PAUL FERGUSON’S JUMPERS TO FOLLOW Mini Guide
20 24 -20 25
Welcome PAUL FERGUSON
Welcome to the 18th edition of Jumpers To Follow With several high-profile absentees from the Cheltenham Festival and other big races during the second half of last season, the hope is very much that we get to see these household names – in particular 2023 Champion Hurdle winner Constitution Hill – return to action in the coming months.
These more familiar horses feature in the Top-Class Performers section, with many of the horses highlighted earlier in the publication being less-exposed and younger. This year’s 50 Leading Prospects are split up between 30 from Britain and 20 from Ireland, with a further clutch of horses to note from the Emerald Isle highlighted in the Irish Extra section.
Around The Yards is my own personal view – not those of said trainers – from more than 70 stables from up-and-down the United Kingdom Point-to-Point Graduates and News From France add further – lesser-known – names to note both in Britain and Ireland, with some stables represented more than most in all of these various sections
One yard which looks to have a nice squad ahead of the new season is that of Ben Pauling. Despite being dealt the blow of losing the horses owned by The Megsons – news which broke during the Grand National meeting – the Naunton-based trainer has plenty to look forward to in both novice hurdles and novice chases. He is responsible for three of the 30 British Leading Prospects and splashed out a whopping €450,000 on an exciting three-year-old from France during the summer
This year’s A View From The Saddle section has increased to eight jockeys, with Ciarán Gethings, Jack Tudor and Kielan Woods joining regulars Sean Bowen, Harry Cobden, Brian Hughes, Jonjo O’Neill Jnr and Harry Skelton. I would like to thank all eight for both their time and assistance once again. Likewise, thanks to this year’s contributors to the Experts’ Selections, Shirley Anderson-Jolag, Rory Delargy, Page Fuller, Donn McClean, Steve Ryder and Jess Stafford, who have each nominated one horse to follow for the season.
I would also like to thank trainer Ruth Jefferson for taking the time to write this year’s Foreword. I have known Ruth for several years now and it is pleasing to see her with another exciting prospect on her hands, in the shape of Kerryhill who did feature in last year’s Point-to-Point Graduates section of the book.
Thanks to those in Weatherbys’ head office – in particular Len Peacock and Karena Boom – for making this year’s book look as polished as it does, which is in part helped by some fantastic images which accompany my words, with those photographers credited on the opening page.
That just leaves me to thank each and every one of you for purchasing a copy of Jumpers To Follow 2024-2025 As ever, your continued support is greatly appreciated and without it, there would be no point in spending several months in producing the publication.
Best of luck for an enjoyable – and productive –National Hunt season,
Paul
Foreword RUTH JEFFERSON
IN 46BC, Julius Caesar added 90 extra days to the year and introduced his new Julian calendar - naming January 1st as the start of the New Year January is named after Janus, the Roman God of new beginnings; who is believed to have had two faces - one looking back into the past and one looking forward into the future In 1582, Pope Gregory XIII reformed the calendar to more accurately reflect the time it took for the Earth to travel around the sun, cementing January 1st as the New Year. Now most of the modern world follows this Gregorian Calendar. However, the Ethiopians do not and their New Year falls in September.
For National Hunt racing fans like yourself, your New Year aligns more with Ethiopia The new season, although beginning in May, really steps up from September going forward with trainers readying their charges for the start of October. Slowly at first, but gaining in frequency, the big races start; The Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow, the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby with its namesake Grade 2 chase, swiftly followed by the first UK National Hunt Grade 1 chase of the season, the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
Paul’s book, at first self-published but now produced by Weatherbys, has become a necessity for those of you that follow the jumps season Like Janus, Paul looks back at last season to identify those horses he thinks could be worth following
this year, horses that will rise through the ratings this season and those that might be just a little bit special - landing the big prizes in our wonderful sport. With rich and varied National Hunt courses the length and breadth of the British Isles, Paul will find you many a winner throughout the racing calendar, all the way through to the our celebrated National Hunt Spring Festivals.
