Danapaints 1-2%1-2% Avian 10% Avian 10% Pacific Pacific Paints 5-6% Paints 5-6%

Nippon 26-28% Nippon 26-28% Source: Frost & Sullivan

Some of the key industry trends within the decorative paint market include by paint 印尼油漆市場 :2008 年裝飾漆市場主要品牌市場份額 expansion of output manufacturers, consolidation of smaller players, include expansion of output by paint higher quality and diversification of product functionalities, growing awareness of manufacturers, consolidation of smaller green products and the growth of ‘Point Of Sale Tinting’ (POST).

players, higher quality and diversification 阿克蘇 Mowilex 其他still27%a relatively small (ICI) of product functionalities, growing POST, although currently 4-5% segment, is projected to 25-26% awareness of green products and the witness high growth in the coming years compared to the traditional route of growth of ‘Point Of Sale Tinting’ ready mix. Growth rate of tinting in Indonesia is high, as this is a relatively new (POST).within the decorative paint distribution route. The 佐敦 larger <2% prominent paint manufacturers are already laying market include expansion of output Danapaints their foundations through the addition of tinting machines in the market, in an by paint manufacturers, consolidation 1-2%competition via this channel. POST predominantly effortand to block out future of smaller players, higher quality Avian 10%products. Low tier products are not sold via this applies to premium segment diversification of product functionalities, Pacific 立邦 as and the cost involved is too high. POS products are typically 10% higher in growing awareness of greenroute products Paints 5-6% 26-28% cost than the typical ready mix products. Approximately 20% of sales in the the growth of ‘Point Of Sale Tinting’ (POST). premium category is via POS tinting.

目前裝飾漆市場的主要行業趨勢包括 : 油漆生產商提高產量,小企業遭到兼併, witness high the coming Program 穎的分銷方式,印尼的現場調色業務迅猛 This article was to authored by: growth Sheila in Senathirajah, Manager, Chemicals & Material Asia Pacific, Frostyears & Sullivan. 產品品質提升,產品功能多元化,綠色產 發展。大油漆生產商已經做好佈局,增加 compared to the traditional route 品意識上升,「現場調色」(POST) 服務日 市場的調色機數量,搶佔先機。POST 主 of ready mix. Growth rate of tinting in 漸流行。 Indonesia is high, as this is a relatively new 要走高檔路線,因所涉成本較高,不會在 低檔產品中推廣這種銷售方式。POS 產品 POST, although currently still a distribution route. The larger prominent 成本一般要比傳統預調合產品高 10%。目 relatively small segment, is projected paint manufacturers are already laying 前高檔產品中約有 20% 的銷量來自於 POS their foundations through the addition 調色。 |AT| of tinting machines in the market, in an

effort to block out future competition via this channel. POST predominantly applies to premium segment products. Low tier products are not sold via this route, as the cost involved is too high. POST products are typically 10% higher in cost than the typical ready mix products. Approximately 20% of sales in the premium category are via POST tinting.

POST 雖然目前規模不大,但在未來幾年 定會超過傳統的預調合業務。作為一種新

This article was authored by: Sheila Senathirajah, Program Manager, Chemicals & Material Asia Pacific, Frost & Sullivan.

本文作者 :Sheila Senathirajah(Frost & Sullivan 亚太化工和原材料項目經理)

For any enquiries or comments about this article please send to: feedback@asiantir.com

3

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Economy

Asia’s

Gaming Renaissance 作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

亞洲博彩業復興 A new appetite for leisure and luxury fueled by Asia’s rising wealth continues to lure worldfamous casino brands to the region 亞洲財富新貴的娛樂及奢侈消費需求旺 盛,吸引全球著名賭場品牌注資亞洲

Gaming Renaissance

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When one of Las Vegas’s most

well-known casino magnates publicly announces that the future of his business is in Asia, it feels like the end of an era. 當拉斯維加斯最著名的資本大鱷之一 宣佈亞洲地區未來業務規劃之時,仿佛預 示著一個時代的終結。

Steve Wynn, the billionaire gambling entrepreneur credited with reviving the Las Vegas Strip in the 1990s, announced at the end of April this year in a conference call with investors that he would be moving his company’s headquarters to its new Macau resort development as soon as 2014.

Steve Wynn 是身家億萬的博彩企業家, 上世紀 90 年代對拉斯維加斯大道的復興貢 獻卓著,今年 4 月底,在與投資人召開電 話會議時,他宣佈於 2014 年前將公司總部 遷往澳門的全新娛樂城。

The Bellagio

Considering how closely Wynn is linked with modern Las Vegas developing Strip icons such as The Mirage and The Bellagio - it was a powerful declaration of where he believes the future of his company is. Besides eventually moving headquarters, Wynn declared his executives would be spending much more of their time in the Chinese territory to oversee the expansion of Wynn Macau to include his other resort brand, Encore, and the construction of another casino resort in Macau’s Cotai Strip.

Wynn 與現代拉斯維加斯的發展密不 可分,他成功開發 The Mirage 及 The

The Mirage

Photo from www.lasvegasadvisor.com

Bellagio 等項目,成為拉斯維加斯的標誌 性賭場,此項決定充分表明其公司未來的 發展方向。除搬遷總部外,Wynn 還宣佈, 公司高管將拿出多數時間在中國境內工作, 負責永利澳門酒店以及萬利酒店的業務發 展,並在澳門金光大道新建另一間娛樂城。

Steve Wynn

While Wynn’s move may seem like a provocative announcement, it is a simple acknowledgement of economic reality. Macau long ago overtook Las Vegas as the world’s largest gaming market. The Chinese enclave hit nearly US$7 billion in gaming revenues in 2006 with America’s gambling capital earning half a billion less.

Wynn 的決策看似略過激進,其實是經濟 現實使然。很早之前,澳門已經超過拉斯 維加斯成為全球最大的博彩市場。2006 年, 回歸中國的澳門博彩收入約 70 億美元,超 出拉斯維加斯博彩收入近 5 億美元。

Since then, Macau’s phenomenal expansion has continued unabated. A recent study by Morgan Stanley on the global gaming market forecasts that America’s Sin City will reap US$5.7 billion in gambling revenues this year while Macau will hit almost US$20 billion on the back of 23.3 million visitors.

此後,澳門博彩業一直保持快速增長。 近期,摩根士丹利對全球博彩市場的研究

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Economy

Growth in Macau continues unabated, with the opening of Galaxy Macau and Sites 5&6 of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) estimated to be completed in the first half of 2011

skyline. Marina Bay Sands’ May opening was preceded by Resorts World Sentosa, which opened in February as Singapore’s first casino coupled with Southeast Asia’s first Universal Studios theme park.

不久,憑藉充滿未來派風格的三座塔樓, 海灣金沙酒店在新加坡拔地而起,在全球 最昂貴娛樂場排行榜中名列第二。海灣金 沙酒店 5 月開業之前,聖淘沙名勝世界已 於 2 月開業,成為新加坡首間娛樂城,亦 是東南亞地區首個環球影城主題公園。

Resorts World Sentosa cost almost US$5 billion to construct and will feature 60 restaurants and the world’s largest oceanearium. The Marina Bay Sands on the other hand will have 2,600 hotel rooms, convention facilities capable of hosting 45,000 delegates, and an iconic cantilevered floating garden perched on top of three hotel towers.

The highrise casinos, Wynn and Galaxy, in Macau

報告顯示,「罪惡之城」拉斯維加斯今年博 彩業收入將達 57 億美元,重迎 2330 萬遊 客的澳門將實現 200 億美元收入。

Growth in Macau continues unabated, with the opening of Galaxy Macau and Sites 5&6 of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) estimated to be completed in the first half of 2011. Over the long term, plans by LVS to turn Macau’s Cotai district into the local version of the Las Vegas Strip means further developments adding to the existing Venetian Macau, Four Seasons Macau, City of Dreams and Galaxy World Resort.

