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From the Editor’s Desk Asian Tigers: Always staying true to our name – we hunt for the most interesting business stories around Asia and take you on another well-informed tour, with our team of expert writers as your travel guides. In this issue, we bring you hot news and insights from China, Vietnam, Thailand -- and of course all the other countries in our region that are truly powering Asia as a global engine of growth. Ricardo G. Barcelona, from the leading British business school at Cranfield, shares his PhD research with us – and explains how Asia now has the exciting opportunity of becoming a global leader in renewable energy technologies, by making good business out of its sustainable resources. Continuing the ‘Green Theme’, our reporter Bruce Curran discovers how the Philippines capital Manila copes with its huge population of twelve million people generating 7,000 tons of domestic waste every day. And we consider the Asian Development Bank’s latest report, confirming their belief that Asia will lead the global economic recovery. The future does indeed look brighter in Asia – as Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas, from the University of Asia and the Pacific, concludes in his article: “There is no question that the 21st century will be the Asian Century”. This is just a quick taste of the pages that follow – so please take your time and savour the rest of our magazine, as we provide a range of helpful information to give you an advantage when doing business around Asia.

Asian Tigers Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing Editor Mark Wayne

Contributors

Chris Champion David Bowden Steven Lunt Jack Dixon Bert Olbes Bruce Curran Michael Wilson Bernardo Villegas Carl Nicholas Ng Emilio Antonio Jr. Ricardo Barcelona

Circulation Manager Bonnie Tsang

And, of course, you can check out our website at asiantir.com -- for all the very latest financial news.

Production Manager

Happy hunting…and browsing!

Design & Layout

Ferdie Ng

Paolo Yabao Charlie Greene

Design Assistants Gian Carlo Bernal, Chris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas

Marketing & Advertising

編輯寄語

Janina Garcia garcia@asiantir.com

亞洲虎雜誌,網羅亞洲商業故事,精彩紛呈,引人入勝,誠邀您與我們的專家作者一道,品味這段資訊之 旅。身在全球增長發動機的亞洲,本期雜誌為您呈遞中國、越南、泰國等區內國家的時事熱點與洞察。 來自英國頂級商業學府克蘭菲德大學的Ricardo G. Barcelona,將與我們分享他的博士研究著作,闡釋 亞洲如何善用可再生資源,成為全球可再生能源技術的領導者。 承襲「綠色主題」,Bruce Curran告訴您,菲律賓首都馬尼拉如何處理一千二百萬人口每天產生的七千 多噸垃圾。

Editorial & Comments Eric Wong editorial@asiantir.com

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

篇幅所限,不再一一詳列,諸多精彩,留給您去品味。我們呈上豐富資訊,助您把握亞洲商機,祝您事 業一帆風順。

No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only.

同時,歡迎您訪問我們的網站www.asiantir.com,瀏覽最新財經消息。

All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.

亞洲開發銀行發表最新報告,堅信亞洲必能引領全球經濟復甦。亞洲的前途一片光明,正如亞太大學 Bernardo M. Villegas博士的文章所下結論:「21世紀無疑是亞洲的世紀。」

祝您閱讀和線上瀏覽愉快! Charlie Greene

Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

The Asian Tiger Investor Report Website (www.asiantir.com), provides a wealth of services to both the Asian investor as well as investors globally who are interested in the Asian market. In addition to the latest financial news, stock quotes, financial calendars and forex rates, you can also find these additional features: Featured Company News - The place to look for news on companies that are making news. Expert Columns - Asian Tiger Investor Report features exclusive commentary from globally recognized columnists who are experts in their fields. Ask The Legal Experts - The complexities surrounding financial transactions can present a daunting minefield for investors. Gain expert help for your queries on securities and other transactions here. Broker/Dealer Search - Check the status of a broker, dealer or investment house or adviser to determine if they are registered in the jurisdiction they offer their services in. Detective Stock - Determine the worthiness of an equity and/or answer important questions about any specific stock.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


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Contents

Vietnam Emergence from the Ravages of War 40

30

China’s Dollar Dilemma

50

Recyling for Profit

17

44

Why Asian Banks have the Edge

Philippine BPO

Features 10 Forging a Unified ASEAN Exchange 構建東盟統一交易所 作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

14 Asia as the Global Engine of Growth 亞洲:全球經濟發動機 作者/by Bernardo Villegas

17 Why Asian Banks Have the Edge 亞洲銀行一枝獨秀的秘訣 作者/by Michael Wilson

20 Pegging to a Basket of Currencies: Does it Make Sense? 盯住一籃子貨幣: 能「釘」住嗎? 作者/by Emilio Antonio Jr.

27 From Rags to Riches and Back Again 貧與富的輪回 作者/by Chris Champion

30 China’s Dollar Dilemma 美元:中國的兩難選擇 作者/by Michael Wilson

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

37 Doing Business in Vietnam

On the Cover:

營商在越南 作者/by David Bowden

40 The Doi Moi Experience Vietnam’s Emergence from the Ravages of War 改革之路 越南的戰後崛起 作者/by Jack Dixon

44 The Erstwhile Unheralded BPO Sector 業務流程外判:一鳴驚人 作者/by Bert Olbes

50 Planning the Planet – Waste to Want: Recycling for Profit in the Philippines 規劃地球資源-變廢為寶 菲律賓透過廢物回 收實現經濟效益 作者/by Bruce Curran

55 Subsidise “Green” or Not: Avoiding Pitfalls... Creating Asian Opportunities 是否補貼綠色能源: 規避隱患……創造亞洲機遇 作者/by Ricardo Barcelona

33 China: Opening Digital Doors? 中國:開啟數字化之門 作者/ by Steve Lunt

Departments 6

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲 作者/by Chris Champion

62 Technical Overview of Markets 66 ATIR Market Report


6

Opinion

The 數字的遊戲

Numbers

Game 專欄作者/by Chris Champion

When Professor Elinor Ostrom

was named as a co-winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, it was considered controversial.

艾莉諾•奧斯特姆教授與人分享2009年諾 貝爾經濟學獎,消息傳來,引得譁然一片。

The 76-year-old American academic was one of a record five women to win Nobel prizes this year and the first ever woman to win an economics prize, but that is not what was controversial. The arm-flapping comes from traditionalists who label the work of Ostrom as social science rather than strict economics.

今年破天荒有五位女性榮膺諾貝爾獎, 這位76歲的美國學者是其中之一,也是首 位獲頒經濟學獎的女性,但爭議的焦點並 不在此。惹人非議的是,傳統主義者們將 奧斯特姆的研究歸於社會學的範疇,而非 嚴格意義上的經濟學。

What Ostrom’s work has attempted to show is that common resources like forests and fisheries are best exploited if the rules and regulations are set by their users rather than by government. However, according to Professor Steven Levitt, of the University of Chicago, “The economics profession is going to hate the prize going to Ostrom. Economists want this to be an economists’ prize. This (2009) award demonstrates...that the prize is moving toward a Nobel in social science, not a Nobel in Economics.”

她的研究試圖表明,像林、漁這些公共 資源,不宜由政府而是應該讓其使用者 來制定規章制度,才能得到最有效的利 用。然而芝加哥大學教授史蒂文•萊維特 表示:「經濟學界對奧斯特姆得獎忿忿不 平。經濟學家們覺得這應該是一個屬於經

濟學家的獎項,而今年(2009年)的評獎 則表明……這個獎項正朝著諾貝爾社會科 學獎的方向轉變,不再是諾貝爾經濟學獎 了。」

Ostrom herself acknowledges the distinction. “I’ve crossed disciplines, there’s no question about it,” she said.

奧斯特姆也承認這個差別,她說:「沒 錯,我確實跨了學科。」

We can not defer to the wisdom of Alfred Nobel on the issue, because he did not provide for an economics prize in his 1895 will. The prize was created, in his memory, in 1968 by the Swedish central bank.

在這件事上,諾貝爾本人也說的不算, 因為1895年他立下的遺囑中根本沒有經濟 學獎。這個獎項是1968年瑞典中央銀行為 了紀念諾貝爾才設立的。

The Nobel citation pointed to her research into “economic governance, especially the commons”, and judges noted how she “challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatised”.

諾貝爾獎給奧斯特姆的頒獎理由是她「 在經濟管理方面的分析,特別是對公共資 源管理上的分析」,評審說她「挑戰了人 們的傳統思維,也就是認為公共財產是管 理不好的,所以應該由中央政府統一管 理,或者私有化」。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Elinor Ostrom won the Nobel Prize with Oliver Williamson for their work in economic governance


Opinion

They will call Australia home 澳洲是我家 The question being commonly asked these days about Australian real estate is “duoshao qian?” It means “how much?” in Mandarin and, according to a recent report in Melbourne’s Herald Sun newspaper, leading property agents say more than 30 per cent of their stock is bought by families from mainland China. 近段日子,澳洲房地產市場經常能 聽到這樣一句中文:「多少錢?」據 墨爾本的《先驅太陽報》報道,來自 主流物業代理商的消息說,他們手中 的存量樓盤有三成多都被來自中國內 地的家庭買走了。 Scott Patterson, a director at agent Jellis Craig, said 34 per cent of his firm’s sales so far this year have been to mainland Chinese, up from 15 per cent in 2008. “Demand is so strong we’ve got two native speaker agents starting next week.”

萬到400萬澳元的郊區豪宅和臨近私立學校 的物業,最受中國人青睞。

Former plastic surgeon and financial planner Jin Shang will be Jellis Craig’s first Mandarin-speaking agent. “China is the world’s strongest economy and Australia’s major trading partner,” he said. “Chinese want residential properties here because they feel comfortable in Australia’s multicultural environment and they know it has one of the world’s best education systems.” 曾經作過整形外科醫生和財務策 劃師的尚進(音譯),成為Jellis Craig第一個能講中文的經紀。 「中國是世界經濟強國,也 是澳洲的主要貿易夥伴, 」他說:「中國人想在 澳洲置業,是喜歡澳洲

7

的多元文化氛圍,還有世界上數一數 二的教育體系。」 It’s just another challenge for homegrown Australian property agents. First they learned some polite greetings in Japanese when they drove a Queensland investment boom in the 1980s and 1990s, and then they learned the same greetings in Cantonese to welcome the Hong Kong interest in the run-up to the 1997 handover. Now they are busy adding Mandarin to their growing language skills.

現在,澳洲的物業代理商又遇到一個新 挑戰。回想1980到1990年代昆士蘭投資熱 的時候,他們得學會用日語寒暄。到了 1997年香港回歸,又要學廣東話來招待蜂 擁而至的香港客戶。如今輪到惡補中文普 通話了。

代理商Jellis Craig的董事斯科特•帕特 森說,今年中國內地客戶佔到公司銷售額 的三成四,比2008年的15%高出許多:「因 需求旺盛,我們特聘兩位能講中文的經紀 從下週開始工作。」

The boom was kickstarted by an Australian government decision last year to ease foreign investment rules on property. The Chinese are said to be most interested in properties in the A$1 million to $4 million range in upmarket suburbs and near private schools.

去年澳洲政府決定放寬外資投資房地產 的規定,樓市旋即升溫,據說價位介乎100

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


8

Opinion

They said... 名人名言 “Accountants are the witch doctors of the modern world, and willing to turn their hands to any kind of magic.” —Britain’s Lord Justice Harman (in a speech in 1964)

「會計師是現代世界的巫師,他們的手能變出任何魔術。」 —哈曼,英國大法官(1964年演講)

A MOMENT IN HISTORY It was another time, another world, in December 1849 when Thomas Carlyle wrote his name into history by describing economics as “the dismal science”. Carlyle, described variously as a teacher, historian and satirical writer, used the term in an article entitled “Occasional Discourse on the Negro Question”, in which he argued for the reintroduction of slavery as a means to regulate the labour market in the West Indies.

光倒流至1849年12月,托馬斯•卡萊 爾用一句經濟學是「無聊的科學」而留名 史冊。卡萊爾是一名教師,也是歷史學家 和諷刺作家。他在一篇名為「Occasional Discourse on the Negro Question」( 閒話黑奴問題)的文章中,使用了「無聊 的科學」一詞。文章為奴隸制的死灰復燃 發表辯護,認為奴隸制是一種能夠調節西 印度群島的勞動力市場的手段。 Yes, reintroduction. Mr Carlyle, whom many may consider to have been an endearingly witty person to coin such a phrase, was not an endearingly enlightened man. 是的,恢復奴隸制。也許因為那句妙語, 卡萊爾先生在許多人心目中是一個睿智的 人,但卻絕不是一位令人愛戴的啟蒙者。 Economists of the time spent much energy discussing the relationship between population and welfare, based on the 18th century postulations by Thomas Robert Malthus. Malthus, a British scholar and political theorist, thought that economic good times must always lead to economic bad times because good times will produce population growth which will create food shortages, poverty and hardship. 自從十八世紀托馬斯•羅伯特•馬爾薩斯 提出他的理論之後,經濟學家們便一直為

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

人口與福利的關係爭論不休。馬爾薩斯是 英國的學者和政治理論家,他認為經濟繁 榮必然導致經濟蕭條,因為繁榮時期人口 增長,造成食物短缺、貧窮和生計困難。 This was used by Carlyle and others as an argument against abolishing slavery because that, they said, would increase the rate of population growth. 這就給卡萊爾之流反對廢除奴隸制提供 了口實,他們說廢除奴隸制會加快人口 增長。 Carlyle’s opponents in this thinking were led by John Stuart Mill, who dared to suggest that it was institutions rather than population or race which created economic inequalities and hardship. 跟卡萊爾針鋒相對的,是以約翰•斯圖 亞特•密爾為首的陣營,他們大膽提出導

致經濟失衡和蕭條的是社會制度,而不是 人口或種族。 Slavery in the British colonies was abolished in 1834, and the French and Austrians did the same in 1848. The 1840s saw a series of reforms in factory conditions, including the introduction of a 10-hour day, and legislation prohibiting child and women labour in underground mines. 1834年英國殖民地廢除奴隸制,1848年 法國和奧地利也效仿了這做法。在1840年 代,用工制度有了一系列變革,包括實行 十小時工作制,以及立法禁止使用童工和 女工到地下礦山勞動。 It’s a pity Thomas Carlyle viewed such things as dismal developments. 可惜的是,卡萊爾先生把這一切都視作 無聊之舉。


10

Economy

Forging a

Unified

ASEAN

Exchange Six Association of Southeast Asian Nations stock exchanges are paving the way for a common regional equities market 東南亞國家聯盟六大證券交易所聯手籌 建區域性共同股市 作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng On 23 February this year, the

exchanges of five member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (more commonly known as ASEAN) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to form an electronic trading link between each other. The Bursa Malaysia, Indonesia Stock Exchange, Philippine Stock Exchange, Singapore Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Thailand were later joined by Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, which joined the initiative upon signing an Accession Agreement on 15 September 2009.

2009 年 2 月 23 日,東南亞國家聯盟(常 稱「東盟」)五名成員國之交易所簽署了 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

一份諒解備忘錄,協議建立電子交易對接 渠道。這五間交易所包括馬來西亞交易所、 印尼證券交易所、菲律賓證券交易所、新 加坡交易所以及泰國證券交易所,同年 9 月 15 日越南胡志明證券交易所簽署同盟協 議,加入該計劃。

The MOU envisions an ASEAN electronic trading link allowing investors in each of these countries to invest in equities listed on the other member exchanges. Under the proposal, an ASEAN bulletin board will be set up listing the 30 top stocks of each country (representing around two-thirds of the market capitalisation of regional stock markets), allowing these to be electronically traded in all six of the member exchanges through a com-

mon trading platform. To reduce foreign counterparty risks among the ASEAN brokerages, the ASEAN exchanges will establish their clearing houses as central counterparties for clearing and settlement of cross-border trades.

該諒解備忘錄擬實現東盟電子交易對接, 使成員國投資者能夠投資在其他成員國交 易所上市的股票。根據該構想,將開通東 盟交易議價板,納入各成員國的 30 強股 票(約佔區內證券市場總市值的三分之二), 這些股票可在上述六國交易所透過共同交 易平台進行電子交易。為降低東盟券商的 外國對手方風險,東盟各國交易所將成立 自己的結算中心,作為跨國交易的清算與 結算中央對手方。

According to Stock Exchange of


Economy

and different regulatory regimes on foreign ownership of companies.

據泰國證券交易所主席 Patareeya Benjapholchai 透露, 交易議價板和交易對接計劃定在 2010 年第四季開始執行。這個計 劃的秘書處就設在泰交所。然而 自 2 月份初步協議簽署以來,由 東盟各國交易所組成的工作組鮮 有公佈詳細計劃。在該計劃投入 運作之前,仍有諸多技術及金融 難題有待工作組予以解決,包括 實現六大交易所交易系統對接 的共同技術平台的建立, 六種不同貨幣的跨國交 易結算,以及對企業外 國股權的不同監管體制。

11

顯而易見。東盟十國(其餘四國為 :文萊、 柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸)共有 5.8 億人口, 2008 年綜合國內生產總值達 1.5 萬億美元。 自上世紀 90 年代起東盟就已著手準備成員 國共同市場的籌建事宜,亦為實現商品服 務的自由貿易、投資的自由流動及統一的 航空市場簽署了若干協議,目前這些協議 正在有條不紊地執行當中,目標是在 2015 年之前建成東盟經濟共同體。上述政策旨 在將東南亞各個獨立經濟體結成一個大聯 盟,提升其在國際舞台上的影響力,維護 自身利益。

MOU envisions an ASEAN electronic trading link allowing investors in each of these countries to invest in equities listed on the other member exchanges Thailand president Patareeya Benjapholchai, whose bourse is handling the secretariat for the initiative, the target for implementation of the bulletin board and trading link is the fourth quarter of 2010. However since the signing of the original agreement in February, there have been few new details emerging from the working group formed by the ASEAN exchanges. A formidable range of technical and financial issues need to be addressed by the working group before the proposal can become operational. These include the creation of a common technological platform for the six exchanges to link their trading systems with each other, the settlement of cross-border trades between countries using six different currencies,

Despite these challenges, the logic behind the initiative is apparent. The ten ASEAN countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are the other members) have a total population of approximately 580 million and a combined gross domestic product of US$1.5 trillion in 2008. Since the 1990s ASEAN has taken steps to erect a common market among their member-states, with several agreements signed for free trade in goods and services, free flow of investment and a single aviation market gradually being implemented with the goal of creating an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. These policies aim to bind the fragmented economies of Southeast Asia into one large bloc better capable of commanding attention and interest on the world stage. 拋開重重障礙不談,該計劃背後的動機

The linkage of ASEAN exchanges is an outgrowth of ASEAN’s wider economic consolidation, recognizing the need to combine the economic and financial strengths of the six members in order to form a more attractive regional capital market. The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF), which groups together the securities regulators of the region, issued a roadmap to create an integrated regional financial market by harmonising national regulatory and governance standards and building an infrastructure to support intra-ASEAN investment and fund-raising. The 13th ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting held in Pattaya, Thailand on 9 April this year endorsed the ACMF Implementation Plan, which featured as one of its strategic components the establishment of an ASEAN Bulletin Board and trading link. NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


12

Economy

TABLE 1. Signatories of the ASEAN Exchange Linkage MOU 表1. 東盟交易所對接備忘錄簽 署交易所 Bursa Malaysia 馬來西亞交易所

Main Index 主要指數

Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)b 總市值(百萬美元)b

Total Number of Trades in Shares YTD (Thousands)b 年初至今總成交量 (千股)b

YTD Performance (Major Index)a 年初至今表現 (主要指數)2

KLCI 大馬綜合指數

173,040.4

63,941.6

13,495.4

42.21%

Hochiminh Stock Exchange 胡志明證券交易所

VNIndex 越南指數

28,624.1

N/A

N/A

91.89%

Indonesia Stock Exchange 印尼證券交易所

JCI JCI

206,091.7

71,206.3

15,828.7

85.31%

Philippine Stock Exchange 菲律賓證券交易所

PSEi PSEi

55,748.2

13,122.8

1,474.2

56.48%

Straits Times Index 海峽時報指數

292,461.8

158,585.3

N/A

53.75%

SET Index 泰證指數

153,358.4

90,037.4

25,494.5

62.56%

909,324.6

396,893.4

56,292.9

67.69%

Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)b 總市值(百萬美元)2

Total Value of Share Trading YTD (US$ Millions)b 年初至今總成交額 (百萬美元)b

Singapore Exchange 新加坡交易所 The Stock Exchange of Thailand 泰國證券交易所 Total ASEAN Exchanges 東盟交易所合計 a

Total Value of Share Trading YTD (US$ Millions)b 年初至今總成交額 (百萬美元)b

Data as of October 14, 2009 from Bloomberg

○ 彭博資訊截至2009年10月14日數據。 b

Data as of September 30, 2009 from the World Federation of Exchanges

○世界交易所聯合會截至2009年9月30日數據。

TABLE 2. Comparison of ASEAN Exchange Linkage vs. Regional Financial Centers 表2.東盟交易所聯盟與區內金 融中心之比較 Australian Stock Exchange 澳洲證券交易所 Hong Kong Exchanges 香港交易所 Shanghai Stock Exchange 上海證券交易所

Main Index 主要指數

YTD Performance (Major Index)a 年初至今表現 (主要指數)2

S&P/ASX 200 標普澳證200

1,152,223.9

678,490.9

83,163.2

29.79%

Hang Seng Index 恒生指數

1,401,700.6

1,098,417.8

110,801.4

52.12%

Shanghai Composite 上證綜指

2,392,300.6

3,315,768.5

1,456,327.0

63.14%

TOPIX 東證指數

3,351,892.7

2,994,843.1

N/A

4.09%

909,324.6

396,893.4

56,292.9

67.69%

Tokyo Stock Exchange 東京證券交易所 Total ASEAN Exchanges 東盟交易所合計 a

Total Number of Trades in Shares YTD (Thousands)b 年初至今總成交量 (千股)b

Data as of October 14, 2009 from Bloomberg

○ 彭博資訊截至2009年10月14日數據。 b

Data as of September 30, 2009 from the World Federation of Exchanges

○ 世界交易所聯合會截至2009年9月30日數據。

東盟交易所的聯合是東盟日益廣泛的經 濟整合的產物,順應了聯合六國經濟及金 融實力、建立更具吸引力的區域性資本市 場的需求。東盟資本市場論壇 (ACMM) 將 區內證券監管機構集結起來,規劃出以協 調國家監管與治理標準及建設支持東盟內 部投資融資的基礎設施、構建統一區域性 金融市場的藍圖。今年 4 月 9 日第 13 次東 盟財長會議在泰國芭堤雅召開,會上通過 了 ACMM 實施計劃,被視為實現東盟交易議 價板與交易對接的里程碑。

Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanji, present at the signing of the MOU among the exchanges in Bangkok earlier this year, summarised the initiaASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

tive’s purpose succinctly: “This project will strengthen our regional financial stability by deepening regional capital markets and facilitating progressive liberalisation of our financial sector. A stronger, integrated and more competitive ASEAN is necessary to respond to the changing global landscape. Offering a single platform is a starting point to achieve our 2015 vision of a more integrated ASEAN capital market with harmonised rules, regulations and practices.”

泰國財長 Korn Chatikavanji 曾出席了 年初在曼谷舉行的各國交易所諒解備忘錄 簽署儀式,他一語道出了該計劃的宗旨: 「該

計劃將拓展區內資本市場深度,促進各國 金融業的逐步開放,增強區內的金融穩定。 環球市場風雲變幻,一個更強大、更具競 爭力、更加團結的東盟乃時勢所需。我們 的目標是在 2015 年建成規則、法規及實務 協調、整合力度更大的東盟資本市場,開 闢單一交易平台只是第一步。」

The integration of the ASEAN bourses is seen as a strategic move for domestic ASEAN financial markets to remain globally relevant. The premise of the initiative is that a pan-ASEAN equities market will increase the pool of capital available for investment by aggregating the individual domestic equity markets.


Economy

13

This will scale up the liquidity, diversity and depth of the ASEAN exchanges and theoretically attract more foreign capital, drawn in by the enhanced safety and choice available among ASEAN equities as an asset class. The end-goal is the creation of a more stable and appealing regional capital market that can help power Southeast Asia’s economic development by attracting foreign investment and creating more wealth through better investment opportunities for ASEAN citizens.

東盟交易所的整合被視為東盟 金融市場與國際接軌的策略性舉 措。該計劃的預期是透過泛東盟 股市匯集成員國的股市資金,擴 ASEAN integration is a stratigic move to 大可用於投資的資本池。這無疑 make the region globally relevant for big 將提升東盟交易所的流通量、多 company investors such as Microsoft 樣性及深度,理論上會吸引更多 外資,因為這將提升東盟股票作為一種資 changes are dwarfed by the major re產類別的安全性及選擇範圍。終極目標是 gional exchanges on measures like market 建立一個更為穩定、更具吸引力的區域性 capitalization, total value of trades and 資本市場,吸引更多外資,提供更好的投 number of trades, looking at them as a 資機會,幫助東盟人民創造更多財富,推 single ASEAN market presents a more 動東南亞經濟發展。 appealing picture. A combined ASEAN

Enhancing the competitiveness and appeal of ASEAN markets as investment destinations is even more urgent because of the presence of other competing financial centres in East Asia, which can attract capital away from ASEAN’s markets. Although the ASEAN exchanges have been some of the top global performers in the year-to-date (see Table 1), a brief comparison with the exchanges of other East Asian financial centres such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Sydney shows that the individual ASEAN exchanges lag behind their regional competitors badly in terms of liquidity and activity (see Table 2).

然而東亞還有其他金融中心的存在,在 吸引資金方面與東盟市場形成競爭,因此 增強東盟市場作為投資目的地的競爭力及 吸引力的工作顯得更為緊迫。從年初至今 東盟各交易所在全球市場表現榜單上當屬 佼佼者(參見表 1),但與東京、香港、上 海、悉尼等其他東亞金融中心的交易所相 比,不論是流通量抑或活躍程度,東盟交 易所的各自表現還是遠遠落後於區內競爭 對手(參見表 2)。

While each of the six ASEAN ex-

exchange with a market capitalisation of nearly US$910 billion is within touching distance of the next biggest capitalised market in the region, the Australian Stock Exchange. And while it lags behind on measures of trading liquidity and activity, a unified ASEAN exchange could well see a blaze of new activity upon its inauguration as ASEAN investors take advantage of fresh cross-border investment opportunities.

