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From the Editors Desk Wow! Doesn’t time fly quickly. You’re now reading our second issue of Asian Tigers monthly magazine. The first issue was distributed to eleven countries throughout Asia and we are steadfastly preparing to grow the circulation globally within the coming months. Every seasoned investor knows the best way to obtain up to date and pertinent information is to read about it. Whether it be online, or in print. We now offer you both. You can also read Asian Tigers online at www.asiantir.com We are pleased to bring to our readers expert opinions and timely information that is presented in mediums that are both easy to read and pleasant to the eye.
Asian Tigers Editor in Chief Charles Greene
Managing Editor Mark Wayne
Contributors
Chris Champion David Bowden Steve Lunt Jack Dixon John Dizon Bruce Curran
Happy reading – and investing.
Daniel Chow Michael Wilson Ian Fraser
Charlie Greene Editor in Chief
Circulation Manager Bonnie Tsang
Production Manager Ferdie Ng
Design & Layout Paolo Yabao
編輯寄語
Design Assistant Chris Wood
時光飛逝，《亞洲虎》月刊第二期又與讀者們見面了。 第一期《亞洲虎》雜誌行銷亞洲十一個國家，未來數月我們將精心籌備，逐步 把《亞洲虎》推向世界各地。 精明的投資者總是知道如何巧妙獲取最新的財經資訊，有人喜歡線上瀏覽，有 人中意平面傳媒。《亞洲虎》讓您魚與熊掌兼得，您可登入www.asiantir.com， 線上瀏覽《亞洲虎》。 我們願為讀者奉上專業見解和即時資訊，以精緻的媒體為您帶來閱讀的享受。 祝您閱讀愉快，投資順利！ 主編 Charlie Greene 謹啟
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Contents
China
High Stakes in the Iron Ore Business 14
23
Philippines
17
27 Singapore
Malaysia
33 Pirates!
Features 11 The Four Asian Tigers: On the Tail of Economic Prominence 亞洲四小虎 虎虎生風 作者 / by Jack Dixon
14 High Stakes in the Iron Ore business 豪賭鐵礦石 作者 / by Chris Champion
17 Najib Takes Control of Malaysia 馬來西亞：納吉漸入佳境 作者 / by David Bowden
23 A Tapestry of Change 變中求勝 作者/by Bruce Curran
27 Singapore: A Powerful Competitor for World’s Leading Financial Centre 新加坡: 國際金融中心的有力競爭者 作者/by Ian Fraser
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
30 Tora! Tora! Tora! A New War in the Pacific
On the Cover:
虎！虎！虎！ 主標：新太平洋戰爭 作者 / by John Dizon
33 Pirates Ahoy! 盜版兇猛 作者 / by Steve Lunt
37 Solar Energy from Scrap 變廢為寶: 從多晶矽到太陽能 作者 / by Michael Wilson
40 The Magic of Saving
20 A Poor Sense of Timing 「選」不逢時
儲蓄的魔力
作者 / By Michael Wilson
作者 / by Bruce Curran
43 Emulating the Style of Fundamental Investor Rockstars: Market Multiples 追隨價值投資大師的風範： 市場乘數估值法 作者 / by Daniel Chow
Departments 8
The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲 作者 / by Chris Champion
46 Technical Overview of Markets 50 ATIR Market Report
Asian Tiger News
The 數字的遊戲
Numbers
Game 專欄作者/by Chris Champion
is, at worst, going to experience a small one. Technically, on the two consecutive quarters of negative growth definition, it won’t suffer one at all. Access Economics predicts the economy will actually grow slightly this financial year.
儘管全世界都深陷大衰退的泥潭，但即 便從最壞的角度看，澳洲所受的衝擊也是 很小。從技術上講，經濟連續兩個季度負 增長即為衰退，而澳洲甚至還沒有過一個 季度的萎縮。事實上，Access Economics預 測澳洲經濟本財年將實現輕微增長。
Don’t blink, you’ll miss the recession 別眨眼，不然你會錯過衰退
Economic forecast group Access Economics gave Australia a lousy new year’s welcome when it issued a warning in early January 2009 that the country needed to prepare for fiscal shock. Batten down the hatches, they said, because the fastest economic slowdown the country has ever seen is headed this way. 2009年1月初，經濟預測機構Access Economics發表的一份報告讓剛過完新年的 澳洲人心情沉重。報告中警告說，澳洲須 做好準備迎接挑戰，因為經濟就要以前所 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
未有的速度衰退下去。
Leaving aside the semantic wisdom of talking about fast slowdowns, Access Economics has now, just seven months later, issued another statement saying the worst is behind for Australia. The fast slowdown, it appears, has slowed. Fast. 時隔七個月後，Access Economics對快速 衰退之說閉口不提，現在又發出一份報告 稱澳洲已度過最壞時候。看來「快速」的 衰退已經「放慢」了，當真是神速
While the rest of the world experiences a big recession, Australia
Access director Chris Richardson credits Australia’s position to China’s early recovery and what he describes as the “remarkable resilience of Aussie mums” spending more now than when the crisis hit.
Access董事Chris Richardson把澳洲的穩 健表現歸功於中國經濟提早復甦，以及「 澳洲媽媽們的堅強毅力」——無懼危機敢 於消費
“Certainly the wheels could have fallen off the Australian economy in the wake of the collapse of the global banking system last September, and the wheels did fall off a number of other very important economies around the world,” he said. “Unemployment still goes up from here and profits fall further from here and business spending falls away — there’s still a lot of pain left. But the most
Asian Tiger News
dangerous time is over.”
「去年9月份全球銀行系統崩潰後，澳洲 的經濟車輪原本會就此停滯。事實上全球 多個重要經濟體確已止步不前，」他說： 「失業率飆升，盈利下滑，企業開支萎縮 — 直到現在還是痛苦萬分。好在最兇險的 時刻已經過去。」
China’s early recovery, and the flowthrough benefits for Australia, have been underlined by the news on July 16 that the Chinese economy grew by 7.9 per cent in the June quarter, up from 6.1 per cent the previous quarter and ending a two-year run of progressively slower growth. Australian media quoted HSBC chief economist for China, Qu Hongbin, as saying, “Commodity exporting nations like Australia, [are] probably [in] the best position to benefit from China’s recovery going forward.” 中國經濟的提早復甦及其對澳洲經濟的 益處，在7月16日的新聞中得到體現。報 道指，截至6月份這一季，中國經濟增長 7.9%，相比上季度增幅為6.1%，結束了兩 年來經濟增長逐漸減速的局面。澳洲媒體 引述滙豐銀行中國區首席經濟學家屈宏斌 的話說：「諸如澳洲這樣的商品出口國可 說是中國復甦的最大受益者。」
Good management or good luck? Australians aren’t asking.
是高明的管理還是好運氣？澳洲人肯定 不想問。
Recovery lesson 奇思妙想
A medium-sized Australian banking group has turned potentially bad publicity into good by finding an innovative way not to sack staff. 澳洲一家中型銀行發明了一個不裁員的 好辦法，巧妙地保住了顏面。
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank was feeling bottom-line pressure due to
declining lending activity, and was staring at what seemed inevitable staff cuts. Faced with similar pressures, Australia’s biggest banks had done pretty much what you’d expect: the ANZ bank shed almost 1000 jobs, the Commonwealth shifted jobs offshore and the National Australia Bank closed branches. 因為放款萎縮，本迪戈阿德萊德銀行 （Bendigo and Adelaide Bank）一度面臨盈 利壓力，裁員似乎不可避免。同樣處於 水深火熱之中，澳洲的其他銀行巨頭拿 出的對策，不用說也能猜出個大概：澳 新銀行（ANZ）裁員近千，聯邦銀行（ Commonwealth）把崗位轉移到國外，澳洲 國民銀行（National Australia Bank）則是裁 撤分行。
The Bendigo found a way to make news for positive reasons: it sacked no-one, and
instead asked each of its 4000 staff to take 10 days of unpaid leave over the next 12 months. Bank spokesman Owen Davies described the unpaid leave initiative as “the next generation of thinking around managing expenses’’. 本迪戈銀行想到一個製造正面新聞的辦 法：誰都不解僱，而是要求4,000名員工 在未來12個月無薪休假10天。該行發言人 Owen Davies說無薪休假是「管理開支的新 思維」。
Unified resistance 「統一」抵制
We were speaking last week to an Australian who runs a unified communications consultancy. The big names in the unified communications
They said... 名人名言 ... “Money is like a sixth sense without which you can not make a complete use of the other five.” — W. Somerset Maugham
「金錢就像第六感，沒有它，其他五感統統發揮 不出來。」— 索默斯特·毛姆 (W. Somerset Maugham) JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
10 Asian Tiger News industry, or UC as they call it, are Cisco, Microsoft, Nortel, Siemens, Alcatel and IBM, and what they are offering is integrated hardware and systems — all sorts of bells, whistles and boxes to bring together your phone, fax, email, videoconferencing, text and instant messaging functions.
上星期，我們跟一個經營統一通訊系統 諮詢公司的澳洲人有過一席談話。說起 統一通訊（unified communication，簡稱 UC），思科，微軟，北電，西門子，阿 爾卡特和IBM都是這個行業如雷貫耳的名 字，他們的產品是一體化硬件和系統 — 就 是用各種各樣的鈴聲，提示音和對話框， 把電話，傳真，電郵，視像會議，文本和 即時通訊功能組合在一起。
There’s just one snag. According to the Australian expert, chief executives listen happily while he spells out the savings in money and time that UC can bring, but baulk — and we mean a bug-eyed digging in like a kid clutching a favourite fluffy toy — when they learn that the first thing to go will be their phone. No! The technology may be five years out of date but that’s one impressive unit and, anyway, he’s only just worked out what all the flashing lights mean! 只有一個障礙，這位澳洲專家說，當聽 到UC既省時又省錢的時候，那些高管們個
A MOMENT IN HISTORY
個眉開眼笑；可當得知第一件事就是丟掉 手裏的電話時，他們的眼神就像一個緊抓 住最愛的絨毛玩具不放的孩子。不不不！ 這電話也許是五年前的舊東西，但卻叫人 難以割捨，況且他剛剛才弄懂閃光燈究竟 怎麼用！
Think of it like giving up cigars or sugar in your coffee, says the consultant. Unified communications is good for your budget and good for your wellbeing. With a little adjustment, your business will be healthier and more efficient. And
史上一刻
think of all that extra desk top real estate once you ditch the clunky phone. 這位顧問說，這就好比讓你戒煙，或者 不再往咖啡裏放糖。統一通訊對你的預算 和健康都有好處，只要一點改變，你的業 務就能變得更穩健，更高效。想一想，丟 掉不值錢的電話，新添的電腦還可算作一 筆資產。
Spoken like a true consultant. But if he so much as looks at my phone ... 這是一個顧問的肺腑之言，可如果他也 這樣盯著我的手機…|AT|
People are struggling to find
new ways to describe the impact of the information age on today’s society, and the speed of the changes we are seeing. Nothing in economic history has ever moved as fast as, or had a greater impact on us the the information age. Right? Not according to Austrian economist Peter Drucker (1909-2005). The Industrial Revolution, Drucker said, moved at least as fast in the same time span, and had probably an equal impact if not a greater one. If history weren’t so far in the past, it would be easier to keep it in perspective.
人們絞盡腦汁想新詞來描繪資訊時代對現代社會之影響，還有我們正在經歷 的飛速變革。在經濟史上，從沒有什麼事物的發展如資訊時代這般飛快，亦 沒有什麼如資訊時代這般對我們有如此巨大的影響。 是這樣嗎？不是。奧地利經濟學家德魯克（Peter Drucker，1909-2005）說 過，放到相同的時間跨度內，工業革命的前進速度絲毫不差，其影響不說更 深遠，也算是平分秋色。 假如歷史不是太久的話，這句話應該不難理解。
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Economy
11
Kicker Head: The Four Asian Tigers Main Title : On the Tail of Economic Prominence By Jack Dixon
They are small but terrible
– four Asian centres reputed worldwide not for political prowess but for economic might. They doggedly pursued exceptionally lofty growth rates and industrialization at break-neck speed in the early 1960s through to 1990s. At the turn of the century, they metamorphosed into well-oiled generators of wealth and prominently advanced economies in their corner of the globe. 他們國土雖小卻實力超群，他們沒有舉足 輕重的政治影響力，卻憑藉經濟奇跡揚名 世界。從60年代初到90年代，他們矢志追 求經濟增長，奔向工業化。世紀之交，他 們儼然成為高速運轉的財富發動機，以及 本地區首屈一指的發達經濟體。
They are the Four Asian Tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Invariably dubbed “Asia’s Four Little Dragons” in China, all four territories have at different milestones in history been under the Chinese cultural sphere of influence: Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have dominant Chinese populations; while South Korea served as a tributary state to Imperial China, eclectically absorbing choice aspects of the Chinese culture. Having developed a genuinely educated and
expertly skilled workforce, they have specialized in economic areas where they unilaterally assumed for themselves unique competitive niches over all the other regions in Asia – Hong Kong and Singapore emerged as leading international financial centres; South Korea and Taiwan stepped up as world leaders in information technology.
他們便是「亞洲四小虎」：香港、新加 坡、韓國、台灣。中國人稱之為「亞洲四 小龍」，他們都在不同的歷史時期受過中 國文化的薰陶：香港、台灣和新加坡絕大 部份人口是華人；而韓國歷史上曾是中華 帝國的藩國，吸收了中華文化的精華。受 過良好教育和技能高超的勞動人口，使他 們得以在經濟領域一展所長，掌握了其他 亞洲國家難以企及的競爭優勢。結果，香 港和新加坡崛起為國際金融重鎮，韓國和 台灣則在全球資訊科技產業笑傲群雄。
On the Heels of Japan 師從日本
The philosophical underpinnings of the phenomenal economic successes of the Four Asian Tigers are rooted in a business tradition called “Industrial Harmony,” which was invented and developed with the fullest of intentions by Japan over the last century. Accounting
for Japan’s very own tale of success, this unique “culture of harmony” came into fruition in 1919 with the creation of a semi-bureaucratic organization called the Kyochokai (Cooperation and Harmony Society), which was tasked with meeting the needs of an emerging industrial society. The Kyochokai was at the helm of attempting to define the values vital to a new Japanese-style industrial society against the backdrop of great social upheavals in Industrial Europe. The result: an “invented” tradition that has played a key role in the evolution and character of Japanese economic values and behavior of social peace for economic development. 亞洲小四虎的經濟奇跡，其背後哲學根 植於上世紀起源於日本的商業傳統——「 勞資和諧」。以1919年問世的半官方組織 「Kyochokai」（合作社）為標誌，這種 獨特的「和諧文化」推動日本走上成功之 路。合作社的使命是滿足一個新興工業化 社會的需要。面對工業化歐洲的社會動盪 不安的現實，合作社需要界定順應全新的 日本式工業化社會的價值觀，而「勞資和 諧」便是那時開創的傳統，它對日本人經 濟價值觀的演進和特質，以及作為經濟發 展之保障的社會安定，都起到過關鍵的作 用。
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
12
Economy
Economic success in Modern Japan followed the existence of harmonious labor-management relations fostered by the Kyochokai. Challenging the so-called “unilinear” theories of modernization prevalent in the West, this one-of-akind Japanese experience lies in the propagation of a self-imposed type of modernity sharply divergent from that found in Western countries. It is based incredulously upon a re-affirmation of ancient Confucian values and native Japanese traditions of harmony, selfsacrifice and non-individualism applied into the pursuit of a common cause. Japan focused on long-term growth, scrupulous market evaluation and process engineering, which now are well regarded as the cornerstones of its economic development. And this, too, became the Grund – the foundation of “Asian political economy.” 現代日本的經濟成就歸功於合作社開創 的和諧勞資關係。有別於主導西方現代化 進程的「單線演化論」，日本走的是一條 自發的現代化演進之路，可以說與西方國 家迥異。它的根基是對古代儒家文化價值 觀的重新發揚，還有日本民族以和為貴、 為了共同事業甘於自我犧牲和毫不利己的 精神。日本人注重長遠發展，細心評價市 場以及生產工藝的工程化，這被公認為是 國家經濟發展的基石，也由此形成一種因 循傳統禮教的文化，這便是「亞洲政治經 濟」的基礎。
Legends Whispered
口口相傳的奇跡
Following on he tail of Japan’s experience that propelled the strictly disciplined nation to economic prominence, the Four Asian Tigers set about re-modeling their economic structures. And out of their almostinstantaneous successes was born two legends – the “Miracle of the Han River” and the “Taiwan Economic Miracle” – both furtively whispered into the ears
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
of economic planners struggling to move their underdeveloped countries forward.
spirit, while serving as a role model for many developing countries.
The Miracle on the Han River was South Korea’s Golden Age of highly accelerated economic growth, industrialization, technological achievement, urbanization, modernization and democratization from the first Fiveyear plan in 1962 to the Asian financial crisis in 1997. In less than forty years, a feat thought impossible, the country transformed itself from the ashes of the Korean War to a wealthy developed country, growing to become the world’s 13th largest economy and gaining influence as an economic power. It more specifically pointed to the economic growth of its capital city – Seoul, through which the Han River flows – into a centre of business and commerce in Asia, having one of the most advanced technological infrastructure anywhere else. This reputation carries on to the present as a result of the country’s continued rapid growth in the 21st century, reflecting the Koreans’ national pride and “can-do”
The Taiwan Miracle, on the other hand, refers to the quick industrialization and rapid economic growth which characterized Taiwan during the latter half of the past century. Following the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s, the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan with the entire precious metal and foreign currency reserves of mainland China. Those reserves helped to establish a gold-standard currency, stabilizing prices and reducing hyperinflation. More than the money, KMT also took to the island many of the Chinese intellectual and business elites
目睹日本這個極度刻板的民族的經濟崛 起，亞洲四小虎開始重塑自己的經濟架 構。就在他們幾乎同時取得成功的過程 中，誕生了兩個奇跡——「漢江奇跡」與 「台灣經濟奇跡」。在那些迫切想要帶領 自己的落後國家擺脫貧困的經濟規劃者當 中，這兩個奇跡被傳為佳話。
「漢江奇跡」發生在韓國的黃金年 代——從1962年第一個「五年計劃」開 始，直到1997年亞洲金融危機為止，這段 時期韓國的經濟蒸蒸日上，實現了工業化 和科技飛躍，城市化、現代化和民主化進 程加速。不到四十年的時間裏，整個國家 從韓戰之後的廢墟中崛起，變成一個富裕 的發達國家，躋身世界第13大經濟體，經 濟影響力舉足輕重，完成了一個匪夷所思 的壯舉。首都首爾，漢江穿流而過，其經 濟成就尤可圈點，現已成為亞洲的商業重 鎮，擁有不遜世界任何地方的先進技術基 礎設施。邁進二十一世紀，國家經濟繼續 高速發展，續寫「漢江奇跡」，把大韓民 族的自豪感和不服輸精神體現得淋漓盡 致，亦為許多發展中國家樹立典範。
Economy
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他們通過制定政府政策如提高關稅壁壘 等，抑制國內消費；同時大力改進各級教 育系統，不懈提升國民教育水準以增強生 產力，立法確保所有兒童接受初等和中等 教育，投入全力完善大專院校體系。
from the mainland. It therefore had the necessary resources to jump-start its own economic endeavors, plus a lucky break from the Japanese – they had built up the agricultural and industrial infrastructure as well as chemical, material and food reserves on the island. It wasn’t long before Taiwan developed alongside Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong to become one of the Four Asian Tigers. 「台灣奇跡」肇始於上世紀後半葉台灣 的迅速工業化和經濟騰飛。十九世紀四十 年代，國民黨政權於內戰中失利，潰逃至 台灣，帶走了當時整個中國的貴重金屬和 外匯儲備。幸虧有這些儲備，當局建立了 金本位貨幣，穩定了物價，緩解了惡性通 脹。除金錢之外，國民黨還把國內的許多 知識分子和商業精英從大陸擄到台灣，再 加上戰後日本留下的工農業基礎設施，以 及化工、原料和食品儲備，這一切都為台 灣的經濟騰飛立下汗馬功勞。最終，緊跟 新加坡、韓國和香港的腳步，台灣晉身亞 洲四小虎之列。
industrialized nations of the West.