隨著銀河度假城及拉斯維加斯金沙集團 第 5,6 期發展項目於 2011 年上半年完工, 澳門博彩業將繼續保持增長。就長期來看, 金沙集團計劃將金光大道打造成澳門版的 拉斯維加斯大道,這意味著除現有的威尼 斯人酒店 , 四季酒店 , 新濠天地及銀河世 界度假村外,還將新增其他發展項目。

Even straight-laced Singapore, light years away from the gaudy signs and seedy reputations of Las Vegas and Macau, is getting in on the act. The Lion City’s government announced their controversial decision to build the euphemistically named “Integrated Resorts” over five years ago, with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong declaring that Singapore needed an “X-Factor” and “buzz” to become a truly global city. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

甚至曾對拉斯維加斯及澳門嗤之以鼻的 新加坡亦一改刻板形象,開始涉足博彩業。 五年前,獅城政府宣佈頗具爭議的決定, 打造「綜合娛樂城」項目,總理李顯龍表示, 新加坡要想成為真正的全球化城市,必須 具備「X 因素」及「轟動效應」。

The result is the US$5.5 billion Marina Bay Sands, the world’s second most expensive casino, proudly adding its three futuristic towers to the Singapore

聖淘沙名勝世界造價近 50 億美元,擁有 60 間餐廳及全球最大的海洋館。海灣金沙 酒店擁有 2,600 間客房,可承辦 45,000 人 參與的大型會議,三座塔樓頂層還有標誌 性的懸浮空中花園。

Macau’s ascent as the world’s top gaming destination, coupled with Singapore’s multi-billion dollar new developments, herald exciting times for the gaming industry in Asia. The foundations for this renaissance were sown by government initiatives combined with a favourable geography that establishes both these cities as


Economy

37

to watch the Formula 1 grand prix or passing by for a business meeting with the island’s array of banks and hedge funds.

新加坡政府啟動綜合娛樂城計劃,鞏固 其市場定位,將新加坡打造成為地區商業 及旅遊樞紐,承辦各類展會,並努力成為 購物勝地。新加坡每年迎來數百萬遊客, 其中包括眾多 F1 錦標賽觀眾,加之新加 坡擁有眾多銀行及對沖基金,還有大量商 務人士赴新加坡參與商業會議,娛樂城有 助於刺激更多消費。

With such a complementary strategy, the new Integrated Resorts are predicted to generate significant revenues for the city-state. Morgan Stanley estimates that the island’s gaming revenues will top US$5 billion by 2012, supported by a “high propensity” towards gambling in the region.

the gaming hubs for their respective regions.

澳門成為全球首選博彩目的地,加之新 加坡斥資數十億美元發展博彩業,充分表 明亞洲的博彩行業已進入蓬勃發展時期。 政府支援加之理想的地理位置為博彩業的 復興奠定堅實基礎,這兩座城市已成為各 自所在地區的博彩樞紐。

From a reputation for smokefilled slot parlors and triad turf wars, the liberalization of Macau’s gaming industry in 2004 brought in Las Vegasstyle attractions including Cirque du Soleil performances, Venetian gondolas and high-end shopping outlets. More importantly, these new developments catered to an increasingly wealthy and affluent Chinese market, responsible for 51% of Macau’s visitors in 2009.

簡陋的老虎機廳及黑幫廝殺的時代已經 一去不返,自 2004 年澳門博彩行業實現自 由化以來,拉斯維加斯式的博彩經營進入 澳門,帶來太陽劇團的表演 , 威尼斯岡多 拉船以及高檔零售店。更為重要的是,全 新發展項目充分迎合中國大陸財富新貴群 體的需求,2009 年,大陸遊客佔澳門全部 遊客的 51%。

With gambling banned in the People’s Republic, Macau’s geographic position adjacent to the heavily populated and relatively wealthy Pearl River Delta region of China has made the territory the leisure and tourism hub of the Greater China market. Macau’s position continues to be strengthened by infrastructure investments to Mainland

China. These include expanded border crossings and ferry terminals, building high-speed railways, and a new bridge cutting travel time between Macau and Hong Kong from 4 hours to 40 minutes.

由於中國大陸禁賭,澳門又毗鄰高人口 密度且經濟相對發達的珠三角地區,使澳 門成為大中華市場的休閒及旅遊樞紐。中 國大陸不斷加大基礎設施投資,亦鞏固澳 門的市場定位。大陸不斷擴建通關設施及 船運碼頭,建設高速鐵路,並興修跨海大橋, 將港澳之間的車程由 4 小時縮短至 40 分鐘。

A similar story is playing out with Singapore. Low gaming penetration in Southeast Asia and India, with more than 40,000 people per gaming position compared to over 300 for the United States, coupled with an aggregate regional GDP of US$2.7 trillion, means that the city-state is perfectly positioned to capture a huge slice of gaming revenues from neighboring countries.

憑藉輔助策略,預計綜合娛樂城將為新 加坡帶巨額收入。摩根士丹利預計,到 2012 年,新加坡的博彩業收入將達到 50 億美元,亞洲地區博彩業繁榮發展的前景 為該預測奠定堅實基礎。

Both Macau and Singapore’s gaming industries depend on the continuing economic growth of their catchment areas. With double digit growth rates forecasted for the giant markets of India and China for the next few years, and high growth rates for the rest of the countries in Southeast Asia, many casino operators continue to be bullish on Asia’s prospects.

澳門及新加坡博彩業的發展對周邊鄰國 經濟的持續增長依賴度較高。未來數年內, 預計印度及中國的巨大市場將保持兩位數 增長,東南亞其他國家亦會保持較高增長

新加坡的發展情況十分類似。東南亞及印 度地區博彩業覆蓋率較低,平均 40,000 多 人擁有一處博彩設施,而美國為 300 多人擁 有一處博彩設施,加之合計地區 GDP 達到 2.7 萬億美元,意味著新加坡佔據有利市場 定位,充分把握獲得巨額博彩收入的良機。

Singapore’s government initiated the Integrated Resorts to complement the country’s position as a regional business and travel hub, staging ground for events, and its reputation as a shopping destination. With millions of visitors every year, Singapore’s casinos will help squeeze more out of tourists visiting

Sheldon Adelson JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

率,眾多娛樂城經營者繼續對亞洲的市場 前景保持樂觀。

Sheldon Adelson, president of Las Vegas Sands, believes that his company’s significant investment in its Singapore development will be recouped in five years and will surpass its counterparts in the United States in generating revenues for LVS. He also adds that Asia could continue to add up to five more Las Vegases to serve the gaming needs of Asians.

拉斯維加斯金沙集團總裁 Sheldon Adelson 認為,公司在新加坡的巨額投資可 在五年內收回,盈利能力將超出美國本土的 娛樂城。他還補充道,新增五個拉斯維加斯 的規模才能滿足亞洲市場的博彩需求。

Attempts are already being made to set up more casinos outside the two existing Asian gaming hubs to build new markets and create new destinations for a region hungry for new leisure experiences.

為滿足亞洲市場對全新娛樂體驗的渴求, 除亞洲現有的兩個博彩樞紐外,全新市場及 目的地的建設正在進行中。

In Vietnam, a group backed by the hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners has received approval to construct the country’s first Las Vegas-style casino resort in a coastal area south of Ho Chi Minh City. The investment group has hired MGM Mirage to operate its planned US$400 million, 1,100-room resort and hired the former president

Attempts are already being made to set up more casinos outside the two existing

Asian gaming hubs to build new

markets and create new destinations for a region hungry for new leisure experiences of MGM Mirage’s global gaming development as its chief executive officer.

