2022 MID-YEAR REPORT
Real estate in Maine has tracked like a rocket ship launch for the past two years. We’re not talking about a model rocket you buy at a hobby shop, we’re talking full on Saturn V, one way ticket to the moon. Nearly a decade of rising prices has caused the current change in trajectory to feel overwhelming. What we are seeing now is a change of course that is “normalizing” the angle of growth. Low interest rates, lack of supply, pandemic induced geographic mobility, and too much time at home, created a powerful demand that drove prices at a ridiculous clip. The Feds have used a sharp interest rate increase to change the course, and so far it has proven to be effective. The immediate changes are already showing up. Days on market have been increasing from less than a week, and price reductions on listings that have overshot the market, are popping up rapidly. Two huge differences separate today’s shift in the market from the recession of 20082010, and they are significant. The first is seller equity. One study found that on average, seller home equity grew by $64,000 from Q1 of 2021 to Q1 of 2022. In other words, houses, on average, “made” more money than average workers. The other major difference is buyer demand still outstrips supply, especially in the entry price points. The economy, as wacky as it seems, is still strong, with low unemployment, and interest rates, as of this moment, have declined slightly. It is way too early to predict if the soft landing will be achieved, but signs of a crash are not here either. Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on July 6, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2022 through June 30, 2022 and January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021.
Market Trajectory
Maine Home Prices and Deceleration Deceleration is a great word to describe decrease in velocity. In most circumstances, slowing down gently is preferred to an abrupt crash. It would be especially welcome in real estate, allowing a more balanced market for buyers, sellers, and realtors. The chart below shows the cooling of price increases, and the chart on the opposite page shows which towns have seen the greatest changes. Prices in Bath have gone up 50% year over year as buyers have come to appreciate the walkability and charm of the downtown area. Androscoggin County, home of Maine’s LA (Lewiston-Auburn) has also seen prices rise as buyers have been priced out of neighboring Cumberland county, and are now, in many cases, commuting longer distances. Developers from out-state have also taken notice, and unlike other places in Maine that are restricting growth and enacting moratoriums on building and rental rates, Auburn wants to increase its population by 25% by 2025.
MEDIAN HOME PRICES June 2021 vs June 2022 County:
2021
2022
Change % Change
Cumberland
$450,000 $497,500
10%
York
$390,050 $450,549
15%
Androscoggin $240,000 $285,000
18%
Sagadahoc
$305,000 $410,500
34%
Kennebec
$249,950 $290,000
16%
Oxford
$247,500 $275,000
11%
Lincoln
$339,000 $379,000
11%
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on July 6, 2022 for the period of June 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021 and June 1, 2022 through June 30, 2022.
June 2021 vs 2022
Median Price of a Home Greater Portland
Southern Maine 2021
Portland South Portland Westbrook Windham Gorham Gray Cape Elizabeth Scarborough Falmouth Cumberland North Yarmouth Yarmouth Freeport
2022
$437,000 $475,500 $414,500 $450,000 $355,000 $427,500 $365,000 $460,000 $375,000 $450,000 $414,495 $442,500 $749,083 $807,500 $468,225 $633,000 $677,727 $825,000 $560,000 $575,000 $612,500 $653,000 $675,000 $735,500 $540,000 $562,000
% Change
9% 9% 20% 26% 20% 7% 8% 35% 22% 3% 7% 9% 4%
Midcoast Brunswick Topsham Harpswell Bath Phippsburg Georgetown Wiscasset Boothbay Waldoboro Thomaston Rockland
Saco Biddeford Buxton Standish Kennebunk Kennebunkport Wells York Sanford Waterboro
2021
2022
$425,000 $350,200 $355,000 $337,500 $517,540 $999,500 $435,450 $580,000 $291,000 $270,000
$515,000 $356,250 $450,270 $425,000 $682,000 $540,000 $449,000 $600,000 $315,000 $337,900
2021
2022
% Change
21% 2% 27% 26% 32% -46% 3% 3% 8% 25%
Central Maine 2021
2022
$450,000 $325,000 $611,000 $263,000 $819,000 $425,000 $302,000 $472,500 $291,000 $176,000 $205,000
$368,000 $437,500 $475,000 $395,000 $558,000 $285,250 $399,750 $412,500 $362,500 $300,000 $339,000
% Change
-18% 35% -22% 50% -32% -33% 32% -13% 25% 70% 65%
Augusta Hallowell Gardiner Belgrade Manchester Winthrop Readfield Vassalboro Dresden Whitefield
$185,000 $550,000 $247,000 $330,000 $118,000 $255,000 $302,750 $320,000 $396,500 $337,500
$297,500 $430,000 $265,000 $462,450 $425,000 $250,000 $176,000 $283,750 $296,750 $237,750
% Change
61% -22% 7% 40% 260% -2% -42% -11% -25% -30%
Lakes Region and Lewiston-Auburn Raymond Casco Naples Bridgton Harrison Sebago Oxford Poland Lewiston Auburn
2021
2022
$423,500 $368,750 $294,950 $277,500 $629,000 $472,500 $185,000 $230,000 $239,000 $230,000
$425,000 $405,900 $329,000 $291,000 $257,500 $340,000 $240,000 $347,000 $276,000 $264,500
% Change
0% 10% 12% 5% -59% -28% 30% 51% 15% 15%
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on July 6, 2022 for the period of June 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021 and June 1, 2022 through June 30, 2022.
