BIG RACE TRENDS
THE AL BASTI EQUIWORLD DUBAI DANTE STAKES (GROUP 2) PREVIOUS WINNERS - LAST TEN RUNNINGS
Year 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Winner Hurricane Lane Thunderous Telecaster Roaring Lion Permian Wings Of Desire Golden Horn The Grey Gatsby Libertarian Bonfire
Trainer Charlie Appleby Mark Johnston Hughie Morrison John Gosden Mark Johnston John Gosden John Gosden Kevin Ryan Mrs K. Burke Andrew Balding
Jockey William Buick Franny Norton Oisin Murphy Oisin Murphy Franny Norton Frankie Dettori William Buick Ryan Moore William Buick Jimmy Fortune
INTRODUCTION Arguably the leading trial for next month’s Cazoo Derby is this afternoon’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes and it is usually won by a very smart middle-distance performer. The roll of honour includes North Light (2004), Motivator (2005), Authorized (2007) and Golden Horn (2015) who have all followed up at Epsom having won here. Roaring Lion went onto win four Group 1’s and last year’s champion Hurricane Lane won the St Leger, so it’s a good guide for the season! BETTING Although Hurricane Lane was a short enough price twelve months ago, prior to Roaring Lion’s win in 2018 the last winning favourite was Authorized in 2007 – so clearly the ‘jolly’ doesn’t always get things their own way in this race. Libertarian caused a major shock when landing the spoils at 33/1 back in 2013 but he is the only last ten years to have gone off bigger than 12/1. TRAINERS Of the trainers with runners this afternoon, Sir Michael Stoute has the best record having saddled six winners, his most recent victory coming courtesy of Carlton House in 2011. However, Mark Johnston and John Gosden also have strong records with five winners apiece, so be sure to keep an eye on their runners this afternoon.
SP 5/1 13/2 7/1 3/1F 10/1 9/1 4/1 9/1 33/1 3/1
Runners 10 Ran 6 Ran 8 Ran 9 ran 10 ran 12 ran 7 Ran 6 Ran 8 Ran 7 Ran
Time 2m 10.06s 2m 8.62s 2m 10.24s 2m 9.79s 2m 8.40s 2m 7.37s 2m 8.74s 2m 8.99s 2m 10.59s 2m 10.52s
Going G G/S G/F G/F G/S G/F G G/S G G
JUVENILE FORM Only a handful of the previous winners had Pattern form as a two-year-old so perhaps proven form at this level is not as important as it once was. However, despite Telecaster winning this race in 2019, he was only the third winner in the last decade who did not run as a two-year-old, which suggests that the later maturing types tend to struggle in this contest. RECENT FORM Contesting a Group race as a prep run for this race often pays dividends – a pattern worth bearing in mind when going through this year’s field. It also seems best to side with those arriving in form, with those who had finished in the top three and ran to form last time out favoured by the trends. KEY TRENDS Trained by John Gosden Group Form as two-year-old Single figure SPs
CONCLUSION Aidan O’Brien seems blessed with an endless list of potential Epsom Derby winners and looks to have another potential contender in Bluegrass. John & Thady Gosden have a strong record in this race, so their runner Magisterial must carry a lot of respect and Frankie Dettori will hoping to add another win to his name. Desert Crown is the obvious pick to give Sir Michael Stoute yet another win in the race but punters may remember we thought the same about Highest Ground. The selection is the Yorkshire based Royal Patronage, who looks to have been overlooked by the market! Statistics supplied by an independent analyst. All trends are ten year based unless stated. 58