眼見日本傳奇般的工業化成就，亞洲四 小虎蓄勢待發，他們大膽揚棄了兩次世界 大戰之後被不發達世界奉為圭臬的進口替 代模式，轉而走上以出口為導向的經濟發 展之路，向西方發達國家大規模出口質優 價廉的商品。從後來日本的經歷來看，此 舉無疑是明智的。
They set out to discourage domestic consumption by instituting government policies such as high tariffs. They continually sought attainment of better
Export-driven Model
出口導向模式
In the wake of Japan’s legendary ascent to industrial stardom, the Four Asian Tigers crouched. Now wiser because of the Japanese experience, they wildly cast aside the economically stagnant practice of import substitution, which was the model advocated in the undeveloped world following the two World Wars. They pursued an export-driven model of economic development, dumping good-quality and stiffly competitivepriced finished products into the highly
and higher levels of education as a means of enhancing productivity by focusing on the constant improvement of education systems at all levels. They mandated heavy emphasis on ensuring that all children attended elementary education and compelled the pursuit of the secondary level. They poured resources into improvements in the collegiate and university systems.
Though still of meager means in the 1960s, these nations had a wealth of cheap labor unmatched anywhere in the developed world. Together with educational reforms, they acquired the ability to leverage this combination into cheap but efficient and highly productive working machines. On the other hand, they resolutely committed to egalitarianism in the form of land reform, promoting property rights and ensuring that agricultural workers did not become disgruntled. Additionally, policies of agricultural subsidies and tariffs on agricultural products were successfully prosecuted. 儘管六十年代仍在貧困中掙扎，這些國 家卻有著發達世界難以企及的廉價勞動 力，再加上教育改革，使他們得以把國民 轉化為低成本、高效益和具有高度生產力 的生產機器。與此同時，他們毅然發起土 地平等化改革，保障人民財產權，防止農 業工人產生不滿情緒。而農產品的補貼和 關稅政策亦得到成功貫徹和執行。
Through the years, these four Asian regions have maintained strong industrial economies that have set them apart from all other countries in Asia. Despite the emergence of their neighbors as equally prolific economic communities – notably Mainland China, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, to which the world increasingly shifts its attention because of their perceived economic transformations – these business bastions still remain as the world’s fastest growing industrialized economies. The Four Asian Tigers just keep on roaring. 經過多年努力，亞洲四小虎造就了傲視 亞洲的工業化經濟。儘管面臨近鄰的經濟 崛起——中國內地、泰國、越南、馬來西 亞和印尼的經濟改革舉世矚目——但他們 依舊是世界上增長最快的工業化經濟體， 現在的亞洲四小虎可謂雄風不減當年。|AT|
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
豪賭鐵礦石
High Stakes in the
作者/ by Chris Champion
iron ore business
The Australian Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd speaks fluent Mandarin. He has a Chinese-Australian son-in-law. He was described in 2007 by The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper as a “living bridge to China as it emerges as the second superpower”. 澳洲總理陸克文能講一口流利的中文，膝 下有一中澳混血的女婿。2007年，他曾被 《悉尼晨報》形容為「連接中國這個崛起 中的第二超級大國的活橋樑」。
Australia has very strong trading ties with China, especially in the area of resources, and Australia’s pain during the global financial crisis has been immeasurably softened by the early recovery of the Chinese economy.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
澳洲與中國有十分緊密的貿易聯繫， 尤其是在資源領域，所以中國經濟的提 早復甦極大地緩解了澳洲在世界金融危 機中的困境。
Since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister in December 2007, it has been a such sweet and harmonious relationship that it was easy to imagine large amounts of affection and largesse leaving Beijing bound for Canberra, where they coalesce into a pink cloud of special friendship. 自從2007年12月陸克文就任澳洲總理以 來，堪培拉與北京度過了一段甜美的蜜 月期，不難想像，在惺惺相惜和不拘小 節的心態下，雙方之間培養出一種特殊 的友誼。
Anybody who did imagine that has just had a rude awakening. The cloud never
existed, friendship has been put on ice, and Australia has been firmly put in its place.
然而事情的發展總是出其不意。現在， 蜜月期走到盡頭，友誼降至冰點，中澳關 係又退回原地。
The subject of discontent is Stern Hu, by all reports a mild-mannered man, a native of Tianjin province, Stern Hu of Rio Tinto Australian citizen since 1994 and a senior executive with Australian mining giant Rio Tinto since 1996. 讓雙方撕破臉的導火索是胡士泰。綜 合各方報道來看，此人原籍中國天津，
Economy
當局逮捕。此事可謂一石激起千層浪，一 時間各界反應有震驚，有憤慨，有困惑也 有鋪天蓋地的口誅筆伐。
There are three ways to look at this case: from the points of view of the Chinese government, the Australian government, and public opinion.
此案可從中國政府，澳洲政府和公眾三 個角度觀之。
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
1994年加入澳洲國籍，1996年出任礦業巨 頭力拓公司高管。據說他性情溫和，平易 近人。
As of July 5, 2009, he is also a spy, according to the Chinese authorities who arrested him. The arrest of has caused shock, outrage, perplexity and a lot of finger-wagging. 2009年7月5日，胡因涉嫌間諜罪被中國
The Chinese government’s position is unclear. Initially, they said Mr Hu had been bribing Chinese officials to reveal secret trade information, and they had all the evidence necessary to bring charges of espionage. As of July 20, however, according to statements by Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, the charges are “likely” to be downgraded to commercial crimes. As of July 21, 16 days after he was detained, Mr Hu had yet to be charged with any offence. 中國政府態度曖昧。先是說胡賄賂中國 官員騙取商業機密，當局已掌握控告胡犯 間諜罪的確鑿證據。但是到了7月20日， 澳洲外長史密斯又講話說，有關指控「可 能」被減輕到商業犯罪。截至7月21日，胡 已被押16天，但仍未被控以任何罪名。
The Australian government’s position is unenviable. For many days after the news of Mr Hu’s detention broke, Kevin Rudd
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There are three ways to look at this case: from the points of view of the Chinese government, the Australian government, and public opinion said he was making enquiries through appropriate channels and there was little more he could do. Meanwhile the Australian Opposition was saying there was a lot more Kevin Rudd could do, such as picking up a telephone and asking Beijing, in Mandarin if he pleased, what the hell was going on. 澳洲政府是進退兩難。胡士泰案發後多 日，陸克文說他已透過適當管道過問此 事，著實無計可施，但澳洲反對黨卻說陸 克文根本不必畏手畏腳，不如操起電話質 問北京究竟想幹什麼——若是願意的話， 乾脆在電話裏講中文好了。
This photo and below, Rio Tinto’s mining in Kenstrel mines, Central Queensland, Australia
this PHOTOGRAPH & above © RIO TINTO
Chinalco’s factories in China
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
When Mr Rudd finally stood up and publicly stated an Australian sense of disquiet, and urged China to clarify the situation as quickly as possible, Beijing fired back with a faceslapping mind your own business.
a year to feed its massive steel-making demand.
這筆賭注不可謂不高。去 年澳洲對華出口總額有260億 美元，其中鐵礦石就佔145億 美元。中國的鐵礦石資源稀 缺，每年都需要進口大量鐵 礦石來滿足龐大的鋼鐵產業 需求。
Professor Jiang Wenran Professor Jiang Wenran, 當陸克文終於站出來公開 of Canada’s University of 表達澳洲的不滿並敦促中國 Alberta, an expert on China’s minerals 儘快澄清事件時，換來的卻是北京不留情 and energy extraction policies, and a 面的強硬回應。
The third view is the cacophony of public opinion, some it informed, some of it opportunistic mud-slinging. But it is amongst these opinions, away from the diplomacy of politicians, that objective perspectives are to be found, especially amongst comments linking the arrest of Hu Stern to two recent setbacks for China: the recent decision by Rio Tinto to walk away from a closer tie-up with China’s state-owned Chinalco, and difficulties in the current round of iron ore price negotiations with Rio Tinto, the world’s largest exporter of iron ore. The leader of the Rio Tinto team at those negotiations was Stern Hu. 公眾的觀點是眾說紛紜，這當中不乏一 些有見地的分析，亦有別有用心之人的抹 黑言論。縱觀各家之言，拋開政治外交的 因素不論，可以看出幾絲端倪，尤其是那 些把胡士泰被捕與近來中國遭受的兩個挫 折聯繫在一起的評論。挫折之一是近期力 拓決定拒絕與中國國企中鋁集團結盟；二 是當前與力拓的鐵礦石價格談判困難重 重。力拓是全球頭號鐵礦石出口商，而率 領力拓團隊參加談判的人正是胡士泰。
personal friend of Stern Hu, says normal business practices in China make it easy, indeed almost necessary, for foreign business people to stray near the line of what might be considered industrial espionage. 作為胡士泰的好友，加拿大阿爾伯塔大 學教授，中國礦產和能源政策專家姜聞然 表示，中國的商業規矩使外國商人很容易 甚至必然迷失在所謂的工業間諜的邊緣。
“The line is quite blurred sometimes between what can be classified as legitimate open commercial information and what are state secrets,” he said, adding that the line could easily be
blurred further by authorities wanting to make a case one way or the other.
他說：「從合法的公開商業信息到國家機 密，這條界限有時十分模糊。」他又稱，當 局翻手為雲覆手為雨，所以也會在這個界 限上做文章。
But Professor Jiang says Mr Hu has also been caught up in bigger issues — local officials have allegedly been creaming off profits for years by acting as middle men in iron ore deals. “Stern Hu is one piece of the puzzle in a bigger picture,” he said.
不過，姜教授認為胡案背後有更大的黑 幕——不少地方官員被指多年來以鐵礦石 交易中間人的角色撈取好處，「胡士泰不過 是冰山一角而已」。
Meanwhile, the Chinese are under increasing pressure as previous iron ore contracts are now lapsed and they are at the mercy of global spot markets until a new contract can be agreed on. With spot prices rising, so are the stakes.
由於原先的鐵礦石合同已經屆滿，中國 正面臨越來越大的壓力，在簽訂新的合同 之前唯有聽憑全球現貨市場的擺佈。 現貨價格越高，賭注也就越大。|AT|
A steel factory in Huaxi Jiangsu, China. The country largely depends on import of iron ore
In other words, is China punishing Rio Tinto for the embarrassment of the Chinalco snub? And (or) is it trying a high-stakes bluff to try to win an advantage in the iron ore price negotiations?
那麼，中國是不是在為中鋁受到的怠慢 而懲罰力拓？以及（或者）是不是想押一 筆駭人的賭注，企圖贏得鐵礦石價格談判 的先機？
The stakes are extraordinarily high. Iron ore made up US$14.5 billion of Australia’s total US$26 billion worth of trade exports to China last year. China, on the other hand, has poor iron ore resources, meaning it has to rely on hundreds of millions of tonnes of imports ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
PHOTOGRAPH © Remko Tanis
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Economy
Najib Takes Control of Malaysia
馬來西亞：納吉漸入佳境 Malaysia’s new prime minister
作者 /by David Bowden
PHOTOGRAPH © fuadabdullah
Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak has been around politics long enough to know that if you are going to make a change and stamp your seal of authority on the political landscape then you have to do this quickly and incisively. As with United States President Obama, observers were keen to assess Najib’s first 100 days in office for signs of the way in which Malaysia’s sixth prime minister was leading his revamped government and the nation in general. 馬來西亞新首相納吉浸淫政壇多年，他深 知若要革舊鼎新並在政治版圖上打下自己 的烙印，就必須雷厲風行，堅決果斷。和 美國總統奧巴馬一樣，觀察家們都想對納 吉的「百日新政」探個究竟，從中研判這 位大馬第六任首相將把他的新政府和整個 國家帶向何方。
When Najib took office on April 3, 2009 his Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government’s stranglehold on Malaysian
politics was being pressured by increasing support for the various opposition parties. Over the past few years opposition has been mounting in the country against the coalition which has dominated and led Malaysian politics for over 50 years. 2009年4月3日納吉上任之際，他領導的 國民陣線（國陣）聯合政府曾在反對黨重
壓下四面楚歌，對政局的掌控有心無力。 過去這幾年，國內反對派勢力漸盛，執掌 大馬政壇半個多世紀的國陣聯盟面臨重重 考驗。
Najib’s policies have been received positively by the bulk of the population and his approval rating has shot up to 65% from just 46% in his first month
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
in office. These figures are derived from 政策（affirmative action policies）偏向馬來 a survey conducted by the independent 族群（包括原住民（Orang Asli）和土生土 Merdeka Centre and suggest that this is 長的東馬來西亞各族，統稱「土著」 a clear sign that most Malaysians support （Bumiputra）），所以有失公平。這個所謂 his decisive leadership in reforming 的「新經濟政策」（New Economic Policy） the country’s economy which has been 出台於1971年，雖然1990年就已壽終正寢， affected by the global downturn. 可如今還是有許多實質的經濟利益流向馬 納吉的政策受到民眾普遍歡迎，他的支 持率從上任首月的46%躍升至65%。這些數 字來自獨立調查機構Merdeka Centro的一次 調查，表明大多數馬來西亞人都支持他們 這位果敢的領袖，以及他對深受全球經濟 衰退衝擊的國民經濟進行的改革。
Perhaps not surprisingly, almost 75% of the nation’s Malay population was satisfied with Najib’s performance. Indians surveyed were equally impressed but only 50% of the nation’s second largest ethnic group, the Chinese, had
Perhaps not surprisingly, almost 75% of the nation’s Malay population was satisfied with Najib’s performance.
been won over by the prime minister’s initiatives. However, a spokesperson from the Merdeka Centre suggested that the figure is more a wait-and-see response.
來西亞社會的某些群體。
Like most other world economies, Malaysia’s economy has been affected by the global economic crisis and pressure was on Najib and his government to kick start the ailing local economy. Najib, who is also the finance minister, recognised the need to free up the economy and quickly set about liberalising various sub sectors of the economy. So far 27 sub-sectors of the services industry have been reformed and the banking and finance industry has been thrown open. 和世界多數經濟體一樣，馬來西亞也深 受全球經濟危機衝擊。納吉和他的政府首 當其衝的要務就是重振本國經濟。身兼財 政部長的納吉承認需要解放經濟，從速開 放經濟中的各個分支部門。迄今服務業已 有27個分支部門被改革，銀行和金融業也 已敞開大門。
Perhaps his boldest step has been to repeal Foreign Investment Committee (FIC) guidelines that many observers consider to have long hampered efforts to attract foreign investors to Malaysia. In effect, the 30% equity requirement for Bumiputra investment for every initial public share offering has been done away with.
並不意外的是，大約有將近75%的馬來族 裔滿意納吉的表現，來自印度族裔的支持 最大膽的舉動當屬廢除外資委員會 率也頗為可觀。然而作為第二大族群的華 （FIC）的有關指引，這些條條框框被許多 裔，卻僅有50%的人讚同首相的舉措，不 觀察家認為是長期以來妨礙外國投資者前 過Merdeka Centro的發言人說有不少人沒有 來大馬投資的絆腳石。與此同時，要求每 表態，而是選擇等等看。 宗首次公開招股必須留出30%股本給土著 Perhaps it’s not surprising that the 投資的規定亦被廢止。
support from Chinese Malaysians isn’t so high as many see the government’s affirmative action policies to bring up the Malay population (and Orang Asli and native East Malaysian communities – known collectively as Bumiputra) as being unfair. Known as the New Economic Policy, it was introduced in 1971 and while officially it ended in 1990, many of the tangible economic benefits that flowed to certain sections of Malaysian society are ongoing. 馬來西亞華人的支持率不那麼高，也許 不足為奇，因為許多人都覺得政府的平權
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
In making the brave move, the prime minister announced at the recent InvestMalaysia Conference 2009 that: “After 19 years, the FIC has failed to achieve its objective of increasing Bumiputra equity to 30%. We need a new instrument which is more robust and investor-friendly.”