在越南,得到對沖基金 Harbinger Capital Partners 支援的投資集團已獲政 府許可,在胡志明市南部海濱地區建造越南 首間拉斯維加斯式的娛樂城酒店。該投資集 團聘請美高梅集團管理這間造價 4 億擁有 1,100 間客房的酒店,並聘請美高梅集團全 球博彩發展業務前總裁擔任行政總裁。

The investment group holds a 50-year investment license from the Vietnamese government and announced a longterm plan for a US$4.2 billion project that will encompass five resorts and two

casinos. Christened the Ho Tram Strip, it will cover 168 kilometers of beachside property along the South China Sea.

該投資集團獲越南政府頒發的 50 年投資 許可,並宣佈長期發展計劃,開發投資高達 42 億的項目,包括 5 間度假酒店及 2 間娛 樂城。該海濱度假村項目竣工後,將沿南中 國海建成 168 公里長的海濱物業。

Over in the Philippines, gambling is already allowed and administered by the Philippine Amusements and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR). Its plans to build an “Entertainment Complex” modeled on Las Vegas facing Manila Bay has attracted three investor groups - SM Group of the Philippines, Genting Group of Malaysia and Aruze Corp. of Japan.

在菲律賓,政府已放開博彩業,由菲律賓 娛樂及博彩公司(PAGCOR)負責管理。菲律 賓計劃仿效拉斯維加斯模式,打造面朝馬尼 拉灣的「娛樂綜合區」 , 已吸引三個投資集團, 分別為菲律賓的 SM Group, 馬來西亞的 Genting Group 以及日本的 Aruze Corp。

The Genting Group has already invested in the Philippines through its Resorts World brand in a casino complex just across from Manila’s new international airport terminal. Thunderbird Resorts, a casino resorts operator with properties in Latin America, also has 2 casino developments that serves suburban markets outside of the Philippine capital and is considering more expansions in that country.

Genting Group 已經透過 Resorts World 品牌在菲律賓投資,該娛樂城綜合項目與馬 尼拉新國際機場僅一街之隔。Thunderbird Resorts 是拉美地區娛樂場酒店營運機構, 亦在菲律賓參與兩個娛樂城項目,主要滿足 菲律賓首都以外郊區市場的需求,該公司正 考慮在菲律賓過大業務規模。

With so many investors entering Asia’s gaming market, the region is well on its way to developing high-class gaming destinations of different brands, shapes and sizes in several countries. Who needs to go to Las Vegas?

隨著如此多投資人進入亞洲博彩市場,該 地區正快速發展成為高水準博彩目的地,覆 蓋多個國家,擁有不同的品牌 , 形象及規模。 誰還要去拉斯維加斯呢? |AT|

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如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010


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Economy

Asia-Pacific's

Competitive Edge

亞太的競爭力 作者/by Jack Dixon

How competitive are Asia-

Pacific economies on the global stage? They are very much so, based on "The Global Competitiveness Report, 20092010" by the World Economic Forum (WEF) – a Geneva-based foundation that for 39 years now has maintained an independent, non-profit, non-political and non-partisan profile. 在世界舞台上,亞太地區各經濟體的競爭 力如何?答案是不容小覷,理由出自世界 經濟論壇(WEF)的「2009-2010 全球競爭 力報告」。WEF 是一家總部設在日內瓦的基 金會組織,它具有獨立性和非營利性,超 脫於政治和任何黨派。

The report found Singapore worthy of third spot, only behind top-ranked Switzerland and the United States (which fell to second place because of its fragile financial markets and unstable macroeconomic position), and that the island-nation performed better than Sweden and Denmark in the top five. Japan improved a notch to eighth overall, with the strongly performing Asian Tiger-economies of Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan listed in the top 20. The People’s Republic of China consolidated its slot in the top 30 as the consistent frontrunner among large developing economies, while fellow BRIC

member-nation India showed creditable improvement.

該報告排名前五位的國家中,瑞士獨佔 鰲頭,美國屈居第二(主要因為其金融市 場動盪和宏觀經濟不穩),島國新加坡力壓 瑞典和丹麥,排名第三。日本前進一位, 排名第八; 「亞洲四小龍」中的香港 , 韓國 , 台灣躋身二十強 ;大型發展中經濟體的領 頭羊中國,在前三十名中佔據一席之地; 「金 磚四國」之一的印度亦有長足進步。

What Competitiveness? 何謂競爭力? The WEF recognizes that the concept of competitiveness is complex, with its various determinants grounded on solid theoretical foundations – specialization and the division of labor from Adam Smith; investment in physical capital and infrastructure from neoclassical economists; and mechanisms such as education and training, technological progress, macroeconomic stability, good governance, the rule of law, transparent and well-functioning institutions, firm sophistication, demand conditions and market size, among many others, from contemporary thought.

WEF 坦承競爭力的概念很複雜,它有許多 決定因素,而且都有堅實的理論基礎,比如 亞當 • 斯密的專業分工論,新古典主義經濟 學的有形資本與基礎設施投資,還有現實的

考量因素, 比如教育和訓練機制 , 技術進步 , 宏觀經濟穩定性 , 良好治理 , 法治社會 , 透 明完善的體制 , 企業成熟度 , 需求狀況 , 市 場規模等等。

However, WEF encapsulates competitiveness in the central postulate that two or more of these determinants occur simultaneously (as borne out by hundreds of econometric studies), a necessary confluence of economic aspects that can provide analytical depth to national competitiveness issues. In 2004, it introduced the Global Competitiveness Index or GCI, formulated by an American economics professor in Columbia University, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, who is also co-author of the report. Simply, the GCI assigns weighted averages to many different determinants to provide a

Xavier Sala-i-Martin

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Economy

measure of competitiveness and an ability to make accurate medium-to-long-term assessments, even with “the data used being subject to time lag” and may “not fully capture economic circumstances at the time of publication.”

WEF 把競爭力歸納為一個中心假設,即 : 這些決定因素中的兩個或多個的組合(已 被大量的計量經濟學研究所證實)。這些經 濟因素的組合提供了深入分析國家競爭力 的必要依據。2004 年,WEF 採用了「全球 競爭力指標」(GCI)。該指標的創造者是美 國哥倫比亞大學經濟學教授澤維爾 • 撒拉 • 馬丁,他亦是這份報告的共同執筆者。

The construction of the GCI is in itself a long and highly technical process but eventually reflects the classification of countries according to their stages of economic development and how they perform against the indicated competitiveness requisites dubbed the "12 Pillars."

簡而言之,GCI 給許多不同的決定因素分 配加權平均值,藉此衡量競爭力,並能作 出準確的中長期評價。儘管「所用的數據 存在時間上的滯後」,可能「無法全面反映 公佈之時的經濟狀況」,但這些缺點瑕不掩 瑜。GCI 的構建本身是一個漫長而高度專 業化的過程,它根據各個國家的經濟發展 階段,及該國在所謂「十二支柱」的競爭 力要素上的表現,對各國加以劃分。

What Stages and Pillars? 階段與支柱 The GCI defines the first economic stage as factor-driven, or those countries with primarily unskilled labor and natural resources, wherein businesses compete based on price and sell basic products or commodities, low wages a mirror of low productivity. To be competitive at this stage depends on pillars 1-4: well-functioning public and private institutions, well-developed infrastructure, a stable macroeconomic framework, and a healthy and literate workforce.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

new and different goods using the most advanced processes, and innovation.