This book includes a statistical guide to the big races helping to point you in the right direction of a winner. Paul also takes a look at the Point-to-Point scene that now plays a huge role in separating the best from the rest. Last year, he identified our very own Kerryhill as a Point-to-Pointer to follow and I am delighted to say that this year Kerryhill features in Paul’s Leading Prospects! As well as the Leading Prospects and the Point-to-Point Graduates, Paul also takes a look Around The Yards, identifying those horses he thinks could be worth following in the months ahead and chats to several leading jockeys about the horses they are most excited to be riding this season
You will find a wealth of information contained in these pages, and would be hard pressed not to back a winner or two!
Fingers crossed our team stays fit, healthy and sound, and hopefully, we will see you all on a racecourse soon Ruth.
British LEADING PROSPECTS
GIDLEIGH PARK
BILL JOYCE
5yo Mahler – Bettys Delight (Flemensfirth)
Trainer
Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Owner
Dan Walker
Ideal Conditions
2m4f+ on soft ground
Career Form Figures 1/110-
JONJO O’NEILL – who ahead of this season joined forces (on the license) with his youngest son A J – saddled a couple of horses to win a brace of bumpers last season before the pair finished unplaced in the Champion Bumper and the Grade 2 at Aintree.
Mister Meggit had looked highly-promising before stumbling when meeting trouble-in-running on Grand National day, whilst Bill Joyce had looked equally exciting in winning on soft ground at Warwick and heavy ground at Exeter That second success came just 19 days prior to the Champion Bumper and there is a chance that the Grade 1 came too soon.
Having defied greenness at Warwick, he readily disposed of Joyau Allen (had impressed over the same course-and-distance on his previous start) under his now joint-trainer to score by 8½ lengths. On each occasion he shaped like a future stayer and this former Irish Points winner is bred to relish a longer trip once sent hurdling.
Eased down once beaten at the foot of the hill at Cheltenham, the son of Mahler can readily be given another chance and should develop into a useful novice over an intermediate trip. Given his ability to cope with heavy ground, the five-year-old is one to note during the winter months and there ought to be plenty more races to be won with him
BLUES SINGER
4yo Blue Bresil – Mayfair Music (Presenting)
Trainer
Alan King Owner
Mrs E Roberts
Ideal Conditions 2m on decent ground Career Form Figures 1-
ELIZABETH ‘BUNNY’ ROBERTS enjoyed Grade 1 success over fences with Fiddling The Facts in the late-90s and more recently, Group 1 success on the level with the Richard Hannon-trained filly Aristia and the owner looks to have another nice prospect on her hands in the shape of Kempton bumper winner, Blues Singer.
A homebred, the son of Blue Bresil made his racecourse debut in a four-year-old contest and despite suffering trouble-in-running, ran out a thoroughly convincing winner under Tom Cannon. Held-up for the most part, he appeared to be moving well at the back of the main group (easy to pick out thanks to his big white blaze) and having been faced with a wall of horses two furlongs out, he was switched up the inside before showing a fine turn of foot to sprint clear.
Although the form hasn’t really worked out, he looked in a different league to the opposition and was value for much more than the official winning distance.
Given the pace he demonstrated, he wouldn’t look out of place in a Listed bumper – Cheltenham in November springs to mind – but given his jumping pedigree, I would expect him to be sent straight over hurdles. A half-brother to Music Of Tara (a winner over hurdles and fences last season), he looks to be a most promising individual for the Alan King stable.
Around THE YARDS
PEAKY BOY COULD BE AN EXCITING NOVICE CHASER FOR NICKY HENDERSON
Nicky Martin
GOT A DREAM
ONLY fifth in a good-ground bumper at Warwick last autumn, he returned from 160 days off to win on soft ground at Huntingdon, causing a 40-1 shock under David Noonan. The son of Getaway moved really well and found plenty when challenged by the Jackpot d’Ainay (wasn’t beaten far on debut at Wincanton) before running with credit when finishing seventh in the Grade 2 at Aintree. Held-up and kept out wide, he again moved well for a long way – confirming the promising impression that he had created the time before – and he is bred to appreciate a longer trip
ITO DITTO
MADE significant progress during his second season over hurdles, winning handicaps at Chepstow (2m, good-to-soft) and Lingfield (2m3½f, heavy) as well as securing a novice hurdle success at Chepstow (2m, soft). His only disappointing run came in the Betfair Hurdle but he ended the season on a high at Lingfield and having started last season rated 98, the six-year-old is now rated 123.