如單獨比較,就市值、成交額、成交量 等指標而言,東盟六大交易所在區內主要 交易所面前可謂是相形見絀,但如整體 而論,實力還是頗為矚目。東盟交易所綜 合市值近 9,100 億美元,距區內第二大市 場——澳洲證券交易所僅一步之遙。雖目 前在交易流通量及活躍程度方面較為落後, 但可以預料的是,隨著東盟投資者抓住新 的跨境投資機遇,東盟統一交易所一旦啟 動,前途不可估量。

Of course, all this remains theoretical until the working group produces more details on the actual operation of a regional trading link. Thus far there have been no public announcements of a time-

line with major milestones, besides the target launching during the 4th quarter of 2010. There is also a concern among some of the ASEAN exchanges, unvoiced in public, that the linkage may harm more than help the smaller exchanges by diverting the capital of their domestic investors away from locally-listed companies towards the larger and stronger companies of more developed exchanges in the grouping. The possibility remains that these fears coupled with other technical, financial or regulatory issues could yet delay or derail the implementation of ASEAN’s ambitions for a unified regional capital market, despite the contemplated benefits the initiative will bring to the Southeast Asian economies.

當然,除非工作組拿出更多有關區內交 易對接實際運作的詳細方案,否則這一切 只能是紙上談兵。除該計劃將在 2010 年第 四季開始執行之外,目前尚無任何主要進 展時間表出爐。然而東盟某些交易所心知 肚明,對接對小型交易所而言可能是弊大 於利,因為這會導致國內投資者放棄本國 上市公司,而將資金投向聯盟中發展程度 更高的交易所中規模更大、實力更強的公 司。雖然該計劃有望為東南亞經濟體帶來 一定好處,但上述擔憂連同其他技術、資 金或監管問題都可能使東盟建立統一區域 性資本市場的勃勃雄心遭到拖延,甚至宣 告流產。

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


14

亞洲

as the

Global Engine of Growth

作為

全球增長的發動機

Asia

Economy

作者/by Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

In its September 2009 update of development prospects in Asia, the Asian Development Bank reported that Asia will lead the global economic recovery despite the continuing poor export markets in the U.S. and Europe. Upgrading its March 2009 forecasts for Asia, ADB forecasted a 3.9 percent GDP growth for developing Asia (which excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand)) in 2009 and 6.4 percent in 2010. China and India will lead the whole region with China getting back to a 9 percent growth, representing what can be termed a V-curve recovery. India is forecasted to grow at 7 percent in 2010.

2009 年 9 月,亞洲開發銀行在對亞洲發 展前景的最新展望報告中指出,雖然歐美 出口市場持續低迷,但亞洲將引領全球經 濟走向復甦。亞開行修改了今年 3 月對亞 洲經濟增長的預測,目前預計亞洲發展中 經濟體(日本、澳洲及新西蘭除外)2009 年 GDP 將增長 3.9%,2010 年增長 6.4%。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

中國和印度是整個地區的火車頭,中國將 恢復 9% 的增長率,呈現 V 形復甦 ;而印度 2010 年則有望增長 7%。

These short-term forecasts are a harbinger for the shift of economic power from the former G-8 countries to the more dynamic members of the G-20 group that just met in Pittsburgh, U.S.A. in late September and is expected to assemble again in South Korea next year. China and India are at the forefront of the emerging markets that will have to increasingly propel global economic growth in the next five to ten years as the advanced countries slowly recover from stagnant consumer spending, high fiscal

deficits, current account deficits and the demographic crisis. A recent report of Oxford Economics (September 2009) speculates that although India’s growth trend is forecast to pick up to 7 - 8 percent over the next decade, this is not likely to be enough to overtake China’s pace of expansion. But India’s recent surge in growth has been achieved with few reforms. If it can manage to implement further liberalisation measures, attract increasing FDI inflows and turn its more favorable demographics to its advantage, then the “elephant” (India) may begin to catch up with the “dragon” (China) after 2020, although by that time the gap will be even wider than it is now.


Economy

15

A commercial area in Suzhou, China

這些短期預測預示著全球經濟的驅動力 正在從原先的八國集團,轉向更有活力的 二十國集團。9 月底二十國集團剛在美國匹 茲堡舉行峰會,明年將再度聚首韓國。就 在發達國家掙扎於消費者支出呆滯、財政 赤字高企、經常賬目逆差及人口危機之際, 中印兩國作為新興市場的領頭羊將會在未 來五到十年肩負起推動全球經濟增長的重 任。《牛津經濟》(2009 年 9 月)最近的一 份報告推測,印度經濟今後十年有望達到 7%-8% 的增速,可還是無法趕超中國。不過, 近年來印度經濟的騰 飛是建立在一系列改 革的基礎上,若能把 開放政策推向深入, 大力吸引外資,充份 發揮人口優勢,那麼 2020 年以後,「大象」 (印度)便有希望奮起 直追「巨龍」(中國)——儘管那時兩國的 差距會比現在更大。

N-11 (the Next Eleven) are considered emerging markets that will set the pace of economic growth in the coming decades is that they are experiencing an unprecedented explosion in what we can call a “global middle class.” As reported by Goldman Sachs economists Dominic Wilson and Raluca Dragusanu, some 1.7 billion people today can be considered middle class -- with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000

Close to 85 percent of the global middle class will live in the BRIC and N-11 countries.

The other emerging markets in the list of Goldman Sachs economists are Brazil, Russia, South Korea, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. The main reason why the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the

annually in PPP terms. This figure is likely to reach 3.6 billion by 2030. Close to 85 percent of the global middle class will live in the BRIC and N-11 countries. As consumer-oriented enterprises know, the middle class is the most fertile market for all types of consumer products and services that modern technology can make available. 高盛公司的經濟學家還列出了一些新興

市場,包括巴西、俄羅斯、韓國、孟加拉、 埃及、印尼、伊朗、墨西哥、尼日利亞、 巴基斯坦、菲律賓、土耳其及越南。新興 市場中的「金磚四國」(巴西、俄羅斯、印 度及中國)和「新鑽 11 國」將主導今後 數十年經濟增長的步伐,因為這些國家正 在經歷一場前所未有的爆炸式增長,在此 過程中,一個「全球中產階級」正在崛起。 高盛經濟學家多米尼克 • 威爾森和拉 魯卡 • 德拉古薩努發表報告稱, 現在全世界大約有 17 億人 屬於中產階級,以購買力 平價計算,其全年收入 介乎 6,000 至 30,000 美 元,到 2030 年人數將會 達到 36 億。全球有將近 85% 的中產階級都生活在 「金磚四國」及「新鑽 11 國」。消費導向型企業都知 道,在現代技術力所能及的範 圍內,中產階級可謂是所有消費 產品及服務最肥沃的市場。

In the Goldman Sachs study, over the next five years, to 2015, the middle class story is set to play out most vividly in a handful of countries:

高盛公司研究表明,未來五年直到 2015 年,中產階層將會成為許多國家的中堅力 量: NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


16

Economy PHOTOGRAPH © ADAM BAKER

• In China, rapid income growth means that nearly 60 percent of the population will be considered middle class by 2015, up from 37 percent today. In relative (as well as absolute) terms, China’s middle class could be larger than Brazil’s before 2015 (when Brazil’s share reaches 52 percent). In Russia, nearly three-quarters of the population is already “middle class,” and by 2015 more than 20 percent will have incomes above $30,000.

• 在  中國,隨著國民收入迅速增長,到 2015 年有將近 60% 的人口晉身中產階層, 相比現在為 37%。從相對(和絕對)角 度來看,2015 年之前中國的中產階層會 比巴西更大(那時巴西能達到 52%)。而 俄羅斯現在已有將近四分之三的人口成 為「中產階級」,到 2015 年將有超過兩 成的人口能賺到 3 萬美元以上的收入。

• Among the N-11, the highest middleclass shares today are to be found in Turkey (79 percent), Iran (70 percent) and Mexico (61 percent). These shares will remain relatively constant over the next five years.

•「新鑽  11 國」之中,中產階層比例最高 的分別是土耳其(79%)、伊朗(70%)及 墨西哥(61%),未來五年將保持相對穩定。

• Growth rates of the middle-class share

Moscow Shopping in front of Prospekt Mira

will be highest in India and Vietnam, averaging nearly 20 percent per year, and in Indonesia, averaging about 10 percent. In these three countries, rapid growth would be from an extremely low starting point: less than 10 percent of the population in both India and Vietnam, and less than 20 percent in Indonesia, is considered “middle class” today.

• 中  產階層增長最快的是印度及越南,年 均增長率接近 20% ;緊隨其後是印尼, 約達 10%。三國的高速增長源於起點極 低 :當前印度及越南的中產階層比例不 到 10%,印尼不到 20%。

Out of the 14 countries constituting the emerging markets that will dominate the global economy in the next 20 years, eight are in Asia, representing 80 percent of the total population of the group and 60 percent of their total GDP. As mentioned above, there will be an explosion of middle-class households in these Asian countries, making the entire region the most attractive investment site for consumer goods and services, such as processed food, fashion, furniture, tourism, health, logistics, banking, entertainment, consumer durable goods, education, and IT-enabled services. There is no question that the 21st century will be the Asian Century. For comments, my email address is bvillegas@uap.edu.ph.

在未來 20 年主導全球經濟的 14 個新興市場國家中,有八個在亞洲,占總 人口的 80% 和 GDP 總量的 60%。如上所述, 這些亞洲國家的中產階級家庭將會出現爆 炸式增長,令整個地區成為最具吸引力的 投資地點,諸如加工食品、時裝、家俬、 旅遊、保健、物流、銀行、娛樂、耐用消 費品、教育、IT 服務等消費產品和服務欣 欣向榮。毋庸置疑,21 世紀將是亞洲的世紀。 歡迎發送電郵至本人郵箱 bvillegas@uap. edu.ph 發表評論。

Shopping in Guragaon Mall, India ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


17

Economy

Why

亞洲銀行一枝獨秀的秘訣

Asian Banks Have the Edge

作者/by Michael Wilson

It still surprises a lot of people

to learn that the world’s three largest banks are Chinese. After all, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the China Construction Bank and the Bank of China weren’t in the global top 20 list at all a decade ago, when Citigroup and Bank of America headed the world market capitalisation league. (Fair enough, you might think, because strictly speaking, none of the three Chinese institutions had a market capitalisation at all in the 1990s.) But such an objection is merely dodging the real issue. Namely, that the global banking crisis has wreaked such a vengeance on the established institutions of the west that the old market leaders have taken the most appalling hits. While their Asian rivals, unaffected by bad habits, have prospered mightily.

in 2009, however, only three still made the cut.

如今,這三間中國銀行的市值都達到 1,000-2,000 億美元,比前二十名排行榜 上的後十五間銀行的平均市值高出三倍。 緊接其後的是英國滙豐銀行(有趣的是滙 豐銀行起源於香港),然後是摩根大通和三 菱金融集團,這幾個難兄難弟沒有一家的

市值超過 600 億美元。1999 年,世界二十 大銀行中有十一間來自美國,到了 2009 年 只剩下三間。

Where does the blame lie for this? Well, we all seem to be agreed that it was the sophistication of the west that ultimately proved to be its downfall. The whole complex panoply of debt securi-

1999 – 2009年全球20大金融機構市值排名(單位:十億美元)

Top 20 Financial Institutions

MARKET CAPITALIZATION $Bn 1999-2000 Indl and Commercial Bank of China China Construction Bank Bank of China HSBC

全球最大的三間銀行均出自中國,許多 人到現在還覺得不可思議,畢竟就在十年 前,當花旗集團和美國銀行領銜全球市值 榜的時候,中國工商銀行、中國建設銀行 和中國銀行還都在二十名開外。(平心而 論,這樣的想法無可厚非,因為嚴格說來, 九十年代這三間中國銀行根本無市值可 言。)但是,信也罷,不信也罷,事實總改 不了。那便是,這場席捲世界的銀行危機, 著實讓西方的老牌金融機構嘗盡苦頭,往 昔風光無限的資本大鱷元氣大傷,而他們 的亞洲勁敵不但毫髮無損,反而蒸蒸日上。

JPMorgan Chase

Nowadays the three Chinese giants each command market caps of $100-200 billion each - and incidentally, that’s about three times the average value of the next fifteen largest banks in the Top 20 list. Next in line is the British bank HSBC (whose origins lie in Hong Kong, interestingly enough), and then by an excruciatingly shrunken JP Morgan Chase and a chastened Mitsubishi Financial, neither of which tops $60 billion. In 1999, eleven of the world’s top 20 banks were American;

Westpack Banking

Mitsubishi UF_Financial Banco Santancer Goldrran Sachs Wells Fargo Bank of Communications Royal Bank Canada China Merchants Bank

BNP Paribas Itau Unlbanco Tororro - Domnion Bank Commonwealth Bank of Australia Bradesco Intesa San Paolo Credit Suisse

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


18

Economy

photograph © 陈少举

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. is China’s largest bank and the largest bank in the world by market capitalization

tisation, derivative-backed instruments, subprime lending and ‘special investment vehicles’ (i.e. shady off-balance-sheet bins for dumping unpleasant liabilities) were enough to give a generation of ambitious investment bankers all the rope they needed with which to hang themselves and, in many cases, their employers too. Whereas Asian banks, which were largely untouched by such elaborately deviant practices, were spared the crippling embarrassment of having to tell their shareholders that they were in danger of going under. Because they weren’t….

rolling out national development strategies, and which are in no hurry to give them the sort of free rein that doomed their British and American rivals. But then, we’d be foolish to ignore the sobering effects of the 1997 financial crisis, and the enduring lessons Asian businesses that Asia learned place an enormous from it. If we ever emphasis their relationship with 錯在哪里?錯在西方人太過精明。外表 wonder why so many clients and bank 光鮮卻錯綜複雜的債務證券化、衍生產品 Asian governments are 支持的金融票據、次級貸款以及「特殊投 still reluctant to let for資工具」(就是游離於資產負債表之外用來 eign institutions get extensively 處置壞賬的公司),足以把那些貪婪的投資 involved in local markets - and especially 銀行,連同他們的僱員一起推上絕路。 相 in investment funding - we need only 反,亞洲銀行大都沒有染指這些邪門歪道, remind ourselves of the rankling memory 所以不必擔心破產而無顏以見股東。 that foreign ‘interference’ and ‘manipulaUp to a point, of course, this lack of tion’ left behind them at that time. It will sophistication reflects the fact that many be many years before those feelings go Asian banking systems are still tightly away. controlled and monitored by governments 看似不夠「精明」,實則反映出亞洲的銀 行系統始終受到政府的嚴格控制和監督。 which regard them primarily as tools for ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

在政府眼中,銀行是推行國家發展戰略的 工具,不能任其信馬由韁,否則就會走上 英美同行那樣的不歸路。我們也不該忘記 1997 年金融危機的慘痛經歷,那次的教訓 讓亞洲刻骨銘心。 想當年,外國的「干涉」 和「操縱」還歷歷在目,所以亞洲的許多 政府到現在還不願讓外資大舉進入國內市 場,尤其是從事投資融資。豈能好了傷疤 忘了疼。

The Local Dimension 東西有別 In the meantime, there’s also the important matter of trust. In the west, borrowers’ relationships with their lenders tend to be functional, impersonal, and brutally business-minded. Asian businesses, however, place an enormous emphasis on ‘slow-burn’ relationships which can take many years to develop, but which create more stability and more certainty between borrower and lender, between investor and adviser. It doesn’t seem very likely that Asian banks would have deliberately sold bundles of bad securitised loans to their commercial clients, the way that American banks passed on their subprime obligations. The mutual relationship of trust and respect simply wouldn’t have survived it.

話及於此,不能不 談談信任。在西方,債 主與債戶之間是一種公事 公辦、不講人情、純粹商業化 的關係。 反觀亞洲公司則注重「細水長流」 的常年合作,這讓借貸雙方以及投資者和 投資顧問之間關係穩固,知根知底。亞洲 的銀行很少故意將不良貸款證券化後打包 出售給商業客戶,而這恰是美國的銀行轉 嫁其次級債務的招數,其結果必然是毫無 互信和尊敬可言。

This close, more personal relationship with clients is finely illustrated by the


Economy

近期接受《經濟學人》雜誌採訪時表示, 這些銀行可以更好地滿足小型企業的需求, 未必不如西方那些效率高卻刻薄無情的大 銀行。他說,政府需要解決的一個薄弱環 節是,小銀行現在還沒有行之有效或者是 一體化的制度來給客戶的風險狀況進行分 類和評估,這不但阻礙企業貸款,也是經 濟加速發展的絆腳石。

prevalence of small and local banks in many parts of Asia. Justin Lin, the chief economist at the World Bank, told The Economist magazine recently that, in his view, these banks were better able to serve the needs of small-scale businesses than the larger, more efficient but essentially faceless institutions that dominate the west. The main drawback that governments still needed to address, he said, was that the smaller banks still had no effective or integrated systems for classifying and assessing their clients’ risk profiles. This in turn was hampering entrepreneurs in their efforts to get credit, and it was one of the main stumbling blocks to faster economic growth.

在亞洲,本地化的小銀行遍地開花,注 重人情味的客戶關係在他們身上得到了很 好的體現。世界銀行首席經濟學家林毅夫

China’s Lurking Bank Debts 中國的銀行債務:光環下的隱憂 Of course, not everything is quite as transparent as we would like it to be. China’s own banks wouldn’t look as good as they do today if the state hadn’t lifted some $3 trillion of bad loans off their shoulders between 1999 and 2003 and stored the debts in four specially created ‘bad banks’, where they still sit to this very day, festering darkly and permanently on the brink of default.

當然,事情並非我們看到的那樣簡單。 如果不是 1999 年到 2003 年國家把三萬億 美元的壞賬剝離,又把債務轉到專設的四 間「壞賬銀行」,今日中國的銀行哪來這般 風光。而那些壞賬卻一直沉睡至今,債務 清償遙遙無期。

At the moment this problem belongs to the government, not the banks. The ‘bad banks’ paid them for most of the dodgy

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loans at full face value, using interestbearing bonds which are still producing a useful income stream for the banks today. In one brilliant stroke, the bad debts had been transformed into lucrative assets. But what happens when the government eventually needs to redeem the bonds? The authorities are ominously silent on the subject - instead, they just keep rolling the bonds forward. And the cost of servicing the debts is mounting inexorably…

現在這個問題已經甩給政府,跟銀行再 無瓜葛。「壞賬銀行」發行有息債券,原價 購入大部份的不良貸款,今天這些債券是 銀行的一個穩定收入來源。將壞賬變成獲 利資產,這步棋走得高明,但是贖回期限 一到,政府又該怎辦?對此,當局諱莫如 深——其實何必遮掩,到時展期便是,只 是還債成本的雪球怕是要越滾越大……

Back to Basel 回歸巴塞爾 But enough of this. Nowadays it’s reckoned that Asia’s banks exceed the Tier 1 capital requirements of the Basel II banking accord by such a wide margin that they put the west to shame. Capital ratios of 9-11% (source: Goldman Sachs) would have met even the rigid requirements of the old Basel 1 accord, which was scrapped at America’s insistence in favour of a “more flexible” and lenient Basel II.

再來看看其他方面。據估算,現在亞洲 銀行滿足巴塞爾 II 協定的一級資本充足率 規定是綽綽有餘,足以令西方的同行們汗 顏。9-11% 的資本充足率(資料來源:高盛) 甚至可以滿足原先巴塞爾 I 協定的苛刻要 求。因為美國堅持「靈活為上」,巴塞爾 I 被廢棄,取而代之以寬鬆的巴塞爾 II。

Basel I had essentially demanded a flat 8% ratio against all lending; Basel II, however, effectively allowed the banks to assess their own risk, and to decide for themselves how large their capital ratios needed to be. That was a principle that seemed quaintly acceptable ten years ago. But these days, who believes a bank’s own self-assessments any more?

巴塞爾 I 的核心要求是所有貸款一律要 求 8% 的資本充足率。巴塞爾 II 則是允許 銀行評估自身風險,自行決定所需的資本 充足率。這原則十年前也許還可接受,可 是現在誰還相信銀行會自我評估? |AT|

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

Pegging to a Basket of Currencies: Does it Make Sense? 盯住一籃子貨幣: 能「釘」住嗎? 作者/Emilio T. Antonio Jr.,

Don’t be surprised in a communist

country such as Vietnam to encounter red tape – it’s part and parcel of the communist world. However, things have changed markedly over the past decade and doing business here is a lot easier than it once was.

在越南這樣的共產國家遇到官僚主義不足 為怪,那是共產世界的通病。然而最近十 年有了很大改觀,在越南做生意不再越來 「越難」。

This has not escaped many large international companies who now see Vietnam as an important location to open shop to access its large pool of workers, and try to reach the 86 million consumers within the country. Some industry players see Vietnam as being a better investment proposition than China and the country is now attracting more manufacturers and foreign capital. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

許多跨國巨頭現在都把越南視為一個重 要據點,紛紛在此開店設廠,正是看中該 國豐富的勞動力資源,還有多達8,600萬人 口的大市場。更有行家覺得越南是一個比 中國更好的投資題材,而這個國家正在吸 引越來越多的廠商和外資。

Its economic growth rates are also impressive and over the past decade it has been one of the world’s fastest growing economies. In 2008, the economy expanded by 6.2% (which was one of the lowest annual figures over the past decade) but this was down on the 2007 figure of 8.5%. In May this year, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung predicted a growth rate of just 5% due to the global economic slowdown.

越南的經濟發展速度同樣驚人,過去十 年是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。2008 年經濟增長6.2%(這是十年來的最低增 速),而2007年則有8.5%。今年5月,阮晉 勇總理預測說,受環球經濟衰退影響,今

年經濟增長率可能只有5%。

The Government’s economic stimulus package and a ‘Vietnamese use Vietnamese products’ campaign have seen the industry and trade sector of the economy increase by 10% monthly since July 2009, according to Government figures. The Government has provided loans with subsidised interest rates for farmers to purchase new equipment and construction materials. The garment and textile sector has also increased output with an emphasis on meeting increased domestic demand.

在政府的經濟刺激計劃和「國人用國 貨」的宣傳運動下,政府統計顯示,自從 2009年7月以來,工業和貿易部門每月均能 增長10%。政府還為農戶提供貼息貸款購置 新設備和建材,而在內需上升帶動下,紡 織和服裝業生產亦有增加。

An October report by the Standard Chartered Bank revised upwards its three


Economy

year economic outlook for the country based upon the nation weathering the economic downturn better than expected. It also made reference to the resilient domestic demand and the Government’s proactive fiscal policies as reasons to adjust its predicted growth rate to 4.9% for 2009, 7.7% for 2010 and 7.2% in 2011.

10月份渣打銀行在一份報告中上調了未 來三年越南的經濟展望,理由是該國比預 期更好地抵禦了經濟衰退,再加上內需強 勁和未雨綢繆的財政政策,該行把2009 年、2010年和2011年的預測增長率分別調 整到4.9%、7.7%和7.2%。

However, a rising inflation rate is a concern for some investors. The rate for 2008 was 23% and one of the highest in the world. Things slowed down markedly due to lower transportation and telecommunication charges and by May 2009, the Government was predicting a figure for the year of around 6%.

然而,不斷上升的通脹率卻是投資者的 心病。2008年越南通脹率達23%,是世界 上通脹最嚴重的國家之一。後來隨著交通 和電訊投資的減少,通脹明顯緩和,今年 5月政府預測全年通脹率大概在6%上下。

The report by the Standard Chartered Bank made reference to these emerging risks in the economy and most notably, an imbalance between domestic strength and external weakness. It also commented that while the inflation rate had been partly reined in, the aggressive

In short, a country like the Philippines whose currency is not generally accepted for international transactions faces a basic reality: fiscal and monetary stimulus is creating inflationary expectations which could be self-fulfilling. While the Bank doesn’t expect big increases in most commodities in the near future, it notes that any sharp increase could trigger further deterioration in the trade deficit (US$18 billion in 2008) and inflation. The Bank also reports that there are few signs of exports improving.

渣打銀行的報告提及了這些新出現的經 濟風險,尤其是強勁的內需與疲弱的外貿 所形成的反差。該行並指,儘管通脹有所 收斂,可是擴張性的財政和貨幣刺激政策 正在加重通脹預期。該行不認為大宗商品 價格近期內會普遍大幅上漲,但強調說, 一旦大宗商品價格急劇攀升,勢必導致越 南貿易赤字(2008年:180億美元)和通 脹形勢進一步惡化。與此同時,該行稱出 口有好轉跡象。

Opportunities and Threats 機遇和挑戰 Those who favour Vietnam as a place to invest cite its demographics as one

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of the major factors – a large number of consumers and a low per capita income of around US$900 per annum (one of the region’s lowest but higher than neighbouring Cambodia and Laos). While coming from a low base, there is a huge upside as the country grows and develops and increasingly moves from being an agricultural-based economy to a manufacturing one.

人口是吸引外商投資越南的主要因素之 一。越南擁有龐大的消費者群體,但人均 年收入僅有900美元(處於整個地區的最低 水平,只比鄰國柬埔寨和老撾高一些), 雖然基數很低,但隨著越南從農業經濟向 製造業經濟的轉型,未來將有巨大的上升 潛力和發展空間。

For investors who like the potential of Vietnam many list its low-cost production, the increasing Government commitment to promoting the private sector and the privatisation of stateowned enterprises as a reason to invest in Vietnam.

低廉的生產成本,政府大力促進私營經濟 的決心,以及國有企業的私有化,使得許多 投資者看中越南的潛力並願意投資於越南。

State-owned enterprises have declined from 14,000 in 1990 to less than 4,000 today and the figure is continually going down. Concurrently the figure is reversed for private companies with the figures going from something in the order of 100 in 2000 to over 200,000 today.