在近期的「2009投資大馬大會」 （InvestMalaysia Conference 2009）上，首相 宣佈這一舉措時稱： 「經過十九年的運作， FIC未能實現增加土著股權至30%的目標， 所以我們需要探索一條更具活力和善待投 資者的新路。」
Research indicates that the Bumiputra equity of listed shares on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange stands at only 19.4% mostly because those who were allocated shares in the initial offering sold them almost immediately to make quick profits. Najib pacified any possible Bumiputra outcry by stating that the objective was still to achieve 30% Bumiputra ownership in the long run while ensuring that capital markets became more investor-friendly. He recognised that the role of the FIC had been criticised by certain quarters as it did little to alleviate the plight of the nation’s poor while only enriching a select few. 研究表明土著股權僅佔吉隆坡證券交易 所上市股份的19.4%，主要因為那些在首次 發售中獲分配股份的人，經常立刻就轉手 賣掉股份從中套利。為平息土著群體的不 滿，納吉說此舉的目標仍舊是確保土著股 權在長期內達致30%，同時令資本市場對 投資者更具吸引力。他意識到FIC早已成為 眾矢之的，在扶貧濟困方面毫無建樹，反 而讓少數人從中漁利。
He explained that companies will be required to offer half of the public shareholding spread to Bumiputra investors. Companies currently have to offer the general public 25% of all
Economy
Ex-prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
shares offered during an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
他解釋說，公司將被要求把公眾持股量 的一半發售給土著投資者。現行規定是公 司須把首次公開招股（IPO）時全部股份的 25%發售給公眾。
ex prime minister Mahathir was not so impressed with the new measures...saying they were, “Not going to help anyone; the Indians, Malays or Chinese.” policies, one of Najib’s staunch allies, ex prime minister Mahathir was not so impressed with the new measures and dismissed Najib’s efforts to liberalise the economy and was quoted in the local press as saying they were, “Not going to help anyone; the Indians, Malays or Chinese.”
In making the announcement, Najib stated that the FIC would be replaced with a new investment institution called 新的經濟政策雖然獲得廣泛支持，可是 Ekuiti Nasional Berhad (Ekuinas) to act 納吉的堅定盟友之一 — 前任首相馬哈迪卻 as a private equity fund with an initial 不以為然，他對納吉的經濟自由化舉措反 capital outlay of RM500 million (US$140 應冷淡，當地媒體引述他的話說這些舉措 million). The plan is to grow the fund 20 「對任何人都沒好處，無論印度裔，馬來裔 times to RM10 billion and to focus on 還是華裔」。 investment sectors which provide high However, foreign investors should growth. Najib added: “This is not to help see the policies positively as they will just any Bumiputra company but only no longer have to obtain approval those which are really capable and with for acquisitions and mergers. Foreign calibre.” shareholder limits in existing share 宣佈這個消息時，納吉說FIC將被一 broking firms have also been increased 個名為「國民股權公司」 （Ekuiti Nasional to up to 70% from the previous 49%. Berhad，簡稱Ekuinas）的全新投資機構所 Further reforms now enable 100% 取代。Ekuinas將充當一支私募股權基金， 原始資本為馬幣5億元（1.4億美元）。計劃 把基金規模擴大20倍，達到馬幣100億元， 重點投資於高增長領域。納吉續指： 「此舉 並不只是幫助土著公司，而是要幫助那些 真正有實力，有才能的公司。」
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ownership in the wholesale segment of the fund management industry.
不過，外國投資者應當會歡迎這些政 策，因為他們不必再費盡心思取得兼併收 購的審批。外資參股券商的持股比例限制 已從原先的49%放寬到70%。經過進一步改 革後，基金管理行業的批發業務現已允許 外資100%控股。
Perhaps the government had little choice as Malaysia now competes for limited resources with other investmenthungry nations in the region. Najib and his government were faced with the possibility of the economy shrinking further and reforms were necessary for it to remain competitive. The new economic measures are also designed to change the country’s growth structure by having the services sector lead the way with a planned 75% of GDP up from the current figure of 54%. 其實這也是政府的無奈之舉，因為馬來 西亞要跟區內其他國家爭奪有限的投資來 源。擺在納吉和他的政府面前是經濟的 進一步萎縮，若要保持競爭力，改革勢在 必行。新的經濟政策將通過振興服務業來 調整國家經濟的增長結構，把服務業佔 GDP的比重從目前的54%提升到75%。
In time to come, many economic observers may reflect upon the economic changes recently introduced by the Najib government and reflect upon how these steps were necessary in order to benefit all Malaysians. 今後一定有許多經濟觀察家會審視納吉 政府這次的經濟改革，究竟能給馬來西亞 百姓帶來多少實惠，讓我們拭目以待。|AT|
Jalan Petaling (Petaling Street), is a Chinatown located in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The country is populated by immigrants from different parts of Asia
Najib maintains that the new policy guidelines will ensure a win-win for all and that no Malaysian must feel marginalised or disincentivised. He admitted that achieving this was going to be a tricky balancing act but one that was achievable. 納吉說新的政策方針會帶來多贏的結 果，任何國民都不會感到被邊緣化或冷 落。他承認要達到這一點需要巧妙平衡各 方利益，但這是可以辦到的。
While there has been across the board support for the new economic
photograph © geoff-inOz
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Economy
「選」不逢時
Timing
作者 By Michael Wilson
A Poor Sense of Prime Minister Taro Aso has a lot
riding on the outcome when the Japanese public goes to the polls on 30th August. Having crashed out of favour in a Tokyo local election in July, he has now been forced to put his reputation on the line by calling a full national election. And he could hardly have chosen a worse moment to do it. The Finance Ministry has just released the shock news that revised gross domestic product figures for the first three months of 2009 showed a 3.8% quarterly decline - meaning that Japan’s national output had fallen by a terrifying 14.2% against the previous year. 日本將在8月30日舉行大選，屆時麻生太 郎首相的去留將見分曉。在七月份的東京 都議會選舉慘敗後，麻生決定背水一戰， 宣佈舉行全國大選。可惜他選的時機實在 糟糕透頂，因為財務省剛剛公佈了一個壞 消息：2009年前三個月經修訂國內生產總 值數據顯示這一季的經濟萎縮3.8%。換言 之，整個日本的生產總值較上年下跌了驚 人的14.2%。
Not all analysts are quite so gloomy. We’ve already passed the bottom of the recession, some insist. Exports will soon pick up, and the fiscal effects of a big government stimulus programme in the spring are already showing through. But, for Mr Aso, the risk is that his own voters will simply give up on his leadership and conclude that it’s time for fresh thinking from someone else.
並非所有的分析師都如此悲觀消沉。有人 堅信日本已經走出衰退谷底，出口不久就會 回暖，春季實施的大規模政府刺激計劃亦正 顯現財政效應。然而，讓麻生首相岌岌可危 的是他的選民注定要離他而去，在他們心 中，現在已是改換新思維的時候。
Unfortunately for Mr Aso, it’s the foreign investors and not the domestic ones who are likely to make the critical difference to the economy. It’s perfectly
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
true that foreigners hold barely 10% of Japanese companies’ shares, and less than 8% of Japanese government bonds ( JGBs). But, unlike the Japanese, they are fickle investors who come and go at short notice. They are also acutely sensitive to every tiny movement in the exchange rate, the interest rate and the costs of export goods. That’s where their terrible leverage comes into play.
對麻生來說不幸的是，左右經濟的力量 是外國投資者而非國內投資者。誠然，外 國投資者所持的日本公司股份僅有10%， 手中的日本國債（JGB）還不到8%，可跟 國內投資者不同的是，他們更加變幻無 常，來去匆匆。哪怕是匯率，利率和出口 商品成本稍有波動，他們都極其敏感，這 就是槓桿效應的厲害之處。
Why the Strong Yen Spells Trouble The ‘good news’ is that Japan’s currency has strengthened massively over the last year. The yen/dollar ratio has improved by 15% in the last eleven months, rising from 110 in August 2008 to only 94 in mid-July, and this has attracted vast sums of foreign equity investment. The Nikkei 225 is down by a sobering 30% of its value since July 2008; but in dollar terms the effective loss will have been barely
Economy
“ So, unless we seriously
fear that Tokyo might default on its debts - a possibility which we can safely dismiss - a Japanese bond has obvious charms.
”
half that amount. All of which has made Japan look surprisingly attractive for a US investor who’s seeking safety in times of crisis.
強勢日元為何危機四起 「好消息」是日元去年大幅升值，過往 十一個月日元兌美元上漲15%，從2008年 8月的110，升至今年7月中旬的94，這吸引 了大量的外來股權投資。自2008年7月以 來，日經225指數市值下跌三成，但若換算 成美元，跌幅會縮小一半。因此，對於危 機時期求平安的美國投資者來說，日本無 疑頗具吸引力。
That ‘safety factor’ for foreign investors is the only likely reason why the Nikkei should have rebounded so strongly this year. From a low of barely 7,000 in early
March, the index has soared by more than 30% to 9,400 in mid-July. With a 6% drop in national GDP predicted for this year, and with industrial output down 29.5% in May, there are simply not enough credible reasons to expect the country’s own citizens to have caught the share-buying bug.
外國投資者的避險心理也許是今年日經 指數強勁反彈的唯一原因。該指數從三月 初的低位7,000點，一路飆升到七月中旬 的9,400點，漲幅逾三成。然而，在今年 GDP萎縮6%的預期下，加上五月份的工業 產值驟降29.5%，我們實在找不出令人信服 的理由去期望日本國民熱心購買股票。
This in turn makes today’s strong exchange rate dangerous and risky. The current yen rate is nearly 25% above the level of three years ago, when you could still get 120 yen for a dollar. The question is, is this high level sustainable? And if not, can it be managed downward without risking a panic?
這就給今天的高匯率埋下了危險的伏 筆。現在的日元匯率較三年前高出將近 25%，那時候的1美元可兌換120日元。問題
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是現在的高匯率能否維持 下去？倘若支撐不住，跌 勢能否得到控制，而不 致一發不可收拾？
We might already be seeing the first signs of trouble from abroad. Until recently, foreign investors have been keen buyers of Japan’s vast (US$ 9 trillion) stock of government bonds. The foreigners have been attracted not just by the strengthening yen, but also by the fact that the pitifully low yields that the JGBs carry (typically 1.4% on ten-year paper) are looking less terrible than usual against the 2.2% dividend yield that they’d get from comparable equity investments in Tokyo. So, unless we seriously fear that Tokyo might default on its debts - a possibility which we can safely dismiss - a Japanese bond has obvious charms.
我們似乎看到了外來危機的先兆。直到 前不久，外國投資者都還是龐大的日本國 債（總額達9萬億美元）的熱心買家。之所 以如此著迷，不僅是因為日元升值，還因 為跟東京的可比股權投資股息收益率 （2.2%）相比，日本國債低得可憐的收益率 （10年期債券為1.4%）不再那麼讓人望而
President Barack Obama confers with Prime Minister Taro Aso at the G-8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy, July 8, 2009.
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
卻步。所以，除非害 怕東京欠債不還 （這種可能性基本不存 在），日本債券還是很 有吸引力。
Tokyo cityscape and Tokyo Tower
But the last four weeks have seen a disturbing trend among the foreign hedge fund managers who buy JGBs. Now that the US government’s “stress tests” for US banking have forced America’s institutions to rein in their foreign activities and repatriate their risks, the hedge funds are selling out heavily. The Ministry of Finance reported in July that foreign investors had been net sellers of 8.84 trillion yen (US$95 billion) of JGBs between September and June. And that 2.66 trillion yen had been unloaded during June alone! 然而過去四週，那些購買日本國債的外 國對沖基金經理出現了一種令人不安的苗 頭。由於美國政府對國內銀行業進行「壓 力測試」，迫使美國機構收斂國外活動和 規避風險，導致對沖基金大舉沽售。七月 份財務省報告稱，外國投資者在去年九月 至今年六月期間淨賣出日本國債 8.84萬億 日元（950億美元），僅六月就沽出2.66萬 億日元！ PHOTOGRAPH © Blue Funnies
The final risk comes from ‘carry traders’ - foreigners who borrow money from low-interest countries like Japan and then lend it or invest it in other countries where the returns can be expected to be much stronger. Americans have been borrowing money at Japanese rates and lending it to Australia or even Latin America, for much bigger returns, whereupon they pocket the difference. But now that the yen is strengthening so fast while interest rates and bond yields in other countries are falling, the logic of pinning their money on an obviously overvalued yen is evaporating. We are
PHOTOGRAPH © Blue Funnies
facing the risk of a steep currency correction as the carry trade subsides.
最後一個風險來自 「套利交易者」，也 就是那些從日本等低 利率國家借錢，然後 放貸或投資於其他國 家以獲取更高回報的 外國人。美國投資者 按日本的利率拆借資 金，然後貸款給澳洲 甚至拉美國家，從中 賺取差額回報。可是 現在日元正在迅速升 值，而其他國家的利 率和債券收益率則在 下降，拿自己的錢去 換明顯高估的日元顯 然不合邏輯。套利交易偃旗息鼓後，便有 劇烈的幣值調整風險。
“ A weaker currency
would do much to help the situation
”
That, of course, would be good news for Japanese exporters, who are suffering desperately from the strong yen. Foreign sales were down 41% in May against year-earlier levels, and even sales to China were down 30%. A weaker currency would do much to help the situation.
當然，這對飽受強勢日元之苦的日本出 口商來說無疑是個好消息。五月份出口 額同比驟降41%，甚至對中國的出口也萎 縮30%。日元貶值將十分有助改善當前 形勢。
It’s ironic that the interests of the international financial market should be so directly contrary to the needs of the domestic economy. That is, of course, the way the global marketplace sometimes works. As so many emerging Asian economies have complained over the years. This time, however, Mr Aso will have to explain it to a sceptical electorate of his own…
An anti-Akiba poster says ‘Gone’ in Harajuku, Tokyo, while in Akihabara the Prime Minister is well accepted. The posters headline says ‘Our Taro!’
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
國際金融市場的利益與本國的經濟需求 背道而馳，這真是一樁很有諷刺意味的 事。其實全球化市場就是這個樣子，也無 怪眾多的亞洲新興經濟體多年來抱怨不 休，只不過這回輪到麻生首相向心存疑慮 的選民們解釋一番了…|AT|
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Economy
變中求勝
The Tapestry of Change 作者/by Bruce Curran
The Philippines has discovered a niche market,
and the English speaking world is tuning in to what they locally call the “Sunshine Industry”, it is now one of the very Busiest of Philippine Operations – BPO.
菲律賓人發現了一個縫隙市場，整個英語世界正在把它打造 成所謂的「陽光產業」，這便是時下菲國最熱門的業務之 一——業務流程外判（BPO）。
Business Process Outsourcing 業務流程外判 The concept is a simple one… as a company you find a third party to handle stuff that has to be done and can be done to a high standard often in a foreign country where human talent is freely available, trainable and keen and willing to provide back up services to the biggest and smaller companies. The English speaking world has umpteen companies that are keen to cut costs while maintaining high standards, and USA, UK and Australian companies are joining the long queue for services… and the Philippines is steady and ready to cash in on this critical and lucrative business opportunity. It is clearly a ‘win-win’ situation. After
all 75% of all Fortune 500 companies use ‘outsourcing services’.
這概念不難理解：作為一家公司，你聘請第三方來處理必須而且能 夠高標準完成的工序，這個第三方通常是在國外，那裏有充足、易培 訓和願意為大大小 小的公司提供後援 服務的人才。英語 世界有無數既想削 減成本又想保持高 水準的公司，許多 美國、英國和澳洲 公司都在排隊等候 服務……菲律賓人 正在摩拳擦掌，務 求把握住這個至關 重要的黃金商機。顯而易見，這是一個雙贏格局，畢竟有75%的「財 富500強」公司都採用「外判服務」。
Manila, the capital city of the Philippines, is the shining light, and influential as being the single largest city of BPO operations on earth.
The Wikipedia definition of Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) is: “a form of outsourcing that involves the contracting of the operations and responsibilities of a specific business function (or process) to a third-party service provider. BPO is typically
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Economy
categorized into back office outsourcing - which includes internal business functions such as human resources or finance and accounting, and front office outsourcing - which includes customerrelated services such as contact (call) center services.
「維基百科」對業務流程外判（BPO） 的解釋是： 「一種把特定業務職能（或流程）的運 作和職責轉包給第三方服務供應商的外 判形式。BPO往往分為後勤支援外判—包 括內部業務職能，如人力資源、財務會計 等；以及前線客務外判—包括客戶相關服 務，如聯絡（呼叫）中心服務。
BPO that is contracted outside a company’s country is called offshore outsourcing. BPO that is contracted to a company’s neighboring (or nearby) country is called nearshore outsourcing.
有親西方的開放「文化」，「口音」純正 易懂，人民熱情好客，具備純熟的通訊和 IT技能。除此之外，菲律賓人還以高度的 職業道德聞名，因為國內工作不好找，許 多人都願意到遍地機遇的外國打工來養家 糊口。
The “Overseas Filipino Workers” (OFWs) number some 8 million people, which is 9% of the total population, and they remit a critical amount of cash into the country. In 2008 they remitted US$16.4 Billion. This is a foundation stone for the economy and the people. Along comes BPO, and things are starting to look up for a
planet, China and India, are the biggest BPO operators, but the Philippines is playing ‘catch-up’ and running in third place globally. The Asian Era is blooming, as the developed countries increasingly key in to the numerous Asian advantages. 世界上人口最多的兩個國家——中國和 印度，是BPO產業的巨人。而菲律賓則在 奮起直追，劍指世界第三寶座。隨著發達 國家日益認識到亞洲的巨大優勢，「亞洲 紀元」的大幕徐徐開啟。
Manila, the capital city of the Philippines, is the shining light, and influential as being the single largest city of BPO operations on earth. 菲律賓首都馬尼拉是一座光彩奪目的城 市，被譽為全球頭號BPO業務之城。
In 2000 there were an estimated 2,400 employees in the Philippines within BPO. By 2006 this had risen
承包給公司所在國之外 的BPO稱為離岸外判；承包 給鄰國的BPO稱為近岸外判。
Given the proximity of BPO to the information technology industry, it is also categorized as an information technology enabled service or ITES. Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO)) and Legal Process Outsourcing (LPO)) are some of the sub-segments of the business process outsourcing industry.”
因與資訊科技產業關係密切，BPO又稱 資訊科技型服務（ITES）。諸如知識流程 外判（KPO）和法律流程外判（LPO）， 都是業務流程外判的分支領域。」
A typical Call Center office in Makati City, Philippines
Why the Philippines?