Donald McCain
GALUNGGUNG
VERY lightly-raced for his age (eight) he has now won his last three starts and it is very much hoped that Donald McCain enjoys a bit more luck with this talented grey who has clearly been fragile to train. Having narrowly won a maiden hurdle at Hexham (2m, heavy) in March, he made a successful handicap debut at Bangor-on-Dee (2m3½f, soft) the following month and defied an 8lbs rise when making a smooth transition to fences at Perth (2m, good-to-soft) in mid-May. Despite being back down in trip and racing on quicker ground, he was able to fend off the opposition and provided he stays sound, could well be up to going up in class in the autumn/winter. Put up another 5lbs by the handicapper, he should improve for going back up in trip and meeting softer ground, which augurs well for the months ahead
A View FROM THE SADDLE
SEAN BOWEN
BRIAN HUGHES
KIELAN WOODS
HARRY COBDEN
JONJO O'NEIL JNR
HARRY SKELTON
CIARÁN GETHINGS
JACK TUDOR
BUTCH Olly Murphy
A VERY good 3m hurdler last season, we would like to think that he can improve again for going chasing and having schooled well before his summer break, would be one that we are all really looking forward to. He won two early-on last season when still a novice and then won for James on New Year’s Day after a break and I think that he is at his best when fresh. He is a light-framed horse and probably takes a bit of training which means that he could improve again now that he is filling out. He wasn’t at his best at Haydock but remains the best novice chase prospect in the yard
the yard. e
CAPTAIN TEAGUE Paul Nicholls
THE pick of our novice hurdlers last season, winning the Challow at Newbury but we were disappointed with him at Cheltenham. However, he was sore afterwards and I’m sure it wasn’t his true running. A high-class horse who is very uncomplicated and travels well through his races, he has already won a Point-to-Point and has always given me the impression that he would be destined for better things once jumping the larger obstacles Whilst he copes with deep ground, he hasn’t got a bad action so goes on anything
GETHINGS
CAMPAIGN TRAIL Kim Bailey
HE WOULDN’T be a normal Kim Bailey purchase but he paid £200,000 for him out of Ralph Beckett’s yard and after having a tough three-year-old year on the Flat, they decided to give him plenty of time. He stays well and will go on soft ground –won on heavy at Bath on his final start – so could be an exciting horse to go hurdling with this winter Initially bought as a possible Triumph Hurdle horse, he is certainly an interesting recruit and the time off might have done him the world of good
GALUNGGUNG Donald McCain
A HORSE who has been hard to keep right but he banged in three wins during the spring Hexham probably wasn’t his track on very soft ground then it was no shock to see him come out and win at Bangor and given that he is an eight-year-old, Donald wanted to get a run into him over fences before his break. He jumped great at Perth and the trip wasn’t a problem as he isn’t short of pace Slow ground is important to him; he certainly wouldn’t want it any quicker than it was at Perth and he is one who I am particularly looking forward to
SEAN BOWEN
HARRY COBDEN
CIARÁN
BRIAN HUGHES
SAINT DAVY Jonjo & A J O’Neill
IT WAS the plan to send him chasing last year but he was late in coming back in and he will definitely be going over fences this season. He still had a good season as he won a £100,000 race at Sandown and I fancied him to go close again off 135, but he wasn’t himself on what was really bad ground at Uttoxeter. I would be more than happy to draw a line through that run and he is one who I am looking forward to as a novice chaser
SMALLTOWN HERO Christian Williams
HE WAS beaten a long way in the Aintree bumper but it was a bit of an afterthought to run him there on debut and being only four, he was still quite weak We have always liked him at home, he has a lovely attitude and he jumped really nicely when we schooled him, so he is another to look forward to in novice hurdles. He won a four-runner Point before joining us and Gordon (Elliott) bought the runner-up for £140,000 for Gigginstown.