國營企業從1990年的一萬四千家減少到 今天的不到四千家,而且還在不斷減少。 與此同時,私營企業卻如雨後春筍般湧 現,從2000年的一百家增加到今天的二十 萬家。

The World Bank Country Manager for Vietnam, Ms. Victoria Kwakwa was recently reported as saying However, she stressed the need to reduce problems of infrastructure within the country.

據報道,世界銀行駐越經理維多利亞•科 瓦科瓦女士近日表示,越南應對經濟下滑 的表現比其他一些國家來得好(2009年6月 8日《越南新聞報》),但她強調越南的基 礎設施問題亟待解決。

Speaking at the same time at the Vietnam Business Forum, Alain Cany, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Eurocham) also commented that infrastructure was a challenge -- especially the nation’s poor NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

port facilities. Slow infrastructural growth and logistics support are cited by several sources as threatening current and future foreign direct investment.

歐盟商會駐越主席簡毅倫在「越南商務 論壇」上說道,基礎建設尤其是薄弱的港 口設施是一個挑戰。緩慢的基建發展和物 流支持被稱為是威脅當前和日後外商直接 投資的隱患。

Vietnam News also reported that complex administrative procedures and inconsistent and poor l y coordinated efforts by the authorities in according to Huynh Van Minh, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association.

《越南新聞報》引述胡志明市商會會長 Huynh Van Minh報道說,政府機關繁瑣的 行政手續,以及執法時前後不一、各行其 是的現象,同樣是商業發展的絆腳石。

Fund Investment 基金投資 An alternative to investing directly in Vietnam is to invest via managed funds, and there are at least 50 funds worldwide from which to choose. In 2008, ATF Kearney ranked Vietnam as the number one emerging market in terms of its retail attractiveness.

基金投資是對越投資的直接渠道之一, 現在全世界有50多支這樣的基金可供選 擇。2008年,科爾尼公司把越南評為零售 吸引力第一的新興市場。

Some funds are managed within the country while others are externally managed by companies such as Deutsche Bank (DWS Vietnam Fund), Jardine Fleming ( JF Vietnam Opportunities Fund) and Prudential Investment Fund Management (Vietnam Segregated Portfolio Fund).

這些基金有的是在越南國內管理,有的 則在國外管理,基金管理公司有德意志銀 行(德銀越南基金)、怡富公司(怡富越 南機遇基金)和保誠投資基金管理公司( 越南獨立投資組合基金)等。

Deutsche Bank launched its closedend fund in December 2006 with an authorised share capital of US$500 million but, like other funds, experienced an over exuberant market in 2007 as well as turbulent times due to the global economic meltdown. Vietnam’s equity market saw a decline of 57% in the first six months of 2008. 德意志銀行於2006年12月推出法定股本

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

為五億美元的封閉式基金,跟其他基金一 樣經歷了2007年市場的紅火,也遭遇了環 球經濟衰退帶來的寒冬。2008年前六個 月,越南股市暴跌57%。

While the DWS Fund has dipped substantially since its inception (-42.31% to the end of August) it has shown a marked turnaround in recent months, and the fund managers are cautiously optimistic in the short term but very optimistic for the long term. They see there are good current opportunities to invest in a market which has strong investment fundamentals.

Implication: businesses

should explore the possibility of shifting their target market for exports and the sources of the goods that they import. 德銀基金一度大幅縮水(截至8月末下跌 42.31%) ,最近幾個月開始恢復元氣,基 金經理對短期前景審慎樂觀,但十分看好 長期前景,認為現在是投資於這個基本面 穩固的市場的良機。

With its large domestic market and low-cost production base, Vietnam is one of the emerging Asian tigers to consider as an investment opportunity in the coming years. 憑藉巨大的國內市場和低成本的生產基

礎,越南正成為新興的亞洲小虎之一,未 來數年投資機遇不可小覷。 Volatile exchange rates worry

business people because they make planning difficult. For exporters, for example, revenues expressed in their home currency become difficult to predict when exchange rates swing wildly. The same thing is experienced by manufacturers who use imported raw materials. Frequent changes in exchange rates make it difficult to pin down their production costs which, in turn, could make pricing decisions more difficult. For those with significant exposures to loans denominated in foreign currencies, frequent fluctuations in exchange rates also place the profit positions of companies at frequent risk. 匯率起伏不定,商界人士惶惶不安,無從 規劃未來。一旦匯率震盪劇烈,進口商將 難以預測按本國貨幣計算的收入。需要進 口原材料的製造商亦面臨著同樣難題,因 為匯率的頻繁波動使製造商無法確定生產 成本,從而增加了定價難度。對於那些負 有大量外幣債務的企業,匯率的頻繁浮動 亦會讓公司的盈利狀況如履薄冰。

In the past, these concerns gave rise to proposals to peg the value of a nation’s currency to the US dollar (as in the case of Argentina) or to any stable major currency. Pegging to the US dollar, however, has also become problematic. This is because the parity


Economy

rate of the dollar versus other major currencies has become more volatile than it used to be.

過去,這些擔憂催生了將一國貨幣的價 值與美元掛鈎(如阿根廷)或與任何穩定 的主要貨幣掛鈎的作法。然而與美元掛鈎 亦非安全無虞,因為美元對其他主要貨幣 的平價匯率遠不如從前穩定。

This development, therefore, has given rise to another policy proposal: countries are urged to peg the value of their currency to a basket of currencies rather than just a single major foreign currency. This is seen as a possible way to avoid these volatilities. The suggestion looks intuitively appealing but does it really address the problem with volatilities effectively?

考慮到這一變化,另一政策也孕育而 生:各國不再單純盯住一種主要外國貨 幣,而是紛紛將本國貨幣與一籃子貨幣掛 鈎。這一度被視為避免浮動的可行方法。 從表面來看,這個建議的確十分具有吸引 力,但它真的能夠有效解決匯率波動的問 題嗎?

outside the influence of the Philippines. When these exchange rates change (and they do more frequently now), the pesoyen and peso-euro rates would definitely change even if the peso-dollar rate remains constant.

以菲律賓為例,這一做法或許可以維持 比索兌美元匯率的穩定,但無法保證比索 兌日圓、兌歐元亦能同等穩如泰山。原因 很簡單。日圓兌美元與歐元兌美元的匯率 由國際市場決定,而這絕非是菲律賓的意 志所能左右的。一旦這些匯率出現波動( 而且目前波動更為頻繁),即使比索兌美 元企穩,比索兌日圓及兌歐元亦必將受到 牽連。

It is only free to set one exchange rate – that between its own currency and what it considers as its vehicle currency for international payments. In the Philippine case, this is the US dollar. Once the pesodollar rate is determined, the peso-yen and peso-euro rates are automatically determined. This is because the yen- and euro-dollar rates are already set in the world market.

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一言以蔽之,像菲律賓這樣貨幣不是國 際交易通用貨幣的國家都有一個基本國 情:只握有一個匯率的決定權——即本國 貨幣與被其用作國際支付交易通貨之間的 匯率。就菲律賓而言,這一通貨就是指美 元。一旦比索兌美元匯率確定下來,比索 兌日圓及比索兌歐元的匯率自然也就八九 不離十了,因為日圓兌美元及歐元兌美元 匯率已在國際市場有所定論。

An example can make this clearer. If the peso-dollar exchange rate were PHP 50, the peso-yen and peso-euro rates would be determined automatically given the existing yen- and euro-dollar rates. If the yen-dollar and euro-dollar rates, for example, were ¥90 and €0.70 respectively, these would imply that the peso-yen rate would be PHP0.55 and peso-euro rate would be PHP71.42. Can the peso-yen and peso-euro rates differ from these? Definitely not. Otherwise, the market would eventually see the potential for arbitrage and immediately wipe out any deviation from such rates. 現舉一實例說明。如比索兌美元匯率為

A Different Ballgame 格局變化 With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods Agreement in the early seventies, the world virtually shifted from a fixed exchange rate system to one where realignments among major currencies have become more frequent. This has important implications for countries whose currencies are not traditionally used for international transactions. Under this system, such countries could no longer insulate themselves from these exchange rate changes.

自70年代初佈雷頓森林體系崩潰後,全 球實際上已經摒棄了固定匯率制度,主要 貨幣的匯率重整越來越普遍。這對於本國 貨幣一般不用作國際交易的國家而言具有 重要影響。在該制度下,面對匯率浮動, 這些國家不再能夠獨善其身。

Let us examine what has happened. 讓我們來看看具體情況如何。 Consider for example the case of the Philippines. It may be able to keep the peso-dollar rate stable but this does not guarantee that the same stability would hold for the peso-yen and peso-euro rates. The reason is simple. The yen- and euro-dollar exchange rates are determined in a world market which is obviously NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

50比索,則比索兌日圓及比索兌歐元匯率 也隨之確定,因為日圓兌美元及歐元兌美 元匯率經已確定。如日圓兌美元及歐元兌 美元匯率分別報90日圓及0.70歐元,照此 推算,比索兌日圓匯率為0.55比索,比索 兌歐元匯率為71.42比索。比索兌日圓及兌 歐元匯率能否與之有所出入?絕對不行。 否則市場將發現套利機會,從而迅速抹平 差距。

Thus, while it may be possible to stabilise an exchange rate between its currency and the vehicle currency, this does not insulate the country from the exchange rate changes with other currencies.

如此一來,儘管可以穩定本國貨幣與交 易通貨之間的匯率,但亦不能阻止本國貨 幣與他國貨幣匯率的浮動。

Would pegging to a basket of currencies do the trick?

盯住一籃子貨幣掛鈎能否「釘」住匯 率?

The question to ask therefore is: Would ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

pegging to a basket of currencies be able to insulate a nation from exchange rate volatility?

隨之而來的問題是:與一籃子貨幣掛鈎 能否使一個國家免受匯率波動的影響?

To be able to answer this, we need to define first what we mean by pegging to a basket of currencies. This requires that we should be clear on what we want to achieve with this policy. If our aim is to rule out volatilities in exchange rates, pegging to a basket of currencies could mean that we would like to minimise the average change in the exchange rate of the home currency relative to the foreign currencies we have placed in this basket.

要回答這一問題,首先要清楚何謂與一 籃子貨幣掛鈎,即是說我們應該釐清該政 策的實施目標。如果我們的目標是減少匯 率波動,那麼與一籃子貨幣掛鈎就是指我 們希望將本國貨幣兌籃中外國貨幣匯率的 平均變幅降至最低。

Let us examine the extreme case where

would like to have no change in this composite exchange rate. To be able to do this, we would need to offset any change in one exchange rate with the opposite change in another exchange rate. For example, if the peso-yen rate changes, neutralising this would mean that we need to change the peso-dollar rate in the opposite direction.

讓我們看看在綜合匯率沒有變化情況下 的極端例子。要保持綜合匯率不變,一種 匯率的變動需由另一匯率的反方向變動所 抵銷。例如,如比索兌日圓匯率有變,要 中和這一影響,比索兌美元匯率需出現反 方向變動。

Does this move eradicate volatilities in exchange rates? Clearly, it does not. Avoiding the movement in the composite requires opposite changes in specific exchange rates. In the real world, exporters, importers, foreign investors and local consumers do not deal with a nebulous composite exchange rate index.


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Economy

Their transactions are carried out in specific currencies. Trying to maintain a constant value for the composite does not insulate them from the changes in the exchange rates of specific currencies they deal with and the uncertainties that these changes bring with them.

那麼此舉能否消除匯率的波動呢?顯然 不能。要使綜合匯率保持不變,某些匯率 須有反方向變動。然而在現實世界中,出 口商、進口商、境外投資者及國內消費者 都不是按這個不清不楚的綜合匯率指數交 易,而是以具體貨幣交易。即使綜合匯率 保持不變,但交易貨幣匯率的浮動以及匯 率浮動帶來的不確定性還是會對上述人士 產生影響。

Conclusion: In the current economic environment, there is no way of eradicating exchange rate changes even if we attempt to peg the value of our home currency to a basket of currencies.

結論:在當前的經濟環境下,即便是將 本國貨幣與一籃子貨幣掛鈎,亦無法阻止 匯率浮動。

Business and policy implications 經營與政策層面意義 If we cannot rule out volatilities in exchange rates, what do we need to do? Obviously, we have to learn to live with them. One option is to take advantage of unfolding business opportunities when exchange rates among major currencies get realigned. For example, when the yen becomes strong against the dollar, this only means one thing: imports from Japan tend to become more expensive in dollar terms while it becomes more attractive for exports.

既然無法控制匯率,我們還能有何作 為?顯然,我們必須學會適應匯率。方案 之一就是在主要貨幣匯率重整之時把握住 潛在的商業機遇。例如,如日圓對美元走

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

強,這意味著按美元計,來自日本的進口 成本上升,但對日本的出口則吸引力上 升。意義:企業應探求對目標市場的出口 機遇,尋找其他商品進口來源。

企業往往將對沖與投機混為一談。而且發 展中國家的有關市場發展水平相對較低, 致使對沖成本偏高,從而令問題愈加複 雜。

Another option is risk mitigation through the use of hedging instruments. These are standard tools in developed economies but they are not widely used in developing countries where firms oftentimes fail to distinguish between hedging and speculation. Complicating the matter is the high cost of hedging in the developing countries because of the relatively undeveloped markets for these instruments.

The previous point suggests something for policy action. From the perspective of the nation’s policy maker, the development of markets for hedging instruments may go a longer way in helping businesses cope with exchange rate risks rather than trying to eradicate exchange rate volatility through a system of pegging to a basket of currencies.

方案之二是透過對沖工具降低風險。這 是發達國家的一種標準工具,但在發展中 國家的應用卻不是那麼廣泛,因為它們的

這是一種政策面上的回應。從一個國家 政策決策者的視角來看,就幫助企業應對 匯兌風險而言,發展對沖工具市場策略將 會比透過盯住一籃子貨幣體系來控制匯率 浮動走得更加長遠。


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Economy

貧與富的輪回 作者:Chris Champion

There is an old American saying:

弗蘭克爵士於1974年逝世,因為兩年前 跟長子克萊德鬧翻,於是把產業留給了次 子凯瑞。2005年凯瑞辭世,詹姆士子承父 業,一家老小生活富足。

“From shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations.” There is a more barbed modern version: “How do you make a small fortune? Give James Packer a large one.” 美國有句諺語叫「富不過三代」, 這句話的現代版是:「怎樣可以 發一筆小財?那就給詹姆士•帕克 一筆大財去敗成小財吧。」

James is Australia’s secondrichest man, worth about A$2 billion. He is the son of Kerry Packer, who for most of his life was Australia’s richest man, and grandson of Sir Frank Packer, who like Rupert Murdoch inherited a small Australian publishing business and turned it into a big one.

詹姆士•帕克,澳洲第二富豪,坐擁20億澳 元身家。乃父凯瑞•帕克,幾乎當了一輩子 澳洲首富。祖父弗蘭克•帕克爵士,從繼承 一家不起眼的印刷公司開始飛黃騰達,發 跡史頗似魯伯特•默多克。

When Sir Frank died in 1974, he left his fortune to his second son Kerry,

JAMES PACKER

having fallen out two years earlier with his oldest son, Clyde. When Kerry died in 2005, he left a comfortable living for the rest of his family, and left his fortune to his son James.

The shirt sleeves adage stems from the period made famous by the robber barons (the American ones, not the original ones — medieval German aristocrats who charged exorbitant and illegal tolls on ships using the Rhine). The American robber barons were poor immigrants with names like Rockefeller and Carnegie, who recognised opportunities in humble commodities. (Rockefeller, for example, took a sticky substance which oozed from the ground, and was used by native Americans as a laxative, and turned it into the oil industry.)

「富不過三代」這句話起源於那段以斂 財大亨而聞名的年代(我們說的是美國的 斂財大亨,可不是中世紀向萊茵河上的船 隻橫徵暴斂買路財的日耳曼貴族)。美國 的斂財大亨像洛克菲勒、卡耐基等等,原 先都是一文不名的移民,但他們都從不起

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

interests, philanthropy does not rate highly. He paid for some hospital wings to be built, and named after him. (they finally gave $5 million each), and he once donated $2.5 million to the ambulance service after suffering a heart attack and being rushed by ambulance to

gave $10 million to a children’s

He once

KERRY PACKER

眼的商品中尋到了發家致富的機會(比如 洛克菲勒遇到了一種從地下滲出的黏稠物 質,當地的原住民把它當作瀉藥,洛克菲 勒則把它變成了石油工業)。

America of the 1860s and 1870s spawned many industrial and banking tycoons, and not all of them deserve the negative connotations of the term robber baron. If the names Rockefeller and Carnegie, for example, remain prominent today it is arguably because John D Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie, having made their fortunes, then spent the rest of their lives and energy reinvesting it philanthropically.

1860到1870年代的美國,工業及金融大 亨雲集,但不是所有的人都只知斂財而為 富不仁。洛克菲勒和卡耐基的大名直到今 天還如雷貫耳,那是因為他們得來榮華富 貴之後,把畢生的時間和精力都傾注在慈 善事業上。

Not all did so, however. Many spent their lives simply wanting more, and it is interesting now to ponder that their names are no longer prominent, and wonder if there is a lesson here in understanding the financial wrecking ball which has been James Packer’s first four years in charge of the Packer dynasty dollars.

可惜不是人人如此。許多人一輩子只顧 獲取不知回報,註定難以青史留名。看看 小帕克接手帕克王朝的頭四年都幹了些 什麼,你也許能從這個敗家子身上學到一 些教訓。

On Kerry Packer’s long list of life ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

hospital in Sydney and then had fun bullying both the state and federal governments to do the same hospital.

在老帕克一長串的生活樂趣中,慈善是 排不到前面去的。他出錢建了幾間以他名 字命名的醫院,曾向悉尼一家兒童醫院捐 款1,000萬美元,隨後就拿這件事擠兌聯邦 和州政府(最後兩政府各捐500萬美元)。 有次他心臟病發作被救護車送到醫院挽回 一命,後來捐給這家急救中心250萬美元。

Kerry Packer’s other interests in life were gambling (he reportedly lost A$7 million in 1987 at a Sydney race meeting, won $24 million playing blackjack in Las Vegas in June 1995, and lost $28 million over three weeks at London casinos in 1999), polo and smoking cigarettes.

老帕克最大的樂趣就是賭博(據說 1978年他在悉尼一次馬賽上輸掉700萬澳 元,1995年6月在拉斯維加斯賭牌贏了 2,400萬美元,1999年在倫敦賭場三週內輸 掉2,800萬美元)、馬球和香煙。

He had firm opinions on many things in life, including the fact that universities were places which bred dope smokers and radical thinking. University, he decided, was no place for his son, and after high school James was sent instead for a year working on a family rural property, before being sent to Europe to learn about business under the care of a senior and trusted Packer business executive.

他對生活中的許多事情都有固執的看 法。比方說,他認為大學是癮君子和激進 思想的溫床,所以決定不讓兒子上大學, 高中畢業後就把小帕克送到鄉下一塊祖產 鍛煉一年,之後又送他到歐洲學習經商, 師從一位資深經理人,也是帕克家族的心 腹。

This, then, is the life legacy which James Packer inherited. The asset legacy was a little easier both to qualify and quantify. It was A$6.2 billion dollars.

這就是老帕克在生活上留給小帕克的全 部。而留給他的資產,不論是質素還是數 目都一目了然得多,大約是62億澳元。

What James Packer, who was 38 years old when his father died, has done with that large fortune in the past fours years is an astounding story of ventures gone wrong.

父親逝世時,小帕克38歲。過去四年 中,他對這筆巨大財富的處理,可以寫成


Economy

29

頭腦中時刻有危機意識。結果,當經濟危 機真的降臨時,他總能準備妥當,伺機 賺上幾筆。仿佛可以聽到他在說(其實 每個父親也會這樣說):做生意就要低 買高賣。

James Packer’s second move was to buy an A$50 million yacht, a $60 million private jet and a $38 million London apartment.

小帕克的第二個舉動是花5,000萬澳元買了 一艘遊艇,6,000萬美元買一架私人飛機,又 花3,800萬美元在倫敦置辦一套公寓。

His third move was into casinos. As if to say that his father’s ability to lose millions at casino tables was a mug’s game, James decided to gamble on casino ownership. He took on Macau and Las Vegas, plunging more than A4 billion into new and existing casino projects.

他的第三個舉動是開賭場。仿佛意識到 父親在賭桌前一擲千金是永遠賺不到錢的 徒勞之舉,小帕克決定開賭場試試運氣。 在澳門及拉斯維加斯,他豪擲40億澳元, 投資於新的和現有的賭場項目。

一段令人扼腕歎息的故事。

His first move was to sell the core family media empire, an empire which three generations before him had built. Goodbye to magazines, newspapers and television. Hello to casinos.

prepared and poised to make some killings. You can almost hear him saying that which, surely, every father tells their offspring at some point: buy when the market is low, sell when it is high. 老帕克是一個謹慎的商人,思想保守,

He did all this at the absolute peak of the market. He lost pretty much the lot. If Kerry was alive today, he would see the ruins of his son’s fortune, and he would sense a good deal.

所有這一切都趕在了市場的最高位,這 讓他虧了不少錢。眼見大把財富在兒子手 上灰飛煙滅,老帕克泉下有知,不知作何 感想?

他的第一個舉動就是賣掉之前 三代人創建的傳媒帝國,也是家 族的核心。揮別雜誌、報章和電 視,投身博彩業。

Kerry Packer had always been cautious in business, of the school convinced that economic misery was permanently imminent. One result was that, when economic misery did come around in the fiscal cycle of things, he was generally

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

China’s

Dollar Dilemma 作者/by Michael Wilson

“The dollar is our currency and your problem.” Well, U.S. Treasury

Secretary John Connolly might have been able to get away with a blunt one-liner like that back in 1973, when he and his boss Richard Nixon could still direct the capitalist world’s fiscal economy from the comfort of their desks in Washington. But it’s debatable how such straightforward arrogance would go down these days, now that America is struggling not just with the world’s biggest debts and the worst economic downturn in 70 years, but also with new and unfamiliar competition for the greenback - the euro, the resurgent gold price, and, perhaps soon, the Chinese yuan. The dollar is down sharply - and, this time, it’s America’s problem too.

1973 年,時任美國財長約翰 • 康納利曾 放言 : 「美元是我們的貨幣,卻是你們的問 題。」遙想當年,康氏還能和他的老闆尼 克松總統坐在華盛頓舒適的辦公桌前,自 如揮舞資本主義世界的財政經濟指揮棒。 然而時移世易,今天的美國已不復當年 之勇——全球頭號債務國、 七十年不遇的經濟衰退,雪 上加霜的是,美元正在經 歷前所未有的危機,它的 對手有歐元,有飆升的金 價,也許用不了多久,中 國的人民幣也會加入進來。 美元正在急劇貶值,而這一次,它也成了 美國的問題。

But it’s debatable how such straightforward arrogance would go down these days, now that America is struggling

Everywhere, oil producers and miners are pricing more of their contracts in euros, yen, and even Special Drawing Rights. Worldwide, more corporate bonds are being issued in euros than in dollars. China itself has been pushing for the creation of a new global reserve currency that will weaken the dollar’s dominance in debt negotiations, and which ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

元大關,並在千元之上形成了新的 平台……

In short, the global fiscal agenda is shifting uncomfortably away from Washington’s control. But, for China in particular, the may reduce the demand for dollars from dilemma goes further. Should the yuan central banks. And the gold price has simply follow the dollar down, or is this established a new platform above the the moment for an upward shift in its critical $1,000 ceiling... valuation? And is there any way that we 在世界各地,石油生產商及礦產商紛紛 get out of this ghastly situation without 開始用歐元、日元甚至是特別提款權來結 starting a dollar stampede, which would 算合同。越來越多的公司債券以歐元發行, send not just America but the whole 美元受到冷落。中國在熱心推動創造一種 global economy into chaos? 新的全球儲備貨幣,以削弱美元在債務談 判中的統治地位,及減少中央銀行對美元 的需求。與此同時,黃金價格已經突破千

總之,全球的財政政策正在脫離華盛頓 的掌控,卻也由此產生了進退兩難的困境, 對中國而言尤為如此。人民幣應該跟隨美


Economy 元貶值,抑或趁機升值?有沒有辦法走出 困境,又不致美元崩潰繼而衝擊美國乃至 整個世界的經濟?

That, at least, is simply not going to happen, for many different reasons. The most important being that the dollar accounts for almost two thirds of the world’s foreign exchange reserves, and that a major dollar collapse would be too ruinous to contemplate. China alone is currently holding around US$1.4 trillion of dollar assets - enough, one would think, to present a powerful argument for the preservation of the greenback as an international medium of exchange. Besides, the torrential rate of Washington’s new bond issues would seem to indicate that nothing much has changed yet. As long as the U.S. Government can still find buyers for its ten-year bond issues with a 3.4% coupon, and for its 30year paper at 4.2%, it’s clear that the markets are not expecting anything too ruinous from either the forex markets or the inflation front.

當然,這些事情不會說發生就發生,原 因有許多,最重要的是美元幾 乎佔世界外匯儲備的三分 之二,美元一旦崩潰, 後果不堪設想。現在, 單是中國就持有約 1.4 萬億美元的美 元資產,只此一條, 就有足夠理由去捍 衛美元作為國際貨 幣的地位。況且, 華盛頓依舊在熱火 朝天地發行債券,只 要美國政府能找到買家 去購買它的十年期債券(息 率 3.4%)和 30 年期債券(息率 4.2%),那就不必擔心外匯市場或者是通 脹方面會有什麼災難發生。

Why the Dollar Needs to Depreciate. And What Happens Next… 美元為何貶值?今後何去何從? And yet, by any normal standards, the dollar is carrying such a fatal volume of fiscal liability that it can hardly fail to go lower. It’s bad enough that the US national debt is now breaking through the $12 trillion mark, and that US private debt is heading toward $18 trillion. But the combined additional cost of

31

The U.S. Federal Reserve building

Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy and the state of the US economy

unfunded liabilities under the social security, medicare and prescription drug programmes in the U.S. have already extended the total burden to $108 trillion, according to independent statisticians in the States - easily dwarfing the country’s total asset value, which is often reckoned at around $75

promptly and probably very sharply, so as to compensate foreign investors for the losses they would suffer on their U.S. investments. Any failure to do this would indeed turn the incipient exodus into the feared stampede. The trouble is, sharply higher bank rates would quickly plunge America into a double crisis - because higher borrow-

China alone is currently holding around US$1.4 trillion of dollar assets - enough, to present a powerful argument for the preservation of the US dollar trillion. If correct, that would suggest an asset gap equivalent to $100,000 for every person in the country.