根據 GCI,第一階段為因素驅動階段,處 於此階段的國家主要以非專業技能勞動力 與天然資源等因素指標為競爭基礎,企業 則銷售基本商品,以價格相互競爭,生產 力低,所以工資也低。要在此階段富有競 爭力,需依靠支柱 1-4 :公私體制健全 , 基礎設施完善 , 宏觀經濟穩定 , 及健康而 有文化的勞動力。

第三階段為創新驅動階段,處於此階段 的國家國民收入高,生活水準高,企業競 爭優勢為研發創新與獨特產品。此階段的 競爭力體現在支柱 11「採用最先進工藝 流程生產新穎獨特之產品」和支柱 12「創 新」上。

Countries may move into the second stage, the efficiency-driven development, which is marked by increasing wage levels and requires the propagation of more efficient processes for manufacturing quality products. At this stage, competitiveness should be pursued through 5-10: higher education and training, efficient goods markets, wellfunctioning labor markets, sophisticated financial markets, the ability to harness the benefits of existing technologies, and a large domestic or foreign market or both.

The GCI thus takes into account the development stages by putting higher relative weights to those pillars more relevant for a country given its particular stage of development. A further enhancement provides a smooth transition for countries falling in between stages "by placing increasingly more weight on those areas that are becoming more important for the country’s competitiveness as it develops," with the GCI gradually imposing "penalties" on those countries not preparing for the next stage.

第二階段為效率驅動階段,特點是工資 水平上升,競爭重點為更有效率的生產流 程與提升產品品質。此階段的競爭力通過 支柱 5-10 體現 :高等教育與訓練 , 商品市 場效率 , 勞動市場效率 , 金融市場成熟度 , 發揮現有技術優勢的能力 , 及國內外市場 規模。

各支柱的重要性因各國發展階段不同而 異,因此 GCI 賦予各階段所對應的支柱以 更大的權重。針對處於前後兩個階段過渡 期的國家,GCI「逐步調高隨著該國的發展 而對該國的競爭力愈發重要的那些因素的 權重」,而對沒有準備好進入下一階段的國 家,GCI 會逐步進行「扣分」。

Finally, in the third stage called the innovation-driven development, countries get the ability to sustain higher wages and the resultant rise in living standards when their businesses compete with new and unique products. The factors for competitiveness needed at this stage are pillars 11 and 12: the production of

How Asia-Pacific Fared 亞太地區的表現 From Singapore and Japan – which figured in the top 10 rankings – to the 126th-placing Timor-Leste, Asia-Pacific as a region spanned the entire GCI roster involving studies of 133 economies around


Economy

Singapore remains the highest-ranked country in Asia and is assessed as stronger than in past years despite the economic slump, with its institutions rated as the best in the

world

the world. The region with the largest spread in performances, it accounted for almost two thirds of the world’s population, thus displaying varied competitiveness landscapes with its significant economic, geographical and cultural diversity. The individual performances of notable regional economies follow:

在涵蓋全世界 133 個經濟體的 GCI 評比 中,亞太地區的表現良莠不齊,既有排名 前十的新加坡和日本,亦有第 126 位的東 帝汶。本地區擁有全世界將近三分之二的 人口,由於經濟 , 地理和文化的差異,各 經濟體的競爭力分化明顯。表現出眾的經 濟體有 :

Singapore remains the highest-ranked country in Asia and is assessed as stronger than in past years despite the economic slump, with its institutions rated as the best in the world. It is top of the heap for the efficiency of its goods and labor markets; second for its financial market sophistication; and, fourth for having worldclass infrastructure, leading in the quality of its roads, ports and air transport facilities. Adding value to its competitiveness is an excellent focus on education, which provides highly skilled individuals for the workforce. The report proposes that

Singapore more strongly foster the latest technologies, especially broadband Internet, and the innovative capacity of its companies to further enhance its competitiveness.

新加坡 :蟬聯亞洲國家排名之首,儘管 遭遇經濟寒流,但評分卻比上年更高。新 加坡的體制被評為世界最佳,其商品和勞 動市場效率得分第一,金融市場成熟度第 二,基礎設施第四,其中道路 , 港口和空 運設施的質素居世界前列。新加坡十分重 視教育,因而培養出高度熟練的勞動力, 這為其競爭力加分不少。報告建議新加坡 加大力度培育先進技術,特別是寬頻互聯 網技術,同時培育企業的創新能力,從而 進一步增強新加坡的競爭力。

Japan climbs a notch to eighth overall, keeping its consistent performance compared to the prior year and in the face of other top-10 countries weakening. While its overall competitive performance is being adversely affected by macroeconomic weaknesses – high budget deficits resulting in the highest public debt levels in the world – it ranks first in business sophistication and fourth in business innovation, showing “a capacity for innovation that is second to none” and backed up by a ready supply of scientists and engineers as well as high company spending on research and development.

日本 :上升一位至第八。除日本外,前 十名中其他國家的表現均有退步,惟獨日 本和上年相比起伏不大。雖然日本的整體 競爭力被低迷的宏觀經濟所削弱(巨額預 算赤字導致日本的公共債務水平居全球之

首),但是日本企業的成熟度傲視群雄,企 業創新排名第四,依靠充足的科研人員和 工程師,以及企業不惜重金開展研發,日 本企業「在創新能力方面無出其右者」。

Hong Kong keeps its 11th spot with top-10 performances in five of the 12 GCI pillars, offering the world one of the most business-friendly environments – its financial markets remaining one of the world’s best and constantly attracting

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both individual and institutional investors; markedly improved infrastructure, which is now second only to Germany; quality public institutions; and, government efficiency.

香港:保持第 11 位。在 12 個 GCI 支柱中, 香港有 5 個支柱躋身前十。香港擁有世界 最佳的營商環境之一,金融市場為世界領 先,能夠不斷吸引個人和機構投資者 ;基 礎設施顯著改善,現排名僅次於德國 ;公 共機構質素高,政府效率佳。

Which Ones in Top 20? 排名前二十的亞太經濟體 Taiwan, which the GCI framework upgraded to having entered the third and most advanced stage of development, leaps five places up to 12th slot on account of its outstanding capacity to innovate, and small improvements in the areas of institutions, infrastructure and education. However, the report indicated a general weakening in its macroeconomic situation: rises in inflation, interest rate spreads and public debt, with the government incurring a small budget deficit. Despite this, the report prognosticates an even brighter competitiveness landscape in the coming years if Taiwan is able to secure its macroeconomic fundamentals and to prevail over its two weakest spots – institutional framework and the efficiency of its financial market.

台灣 :根據 GCI 的標準,台灣已進入第 三個也是最先進的發展階段。憑藉卓越的 創新能力,以及制度 , 基建和教育領域的 一定進步,台灣的排名前進五位,達到 12 位。但是報告指出,台灣的宏觀經濟呈現 整體惡化的趨勢 :通脹加劇,利率上升, 公共債務纏身,政府已有小幅預算赤字。 儘管如此,報告稱未來幾年假如台灣的宏 觀經濟基本面得以穩固,並且彌補其最重 要的兩個「軟肋」—制度框架和金融市場 效率,那麼台灣的競爭力前景將會更加光 明。

Australia jumps three up to 15th rank overall with significant improvement in

Taiwan

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Economy

macroeconomic environment: a balanced budget and a reduction in public debt to 14 percent of GDP, the second lowest among the 30 high-income economies comprising the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development or OECD. It has also improved its profiles in the financial markets, the trustworthiness and confidence in its banking system, the efficiency of its goods markets, the flexibility of its labor markets, and excellent public and private institutions. The report recommends that further progress in its competitiveness can be attained through improvements in business sophistication, the strengthening of its innovation capacity, and the upgrade of infrastructure facilities, particularly ports – the key in dealing with the economy’s large land mass, remoteness and trade thrust as a leading commodity exporter globally.

Despite these, it continues to enjoy a number of strengths that enable it to generate high productivity levels, specifically its world-class infrastructure, strong macroeconomic stability, an excellent higher educational system, and its position as one of the world’s powerhouses in innovation.