THE NEW LION Dan Skelton
A FULL-BROTHER to Kateira, he wasn’t really ready to run as a four-year-old and was actually declared a non-runner three times as we didn’t want to start him off on bottomless ground and pull him to pieces. He matured at home and surprised us a little with the turn of foot he showed when winning a Market Rasen bumper. Given his pedigree, he could have a very bright future and is another to be excited about for novice hurdles
NOT SO SOBERS
David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
DESPITE being quite keen, he gave me a super feel when winning a bumper at Market Rasen. I felt we were a little far back so got myself a little further forward which made him even keener, so he did a lot wrong and still won nicely We absolutely sprinted up the straight and having schooled him before he went out, I think that he could be a really nice novice hurdler this season I also think good ground could be important to him.
JONJO O’NEILL JNR
KIELAN WOODS
JACK TUDOR
HARRY SKELTON
•
Point-to-Point GRADUATES
THE BLUE ROOM Olly Murphy
A FOUR-YEAR-OLD by 2016 Ascot Gold Cup winner Order Of St George, he caught the eye when finishing runner-up at Dromanhane where he carried the silks of Aiden Murphy and is now in training with his son, Olly A half-brother to Dicey Reilly (won four times up to 2m7f) there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he could be spotted moving nicely in behind in what looked to be a decent four-year-old maiden in mid-April Despite an error at the last, he finished well and looks to be a nice prospect who will now sport the Bective Stud silks of Noel and Valerie Moran. Only Way Is Up flashed home in third and is in training nearby The Blue Room as the Malinas gelding was bought privately by Dan Skelton.
THE JUKEBOX KID Ben Pauling
STAYED-ON powerfully when winning by a wide-margin at Tinahely in April, he was picked up for £130,000 just five days later and has joined the Ben Pauling stable. A half-brother to four previous winners – including Yeah Man who won the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February – he is bred to cope with deep ground and did just that when making a successful debut for Cormac Doyle. A horse who looks to possess plenty of size, he might be sent straight over hurdles as he is already five and shapes as though he will want a relative test With that in mind, don’t be surprised to see him head to somewhere like Ffos Las where his similarly-named stable-mate The Jukebox Man is unbeaten in three starts on soft or heavy ground
Top-Class PERFORMERS
in the Grade 1 Honeysuckle Mares Novice Hurdle on her final start last term, she is an imposing daughter of Walk In The Park so is surely more likely to head over fences rather than continue over hurdles It wouldn’t be a surprise if she were to win a couple during the first half of the season and develop into a contender for this race, providing McManus with an even stronger hand in the division
Brighterdaysahead was a high-class novice hurdler last season and is expected to head over fences She was good enough to beat the geldings at Aintree and might be asked to do so again as a novice chaser, although I suspect if things got plan, the Mares' Chase will end up being her prime objective. Whilst a little unoriginal, it isn't hard to see why the bookmakers have her priced up as favourite. She remains a hugely exciting prospect. Lantry Lady is another lightly-raced hurdler who is expected to go chasing. Henry de Bromhead’s six-year-old won the Red Mills Trial on belated reappearance – and just her second start over hurdles – in February before she ran well when fourth in the Mares’ Hurdle, beaten 12½ lengths by Lossiemouth The combination of the longer trip and quicker ground contributed to a disappointing run at Punchestown but she looks to have the size and scope to take to fences and could well make up into a very smart novice. Out of an un-raced half-sister to Annie Power, the daughter of Saint des Saints – who seems to handle heavy ground particularly well – is another who could develop into a leading contender for the Mares’ Chase as the season unfolds.