平心而論,美元肩負的財政責任可謂茲 事體大,不容閃失。然而糟糕的是,現 在美國的國債已經突破 12 萬億美元,整 個國家的私人債務逼近 18 萬億美元。據 國內的獨立統計機構統計,算上社會保 障、醫療和處方藥物計劃下尚無資金準 備的負債所產生的額外成本,美國的債 務總額已經達到 108 萬億美元,而舉全 國之力,美國的資產總值也不過才 75 萬 億美元。假如沒錯的話,那麼把資產缺 口平攤到每個美國人身上,大約有 10 萬 美元。

The Federal Reserve’s logical response to any currency exodus would of course be to lift U.S. interest rates very

ing costs would soon translate into less US investment, more insolvencies and a shocking slump in demand whose effects would reverberate around the world for a decade. The only sane course, then, is to give in and let the dollar weaken gently so that other currencies strengthen. Isn’t it?

每當資金撤離,聯儲局必然以迅速甚 至是急劇的加息應對之,藉以彌補外國 投資者在美國投資所蒙受的損失。如果 不這樣做,那麼一開始的撤離很可能演 變成奪路而逃。問題是,大幅上調銀行 利率很快使美國陷入雙重危機——隨著 借貸成本上升,不久後對美投資就會減 少,破產增多,需求驟降,其影響將長 期困擾世界。看來唯一理智的辦法就是 放手讓美元緩慢貶值,好讓其他貨幣升 值。這一招能奏效嗎?

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Gold, then? 黃金如何? The gold bugs have been waiting for this moment for years. The recent sharp rise in the bullion price is simply a logical result of the weak dollar, they say. Not just because it’s locked into an inverse relationship with the greenback, but because the dollar slide will engender fear among central banks (and others) that the era of super-strong fiat currencies might indeed be nearing an end, and that filling their vaults with bullion is bound to seem more and more attractive. When confidence in money crumples, the yellow metal will come into its own.

of the investment market. (It certainly isn’t down to jewellery demand, which is falling.) Either way, for the time being, we are back with the awkward fact that the weaker dollar is bound to put some other currencies on the spot.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar has increased gold bullion prices

值的人民幣將會 使中國進口的石 油及礦石更加昂 貴,通脹壓力激 增。為了避免這 一幕成為現實, 北京應否改弦更 張,不再緊盯美 元而放手人民幣 升值?

Contrary to what some western academics are claiming, an upward shift could be achieved 這樣的論調能成真嗎?也許有可能,但 perfectly well with the existing policy le這並非故事的全部。金價暴漲的另一原因 vers; there would be no need for full con是西方國家的交易所交易基金及代理黃金 力挺黃金的人們等待此刻已經很久了, vertibility just yet. Certainly, the west’s 投資快速增長,事實上,這不過是因為投 他們說近期金價的飆升是美元貶值的必然 preferred technique, of raising lending 資市場規模的擴大,而提高了黃金的表面 結果,不單是黃金與美元向來背道而馳, rates to make the currency more attrac價值。(這還沒算上正在下降的珠寶需求。) tive, would create as many problems 更是因為美元的衰落讓中央銀行(還有其 他人)開始擔心超級貨幣的時代就要終結, 不管怎樣,現在我們得承認一個尷尬的事 for China as it solved. It would not just 實,那就是美元的沉淪必然伴隨著其他一 而黃金卻越發閃現誘人光芒。當鈔票失寵 choke off this year’s housing boom; it 些貨幣的興起。 的時候,便是黃金捲土重來之際。 would cause severe hardship to Chinese Can the doom-mongers be right? Posmanufacturers who are already struggling Which Way for the Yuan? sibly, but it seems pretty doubtful that to maintain their export volumes. And they’re telling the whole story. An equally 人民幣是進是退? finally, it would endanger the booming likely cause for the higher gold price Few more so than the yuan, which stock market. is the rapid growth of exchange traded has hitherto been carefully maintained 跟西方一些學者的論斷相反,人民幣升 值僅靠現有的政策槓桿就足矣,根本不必 funds and proxy gold investments in the within a controlled range of the dollar. 急於實現可全面兌換。西方慣用的手段, west, which have boosted the paper value (Somewhat below the level that the free 比如提高貸款利率來增加貨幣的吸引力, of bullion simply by expanding the size market would have decided - much to 這種做法用在中國只會適得其反,它固然 the annoyance of America, which has constantly demanded a stronger yuan 能抑制今年的樓市泡沫,卻也會讓那些疲 於維持出口量的中國製造商們雪上加霜。 to reduce its vast trade deficit.) 最後一點,它將危及股票市場的繁榮。 The loose dollar link has worked well for China’s Except that it probably wouldn’t. A exporters, which have stronger yuan would reinforce China’s rarely needed to worry attractiveness as an investment centre by about Americans being able enhancing its value. It wouldn’t impact to afford their goods. But what on ordinary people except by making the happens if Beijing decides to let imported goods they buy more affordthe currency follow the dollar? A able, which should be good for inflation. sharply weaker yuan would make It would certainly cost export jobs, but China’s oil and mineral imports the domestic benefits would outweigh the more expensive, and it would also disadvantages. Or so we might hope. But increase inflationary pressures. So the truth is, nobody can be absolutely sure should Beijing change its policy and of which way it would go. And this time, relax the peg, to let the yuan rise? the stakes are higher than at any time in 迄今為止,人民幣對美元的匯率一直被 China’s history. 小心翼翼地維持在可控範圍內波動。(按 自由市場的理論,人民幣是被低估了。這 讓美國頗為惱火,所以一直敦促人民幣升 值來縮小美國的龐大貿易赤字。)放鬆與 美元之間的聯繫,這對中國的出口商很 有好處,讓他們不必擔心美國人買不起 他們的商品。但是,如果北京決定讓人民 幣緊跟美元將會怎樣呢?到那時,急劇貶

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

如果沒有上述的問題,人民幣升值未嘗 不是好事,那將增加中國作為投資中心的 魅力。對普通百姓來說,進口商品將因人 民幣升值變得更加便宜,有助控制通脹。 出口行業的就業肯定會受影響,但考慮到 對國內的好處,結果是得大於失。看上去 很美,但未來究竟是進是退,沒人能夠預知。 這將是中國人前所未有的一次大賭注。


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China:

Opening Digital Doors? 中國:

作者/by Steve Lunt

開啟數字 化之門 photograph © Xinhua News Agency

The world’s biggest media

companies have just sent their leaders to Beijing for the first ever ‘World Media Summit’. This unprecedented three-day event acted as a magnet for multimedia moguls, attracting 300 top-level executives from over 170 of the world’s oldest and newest media providers – from paper publishers to web pioneers. 各大傳媒公司紛紛派出高管參加第一屆 「世界媒體峰會」 ,這是一次多媒體業界的風 雲際會,為期三天的盛會吸引了三百多位高 管,他們來自全球 170 多家傳媒公司,既有 老字號的新聞出版社,亦有互聯網新銳。

With a theme of “Co-operation, Action, Win-Win and Development”, the media chiefs gathered to share insights,

promote international co-operation, and discuss the challenges of steering their amorphous industry through the economic storm – by making the best use of rapidly developing digital technology. They say we’re experiencing complicated, profound changes: economic globalization, information explosions, and the prevalence of new communication technologies. But the media bosses believe these elements also provide great opportunities for developing global media coverage, amid the increasing diversity and integration of world cultures.

本著「合作,應對, 共贏,發展」的峰會 主題,媒體大亨們聚 首一堂,各抒己見, 共促國際合作,探討 運用日新月異的數字 技術,駕馭這個無形 產業安度經濟風暴。 他們說經濟全球化, 資訊爆炸還有新型通 訊技術的普及,正在 給行業帶來複雜而深遠的變化。同時他們 也相信,這些將會提供難得的機遇,讓媒 體隨著世界文化的日益多樣與融合,覆蓋 到世界的每個角落

Chairman and CEO of News Corporation, Rupert Murdoch, asked Beijing to “open its digital door” and improve NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


34

Economy photograph © Xinhua News Agency

foreign media access to mainland markets. He said: “The embrace of the digital is as vital to China today as its decision 30 years ago to take its place in the global economy”. Murdoch believed Chinese media companies had an opportunity to expand their international influence and revenues in this era of information, but only if their government continued to protect intellectual property rights (IPR) and create a fairer digital market: “There is no doubt that the Chinese government recognizes this problem (IPR protection), but has difficulty ensuring that regulations are observed across the nation”.

新聞集團董事長兼行政總裁默多克呼籲 北京「開啟數字化之門」,放寬外國傳媒 進入內地市場的渠道。他說 : 「擁抱數字 化對於今日中國來說至關重要,正如 30 年前中國決定在世界舞台上佔有一席之地 那樣。」 默多克相信只要中國政府繼續保 護知識產權,創造更加公平的數字化市場, 那麼中國的傳媒公司就有機會在這個資訊 時代提高自己的國際影響力和經營業績。 「毫無疑問中國政府已經意識到這個問題 (知識產權保護),難就難在把法律法規貫 徹到全國。」

Murdoch said the challenge of fusing past and present was real for media companies, and for China: “Modern China has a tremendous stake in a shared digital future, because its own wealth and success will depend on how well it responds to the challenges, nationally and internationally.”

默多克說,將過 去與現在融合的挑 戰對於媒體公司來 說是真真切切的, 對於中國來說亦是 如此 : 「數字化的未 來對於現代中國來 說至關重要,因為 它本身的財富和成 功將取決於它如何 應對國際和國內的 諸多挑戰。」

photograph © Xinhua News Agency

Reuters’ editor-in-chief David Schlesinger called on China to improve access for foreign journalists, and to improve the disclosure of economic data by not leaking it to insiders before official announcements. He stressed the media’s role in promoting a healthy market economy, by providing transparency against the backdrop of a global financial crisis. He said: ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

“Efficiently informed and transparent financial markets are also healthy, sound, orderly and internationally competitive financial markets. These were the lessons of the 1997 Asian crisis”.

路透社主編史進德呼籲中國放寬對外國記 者的限制,改進信息披露工作,不要在官方 宣佈之前就把經濟數據透露給內部人士。他 強調媒體的作用是在全球金融危機的背景下 增強透明度,從而促進健康的市場經濟。他 說: 「有效地知情而透明的金融市場才是健 康,穩健,有序且具有國際競爭力的金融市 場,這是 1997 年亞洲危機的教訓。 」

the social stability that depends upon economic success.

對於目前的經濟衰退,史進德說 : 「21 世 紀初的這場金融危機再次證明了媒體的重 要作用,那就是為健康的市場經濟提供必 要的透明度。」他表示,若要實現知情和透 明的金融市場的目標,以及建立在經濟成 就基礎上的社會安定,財經媒體的角色尤 為關鍵。

Schlesinger noted China was becoming increasingly transparent compared with the past; he welcomed the initiatives of Chinese government departments, which have started using the web to release informast tion through online press releases: “Today we report on China’s economy with the same intensity and professionalism —David Schlesinger, Reuters Editor-in-Chief as we report on any G7 economy”. Schlesinger said journalism at its best is On the current recession, Schlesinger a mirror, reflecting to society a true and said: “The financial crisis of the beginning of the 21st century has proven again brutally honest picture of what is going on: “When we fail at that, when our that the media’s role in providing the picture is not clear or at all distorted, we transparency necessary for a healthy deserve to be criticized. We must strive to market economy is vital”. He said the be that perfect mirror”. role of financial media was central to 史進德指出,中國的透明度跟過去相比 delivering the objectives of informed and 日益提高,他歡迎中國政府部門的創新精 transparent financial markets, as well as

“The financial crisis of the beginning of the 21 century has proven again that the media’s role in providing the transparency necessary for a healthy market economy is vital”


Economy

35

photograph © Xinhua News Agency

相稱的傳播能力,已經成為一項十分緊 迫的戰略任務。」

At the Summit, Chinese President Hu Jintao said China would “safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of foreign news organizations and reporters, and facilitate foreign media coverage of China in accordance with China’s laws and regulations.” He called on foreign media to “deepen the world’s understanding of China.”

在本次峰會上,中國國家主席胡錦濤說 中國將「依照中國的法律法規保障外國新 聞機構和記者的合法權利與權益,為外國 媒體在華從事採訪報道業務提供便利」。他 呼籲外國媒體「加深世界對中國的理解。」

Li Changchun (L5, front), a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, poses with heads of some media organizations attending the World Media Summit, in Beijing, capital of China, Oct. 9, 2009

神,比如利用網絡在網上發佈新聞消息 : 「今天我們對中國經濟的報道密度和專業 性,絲毫不亞於對 G7 中任何一個經濟體的 報道。」史進德說,好的新聞應該是一面鏡 子,把社會投射在真實而淋漓盡致的畫卷 上: 「如果我們的畫卷是模糊甚至是扭曲的, 那是我們的失敗,理應受到批評。我們必 須全力做好這面鏡子。」

match our international status,” he wrote. “Nowadays, nations which have more advanced skills and better capability in communications will be more influential in the world and can spread their values further.”

Senior Communist Party of China (CPC) leader Li Changchun said the government had been supporting Chinese media by enhancing co-operation with foreign counterparts in news, human resources, information technologies and business development.

中共中央政治局常委李長春表示,政府 支持國內媒體加強與外國同行在新聞,人 力資源,資訊科技和商業發展上的合作。

Director of the BBC’s Global News division, Richard Sambrook, said they 就在西方傳媒巨頭爭相進入中國之際, hoped to tighten their partnerships with 北京也在提高其對外的聲音。政府已撥 Chinese peers. The British broadcasters 款 40 億美元,讓國營廣播公司中央電 While western media bosses called have reinforced their position in China by 視台和官方的新華通訊社擴大全球覆蓋 for greater access in China, Beijing is co-producing a well-received natural his面。中央電視台現已開設法語,西班牙 promoting its voice abroad. The governtory series – ‘Beautiful China’, also known 語,俄語及阿拉伯語頻道;官方報紙《中 in the UK as ‘Wild China’ – with Chinese ment has set aside more than $4 billion 國日報》有了美國版 ;宣揚民族主義的 to expand the global reach of its stateTV programme makers. Sambrook said: 《環球時報》發行了英 run broadcaster CCTV and the official “BeauXinhua News Agency. CCTV has created 文版。1月份,中央宣傳 tiful French, SpanChina ish, Russian and the and Arabic coverage channels; of the the official Beijing China Daily Olymnewspaper is pics have publishing a shown U.S. edi– when tion; and the China —Richard Sambrook, BBC Global News Director Global Times, opens a nationalist up, the tabloid, has launched an English-language 部部長劉雲山在黨刊《求是》雜誌上提 world is reminded that there are many as出全球傳媒戰略。他寫道 : 「當今時代, pects of China waiting to be discovered”. version. In January, Liu Yunshan, head 誰的傳播手段先進,傳播能力強大,誰 of the Communist Party’s Propaganda 英國廣播公司全球新聞總裁理查德 • 山 的文化理念和價值觀念就能更廣泛地流 姆布魯克表示,希望加強與中國同行的合 Department, laid out the global media 傳,誰就能更有力地影響世界。構建覆 作。英國廣播公司與中國電視製片機構共 strategy in Qiu Shi, a CCP magazine. “It 蓋廣泛,技術先進的現代傳播體系,形 同拍攝了自然歷史系列片—《美麗中國》 (在 has become an urgent strategic task for 英國名為「Wild China」),獲得良好反響, us to make our communication capability 成與我國經濟社會發展水平和國際地位

“Beautiful China and the coverage of the Beijing Olympics have shown – when China opens up, the world is reminded that there are many aspects of China waiting to be discovered”

photograph © Xinhua News Agency

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photograph © Xinhua News Agency

“The global economic downturn seems to have dealt a harder blow to old, traditional media”

ing the creators of content”.

默多克說全球媒體都在「順 從」那些「老頑固」的論調, 認為互聯網上的所有新聞都 該是免費的,他又稱「內容的 價值在過去十年裏起伏不定, —Satoshi Ishikawa, Kyodo News President 而我們卻進入另一個重要時 期,那就是設備製造商再一次 追著內容製造商尋求內容」。 conventional media responses to the

internet as being too often “inchoate”, and “impotent”. He said the world’s media organizations should “adapt and adopt” as they were confronted by “unprecedented change and challenge” 也鞏固了其在中國的地位。山姆布魯克說: amid a digital revolution: “Media com「如同《美麗中國》和北京奧運會報道已經 panies know that if you do not respond 顯示的,中國一旦開放了,世界就想起中 intelligently and creatively to the digital 國有很多方面等待發掘。」 challenge, your future will be bleak Sambrook also noted “how a fuller indeed”. airing of the views of the Chinese people 默多克在演講中批評說,很多時候傳統 媒體對於互聯網的應對是「頗不成熟的」。 on the big global forces that are shaping 他說,全世界的傳媒機構應該「適應和應 our world will give us new and fascinat對」數字化革命所帶來的「前所未有的變 ing perspectives on the full gamut of 「媒體如果不去應對 human experience from which we can all 化與挑戰」。他表示 : 現在的挑戰,那麼你們的未來將會是暗淡 benefit”. 他又指 : 「更加全面地展示中國人民對影 響世界的巨大力量持有什麼看法,將給予 我們驚人的新視角,讓我們全方位認識人 類的體驗,讓所有人從中獲益。」

President Satoshi Ishikawa, of Japan’s Kyodo News, appreciated the Chinese government’s moves towards a policy of openness allowing foreign media organizations to report major news stories, such as the Beijing Olympics and the Sichuan earthquake.

無光的。」

Murdoch also said global media had been “submissive”, as the “flat-earthers” insisted that all news content on the internet should be free, adding that “the value of content has been volatile in the past decade, but we are entering another decisive phase in which device makers are again court-

Ishikawa believed that globalization and progress in communications technology had put traditional paper-based media on the defensive – while allowing internet search businesses to prosper, and enabling hand-held devices to dominate the media market. He said the global economic downturn seems to have dealt a harder blow to old, traditional media.

石川聰認為,隨著全球化和通訊技術的 突飛猛進,以紙張為主體的傳統的媒體 正處於守勢,而互聯網搜索業務異軍突 起,建立在最尖端技術之上的智能手機 及移動終端正風靡媒體市場。他說,全 球經濟不景氣對原有的傳統媒體業務造 成了很大打擊。

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Google 負責大中華區營運的副總裁劉允 表示,新技術使商業,娛樂,廣告商及傳 統出版商都面臨改變。

The internet’s profound impact on our lives and businesses is beyond doubt. According to Google, two billion people now search information online every day; and 100 billion (non-spam) emails and instant messages are sent daily.

互聯網無疑給我們的生活和商業都帶來 了深遠的影響。據 Google 統計,現在每 天有 20 億人在線搜索資料,每天發送的 電子郵件(並非垃圾郵件)和即時訊息多 達 1,000 億。

Following China’s lead, the World Media Summit will be regularly hosted by media organizations in their home countries.

繼中國之後,世界媒體峰會將定期在各 大媒體機構的所在國舉行。|AT| Chinese President Hu Jintao (right) with Rupert Murdoch of News Corp. The President affirmed in the Summit that China will open doors to foreign media in accordance to China’s laws and regulations

日本共同社社長石川聰讚賞中國政府允 許外國媒體參與報道重大新聞事件(如北 京奧運,四川地震)的開明之舉。

In his speech, Murdoch also criticized

Google’s corporate vice president of Greater China Operations, John Liu, said business, entertainment, advertisers and traditional publishers would all face changes, driven by new technologies.

photograph © Xinhua News Agency


Economy

37

Doing Business in

Vietnam 營商在越南

For Asian Tiger Investor Report 1009 作者/By David Bowden

Don’t be surprised in a communist

country such as Vietnam to encounter red tape – it’s part and parcel of the communist world. However, things have changed markedly over the past decade and doing business here is a lot easier than it once was.

在越南這樣的共產國家遇到官僚主義不足 為怪,那是共產世界的通病。然而最近十 年有了很大改觀,在越南做生意不再越來 「越難」。

This has not escaped many large international companies who now see Vietnam as an important location to open shop to access its large pool of workers, and try to reach the 86 million consumers within the country. Some industry players see Vietnam as being a better investment proposition than China and the country is now attracting more manufacturers and foreign capital.

許多跨國巨頭現在都把越南視為一個重 要據點,紛紛在此開店設廠,正是看中該

國豐富的勞動力資源,還有多達8,600萬人 口的大市場。更有行家覺得越南是一個比 中國更好的投資題材,而這個國家正在吸 引越來越多的廠商和外資。

Its economic growth rates are also impressive and over the past decade it has been one of the world’s fastest growing economies. In 2008, the economy expanded by 6.2% (which was one of the lowest annual figures over the past decade) but this was down on the 2007 figure of 8.5%. In May this year, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung predicted a growth rate of just 5% due to the global economic slowdown.

越南的經濟發展速度同樣驚人,過去十 年是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。2008 年經濟增長6.2%(這是十年來的最低增 速),而2007年則有8.5%。今年5月,阮晉 勇總理預測說,受環球經濟衰退影響,今 年經濟增長率可能只有5%。

The Government’s economic stimulus package and a ‘Vietnamese use Vietnamese products’ campaign have

seen the industry and trade sector of the economy increase by 10% monthly since July 2009, according to Government figures. The Government has provided loans with subsidised interest rates for farmers to purchase new equipment and construction materials. The garment and textile sector has also increased output with an emphasis on meeting increased domestic demand.

在政府的經濟刺激計劃和「國人用國 貨」的宣傳運動下,政府統計顯示,自從 2009年7月以來,工業和貿易部門每月均能 增長10%。政府還為農戶提供貼息貸款購置 新設備和建材,而在內需上升帶動下,紡 織和服裝業生產亦有增加。

An October report by the Standard Chartered Bank revised upwards its three year economic outlook for the country based upon the nation weathering the economic downturn better than expected. It also made reference to the resilient domestic demand and the Government’s proactive fiscal policies as reasons to NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

adjust its predicted growth rate to 4.9% for 2009, 7.7% for 2010 and 7.2% in 2011.

10月份渣打銀行在一份報告中上調了未 來三年越南的經濟展望,理由是該國比預 期更好地抵禦了經濟衰退,再加上內需強 勁和未雨綢繆的財政政策,該行把2009 年、2010年和2011年的預測增長率分別調 整到4.9%、7.7%和7.2%。

However, a rising inflation rate is a concern for some investors. The rate for 2008 was 23% and one of the highest in the world. Things slowed down markedly due to lower transportation and telecommunication charges and by May 2009, the Government was predicting a figure for the year of around 6%.

然而,不斷上升的通脹率卻是投資者的 心病。2008年越南通脹率達23%,是世界上 通脹最嚴重的國家之一。後來隨著交通和 電訊投資的減少,通脹明顯緩和,今年5月 政府預測全年通脹率大概在6%上下。

The report by the Standard Chartered Bank made reference to these emerging risks in the economy and most notably, an imbalance between domestic strength and external weakness. It also commented that while the inflation rate had been partly reined in, the aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus is creating inflationary expectations which could be self-fulfilling. While the Bank doesn’t expect big increases in most commodities in the near future, it notes that any sharp increase could trigger further deterioration in the trade deficit (US$18 billion in 2008) and inflation. The Bank also reports that there are few signs of exports improving.

投資者看中越南的潛力並願意投資於越南。

Opportunities and Threats 機遇和挑戰 Those who favour Vietnam as a place to invest cite its demographics as one of the major factors – a large number of consumers and a low per capita income of around US$900 per annum (one of the region’s lowest but higher than neighbouring Cambodia and Laos). While coming from a low base, there is a huge upside as the country grows and develops and increasingly moves from being an agricultural-based economy to a manufacturing one.

from 14,000 in 1990 to less than 4,000 today and the figure is continually going down. Concurrently the figure is reversed for private companies with the figures going from something in the order of 100 in 2000 to over 200,000 today.

渣打銀行的報告提及了這些新出現的經 濟風險,尤其是強勁的內需與疲弱的外貿 所形成的反差。該行並指,儘管通脹有所 收斂,可是擴張性的財政和貨幣刺激政策 正在加重通脹預期。該行不認為大宗商品 價格近期內會普遍大幅上漲,但強調說, 一旦大宗商品價格急劇攀升,勢必導致越 南貿易赤字(2008年:180億美元)和通脹 形勢進一步惡化。與此同時,該行稱出口 有好轉跡象。

人口是吸引外商投資越南的主要因素之 一。越南擁有龐大的消費者群體,但人均 年收入僅有900美元(處於整個地區的最 低水平,只比鄰國柬埔寨和老撾高一些) ,雖然基數很低,但隨著越南從農業經濟 向製造業經濟的轉型,未來將有巨大的上 升潛力和發展空間。

For investors who like the potential of Vietnam many list its low-cost production, the increasing Government commitment to promoting the private sector and the privatisation of stateowned enterprises as a reason to invest in Vietnam.

低廉的生產成本,政府大力促進私營經濟 的決心,以及國有企業的私有化,使得許多 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

State-owned enterprises have declined

國營企業從1990年的一萬四千家減少到 今天的不到四千家,而且還在不斷減少。 與此同時,私營企業卻如雨後春筍般湧 現,從2000年的一百家增加到今天的二十 萬家。

The World Bank Country Manager for Vietnam, Ms. Victoria Kwakwa was recently reported as saying

Vietnam was coping with the economic downturn better than some other countries

(Vietnam News June 8, 2009).

However, she stressed the need to reduce problems of infrastructure within the country.