韓國 :下跌六位至 19,主要是三方面惡 化 :勞動市場靈活性(招工難,裁員難, 勞資關係差), 金融市場尤其是銀行業不 健全 , 制度缺陷(政府聲望差 , 政客失信 於民,官僚作風濃厚)。韓國的優勢是生 產力高,基礎設施世界一流,宏觀經濟穩 定,高等教育體系發達,並且是全球的創 新中心之一。

New Zealand moves four steps up to round out the top 20. It is a consistent performer that either maintains or improves its rankings in at least 85 of the 113 GCI indicators, notably in its topnotch performance in private institutions (first in corporate ethics, 澳洲 :上升三位至 15,主要歸功於宏觀 經濟的顯著改善 :預算平衡,公共赤字削 the strength of auditing standards and 減至 GDP 的 14%,是經濟合作與發展組織 protection of shareholders; and second (OECD)30 個高收入經濟體中第二低的水平。 in the efficiency of corporate boards), in 在金融市場 , 銀行體系可信賴度和信心 , public institutions (only behind Singapore 商品市場效率 , 勞動市場靈活性,以及公 and three Nordic countries), and minimal 私制度方面,均有改善。報告建議澳洲通 incidence of corruption. It provides 過增強企業成熟度 , 培養創新能力及提升 基礎設施尤其是港口(這是釋放澳洲廣袤 內陸的潛力和發揮貿易優勢,鞏固世界商 品出口大國地位的關鍵),以進一步加強競 爭力。

South Korea stumbles six rungs down to 19th slot, reeling from deteriorations in three categories: labor market flexibility (difficulty of hiring and firing employees, and the poor quality of employer-worker relations), the perceived unsoundness of its financial market, particularly the banking sector; and, the quality of its institutions (dissatisfaction with government, low level of trust in politicians and policymaking and bureaucratic red tape). ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

New Zealand

an environment adjudged “extremely conducive to business,” buoyed up by efficient goods and labor markets, and by its sound financial system that ranks third in the world. But to improve competitive standing into the future, the report advises it must improve its infrastructure – the country’s lowest rank for any of the 12 pillars, after market size – to boost investment in infrastructure projects and incentives for reinforcing innovation capacity.

新西蘭 :上升四位,晉身前 20。在 GCI 的 113 項指標中,新西蘭有 85 個指標的得 分保持不變或提升,其中最令人稱道的是 民營企業(企業道德 , 審計準則的效力和 股東保護均排名第一), 政府機構(僅落 後於新加坡和北歐三國)和廉潔。新西蘭 的營商環境被評為「十分有利於營商」,這 歸於其高效率的商品和勞動市場,以及健 全的金融體系(排名世界第三)。報告建議 說,若要增強競爭力,新西蘭必須改善基 礎設施(這是該國的 12 個支柱中得分最低 的一項,其次是市場規模),促進基建項目 投資,並鼓勵培養創新能力。

What Others in Top 50? 排名前五十的亞太經濟體 Malaysia slides three rungs down to 24th position, having languished since 2007 in a much-poorer assessment of its institutional framework: security and the potential for terrorism and crime; and, a budget-deficit blowout to nearly five 5 percent of GDP. But it remains the most competitive Stage 2 (efficiency-driven) country, highlighting strong performances in factors at the top end of the value chain – business sophistication and innovation. The report indicates that it needs to improve both the quantity and quality of higher education and technological readiness to pave the way for its conversion into a knowledgebased, innovation-driven economy and maintain its competitive edge.

馬來西亞 :下跌三位至 24,延續 2007 年 以來的低迷表現,主要是制度框架得分不 高 :治安不靖,恐怖主義和犯罪威脅,預 算赤字達到 GDP 的將近 5%。但馬來西亞仍 是第二階段(效率驅動)國家中最具競爭 力的,在企業成熟度和創新這些位於價值 鏈頂端的項目上均有不俗實力。報告指出, 馬來西亞需改善高等教育和技術整備水平, 既要重「質」亦要重「量」,方能保持自身 競爭優勢,為成為一個知識型和創新驅動 的經濟體鋪平道路。


Economy

Mainland China edges up one position to tighten its grip on a top 30 ranking. Now at 29th berth, its consolidated overall GCI ranking have relied heavily on combined strengths in a relatively sophisticated business environment, its capacity to innovate, and an enviable fiscal situation that enables government-led investments in infrastructure and the prosecution of much-needed economic reforms. Its shortcomings, as the report points out, are in a number of efficiency-enabling factors, particularly financial market sophistication, technological readiness, higher education, and a relatively rigid labor market.

程度極低,並且在高等教育 , 技術整備 , 企業成熟度 , 金融市場和創新方面,還有 許多不完善之處。

Thailand continues bundling out of the top 30 for the second year in a row, dropping to 36th place. The competitiveness issues of particular concern to the business community are wide-ranging: protracted political instability, security, deterioration in the quality of public institutions, insufficient protection of property rights, major public health issues, and sluggish technological readiness. However, the report credits Thailand in the positive aspects of macroeconomic situation, which improved 中國 :上升一位,躋身前 30,現排名 29。中國的 GCI 排名主要依靠自身的綜合 slightly, and the efficiency of its labor 優勢,即相對成熟的營商環境,創新能力, market alongside the size of its domestic 以及令人羡慕的財政狀況,使政府能夠主 and foreign markets that are sources of 導基建投資,及實施亟需的經濟改革。報 economies of scale. 告稱,中國的劣勢體現在效率上,如金融 市場成熟度 , 技術整備 , 高等教育和相對 僵硬的勞動市場。

Brunei shoots up seven places to 32nd spot, with good performances in key categories, such as institutions, infrastructure, health and primary education, and macroeconomic stability – which it topped due to its huge budget surplus amounting to a third of its GDP, high savings, and controlled inflation at 2.7 percent. Yet, the report states that the “overall environment is generally not conducive to doing business” because of an inefficient goods market, a disturbingly low level of competition, and major concerns in higher education, technological readiness, business sophistication, financial markets and innovation.

文萊:上升七位至 32,得到好評的指標有: 體制 , 基礎設施 , 衛生 , 初等教育,以及 宏觀經濟穩定性——此項得到最高分,得 益於文萊的高額預算盈餘(相當於 GDP 的 三分之一),高額儲蓄,以及通脹水平控制 在 2.7%。但是報告也指出「整體環境並不 太有利於營商」,因為商品市場低效,競爭

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economies), fairly well-functioning institutions, bustling financial markets, and a sound banking sector supported by a vast domestic market. However, it underperforms in a few basic determinants of competitiveness, such as health and primary education, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, penetration rates in telecommunications, and inefficiencies in the labor market. The deep chasm between the rich and the poor poses a deeply seated socioeconomic challenge.

