2021 Market Review & 2022 Market Forecast
MAINE - the way life should be is a phrase that appears to be resonating with more people, as indicated by the current real estate market here. The wonders of our state, from the coast to the mountains, lakes, rivers and all the culinary offerings in between are attracting more and more people. In 2021, 37% of real estate purchases were made by buyers from out of state, up from 33% in 2020. One statistic coming from the U-Haul Growth Index shows Maine as the #8 most popular destination for moves in 2021, up from ranking at #29. All of this popularity served as fuel for the raging real estate market as you can see in the charts below. In 2020 the median price of a home in Cumberland County was 350k and in 2021 it jumped to 425k - a 21% increase. York County saw the median home price rise to 365k in 2021, an increase of 45k from 2020 when a median home cost 320k. Androscoggin, a place where you can still find a home for under 300k, saw prices increase from 213k to 248k in 2021, a jump of 16%. Up in the Mid-Coast, homes in Sagadahoc went from a median price of 331k to 391k, an 18% increase.
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on January 14, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 and January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020.
LACK OF INVENTORY = HIGHER PRICES Supply chain issues are everywhere, including real estate - more people moved to Maine, but the number of houses for sale remained flat. New construction has not kept pace with demand, and the rising prices did not inspire Mainers to cash out and sell. In fact, the change in number of sales was so insignificant, it is best represented in a chart instead of a graph.
MEDIAN HOME SALES 2020 vs 2021 Change
Percent Change
County:
2020
2021
Cumberland
5,156
5,244
6%
York
4,157
4,188
0%
Androscoggin
1,358
1,450
6%
Sagadahoc
569
554
-2%
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on January 14, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 and January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020.
Greater Portland Portland South Portland Westbrook Windham Gorham Gray Cape Elizabeth Scarborough Falmouth Cumberland North Yarmouth Yarmouth Freeport
MEDIAN PRICE OF A HOME 2020 VS 2021 Southern Maine
2020
2021
$365,000 $330,000 $290,500 $310,000 $335,000 $316,500 $600,000 $460,000 $580,000 $454,750 $437,500 $505,000 $430,000
$463,000 $385,000 $340,000 $375,000 $396,500 $351,000 $687,500 $498,500 $649,000 $547,000 $600,000 $624,000 $494,900
% Change
26% 16% 17% 20% 18% 10% 14% 8% 11% 20% 37% 23% 15%
Midcoast Brunswick Topsham Harpswell Bath Phippsburg Georgetown Wiscasset Boothbay Waldoboro Thomaston Rockland
2020
Saco Biddeford Buxton Standish Kennebunk Kennebunkport Wells York Sanford Waterboro
2021
$325,000 $370,000 $301,500 $355,000 $299,000 $339,750 $285,000 $340,000 $415,900 $474,950 $675,000 $851,000 $350,000 $410,000 $498,250 $575,000 $219,900 $264,750 $245,000 $285,000
% Change
13% 17% 13% 19% 14% 26% 17% 15% 20% 16%
Central Maine 2020
2021
$287,000 $281,000 $437,500 $231,000 $385,000 $455,000 $247,500 $325,000 $192,000 $201,500 $210,000
$335,000 $340,000 $609,250 $275,000 $372,000 $515,000 $287,000 $430,000 $230,000 $221,500 $225,000
% Change
16% 20% 39% 19% -3% 13% 15% 32% 19% 9% 7%
2020
Augusta Hallowell Gardiner Belgrade Manchester Winthrop Readfield Vassalboro Dresden Whitefield
$165,000 $244,500 $179,900 $320,000 $254,000 $235,000 $229,900 $206,000 $270,000 $185,000
2021
$200,000 $257,527 $216,500 $334,000 $322,000 $250,000 $325,000 $232,000 $245,000 $250,000
% Change
21% 5% 20% 4% 26% 6% 41% 12% -9% 35%
Lakes Region and Lewiston-Auburn Raymond Casco Naples Bridgton Harrison Sebago Oxford Poland Lewiston Auburn
2020
2021
$355,000 $268,475 $265,500 $255,000 $238,500 $247,000 $180,000 $249,400 $179,000 $196,500
$425,000 $315,000 $312,500 $290,000 $351,250 $357,050 $235,000 $304,900 $220,250 $229,000
% Change
19% 17% 17% 13% 47% 44% 30% 22% 23% 16%
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on January 14, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 and January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020.