菲律賓緣何受青睞？
The country, has a high level of literacy, a good level of English education, an open ‘culture’ exposed to western ways, an ‘accent’ that is neutral and understandable to foreigners, and a population friendly beyond compare, who thrive on communication and IT skills. But this is not all that they offer, since they are branded with a high work ethic, and keen to support their families in a country where job opportunities are endless overseas, but in reality few and far between on home soil. 菲律賓國民文化素質高，英語教育佳，
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
new source of revenue. In fact if predictions can be believed this “Sunshine Industry” will bring in some US$11 Billion in 2010. 「菲律賓海外勞工」（外勞）約有 800萬，佔總人口的9%。這些人將大量現 金匯回國內，2008年匯款總額達164億美 元，成為支持國計民生的基石。BPO的興 起帶來新的收入來源，假如預測不虛，到 2010年這個「陽光產業」將創造約110億美 元的收入
What Competition? 競爭何在？ The two most populated countries on our
to 200,000, and the new estimates are for half a million by the beginning of 2010, and a prediction of 1 million by 2012. In other words, within three years the BPO revenues could overhaul the OFW remittances. This will bring in a new economic order. BPO revenue in the Philippines has had a ‘nasty’ habit of increasing by 40% per year, and even in 2009, after the world economic crumble, the rise is expected to top 20%. 2000年估計菲律賓約有2,400人從事 BPO行業，2006年猛增至20萬，最新估計 2010年將達50萬，2012年達100萬。換言
Economy
之，三年之內BPO收入便會超過外勞匯 款，新的經濟秩序即將到來。菲律賓的 BPO收入有個「倔脾氣」，那便是每年 都能增長40%，即便是在全球經濟衰退的 2009年，依然有望增長兩成。
The BPO business also has another positive side, since in some ways it will help unite families in the country, as opposed to the OFW system that keeps families apart.
BPO還有一個好處：有助家庭團圓，不 像外勞那樣非得背井離鄉不可。
region, in the Central Philippines, Cebu, Iloilo, Bacolod, and Dumaguete are getting in on the act. In the deep south in Mindanao, Cagayan de Oro and Davao are tuning up, and rising to the challenge. 菲律賓中部首府宿務是最典型的例子。 與此同時，還有不少中心城市都在大舉興 建高標準的基建設施，旨在增強實力迎接 BPO的到來。北部的呂宋島，碧瑤、達古 潘、克拉克（安吉利斯）、利帕、巴坦加
25
斯、黎牙實比都在躍躍欲試；中部的米沙 鄢地區，宿務、伊洛伊洛、巴科洛德、杜 馬蓋地紛紛摩拳擦掌；南部的棉蘭老島、 卡加延德奧羅和達沃蓄勢待發，加入挑戰 者的行列。
The fact is that around the world companies have become very much more cost conscious with the world economic constriction, and back office and servicing costs are one critical field that can be
Expansion 燎原之火 It is not only in mighty Manila that BPO is thriving. There are now 20 other centres throughout the country that aim to cash in on this cash cow. 不單是實力不俗的馬尼拉呈現BPO欣欣 向榮之景，現在國內還有20個中心城市都 想從這顆搖錢樹上賺一桶金。
Cebu, the capital of the Central Philippines, is a prime example, but there are a host of other centres keen to lay down the high standards of infrastructure to give them the capabilities to thrive with the coming of BPO. In the northern island of Luzon, Baguio, Dagupan, Clark (Angeles), Lipa, Batangas and Legazpi are vying for positions. In the Visayan AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
controlled neatly by operating in the Philippines, not simply because of costs, but also because of the good level of English spoken in the country mainly thanks to the legacy of the American introduction of an English based education system, instilled during their occupation of the Philippines from 1898 to 1946. 在全球經濟一蹶不振的大勢下，全世界 的公司都增強了成本意識，而後勤支援和 服務是至關重要的成本環節之一，這正是 菲律賓的長項，不僅因為菲國成本低廉， 更因國民英語素質頗高，這主要得益於 1898年至1946年美國殖民統治時期引入的 英語教育體系。
The strong American connection has given the Philippines a distinct world linked advantage. IBM intends to raise its Philippine operating component to hiring 10,000 Filipinos in the near future. HSBC has some 5000, Shell 3000. These are big corporations, but there is a plethora of other companies that rely on smaller BPO operators that are just as vital to mid cap and small cap companies. Here are a few of the other recognisable companies who have already jumped on the Philippine band-wagon; Dell; Microsoft; AIG; Chevron; Citigroup; NEC; Proctor & Gamble; Siemens AG; HP; Fujitsu; Watsons; Wyatt; Deutsche Bank; Intel; JPMorgan; Motorola; Chase. 與美國的緊密聯繫讓菲律賓有了融入世 界的顯著優勢。IBM打算擴大設於菲律賓 的業務分部，在不久的將來聘用10,000名 菲律賓人；滙豐銀行已有僱員5,000人；殼 牌則有3,000人，這些都是大名鼎鼎的企 業。而對中小型公司來說，BPO同樣不可 或缺，所以小型BPO運營商也頗受許多中 小企的青睞。還有不少知名企業都搭上菲 律賓這班快車：戴爾、微軟、AIG、雪佛 蘭、花旗集團、NEC、寶潔、西門子、惠 普、富士通、屈臣氏、懷雅特、德意志銀 行、英特爾、摩根大通、摩托羅拉、大通 銀行。
What Outsourcing Operations?
何謂外判業務？
The two most populated countries on our planet, China and India can handle the reams of back-office processing, but when it comes to inbound and outbound call contact, it is the Filipino who is on the ball.
中國和印度擅長處理大量的後勤支援流 程，而菲律賓的強項則是呼入及呼出聯絡。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
The list of stuff to do is endless, involving: health care; IT; education; consumer products; customer management; sales information; Transcription records (particularly Doctors records of patient dealings); Copy writing; digital animation (eg Anastasia and Finding Nemo); game development… and the list goes on. Then there are the ones we have all heard about, the Inbound and Outbound Call Centres. 外判業務不勝枚舉，包括：醫療保 健、IT、教育、消費產品、客戶管理、 銷售資訊、謄寫記錄（特別是病歷記 錄）、文案撰寫、數字動畫（如《真假 公主》、《海底總動員》）、遊戲開發 等等，而家喻戶曉的呼入及呼出中心亦 是其中之一。
New Operations
新興業務
The newest kids on the block are the educated talents in the Philippines who can provide Legal Services, Web Design, Software Development and Accountancy and Financing backup services. 菲律賓擁有大量受過良好教育的新一 代人才，他們擅長法律服務、網頁設 計、軟件開發以及會計金融方面的後勤 服務。
BPO Global Opportunity
BPO全球機遇
The Philippines is the 12th most populated country in the world, the 3rd largest English speaking one, and the one with a large pool of definitive talent. Perhaps this will carry them all the way to the stars, in what appears to be the largest expanding business opportunity worldwide. 菲律賓是世界第12位人口大國，亦是第 三大英語國家，擁有豐富的高素質人才。 如此優勢加上這難得的黃金機遇，菲律賓 的前景值得期待。
Rumour has it that Indian and Chinese operators are on the move, looking to key in to the Philippines. Front office operations when inbound and outbound calling are needed. Sophisticated services are in demand. Operators are keen to nestle in on the Philippines leading edge. The Philippines has their 20 key locations with appropriate infrastructure, and already 788 BPO operations are linked in on the world’s economic airways. 菲律賓擁有20個基礎設施完善的基地 城市，目前已有788種與世界經濟接軌的 BPO業務。
If its BPO services you are after, you had better try the Philippines!
假如你也需要BPO服務，歡迎前來菲律賓！ |AT|
Economy
Singapore 新加坡
27
作者/by Ian Fraser
A Powerful Competitor for World’s Leading Financial Centre
國際金融中心的有力競爭者 虎雜誌專訪時提出這個觀點。羅傑斯是 新加坡Rogers Holdings總裁兼首席執行 官，曾寫過《A Bull in China》、《Hot Commodities》和《Investment Biker》等 暢銷書籍。他說金融力量的中心正勢不可 擋地移向東方。
SINGAPORE is poised to become
one of the world’s leading financial centres, as London and New York lose status and see business ebb away as a result of the global financial crisis, according to one of the world’s leading investors. 一位投資大師告訴我，隨著倫敦和紐約在 環球金融危機中走向沒落，新加坡註定要 成為國際上首屈一指的金融中心。
Jim Rogers, chairman and chief executive of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, and author of best-selling investment books A Bull in China, Hot Commodities and Investment Biker, made the claim in an interview with Asian Tigers. He said the centre of financial power is shifting inexorably eastwards. 這番話出自吉姆•羅傑 斯之口，他是在接受亞洲
Rogers said: “The game is up for the City of London. London has been particularly error-prone in the derivatives market. I cannot see it making a quick recovery.” He said New York will decline but at a slower pace. More recently, the $50bn fraud at New Yorkbased Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities has highlight serious regulatory failures in the US.
Jim Rogers
羅傑斯表示：「倫敦已 是昨日黃花，它在衍生產 品市場上犯了大錯，我看 恐怕一時難復元氣。」他 說紐約也將走下坡路，只 不過沒有那麼快。最近曝 光的紐約伯納德•L•麥
道夫投資證券公司500億美元詐騙案，凸顯 出美國監管體系的嚴重漏洞。
Rogers said the current financial crisis is a tipping point, as western centres lose out to “less corrupted, less corroded” economies and financial centres in the east. 羅傑斯說當前這場金融危機是個轉折 點，東西方的經濟體和金融中心兩相比 較，「不那麼腐化墮落」的東方壓倒了西 方。
Rogers said Asia’s position has been further strengthened because the continent is home to the world’s six leading creditor nations: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Saudi Arabia. “The money is in Asia now. They’ve been saving,” he said. “The Americans save less than 2% of their earnings in America. In China they save over 35% and throughout Asia they save and invest massive sums of money.”
羅傑斯說亞洲的地位得到進一步增強， 因為這塊大陸上有世界六大債權國：中 國、日本、韓國、台灣、新加坡和沙特阿 拉伯。「現在的錢都在亞洲，它們被積攢 AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
Singapore Hong Kong
起來，」他說：「美國人只把收入的不到 2%儲蓄起來，中國人卻能存下35%，整個 亞洲的儲蓄和投資都十分可觀。」
Rogers, a respected commodities investor who founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in 1970, moved with his wife and two daughters from New York to Singapore in December 2007 as a result of his enthusiasm for the investment opportunities in China. 羅傑斯是舉世公認的商品投資大師， 1970年與佐治•索羅斯共創「量子基 金」。2007年，他攜妻子及兩個女兒由紐 約移居新加坡，因為他被中國的投資機遇 深深吸引。
He said Singapore and Hong Kong are the two strongest candidates to become Asia’s dominant financial centre. However he believes Singapore has the edge. He said Hong Kong is handicapped because London
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
its giant neighbour China has a blocked currency. He also believes Singapore benefits enormously from superior regulation. Because the country’s top civil servants and regulators are paid salaries of over $1m a year, Rogers said they are “incorruptible”.
他說亞洲的金融中心首推新加坡和香 港，而他覺得新加坡更有優勢。在他看 來，妨礙香港的是它龐大的近鄰中國實行 貨幣管制。他認為新加坡卓越的監管體系 使之獲益匪淺。因為國家高層公務員和監 管人員每年都能領到100多萬美元的薪水， 羅傑斯說他們「難以被收買」。
The Monetary Authority of Singapore, founded in 1971, serves as both regulator and central bank in Singapore, and overhauled its approach to banking supervision following the Barings collapse of 1995-95. Subsequent
initiatives including opening the banking system to foreign ownership, a phase of banking consolidation and merging and restructuring its securities and futures exchanges. 1971年成立的新加坡金融管理局，身兼 監管機關和中央銀行兩個角色。1995年巴 林銀行的轟然倒塌，促使金管局徹底修改 了銀行監管策略，後來的舉措包括向外資 開放銀行系統、階段性銀行業整合，以及 合併重組證券及期貨交易所。
Rogers added that even though Seoul has aspirations to become a leading Asian financial centre, it is hampered by what he describes as Byzantine regulations and the lack of free flows of capital in and out of Korea. Even though Tokyo has the capacity to be the leading Asian financial centre, Rogers said it has limited chance of achieving this, due to Japan’s “reluctance to fully open up to the outside world” and very low interest rate policies. 羅傑斯指，雖然首爾亦有打造亞洲金融 New York
Economy
29
中心的壯志，無奈卻受阻於「拜佔庭式錯 綜複雜」（羅傑斯語）的監管制度，以及 韓國對資本自由出入的限制。他又說，東 京有成為亞洲金融中心的實力，可是希望 不大，因為日本「遲遲不願完全向外面的 世界開放」，並且實行超低利率的政策。
He does not believe challengers in the Gulf, such as Dubai Financial Center, currently pose a significant threat, partly due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
他認為海灣地區的挑戰者，比如杜拜金 融中心，現在還不足為懼，一個原因是中 東的地緣政治不穩定。
Rogers’ made the predictions as a report produced for the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, confirmed that London risks losing its crown as the world’s leading financial centre. “London faces a real and serious threat from competitor cities that have developed aggressive strategies to steal business away,” said the report, prepared by a group of London-based financial bosses led by Bob Wigley, chairman of Merrill Lynch in Europe, Middle East and Africa. 羅傑斯作這些預測之際，一份報告被呈 到倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜的案頭。報告 稱倫敦有失去世界金融中心桂冠的危險。 這份報告的作者皆是倫敦金融界的顯赫人 物，為首者是鮑勃•威格利——美林公司 歐洲、中東和非洲業務總裁。報告中提 到：「倫敦面臨著競爭城市真切而嚴重的 威脅，這些城市制定了雄心勃勃 的策略要一爭高下。」
The report, commissioned by the
People’s Square, Shanghai, China
Greater London Authority confirmed that Singapore is a favourite to steal London’s crown.
這份由大倫敦市政府委託編撰的報告 指出， 新加坡是與倫敦爭奪寶座的有 力對手。
It said: “Singapore’s concerted strategy to turn its local financial centre into a regionally significant player has seen it attracting over 1,000 domestic and international financial institutions to become a regional leader and beacon for financial trading.” The report added that Singapore’s strongest sector is foreign exchange where it has a 6% share of global turnover compared to 34% in the Tokyo, Japan
Seoul, South Korea
UK and 17% in the US.
報告稱：「新加坡的一致策略是從地方 性的金融中心成為具有重要區域影響力的 競爭者，其已吸引逾千家國內外金融機 構，有望成為本地區金融貿易的領導者和 燈塔。」報告並指，新加坡實力最強的部 門是外匯交易，約佔世界總量的6%，而英 國和美國則分別為34%和17%。
Rogers said that the responses of the governments of George W Bush and Gordon Brown to the banking crisis had been deeply flawed. By making generous bail-outs to failed institutions, he said they have condemned their economies to 10 to 15 years of stagnation. He argues that more of the troubled western banks should have been allowed to go bust. “What has happened is horrible economics and horrible morality,” said Rogers. 羅傑斯說布殊政府和白高敦政府對銀行 業危機的應對之策頗受詬病。因為對泥足 深陷的金融機構慷慨解囊，兩國經濟將會 陷入長達10-15年的停滯。他認為應該讓更 多陷入危機的西方銀行破產倒閉。「留下 的只是千瘡百孔的經濟，還有可怕的道德 敗壞，」羅傑斯說道。
Rogers also reiterated his view that China will be the next superpower. “The 21st century is the century of China,” he said. “However, there will be setbacks along the way.”
羅傑斯重申他認為中國將是下一個超級 強國的觀點。「21世紀是中國世紀，」他 說： 「不過這條路途註定不會平坦。」|AT|
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
Tora! Tora! Tora!
A NEW WAR IN THE PACIFIC
Airlines battle for passengers’ dollars... and hearts
Cut-throat best describes the
current state of competition in the lucrative Pacific route linking Australia and the United States. Airline fares have plummeted to record lows, nose-diving to less than half the rate of last year’s, a furious round of discounting triggered by the entry of Delta – the world’s biggest airline – last month into what is one of the globe’s most profitable routes. Some fares have dropped to just US$530 return and carriers are offering extra incentives, such as the free limo pick-up for business passengers by V-Australia, another new player. Australian flag-carrier Qantas, which accounts for half the market and along with United has long dominated the route, is practically giving away business-class seats (a profitable market segment) on a “buy-one, take-onefree” deal and has taken the unusual step of letting children fly free, in all a promotional thrust described by a Qantas spokesperson as “the first sale of its kind for many, many years.” Tom Ballantyne, chief correspondent for Orient Aviation magazine, summed up the situation aptly when he said, “It’s fantastic for consumers – but very bad for airlines.” Until one airline stumbles, passengers will be able to enjoy cheap seats on the 14-hour journey to and from LA. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
「殊死搏鬥」是如今連接澳洲和美國這條 太平洋黃金航線白熱化競爭的真實寫照。 隨著世界上最大的達美航空公司（Delta） 上個月進軍這條全球最賺錢的航線，一股 打折風暴撲面而來，機票價格驟降至歷史 最低，還不到去年的一半。一些往返機票 現在只要530美元，航空公司新招迭出，比 如新加入戰團的V-Australia就面向商務旅客 推出了豪華轎車免費接送服務。而跟美國 聯合航空公司（United）聯手長期主宰這 條航線，並且坐擁半壁江山的澳洲旗艦航 空公司——澳洲航空（Qantas），則是更 加實惠地推出商務艙（一個利潤豐厚的市 場領域）「買一送一」特惠，並且破天荒 地允許兒童免費乘機。用澳航發言人的話 來說，這些促銷攻勢是「許多年來不曾有 過之舉」。《東方航訊》雜誌的首席記者 Tom Ballantyne妙評：「消費者歡欣雀躍， 航空公司眉頭緊鎖」。直到有航空公司撐 不下去之前，旅客們大可繼續以低廉價格 往返洛杉磯，享受這段14小時的航程。
This promotional frenzy may result in boosting the route’s capacity by nearly 30 percent, but is raising questions about how any of them will ever see any profit in this suddenly over-heated market. Industry analysts believe the biggest war to have erupted in 15 years on a route that has not been very competitive since Continental and Northwest pulled out in the early 1990s may not have been sparked solely by Delta and V-Australia
entering into the fray this year. “I think (fares are) probably about as low as they’ve ever been. It’s not just the competition and the arrival on the route of V-Australia and Delta. The current recession is hitting the airline industry very hard, particularly the high-yielding business-class traffic,” said Ballantyne. It’s like shooting two birds with one stone: intensified promotions are launched not only to induce consumer expenditure on plane travel during recessive times but also fend off offensives by the new market entrants. It’s hard to predict though how far the bloodletting will last. 大力促銷下，整個航線的載客量飆升近 三成，可問題是究竟哪家公司從這陡然升 溫的市場中賺到了錢。行業分析師認為， 自從90年代初大陸航空（Continental）和 西北航空（Northwest）撤出後，該航線的 競爭一直不溫不火，而最近這場十五年來 聲勢最大的爭奪戰，背後原因可能不只是 今年達美航空和V-Australia搶灘加入那麼簡 單。Ballantyne說：「我覺得（票價）可能 低到了前所未有的地步，這不僅是因為競 爭以及V-Australia和達美航空的加入。當前 的經濟衰退重創航空業，而高利潤的商務 艙運輸所受衝擊尤重。」狂轟濫炸的優惠 促銷有一石二鳥之效：一是在經濟不景氣 時吸引消費者搭機旅行，二是擊退新加入 者的攻勢。至於這場血戰要打多久，現在 還頗為難料。
Economy
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One May-day Call Soon?