CHASERS (3m+)
WINNER of the Gold Cup in both 2023 and 2024, Galopin des Champs understandably heads the ante-post market for the race once again. Beaten on his reappearance in the John Durkan, he was hugely impressive at Leopardstown over Christmas – where he beat Gerri Colombe by 23 lengths – and also looked well on top when defeating Fastorslow to win a second Irish Gold Cup. Ridden more positively at Cheltenham (than the previous year), he travelled sweetly to the home turn and once asked to take over two out, the eight-year-old eased clear and sealed victory with a fine leap at the last Kept-up to his work, he beat Gerri Colombe by 3½ lengths, with a further 9½ back to former Grand National winner Corach Rambler in third.
Beaten by Fastorslow on quicker ground in the Punchestown Gold Cup, he suffered a similar fate in April 2023 and can be readily given the benefit of the doubt having been asked to contest each and every one of the major staying chases earlier in the season. Likely to return in the John Durkan again – over what is now an inadequate 2m3½f trip – before returning to Leopardstown for the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup would seem the likely route (again) He will be nine after the turn of the year and the hope is that he gets back to the Festival at the top of his game, as he bids to emulate Best Mate who won three in a row, also aged seven, eight and nine, incidentally There would appear to be no reason why he can’t remain at the top of his game for at least one more season
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
LUMP SUM IS LIKELY TO BE AIMED AT THE SEASON'S TOP 2M HANDICAP HURDLES
Big-Race TRENDS
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE
Cheltenham (Old Course) – 2m4f 44y (Premier Handicap)
SATURDAY 16TH NOVEMBER 2024
OVERVIEW
THE first significant handicap chase of the National Hunt season, with the three-day Open meeting from Cheltenham in November representing the switch in codes – from Flat to jumps – for many a racing fan. Course form is often a huge positive in a race which tends to go the way of an unexposed and improving, young chaser Stage Star was a prime example in 2023, as his Grade 1 class shone through for Paul Nicholls, who was winning the race for a third time since 2012 The likes of Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander also won this race in their second season over fences, before developing into top-class staying chasers, so focusing on the previous season’s novices is another strong trend
PREP RUN IS A POSITIVE
STAGE STAR showed last year that the Paddy Power Gold Cup can be won on reappearance but the previous seven winners had the benefit of a having had a prep-run during October or earlyNovember All seven had run within 35 days of the race, with five of them having been in action during the month of October.
Interestingly, Paul Nicholls’ three winners – and more of his record in the race shortly – were all (effectively) having their first start of the season. Both Al Ferof and Stage Star were having their first start since being beaten in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree, whilst Caid du Berlais had run during the summer in the Galway Plate, but was having his first start of the winter campaign. It is clear that the former champion trainer can ready one at home in Ditcheat for this race
KEY RACES
BOTH 2021 winner Midnight Shadow and 2022 winner Ga Law had finished third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree some 20 days prior to landing
the Paddy Power and although the valuable Grade 2 limited handicap didn’t produce the winner in 2023, the beaten horses did include the winner of Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup, so it is clearly an earlyseason piece of form to take seriously.
Another pair of recent winners – namely Splash Of Ginge and Happy Diva – had both contested the bet365 Handicap Chase at Wetherby’s Charlie Hall fixture the time before Previously a Listed contest, it remains to be seen as to whether it will have an impact on this race going forward, with it having been downgraded in 2022.
Looking further back and three of the five winners between 2006 and 2010 had finished in the first two of the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle on their previous start, although there is again just 13 days between that race and the Paddy Power this year
And, both Taquin du Seuil and Stage Star were successful in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival This year’s Turners was won by Grey Dawning, who beat old adversary Ginny’s Destiny by 2 lengths.
COURSE FORM
THAT final paragraph leads us on nicely to course form, which seems hugely significant when it comes to the Paddy Power Gold Cup. No fewer than 20 of the past 24 winners had won or placed over fences at Cheltenham previously, including last year’s winner who was 2-2 at the track over the larger obstacles 2022 winner Ga Law became just the second winner this century to have won this race without any prior experience of Cheltenham fences, so previous course form is clearly a huge plus.