Talking Inventor y
Buyer’s Market? Not Yet. Real estate adheres to the basic tenets of supply and demand, which is why the extreme sellers market of the past two years has been a product of demand far outstripping supply. We measure the market by months of supply, and believe it or not, a balanced market has a SIX month supply of housing. In June of 2012, the average days on market was 149, almost 5 months, not the 5 to 7 days we have become used to ten years later. It is always useful to keep in mind that the market demand changes by price point. Buyer demand is usually most extreme at the lower price points when multiple buyers including downsizers, first-time buyers, flippers, and investors compete. In the chart below, focusing on segments of the market in Saco, where the median home price increased 21% June over June, you can see it is a seller’s market in all categories. However, for homes priced between 500k and 1 million, there is 2.25 months of housing supply –more than double the price point below and the price point above.
HOMES UNDER $500K Total Homes for Sale: 14 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 44 Absorption Rate: 14.67 Months of Supply: .95 Months HOMES OVER $500K - 1 Million Total Homes for Sale: 21 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 28 Absorption Rate: 9.33 Months of Supply: 2.25 Months HOMES OVER $1 MILLION
Total Homes for Sale: 1 Total Sold (Past 3 Months): 3 Absorption Rate: 1.00 Months of Supply: 1.00 Month
Buyer, Seller, and Landlord Guides
Updated for the 2022 Market Contact us for your digital or print copy.
Seller Guide 2022 Seller Guide Visit us at www.abodeteam.org
• • • • •
Process of Selling and Pricing Strategies How Much Does Closing Really Cost Marketing Plans in a Digital World Highest Return Improvements ABODE Exclusives
Buyer Guide
2022 Buyer Guide Visit us at www.abodeteam.org
• • • • •
The Home Buying Process in a Shifting Market Coming Soon and Off-Market Properties Submitting a Winning Offer The 10 Rules of Home Loans Home Inspections
Landlord Guide
2022 Landlord Guide Visit us at www.abodeteam.org
• • • • •
How to Invest in Real Estate Formulating your “Buy Box” Financing Options Strategies for Finding Great Tenants Property Management or DIY?
Show Me the Numbers
January to June
2021 vs 2022 Number of Residential Sales in Maine
10,431
Number of Residential Sales in Maine
8,836
2022 2021
STATEWIDE RESIDENTIAL SALES $3,679,588,071 $3,522,791,180
4.3% DECREASE
Based on information from Maine Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) figures pulled on July 6, 2022 for the period of January 1, 2022 through June 30, 2022 and January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021.
2021
vs
2022
Single Family Homes Sold: 8,760
-15%
Single Family Homes Sold: 7,439
Condominiums Sold: 1221
-26%
Condominiums Sold: 896
39%
Land Sold: 324
Land Sold: 449
So far in 2022... The most expensive single family home sold in Maine for
The largest parcel of land sold in Maine was
The most expensive Condominium in Maine sold for
in Camden
acres in Forkstown Township
on Commercial Street in Portland
$13.8 Million
7,320
$3.15 Million
ABODE Sales 2022 January - June 76 Homes $ 3 7 . 7 M i l l i o n i n Vo l u m e