市場即將告急？
Already, analysts are tipping at least one airline to pull out within months after the new players muscled in on the Pacific route, possibly as early as October, with V-Australia tipped as the most likely casualty – despite V’s operator Virgin Blue having announced a joint venture with Delta which is currently awaiting regulators’ approval. Ballantyne is convinced the dogfight will kill off one player: “It’s unlikely that all of the carriers will continue to serve on the route. (There are) simply too many seats on the route and you can’t fill them. Delta is a pretty big airline, they’re not going to start and then leave. But V-Australia may decide this is not worth the effort.” America’s United has underlined its commitment to
a route it has served for 24 years, while a pull-out by Qantas is unthinkable because it had dominated the market for years now and invested heavily in that route. Peter Harbison of the Centre for AsiaPacific Aviation research group quipped, “It’s not a pretty place right now.” 行業分析師預計，在新航空公司參與太 平洋航線爭奪後數月內，至少將有一家航 空公司退出，這一情況可能最早在10月就 會出現，而 V-Australia 很可能損失慘重， 儘管 V-Australia 的營運商 Virgin Blue 已宣 佈與達美航空的合資計劃正等待監管機構 審批。這場惡鬥至少將迫使一家公司出 局，Ballantyne 對此深信不疑：「所有航空 公司繼續提供航線服務的可能性不大。顯 然，目前運力過剩，沒有充足的客源。達 美航空規模較大，不會善罷甘休。但 VAustralia 需要慎重考量是否值得一搏。」美 國聯合航空公司表示，將繼續致力於這條 已經服務24年的航線，而澳洲航空的退出 似乎更不可能，因為澳洲航空主導市場已 長達數年，且為該航線投入鉅資。亞太航
Airport in Sydney
空中心（Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation）研 究小組的 Peter Harbison 妙評道：「目前的 市場危機四伏。」
But how lucrative, really is the nonstop US mainland-Australia route to merit this Pacific War? No one knows for sure. What is known though is that the US is one of Australia’s top ten markets, with an average annual traffic of 1.7 million passengers. Analysts came closest to finding out the value of this route when former Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon revealed it generated “less than 15%” of total Qantas profit. While some observers suspected it is higher, they also thought Dixon had several reasons to downplay this value. Alan Joyce, Dixon’s successor, points out today the route is unprofitable, albeit cash-positive, but declines to disclose its contribution to total revenue. 這條連接美國大陸與澳洲的不經停航線
到底能帶來多麼豐厚的回報，以至於引發 這場太平洋航線大戰？誰都無法確定。就 目前掌握的資訊來看，美國是澳洲前十大 市場之一，平均年度旅客中轉量達170萬 人。澳洲航空前行政總裁 Geoff Dixon 曾透 露，該航線對澳洲航空總利潤的貢獻「不 到15％」，此後，行業分析師開始深入研 究這條航線的價值。而有些觀察人士懷疑 實際數值應該更高，他們認為，Dixon 基 於多項理由故意輕視該航線價值。Dixon 的繼任者 Alan Joyce 指出，雖然這條航線仍 有積極的現金流收入，如今已不具有較高 盈利能力，但他拒絕披露航線對總收入的 貢獻比例。
A Two-Ruler World
雙巨頭市場
For the past 15 years Qantas and United have shared the Pacific route, with Qantas emerging as the bigger player garnering about 75 percent of the capacity. A stable market for years, there
For the past 15 years Qantas and United have shared the Pacific route
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Economy
60% 17% 15% 8% had been minor competition from one-stop carriers Air New Zealand, Hawaiian and Fiji’s Air Pacific, plus the round-about routing offered by several Asian carriers. Among these, only Air New Zealand posed any serious challenge in terms of seats and schedules. Now, as carriers adjust capacity, the numbers are expected to change; and, overall, it appears by year’s end that the non-stop market share will be Qantas 60%, United 17%, V-Australia 15%, and Delta 8%. In this market scenario, Qantas will appear to be the big loser and V-Australia the big winner. However, seats have value only when they are full and that value depends on what passengers will pay to fill them.
過去15年內，澳洲航空和美國聯合航空 一直分享太平洋航線，隨著澳洲航空的 不斷崛起，佔據約75％的市場份額。市場 多年來保持穩定，新西蘭航空（Air New Zealand）、夏威夷航空（Hawaiian）和斐 濟的太平洋航空（Air Pacific）提供有經 停的航線服務，另有數家亞洲航空公司提 供迂回航線服務，市場競爭微弱。在實力 較弱的競爭對手中，僅有新西蘭航空在上 座率和航班計劃方面帶來真正的挑戰。目 前，隨著航空公司調整運力，市場份額將 出現變化，到今年年底，不經停航線的市 場份額應為澳洲航空60％、美國聯合航空 17％、V-Australia 15％和達美航空8％。 照此看來，澳洲航空將成為最大輸家， V-Australia 成為最大贏家。不過，只有在 乘客入座後，航線座位才有價值，該價值 取決於乘客願意支付的價錢。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
Market share by end of ‘09
In this market scenario, Qantas will appear to be the big loser and V-Australia the big winner.
But whatever the route’s value is, Australia’s Virgin Blue saw the US market lucrative enough to launch V-Australia earlier this year. It now operates Boeing 777-300ERs to Los Angeles daily from Sydney and thrice weekly from Brisbane, plus a thriceweekly flight from Melbourne starting in August. Flamboyant Virgin Blue mover, Sir Richard Branson of England, has dreamt of creating a round-the-world Virgin network, and this route filled the gap left for him to fulfill his dream. Then, the Open Skies bilateral pact entered into by Australia and the US last year paved the way for V-Australia to operate the number of frequencies it needs to make the route viable. 但不論航線價值如何，澳洲的 Virgin Blue 認為，美國市場的盈利前景完全能 滿足 V-Australia 發展業務的需要。VAustralia 採用波音 777-300 機型執行每天 由悉尼至洛杉磯的任務，每週還有三架次 航班從布里斯班起飛，今年8月，將有每 週三架次航班從墨爾本起飛。Virgin Blue 的支持者 Sir Richard Branson 一直夢想建 立環繞全球的維珍航線，該航線恰好令他 成功圓夢。隨後，澳洲與美國於去年簽訂 開放領空雙邊協議，為 V-Australia 的發展 奠定堅實基礎，使 V-Australia 能夠使用航 線必要的無線電頻率。
And Delta? It also benefitted from the Open Skies deal in the same way. It has launched daily Los AngelesSydney nonstops this month. But much like Virgin, its additional motive for entering this market was the gaping
hole in the Australasian region in its new Pacific network achieved after attaining instant dominance in the Pacific and into Southeast Asia via the extensive fifth freedoms enjoyed beyond Japan by Northwest Airlines – which it acquired last year. Delta’s Sydney route boosts its presence in Los Angeles and allows it to boast that it is the only US airline to fly to six continents. Delta now sees Australia as part of a bigger picture.
達美的情況如何？達美同樣從開放領空 協議中獲益。本月，達美推出每日由洛杉 磯至悉尼的不經停航班。與維珍類似的 是，達美亦透過進入澳洲市場彌補太平洋 地區的市場缺失，此前，達美曾在太平 洋地區快速建立主導地位，還於去年收 購西北航空（Northwest Airlines）成功進 入東南亞市場。達美的悉尼航線有助於提 升達美在洛杉磯的市場份額，使其成為 唯一一間航線覆蓋六大洲的美國航空公 司。達美現將澳洲視為未來更廣闊市場的 組成部分。
The four protagonists in this new Pacific airline war would agree that they cannot support the current huge capacity boost. It then becomes an issue of how each of the airlines can make the cuts needed so that the route becomes sustainable for anyone employing its own agenda. A top airline executive summed it up: “Capacity on this route has to rationalize. We’ve seen this in the past with the arrival of Continental and Northwest. It’s always rationalized, and it eventually will again, because all of these are commercial players. It’s a vicious circle. Once you start scaling back, you start losing the competitive advantage you have. It becomes a question of who will blink first.” 這場新太平洋航線大戰的四個參與者一 定認同，他們無法支撐運力的巨大提升。 現在的問題在於，各家航空公司如何進行 必要的削減，以便使航線更適合自身的需 要。一位航空公司高管總結道：「此航線 的運力必須合理化。此前，在大陸航空（ Continental）和西北航空（Northwest）進 入市場時，我們就曾遇到類似的情況。由 於各個競爭對手都是商業化企業，運力最 終將趨於合理化。這是惡性循環。只要開 始退縮，就會失去競爭優勢。問題在於誰 最先放鬆神經。」|AT|
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Economy
作者/by Steve Lunt
The fleets of pirates who attack
the shores of Asia’s software markets are steadily multiplying. More than 15 billion US dollars have been lost to the industry, as the average computer software piracy rate in the Asia-Pacific region has increased from 59 per cent to 61 per cent. That’s according to recent research by the Business Software Alliance (BSA), whose members include techno-giants such as Apple, Intel and Microsoft. Pirated software for sale
襲擊亞洲軟件市場的盜版大軍與日俱增。 據商業軟件聯盟（BSA）研究顯示，亞太 J. Hardee, BSA’s Asia-Pacific Director. 地區的電腦軟件平均盜版率已由59%上升 盜版率上升的原因是那些盜版猖獗的國 到61%，給業界造成150多億美元的損失。 家的個人電腦（PC）市場發展迅猛 BSA的成員包括蘋果，英特爾，微軟等科 「縱使每個高盜版國家的盜版率都有下降， 技巨擘。 可是因為他們的PC市場份額不斷增長， This increase is attributed to the swift growth of PC markets in economies with 所以整個地區的平均盜版率依然居高不 下，」BSA亞太區總裁傑夫·哈迪（Jeffrey higher piracy rates. “Even if piracy were J. Hardee）說道。 to go down in every high-piracy country,
their growing market share for PCs could drive the regional average up,” says Jeffrey
Emerging markets provide especially fertile ground for PC software piracy,
with rapidly growing “white box” users: consumers and small businesses that buy locally assembled computers from nonbrand-name vendors, who bundle pirated software with their PCs. 新興市場是PC軟件盜版的沃土，那裏的 「白牌」 （white box）用戶正在迅速增加， 他們都是一些向無牌廠商購買自行拼裝的 電腦的個人消費者和小型企業，廠商經常 把盜版軟件跟自家的PC捆綁銷售。
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
Computer stores in China
The global spread of internet access also drives up piracy, with industry analysts expecting 460 million new users to come online from emerging markets over the next five years. Growth in the numbers of consumers and small businesses will also bring more financially challenged users, who may have less resistance to the pirates’ charms. 互聯網的全球普及同樣助長了盜版。業 界分析師預計，未來五年新興市場將新增 4.6億互聯網用戶。隨著消費者和小型企業 越來越多，不少人手頭都不寬裕，故而難 抵盜版的誘惑。
“The availability of pirated software on the internet, which ironically is facilitated by increasing broadband penetration in the region, is also a major concern,” says Hardee. “On top of this, it is surprising how often we find that managers fail to institute policies and procedures in their organizations to manage their software assets to prevent the use of unlicensed software in the workplace and to gain efficiencies by carefully integrating their software assets to maximize productivity.” 「諷刺的是，本地區的寬頻愈是普及， 從網上獲得盜版軟件愈是容易，這亦是個 不小的隱患，」 哈迪表示：「更嚴峻的是， 我們總能發現管理者們未有在組織內部制 定政策和程序來管理軟件資產，以防有人 在工作場所使用未獲許可的軟件，而且亦 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
無相關的政策和程序，以便透過精心整合 軟件資產提升效率，實現生產力最大化。」
At government levels there has been some progress in controlling piracy more effectively. China’s piracy rate has dropped ten points in the last five years as a result of more vigorous enforcement, education, and vendor legalization programmes. Manufacturers in China
“white box” users: consumers...that buy locally assembled computers from nonbrand-name vendors, who bundle pirated software with their PCs. are now only allowed to ship PCs with legitimate operating systems.
政府部門在有效控制盜版方面取得一定 進步。過去五年，中國的盜版率已下降十 個百份點，這是加強執法，公眾教育和廠 商合規計劃的結果。現在國內製造商僅被 允許出售裝有正版操作系統的PC。
The largest reduction in the Asia-
Pacific was found in Hong Kong, where the PC software piracy rate has fallen by three per cent. The piracy rates in two of the region’s more mature markets have declined by two points: in Australia it’s fallen to 26 per cent, and in Japan it’s now at 21 per cent. Slightly lower piracy rates have also been noted in Singapore (36 per cent), Taiwan (39 per cent), and Thailand (76 per cent).
亞太地區打擊盜版最有成效的當屬香 港，其PC軟件盜版率下降3%。區內兩個成 熟市場澳洲和日本，則降低兩個百份點： 澳洲為26%，日本為21%。另外，新加坡 （36%），台灣（39%）和泰國（76%）的 盜版率亦略有降低。
Even minimal reductions in piracy levels are hailed by the industry as significant strides forward. Every point of piracy is estimated to cost the industry 1.3 billion US dollars - so over the next four years, just lowering global piracy by one point a year would add 20 billion US dollars in industry revenues, according to analysts’ projections. Over the next four years, they believe consumers and businesses will spend nearly 450 billion US dollars on PC software. 其實盜版率哪怕只是微降一點，都會被 業界當成是不小的進步而雀躍不已。據估 計，盜版率每增加一個百份點，整個行業 就會損失13億美元。所以分析師們預測，
Economy
35
The availability of pirated software on the internet, which ironically is facilitated by increasing broadband penetration in the region, is also a major concern 未來四年只要全球盜版率每年降低1%，整 個行業便能增加200億美元的收入。在今後 四年中，預料消費者和企業將在PC軟件上 花費近4,500億美元。
Piracy rates in the Philippines have remained the same, at 69 per cent since 2007. Bienvenido Marquez III, BSA consultant for the Philippines, says that’s why the current educational and enforcement efforts by the government and private sector are even more crucial.
菲律賓的盜版率還是跟2007年一樣保 持在69%，BSA的菲律賓顧問Bienvenido Marquez III認為政府和私營部門亟需加強教 育和執法力度。
“Filipinos should realize that whenever they buy a pirated copy of a software program, or when a business decides to use more copies of a software than they had bought licences for, they are not only stealing the intellectual property of the software developers. They are also causing
illegal download of software via the internet
many of our countrymen to lose job opportunities as a result of lost revenues in the industry,” says Marquez.
Marquez表示： 「菲律賓人應該意識到， 當他們購買盜版軟件程式或者是企業決定 使用超出許可數目的複製軟件時，他們不 僅竊取了軟件開發商的知識產權，而且還 給整個行業造成收入流失，致使同胞丟掉 工作。」
The negative impacts of piracy go well beyond the software industry. For
An anti-piracy campaign by Microsoft in Sudirman Business Center, Jakarta, Indonesia
every US dollar of software sold, that generates a further three to four US dollars in revenue for local IT service and distribution firms. Lowering PC software piracy rates by ten points over four years would create 600,000 additional new jobs worldwide - according to USbased IT analysts, IDC. The BSA says this projection has been supported by developments in China and Russia.
深受盜版之苦的不只軟件業。據估計， 每銷售1美元的軟件，便可為當地的IT服務 商和分銷商帶來3-4美元的收入。美國IT分 析機構IDC表示，若能在四年內將PC軟件 盜版率降低十個百份點，便可為全世界創 造60萬個工作崗位。BSA說中國和俄羅斯的 經歷已經印證了這個預測。
It’s fairly easy for counterfeit software to find its way onto machines. It may be sold over internet auction sites to buyers who don’t realize it’s illegitimate. Organised crime syndicates can manufacture counterfeit packaged software in concealed factories. Corporate IT departments may install more copies of software than their licences allow – inadvertently, or intentionally. Software can also be copied and installed on several machines without licences, moved from older PCs, borrowed from friends or just acquired from ‘informal’ vendors. AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
盜版軟件能輕而易舉流入用戶手中—— 它能透過拍賣網站賣給那些不明就裏的買 家；有組織犯罪團夥在偽裝工廠中製造盜 版的成套軟件；公司IT部門可能有意或無 意地安裝超出許可數目的複製軟件；另 外，人們亦會未經許可就把軟件複製和安 裝在多台電腦上，從舊電腦中移出，跟朋 友借用，或者乾脆向非正規的商家購買。
Old computers given extended lives
，
The global recession appears to be having a mixed impact on software piracy. Consumers may keep computers longer, which tends to increase piracy because older computers are more likely to have unlicensed software loaded on them. But financial pressures are stimulating sales of cheaper “net-books” with legitimate preloaded software, and spurring businesses to implement software asset management programs that increase efficiencies and lower IT costs. 全球經濟衰退對軟件盜版的影響有利有 弊。一方面是消費者延長電腦的使用期 限，這將增加盜版，因為舊電腦通常都裝 有未獲許可的軟件；另一方面是在財務壓 力下，那些預先安裝正版軟件的廉價「網 絡圖書」趁勢旺銷，而且企業也迫於壓力 推行軟件資產管理計劃，旨在提升效率和 降低IT成本。
“Reduced buying power is only one of many factors affecting software piracy,” says Victor Lim, Vice President for AsiaPacific at IDC. “The economic crisis will have an impact – part of it negative, part of it positive – but it may not become fully apparent until the 2009 figures come in.” IDC亞太區副總裁Victor Lim稱： 「購買力 下降只是影響軟件盜版的諸多因素之一。 經濟危機帶來的影響有消極也有積極，待 到2009年的數據出爐後便可看個究竟。」
Software piracy also increases the risk of cyber crime and security problems. For example, the recent global spread of the Conficker virus was partly due to the lack of automatic security updates for unlicensed software. A recent study by IDC found that 61 percent of peer-topeer file-sharing sites - offering pirated software - tried to infect test computers with “Trojans,” spy-ware, or key-loggers. 軟件盜版增加了網絡犯罪的風險， 危害網絡安全，譬如近期肆虐全球的 Conficker病毒，部份原因就 是未獲許可的軟件無法自 動更新。最近IDC的研究顯 示，在那些提供盜版軟件的 對等文件共享網站中，有 61%都嘗試過在文件中嵌入 「木馬」，「間諜」或鍵盤 記錄器等病毒來感染用戶的 電腦。
Custom designed cover of a pirated version of Windows XP
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
Overall, analysts are expecting software piracy rates will continue to fall in each country, but increase globally as the market shifts to emerging regions. The worldwide software piracy rate continues to
rise - from 38 per cent to 41 per cent - largely because PC shipments grew fastest in high-piracy countries such as China and India. The BSA says only 44 per cent of PC software in use all over the world is legitimate; and the monetary value of worldwide losses caused by this piracy to the industry has risen by 5 per cent, to more than 50 billion US dollars.