As touched upon last year, the two handicap chases staged on trials day are invariably strong contests and Ginny’s Destiny won the Timeform-sponsored novices’ handicap in 2024, before going on to finish second in the Turners. Currently rated 155 (same mark from which Stage Star won last year), he had earlier won at both the November and December meetings and clearly relishes the track. With that in mind and the fact that Paul Nicholls clearly doesn’t mind running a highclass horse in the race, it could be that the lightly-raced eight-year-old is his representative this year.
2022 Paddy Power winner Ga Law won the open handicap on trials day, with another course specialist, Il Ridoto, back in third. Between November 2022 and January 2024, his course form figures read 4416323 and if looking away from an up-and-coming, improving chaser, focusing on one who has consistently run well in races such as this is another angle of approach There are plenty of handicap chases staged over 2m4f–2m5f – on both the Old and New course – at Cheltenham throughout the season, so pay attention to those who have run well in similar events during 2023-2024.
GRADE 1 CLASS
HORSES with form in Graded company – particularly in Grade 1 races – boast a good record in the Paddy Power. 17 winners this century had earlier contested at least one race at the very highest level, whilst five of the past 15 winners were previous Grade 1 winners. That is quite a significant number and brings the ‘class angle’ into play.
Four of those five winners had been successful in a Grade 1 novices’ chase, so again, look at last year’s novices and those who appear to be dropping in class slightly, having been contesting Graded races throughout last season, particularly in the spring
Aside from both winning the Turners the previous March, both Taquin du Seuil and Stage Star had won the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury a couple of years previous Again, this shows their back class, whilst Tranquil Sea was also a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler for trainer, Edward O’Grady.
KEY TRENDS
20 of the past 24 winners had won or placed over fences at Cheltenham
16 of the past 20 winners had run 9 times or less over fences
14 of the past 19 winners were rated between 139-149
7 of the past 8 winners had run earlier in the season
17 winners this century had contested a Grade 1 race (5 of the past 15 winners had won a Grade 1)
17 winners this century returned at 10-1 or shorter
17 of the past 21 winners were aged between 6-8
12 of the past 13 winners had won (9) or placed (3) at Cheltenham previously (be it over hurdles or fences)
6 of the past 9 winners carried 11-0+
3 of the past 12 winners were trained by Paul Nicholls (all 3 won on seasonal reappearance)
Respect Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained runners
Respect Jonjo O’Neill-trained runners
No winner older than 9 since 1975
Irish-trained horses are 0-20 during the past 14 years
Nicky Henderson-trained runners are 0-28 since winning the race in 2003
Only 1 winning 5yo since 1999 (and only 2 winners of that age group in total)
Only 2 winners this century had not previously run in a chase at Cheltenham
Only 2 of the past 19 winners were rated below 139
The past three winners had all won a Graded novice chase the previous season, with Midnight Shadow and Ga Law successful in Grade 2 company.
LIGHTLY-RACED CHASERS
NO FEWER than 16 of the past 20 winners had run nine times or less over fences Whilst the majority of these winners were second-season chasers, lightlyraced chasers (in general) boast a fantastic recent record in the race and although there was a short spell between 2015 and 2019 when slightly more exposed horses were winning the race, it really can pay to focus on those with the greater scope for improvement.
Regular readers of my work will know that I am a huge advocate of siding with novices in open handicaps during the second half of the season and this is really the continuation of that Second-season hurdlers and chasers are the horses to focus on in these big, early-season handicaps as they are the ones who are still on the rise and many will be capable of bypassing the more exposed runners, who have been running in such races for a while and as a result, are more likely to be in the grip of the handicapper
AGE
RATHER in-keeping with the previous subsection, it should come as little surprise that ‘older’ horses don’t tend to do well in this race, with no winner over the age of nine since Clear Cut was successful at the age of 11 way back in 1975 17 of the past 21 winners were aged between six and eight – which is the perfect age range – with five-year-olds also performing poorly, although there were no such runners (or ‘older’ horses) in last year’s field. Since 1999, the sole winning five-year-old was Caid du Berlais with the only other successful five-year-old being Cyfor Malta in 1998. It is a difficult task for such youngsters, who don’t receive any age-allowance We see less four-year-olds being sent chasing as a result of the weight structure being amended some time ago now.