BUYERS MARKET vs SELLERS MARKET In order to accurately price a home for a seller and advise a buyer on making an offer, one component we look at is the absorption rate, which measures supply and demand based on the amount of inventory and pace of sales. SELLER’S MARKET (0-6 month supply) Demand exceeds supply which drives prices up and favors sellers in negotiations BALANCED MARKET (6 month supply) Supply and demand are stable BUYER’S MARKET (6+ month supply) Supply exceeds demand driving prices down and favors buyers in negotiations. Though Maine is largely a seller’s market, there are important distinctions within areas and by price point. For example, let’s look at South Portland, which has a wide variety of houses from private residences to densely packed neighborhoods, and also stunning oceanfront homes. For homes under 500k, there is less than two weeks of inventory. For those priced between 500k and 1 million, the pace is almost identical. Homes priced over 1 million currently have enough inventory to last 3 months based on the absorption rate.
HOMES UNDER 500K Total Homes for Sale: 12 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 86 Absorption Rate: 28.7 Months of Supply: .4 Months HOMES OVER 500K - 1 Million Total Homes for Sale: 3 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 15 Absorption Rate: 5 Months of Supply: .6 Months HOMES OVER 1 MILLION Total Homes for Sale: 1 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 1 Absorption Rate: .3 Months of Supply: 3 Months
HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS Sellers Market Continues Most economists expect low inventory and high price trends to continue in 2022. Rising Interest Rates It is a question of “when” interest rates will jump and how high. Second home loans are going up in the spring, and interest rates will continue upwards which will reduce the capacity of buyers to borrow. However, the shortage of inventory is so dire that prices are not expected to fall, only to rise at a slower pace. Inflation and Real Estate Inflation will favor homeowners as values continue to rise, and for owners of investment property, rents will also continue to rise. Rising interest rates will diminish buying power for those entering the market. Multi-Family Home Demand Spreads With new rental restrictions in Portland, investors have been scooping up properties and driving up prices in surrounding areas from Biddeford to Auburn. Prices (and rents) are expected to keep rising.
2022 BUYER AND SELLER GUIDE If you are considering buying or selling in today’s market, the expertise of an agent has never mattered more. We are happy to share our buyer and seller guide with you, your friends, or family members. Reach out today for your complimentary copy. Topics include: • Home Buying Process • The Selling Process • Coming Soon and OffMarket Properties • Submitting a Winning Offer • How Much Does Closing Really Cost • Marketing Plans in a Digital World • And So Much More!
2022 BUYER GUIDE
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2022 SELLER GUIDE
REAL ESTATE IN MAINE: 2020 VS 2021 Units Sold
Units Sold
2021
2020
27,945
7.9% Increase
Residential Sales in Dollar Volume
2021
2020
$8.9 Billion $7.2 Billion
30,160
Land Sales in Dollar Volume 2021
$598 Million
2020 $418 Million
43.1% Increase
23.6% Increase
Units Sold 2020 vs 2021: Single Family Condominium
2021: 20,630 2020: 20,252 1.9% Increase
2021: 2,474 2020: 2,136 15.8% Increase
Land
Manufactured
2021: 5,955 2020: 4,665 27.6% Increase
2021: 1,101 2020: 892 23.4% Increase
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on January 14, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 and January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020.
MAINE REAL ESTATE BEST OF 2021 The most expensive single family home was listed in Maine for
$8.9 Million in Bar Harbor
The largest parcel of land sold in Maine was 3,910 acres in Dallas Plantation The most expensive Condominium listed in 2021 went on market for
$3.2 Million in Ogunquit
ABODE SALES in 2021: 163 HOMES $64.4 MILLION in VOLUME