整體而言，分析師預測各國的軟件盜版 率會持續下降，但因盜版市場轉向新興地 區，所以全球的總比率卻會上升。目前 全球的軟件盜版率已由38%增至41%，主 要因為中國，印度這些盜版氾濫之國的 PC出貨量飛速增加。BSA表示全世界使用 的PC軟件中僅有44%屬於正版，而盜版給 整個行業造成的經濟損失已增加5%，突破 500億美元。
So while the software industry may celebrate each hard-won point against the pirates, it’s likely there will be ever more ominous flags fluttering onto the horizon - flying that dreaded skull-andcrossbones.
所以，當軟件業還在慶祝打擊盜版那來 之不易的點滴成績時，也許天際已揚起更多 不祥的骷髏旗。（譯者註：「盜版」一詞英 文為「pirate」，亦有「海盜」之意）|AT|
Economy
Solar Energy
37
變廢為寶 從多晶矽到太陽能
from Scrap 作者/by Michael Wilson
Budgeting for the rollercoaster
effect of a supply bottleneck has never been easy. But spare a thought for the companies that produce silicon wafers. These essential items are used for making two of the world’s most vital technical needs - computer chips, and electro-voltaic solar panels for generating electricity. And business has been booming. A year ago, the world was so desperately short of wafers that the price of raw silicon ingots had soared to more than US$300 per kilo - compared with only US$40 in 2004 and a mere US$6 in 2001. People were almost literally fighting for them. And everything was going perfectly for the worldwide handful
of companies that specialised in these high-tech gems. 供給瓶頸引發的過山車效應從來都難琢 磨，這次我們來看看矽晶圓產業。矽晶圓 應用於世界上最重要的兩項技術，一是電 腦芯片，二是太陽能光伏電池板。整個產 業曾經紅紅火火。一年前，全世界的晶圓 極度短缺，作為原料的矽晶錠價格一路飆 升到每千克300美元以上，而2004年的價格 僅為40美元，2001年更是只有6美元。毫不 誇張地說，幾乎與搶購無異。那時世界上 幾家專門從事這種高科技產業的公司，真 可謂春風得意。
Since then, it has all gone wrong. Prices for silicon ingots have collapsed by as much as 40% since the start of 2009, and they might even drop through US$100 per kilo by Christmas. This seems puzzling. Clearly, either the world isn’t desperate for silicon chips and wafers any more, or else the bottleneck is being eased by a massive influx of new production capacity. 可是從那以後，一切都面目全非 。2009年 迄今，矽晶錠價格已下跌40%，到聖誕節 之前更有可能跌破每千克100美元。看似琢
磨不透，其實無外乎兩個原因：要麼是世 界對矽芯片和晶圓的迫切需求不再，要麼 是大量新增產能緩解了供給瓶頸。
It is, of course, the latter. China has not been a particularly big player in the silicon business until relatively recently - because, for some reason, its production costs have remained stubbornly higher than those of its competitors - but the country is now moving to establish itself as a world leader in wafer-quality silicon production. And the expectation has driven down silicon futures prices, causing the price plunge. 毫無疑問是後者。中國過去並非矽產業 大國，因為種種原因，其生產成本始終高 於競爭對手。時移世易，今天的中國正把 自己塑造為矽晶圓產業的世界領導者。正 是這個預期促使矽期貨價格一路走低，導 致產品價格大幅回落。
A single Chinese city, Leshan in Sichuan province, is currently building a 33-hectare production facility that will supply up to 40,000 tonnes a year by 2014. And China’s national government has announced ambitious plans to expand the country’s capacity to 100,000 AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
tonnes in the medium term. That would be rather more than the entire world’s projected demand for wafer silicon, which is estimated to reach 85,000 tonnes next year. (50,000 tonnes for solar panels and another 35,000 tonnes for computer chips.)
位於中國四川省的樂山市正在建設一 座佔地33公頃的生產設施，到2014年供給 量可達40,000噸/年。中國政府出台宏偉 計劃，要在中期內將全國的產能擴大到 100,000噸。這比整個世界的矽晶圓需求量 （預計明年達85,000噸，其中太陽能電池板 需50,000噸，電腦芯片需35,000噸）還要高 許多。
China, then, is taking a huge gamble on the future development of global silicon demand. If it gets it wrong, the world will be so badly glutted with excess production that nobody will make any money. But if its guess is correct, the industry should be able to benefit from an explosion of demand that will run all the way from ‘smart’ technology in cars, refrigerators and practically everything else, through to the growing international pressure for clean energy. The question is, how can anybody make money reliably from such a volatile commodity? 可以說，中國是在拿全球矽需求的前景 做一場豪賭。假若失算的話，世界將陷入 嚴重的產能過剩，誰都顆粒無收。一旦賭
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
對了，那麼從汽車，冰箱到幾乎一切東西 上的「智能」技術，再到國際上日益增加 的清潔能源需求，整個產業都將從爆炸式 的需求增長中獲益。問題是：誰能在如此 難料的商品上穩贏不輸呢？
Renesola’s Alternative A company called Renesola, based near Shanghai, aims to take a substantial slice of this new business. Although still quite small (about US$400 million), it has adopted a two-pronged specialist strategy.
China, then, is taking a huge gamble on the future development of global silicon demand. On the one hand, it operates around 330 furnaces producing conventional monocrystalline silicon ingots, which are then thin-sliced into photovoltaic wafers for use mainly in solar panels. But its more interesting specialism, from an investor’s point of view, is the production of so-called multicrystalline silicon (also called polycrystalline), which delivers most of the energy efficiency of
monocrystalline - but at a significantly lower cost.
昱輝陽光的取捨之道 離上海不遠有一家「昱輝陽光能源公 司」（Renesola），他們打算在這新興產業佔 據一席之地。公司規模還不算大（約4億美 元），但卻採取雙管齊下的精明策略：一 是投入330座熔爐生產傳統的單晶矽錠，然 後切成光伏晶圓，主要供太陽能電池板使 用；二是生產多晶矽——從投資者的角度 看，後者更具吸引力，因為多晶矽的能效 與單晶矽相差無幾，但成本卻低廉得多。
The great thing about multicrystalline silicon is that it is made from low-quality silicon and recycled silicon scrap. Solar panels made from multicrystalline are cheaper to buy than monocrystalline but need to be slightly larger. So this makes them particularly suitable for wafer applications in parts of the developing world where affordability is more important than compact size. In one deft move, Renesola has earned itself accolades for encouraging eco-friendliness, waste management, energy sustainability, and international development too. 多晶矽的最大好處是以低質矽和回收的 廢矽為原料製作而成。用多晶矽製造太陽 能電池板比單晶矽便宜，只是稍大一些。 所以多晶矽非常適合那些看重經濟性多過
Economy
39
Renesola’s assets more than doubled to US$1.05 billion during the year, mainly due to plant and production expansion - but its debts doubled too, to US$621 million. calendar 2008, from US$249 million to US$670 million, and its operating profits improved by 132% to US$124 million. But the company pitched into a small technical loss because of a fourth-quarter inventory write-down.
A photovoltaic cell in hand, Charles Bai, leader of ReneSola, with Michele Bolz, one of the engineers of IBM at the origin of the technique of recycling of silicon wafers.
緊湊性的發展中國家，以滿足它們的晶圓 應用之需。只因這巧妙一步，昱輝陽光就 贏得了生態友好，廢物管理，能源永續和 國際發展等諸多方面的讚譽。
The company’s 370-odd furnaces are currently capable of producing around 320 megawatts’ worth of monocrystalline ingots a year, plus a similar volume of multicrystalline. It recently completed a new 3,000-tonne silicon ingot facility in Sichuan, and it aims to broadly double its production levels in the next two years. 目前370多座熔爐每年可產約320兆瓦的 單晶矽錠，以及相若數量的多晶矽。近期 又在四川建成一座新的3,000噸矽晶錠工 廠，並計劃未來兩年把產量翻一番。
But Renesola’s other and perhaps more important skill is in slicing the silicon wafers into particularly thin wafers - less than 180 microns thick. There are few companies in China that can rival this. And thin slicing is generally recognised as the best way forward for the wafer industry. Current panels are only about 15% energy-efficient, and it seems that thinner wafers will improve output - while, coincidentally, making the best use of an increasingly expensive silicon resource. It will be up to Renesola to
leverage its technical advantage if it wants to succeed. 昱輝陽光的另一本領是把矽晶圓切割成 不到180微米的超薄晶圓，這是昱輝陽光 的獨門絕技，目前國內無人能及。超薄 切片被公認為是晶圓行業最有前途的發展 之路，因為現在電池板的能效只能達到 15%左右，而更薄的晶圓可提供更大的輸 出功率，恰好也能善用越來越貴的矽資 源。發揮這個技術優勢是昱輝陽光成功的 關鍵。
Rather than seeking a stock market listing on an Asian exchange, Renesola lists in New York and also on the Alternative Investment Market in London, where young technology companies have traditionally been welcomed. Its revenues grew by 169% in
昱輝陽光沒有在亞洲交易所上市，而是 選擇了紐約還有倫敦的另類投資市場，這 兩地素來都向年輕的科技公司敞開大門。 2008年公司收入增長169%，從2.49億美元 增至6.7億美元；經營利潤提升132%，達 1.24億美元。第四季度因為存貨減記，錄得 輕微的技術性虧損。
Renesola’s assets more than doubled to US$1.05 billion during the year, mainly due to plant and production expansion - but its debts doubled too, to US$621 million. It will now need to figure out how to fund its future expansion while coping not just with a nervous lending environment, but also with a volatile commodity market. Success is not guaranteed yet. But it seems within reach.
當年公司資產規模增加兩倍多，達到 10.5億美元，主要得益於廠房和生產擴張。 與此同時，負債也增加兩倍達到6.21億美 元。現在，昱輝陽光需要仔細籌劃如何為 今後的擴張籌集資金，不僅要適應緊張的 信貸環境，還要應對動盪的商品市場。成 功尚無定論，但看來並不遙遠。|AT|
Renesola’s production of multicrystalline wafers
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
The
Magic of
Saving 儲蓄的魔力
➊ Taking the Plunge 信不信由你 Are we really all aware of that miracle of ‘compound interest’ and the Golden Rule of 72? Einstein described the miracle of compounding as “the greatest mathematical discovery of all time” and as “the eighth wonder of the world”. He definitely knew a thing or two about how the universe ticks. 你可知道「複利」和「72黃金法則」的 神奇？愛因斯坦說複利是「史上最偉大的 數學發現」和「世界第八大奇跡」，他無 疑參透了天機。
John Maynard Keynes, the economist genius, described “the awesome power of compound interest”. 而天才的經濟學家凱恩斯亦說過「複利 有驚人的力量」。
What amazed these men was the way in which, given enough time, even apparently trivial amounts of money can turn into spectacular fortunes. The reason is simple, but profound.
真正讓這些人著迷的是，只要有足夠時 間，哪怕是微不足道的一點小錢，也能產生 壯觀的財富。道理很簡單，卻也很玄妙。
Take 1000 dollars, and invest it wisely, grow it by 10% in a year, and at the end of that year you will have 1,100 dollars.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
拿1,000塊錢來投資，假設一年中的回報 率是10%，到了年底你就有1,100元。
Do the same for a second year and you will have, not 1,200 but 1,210 dollars, because your 10% return on the starting 1,100 is worth 110. Do this every year for 20 years and the return in the last year will be worth 600 dollars, and the initial 1,000 dollars will have turned into 6,700 dollars. 第二年如法炮製，年底將變成1,210元， 而不是1,200元，因為年初的1,100元有 10%的回報，即110元。若是二十年裏，年 年如此，最後一年的回報將有600元，當初 的1,000元將變成6,700元。
Now imagine that during the year you put aside another 1,000 dollars (that is only 20 dollars a week) and set it to work
Einstein described the miracle of compounding as “the greatest mathematical discovery of all time” and as “the eighth wonder of the world”
alongside the first 1,000 dollars.
假設每年你能再攢1,000元（每週只要 20元），並跟當初的1,000元合在一起。
The 19 years during which it grows at 10% a year will turn it into 6,100 dollars. 在十九年裏，每年增值10%，最後變成 6,100元。
The third year’s 1,000 dollars will grow to 5,600 dollars in 18 years and so on, and so on. 第三年的1,000元，到第十八年將變成 5,600元，依此類推。
In 20 year’s time, you will have amassed 64,000 dollars by simply saving 20 dollars a week. 那麼在二十年裏，只要每週攢下20元， 最後便可積累64,000元。
The beauty of compound interest is that the longer you can let it work its magic the greater the rewards. Although it will take you 32 years to build this savings plan up to 500,000 dollars, by the time another 30 years has passed your fund will have more than doubled to a grand sum of 1,100,000 dollars… quite a tidy sum – and all that for just 20 dollars a week!
複利的美妙就在於，時間愈長，回報愈 高。雖然這個儲蓄計劃要等三十二年才能 達到50萬元，可是再過三十年，你手中的 錢將翻倍達到110萬元，這絕對不是個小數
Economy
目，而你只需每週攢下20元！
The motto is clearly ‘start saving now’, and do not delay… because compounding will work more in your favour the more time you have set aside for its magic. 俗話說得好：儲蓄要趁早，拖遝要不 得……因為你留出的時間愈多，複利的魔 力愈大。
OK, so now we know we should start saving… but what is this Golden Rule of 72?
OK，現在我們知道應該開始儲蓄……那 麼， 「72黃金法則」又是什麼？
Time can perform miracles with your modest savings, but then comes the revelation that if you can squeeze out a slightly better return than the 10%, then the returns are immensely compounded. That is what the Golden Rule of 72 shows you. It is the formula for showing you how many years it will take you to double your money at a rate of compound interest. 有了適度儲蓄，時間便可上演奇跡，可 慢慢地你將發現，若能把10%的回報率稍 微提高一點，那麼回報將更加壯觀。這 便是「72黃金法則」的妙處，這公式將告 訴你，在複利下你的錢需要多少年才能 翻倍。
To work this out simply divide 72 by the interest rate you think you can achieve. At 7% it will take 10 years to
double your money, while at 12% a year it will take just 6 years. 用72除以預期的利率，便可得到結果。 假設利率為7%，則需十年使資金翻倍；若 為12%，則僅需六年。
In those last 30 years after you have given up saving and your money is working hard while you sleep, you will double your money around four times over at 10% a year (which is how you will get from $64,000 to $1,100,000). BUT, at 15% a year you would do it twice more again (which would turn $1,100,000 into $4,400,000). 在你停止儲蓄後的三十年內，即便是你 睡覺的時候，你的錢也在拼命「賺錢」， 按每年回報率10%計算，這些錢大約會有 四次翻倍（從64,000元到1,100,000元）； 若是每年15%，更可再翻倍兩次（從 1,100,000元到4,400,000元）。
Great! But there is a flaw in this argument. Or rather there is a catch… after all where on earth can you get a return of 15%, or even 10% a year, on any investment? 真是妙極了！可惜這算法有個漏洞，或 者說一個陷阱——世上哪有什麼投資每年 能賺15%，哪怕10%都很不容易！
➋ The Menu of Life’s Financial Choices 人生的菜單：錢怎麼花？
41
$ The Aperitif 開胃酒............................ When aged 20s to 30 – Wine and Dine now and live life to the full! – 20-30歲 – 吃喝玩樂，盡享生活
$$ The Entrée 頭道菜........................... – Aged 31 to 40 – A little less of the Booze and an occasional Cruise… save for a future – 31-40歲 – 少些享樂，收斂放縱…為將 來儲蓄
$$$ Main Course 主菜....................... – “Work Free” (at age 45) – Wining and dining with clients that fuel a Passion… lots of cash in the bank, and fund purchases too! –「眼中無工作」（45歲時）– 與談得來
的客戶開懷暢飲…銀行存款多多，別作守 財奴！
$$$$$ Dessert 餐後甜點...................
– Aged 55 to 101 - Sweet and Modest Eating moderately and tasting an occasional good red wine. Time to wine and dine again and to live life to the full… thanks to a lifetime of financial planning for a carefully planned rosy dotage – (55-101歲) – 甘甜安逸 – 細細品味，不 時來杯上等紅酒 。
$$$$$ After Dinner Port 消食酒..... – Aged 101 to 130 – For when that plant that gives eternal life is discovered in the remaining 3 square miles of the Amazon Forest. –(101-130歲)– 假如人類能在最後三平 方英里的亞馬遜叢林找到長生不老的仙草 的話……
(NOTE: Interesting that an ‘Entrée’ in Europe is an entry dish, as logic would suggest, but in the USA it is the ‘Main Course’ – it is amazing how incredible and different perspectives are on the same theme).
（註：有意思的是「Entrée」一詞在歐洲 是「頭道菜」，取其字面涵義；而在美國則 是「主菜」——同一事上理解如此迥異， 著實耐人尋味）。
➌ WANTED:
Financial Independence 目標——經濟獨立 The older world call it ‘retirement’, which has several depressing connotations AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
associated with it… like ‘the end of the line’, the end of an income stream, and the time to do the gardening.
老套話就是「退休」，這詞不免有些沮喪 的意味……年齡大了，收入沒了，卸甲歸 田的時候到了。
GET SMART plan for a rainy day, plan for a lazy day, and that day when you don’t actually have to get off the beach, because commitments are unobtrusive and secondary in that carefully planned ‘job free’ zone of life in retirement. At the End of the Line it all depends on the individual’s will and willingness - It used to be that with the ‘good old’ companies a PENSION PLAN was part and parcel of the employment package… BUT these days, more often than not, individuals have to make their own plans for money in retirement. 聰明人應該早做規劃，未雨綢繆，給懶 日子做打算，真正到了那一天你才不至窮 困潦倒。給退休後的賦閑生活做好鋪墊， 到時就不必疲於奔命。這一切都取決於 個人的意志和意願 - 也許一家「好公司」 能夠提供退休金計劃作為薪酬待遇的一部 份，可是如今這個年代，人們往往更需要 有自己的規劃，準備好退休後的資金
“I’m too young to think about retiring” 「我還年輕，退休還很遙遠」 For many people, the decision to save for a pension is the most important investment decision they will ever make. Retirement may currently seem remote to you and other “day to day” financial demands more pressing. Yet undertaking a simple and flexible retirement prog ramme, whatever your present age or future plans, is a wise and rewarding decision. 對許多人來說，儲蓄退休金將是他們一 生中最重要的投資決策。也許現在你離退 休還很遙遠，況且生活中到處都是用錢的 地方，可是你要懂得一個簡單而靈活的退 休規劃，不論你現在有多大，也不論將來 打算如何，都不失為一個明智而必有厚報 的決定
“Or am I?” 「我還年輕嗎？」 Increased longevity, earlier retirement and higher expectations in retirement are ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
all compounding to heighten the need to plan, more effectively, the financing of those “golden years”. Imagine for a moment how you would feel if, after a lifetime of work, you had insufficient funds to enjoy your hard earned retirement.