MARKET FORCES
STAGE STAR justified favouritism in last year’s Paddy Power and although he was the first outright favourite to win the race since Tranquil Sea in 2009, plenty of recent winners could have been found just behind the market leader In fact, 17 winners this century returned at 10-1 or shorter and this includes the past four winners Splash Of Ginge is the only winner during the past 13 years to have returned at odds greater than 14-1, so ‘shock’ results seem relatively uncommon in the Paddy Power.
WEIGHTS AND OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS
WHILST only five horses managed to carry 11-0 or more to success in the first 15 renewals this century (2000 – 2014), six of the past nine winners have done so, meaning that the classier horses appear to be coming to the fore Taquin du Seuil carried 11-11 to victory eight years ago, whilst Stage Star lumped 11-7 last year and this ties in well with the earlier class angle. Whilst it was once a barrier to success – or, certainly a large obstacle to overcome – carrying a big weight doesn’t seem to be as much of an issue these days Those three winners were all previous Grade 1 winners, incidentally In terms of official BHA Ratings, 14 of the past 19 winners were rated between 139 and 149, with
Stage Star becoming just the third horse to win from a mark in the 150s during the past 20 years During the past 19 years, only two winners were rated below 139, so focus on those rated higher
TRAINERS TO NOTE
WITH Torn And Frayed a faller last year, the record of Nigel Twiston-Davies since 2008 stands at three winners from 15 runners, which is a hugely respectable strike-rate in a competitive race of this nature He also won the race back in 1992 with Tipping Tim and he likes to target all fixtures throughout the season at his local track, whenever possible
Jonjo O’Neill (now joint trainer with son A J O'Neill) is another local trainer with a fine record (strikerate wise) in the race Again without representation last year, he has in fact had just one runner since successful with Taquin du Seuil in 2016, having earlier won it with Exotic Dancer (2006) and Johns Spirit (2013). Again, a record of 3-15 during the past 18 years is hugely respectable.
As touched upon in the Overview, Paul Nicholls has now also won the race on three occasions, with Stage Star ending a lean spell since his previous winner in 2014 (had 19 runners in between without success). Nicholls clearly aims more horses at the race than the likes of Twiston-Davies and O’Neill, but he has now won three of the past dozen renewals and saddled the first and third last year As touched upon in an earlier subsection, both Al Ferof and Stage Star were Grade 1-winning novices and both had last run in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Interestingly, the aforementioned Ginny’s Destiny was beaten in that same contest for the stable in April and it would seem likely that he will be aimed at this contest, given his profile and his impressive course form The eight-year-old would have to be of huge interest if taking his chance.
Martin Pipe had an astonishing record in this race, winning it eight times between 1987 and 2005, and although his son David Pipe struck with Great Endeavour in 2011, his record in the race stands at just 1-22. The Pond House team have long targeted this meeting, however, and seem likely to continue to do so. Therefore, pay attention to the Pipe-trained runners across the three-day fixture, particularly in other handicaps.
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2003 with Fondmort, but his runners are 0-28 since. Like Pipe, he was without a runner last year, but those that he does saddle should be treated with a degree of caution, given that recent (poor) record As highlighted in previous editions of Jumpers To Follow, Henderson tends to get going slightly later than
many of the other leading trainers, with the former ‘Hennessy’ meeting at Newbury often his first major target. He did manage to land the Greatwood Hurdle for the first time in 2023 (next race that you will come to in this section of the book) but for now at least, his recent record in this race is one to be wary of
THE IRISH CHALLENGE
TRANQUIL SEA (2009) was the last Irish-trained winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and with both
Final Orders (9th) and Authorized Art (P.U.) failing to make an impact last year, the record of such horses in the 14 years since now stands at 0-20. It hasn’t always been a race that the leading Irish trainers have targeted but with Willie Mullins – who has yet to win this race, incidentally – winning the British title last season, perhaps he will consider sending over more horses in the early part of this campaign In previous years, he has been a little like Henderson, in that he tends to get started a little later than most
ROLL OF HONOUR
LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES
GINNY’S DESTINY