印度 :上升一位至 49。印度的競爭力包 括良好的企業成熟度和創新(甚至領先於 一些發達經濟體), 體制運轉良好 , 金融 市場活躍 , 銀行體系健全,並且擁有巨大 的國內市場。但是,印度在幾個指標上落 後,如衛生和初等教育 , 宏觀經濟穩定性 , 基礎設施 , 電訊普及率,以及勞動市場效 率低下,另外貧富差距懸殊給印度帶來了 艱巨的社會經濟挑戰。

In conclusion, the importance of the WEF’s global competitiveness report is best summed up by the very economist behind the GIC, Prof. Sala-i-Martin, who wrote: “Amid the present crisis, it is critical that policy-makers not lose sight of long-term competitiveness fundamentals amid short-term urgencies. 泰國 :連續兩年未能入圍前 30,排名跌 Competitive economies are those 至 36。令商界擔心影響競爭力的問題很多, that have in place factors driving the 包括 :政治動盪久拖不決,治安不靖,政 productivity enhancements on which 府機構質素惡化,財產權保障不力,嚴重 their present and future prosperity is built. 的公共衛生問題,以及技術整備滯後。報 A competitiveness-supporting economic 告說,泰國的正面因素是宏觀經濟有所好 environment can help national economies 轉 , 勞動市場效率,以及國內外市場規模 to weather business cycle downturns and (這是規模經濟的源頭)。 ensure that the mechanisms enabling India inches up one slot to 49th, its solid economic performance going into competitiveness anchored on outstanding the future are in place.” performances in the most complex 在 WEF 全球競爭力報告的結尾,經濟學 家撒拉 • 馬丁教授總結了這份報告的重要 areas of business sophistication and 性,他寫道 : 「面對當前這場危機,決策者 innovation (ahead of several advanced 們千萬不能因為眼前之急而忽視了長遠的 競爭力根基。要重視那些能夠提升生產力 的因素,在此基礎上構建現在和未來的經 濟繁榮,這樣的經濟體才是富有競爭力。 一個利於培養競爭力的經濟環境,能夠幫 助國家經濟抵禦商業週期的下滑,從而形 成適當的機制,確保將來經濟穩步發展。」

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如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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‘Staying Connected’:

Increasing Role of Solar Power in Telecom Applications in Southeast Asia

「保持通話」 :太陽能在東南亞電 訊應用上的擴展

作者/by Suchitra Sriram

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010


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Southeast Asian countries

are predominantly an off-grid market for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Government funded remote and rural electrification projects have been carried out through the widespread use of solar PV systems for homes, for driving water pumps, battery charging and also used as mini-grids. However, its use in telecom application has been an underdog. 東南亞國家是太陽能光伏發電的一個非常 可觀的離網市場。政府出資興建的偏遠鄉 村電氣化項目均廣泛使用太陽能光伏系統, 包括家庭用電,水泵供電,電池充電,甚 至還自成一個小網絡,然而其在電訊方面 的應用尚不多見。

In Southeast Asia, severe competition in the telecom sector have forced key players to look beyond the cities and increase customer base by penetrating into newer markets including rural and far-off areas. Deployment of base stations in such areas often throws up `power´challenges as these areas are either not covered by the utility grid or existing power supply is intermittent and unreliable. The number of off-grid base stations is projected to increase at nearly 30.0 percent annually.

東南亞電訊行業競爭激烈,業界大型企 業不得不走出城市,向農村地區 , 偏遠地 區開疆拓土。然而這些地區的基站安裝通 常會遭遇「電力」難題,因為這些地區要 不就是沒有覆蓋電網,要不就是現有電力 供應時斷時續無以為靠。預計網外基站數 量將以每年近 30.0% 的速度增加。

telephony. Rising costs of diesel, theft of diesel fuel and regular maintenance of diesel generator sets in remote areas increases the operational overheads incurred by the telecom companies especially in countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Hence, many telecom companies are evaluating the option of augmenting diesel generator sets with environment friendly solar PV systems.

過去亞太地區的電訊公司一直都是依靠 柴油發電機來為微波轉發站 , 流動基站 , 衛星通信系統與關口以及鄉村通訊提供電 力。然而柴油價格上漲 , 柴油被盜以及偏 遠地區柴油發電機的定期維護無形中推高

了電訊公司的營運開支,這種情況在印尼 , 菲律賓 , 泰國 , 越南等國尤為明顯。因此, 許多電訊公司都開始考慮以環保太陽能光 伏發電系統來替代柴油發電機。

Recently, the GSM Association consisting of 750 mobile phone operators world-wide announced its goal to power nearly 118,000 base stations located in developing countries which lacks reliable supply of electricity by green energy technologies – wind, solar or hybrid systems by 2012. The major driving factor for these telecom companies to adopt green energy technologies is to find alternative ways to reduce operational costs arising from refueling of diesel

Telecom companies in the APAC region have conventionally relied upon diesel fired generator sets to power their microwave repeater stations, mobile base stations, VSATs & gateways, and rural

JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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generator sets and undertaking regular maintenance of the equipment installed in remote locations. Commitment to protect the environment by reducing carbon emissions from diesel generator sets acts only as a secondary driver.

由全球 750 間流動電話運營商組成的 GSM 協會日前宣佈,計劃在 2012 年之前完成對 發展中國家近 118,000 個無可靠電力供應 基站的綠色能源技術改造,所採用的綠色 能源包括風能 , 太陽能或混合動力系統。 這些電訊公司之所以如此迫切的引入綠色 能源技術,主要是想另闢蹊徑降低柴油發 電機燃料補充 , 偏遠地區設施定期維護招 致的營運成本,而保護環境 , 減少柴油發 電機碳排放倒在其次。

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has taken the lead in adopting solar PV systems on a large-scale basis. In 2005, there were around 60 PV powered telecommunication systems in the

country; the number is expected to considerably increase to nearly 40,000 PV powered telecommunication systems by early 2010 mainly to be installed in the rural areas. Besides Indonesia, telecom operators in Malaysia and Singapore have been fairly successful in embracing solar PV systems for their base stations. However, the proportion of such installations is extremely low when compared to the total number of base stations in the region. This opens up a plethora of new market opportunities for solar PV system integrators and installers in the region A few recent industry happenings are given below:

印尼當屬東南亞地區太陽能光伏發電應 用最為廣泛的國家。2005 年,印尼已有近 60 個光伏發電電訊系統,預計到 2010 年 初這個數字將飆升至 40,000,這些系統主 要是安裝在農村地區。除印尼之外,馬來 西亞和新加坡的電訊營運商在基站太陽能 光伏系統改造方面也成績斐然。然而安裝 比例仍然相當低,尤其是與區內的基站總 數相比,更顯得微不足道。這無疑為區內 的太陽能光伏系統整合商和安裝商打開了 一片廣袤天地。該行業的最新動態如下 :

• Indonesia’s largest mobile services operator, PT Telkomsel has installed 12 off-grid PV systems with a cumulative capacity of 146 kWp in remote areas of Sumatra, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya.

印尼最大的流動服務運營商 PT Telkomsel 在蘇門答臘 , 蘇拉威西島和伊 裏安查亞的偏遠地區安裝了 12 個網外光 伏系統,累計容量為 146 千峰瓦。

• Starhub of Singapore deployed the country’s first solar powered mobile base station on its office roof-top at Ubi with 20 solar panels on a trial basis. Moreover, the company has plans to adopt solar power in other stations as well in the near future. 新加坡 Starhub 公司在烏美辦事處頂樓 安裝了國內首個太陽能流動基站,該基 站共有 20 塊太陽能電板,目前尚處於試 運轉階段。公司還計劃於近期完成其他 基站的太陽能改造。

• Telekom Malaysia installed solar PV systems in eight of its base station that are located on the country’s national highway. 大馬電信為國道上的八個基站安裝了太 陽能光伏發電系統 。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has taken the lead in adopting solar PV systems on a large-scale basis Solar PV system integrators and installers in the region can expand their off-grid market portfolio from traditional rural electrification projects tendered by the government and include commercially driven projects from the telecom companies. With solar panel prices coming down sharply, more telecom operators would consider the option of powering their base stations through solar PV systems especially that are located in the remote and rural areas. Further, as telecom companies have expressed interest towards adopting green energy technologies in their operations and are volunteering to reduce carbon emissions, it provides immense growth opportunities for solar PV system integrators in the region to collaborate with such companies and harness the untapped potential.