據報道,世界銀行駐越經理維多利亞•科 瓦科瓦女士近日表示,越南應對經濟下滑


Economy

的表現比其他一些國家來得好(2009年6 月8日《越南新聞報》),但她強調越南 的基礎設施問題亟待解決。

Speaking at the same time at the Vietnam Business Forum, Alain Cany, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Eurocham) also commented that infrastructure was a challenge -- especially the nation’s poor port facilities. Slow infrastructural growth and logistics support are cited by several sources as threatening current and future foreign direct investment.

歐盟商會駐越主席簡毅倫在「越南商務 論壇」上說道,基礎建設尤其是薄弱的港 口設施是一個挑戰。緩慢的基建發展和物 流支持被稱為是威脅當前和日後外商直接 投資的隱患。

Vietnam News also reported that complex administrative procedures and inconsistent and poor l y coordinated efforts by the authorities in

implementing the laws and regulations were also seen as a hindrance to

business growth,

according to Huynh Van Minh, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City

39

Business Association.

《越南新聞報》引述胡志明市商會會 長Huynh Van Minh報道說,政府機關繁 瑣的行政手續,以及執法時前後不一、 各行其是的現象,同樣是商業發展的絆 腳石。

Fund Investment 基金投資 An alternative to investing directly in Vietnam is to invest via managed funds, and there are at least 50 funds worldwide from which to choose. In 2008, ATF Kearney ranked Vietnam as the number one emerging market in terms of its retail attractiveness.

基金投資是對越投資的直接渠道之 一,現在全世界有50多支這樣的基金可 供選擇。2008年,科爾尼公司把越南評 為零售吸引力第一的新興市場。

Some funds are managed within the country while others are externally managed by companies such as Deutsche Bank (DWS Vietnam Fund), Jardine Fleming ( JF Vietnam Opportunities Fund) and Prudential Investment Fund Management (Vietnam Segregated Portfolio Fund).

這些基金有的是在越南國內管理,有 的則在國外管理,基金管理公司有德意 志銀行(德銀越南基金)、怡富公司( 怡富越南機遇基金)和保誠投資基金管 理公司(越南獨立投資組合基金)等。

Deutsche Bank launched its closedend fund in December 2006 with

an authorised share capital of US$500 million but, like other funds, experienced an over exuberant market in 2007 as well as turbulent times due to the global economic meltdown. Vietnam’s equity market saw a decline of 57% in the first six months of 2008.

德意志銀行於2006年12月推出法定股本 為五億美元的封閉式基金,跟其他基金一 樣經歷了2007年市場的紅火,也遭遇了環 球經濟衰退帶來的寒冬。2008年前六個 月,越南股市暴跌57%。

While the DWS Fund has dipped substantially since its inception (-42.31% to the end of August) it has shown a marked turnaround in recent months, and the fund managers are cautiously optimistic in the short term but very optimistic for the long term. They see there are good current opportunities to invest in a market which has strong investment fundamentals.

德銀基金一度大幅縮水(截至8月末下 跌42.31%) ,最近幾個月開始恢復元 氣,基金經理對短期前景審慎樂觀,但十 分看好長期前景,認為現在是投資於這個 基本面穩固的市場的良機。

With its large domestic market and low-cost production base, Vietnam is one of the emerging Asian tigers to consider as an investment opportunity in the coming years.

憑藉巨大的國內市場和低成本的生產基 礎,越南正成為新興的亞洲小虎之一,未 來數年投資機遇不可小覷。|AT|

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


40

Economy

The Doi Moi Experience Vietnam’s Emergence from the Ravages of War

作者/by Jack Dixon

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


Economy

as a pyrrhic victory – one that inflicted the heaviest of casualties on both sides and left the entire nation in utter devastation, a no-win situation at all.

A hot spot then and still a hot

spot now – that’s Vietnam. The Southeast Asian nation once called French Indochina saw some of the most brutal and destructive civil strife in this corner of the globe, a protracted 21-year war between the Communists of the North and the Capitalists of the South, which was militarily backed by the United States of America. The Northerners finally overran the southern capital of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City) to achieve what can only be best described

無論在戰爭年代還是戰後和平發展時期, 越南始終是全球矚目的焦點。這個東南亞 國家曾被稱為法屬印度支那,曾飽受歷史 上最殘酷且最破壞性的內戰,北方的共產 主義政權與得到美國軍事支持的南方資本 主義政權曾進行曠日持久的戰爭,長達 21 年。最終,北方軍隊攻破南部首都西貢(現 為胡志明市),獲得代價巨大的勝利, 交戰雙方均傷亡慘重,整個國家 淪為焦土,兩敗俱傷。

Today, however, Vietnam is again a hot spot… of the economic kind – the top priority market for global investors outside of the socalled BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China. In fact, it was no less than Lord Mandelson, UK Secretary of State, who announced the findings of the investment consultancy firm UK Trade & Investment (UKTI) in its report, “Survive and Prosper: emerging markets in the global recession”. Lord Mandelson said that Vietnam, for the second year in a row, has been ranked first to best the United Arab Emirates and Mexico, with five of the top ten being in Asia. The report cited Vietnam’s record since 1986 of a gross domestic product (GDP) growing impressively, increasing two-fold every ten years, and its people’s income levels multiplying ten times.

如今,越南在經濟領域再次成為全球矚 目的焦點,除金磚四國-巴西、俄羅斯、 印度和中國外,這裏成為全球投資者的首 選市場。實際上,英國國務大臣曼德爾森 勳爵(Lord Mandelson)曾公佈投資諮詢 公司 UK Trade & Investment (UKTI) 在 報告《生存與繁榮 :全球衰退中的新興市 場》中的發現。曼德爾森勳爵表示,越南 的投資吸引力已連續兩年位居榜首,領先 阿聯酋和墨西哥,在前十大最具投資吸引 力的國家中,有五個是亞洲國家。報告指 出,越南的國內生產總值(GDP)自 1986 年以來一直保持顯著增長,每十年增加兩 倍,人均收入水平增長十倍。

41

A government agency that provides consultancy services to UK-based companies seeking to invest abroad, the UKTI produces the report from the results of a worldwide survey of 540 top company executives in 19 business sectors. Its primary finding was an overall preference of 45 percent of total respondents for China as an investment destination over the next year and beyond, just slightly better than India’s 43 percent. Lord Mandelson said: “Many emerging markets are outperforming developed economies and are expected to grow strongly for years to come. The global recession was a wakeup call for companies to diversify their export base and seek out new opportunities in the emerging world. We are encouraging UK business to look abroad and find new business in these exciting new markets”. The UK is third in Vietnam’s roster of largest investors from the European Union, surpassed only by France and the Netherlands, with its current 109 business projects having a combined value of $2.04 billion.

UKTI 是政府服務機構,主要為有意進行 海外投資的英國公司提供顧問服務,UKTI 曾考察全球 19 個行業的 540 家大型企業的 高管,最終形成上述報告。報告的主要發 現為,45%的受訪者將中國作為來年及日 後的首選投資目的地,印度得到 43%的支 持,略遜於中國。曼德爾森勳爵表示 : 「諸 多新興市場的表現優於發達經濟體,預計 來年將繼續強勁增長。全球衰退為所有企 業敲響警鐘,日後應注重多元化出口市場, 努力在新興市場把握新業務機遇。我們鼓 勵英國企業放眼海外,在充滿機遇的新興 市場把握商機。」在赴越南投資的歐盟國家 中,英國的投資規模位居第三,緊隨法國 及荷蘭,目前在越南投資 109 個項目,合 計價值高達 20.4 億美元。

Fast and Furious 速度與激情 So from zero to 100 in less than 40 years is a feat phenomenal by anyone’s standard. Did the victorious Viet Congs suddenly find a magic wand NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


42

Economy

to transform their economy from ashes to one of the best-performing in the world? After the war in 1975, Vietnam had to deal with the reality of not having an economy to speak of, a situation exacerbated by the tragic loss of some 1.5 million military personnel and civilians, as well as an exodus of one million refugees – among them tens of thousands of professionals, intellectuals, technicians and skilled workers so vital in the process of rebuilding.

無論以何種標準衡量,在不到 40 年的時間內由一窮二白起步實 現經濟繁榮都堪稱豐功偉績。難 道說獲得戰爭勝利的越共突然得 到靈丹妙藥,將廢墟中的越南神 奇地轉變為全球表現最佳的經濟 體之一? 1975 年戰爭結束後, 越南不得不面對毫無經濟可言的窘境,戰 爭造成 150 萬軍人和平民死亡,1 百萬難 民離境,其中有數以萬計的專業人才、知 識分子、技術人員和熟練工人,這些人才 對於經濟重建都具有至關重要的作用。

Enter the Doi Moi 步入改革 Remember the UKTI report citing the year 1986 as the take-off point for Vietnam’s leaps-and-bounds economic success? For good reason: 1986 ushered 1975 至 1986 年間,越南的共產主義政 in an era dubbed the Doi Moi, a period 體開始推行計劃經濟,由政府執掌經濟建 of reform and renovation which marked 設的各個方面。越南政府透過標準化的五 the country’s dramatic shift from a 年計劃建設經濟,但第一個五年計劃以失 centrally planned economy to a socialist敗告終,原因在於,該計劃為工業、農業 oriented market economy and the 和國民收入的年增長率制定不切實際的過 experience of rapid economic growth. 高目標。五年計劃的廣泛推廣有助於越南 Under the Doi Moi, the government launched a re-vitalised political and economic campaign, introducing viable reforms for speeding up the transition from a centralised to a socialist-oriented market economy. The Doi Moi 人民重拾飽受戰火摧殘的信心,但實現更 resulted in a happy mix of 為重要的經濟目標仍步履蹣跚,小規模生 government planning and free-market 產仍是經濟的主導力量,生產力停滯不前, incentives, encouraging the establishment 失業率、材料和技術短缺仍普遍存在,食 of private enterprises and attracting 品和消費品依然匱乏。 foreign investments, including foreignowned companies. It soon became The second five-year plan until 1985 evident that Doi Moi was the way to go. adopted a more pragmatic approach: The business and agricultural reforms a compromise between ideology and instituted under Doi Moi resulted in economic reality, focusing on agriculthe creation of more than 30,000 private tural and industrial development while taking strides towards the decentraliza- businesses by the late 1990s, with the economy running like a well-oiled engine tion of planning and the improvement and growing at 7 percent per year – and of the managerial skills of government poverty reduced by almost half. officials. languished as small-scale production dominated; labour productivity remained sluggish; unemployment, material and technological shortfalls pervaded; and, food and consumer goods stayed at insufficient levels.

The second five-year plan until 1985 adopted a more pragmatic approach: a compromise between ideology and economic reality

From 1975 to 1986, the Communist regime implemented for the re-unified nation a planned economy, one in which the government exercised sole and exclusive control of all economic aspects. The textbook-standard five-year plans were put in motion, the first one falling flat on its face because it unrealistically set overthe-top targets for annual growth rates for industry, agriculture, and national income. The propaganda component of the plan may have succeeded in bolstering the morale of a war-weary citizenry, but the more important economic objectives

1985 年之後制定的第二個五年計劃更為 務實,該計劃合理調整意識形態與經濟現 實之間的關係,注重農業和工業發展,大 刀闊斧地向地方分權,注重提高政府官員 的管理水平。

您是否記得,UKTI 曾將 1986 年視為越 南經濟蓬勃發展的起飛點?該觀點有十分 充足的理由 :越南於 1986 年啟動改革,將 高度集中計劃經濟轉變為社會主義市場經 濟,實現經濟的快速增長。在改革過程中, 越南政府推出一系列政治和經濟改革計劃, 積極推進集中的計劃經濟向社會主義市場 經濟轉變。改革實現政府計劃與自由市場 的理想結合,鼓勵創建私營企業,吸引外 國投資,包括外國獨資企業。事實很快證 明,改革是越南發展經濟的正確道路。改 革政策推行後,截至 90 年代末,越南出現 超過 30,000 間私營企業,經濟發展一日千 里,年均經濟增長率保持在 7%左右,貧 困人口減少一半。

On July 13, 2000, Vietnam made another milestone in its economic strides by signing with former protagonist, the US, the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), which gave Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status to Vietnamese goods entering the U.S. market. This pact singleASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


Economy

handedly allowed Vietnam to hasten its way towards a manufacturing-based, export-oriented economy, in the process also luring in foreign investment not only from the US but also from Europe, Asia and other regions. The following year, the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) passed a 10-year economic plan that “enhanced the role of the private sector while reaffirming the primacy of the state”. Economic growth jumped from 6 to 7 percent in 2000-02, making Vietnam the world’s second fastest-growing economy despite the world experiencing recessive trends at the time. Coincidentally, investments increased three times and domestic savings five times over.

2000 年 7 月 13 日,越南與美國簽署《雙 邊貿易協定》(BTA),美國給予越南正常貿 易關係(NTR)待遇,允許越南商品進入美 歷經 11 年的不懈努力,包括 8 年的艱苦 國市場,在越南經濟發展過程中具有里程 談判,越南於 2006 年 11 月 7 日成為世界 碑意義。該協定快速推動越南發展成為以 貿易組織第 150 個成員國。加入世貿組織 製造為基礎的出口導向型經濟,同時有效 後,越南將不再受 1974 年多邊紡品協定 吸引美國、歐洲、亞洲和其他地區的外來 (MFA)的紡織品配額限制,該協定主要限 投資。第二年,越南共產黨(VCP)通過 制發達國家由發展中國家進口紡織品。越 10 年經濟計劃,「繼續大力發展私營經濟, 南步入世界貿易舞台後,可進一步發展經 同時鞏固國有經濟的主導地位。」2000 - 濟,推動自由化改革,為貿易擴張提供可能。 2002 年間,越南的經濟增長率由 6%增加 加入世貿組織還有助於越南企業積累經驗, 至 7%,在全球經濟低迷的背景下,成為 與大型外國企業直接競爭,為參與海外競 增長第二快的經濟體。與之對應的是,越 爭敞開大門。 南的投資增長三倍,國內儲蓄 增長五倍。

43

如今,越南經濟已成為 快速發展的混合型經濟, 是全球領先的農產品出口 國,亦是東亞和東南亞地 區極具吸引力的投資目的 地。越南進口額大幅增長, 約佔 GDP 的 40%以上,主 要由中國、台灣、新加坡、 日本、韓國、泰國和馬來 西亞進口機械、精煉石油、 鋼鐵、紡織行業原料和布 匹。另一方面,越南的商 品出口主要為原油、紡織 品、服裝、鞋類、水產品 和電子產品,出口目的地 主要為美國、日本、中國、 澳大利亞、新加坡、德國 和英國。

As an investment destination, Vietnam is no neophyte. The William Moser cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments reportedly totalled $46 billion from 1988-2004, with about 58 percent of that dispersed by the end of 2004. Around 50 percent of FDI is being directed at Vietnam’s two key cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. In 2003 new FDI commitments amounted to $1.5 billion. FDIs are being poured mostly into industry and construction, by far the largest sector for licensed FDI. Foreign investments are also being placed in such sectors as oil and gas, fisheries, construction, agriculture and forestry, transportation and communications, and hotels and tourism. In the five year period from 2006–2010, Vietnam is confident of securing $18 billion of FDI to help achieve a target GDP growth rate of over 7 percent.

The economy of Vietnam nowadays is a fastdeveloping mixed economy, gaining worldwide prominence as an agricultural exporter and in foreign investment

The World Stage 世界舞台 After 11 years of dogged determination, including eight years of negotiations, Vietnam became the 150th member of the World Trade Organization on November 7, 2006. As an immediate benefit, Vietnam was freed from textile quotas imposed globally in the 1974 Multifibre Arrangement (MFA), which restricted the import by industrialised nations of textiles from developing countries. Its entry into the world trade scene allowed a further economic boost, and helped institutionalise the liberalising reforms it had implemented, as well as providing options for trade expansion. It also gave the country the experience needed for Vietnam’s economic sectors to directly go up against established foreign firms and open the door to increased foreign competition.

The economy of Vietnam nowadays is a fast-developing mixed economy, gaining worldwide prominence as a leading agricultural exporter and an attractive foreign investment destination in East and Southeast Asia. Its imports have expanded significantly, accounting for over 40 percent of GDP, composed principally of machinery, refined petroleum, steel, material for the textile industry and cloth – from main origins China, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. On the other hand, its merchandise exports consisted of crude oil, textiles and garments, footwear, fisheries products and electronics – mainly bound for the US, Japan, China, Australia, Singapore, Germany and the UK.

作為投資目的地,越南不乏經驗。據 William Moser 統計,1988 - 2004 年間, 越南累計吸引外商直接投資(FDI)達 460 億美元,其中約 58%在 2004 年底之前注資。 約 50%的外商直接投資注入越南兩大城市, 分別為河內和胡志明市。2003 年,越南新 增外商直接投資 15 億美元。越南吸引的外 商直接投資主要注入工業和建築行業,這 是目前獲得外商直接投資授權的兩個最大 規模的行業。越南吸引的投資亦注入油氣、 漁業、建築、農業、林業、運輸、通訊、 酒店和旅遊行業。在 2006 - 2010 的五年間, 越南有信心吸引 180 億美元外商直接投資, 實現 GDP 增長率超過 7%的目標。|AT|

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Economy

The Erstwhile Unheralded

BPO Sector 作者/by Bert Olbes

Part III of III of “The Triad of Philippine Dollar Earners”

亞洲虎

業務流程外判:一鳴驚人 An online report by a major

Philippine TV, internet and radio network (ABS-CBN News) at the start of the 3rd quarter of 2009 stated that the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines ( JFC) was not expecting the economy to slip into recession this year, thanks to the “country’s strong remittance inflows and revenues… allowing the Philippines to show positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2009”. With respect to this, the following is yet another major contributor, aptly subheaded…

生產總值(GDP)增長。」其實拉動經濟成 長還有一架馬車,且看下文分解。

The Third of a Kind

第三駕馬車 In the first two parts of this three-part series, it was revealed that new-found

integral parts of the triad of Philippine dollar earners operative to “staving off the wolves” insofar as financial negativity is concerned.

前兩章介紹道,得益於旅遊部力促觀光 業發展,以及海外勞工大潮,菲律賓總算 在金融風暴中「逃過一劫」,這兩駕創匯馬 車功不可沒。

Notwithstanding, the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) is indubitably the most formidable member of the triad – not merely undaunted and unaffected by the financial downturn – but rather the fastest growing of the three in terms of percentage expansion in absolute US$ being generated and brought into the country.

Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines (JFC) was not expecting the economy to slip into recession this year, thanks to the “country’s strong remittance inflows and revenues

菲律賓著名的電視、互聯網和廣播網路 ABS-CBN News在2009年第三季度初的網上 報導中說,菲律賓外商聯合會(JFC)並不 認為今年經濟會陷入衰退,理由是「匯款 流入及收入保持強勁……確保2009年國內 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

growth in tourism corresponding to the aggressive efforts of the country’s Department of Tourism (DOT), and the Filipino OFW (Overseas Foreign Workers) phenomenon, have both been

不過,要論三駕馬車中的最強者,無疑 當屬業務流程外判(BPO),不但因其在金


Economy

45

BPO revenues multiplied

more than a hundredfold to US$2.6 billion in 2006, more than doubled from then to US$5.8 billion in the first half of 2009 alone 融動盪中毫髮無傷,而且創匯增長速度更 高居三駕馬車之首。

To qualify and in terms of definition, the BPO sector is not only comprised of the call-centre (alternatively referred to as the contact) faction, there is the much more impressive sector aptly labelled “Backroom Office Services” (BOS), a sub-sector where desired manpower qualifications greatly outweigh direct costs to subscribing customers abroad in terms of value for money. It is an arena of qualified professionals ranging from architects, to engineers, to animators, to legal and medical transcribers, to logo and advertising designers; and many more types of such manpower which deliver ratios of total-personnel-to-moneygenerated distinctly in favour of the former. And another significant advantage: BPO dollar-generating personnel stay in the Philippines (in some cases working out of their own homes) -- meaning dollar revenues received in the country are in gross amounts, devoid of foreign banking deducted com-

missions. In particular, applicable remittance levies or commissions are more commonly absorbed by the remitting overseas clients rather than by domestic BPO companies.

具體而言,BPO 不只是呼叫中心(或 聯絡中心),還包括熱門的「後勤辦公服 務」,這個分支領域對人才素質的要求十分 嚴格,從物有所值的角度而言,遠高於海 外訂購客戶的直接成本。這個領域藏龍臥 虎,人才輩出,有建築師、工程師、動畫 師,有法律和醫療轉錄員,亦有標誌設計 師、廣告設計師等等,他們所產生的「總 人員與總產值之比」相當可觀。一個顯著 優勢是,BPO 工作者都在菲律賓國內(有 時甚至居家辦公),國內收到的美元收入即 是淨收入,沒有外國銀行從中扣款。換言 之,匯款手續費或佣金通常由國外的匯款 客戶承擔,跟國內的 BPO 公司無關。

Ahead of dissecting the composition of this incredibly robust sector, there are some startling figures to look at so as to put things in proper perspective initially.

在詳細解析這個蓬勃發展的產業之前, 先看一組驚人數字,便可窺豹一斑。

Astronomical is Not the Word 天文數字 Less than a decade ago, specifically in 2000, the BPO industry generated a paltry US$24 million that year. Now comes the eye-popping revelation: revenues multiplied more than a hundredfold to US$2.6 billion in 2006, more than doubled from then to US$5.8 billion in the first half of 2009 alone, and are forecast to hit US$9 to 11 billion in 2010 on the strength of merely one million BPO-related employees by then. This amount will constitute a mere 3% of the US$300 billion that the industry is expected to generate worldwide by the end of the same year (2010), which summarily provides the Philippines ample room to eat into insofar as market share is concerned.

不到十年前,也就是 2000 年,整個 BPO 行業 的產值只有 2,400 萬美 元。時光流轉,今非昔比: 2006 年收入增加一百多 倍,達 26 億美元 ;2009 年上半年又翻一番,達 到 58 億美元 ;2010 年有 望增至 90 億 -110 億美 元,而這一切不過是出 自 100 萬 BPO 從業人員 之手。這個數字在當年 (2010 年)整個行業預計 高達 3,000 億美元的全 球收入中僅佔 3%,所以 菲律賓無疑有廣闊的發 展空間。

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Economy

The local industry as a whole is in fact growing at a rate of at least 30% per annum (with some analysts claiming the growth is occurring at a rate as high as 40-50%). Compare this to the US$ 17 billion that 9 million Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs) will be remitting this year, which will have grown at a rate of a little more than 3% over 2008. Putting it in a crystal ball perspective then, the industry will, in a comparatively scant time period – or in a matter of 4 years – overtake the already justifiably boastful figures being churned out by the OFW phenomenon (even taking into consideration that, as a rule, growth curves tend to taper off in the middle to long term -- relative to initial spurts, which are typically exponential). Meanwhile the tourism industry is expected to contribute between US$ 4.5 to 5 billion in 2009. This is both commendable and respectable, but destined to remain a distant third at least into the foreseeable future due to the lag in infrastructure required to support faster growth, as well as to some extent a lack of cohesion and focus by the industry as a whole.

There is an overgrowth of professional talent, which is a major reason of the growth of Filipino Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs)

Philippines annually. Yet, the more than 2% population growth and the lagging internal economic growth create a conspicuous disparity in any increases in jobs availability, as compared to the rate 在菲律賓,BPO 行業每年都能達到 30% 以上的增長率(有分析人士稱最高達 at which young Filipinos are entering 40-50%)。相比之下,今年 900 萬海外勞工 the job market each year. Reliable figures 匯回的收入有 170 億美元,只比 2008 年增 are unavailable as to how much of the 加 3% 略多。用不了多久(也許四年左右), disparity exists because of corruption or BPO 便會超過已然很了不起的外勞產業(即 misuse of funding from foreign loans and 便是考慮到增長曲線在最初的急劇上升之 locally generated governmental income 後會在中長期內平緩下來的規律)。預計 (from income taxation and value-added 2009 年旅遊業可貢獻 45 億 -50 億美元, taxes). Nonetheless, as a result there is 雖說也算不錯,但在可預見的未來註定是 an overgrowth of professional talent 敬陪末座,因為與快速發展相配套的基礎 that prior to the last decade or so had 設施落後,還有就是整 個行業缺乏凝聚力和向 心力。

Tens of thousands of medical, engineering, architectural and other universitylevel graduates emerge into the job market of the Philippines annually

Understanding BPO 認識BPO There exists a perplexing oddity about Philippine professional work as it relates to education levels attained, compared to what the country has actually accomplished. Tens of thousands of medical, engineering, architectural and other university-level graduates emerge into the job market of the

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

remained dormant or unused, which is a major reason for the growth of OFWs. So until the advent of the cyberspace phenomenon in global internet facilities, there was little or virtually no opportunity to take advantage of burgeoning professional resources being utilized

productively somewhere – anywhere, to be more precise, other than locally where supply vastly outnumbers demand and the disparity between the two continues to widen.

菲律賓的職業工作有一個令人費解的怪 圈,那就是國民的教育程度跟國家的成就 不相稱。每年都有成千上萬畢業於醫療、 工程、建築及其他專業的大學生湧入國內 就業市場,可是因為人口增長率超過 2%, 加之國內經濟成長乏力,新增加的工作崗 位供不應求,很難滿足每年湧入就業市場 的菲律賓年輕人的需要。因為外國貸款和 地方政府收入(所得稅和增值稅)被貪污 或者挪用,誰也不知道這個缺口究竟有多 大。由於近十年來專業人才迅猛增加,有 些人沒有用武之地,便加入了菲律賓海外 勞工的大軍。其實,直到互聯網設施構建 的網路虛擬空間出現之前,新興的專業人 才資源在任何地方都很少或者說根本沒有 機會得到有效利用。菲律賓則不同,因為 國內的人才供應一直遠大於需求,而且這 個差距還在持續擴大。

But once internet maturity began to emerge, the start of which can be estimated (at least in this part of the world) to have occurred in earnest between 1998 and 2000, the birth of the BPO “gold mine” in the Philippines became an irresistible inevitability. This is because, unlike Vietnam, or Cambodia, or Burma, Laos,


Economy

Indonesia or other “third world” Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines has a higher level of education, not the least of which includes a literacy rate of 92%. Moreover, its westernized “upbringing” bequeaths it advantages in comprehension of Western cultural idiosyncrasies, including but not limited to a contextual grasp tied to the country’s English-speaking capability (the third largest in the world). All these factors have coalesced into a potent concoction that has resulted in this now locally widespread threeletter acronym, BPO. To qualify, countries such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are highly educated. However, they use a much greater percentage of their talented domestic resources internally – that is, in the development of their own nations. The BPO industry in the Philippines, on the other hand, benefits foreign countries in terms of their sustainable development.