壽命愈來愈長，退休愈來愈早，退休後 的期望愈來愈高，所有這一切都凸顯規劃 的必要性，說得更明白些，就是「黃金歲 月」裏如何積累財富。當你辛苦一輩子， 到頭來窮困潦倒，衣食無著，你將是何 感受？
One of the leading providers of international retirement plans, estimates that an individual’ with a salary of $35,000 a year, with full pension entitlement would receive a pension of 23% of pre-retirement income: a 77% fall in income.
據一家知名的國際退休計劃供應商估 計，年收入為35,000元並享有全額退休金的 人，其所領取的退休金只有退休前收入的 23%：多達77%的收入化為泡影。
A report published by the Office of Fair Trading in 1998 in UK stated that in order to receive a pension targeted at two thirds of final salary at age 65, individuals would need to save a high proportion of their income each year until retirement. The amount required depends on whether or not they already have savings: 1998年英國公平貿易署發表一份報告指 出，人在退休之前需要每年積攢頗高比 例的收入，才能在65歲時領到相當於退休 前工資三份之二的退休金。具體金額是多 少，取決於他們從前有無積蓄。
➍ Here are these interesting
and important statistics:
以下是這些有意思和重要的 統計： These figures show you what percentage you need to save in order to receive a retirement income equal to 2/3rds of the final year of a working salary. 這些數字顯示若要領到相當於退休前工 資三份之二的退休金，大約需要積攢多少 比例的收入。
If you started saving … 若在下列年紀開始儲蓄… At age 25 you only need to save 10% of your income every year till retirement
25歲：每年只需儲蓄10%的收入直至退休。
Age
Need to save from Income
30
13%
40
23%
50
46%
60
74%
It is clear to see from these figures what the “cost of delay” can be if you do not save early in life. Take note that if you wait till your 50s to start a plan, you might have to save 50% of your income to get yourself a sensible pension income – ridiculous you might say! But how much are you saving these days? 從這些數字不難看出「拖延的代價」。 注意，若你等到50歲才開始儲蓄，那就得 攢下一半的收入才能有一份體面的退休 金——也許你覺得荒唐，可是現在的你究 竟能攢下多少收入？
It is clear and obvious that the time to start a pension plan is as early as possible, AND if you have not already started then NOW is the time to begin. 退休金計劃愈早開始愈好，若你尚未開 始，現在便是行動時候。
The Age Old Question 「老」問題 The sources of pensions to meet our higher expectations are becoming less and less certain. Additionally many existing company schemes penalize employees, at least, in respect of the employer’s contributions, if they leave with only a few years’ service. 能滿足我們期望的退休金來源越來越不 安穩。許多現有的公司計劃中，對那些服 務短短幾年便離職的僱員都有懲罰規定， 至少是在僱主供款這一項上。
The fact is that a personal pension fund is the essential way to provide the capital and income necessary for the fulfillment of your retirement expectations.
歸根結底，一份握在自己手裏的退休 金，才是提供資本和收入來滿足你退休期 望的根本之道。
After all, if you fail to plan, you plan to fail! The Magic is obvious… Save now for a better future…
記住，你不理財，財不理你！魔法就在眼 前，為美好的將來從現在開始儲蓄 。|AT|
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Economy
追隨價值投資大師的風範：市場乘數估值法
Emulating the Style of
Fundamental Rock Stars: Investor M A R K E T û M U L T I P L ES 作者 By Daniel Chow
Continuing the series of how to emulate the style of fundamental investor rock stars, this article looks at the different valuation techniques that can be used to value a stock, with a particular focus on the widely used and easy to apply market multiples analysis technique. 追隨價值投資大師的風範——本期文章為您講解各種股票估值技術，尤其是應用廣泛而簡 單易學的市場乘數分析技術。 While a discounted cash flow
based valuation is theoretically the soundest approach to value assets or businesses in an investment analysis exercise, alternate valuation approaches are also used to form a holistic view through multiple perspectives on the value of a stock. 在投資分析中評估資產或公司的價值，理 論上要屬現金流量貼現估值法最為穩妥， 然而我們亦可運用其他的估值方法，從不 同角度對一支股票的價值得出全盤認識。
One such alternate valuation approach is known as market multiples analysis (also known as comparable companies analysis or direct comparison analysis), which is widely used to value companies with high growth potential but limited operating track record. 市場乘數分析（亦稱「可比公司分析」 或「直接比較分析」）便是其中之一，它 被廣泛用於對高增長潛力但營運歷史還不 長的公司進行估值。
The concept behind the use of market multiples analysis is that similar assets should sell at similar prices. A company
would be an appropriate comparable if it shares a similar risk and growth profile as the company being valued. 採用市場乘數估值法的背後理念是，類 似的資產總是按相若的價格出售的。若一 家公司的風險和增長狀況跟被估值公司相 似，則該公司便是合適的可比公司。
In selecting comparable companies, several criteria such as the industry classification, technology, clientele, size, leverage, growth, similarity in financial ratios are applied. If the company being valued is a multi-business company, several groups of comparables should be selected, each of which corresponds to one of the target company’s principal businesses.
選擇可比公司需從行業分類、技術、客
戶、規模、槓桿、增長、財務比率相似性 等方面著手。若被估值公司從事多元業 務，應選擇幾類可比公司，每類對應目標 公司的一項主營業務。
There are five steps in the application of the market multiple approach : 市場乘數法分為五步：
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Identify comparable companies 識別可比公司 Calculate key ratios for comparables 計算可比公司的主要比率 Average the key ratios 計算主要比率的平均值 Apply average ratio to obtain indicative value 用平均比率得出參考價值 Make a valuation judgment 作出估值判斷
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
Illustration I: The Five Steps of Market Multiples Analysis 圖I：市場乘數分析的五個步驟：
Step 1
Step 2
Identify comparable companies
°
°
Criteria such as growth, technology, clientele, size and leverage are used to identify comparables. Comaparables should, as far as possible, have financial ratios similar to each other and to the company being valued.
Step 3
Calculate key ratios for comparables
°
The ratio can be expressed as:
°
V x
°
°
where V=value of the firm or firm’s equity and x is some financial variable such as earrings, cash flow, book value, sales, or even some physical characteristic.
Step 4
Average the key ratios
°
Step 5
Apply average ratio to obtain indicative value
Discard outliers and average the ratios of other comparables to calculate the average ratio that should be applied to the company being valued.
°
Such average ratios should be calculated for each financial variable that is used for valuation.
°
Apply average ratios obtained in Step 3 to the absolute data of the company being valued, to arrive at the indicative value based on each financial parameter.
Make a valuation judgement
°
Based on the values calculated in Step 4, make a judgement on the value of the business.
°
The value may be calculated as a simple average of the values based on the different parameters. Alternatively, methodologies producing outliers may be discarded in computing the average.
Determine the valuation range based on these indicative values.
Calculate V/x across the comparables for several choices of x.
資料來源：Financial Modeling Guide (www.financialmodelingguide.com)
° °
第1步
第2步
第3步
第4步
第5步
識別可比公司
計算可比公司 的主要比率
計算主要比率 的平均值
用平均比率得 出參考價值
作出估值判斷
根據增長性、技術、客 戶、規模、槓桿等標準 識別可比公司。 可比公司之間，以及可 比公司與目標公司之間 應該盡可能有相似的財 務比率。
°
該比率為：
°
剔除異常值，計算可比 公司的平均比率，用於 目標公司。
°
按估值所用的每個財務 變量計算平均比率。
V x
°
其中「V」是公司或公 司股權的價值，「X」 是財務變量，如盈利、 現金流量、賬面值、銷 售額，甚至可以是物理 特性。
°
計算可比公司的V/X，其 中X有多種選擇。
°
°
用第3步得出的平均比 率，結合目標公司的絕 對數值，得出基於每一 財務參數的參考價值。 根據參考價值確定估值 區間。
°
根據第4步算出的價值， 作出估值判斷。
°
此價值可計算為不同參 數下之價值的簡單平均 值。另外，計算平均值 所用的方法如能產生異 常值，可將此方法忽 略。
資料來源：Financial Modeling Guide (www.financialmodelingguide.com) Market multiples are easy to apply and are widely used, and a good fundamental investor should be aware that as a financial valuation approach, market multiples analysis also suffers from several serious limitations. 市場乘數法使用方便，用途廣泛。但 優秀的價值投資者應知道，作為一種 財務估值方法，市場乘數法難免有一些 局限。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
We will examine some of the pros and cons of market multiple analysis, so that investors can make an informed decision on when, or when not, to apply market multiples analysis in their financial modeling and valuation exercises.
下文列舉市場乘數法的一些利與弊，好 讓投資者知道何時可用及何時不可用市場 乘數法進行財務建模及估值。
Advantages of Market Multiples Analysis
市場乘數估值法的優點 ó Common sense approach – similar
companies should sell for similar prices. 基於常識——公司相似則價格相似。
ó Can be used when other approaches like
DCF are difficult to apply due to negative and speculative cash flows. 可在其他方法失靈時發揮作用，比如現金流 量為負值或推測值時，便不適用DCF。
Economy
45
ó Marketplace transactions are used. 採取市場化交易。
ó Easy to understand and apply; uses easily available current market data eliminating the need for projecting cash flows. 易懂易用；只需市場現有數據即可，無需預 測現金流量。
ó Widely used in legal cases. 法律訴訟中廣泛採用。
ó Used by investment bankers in their
financial modeling and analysis of fairness evaluation and opinions. 常被投資銀行用來進行財務建模和分析有關 評估與意見的公允性。
Disadvantages of Market Multiples Analysis 市場乘數估值法的缺點 ó Difficult to find companies that are truly comparable – listed companies are typically larger and less risky.
難以找到真正可比的公司——上市公司通常 是規模大但風險小
ó Each step in valuing using multiples
analysis is subjective and provides an opening for manipulation of results. The multiples approach can justify a wide range of values for businesses. 估值步驟主觀性強，結果易被操縱。乘數法 得出的公司價值可能相去甚遠。
ó Builds in errors (overvaluation or
undervaluation) that the market might be making in valuing similar businesses. 市場可能對類似公司估值失誤（高估或低 估）。
ó Business being valued is typically not an
“average” business and has unique growth and risk profiles. Ignoring fundamentals can lead to significant errors in valuation. 目標公司可能並非「一般」的公司，而是具 有獨特的增長和風險特點。忽視基本面會導 致嚴重估值偏差。
ó Using the Price to earnings (P/E) ratio
ignores the cost of capital, time value of money and is sensitive to the accounting policies adopted. 採用市盈率（P/E），忽略了資本成本和資 金的時間價值，而且對所用的會計政策很 敏感。
A good fundamental investor should also be aware that besides the Market Multiples, there are a number of other financial valuation techniques that can be used to provide different viewpoints in making an investment decision. 優秀的價值投資者應知道，除市場乘數 法之外還有許多財務估值技術都能為投資 決策提供依據。
As mentioned earlier, while market multiples are easy to use and provide a decent yardstick on the comparable value
of a stock, the most commonly used valuation method used by fundamental investors is in fact the Discounted Cash Flow approach.
如前所述，市場乘數法固然簡單易用且能 為股票估值樹立標尺，但是價值投資者最常 用的估值方法其實卻是現金流量貼現法。
Theoretically the soundest of valuation techniques, the discounted cash flow valuation approach leverages the concept of the time value of money, to derive the maximum price an investor should be willing to pay for the stock today. Other valuation concepts include Asset Replacement Cost and Control Premium. 現金流量貼現法是理論上最穩妥的估值 技術，其利用資金的時間價值這一概念， 得出投資者願為某支股票支付的最高價 格。其他估值方法還有資產重置成本法、 控制權溢價法等等。
The appropriate valuation technique to use will depend upon a number of characteristics of the stock being valued. Investors valuing a stock have to choose between different approaches and within each approach, between different business forecast scenarios. A good fundamental investor will typically consider several different valuation techniques in parallel to arrive at a “fair valuation” for a stock to make their buy or sell decisions. 究竟哪種方法合適，取決於目標股票的 特質。投資者評價一支股票的價值，要在 不同的方法之間作出取捨，並且每一種方 法都有不同的業務預測情形。優秀的價值 投資者會同時考慮多種估值技術來得出股 票的公允價值，作為買賣決策的依據。
There are several programs available
that will teach you the fundamentals of financial valuation and analysis, equipping you with the knowledge and skills to correctly interpret and use financial valuation techniques to make better investment decisions. One such program is the Certified Financial Analyst e-Coach program available online from Finance 3.0 (www.finance30. com), a Business & Finance Professional Education Network. 某些電子程式可教您有關財務估值和分 析的基礎知識，讓您掌握必備的知識與 技能以正確解讀和運用財務估值技術， 作出更為妥當的投資決策。譬如商業及 財務專業人員教育網絡Finance 3.0（www. finance30.com）提供的Certified Financial Analyst e-Coach program，便是這樣的電子 程式。|AT| Credits 致謝
The writer is the Editor in Chief of Finance 3.0 (www.finance30.com), a Business & Finance Professional Education Network. Thousands of finance professionals from Wall Street, Fortune 500 companies, Big 4 CPA firms and management consulting firms use the Finance 3.0 platform daily to connect and learn about: Financial Markets & Investments, Corporate Finance & Valuation, Financial Modeling, Forecasting & Simulations, Financial Engineering & Mathematics, Financial Risk Management, Strategic Financial Management and Accounting 本文作者為商業及財務專業人員教育網絡 Finance 3.0（www.finance30.com）主編。每天都 有成千上萬來自華爾街、《財富》500強公司、 四大會計師事務所、管理諮詢機構的財務專家藉 助Finance 3.0平台交流和學習： 金融市場與投資、企業財務與估值、財務建 模、預測與模擬、金融工程與數學、財務風險管 理、策略性財務管理與會計
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
46
Technical Overview of Markets World Market Performance (as of July 17, 2009) 環球市場表現（截至2009年7月17日）
Country 國家
StockChart Code StockChart 代號
Current Price 當前點位
1/4-Yr MA 3個月移動平 均值
1-Yr MA 1年移動平 均值
Rally from ‘09 base 從09年低位反 彈幅度
Retracement from rally high 從反彈高位回 落幅度
YTD Performance 年初至今表現
USA 美國
$spx
940
902
961
43.5%
30.0%
2%
Philippines 菲律賓
$psec
2,553
2,343
2,207
50.5%
31.1%
36%
England 英國
$ftse
4,361
4,291
4,460
30.6%
40.0%
-2%
Japan 日本
$nikk
9,344
9,405
9,770
44.9
35.6
5%
$hsi
18,361
17,304
16,538
68.9%
25.3%
28%
$ssec
3,183
2,753
2,329
32.4%
62.1%
75%
Hong Kong 香港 China 中國
A Mid Year Review 半年總結
The first half of 2009 witnessed a global rally that showed recovery gains of over 30%-70% by various world indices. This sharp recovery countered over pessimism and provided for the normalization of 2008’s extremely bearish expectations. So far positive trend indications have surfaced. Breaks in major down trendlines, positive momentum shifts in MACD and RSI as well as ample support bases have formed to sponsor the cause for recent advances. Moreover the recovery also managed its way
Bearing with the Bottoming Out Process
into commodities and treasury yields reinforcing the speculative idea that the worst is may be over and that gradually a period of protracted recuperation may be underway.
築底過程需耐心
2009年上半年環球股市普遍反彈，漲 幅達到30%-70%。凌厲的漲勢打消市 場的悲觀情緒，扭轉了2008年極度看空 的心態。迄今為止，趨勢指標走勢良 好。隨著市場突破重要的下降趨勢線、 MACD和RSI趨好，加上底部支撐有力， 這些都為近期的上漲奠定堅實基礎。更 重要的是，商品和債券市場亦現回暖， 使人不禁揣測最壞時期或已過去，後市 將迎來穩步復甦。
Although its can be said that a bottoming out process is underway, such basing blueprints can be notoriously difficult to bear with as oftentimes a bottoming out process materializes in two stages. First a strong rebound period coming off an extremely bearish capitulating swing. This rally can last from 4 to 10 months long and show considerable gains. The difficulty will 900
日進鬥金
Instant Wealth 貪婪
害怕
Pa n
恐慌拋售
Selling Panic
Greed
財富蒸發
Lost Wealth
樂觀看漲
Optimism
憧憬
狂 熱
M
Hope
信心滿滿
漠不關心
No Interest
800
700
絕望 600
500
漠不關心
No Interest
恐懼
Fear Desperation
Doubt
Despair
Short lived Confidence Confidence
疑心重重
ic
Limited Credit Available 信貸收緊
短時恢復信心
an
ia
Abundant Credit Available 信貸充裕
The Bubble Bursts
慌
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
Euphoria
Fear
泡沫破裂
恐
Although its can be said that a bottoming out process is underway, such basing blueprints can be notoriously difficult to bear with as oftentimes a bottoming out process materializes in two stages.
極度興奮
Pessimism 悲觀看空
絕望
300
Doubt 疑心重重
Rumors
400
200
傳聞四起
The Bullish Left 左 - 多頭
右 - 空頭 The Bearish Right
100
0
Techinical Overview of Markets
show when this first major bounce is first ignored and scoffed at but when its shows a stunning result in gains, convinces even the best minds that all is finally well. It brings about a period of shot lived confidence. This drags many to support buying new positions into pricey levels, when fair values have been achieved or slightly surpassed.
in recent earnings, economic numbers and state of global interest rates, this scenario may only have a 10% chance of surfacing.