除政府招標的傳統農村電氣化項目之外, 區內太陽能光伏發電系統整合商及安裝商 的離網市場還可向電訊公司的商業項目延 伸。隨著太陽能電板價格大幅下滑,越來 越多的電訊運營商將會考慮用太陽能光伏 系統為基站發電,尤其是對那些位於偏遠 地區和農村地區的基站而言。此外,電訊 企業還表現出對採用綠色能源技術的熱情, 紛紛承諾將減少碳排放。面對如此巨大商 機,區內的太陽能光伏系統整合商應積極 尋求與電訊企業的合作,充份利用先發優 勢。|AT|

This article was authored by Suchitra Sriram, Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific Energy Practice

本文作者 :Suchitra Sriram(亚太能源 技術行業分析師)

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It happened so fast, it left many

作者/by Kelvin Ng

heads spinning. It happened so fast that most of the planet may not have even noticed. Like the proverbial speck in the rear view mirror of a car on the speed-limit-free German Autobahn, the speck roared by so quickly leaving mouths agape in its wake. Undoubtedly, that would have to be the most accurate description as to what has happened over the past decade to the world’s automobile industry. What has long been the domain and cornerstone of the three leading countries – the United States, Japan and Germany – economic strengths and bragging rights over the past thirty, forty or fifty years no longer exists. There is a new guy on the block and he has just began to flex his muscles… we are talking about China of course, and more particularly, about China’s automobile production and market. 一切來得太快,令人目不暇接,幾乎還沒 回過神來,它便撲面而至。就像奔馳在不 限速的德國高速公路上,剛才還在車子後 視鏡裏看到的一個小黑點,轉瞬間便從你 身邊呼嘯而過,在它一騎絕塵的身後,是 一張張驚訝的表情,這就是過去十年世界 汽車業的真實寫照。美日德—三十 , 四十 乃至五十年來獨領風騷的三個國家,他們 賴以稱霸世界的經濟實力,以及呼風喚雨 的本事,如今已是昨日黃花。一個新的巨 人正在崛起,向世人展示它的力量 ...這便 是中國,而尤其令人讚歎的,當屬中國的 汽車產業與市場。

Imagine that China’s auto sales in 2002 only reached the one million mark and cars manufactured just over the two million mark in the same year. What has occurred over the past eight to ten years is beyond comprehension. Spurred by double digit economic growth annually over the past years and the single minded fiscally disciplined guidance of China’s central government in addition to the unfortunate worldwide economic crunch of 2008 and 2009 which had an adverse dampening effect on the U.S., Japanese and German auto industry, China’s automobile industry has taken the lead on all fronts. In 2009, China became the world’s largest car manufacturer with a total of 13.79 million units produced surpassing Japan by a substantial margin. Likewise, China, in the same year, JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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surpassed the United States market to become the world’s largest automobile market with a record 13.9 million vehicles sold as compared to the 10.4 million vehicles sold in the United States. What is even more amazing is that China had previously targeted sales of “only” 10 million vehicles for 2009… all bets are off now as to where the Chinese automobile industry is headed. From China’s 2008 sales of 9.4 million cars to 13.9 million in 2009, an increase of over 4 million units or approximately 50% increase in sales in one year is truly phenomenal! The sky’s the limit so to speak considering that China’s economic growth is projected to grow continuously up until 2030 or beyond. Couple that with the fact of China’s largest billion plus population that has only a 50 cars to every 1,000 persons car ratio as compared to the more mature U.S., Japanese and European markets where almost one in every two persons has a car then the potential of China’s market just really jumps at you. And certainly, all car manufacturers around the planet have long cast moist eyes on the Chinese auto market with some shrewdly casting their claims much earlier like General Motors of the U. S. and Volkswagen of Germany who have long established joint ventures with one of China’s larger state run automobile companies – Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp or SAIC.

2002 年,中國的汽車銷量和產量剛剛 達到一百萬和兩百萬大關,然而接下來八 到十年所發生的事情,令人不可思議。由 於多年來中國經濟連續保持高增長,中央 政府不遺餘力從財政上扶持,偏巧又趕上 2008 年和 2009 年全球經濟危機重創美日 德的汽車產業,於是,中國汽車業趁勢脫 穎而出。2009 年,中國汽車產量 1,379 萬 輛,把日本遠遠甩在身後,一躍成為世界 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010

最大汽車生產國。同年,中國超越美國成 為世界最大汽車市場,汽車銷量達到創紀 錄的 1,390 萬輛,而美國則為 1,040 萬輛。 令人驚歎的是,當初中國給 2009 年定下 的銷售目標「只有」1,000 萬輛。可以說, 中國汽車業的前進速度出乎所有人預料。 從 2008 年的 940 萬輛,到 2009 年的 1,390 萬輛,僅僅一年間,中國的汽車銷量就增 加 400 多萬輛,升幅近五成,這不能不說 是個奇跡。中國的經濟高增長可望持續到 2030 年甚至更久,汽車產業的前途不可限 量。另外,中國有 13 億的龐大人口,但現 在每千人僅擁有 50 輛汽車,遠低於幾乎每 兩人就有一輛車的美 , 日 , 歐等成熟市場, 所以中國汽車市場的潛力不言而喻。長久 以來,中國汽車市場吸引了全世界汽車製 造商的目光,更有美國通用 , 德國大眾等 精明者捷足先登,早早佈局,分別與中國 的大型國有汽車製造企業如上海汽車工業 集團(上汽集團)等組建合資公司。

And jump into the fray they did over the past few years. China’s young market’s top selling brands are of course the “usual suspects” as in Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota, Honda and Nissan all who have joint venture tie-ups with Chinese state run companies. And they will have to fight to stay there because as of the end of 2009, China’s automobile market had a total of 52 foreign and domestic carmakers competing for a slice of the auto market pie. The United States, long the largest

China, in the same year, surpassed the United States market to become the world’s largest automobile market and most sought after market has only 15 carmakers. The carmakers melee in China has been compounded by not only all the foreign entries but the spectacular surge of extremely aggressive local Chinese carmakers like Chery Automobile Co., Geely Automobile Holdings and BYD Auto Co.

近年來的競爭日益激烈。在年輕的中國 市場,大眾 , 現代 , 豐田 , 本田和日產無 疑是暢銷品牌,他們的合資方都是中國國 有汽車企業,但他們必須全力以赴才不致 被淘汰出局,因為截止到 2009 年末,中國 已有 52 家外國和本土汽車企業來瓜分汽車 市場這塊蛋糕。而長久以來一直佔據最大 和最熱門市場頭銜的美國車市,才有 15 家 汽車製造商而已。中國汽車市場的爭奪戰, 參戰的不僅是外國品牌,還有咄咄逼人的 本土品牌,比如奇瑞 , 吉利和比亞迪。


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economic crunch has seen to that. All the world’s top auto makers need China. They need to be part of the Chinese juggernaut to boost their own sluggish domestic and global sales.

對世界而言,中國汽車產業的崛起勢不 可擋,這在 2008 年和 2009 年的全球經濟 危機中得到體現。全世界的頂級汽車製造 商都離不開中國,當他們深陷國內外銷售 低迷的泥潭,中國就成了他們最後的王牌。

BEIJING - MAY 2: A Jac Plug-in Hybrid car is on display at the 2010 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition (Auto China 2010) on May 2, 2010 in Beijing, China.

Rest assured though that there isa method to all this madness in the form of the financially shrewd and strategically astute central government of China whose wise guidance of the nation’s economy over the 2008-2009 world economic crunch has placed China’s automobile industry comfortably in the driver’s seat. The Chinese government’s discerning push with monetary subsidies, incentives and tax cuts into the direction of smaller and greener cars made in China is clever but possibly challenging considering that about 85% of the market is still held by foreign carmakers as of end 2009. Having said that, who would bet against that objective now? It is what many of the other auto industries had failed to envision and implement over the past decades leading to several of the problems they are experiencing now. China likewise plans to consolidate all the existing carmakers into ten groups for better control. And while most of the 13.79 vehicles manufactured in China were sold in China, (only 369,600 were exported) the future push and vision is for fast growth in the export market. Given the spectacular success of China’s automobile industry over the past few years, no one is about to scoff or ignore China’s intention to compete in the export market as well. Their jump into the green automobile revolution has to be taken seriously as it is highly motivated by government support in the forms of large monetary subsidies and incentives.