47

medical or legal transcription.

縱觀菲律賓監管委員會(PRC)在網站 上(www.prc.com.ph)公佈的綜合統計, 參加法律、醫療(醫生及護士)、建築及 工程學科會考(通過會考才有資格在國內 執業)的考生,通過率還不到 25%,其餘 75% 保留資格,參加復習課程,等待一段 時間後重考。事實上,參考會考的人不管 通過與否,都已有能力進入到 BPO 產業的 某些「後勤辦公服務」分支領域,比如醫 療或法律轉錄。

51% of the the total Philippine population speak English, the highest in South East Asia, and third largest non-native English speakers in the world

This said, as opposed to the call or contact centre faction of BPO in the Philippines, the BOS arena is much more specialized in terms of qualifications required. While some university studies of any sort and an adequate command of English (which is then honed through rigorous in-house training) may suffice to qualify an individual to enter the call centre (inbound) BPO service sector, this is the diametrical opposite of individuals who are hired to transcribe medically or legally, for example, or even more glowingly so, to draft architectural and engineering plans, etc. (For “outbound” call centre qualification, a measure of innate sales savvy is a must.)

For Every Action There’s a Reaction 人才豐富 Examining the collective statistics posted by the PRC (Philippine Regulatory Commission) on its 1998 年到 2000 年間,互聯網技術開始成 website, www.prc.com.ph, not more 熟(至少菲律賓如此),菲律賓的 BPO「金 than 25% of board exam takers in 礦」終於露出真容。跟越南、柬埔寨、緬 fields of law, medicine (doctoral and 甸、老撾、印尼等「第三世界」的東南亞 nursing), architecture and engineering, 國家不同,菲律賓國民的教育程度都很高, actually pass the board exams that 識字率達到 92%。受西式教育的薰陶,菲 allow each to practice their respective 律賓人對西方文化的理解有自己的優勢, career-of-choice within the country. 比如因為國民都講英語(菲律賓是世界第 The remaining 75% retain eligibility to 跟呼叫或聯絡中心不同,「後勤辦公服 三大英語國家),所以對英語情境有很強的 undergo review courses and await the 務」更加專業化。英語熟練的人經過大 把握能力。天時地利人和,BPO 在菲律賓 學學習或許就能承擔呼叫中心(對內)的 applicable intervals or waiting periods 興起。其實新加坡和馬來西亞的教育水準 before exams can be re-taken. However, BPO 服務工作,可是要想從事醫療或法律 也很高,但他們的人才基本都是自產自用, whether he or she ever passes a board 轉錄,或者是製作建築和工程圖紙這些更 用在本國的發展上。從另一方面看,菲律 exam, the individual becomes proficient 高端的工作,那就非要一些真本事不可。 賓的 BPO 產業對其他國家也有好處,那就 (從事「對外」呼叫中心的工作,必須得 enough to enter certain BOS sub是促進了這些國家的(可持續)發展。 有天生的銷售頭腦) sectors of the BPO industry such as

Relatives and friends cheer and wait fo Bar Examinees infront of De La Salle University in Manila

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Economy

How BPO Thrives BPO緣何興盛 While a qualified draftsman in the US or UK might command a basic wage of between US$20-30 dollars an hour, the most his or her counterpart might make from a contracted firm the individual works for in the Philippines would be US$4 to 5 an hour, which would be the equivalent of an astronomical 38,000 to 43,000 pesos (between US$800 to 900) a month working a normal 40-hour week. The firm he or she is employed by, in turn charges the American or British firm US$12-15 an hour, meaning the foreign principals save fully 50% (at the very minimum) for initial designs, drafts, etc.

在美國和英國,一名合格的繪圖員的基 本工資為 20-30 美元/小時,而菲律賓只 要 4-5 美元/小時。假設每週工作 40 小 時,一個月就有 38,000-43,000 比索(約 合 800-900 美元)。而他們的僱主則向美國 或英國的客戶收取 12-15 美元/小時的費 用,這樣算來,外國客戶可以節省一半的 初始設計、繪圖等開支。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Thereafter, initial architectural drafts or engineering plans – whether accomplished in a BPO country or in the country of origin – then undergo the exact same due diligence, review and ratification by the contracting firm’s expert and final line of defence against any compromise in product quality (i.e., a PE or Professional Engineer), who

part-time work hours only. This latter group elevates the quality of work delivered (while not necessarily increasing cost to the foreign principals) and alleviates to a discernible extent the naturally higher rate of errors or imperfections in work that may be delivered by neophyte fresh graduates. In short, the internet not only makes BPO services possible in terms of instantaneous delivery of “product” to overseas clients, but also opens up the job market internally (within the Philippines) to those who are head and shoulders much more qualified to begin with, but who would otherwise not be able to work if they had to leave their domiciles and/or have to work on a fulltime only basis, or not at all.

有了互聯網,隨時修改和糾正工作變 得可行。網路還讓人們可以不分年齡大 小——不論是新 手、大學畢業生還 是各行各業的退休 者——都能居家辦 公,或者兼職工作。 經驗老道的退休者 可為交付的工作進 行品質把關(而且 未必會增加外國委 託人的成本),減 少稚嫩的新人經常犯的錯誤。總之有了互 聯網,BPO 服務就能隨時向海外客戶交付 「產品」,同時也為那些有工作能力但是無 法離家或者全職工作的人創造了一個國內 就業市場。

Initial designs and drafts are done by professionals in the Philipines, then later checked by head engineers or architects of the clients for quality affixes his signature and “it’s a go” on the final “product” before using it themselves or delivering such to their own clientele, as the case may be.

隨後,在 BPO 國家或來源國完成的原始 建築草圖或工程圖,將會交給委託方的專 A Microcosm: Animation 家(專業工程師)作盡職審查、復核和認 可,確保品質萬無一失,然後給最終「產品」 動畫製作一瞥 簽字放行,以供自用或交付客戶。 There is a portion of the BPO

Moreover, the internet not only makes necessary corrections or changes instantly possible, but also allows an opposite age group (from fresh, university graduates), or retirees of respective industries, to work out of their own homes and even render

industry success that is attributable, at least partially, to intangible talents that Filipinos innately possess. In parallel to the proliferation of Filipino singers and musical bands in Asian capital cities, the field of animation is dominated, at


Economy

the very least on a per capita basis, by Philippine animators who for example, have been animating many of the world’s best-loved cartoons and animated films – Scooby Doo, Tom & Jerry, The Addams Family, The Mask, The Jetsons, Dragon Ball Z, Captain Planet, Finding Nemo and The Incredibles -- for global consumption. These famous outputs have emanated from entertainment giants such as Walt Disney, Warner Brothers, Cartoon Network, HBO, Marvel Comics, Hanna Barbera and producers of Japanese anime. Local animators have also been credited for rendering the graphics of gaming platforms such as Sony Playstation, Nintendo, Sega and Game Gear. According to the Animation Council of the Philippines, Filipino animators’ sophistication and talent have made the Philippines the preferred outsourcing partner of big international production outfits worldwide for over 20 years now.

consistent quality, the speed in delivering output and ability to comprehend concepts and story lines better than Asian counterparts because English is much more widely spoken, are other major reasons for the Filipino industry being preferred. As a result, presently there are about fifty animation studios in the country providing jobs to more than 6,000 local talents, with the industry expected to earn US$100 million this year.

服務成本低廉,品質穩定,交付迅速, 加上英語普及所以在概念和故事情節的把 握上比亞洲同行更到位,這一切都令菲律 賓的動漫產業如虎添翼。如今,國內有 50 多間動畫工作室,本地僱員 6,000 多名, 預計今年產值可達 1 億美元。

In summary, with a consistent annual

49

growth rate of 25% to 30% in recent years, the animation industry’s expansion pace is essentially equal to that of the average overall BPO expansion in the Philippines, which is momentarily pegged at a minimum of 30%. And if one were talking about one of the animation industry’s BPO counterparts – medical transcription -- in an analogous way he or she could effortlessly say, “It’ s just what the doctor ordered”. From abroad.

近年來,動漫業保持著 25%-30% 的增長 率,跟菲律賓 BPO 產業的平均增速(現為 30%)不相上下。至於動漫業的 BPO 同行—— 醫療轉錄,人們肯定會脫口而出這樣的評 價: 「這跟醫生的囑咐別無二致。」別忘了, 那可是國外的醫生。

BPO 產業的成功跟菲律賓人的天賦分不 開。就像亞洲的各大都會隨處可見菲律賓 的歌手和樂隊一樣,動畫業界也都是菲律 賓人的身影,許多風靡世界的動畫片如《史 酷比》、《湯姆貓和傑瑞鼠》、《阿達一族》、 《變相怪傑》、《傑森一家》、《龍珠 Z》、《地 球超人》、《海底總動員》、《超人特工隊》 等等,皆是出自菲律賓動畫師之手,製片 商則是華特迪士尼、華納兄弟、Cartoon Network、HBO、Marvel Comics、Hanna Barbera 等娛樂業巨頭,以及日本的動漫 製片商。為索尼的 Playstation、任天堂、 世嘉、Game Gear 等遊戲平台供圖,也讓 菲律賓動畫師聲名鵲起。菲律賓動畫協會 表示,二十多年來,菲律賓動畫師的豐富 經驗與才華使得菲律賓成為全球各大片商 青睞的業務外判夥伴。

This is by no means to imply that such talent to draw and animate doesn’t exist elsewhere, merely that foremost, cost per man hour is starkly in favour of Filipino talents. The advantage in favour of employing Filipinos to do so over foreign counterparts can go as high as 6 to 1 in terms of delegating such to the BPOrelated sector of the Philippines’ animation industry.

其實繪畫天分並非菲律賓人所獨有,只 是菲律賓的人工成本確實無人能敵。在菲 律賓動畫業的 BPO 領域,本地動畫師的僱 傭成本只有外國同行的六分之一。

In addition to lower costs of services, NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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“The world already has all the technology to reduce, re-use and recycle the bulk of these so called ‘waste’ materials” 作者/by Bruce Curran Reduce, Re-use and Recycle 減少垃圾、重複使用和回收利用 An estimated 7000 tons of domestic waste is generated every day in the capital city of Manila, with its unofficial population of some 12 million souls. Strange as though it might seem, there is a vast untapped potential deep within this mountain of garbage. In reality the waste that ends up in over 30 landfill sites around the country contribute to and escalate the concern for environmental degradation. We live in a world increasingly conscious of Climate Change and are more and more fearful of pollution and the results from the human obsession with generating waste – be it domestic or industrial.

在菲律賓首都馬尼拉,每天約產生 7000 噸生活垃圾,非官方統計的人口數約為 1200 萬。或許您會感到奇怪,其實堆積如 山的垃圾擁有巨大利用潛力。而在現實生 活中,這些垃圾被傾倒入菲律賓全國各地 30 多個垃圾填埋場,令人們對環境惡化的 憂慮與日俱增。當今世界,人們對氣候變 化日益關注,環境污染和人類不斷製造生 活或工業垃圾引發越來越多的憂慮。

Hamish Moore of Gennix-Pathogenesis reminds us all that there is in fact

good news out there, since “the world already has all the technology to reduce, re-use and recycle the bulk of these so called ‘waste’ materials”. He is insistent that the backbone for success in this world of garbage is “dependent on good national and international regulations, tight control of the registered waste management operators, and careful and responsible self management by these teams”. Lurking in the shadows are two of the most vital ingredients which will convert this potential into the real – the first critical sauce is resources (human and economic) and then that old chestnut, that most elusive of spices, the ‘political will’.

Gennix-Pathogenesis 的 Hamish Moore 提醒我們,其實 已經出現轉機,因為「減少垃 圾、重複使用和回收利用『廢物』 的技術已經成熟」。他堅持認為,成 功解決垃圾問題的重點在於「完善的國 內和國際監管,對註冊垃圾管理營運商的 嚴格控制,以及相關團隊審慎且負責任的 自我管理」。要想讓這種潛力轉變為現實,

Planning the Planet:

WastetoWant

Recycling for Profit in the Philippines ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


Economy

兩大要素必不可少-一方面是資源要素(人 類和經濟),另一方面是令人捉摸不定的「政 治意願」。

While these elements are all part and parcel of the jigsaw, and the potential is alive and kicking in the minds of a few, the recycling giant currently slumbers in the backwoods of the Philippine islands.

儘管這些要素都不可或缺,利用潛力確 實存在,諸多機構亦躍躍欲試,但目前這 些回收利用的寶藏仍在菲律賓島嶼的蠻荒 之地沉睡。

What materials are we talking about? 我們談論的是哪些材料? Take methane gas. 利用甲烷氣。

One site operator in the Philippines, with German investors, can store up to 30 million tons of ‘waste’ landfill material, and then lay in piping deep into the fermenting organic mass and siphon off methane gas for use as a fuel. In India they have used this fuel for cooking for generations already. Methane is one of the most environmentally damaging greenhouse gases that is potentially lethal for our world, so better to recover it and use it for a useful purpose. The Philippine Islands are harbouring endless supplies as the organics decompose and turn in to gas.

在菲律賓一 處由德國投資的 垃圾處理廠,這 裏存儲高達 3 千萬噸填滿廢物, 深度填滿並有機發酵後,可提 取甲烷氣用作燃料。在印度, 利用垃圾產生甲烷氣作為廚房 燃料的做法早已世代傳承。甲 烷是對環境破壞巨大的溫室氣 體之一,有可能為環境帶來致命影 響,最好能對其回收利用,充分發揮作用。 如能將垃圾有機分解後產生燃氣,菲律賓 島嶼將得到無窮無盡的能源供應。

“only 10 to 20% of

all domestic waste

should end up being put into the landfill sites”

The recoverable materials in domestic waste like tin cans, bottles, paper and metals are in the obvious fraternity for reuse. In fact, in most countries a third of ‘waste’ is instantly recoverable. Hamish says that this generally translates into the fact that a third of the ‘waste’ volume and one-third of its weight can be recovered straightaway. Of the remainder, about 50% is organic and the other half is inorganic. Inorganic materials can be shredded as aggregates, and when added to lime, water and sand, can be sealed inside concrete products.

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生活垃圾中有很多可以回收利用的材料, 例如易拉罐、瓶子、紙張和金屬。實際上, 多數國家三分之一的廢物可直接回收利用。 Hamish 認為,我們可以將其理解為,廢物 體積的三分之一和廢物重量的三分之一可 以立即回收利用。生活垃圾中約有 50%為 有機物,另一半為無機物。無機物可以粉 碎處理,加入石灰、水和沙子後,可密封 在混凝土容器內。 生活垃圾(或城市固體垃圾)約有三分 之一是有機垃圾,應對其分類處理,可堆 肥處理後用於改善土壤(代替昂貴且具有 潛在危害的肥料),或製成燃料球,或脫水 後用作熔爐燃料。此外,透過上述任何方 式利用有機廢物均可顯著降低填埋場的甲 烷排放。

Hamish is adamant that “only 10 to 20% of all domestic waste should end up being put into the landfill sites”.

Hamish 堅持認為,「僅有 10%至 20%的 生活垃圾應最終進入垃圾填埋場」。

The Proof is in the Pudding 空談不如實踐 ‘Reduce, Re-use and Recycle’ are the buzz words of the waste management industry.

「減少垃圾、重複使用和回收利用」是廢 物管理行業的流行口號。

In the Philippines not all the foundation stones are in place for a thriving ‘waste’ industry. Some of the ingredients are there but some are not. The current system does not encourage reduction or re-use, although there are some bright lights when it comes to the third corner of the ‘waste’ triangle – recycling.

在菲律賓,廢物處理行業蓬勃發展並不 具備所有基本條件。雖然有些要素已經具 備,但有些則尚待時日。儘管回收利用領 域已展現較為光明的前景,但目前的社會 體系並不鼓勵減少垃圾或重複使用。

So what is going on in the Ground? 地下填埋到底是怎樣的情況? Before domestic waste ends up in the ground, it can be crunched and compacted. This can be done once all the ‘recoverables’ have been taken out.

在生活垃圾地下填埋之前,首先被粉碎 並壓縮。將所有可回收利用的廢物分離之 後,便可進行上述處理。

In the Philippines, it is a different reality. Like a magical mystery dance the waste in Manila arrives on the docks in Tondo and is spilled onto the ground. The bulldozNOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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ers usher it into the waiting barges that carry the quagmire to a landfill site in the Bataan Peninsula, some 30 or so miles away at the head of Manila Bay.

在菲律賓,實際情況截然不同。馬尼拉 的垃圾神秘地到達 Tondo 的碼頭,然後傾 倒在地面,由推土機將垃圾推入等候的駁 船上,再將垃圾送至距馬尼拉灣約 30 英里 的巴丹半島填埋場。

Here the story turns into a kind of fantasy show, as dozens of people with shoulder bags hop and skip amongst the rubbish and garbage, dodging the bulldozers as they pick out recoverable items. The barge operators get paid by volume, the hauliers who brought the stuff in by truck get paid by weight, so all in all it is to the advantage of both players to avoid reduction, and minimise re-use. The people who rummage and pillage the waste are tolerated on the one side, but they are part of another quite staggering statistic. An estimated one million people, including tens of thousands of scavengers, are dependent for their livelihoods on the waste industry. Families and relatives stand in line where the cash payment is minimal in a country where people live mostly on the edge, surviving from one day to the next. It is surprising then that despite their poverty, the Filipinos are a people friendly beyond compare.

隨後將發生戲劇般的轉變,數十人肩背 麻袋在垃圾堆中穿梭,一邊躲避推土機, One of the many garbage landfills in the Philippines

There has to be a key that makes waste management an important

contributor

to the Philippine economy. Profit is this great motivator!

conveyor belt system. People, including a large 一邊撿起可回收利用的垃圾。駁船營運商 Mexican contingent, stand in lines sorting 按照體積收費,使用卡車運送垃圾的運輸 the material as it passes by; 400 trucks a 公司按照重量收費,不提倡減少垃圾和重 day then leave for the landfill sites, the 複使用可令雙方獲益更多。另一方面,垃 recoverables are recycled and the operator is 圾處理者容許撿垃圾的人存在,但他們卻 now a billionaire. Incentive is the name of 是另一支垃圾大軍的組成部分。在菲律賓, the game! 估計約有 1 百萬人依靠垃圾行業謀得生計。 菲律賓有大量人口每天在溫飽線上掙扎, 儘管撿垃圾的工作收入極低,還是會有不 少人全家一起上陣。令人難以置信的是, 這些菲律賓人儘管家境貧窮,卻無比友善。

What can be done? 應採取哪些措施? In other countries domestic waste is already a big money-spinner. Take San Diego in the USA. Here one operator takes 650 road trailers a day out of town to a single site where it is all loaded onto a vast

在其他國家,生活垃圾已經成為不可小 覷的利潤來源。以美國聖地亞哥為例,這 裏的垃圾處理營運商每天使用 650 台拖車 將市內垃圾運至單一處理地點,將垃圾傾 倒在巨大的傳送帶系統上。然後有人站在 傳送帶兩邊分揀經過的垃圾,其中多數為 墨西哥人。每天有 400 輛卡車離開這裏, 將垃圾運送至填埋場,透過回收利用垃圾, 營運商現已成為億萬富翁。利益驅動是行 業良性發展的要素! Our man Hamish in the Philippines sees a bright future in waste management in these islands. It is just not enough for us to nurse our world and keep it healthy, for there has to be a great motivator behind all of this to make this industry worthwhile in the long run. There has to be a key that makes waste management an important contributor to the Philippine economy. Profit is this great motivator! 菲律賓的 Hamish 充分認識到菲律賓島 嶼在垃圾管理領域的光明前景。為保持地 球環境健康,這還遠遠不夠,要想讓垃圾 處理行業獲得長期盈利能力,還需要具備 更有力的推動因素。我們需要一個關鍵的 推動因素,使垃圾管理成為菲律賓經濟的 重要貢獻力量。利潤是最佳的推動因素!

Recycling for Profit 透過回收利用盈利 The Philippines has a very long way to go to chip in on this cash cow, and its obsession with bureaucracy is one of the great demotivators. That is only one side of the dice. The current system has several inbuilt faults that delay the potential for profit. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


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要想令垃圾處理行業獲得盈利能力,菲 律賓還有很長的路要走,而政府機構的官 僚作風是消極因素之一。而這只是問題的 一個方面。菲律賓目前的體制存在多個固 有缺點,會抑制該行業的盈利潛力。

That media monster favourite, which continually raises its head all over the world, is ‘corruption’. The Philippines has a dose, and a quick buck is often preferred to a long term healthy profit stream.

其中備受全球媒體普遍關注的問題就是 腐敗。菲律賓已經制定應對措施,為實現 長期的健康盈利模式,必須令從業者快速 獲得收益。

In the movement of waste, some of the dose is quite practical and understandable. The barge operators and truck hauliers know the score – compacting and recovering are not economically worthwhile for them, it reduces their pay cheque.

在垃圾周轉的過程中,有些措施切合實 際且容易理解。駁船營運商和卡車營運商 深知自己的利益所在,壓縮和回收利用對 他們而言沒有經濟價值,這種方式會造成 他們收入下降。

From Profit to Livelihoods 由盈利至生計 The infamous ‘Smokey Mountain’ of Tondo, even referred to by some as ‘Fire Mountain’, smoulders near the Pasig River that runs through the heart of Manila. It is a dump site with a difference. The Pasig waterway itself is severely degraded and currently being heavily dredged in a ‘clean-up’ type of campaign -- but that is another story.

巴石河(Pasig River)流經馬尼拉的核 心地段,在臨河地區,Tondo 的煙山令人 擔憂,有些人甚至稱之為火山。這裏是景 象大不一樣的垃圾傾倒場。巴石河水質已 經嚴重惡化,政府目前 正對其進行大規模淨化 治理,但這與我們要探 討的問題關係不大。

The real story is in Tondo, where the Philippine Christian Foundation (PCF) is headed by the tireless, brilliant, and dedicated Jane Walker, previously from Britain, but now an adopted daughter of the Philippines who is magically obsessed with livelihood and

Educational and Livlihood projects of Jane Walker’s Philippine Christian Foundation

education projects for the disadvantaged. The Smokey Mountain waste workers have a champion. However, Jane quickly points out that it is the pride and self-confidence of these people that have given root to her cause. A school made out of several hundred ship containers has been built on the side of Smokey Mountain in the compacted waste sight. The PCF collects waste from chosen sites around Manila and the recoverables have a future. The iconic building in Makati City, the RCBC Plaza, is in the cycle.

Tondo 的情況是真正的現實,Jane Walker 是菲律賓基督教基金會(PCF)的 負責人,他來自英國,現孜孜不倦得投入 菲律賓慈善事業,積極為弱勢群體提供生 計和教育項目。她為煙山的垃圾處理工人 積極奔走。不過,Jane 認為,是這些工 人的自豪和自信為她的工 作指明出路。在煙山的壓 縮垃圾處理場,用數百個 集裝箱建成的學校拔地而 起。PCF 在馬尼拉周邊的 垃圾填埋場收集廢物,將 其回收利用。Makati 市的 標誌性建築 RCBC Plaza 亦參與回收利用。

Jane Walker founder of the Philippine Christian Foundation

Recycling comes of Age 影響深遠的回收利用 The RCBC, amongst others, give their waste to the PCF who then make colourful beads from

glossy magazine paper, fancy bags from the ring-pulls of soda cans, big and small bags for all sorts of occasions and people, made from discarded advertising tarpaulins. Circuit board chips and a host of other products can be sold on to other re-users. The Philippine Christian Foundation has become a valuable asset to the community and has an economically viable foundation: a foundation with a purpose. RCBC 將廢物提供給 PCF,PCF 利用光滑 的雜誌紙張製成色彩斑斕的珠飾,用汽水罐 拉環製成精美的手提袋,利用廢棄的廣告油 布製成大小手提袋,滿足各種場合和人士的 需求。電路板芯片和其他產品可出售給其他 重複使用者。菲律賓基督教基金會已成為備 受社區尊重的機構,同時獲得自己的經濟來 源。該基金會的工作意義非凡。

Recycling at this level may be on the small-scale, but the positive impact for those involved is gigantic.

這種形式的回收利用或許規模較小,但 對參與者的影響意義深遠。

Recycling reaches the Mainstream 回收利用進入社會主流 The PCF is only one of a long list of suppliers for a thriving little shop with a heart. Take a range of recycled products and a mass of organic cosmetics, and you have three dedicated, passionate and committed professional Filipinas who have been in the game for one year already. The EchoStore has its prime outlet in Serendra NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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in the Bonifacio Global City, just across the road from Market Market. The fact is they are seriously making a difference. Already a small second store has opened on the ground floor of the Podium in Ortigas in Manila. The store has a whole range of products from recycled materials, handmade through livelihood projects from all over the Philippines – from Mindanao in the south, the Visayas in the middle of the archipelago, and from several livelihood projects in Luzon. These are all high-end products in the sense that they are made with care and precision, and properly monitored for quality control and the rest. The three women, Pacita Juan, Jeannie Javelosa and Regina Francisco have decided that they have now done with the self-centred professionalism of their lives, and wish to give some of their expertise back to communities through sustainable, worthwhile and viable projects. Already EchoStore has won national and international acclaim. They are a springboard and source of energy, and it definitively appears that they have opened the doors, if not the floodgates, to a whole new era.

