NAGORNOKARABAKH WAR: A NEW DEAL
Grzegorz Kuczyński
Militarily, Azerbaijan won the second war in Nagorno-Karabakh, thus taking retaliation for its defeat against Armenia in the first war. Although Moscow's formal ally lost miserably, Russia is also among the winning parties. It moved its military into the region while basically removing Western forces from there. Nonetheless, Turkey – a new dangerous actor – has entered the theater. This may wreak revenge on Russia in the long run. “This document does not settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue; it only puts an end to the war,” said Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in his address to the nation, shortly after a trilateral war-ending deal was announced by his country, Azerbaijan, and Russia. This sentence also pinpoints the core of the events that unfolded over the six fall weeks in the South Caucasus. The NagornoKarabakh dispute is not solved yet as
the agreement concluded on the night of November 9 and 10 left unmentioned the issue of the final status of the enclave. Its lion’s share is now in the hands of Armenia, with Russia playing the role of its security guarantor. The reason for both the conflict and the Azerbaijani-Armenian skirmish over the past three decades has not faded. The fighting may resume soon. What occurred after Azerbaijan’s undeniable military triumph was just 4/2020
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