In fact, the Chinese government has a plan for China to become one of the leading manufacturers of hybrid and electric automobiles by the year 2012. They have logically concluded that the green direction is the only future for China to remain a global player and leader in the automobile industry while cleaning their environment and saving energy as well.

2008 年和 2009 年世界經濟危機之際,中 國政府審時度勢,高瞻遠矚,領導國家經濟 走出危機,這也令汽車產業獲益匪淺。政府 通過財政補貼 , 政策鼓勵和減稅等手段,促 進低排量和環保汽車的生產,此舉固有其 高明之處,但也難免遇到挑戰,因為截至 2009 年末,國內汽車市場仍有 85% 的份額 把持在外國汽車製造商手中。但是從過往來 看,這個目標未必遙不可及。過去十年一直 困擾汽車產業的問題,形成了現在的困局。 為了加強治理,中國打算把現有的汽車製造 商整合為十個集團。在中國生產的 1,379 萬 輛汽車中, 絕大多數都是在中國市場銷售(出 口僅 369,600 輛) ,未來的目標是加快培育 出口市場。面對近年來中國汽車產業的巨大 成功,沒有人會輕視或漠視中國參與出口競 爭的決心。在政府的大力財政補貼和政策鼓 勵下,汽車業展開了轟轟烈烈的綠色革命。 事實上,中國政府計劃在 2012 年以前,把 中國打造成世界領先的混合動力和電動汽車 製造國。政府意識到,中國的汽車產業唯有 走綠色發展的道路,才能保護環境,節約能 源,才能屹立於世界之林,保持領先地位。

If one goes by the very recently concluded Beijing Auto Show held from end April to May 2010 then it is clearly obvious that China is now at the center of the world’s auto industry. They were all there… bigger participation than any of the other more renowned auto shows in Paris, Detroit, Tokyo and Frankfurt. The theme “Imagining the Green Future” is a portent of China’s intention to take the lead in the green future. From 16 countries came over 2,000 exhibitors who together with local car manufacturers showcased 65 concept vehicles, 95 alternative energy cars with 89 new models making their world debuts. And the exhibitors were not disappointed as the Beijing Auto Show of 2010 broke auto show attendance records… an estimated 700,000 visitors. There were cars for just about any market profile… first car owners, commercial vehicle buyers, sports utility enthusiasts, sports and supercar jockeys and a host of specially designed luxury vehicles for the Chinese market from Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. Some of these versions were “stretched” to accommodate the luxury market’s perchance to be driven rather than personally drive.

看過 4 月底至 5 月間舉行的北京國際汽 車展,你會發現中國已是世界汽車業的中 心。展會之上,各大車廠雲集,聲勢之大

The world’s automobile industry has no choice but to take China’s surge into the top of the global auto industry very seriously indeed. The 2008-2009 global JUNE 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Industry

third step to achieving that. For that matter, many people around the globe consider automobiles as desired status and prestige possessions. The government of China gives full support to the industry not just monetarily but in its unilateral ability to protect and forge industry directions. China’s labor cost is a fraction of what their competitors like Germany, Japan and the United States pay and there are no Chinese labor unions as well. China has aggressively gone after their competitor’s technology through joint ventures and buyouts as it has done with Volvo. The “baby 甚至連巴黎 , 底特律 , 東京和法蘭克福的 車展亦有所不及。本屆北京車展主題「暢 steps” China’s auto industry might have 想綠色未來」,彰顯中國引領綠色未來的雄 taken, as many other auto industries 心。包括本土廠商在內,有十六個國家的 have, became giant leaps over such a 兩千多家參展商雲集展會,共展出概念車 short period of time and so undeniably 65 部,新能源汽車 95 部,以及全球首發 there have been growing pains. China’s 新車 89 部。2010 年北京車展同樣沒讓參 spectacular auto industry growth has 展商失望,展會的觀眾人數創下歷史紀錄, not escaped controversy as some foreign 估計多達 70 萬人次。參展車輛面向各個市 carmakers have accused a few local 場層次,有首次購車者 , 商務車用戶 ,SUV Chinese carmakers of outright copies 愛好者,還有跑車和超級賽車發燒友,而 and industrial copyright and intellec奔馳 , 寶馬 , 奧迪等知名品牌,亦展示了 tual rights infringement. Some have 專為中國市場量身定制的豪華車。鑒於某 been taken to court. Perhaps the local 些豪華車用戶更注重乘坐體驗而不是駕駛 manufacturer’s exuberance to catch up 樂趣,一些車型還推出了加長版。 has carried them away. Nevertheless, as these manufacturers are consolidated To summarize, all things do point upwards for China’s automobile market. and the market evolves, these transgressions should disappear. They have the planet’s fastest growing economy that has barely scratched 總而言之,一切努力都是為了爭奪中國 汽車市場。這個國家擁有世界上增長最快 the surface of growth. The potential 的經濟,而這才是初露崢嶸,如前所述, for domestic auto sales growth alone 在中國每千人僅有 50 輛汽車,其銷售增長 as mentioned earlier is astronomical… only 50 cars so far for every 1,000 潛力深不可測。中國人注重面子 , 身份和 地位,而汽車是實現這些的必由之路。放 persons. The Chinese are image (face), 眼世界,把汽車視為身份地位之象徵的人 status and prestige driven and see cars 不在少數。中國政府全力扶持汽車產業, as the first, second and possibly the

A General Motors executive predicted that China’s auto market would be double the size of the

U.S. market by 2020

這不僅體現在財政政策上,還體現在對產 業的精心呵護和培育上。中國的勞動成本 只是美日德等競爭對手的零頭,而且中國 也沒有工會。中國人通過合資和兼併收購 (如收購沃爾沃),努力汲取對手之長。和 其他國家一樣,中國的汽車產業也經歷過 嬰兒學步的階段,然而彈指一揮間便實現 巨大飛躍,這當中難免要經受成長之痛。 伴隨著汽車業的高速發展,中國也招來一 些外國汽車製造商的非難,指責少數中國 本土汽車企業抄襲同行,侵犯他人的專利 和知識產權,更有甚者不惜訴諸法院。也 許是本土企業的追趕心理太迫切,這才走 火入魔。不過,隨著這些企業的整合和市 場發展,這些不光彩行為遲早會銷聲匿跡。

So there you have it, an auto industry in China that is not going away only ahead. A General Motors executive predicted that China’s auto market would be double the size of the U.S. market by 2020. It could be sooner than that. That speck in the rear view mirror that roared past earlier is now going to slowly turn into a speck from the front windshield view. Remember that China had barely any cars a mere 15 years ago in 1995. They haven’t even turned the turbo chargers on yet.

中國的汽車產業正在高歌猛進。據通用 汽車的一位高層人員預測,到 2020 年中 國汽車市場規模將比美國大一倍。事實上 也許用不了這麼久。那個後視鏡裏的小黑 點,正在慢慢地跑到擋風玻璃前方。別忘 了十五年前的 1995 年,在中國的大街上 幾乎見不到一輛汽車 ;更別忘了即便是現 在,中國也還沒踩足油門。|AT|

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如有任何查詢或意見,對這篇文章請發送 到:feedback@asiantir.com ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JUNE 2010


Asian Tigers Investor Report June Issue  

The June 2010 issue of our magazine.

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