除 PCF 之外,還有諸多回收產品供應 商為關注環保的店鋪供貨。在回收利用 產品和有機化妝品領域,三位專注、充 滿熱情且執著的菲律賓專業人士已經擁有 一年的行業經驗。EchoStore 的總店位於 Bonifacio Global 市的 Serendra,就在 Market Market 對面。這些店鋪已作出不小 的貢獻。EchoStore 的第二家店鋪位於馬 尼拉 Ortigas 地區的 Podium 一層。店鋪 銷售品種齊全的產品,均採用回收利用材 料製成,透過菲律賓各地的生計項目由人 工製作,包括南部的 Mindanao、群 島中部的 Visayas、以及 Luzon 的多個生計項目。 這些產品工藝精巧,品質 控制嚴格,均屬於高端產 品。Pacita Juan、Jeannie Javelosa 和 Regina Francisco 這三位 女性放棄以自我為 中心的專業主義, 希望透過可持 續、有價值且可 盈利的項目將專 業技能回饋社區。 EchoStore 已經贏 得國內和國際聲譽。 她們是環保產品的創 意之源,即將開啟嶄新 時代的大門。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Their network is spreading…the network of recycling has found a firm footing and has reached the mainstream. A wealth of well-wishers and people eager to follow their example are in this stream of recycling activity. This is indeed a new era with a valuable purpose.

實際上,市場對回收利用的熱情已不可 遏制。

well documented on www.echostore.ph

Reduce, re-use and recycle for a better world.

The point has already been reached where recycling is not only vital for our world, but recycled product has become a very much more sought after item.

回收利用不僅對環境保護意義重大,同 她們的業務網絡正不斷擴大……回收利用 時回收利用的產品已成為市場熱捧的對象。 行業的業務網絡已經擁有堅實基礎,並融入 The word is out on the street…put your 社會主流。她們的成功吸引大量有志投身環 money where your heart is…buy recycled 保事業的人士效仿,積極參與回收利用工作。 products! 這的確是全新時代的開端,意義非凡。 人們已達成共識,理應花錢購買心儀的 Their story is a heart-warming one and 產品,理應購買回收利用的產品! 該故事十分感人,www.echostore.ph 網 站提供詳細內容

Bespoke Recycling 定制回收利用 All over Manila there are tarpaulins being discarded. They have served a purpose and then become waste. Most reach landfill sites, but some turn the tide and become a part of the great recycling race. ‘Trashe Bolsas’ are a group who have taken the knocks of learning the game, and now churn out a classic and classy menu of bags for all seasons. Every man, woman and child should have one of these bags, and they are designed for all occasions. Now they are spreading their wings and already going international both here in Asia and as far afield as Europe. Buy in bulk, with a heart and for a cause, on www. trashebolsas.com

在馬尼拉市內,人們丟棄的油布隨處可 見。這些油布曾經發揮作用, 現在則淪為廢物。多數油布被 送到垃圾填埋場,有些則被回 收利用,繼續發揮作用。Trashe Bolsas 充分利用廢棄的油布,將 其製成典雅別致的手提袋,適合各 個季節使用。無論男女老少,都應擁 有一款這樣的手提袋,適合所有 場合使用。現在,他們不斷 擴大業務,已經開始國際化 經營,成功進入亞洲和歐 洲市場。如有意批量購買, 支持環保,請瀏覽 www. trashebolsas.com

Waste to Want 變廢為寶 The fact is, there is no stopping this rags-to-riches recycling mania.

我們應倡導減少垃圾、重複使用和回收 利用,創造更美好的世界。

Backpeddling versus Recycling 漠不關心對比回收利用 Industrial waste is another story, and a more delicate matter. Biomedical waste needs to be treated and collected instantaneously. Heavy metals like lead and mercury are a worry. Encasement in concrete is a fitting burial.

工業廢物的情況有所不同,問題更為複 雜。生物醫學廢物必須即時處理並收集。 鉛和水銀等重金屬亦是嚴重問題。用混凝 土密封是理想的處理方式。

Fluorescent lighting (originally a Filipino invention) is a great example of a manufactured product which has a high lead and mercury content.

熒光燈(最初是菲律賓人的發明)是很好 的實例,此類產品含大量的鉛和水銀成分。

The Philippines generates 2.5 million tons of industrial waste annually, and this translates into compacting and concreting and burying out on site, but not out of mind.

菲律賓每年產生 250 萬噸工業廢物,此 類廢物必須壓縮後混凝土密封,然後填埋, 理應重點關注。

At the end of the day, landfill is a contentious issue. Developed countries don’t want certain types of waste buried in their own backyard. The encouragement is for ‘responsible’ dumping of their nastier industrial waste in the less developed world, which is just not on…or is it?

垃圾填滿始終是充滿爭議的問題。發達 國家不希望在自己的國土內填滿某些廢物。 他們鼓勵採取所謂「負責任」的處理措施, 即將危害較大的工業廢物傾倒至欠發達地 區,這樣就能解決問題嗎?


Economy

As the Copenhagen climate

conference approaches in December 2009, the scramble to agree a successor treaty to Kyoto Protocol proceeds in earnest. Political leaders compete to showcase their country´s commitment to reducing CO2. Long on enthusiastic climate change rhetoric, political leaders have yet to match lofty ideals with concrete actions and programmes. This inaction, however, could be a blessing in disguise.

target, partly funded with subsidies and incentives, the sums needed are likely to strain national budgets. Thus, within an altruistic context, public funding for renewable energy investments are readily legislated, only to see commitments dissipate as quickly as public deficits build up.

隨著2009年12月的哥們哈根氣候會議日 趨臨近,各國對達成《京都議定書》後續 協定的呼聲不斷高漲。政治領袖之間已展 開角力,積極展示各國致力於二氧化碳減 排的決心。儘管控制氣候變化的設想和概 念不斷推陳出新,但政治領袖尚未拿出實 際行動和方案,亦無從採取有效的措施。 不過這種消極態度或許會令氣候變化問題 因禍得福。

就目前趨勢來看,全新的方案和政策不 過是對與補貼、保護性電價、稅務激勵、 碳信用和配額相關的傳統設想進行重新調 整的產物。歐洲各國似乎已達成共識,計 劃於2020年前實現能源總需求中可再生能 源所佔比例達到20%。為實現該目標,政 府須提供高額補貼和激勵投入,總數可能 令國家預算難以承受。因此,在謀求公共 利益的背景下,透過政府支持為可再生能 源提供資金已提上議事日程,但隨著政府 的財政赤字不斷加劇,這種可能性正快速 消失。

At best, old ideas revolving around subsidies, feed in tariffs, tax incentives, carbon credits, and quotas are repackaged as novel initiatives and policies. Europe appears to have a “consensus” of supplying with renewable power sources 20% of their energy needs by 2020. To meet this

Renewable energy technologies (RETs) are seen as socially desirable, as they produce energy that relies on natural processes without consuming exhaustible resources such as oil, gas, coal and uranium. This includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, wave, hydro and other technologies yet to be discovered

55

or developed that do not emit CO2 or waste. However, at this stage of their technological development, they are seen to be either expensive because their capital costs are higher than coal or gas-fired power plants; less reliable and intermittent with low utilisation rates (i.e. wind and solar); or unproven and experimental (i.e. wave). Depending on location, geothermal, hydro and biomass appear to be closest to gas and coal when it comes to being cost competitive -- at least in Asia -- in producing power.

可再生能源科技(PET)符合社會發展的 需要,這種科技依靠自然過程獲得能源, 無須消耗石油、燃氣、煤炭和鈾等不可再 生能源。可再生能源科技包括風能、太陽 能、地熱能、生物能、潮汐、水力及其他 有待發現或開發的技術,這些能源不會產 生二氧化碳或廢棄物。不過,在技術發展 過程中,此類能源要麼成本高昂,因為較 之煤炭或燃氣電廠投資更高,可靠性較 低,利用率較低(即風能和太陽能),要 麼未得到實際驗證或處於試驗性階段(即 潮汐)。受地理位置影響,亞洲地區的地 熱能、水力和生物能源與燃氣和煤炭較為 接近,略具成本優勢。

Over time, with increasing capacity NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

being installed, capacity costs (i.e. dollars per kWp) tend to decline. This is both a good thing and a concern. For future investors, they can think that they have the luxury of waiting. Early adapters face prospects of rapid obsolescence. This is an investor´s dilemma, which we refer to as the “green paradox” for RETs adaptation that tries to balance positioning, opportunity loss and cost of waiting.

tariffs and quotas produce mixed results. While high wind power deployment in Denmark, Germany, and Spain converted these countries into world leaders, similar policy packages are seen to be less effective in the US and UK.

歐洲和美國的可再生能源配置比例遠高 於亞洲地區,他們的經驗證明,將補貼、 高電價和配額措施充分結合才能獲得綜合 效果。丹麥、德國和西班牙大量配置風力 發電設備,這些國家在新能源應用領域已 走在世界前列,而類似的政策在美國和英 國卻收效甚微。

隨著時間推移,在裝機容量不斷增加之 後,容量成本(即美元/ kWp)有可能下 降。這既是好消息,又會引發擔憂。對未 來投資者而言,他們可能認為等待會帶來 更高收益。早期投資者則有可能面臨設備 快速老化的風險。這是可再生能源發展過 程中投資人面臨的兩難選擇,我們稱之為 「綠色矛盾」,投資人必須努力實現市場 定位、機遇喪失和等待成本之間的平衡。

So, what distinguishes these countries´ contradictory experiences and outcomes? Let us start with how investments are evaluated and its influence on how they are financed.

那麼,是哪些因素決定這些國家得到截 然不同的經驗和結果?我們首先探討對投 資的評估方式及其對融資方式的影響。

Society as a whole benefits from RETs (i.e. non-CO2 emitting), and supporters

Flawed Premises – Certainty Can Be Expensive 有缺陷的前提-確定性可能成本高昂

Investment and financing decisions are influenced by discounted cash flows (DCF). In a number of surveys on capital budgeting by academics such as Klammer (1972), Schall (1978) and Graham and Harvey (2001), they reported that more than 80% of corporations use DCF to evaluate their projects. Prof Neeley at Cranfield, the top UK management school, confirmed these results in his 2006 survey. In both my investment banking and oil and gas industry careers, “cash is king” -- and DCF are the closest to having “biblical truth” on your side in any valuation argument.

argue for strong regulatory backing (i.e. subsidies and high tariffs). As a result, the onus is placed squarely on regulators and governments to make the system predictable, transparent and with ironclad guarantees on property rights. This may be assumed to be the case in developed markets, while (incorrectly I argue) perceived as major issues in developing markets, where legislations are evolving. In fact, regulation continues to evolve in all markets as technology advances and adaptation increases. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

可再生能源(即無二氧化碳排放)可令 社會獲得綜合收益,其擁躉者要求政府給 予有力的法規支援(即補貼和高電價)。 這使得監管機構和政府必須承擔責任,制 定可預計且透明的管理體制,充分保障知 識產權。有人認為這主要是發達市場面臨 的問題(我認為不正確),其實這亦是發 展中市場在改進立法時遇到的主要問題。 實際上,隨著科技進步和新能源應用的增 長,所有市場的監管法規都在不斷改進。

Experiences in Europe and the US -- where RETs volume deployment is more advanced than in Asia -- show that a combination of subsidies, high

貼現現金流(DCF)會影響投資和融資決 策。Klammer (1972)、Schall (1978) 及 Graham and Harvey (2001) 等學術機構對 資本預算進行的調查顯示,80%以上的公 司會使用貼現現金流評估項目。英國頂尖 管理學院 Cranfield 的 Neeley 教授在 2006年調查中進一步肯定該結論。回顧我 在投資銀行和石油燃氣行業的工作經驗, 無論對於何種項目估值,「現金為王」和 貼現現金流始終是顛撲不破的真理。

DCF work in the following manner: The cash you invested today generates a stream of cash income (or cash flows) over the next few decades (for capital projects like power plants). Cash flows vary with fluctuations in prices, volumes, costs and taxes. In order to make the


Economy

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European and American investors and regulators responded with their “accepted ways of doing business”:

為解決該困境,在透過淨現值了解投資 預期和現金流的確定性之後,您便能理解 政府為可再生能源提供補貼和電價支援的 必要性所在。下文介紹一些歐洲和美國投 資人和監管機構如何應對「可行的業務方 式」:

1. High capex costs are offset by subsidies. Wind power capital costs range from $1,500/kW to $2,200/ kW, while combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) is averaging $700/kW. Hence, to improve wind power´s NPV, subsidies reduce capital costs to investors by letting taxpayers pick up part of the costs. Hence, socialising the investments in a “social good”.

investment (which is paid today) and cash flows (received over many years) comparable, they are discounted by a rate that is equivalent to capital costs. In turn, they are linked to interest rates and risk premiums applied to the project. We refer to this resulting number as the Net Present Value (or NPV).

貼現現金流按照下列方式發揮作用:今 天投入的資金(投資於電廠等資本項目) 應在未來數十年內產生現金收入(或現金 流)。隨著價格、產量、成本和稅金的波 動,現金流不斷變化。為使投資(今天投 入的資金)和現金流(多年後的收益)具 有可比性,可按照與資本成本相同的比率 對現金流貼現。貼現現金流還會與利率和 項目風險關聯。最終的結果被稱為淨現值 (NPV)。

NPV will vary if cash flows turn out higher or lower than forecasts. Higher investment costs for RETs projects will result in a lower NPV compared to gas or coal, making RETs less attractive to investors.

如現金流高於或低於預期,淨現值會隨 之變化。由於可再生能源項目的投資成本 較高,造成此類項目較之燃氣或煤炭項目 淨現值較低,使可再生能源項目對投資人 的吸引力大打折扣。

So, how does this influence the way RETs are deployed and adapted by investors and financiers? Let us take wind farm projects as an example.

那麼,這會對可再生能源的配置方式以 及投資人和金融機構的接受可再生能源的 方式有何影響?下面以風力發電項目為例 予以說明。

My friend Guido Alfredo A. Delgado, former president of the Philippines´ National Power Corporation, describes the dilemma succinctly: “Wind power is clean and does not pollute. For the privilege of complying with your civic duty, I am selling you wind power at higher prices without any guarantee as to when you are getting your power”.

菲律賓國家電力公司(National Power Corporation)前總裁 Guido Alfredo A Delgado 是我的好友,他用簡明扼要的方 式說明這種兩難處境:「風力發電是清潔 能源,不會在成污染。如果您希望履行公 民義務,我會以高價向您出售風力發電設 備,但無法保證何時能得到電力。」

To resolve this dilemma, seen from the perspectives of NPV where predictability and cash flows certainty are rewarded, one begins to understand the logic behind the need for subsidies and tariff support for RETs. Here are a number of ways

1. 利用補貼抵消建設成本。風力發 電項目的資本成本範圍為1,500美元/kW至 2,200美元/kW,而聯合循環燃氣渦輪機 (CCGT)的平均成本為700美元/kW。因 此,為提高風力發電項目的淨現值,可由 納稅人承擔部分成本,以補貼形式減低投 資人的資本成本。因此,以社會化方式解 決投資問題是對整個社會大有裨益的選 擇。

2. To ensure a minimum level of revenue and cash flows, quotas and higher prices (i.e. feed in tariffs) for RETs are instituted over and above the market price for power.

2. 為確保達到最低水平的收入和現 金流,應為可再生能源項目提供更高配額 並制定較高價格(即保護性電價),即高 於電力的市場價格。

3. Carbon credits or green certificates are allocated to RETs. These credits are internationally traded to provide a separate stream of revenues for RETs.

3. 應為可再生能源項目分配碳信用 或綠色認證。這些信用可在國際市場上交 易,為可再生能源項目提供額外收入來 源。

Taxes in the forms of CO2 levies, tax holidays, and tax credits to investors are applied to specific projects. Preferential despatch for RETs partly resolves intermittency of supply, in particular for wind and solar power, at the level of the power system.

對於特定項目,應為投資人提供二氧化 碳抵稅、稅務假期和稅務信用等形式的優 惠。在供電網絡中,對於風力和太陽能電 NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

Regulation and Economics Clash

出乎意料的後果-監管和經濟 衝突

In my doctoral research at Cranfield, I have the good fortune of bouncing ideas with Prof David Parker, an expert in regulation and competition policies, and Dr Tarik Driouchi, who enlightens me on the logic of investment paradigms.

在 Cranfield 進行博士課題 研究期間,我曾與監管和競爭政 策專家 David Parker 博士和 曾經啟發我深入理解投資運作 的 Tarik Driouchi 博士深入交 換意見。

力,應給予優先輸電待遇,從而解決供應 中斷的問題。

By applying these measures, the interests of regulators and investors appear to ensure that RETs projects have secure cash flows over its useful life, usually extending to 20 years. Consequently, this is seen by regulators to ensure hitting the “20% by 2020 target”. Thus, at a stroke of regulatory fiat, risky investments in an “expensive” technology such as wind power become as safe as a long term annuity.

透過採取上述措施,監管機構和投資 人可共同確保可再生能源項目在20年左 右的壽命週期內實現穩定現金流。為實 現「2020年前可再生能源所佔比例達到 20%」的目標,監管機構已將這種方式 作為有效保證。因此,在監管機構的推 動下,原本耗資巨大且風險較高的風力 發電項目可成為安全且回報穩定的投資 選擇。

With all this support, and in spite of rapid growth over the past few years, why are global RETs installations (excluding hydro) accounting for less than 2% of OECD power supply?

在政府的支援下,加之過去數年該領 域快速增長,全球可再生能源項目(不 包括水電)在經合組織能源供應總量中 所佔比例不到2%似乎有些不近情理。

Unintended Consequences – ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

I unearth some answers that point to unintended consequences of generous policy support. This often undermines the workings of markets for capital goods and power, and misaligns risks at the expense of investors.

有些國家慷慨的政策支援曾導致出乎意 料的後果,透過研究我終於得到部分答

案。這種情況往往破壞資本產品和能源的 市場運作,為投資人帶來不必要的風險。

Let us first examine how the economics operate: 我們先了解一下該經濟模式如何運作。

Generous subsidies reverse more than two decades of declining capital costs for wind power. From more than $4,000 / kWp two decades back, wind power turbine costs fell to less than $1,500 / kWp by 2007. In 2008, because of strong demand from European and American developers, with T. Boone Pickens (withdrawn since then), George Soros and a few others planning to invest several billion dollars, the demand for wind turbines outstripped fabrication capacity. Hence, wind turbine costs rose to more than $2,000 / kWp by the summer of 2008, with three year options thrown in to secure an order with Vestas, General Electric, Siemens and Spain´s Gamesa. This overheated wind turbine market was only relieved when oil prices fell sharply, followed by falling power prices, making wind power less attractive


Economy

as a result.

二十多年來,高額補貼使風力發電項 目的資本成本不斷下降。 二十年前,風 力發電渦輪機的成本超過4,000 美元/ kWp,2007年已下降至不到1,500美元 / kWp。2008年,歐洲和美國的發展商需 求旺盛,T Boone Pickens(此後撤出) 、George Soros 及其他企業計劃投資數 十億美元,採購高發電量風力渦輪機。因 此,風力渦輪機的成本於2008年夏季升至 2,000美元 / kWp以上,由 Vestas、通用 電氣、西門子和西班牙 Gamesa 公司採購 設備往往要等待三年時間。石油價格急跌 後,過熱的風力渦輪市場終於降溫,隨著 能源價格下降,風力發電項目的吸引力嚴 重受挫。

Less obvious is how inflated prices of RETs distort the operational flexibility that RETs provide to a power system or portfolio. In a system with hydro, wind power´s intermittency is mitigated by using power from wind to pump water back up the reservoir. This is a way of storing “power” via water where fuel costs are nil for wind power. Hydro is then released at peak load and sold at peak prices, resulting in a significant profit for power generators.

可再生能源項目的價格膨脹嚴重削弱可 再生能源的營運靈活性。對於水力發電系 統,可借助風能將水抽回水庫,從而彌 補風力發電的間歇性缺點。這是一種透過 水儲存能源的方法,且風能無任何燃料成 本。隨後,水力發電得到市場追捧,價格 水漲船高,發電廠獲利頗豐。

This game is spoiled by RETs feed in tariffs. Every time a power generator optimises its capacity mix in this way, it pays more for wind power to pump water up and receives less (at market prices) when they sell their hydro power. Easily, this results in a loss when in reality, the power generator should be laughing all the way to the bank.

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often needed from national and local governments. In Spain, developers, regulators and governments tend to cooperate whereby the national government sets national priorities, with regional governments deciding what can be done in their regions. The requirements for licences are general

可再生能源的保護性電價徹底破壞該 狀況。如果水力發電長希望借助風能優 化發電能力,使用風能電力抽水時須支 付更高費用,出售水力電力時卻得到較 低收入(市場價)。這種情況導致發電 廠蒙受損失,而按照正常情況,發電廠 理應獲益頗豐,笑逐顏開才對。

How about the administrative and procedural issues? 行政管理和管理流程的情況如何?

To build a wind farm, a licence is NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Economy

會投資人,而成為經濟代理人。亞洲國家 可在三個方面積極努力。

First – Rejig the subsidy concept: Technology specific subsidies, as presently practised, force governments to choose a “champion” under rapidly changing technological landscapes. This is wrong given that future technologies are yet to be developed; or innovations can make present ones more effective and competitive.

其一-調整補貼理念:在科技快速變化 的背景下,現行的科技補貼會迫使政府選 擇支持對象。鑒於未來科技尚未成功開 發,或創新可能令當前科技更具功效和競 爭力,這種做法並不可取。

要想建造風力發電廠,一般須獲得國家 和地方政府頒發的牌照。在西班牙,發展 商、監管機構和政府採用合作方式,國家 政府制定指導政策,地方政府負責本地區 的具體決策。申請牌照時須提供綜合規 劃,項目獲地方政府批准後,還須提交詳 細的工程圖紙、連接規劃和融資方案。

plans, followed by detailed engineering, interconnections and financing once the project and local permits to build are approved. In contrast, UK regulators tend to take a centralised and “hands off ” approach, requiring developers to submit complete details of the development, engineering, interconnection and financing plan, increasing front end costs. On receipt of the licence, developers then seek the local authority’s permission to build. This sequencing raises uncertainty whereby after spending for licensing, there is no assurance local authorities will grant a permit. Seen as remote to the community – given that the project is approved by a distant national regulator – local authorities tend to see such projects as “good” but “not suitable in my backyard (NIMBY)”.

與之相反,英國的監管機構選擇高度集 中的管理方式,要求發展商提交詳細的發 展規劃、工程規劃、連接規劃和融資方 案,導致項目前期成本增加。獲得牌照 後,發展商還須得到地方政府的施工許 可。這種制度會造成很大的不確定性,因 為投入資金獲得牌照後,無法保證地方政 府提供施工許可。此類項目往往遠離社

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

區,因為國家監管機構與地方政府之間可 能存在意見分歧,地方政府可能認為此類 項目儘管初衷不錯,但與本地實際不符 (NIMBY)。

In effect, in spite of better wind locations in the UK, more wind farms are built in Spain because of the higher certainty of getting projects approved and permitted. In fact, as at 2007, less than 17% of UK licensed projects proceeded to construction partly because of long delays or rejections in local permitting.

在該制度的影響下,儘管英國的地理位 置更適宜風力發電,但西班牙的風力發電 廠數量更多,因為發展商在西班牙得到項 目許可的把握更大。實際上,在2007年, 獲得英國政府許可的風力發電項目中,由 不到17%的項目在申請地方政府許可的過 程中被長期拖延或拒絕。

What Asia Can Do Differently 亞洲應採取哪些措施

As a new entrant into RETs, Asia offers both the potential of a large market and an ability to introduce new approaches as its regulatory structure is evolving. This starts with government´s role as economic agent – rather than as social investor. There are three areas Asian countries can tackle:

作為可再生能源領域的入門者, 亞洲既有潛力無窮的市場,亦能夠在 監管架構完善的過程中引入全新管理方 式。首先,政府應轉變角色,不再擔任社

What we do know today, however, are “dirty” technologies that pollute; and we could “socialise” their costs. Perhaps, not surprisingly, these technologies look cheap because the costs of polluting are not accounted for. Taxing CO2 appears to be a rational approach to putting a price on pollution.

如今我們深知,污染嚴重的科技會污染 環境,並將環境成本社會化。這些科技看 似廉價的原因在於,我們並未計入環境污 染的成本。對二氧化碳排放徵稅看似合理 的措施,可量化污染成本。

Hence, by setting power prices closer to their “true level”, the system achieves double wins: Discouraging “dirty” technology, while promoting innovation in RETs.

因此,如能合理調整能源價格,使其接 近真實水平,便能得到雙重收益:抑制 污染嚴重 的科技,同時推動可 再生能源創 新。


Economy

Second – Support for indigenous resources: Asia may find it seductive to transpose what works in Europe and America. Feed in tariffs require transparent and functional power markets that do not always exist in Asia. Subsidies place a strain on national budgets.

其二-支援本土資源:亞洲國家可能認 為,效仿歐洲和美國的模式極具吸引力。 保護性電價要求透明且能發揮調節作用的 電力市場,而亞洲多數國家尚 不具備該基礎。而補貼又會給 國家預算帶來壓力。

機投入使用,風力發電的資本成本顯著下 降。

Asia can turn itself into a dynamic RETs market. As Spain learned through experimentation, Asia can achieve this by simplifying licensing and permitting processes, while encouraging open access to increase competition in the supply of capital goods and financing. Industries tested against competitive pressures are

If governments need to allocate scarce subsidy dollars, support for engineering and research on wind turbine technology may be areas to allocate funding. More importantly, indigenous resources -- such as geothermal, hydro and to a lesser extent, biomass -- are where Asia has competitive edge, and it’s endowed with natural resources. The Philippines is the second largest geothermal producer globally, after the United States, with Indonesia ramping up its scale.