情形1 回調38%
現在市場大約有25%的概率走出這種調 整形態。第二種U形調整是時間和價格相 結合的調整，若能在幾個月內回調50%62%，便可糾正超買狀態，亦可留出幾個 季度觀察復甦是否真正到來。鑒於3月以 來市場已有相當漲幅，這種調整形態的概 率最大，約有65%左右。最後一種的W形 雙重底是最壞的情形。在全球經濟持續低 迷下，它能引發市場大幅回落到足以造成 恐慌的低位。不過，考慮到近期反彈的幅 度、經濟數據還有各國的利率狀況，這種 形態的幾率只有10%。
情形2
回調50-62%
雖說築底過程已經展開，但這過程將充 滿煎熬。築底過程一般有兩個階段。首先 是是一輪軋空的強勁反彈，可持續4-10個 月之久，漲幅驚人。反彈初期常不被人重 視，甚至嗤之以鼻，然而不斷累積的漲幅 足以讓最精明的投資者看好後市。這段時 期，市場信心短時高漲，吸引許多人高位 入貨，即使已經達到甚至略微超過公允價 值也在所不惜。
情形3
回吐全部漲幅或下探前期低位
Waiting for Confirmation
漲幅，用「神奇數字」計算回調幅度在 38%左右。
The second part comes with a large or major reaction. After reloading investors back thinking that markets will no longer detract, the new overhang may pull over the recovery to the side and foster another corrective wave. The following cases may then be observed. A sidewards skip, a partial retracement, or the dreaded double dip or W-formation. The first or sideward march could simple provide a leeway of time for fundamentals to catch up with recently achieved price gains. Oftentimes Fibonacci retracements of about 38% of the wide recovery may come about while in this sidewards shift.
Today’s scenario has about a 25% chance of showing this type of corrections. The next type which sponsors a partial retracement, offer a combination of time and price into the reactive effort. Perhaps showing retracements of about 50% to 62% of the rally over a few months can also clear up overbought conditions and allow a few quarters of information to see whether the recovery is coming to action or not. This likely has the greatest chance of manifesting offering a 65% of surfacing given that prices have already seen a handsome degree of ascent since March. The last type which is the double dip or W-formation is the worst case scenario. It prompts major pull back to panic stricken lows forced by lingering weakness in the global economy. Given candid recoveries
第二階段是大幅劇烈調整。當投資者以 為市場不會再跌的時候，新的拋盤便會湧 現，打壓反彈之勢，並醞釀新一輪調整， 此時將出現三種情形：橫向整理、U形調 整、W形調整（雙重底）。第一種的橫向 整理可留出時間讓基本面跟上近期的價格
47
等待確認
As always time will tell but if pays to be observant in noticing which type of correction is more likely to surface. Some clues may be given by watching for larger than normal rebounds that
As always time will tell but if pays to be observant in noticing which type of correction is more likely to surface.
再
次
回
調
浪
一
第
市
牛
的
特
略
艾
JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
48
Technical Overview of Markets
can confirm the markets intent. We look for such potency with the recovery wave expectation from Elliot’s Wave Theory.
時間將會揭曉答案。投資者需注意觀察 最可能出現哪種調整，留心那些大得不同 尋常的反彈，從中發掘線索來研判市場意 圖。我們可藉助艾略特的波浪理論來尋找 潛在的反彈浪。
It is said that “In a bear market, a three wave advance should be followed by a resumption of the downtrend.” And that “…a five wave rally would warn of a more substantial move to the upside and might possibly even be the first wave of a new bull trend.” (Technical Analysis of Financial Markets – J. Murphy p.376) 理論告訴我們「在熊市中，三重升浪過 後將重新開啟跌勢」，以及「…一個五浪 反彈預示著上漲的到來，甚至可能是新一 輪牛市的第一浪」（約翰•墨菲著《金融 市場技術分析》，376頁）
Thus we are now fostering the rally wave 3 phase of the global markets swing and its ability to hold a higher low base and bring about one more major rally would confirm the presence of the beginning of the bull market phase. If not then markets may strive to pullback and offer a Case 2 or Case 3 scenario before attempting to properly base out. This decision should pull itself trough into the next quarter or two. 環球市場正在醞釀第三浪，如果底部能 抬高並展開又一輪大反彈，則可確認牛市 階段已開始，否則市場將陷入回調，出現 第二種或第三種形態，而後進入築底階 段，估計未來一到兩個季度都會在底部徘 徊。
What to do in the meantime 如何操作？
In the meanwhile, as prices strive to continue with its recovery, utilize your technical trading strategies to follow on this recovery. As long as short to medium term uptrends proceed there will be opportunities to capitalize on. Keep in mind the following technical guides to while trading with short term trends: 當市場延續反彈時，你應運用交易策略 把握住機會。只要中短線升勢繼續，便有 可趁之機。在短線行情中要牢記以下的技 術提示： ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009
P Higher-lows and higher higher offer
P And always.. always have your protective
P Allow prices to show retracements to
As the recovery fosters, proceed to utilize the above mentioned tactics to support your cause until momentum runs dry and the need for more weighted reaction becomes more material. Remember that scared money makes no money… and that even short term trends can be quite remunerating to the prepared and willing mind.
better up time and promise 底部與頂部抬高可放心操作
their 16 or 32-day Moving Average support structures when looking for buys 等待價格回撤到16日或32日均線時低吸
P Move in after proper breakouts from
setup patterns that surface with positive buy signals from momentum signals such as your MACDs and Stochastics 有效突破既有形態並且MACD、隨機指 標等動能指標發出買入信號時即可入場
P Try to avoid pouring it one when there
are extreme readings in your RSI (>70%) RSI過高(>70%)不宜戀戰
stops in recent support structures 一定要在近期的支撐區域設好止損位
反彈之際用上述策略指導操作，直至動 能衰竭和回調將要來臨。記住，千萬別抱 想贏怕輸的心態，只要準備妥當意志堅 定，縱使短線行情亦能帶來豐厚回報。|AT|
50
ATIR Market Report
Nikkei 225 (Japan) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
9,455
9,050
10,170
11,500
Nikkei to try its recent highs The Nikkei managed to secure a new foothold for itself after its recent corrective swing. The pullback showed almost tagged a Fibonacci 38% retracement which did well to correct its four month run. Support is now seen between 9,455 and 9,050 and its topside range still shows in its recent highs (10,170) which may clearly be targeted very soon. Although the index shows one of the weaker performers into this reaction and rally, its recent push above the 1-Yr MA offers the capacity to reach over recent highs if not slightly higher.
Strategy: Range trades this index up to its highs or slightly above it. Expect a consolidation pattern to draw out thereafter as momentum indicators do show residual selling pressure. Short term highs could be expected between 10,170 and 11,500.
Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
3,160
3,016
3,500
3,786
Last High on 07/23/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
4500
3316.661 3331.026 2375.045 1664.925 2809.3928 3016.7634 2358.5920
4000
3500
3316.661 3016.763 2809.393 2500
2358.592 2000
1500
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
112.2844 7.6659
112.2844 104.6185 7.6659
-100 100
RSI on Close(14) 76.38
76.38 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 26
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
2008
Jan 23
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 27
Jun 30
Jul 31
Shanghai Index proceeds with up channel This Chinese index proceeds to climb along a channeled pattern and maintains its fluid upward trend. Short term support is starting to stretch away from its price and with an RSI value over 75% does solicit some overbought concern. Expect some choppy action to swing along this trend as occasional corrective gusts will surely follow its upward and extended drive. Also be conscious of a possible down cross by its MACD which would necessarily push for a wider reactive swing.
Strategy: As the channel offers a range of security, a Hold is still recommended with a careful eye peeled over support. Only a brake below 3,160 can prompt a wider reactive swing that can induce a profit take recommendation. A better buy opportunity should surface closer to 3,160 or 3,106.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
ATIR Market Report
51
Set Index (Thailand) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
589
556
640
715
Last High on 06/26/08 Average Low on 11/26/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
607.04 787.48 535.35 380.05 557.9492 593.5975 529.1353
800
700
The Set may also test its ability to scale up
607.04 593.60
The Thai Set index has also set forth on a comeback rally after showing a 38% Fibonacci retracement. The recovery bounce however surfaced after some divergences and may not spell out too much upside power as many global indices may show. Nevertheless it’s should offer the capacity to retry it recent high at 638-640 thereafter it could produce a more defined range. So long as it can stand above its 65-day (quarterly) moving average, some decent support should be able to keep its trend upward bound.
557.95 529.14 500
400
6.9922 -40 100
58.00 50 Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
2008
Strategy: A Hold stands but given the box-like formation the index has been pushed into a range trade would currently be pushed. A better buy would stem closer to 589-556 while expect some resistance near its recent high of 640.
Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,057-2,000
1,888
2,200
2,500
Last High on 07/02/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
2153.360 2394.171 1705.339 1089.340 1933.7921 2057.8745 1692.6045
2400 2200
2153.360 2057.875 2000
1933.792 1800
1692.604 1600 1400 1200 1000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
40.5749 3.8035
40.5749 36.7714 3.8035
-100 100
RSI on Close(14) 63.06
63.06 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
The JCI pushes along its upward channel Jakarta’s Composite is proceeding with its advancing channel as it stages a new recent high. Its present short term resistance shows at 2,200 folowed by 2,500. Earlier overbought readings have eased and should allow the index to gradually progress as long as its higher low structures hold and no divergences show. The nearest support point is pegged between 2,057 and 2,000. Its RSI has not risen along with the recent rebound and if no pick takes place soon, then a possible divergence could appear and warn of heftier reactive drive.
Strategy: Hold and watch support carefully. As long as its higher low bases proceed to form then a buy in should present itself closer to short term moving averages. This buy range can be located nearer to 2,057 and 2,000.
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
52
ATIR Market Report
KLSE Composite (Malaysia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,085
1,055
1,160
1,300
Last High on 06/02/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
1154.76 1226.75 988.88 801.27 1055.3551 1083.4706 979.6552
1300
1200
1154.78 1100
1083.47 1055.36 1000
979.66
900
800
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
27.9524 14.3824 7.5700
21.9524 14.3824 7.5700
-40 100
RSI on Close(14) 80.08
80.08 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
2008
Malaysia bursts upwards but overbought The KLSE index jumped upwards formidably outpacing most other index recoveries. Momentum levels remain relatively high but overbought levels may start to instill greater choppiness. An RSI of 80% would need some attention and some corrective action to fix. Its distance to short term support (1,085) is also quite far and expressive of elevated risk. Nevertheless the index may attempt to tag its first resistance zone (1,160-1,200) before shifting into a reactive drive.
Strategy: A Hold can be maintained for the KLSE but some gradual lightening should be introduced as prices come closer the next levels of resistance. It would be preferred to look into buyback programs closer to short term support zones between 1,085 to 1,055.
PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,490
2,376
2,778
2,900 3400
Last High on 08/11/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
2612.00 2778.13 2220.68 1684.75 2376.1604 2490.1013 2209.3647
3200 3000 2800
2612.00 2490.10 2376.16 2209.36 2000 1800 1600
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
46.8299 34.6702 12.1598
RSI on Close(14) 72.53
16.8299 34.6702 12.1598 -100 100
72.53 50
The PSEi posing to break resistance The Philippine Composite made its way back to recent highs and is setting up for another shot into a new recent high. Similarly to other indices, it would likely see a new recent high into the next few days but be somewhat tempered after an initial rush. This limitation may surface due to clear overbought levels with the RSI already passing 72%. This may also subject the index to a choppy sway after its passes its resistance high of 2,626 and heads closer to 2,778.
Strategy: Hold but look to lighten closer to 2,700-2,778. Overbought conditions may need to express some reactive drive given almost fourteen days of upward action. Better support is seen closer to 2,490 to 2,376.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
ATIR Market Report
53
Straits Times Index (Singapore) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2336
2,235
2,745
3,000
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 03/10/09z SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
2470.74 3047.22 2147.45 1455.47 2252.9138 2331.1506 2092.2764
3000
2470.74 2331.15 2252.91 2092.28 2000
1500
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
100
46.6816 31.7764 14.9049
46.6816 31.7767 14.9049
-100 100
RSI on Close(14) 68.68
68.68 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
2008
The STI pushes into a new recent high Singapore Straits Times Index managed to swing back to a new recent high breaking away from its ranged boundaries. This provides extra lift as some pick up in momentum was seen. The push may enable the index to scale upwards closer to 2,600 or 2,745. Its upward flight may also be occasionally interrupted as overbought levels have also begun to show. RSI reads have already come close to 70% and by the looks of things may see a slight acceleration which would cast it to 75% in a short period.
Strategy: A Hold is also recommended for the index as it comes to feel its way closer to 2,600 and 2,745. Some lightening may be advised closer to those values as the higher end depicts a major resistance point. This zone was previously a major breakdown point which may still show some lingering concerns in overhanging supply.
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
18,750
17,700
20,300
21,540 26000 24000 22000
19696.97 18318.85 17590.24 16484.34
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 10/27/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
16000
19696.97 23492.21 16707.06 10676.29 17590.2402 18318.8477 16484.3379
14000 12000 10000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
384.1313
384.1313 216.5982 167.5331
1000 100
RSI on Close(14) 67.51
67.51 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Hang Seng punches above its consolidation The HSI surfaced from its area pattern and swung up to find its next zone of resistance. Momentum build up and the size of previous pattern seems to be viable enough to carry prices despite some overbought conditions coming up around the corner. An upside of 20,300 is first seen followed by its next resistance zone of 21,540. Some volatility may follow but solid chance exists in hitting its resistance target into the short term.
Strategy: A Hold is advised into the HSI as the short and medium term trends are angling upwards. As many indices are coming to stretch their short term swing into overbought levels, some lightening would be recommended closer to its next resistance zones.
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
54
ATIR Market Report
Kospi (South Korea) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,420
1,350
1,600
1,800
1800
1600
The Kospi breaks above its box
1496.49 1416.44 1402.20 1294.51
Last High on 08/11/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
1496.49 1775.11 1316.55 892.16 1402.2050 1416.4457 1294.5109
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
22.8635 14.2095 8.6541
The Kospi has broken above its horizontal trading range and rushes to seek its next resistance zone. This 2 ½ month long consolidation can support a price gush closer to 1,600. This should give the index some room to attract more buyers and incite growth in short term momentum. Major support is now seen right below the previous pattern’s highs at 1,420. In that event that 1,600 can be broken then the next resistance stands a considerable distance away at 1,800.
1200
1000
22.8635 1402.20 -100 100
RSI on Close(14) 69.29
69.29 50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
2008
Strategy: A Hold is similarly raised in the Korspi, if not a trading buy given that its short term upsides still show some distance. Major support at 1,420 can host a support stop to manage available risk. If prices can command a brisk swing to 1,600 then look to take some profits in lieu of a short term pullback to handle overbought levels.
All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
3,910
3,736
4,290
4,400
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 03/10/09 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
4072.60 5550.90 4066.70 3090.80 3859.1831 3908.1062 3976.8845
6000
5500
5000
4500
4072.60 3859.18 3500
3000
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
49.3488 20.4900 28.8588
-200 100
RSI on Close(14) 66.59
50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Australia attempts to gain upward traction The All Ordinaries have demonstrated a breach of its 1-yr moving average testing its grounds to showing higher highs. Completing a month long reaction the index has enabled itself to rework its advance with slightly slower upward bias. A channel may again form to control its pace. Although not officially overbought, ten days have passed since its lows and this can preempt a corrective shift to ease prices accordingly. Runaway swings from these conditions are generally quelled and are usually forced back to support a more controlled advance.
Strategy: A range trade strategy is likely offered looking at some lightening closer to resistance with the option of buybacks near short term moving averages or support of 3,910. Expect some strain closer to 4,290.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | AUGUST 2009
ATIR Market Report
55
Dow Jones Industrials US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
8,530
8,280
9,650
11,000
The Dow breaks above 9,000 The Dow Industrials took up its cudgel and forces a break above its 9,000 resistance, providing a new lease of life into the index. This may provide lift towards 9,650 but thereafter may need to ground itself for more reactive swings to fix overbought levels. The break above its 1-yr moving average indicates that existing demand has yet to meet a saturation point and commands the ability to try its next resistance. This should still posit higher lows and higher highs for the meantime.
Strategy: The Dows break above 9,000 validates a Hold order as upward momentum proceeds to build. New positions should be moved in only after necessary reactions which remedy the high levels of RSI. Support values closer to 8,600-8,530 may provide better options for new longs
NASDAQ (US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,836
1,782
2,070
2,160 2600
Last High on 08/15/08 Average Low on 03/09/09 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
1973.60 2473.20 1804.06 1265.52 1782.6904 1829.5316 1770.2686
2400
2200 2000
1800
1600
1400 1200
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
36.8236 20.3487 16.4749
0 -100 100
RSI on Close(14) 75.02
50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
NASDAQ leads the way a little too sharply The NASDAQ bolted out of its consolidation with a vengeance, bouncing off its 65-day (quarterly) moving average support. Although the index still shows good stride, its RSI reading of 75% does leave much to be concerned about. A pressing reaction should come off this hefty swing as profit taking will likely result. But since no divergence has shown a very good chance to show a higher low stands into any corrective drive – one that could sponsor the next buy window.
Strategy: A Hold or Lighten may be issued for the index as overbought levels may likely stem the extendedness of its recent action. A 30% pullback of its 12+day rally may be more appreciated as risk spreads to support (1.836) may be too wide for short term traders to take.
AUGUST 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
56
ATIR Market Report
S&P 500 (US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
930
910
1,000-1,044
1,200
Last High on 06/18/08 Average Low on 03/06/09 SMAVG on Close(65) SMAVG on Close(32) SMAVG on Close(260)
976.29 1349.59 976.50 666.79 909.8638 919.7219 956.2387
1400 1300 1200
The SP500 breaks resistance
1100 1000
The SP500 triggered a break above resistance and now allows the index to look a little higher closer to 1,000-1,044. This resistance target is the only major supply zone seen before 1,200 – and may cause some to foster selling near this short term zone. Nevertheless the index could work up a new channel range to support its recent advance. Given that it has also extended itself since its recent low of 869 close to two weeks ago, this may also need a reaction to regulate.
900 800 700
MACD on Close(12,26) Signal on Close(9) MACD2 on Close
12.7464 5.0879 7.6585
0 -50 100
RSI on Close(14) 70.91
50
Jun 30
Jul 31
Aug 29
Sep 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31
Jan 23
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jul 31
Jun 30
2008
Strategy: A Hold or Lighten may also be issued for the index as overbought levels may soon need some consolidation time to fix. Look for better buys closer to support values of 930 to 910. It is very important that this index stay above the 65-day (quarterly) moving average to keep any buy prospects open.
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