如政府希望分配數量有限的 補貼資金,支援風力渦輪科技 的工程技術和研究可能是較為 理想的渠道。更重要的是,亞 洲的地熱、水力和生物能等本 土資源具有競爭優勢,天然資源 豐富。菲律賓時全球第二大地熱生產國, 僅次於美國,印尼亦在積極擴大地熱利用 規模。

Third – Simplify administrative processes: Large markets such as China, India, ASEAN and East Asia (Taiwan and Korea) offer the leverage of scale. With power capacity needed to meet their future demand, scale impacts revenue opportunities and potentially drives future capital costs down. Remember that wind power capital costs fell as more turbines were installed.

其三-簡化行政審批流程: 中國、印 度、東盟 和東亞(台灣和韓國)等規模 較大的市場具有規模優勢。由於能源必須 滿足經濟日後發展之需,規模會影響收入 機會,並有可能促進未來資本成本下降。 回憶一下上文內容,隨著越來越多的渦輪

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wind turbine supplier, has shown it can be done through acquisitions and internal development.

中國擁有強大的製造能力,加之亞洲未 來對能源的巨大需求,很有可能在多個可 再生能源領域成為全球領先者,例如太陽 能電池板,不久的將來,亦可能在風力渦 輪機領域有所建樹。印度的 Suzlon 是風 力渦輪機供應商,已透過收購和內部發展 證明自己的雄厚實力。

In a rapidly changing environment, technological prowess and entrepreneurial energy -- with some help from government to get started – can transform industrial landscapes. Those that wait for subsidies to ensure certainty of cash flows will still be complaining about regulatory uncertainty, well after RETs have taken off as viable sources of energy.

在快速變化的市 場環境內,科技實 力和企業能量是 必不可少的競爭要 素,若加之有效的政 府扶植,定能改變行業 格局。如企業一心希望 透過補貼獲得穩定的現 金流,在可再生能源成 為可用能源之後,很可 能仍在抱怨監管機構的 不確定性。

more likely to become global leaders. Whereas pampered national champions that live off subsidies hardly survive the first onslaught of technological change and disruption.

亞洲完全可以轉變為極具活力的可再生 能源市場。亞洲可借鑒西班牙的經驗,簡 化牌照發放和審批流程,鼓勵市場開放, 提高資本和融資渠道供應的競爭程度。處 於競爭壓力下的企業更容易成為全球領先 企業。如果企業依靠補貼得過且過,在科 技變革和市場衝擊的影響下,將很難存 活。

China´s manufacturing might, coupled with Asia´s vast needs for future power capacity, allows it the potential to become a global leader in a number of RETs such as solar panels -- and in the near future, wind turbines. India´s Suzlon,

In this business environment, Asia has the potential to win -- and following Spain´s example, a new entrant in RETs can proceed to becoming a global leader. Where Asia can start is to get its regulatory framework in order, and support its entrepreneurs by enabling their freedom to reap the benefits of innovation in an open and competitive market.

在當今商業環境內,亞洲擁有贏得競爭 的潛力,應積極效仿西班牙模式,由可再 生能源領域的入門者發展成為全球行業領 導者。亞洲目前的首要工作是,合理調整 監管框架,為企業提供支援,營造開放且 公平競爭的市場,讓企業自主經營,透過 創新不斷壯大實力。|AT|

To contact the author, please email ricardo. barcelona@cranfield.ac.uk 如有意聯絡作者,請發送電郵至

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


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Technical Overview of Markets

Markets proceed to channel up and bounce from major supportive trendlines

撐,在踴躍買盤推動下觸底反彈。回探重 要支撐成功,表明買盤積極,反彈有望持 續。不少股市漲幅已高(見下表「從09年 低位反彈幅度」),加上業績報告期即將 到來,投資者/交易商宜提高警惕,精選 個股操作。有人懷疑企業盈利能否支持股 市續漲,目前來看市場並無理由一蹶不 振,因為盈利已有好轉跡象,而且低利率 環境可為股市提供充裕資金。

維持上升通道 底部支撐有力

Global markets proceeded to ascend through a typically difficult period of the year, and may hopefully call out a little more in terms of upside action. But some markets (like Japan, Shanghai, Thailand, Korea, Hong Kong, and even the US) did encounter some profit taking pressure that worked through a necessary pullback to major support, but did find ample demand waiting which prodded a healthy rebound. This retest of major support acknowledges the continuing presence of buying demand and offers a lingering recovery phase for the time being. With a number of stocks from various markets showing a clear mile upward stretch (see table below Rally High from ’09 base) and with advent of earnings season slipping in, investors/traders may have more challenge to go on as a phase of high selectivity may slip in. People have now come to ask whether corporate earnings can keep the rally going, but so far markets have had no reason to back down for any durable cause as some positive earnings flows and the low interest rate environment proceeds to keep funds available for equities.

Dollar weakness ontinues; Oil and Gold breaks out above major resistance

美元持續低迷 金價油價突破重要阻力位 The Dollar continued it’s down drip and now nears a 14-month low against

環球股市在一年中的傳統淡季保持升 勢,後市看高一線。某些市場(如日本、 上海、泰國、韓國、香港甚至是美國)遭 遇獲利回吐壓力,回落到重要底部尋找支

From Top left (clockwise): Japan, Shanghai, Korea, USA, Hong Kong and Thailand

World Market Performance (Oct 19, 2009) 環球市場表現(截至2009年9月21日) Country 國家

StockChart Code StockChart 代號

Current Price 當前點位

32-day MA 32天移動平 均值

65-day MA 65天移動平 均值

Rally high from ‘09 base 從09年低位反彈幅度

YTD Performance 年初至今表現

$spx

1,087

1,053

1,024

64.6%

20%

Philippines 菲律賓

$psec

2,932

2,852

2,800

70.3%

57%

England 英國

$ftse

5,256

5,100

4,895

52.4%

20%

Japan 日本

$nikk

10,236

10,182

10,178

53.4%

16%

$hsi

22,200

21,171

20,719

96.1%

54%

$ssec

3,038

2,898

3,046

91.7%

67%

USA 美國

Hong Kong 香港 China 中國

(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices (*紅色的均線值表示股指已經跌破 have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance) 該均線,此處現已成為阻力位) ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009


Technical Overview of Markets

the Euro as expectations stand that U.S. interest rates would stay low for the rest of the year. The Dollar index, which shows the Dollars’ general performance against a basket of currencies (heavily weighted into the Euro), proceeds to skirt to a new 2009 low and may very well be looking closer to 2008’s low of 71 to 70.70. The Dollar’s weakness has effected bullish calls for stocks this year, with global markets rising as the dollar has flopped. The Dollar Index has lost 15.9% since its recovery highs in March of this year and has yet to show any meaningful attempt to break its downward channel and rebound. A sell into any rebound is still aired for the Dollar up until an upward break of its channel is shown.

美元兌歐元逼近14個月低位,因市場預 期今年美國加息無望。反映美元對一籃子 貨幣(其中歐元佔很大權重)整體表現的 美元指數,創出2009年新低,並且極有可 能跌向2008年的谷底,即71-70.70。美元 的低迷令今年的股市值得期待,因為股市 總與美元的走勢背道而馳。自從今年3月 反彈高位之後,美元指數已 跌去15.9%,現時仍無擺脫 下降通道轉身向上的跡 象。在形成上升通道 之前,美元的任何 反彈都是逢高賣出 的機會。

Capitalizing on the Dollar’s weakness is Oil and Gold prices. Both of which have broken above major resistance zones and have recently advanced quite formidably. Oil in particular has just recently broken above its

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4-month long onsolidation, lifting itself above its $75 resistance. The commodity is now standing close to the lower end of our $80 - $90 target. Prices however have begun to reach overbought levels (RSI of 72) and may possibly induce a small reaction or correction to new supportive levels closer to $75 to $74.

美元「跌跌不休」,金價 和油價卻是節節攀升,二者 都已攻克上方阻力,近期漲 勢強勁。油價結束長達四個 月的整理,一舉突破75美元 關口。我們預測的目標價是 80-90美元,當前價格位於 預測範圍的低端。目前已有 超買跡象(RSI=72),後市 或有小幅調整,下檔支撐在 75-74美元一帶。

Gold prices similarly broke free from its consolidation range highs ($1,033) and has rekindled its advance. Gold which has been inversely related to the Dollar and serving as a common hedge against inflation, pushed free from a triangular pattern now at $1,064, and suggests a potential upswing to $1,108 assuming its triangular pattern height of $133 and a breakout price of $975. Thus a Hold recommendation is keyed for both Gold and Oil in view of their renewed upward position.

金價突破整固區間的頂部(1,033),上 漲空間打開。黃金與美元向來背道而馳, 而且是抵禦通脹的法寶。金價已突破三角 形整理,站穩1,064,假設三角形高度有 133美元,底部為975美元,則下一目標將 是1,108美元。鑒於金價和油 價升勢再起,建議繼續持有。

Durability check on markets 行情持久度分析

Global markets have been quite sturdy along their respective advances and have only occasionally showed reactive drives or consolidation pit stops to NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


64

Technical Overview of Markets

可以此為標呎,當VIX上升 時,表示市場不確定性增 加,反之則表示市場趨於穩 定。最近VIX創新低(見右 圖),可推測市場的套利壓 力不會加劇。

ease the effects of overbought conditions. So far no major breaks have been recently seen in global indices aside from the September corrective swings in the Nikkei and the Shanghai indices, both of which have already recouped from their pullbacks. And until significant breaks in supportive points are shown, upward bias will likely continue to allow share prices to compose itself higher.

各大市場漲勢堅定,偶有回調或整固, 以糾正超買。近期多數市場均無明顯破 位,唯有日經指數和上海指數於9月份劇烈 振盪,現已扭轉頹勢。除非跌破重要支撐 位,市場將延續上行態勢,為股價繼續上 漲創造條件。

The Volatility index, a measure of the markets implied choppiness, can be used to support the markets lingering trend. Investors use this index as a fear gauge particularly when a higher value on the VIX appears rendering a larger scale of market uncertainty, while a lower value on the VIX posits greater stability. Thus with the VIX recently sliding to a fresh low (as shown into the chart on the right), we can therefore asses that markets have not jacked up the red flag to call in a wave of heavier profit taking.

反映市場隱含波動的波動率指數( VIX),可用來判斷市場的趨勢。投資者

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Another factor to watch out for is US bond yields. Yields provide us with insights to interest rate expectations. Higher Yields speak of higher rates and vice versa. And as things go today, US Bond Yields have managed to air out a consolidation after its brisk advance in the first half of the year. This suggests a moratorium on rates expectations and hopefully a steady rate value for the meantime… which could bring out stable views from recovery swings into equities. Some concerns will surface however if Yields punch above its channel range (37.50), suggesting that the low interest rate cycle may be coming to an end – this may be taken negatively by markets. So this will be something necessary to watch over.

另一個指標是美國國債收益率。收益率 體現了市場對利率的預期。收益率上升預 示利率將要上升,反之亦然。美國國債收 益率繼上半年大漲之後回落整固,表明市 場仍無加息預期,利率可望保持穩定,所 以股市反彈亦可持續。一旦收益率向上突 破箱體(37.50),則預示低息周期即將終 結,這對股市構成利空,故此需加留意。

Status quo: Trading ranges and channels 靜觀其變:區間振盪 波段操

As we have made mention in our last article that markets continue to play out it up trend and our ability to follow such trends is integral in maintaining core positions into stocks/ indices whose upward frame remains solid. A Hold is maintained or a range trade option stands looking to buy dips into support so long as our major support zones are not violated.

上期文章講過,市場正保持上升趨勢, 投資者應順勢而為,對於上升形態清晰的

股票/指數,要維持核心倉位。建議繼續 持有,亦可波段操作,以不跌破重要支撐 位為前提,在支撐位附近逢低買入。

Prepare then for ranged swings and be careful of spikey price swings which could be assaulted by profit taking action. These periods are quite known for producing less aggressive channels which may pin prices down to controlled boundaries – as a as deterrent to buying into overbought conditions. Rotation will also look for better prospects in proper reactions to short term moving averages or produce small congestion patterns. Some of these patterns can be bought into breakouts if they have managed to free itself from overbought pressure. Thus our objective is to buy into worthy reactions or patterns that draw away from resistance and which edge closer to our support zones. Then look to profit take on clear signs of hefty upward action where momentum readings are quite flat or absent.

後市振盪難免,價格或有起伏,留意套 利壓力。這段時期的特徵是運行通道逐漸 平緩,股價窄幅波動,很少會有因為超買 而形成的買入機會。當回落到短期均線, 或者形成窄幅密集振盪的形態時,可考慮 板塊輪炒。密集振盪形成突破,且超買壓 力釋放後,可趁機買入。我們的目標是參 與有意義的走勢或行情,比如突破阻力 位,或者是下跌接近支撐位。漲幅已高而 動能指標不濟或衰減,便是套利了結之時。

For safety purposes, be on the alert for corrective waves as channels do produce these hiccups every so often. And as long as major trendlines stand solid there should be no reason to freeze the upward trading plan.

運行通道內時有振盪,宜提防調整浪以 策安全。只要關鍵趨勢線安然無恙,就把 做多堅持到底。|AT|


66

ATIR Market Report

Nikkei 225 (Japan) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

10,000

9,628

10,700

11,000 15000

Last High on 08/29/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

10238.65 13079.37 9378.94 6994.90 10144.9941 10198.6201 9142.2793 9759.3027

14000

13000 12000

Nikkei shows a less steep channel

11000

10000 9000

8000 7000

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

-70.0584 -94.2268 24.1683

0 -500 100

RSI on Close (14) 54.53

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

2008

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: Range trade the Nikkei using the new channel – buying closer to 9,628 and looking to take some profits near its 10,600 to 10,700.

The Nikkei managed to show a bounce after staging a major correction to its adjusted trendline. A new and less steep upward angle has formed and may now control the frame of its advance or new range. Thus the channel’s support has been adjusted to 9,628 while its high sides reside closer to 11,000. However the Nikkei’s medium term picture broke below a two month consolidation and a 6-month trendline, highlighting that its upward shift is now slowing down. This may make comebacks a little difficult and one that would expect to find heavy resistance closer to 10,600-10,700.

Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

2,766

2,639

3,068

3,170

Last High on 08/04/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

2979.788 3478.010 2441.706 1664.925 3049.4219 2894.0334 2454.3545 2868.5212

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

100

-11.3668 -28.4138 17.0471

0 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 55.22

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31 Jan 30

Feb 27

2008

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A range trade strategy or sell into strength (near 3,068 to 3,170) is maintained up until prices can free itself from the clutches of resistance. Buy closer to support of 2,766. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Shanghai Index remains range bound Shanghai’s Composite managed to proceed with its ranged recovery and will likely test its high range soon. The index has had to produce a new base after displaying a hefty corrective drive in July. Its recovery phase is still locked into a consolidation and may likely stay range bound between 2,766 and 3,068-3,170. So far its momentum readings are still dry and may swing into the recovery choppily. A price break above 3,068 should give it a better boost to show more forceful swings. Moreover if its MACD can move back to positive readings then should give the index a stronger hand in proceeding upwards a little more durably.


ATIR Market Report

67

Set Index (Thailand) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

672

625

727

758

Last High on 10/13/09 Average LOw on 11/26/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

800

692.72 758.55 538.51 380.05 672.7568 712.9925 528.3306 608.1643

700

600

500

400

11.3548 15.7098 -4.3550

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

-40 100

RSI on Close (14) 40.38

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 30

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30 May 29

2008

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold or range trade strategy stands but with strong emphasis in following a support stop at 672 (just in case). If the index manages to recoup most of its recent loss then look to profit take near its resistance… assuming a channel may surface from this recent corrective swing.

The Set stumbles to major support The Thai Set index broke below its short term trendline forcing on a corrective wave to its next major up trendline. This supportive zone should express some strong demand capacity by ordering a rebound and perhaps try to create a pattern or range to rectify its corrective hiccup caused by worrisome rumors about the health of their King. This however should be watched, given the break of a short term trendline, just in case some support failure is further displayed. The index should keep its support structure at 672 solid and propose a recovery pattern.

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

2,424

2,340

2,559

2,770 2600

Last High on 10/07/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

2515.383 2559.670 1754.494 1089.340 2340.2085 2424.1216 1734.8676 3095.4832

2400 2200

2000 1800

1600

1400

1200

1000 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

35.2410 37.2738 -2.0328

0 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 62.64

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

2008

Nov 28

Dec 30

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold or range trade will keep itself hoisted so long as no support stops have been triggered. Thus if 2,424 is breached then look to lighten down accordingly given a possible corrective drive to 2,340 or 2,270.

The JCI proceeds with its upward channel Jakarta’s Composite index continued to air out its advance standing close to the lower end of its upward channel range. Although some upward momentum has been lost, no critical rupture in any support stops have been sighted. A clear watch over its 32-day Moving Average should be engaged as its trendline seems to be tracking this upward pace – any breach below it (currently at 2,424) would trigger a stop. As the RSI has not shown overbought readings in a while, it should be handling the pace of the advance in an orderly manner and should try to subsist.

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


68

ATIR Market Report

KLSE Composite (Malaysia) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

1,220-1,208

1,165

1,280

1,300-1,310

Last High on 10/15/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

1300

1246.86 1256.59 1005.47 801.27 1184.4983 1208.9329 1000.9251 1109.9093

1200

1100

1000

900

800

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

13.4704 11.6200 1.8504

0 -40 100

RSI on Close (14) 74.66

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

2008

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: Range Trade the channel or hold as long as the supportive 32-day MA does not break (this support stop is currently seen at 1,220-1,208). Look for profit taking measures only if prices come to reach the proximity of resistance targets between 1,280-1,310.

Malaysia also continues to channel up The KLSE index proceeds with its advance and has done quite well holding its sway higher after again bouncing from support. A channel continues to guide prices along its advance and maintains its supportive structure above the 32-day moving average, presently at 1,208. Momentum however is flat but its RSI is not overbought nor is it now showing any divergence dangers – this could leave some room for a gradual advance. Upsides are seen closer to 1,280 to 1,310.

PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

2,848

2,793

3,052

3,333 3200

Last High on 10/08/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

2942.79 2971.32 2290.38 1684.75 2786.8994 2848.5442 2263.4570 2543.6206

3000

2800 2600

2400

2200

2000

1800

1600 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

38.2870 30.3725 7.9145

0 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 63.78

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 24

Jan 30

Feb 27

2008

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 28

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A hold stands as a new trendline shows renewed support – it is important that prices try to stand above its recent pattern or preferably above its 32-day MA (2,848) to keep its upward bias solid.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

The PSE rolls upwards but is under pressure The Philippine Composite managed to show breach of resistance and a pattern but had quickly been subjected to profit taking. MACD readings also show some momentum loss so the index needs a clear boost in demand soon. A failed attempt to stay above its previous range or shorter term moving averages would merit heavier pressure and corrective tide… track its support stop. Keeps watch of its new adjusted trendline showing support closer to 2,848 followed by 2,793. Resistance has now been adjusted upwards between 3,052 to 3,333.


ATIR Market Report

69

Straits Times Index (Singapore) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

2,650

2,576

2,900

3,270

Last High on 09/02/08 Average LOw on 13/10/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

2712.15 2763.42 2125.21 1455.47 2605.5830 2650.3425 2073.1917 2400.5820

3000

2500

2000

1500

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

16.4133 11.4989 4.9144

100 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 61.36

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

2008

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A trading buy is raised given its tentative breakout, safeguarded by a protective stop to be placed at 2,650. Its previous pattern’s height of 200 points may suggest a potential target of 2,900 and hopefully higher.

The STI breaches its patterns resistance Singapore Straits Times Index managed to break above its 2,707 resistance and re-acknowledges its advance. This should lend it more support to try to wrestle back upwards so long as no supportive platforms are violated. Upside targets are revised to 2,900 to 3,270. But protective stops have to be placed at 2,650 as no buildup in upward momentum has yet been seen and as such can still be gripped by corrective pressure. If upward momentum can build (by ways of a widening MACD indication) then expect prices to slowly advance towards its indicated targets.

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

21,000

20,300

23,370

24,000

Last High on 10/07/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

21999.08 22250.35 16721.24 10676.29 20611.9707 21023.5293 16417.0664 18931.6406

24000

22000

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

258.2383 186.8720 71.3663

0 -1000 100

RSI on Close (14) 63.24

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

2008

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

2009

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

Hang Seng cascades upwards The Hang Seng index successfully bounced above its supportive platform and pushed to a new recent high. Its channel has however slowed and composes a less aggressive stand – promoting tighter range bound swings for the moment. Short term support recalibrated to 21,000 followed by 20,300. While its upside targets are controlled by resistance targets of 23,370 then 24,000 respectively. Thus a range trade of its channel can still be maintained as supportive actions still hold.

Strategy: A Hold or range trade is advised for the HSI as the short and medium term trends are angling upwards. A support stop is placed at 21,000 this being the 32-day moving average which could be used as a trading buy window when prices show proximity to it. Similarly use this 21,000 as a support stop price.

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


70

ATIR Market Report

Kospi (South Korea) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

1,600

1,500

1,723

1,800

Last High on 09/23/09 Average LOw on 10/27/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

1800

1658.99 1723.17 1333.02 892.16 1598.9275 1649.8397 1318.7296 1494.2915

1600

1400

The Kospi corrects but bounces on support

1200

The Kospi drove into a corrective bout but managed to foster a rebound over support. Its trendline (new channel low) and 65-day (quarterly) Moving Average all aided the supportive presence and acknowledged the lift it had recently seen. This however should be watched, given the break of a short term trendline, just in case some support failure is further displayed. The index should keep its support structure at 1,600 solid and unpunctured to properly effect a recovery pattern.

1000

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

2.4344 6.1507 -3.7163

0 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 54.74

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 30

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30 May 29

2008

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold or range trade is given to the Kospi so long as its major trendline holds secure at 1,600. Its range should be open to demonstrate a recovery towards 1,700-1,723.

All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

4,650-4,580

4,470

5,000

5,250

Last High on 09/02/08 Average Low on 03/10/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

6000

4862.50 5250.40 3992.58 3090.80 4469.3940 4648.5688 3869.2412 4150.5146

5500

5000 4862.50 4648.57 4469.39

4150.51

4000 3869.24

3500

3000 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

72.3865 65.3309 7.0555

72.3885 97678

-200 100

RSI on Close (14) 68.91

68.91

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

2008

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold is still offered looking at some lightening closer to next resistance at 5,000. Use reactions that close in on support (4,650-4,580) as better windows to buy back. And place a support stop at the recent low of 4,580.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | NOVEMBER 2009

Australia, up and overstretched‌ The All Ordinaries index proceeds to carry itself quite powerfully, but touches the upper boundary of its channel. This may force the index to show some choppy reactions but try to keep its upward composure clear and open to touch major resistance at 5,000. Short term risk is slightly elevated now that prices have roughly demonstrated an 8-day advance to a new recent high – which happens to stand near major resistance. Support is placed closer to 4,650 and 4,580.


ATIR Market Report

71

Dow Jones Industrials (US) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

9,683

9,522

10,100 - 10,460

11,200 13000

Last High on 09/02/08 Average Low on 03/06/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

10062.94 11790.17 8844.11 6469.95 9455.6514 9683.6064 8569.1602 8915.7920

12000

11000

10062.94 9683.61 9455.65

8915.79 8569.16

8000

7000

111.2284 86.7306 24.4978

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

111.2284

-400 100

RSI on Close (14) 69.88

68.88

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30 Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

2008

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: The Dow should be handled with a range trade offer, looking at some profit taking near its channels highs 10,100-10,460 and waiting for a buyback near support closer to 9,683. A major support stop should be placed at its trendline support of 9,522.

The Dow stands near high range The Dow Jones Industrials has proved its worth and has touched new recent highs but is standing close to its range highs. This likely resistance may pose as a short term problem and may provide another excuse to show a reaction. Moreover overbought levels are starting to show (RSI stands at 70%) which may make breaking above 10,100-10,460 little difficult up until a new wind up pattern can be shown to ease overbought levels. Allow for such a correction to offer a better buy window given the state of its extendedness.

NASDAQ (US) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

2,070

2,040

2,190-2,250

2,473

Last High on 08/22/08 Average Low on 03/09/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

2173.29 2417.63 1771.71 1265.52 2035.8828 2095.4714 1717.5790 1896.6018

2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200 MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

26.3429 22.9608 3.3821

0 -100 100

RSI on Close (14) 67.07

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

2008

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold or range trade is issued for the index as it proceeds to climb the staircase of its channel. A support stop is raised to 2,070 in prospect for a rally move to 2,190 or 2,473.

NASDAQ closes in on channel highs The NASDAQ managed to rally strongly once again forcing its way back to a new recent high. A channel has controlled the pace of the advance but this could prove to be an issue into the short term as prices have managed close in on its range highs. This may instigate a choppy orientation in price but with good chance of prices hitting its high side targets. Momentum has not been too strong and as such may keep its ranged swing intact and not too open to show acceleration at this point. Thus a gradual and protracted advance may still be intact of the Nasdaq.

NOVEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT


72

ATIR Market Report

S&P 500 (US) Support 1

Support 2

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

1,050

1,020

1,100 - 1,120

1,265

Last High on 10/08/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)

1400

1096.56 1303.04 940.93 666.79 1022.0031 1050.5735 907.3235 961.2699

1300

1200

The SP500 proceeds with ranged recovery

1100 1000

900

800

700

MACD on Close (12,26) Signal on Close (9) MACD2 on Close

13.7369 10.8759 2.8610

0 -50 100

RSI on Close (14) 68.52

50

Aug 29

Sept30

Oct 31

Nov 28

Dec 31

Jan 30

Feb 27

Mar 31

2008

Apr 30

May 29

Jun 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sept 30

2009

Strategy: A Hold or range trade is issued – looking for entries into pullbacks or dips that effect some narrowing in present overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is preferably called for with short term support now carried at 1,050. Upside targets picture a potential swing to 1,120 and 1,265.

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The SP500 recently engaged a new recent high testing its trading range high. A channeled range may give away to a possible resistance break but slightly overbought conditions may thwart this possibility. A channel range has locked prices into the last few months and has not breached this controlled swing as of yet. But as long as the channel holds and no divergences show, the capacity for the index to continue on cascadingly upwards along its bounds is quite good. Observe its range limits for the meantime.

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