Arizona January Luxury Market Stats by waltdanleycire

Walt Danley

Christie ’ s international Real Estate

Northeast Valley – Luxury Market Summary – January 2023

This summary analyzes single family homes over $500,000 in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Arcadia, Biltmore, Carefree, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills and Rio Verde.

SUPPLY

Supply dropped during December. As of January 1st, 2023, the active listing count was 15% lower than it was on December 1st, moving from 1,990 to 1,700. High interest rates are discouraging sellers as much as buyers and new listings are arriving very slowly. We measured 924 at the same time last year, so supply has risen 84% since then. There is therefore better choice for the buyers left in the market compared to a year ago. All price ranges decreased though the smallest monthly drop was for those priced over $3 million. These fell from 365 to 338. Distress remains very low. There are five pre-foreclosures and two lender-owned homes among the active listings, which is a slight decrease compared to last month.

DEMAND - SALES

Once again closings were low during December after dropping dramatically between June and October. We counted only 368 closed listings during the month, down 50% from December 2021. Sales between $500,000 and $600,000 dropped the most – down 59% compared to a year ago, but closings were down in all price ranges. It is important to note that we were in the hottest market on record twelve months ago, so year-over-year comparisons need to be taken with a grain of salt.

DEMAND – UNDER CONTRACT

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started 2023 with only 438 listings under contract, which is down 39% from 719 in January 2022. Demand was already very weak during the last three months and although it has deteriorated still further since then, it is starting to stabilize, as the annual decline is less than last month. We are likely to see closing numbers during January that are far lower than January 2022. The drop in demand has affected all price ranges. Mortgages interest rates have dropped back from the peak reached in November, so if they can find stability, sentiment could start to improve.

Paradise

Last Year 729 This Year 368 Sales Information contained in this report has been prepared by The Cromford Report exclusively for Walt Danley Realty and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2023

Valley

Office: 480.991.2050

Last Year 924 This Year 1,700 Active Listings CONTINUED ON BACK... Last Year 719 This Year 438 # Homes Under Contract

Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com

SALES PRICING

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured monthly. We therefore prefer to measure price per sq. ft. over a longer period to identify trends more accurately. The twelve-month average currently stands at $488, up 20% from $407 in December 2021. The six-month average stands at $477, up 13% from $422 in December 2021, but down from $504 in August. The three-month average stands at $473, down from the peak of $512 in June because pricing has weakened sharply over the past seven months due to the steep drop in demand and improved supply. The strong upward pricing trend that has persisted for many years has reversed course and we expect the twelvemonth average will change direction in 2023 like the three-month average did in July and the six-month average did in September.

UNDER CONTRACT PRICING

The average under contract price per square foot stands at $560, up from $545 last month and much higher than the $528 we measured a year ago. This suggests that the recent weakness in sale prices may ease during January and February.

Walt Danley Christie ’ s international Real Estate

Market Data Report

Paradise Valley January, 2023

Supply in Paradise Valley declined during December, from 176 to 154 active listings as of the beginning of 2023. This is up 12% from 137 at the same time last year but remains far below the long-term average. Closing counts came in at 26 for December, down from 40 last year but a big improvement on the previous month. Prices are weaker although the 12-month average price per square foot now stands at $728, up 24% from $588 in December 2021. The six-month average stands at $714, up 15% from $620 last year, but down 4% from August. The threemonth average came in at $723, up 9% from $661 in December 2021, but well down from the peak of $769 achieved in June. However, it is up from $716 last month. The three-month average has declined for four of the last six months, and the longer-term averages will probably weaken over the next few months. However, the downward pressure appears to be moderating.

Information is power and the real estate professionals of Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate are committed to providing our clientele with the most up-to-date market intelligence available. The information contained in this report has been compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service and various public records. This data is then scrubbed and analyzed in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for the use of Walt Danley Realty and our clients.

Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050

Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577

WaltDanley.com

Paradise Valley - January 2023

Average Price per Square Foot for Closed Transactions the Last 17 Years

Number

by Status for the Last Two Years

This graph shows the number of homes that were active in the area as of the 15th of the previous month. It also shows the number of offers that were accepted and the number of transactions that were closed within the entire month.

Average Price

This graph illustrates the importance of pricing your home properly from the beginning. The longer the property sits on the market, the steeper the discount.

The average list price of Active listings is measured the 15th of each month. Note: The “Under Contract” price is the list price, not the contract price. The contract price is not revealed until the transaction closes.

Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050

Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577

$150 $250 $350 $450 $550 $650 $750 $850 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 12 Months Avg 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% <90 <150 >150 >365 Days on the Market $7,118,657 $5,523,402 $4,098,545 0 $2.0M $4.0M $6.0M $8.0M Active Under contract Sold - Last 12 Months

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original List Price 0 50 100 150 21-Jan 21-Feb 21-Mar 21-Apr 21-May 21-Jun 21-Jul 21-Aug 21-Sep 21-Oct 21-Nov 21-Dec 22-Jan 22-Feb 22-Mar 22-Apr 22-May Jun-22 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep 22-Oct 22-Nov Dec-22 Active Accepted Offers Closed Information contained in this report has been prepared by Walt Danley Realty in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for WDR and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2023

WaltDanley.com of Listings

Paradise Valley - January 2023

Market Activity by Price Range

Active listings were measured on the 15th of the previous month. The numbers for New This Month, Accepted Offers and Sold represent the quantities for the entire previous month.

Inventory - Number of Months Supply

Average Price per Square Foot by Price Range

The number of months it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last 12 months assuming no new listings were added.

Figures for Active and Under Contract were compiled on the 15th of the previous month. Note: The “Under Contract” price is the list price, not the contract price. The contract price is not revealed until the transaction closes.

Seasonality

New Listings by Month Accepted Offers by Month Closed Transactions by Month

The charts above reflect activity by month. Each bar represents the percentage of annual business done within a specific month.

Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050

Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577 WaltDanley.com

4 10 33 68 2 3 6 17 4 7 7 4 3 6 8 2 0 20 40 60 80 <$1M $1-$2M $2-3M $3-5M $5M+ Active New This Month Offers Accepted This Month Sold This month No Active Inventory 1.3 1.8 3.6 11.7 0 12 24 <$1M $1-$2M $2-3M $3-5M $5M+ No Sales $556 $647 $696 $1,097 $755 $740 $658 $992 $591 $583 $646 $869 $250 $350 $450 $550 $650 $750 $850 $950 $1,050 $1,150 $1-$2M $2-3M $3-5M $5M+ Active - Under contract - Sold - Last 12 Mo0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Paradise Valley - January 2023

Price per Square Foot

Based on size of the home (sold over the last twelve months)

Price per Square Foot

Based on the year built (sold over the last twelve months)

Paradise Valley Office: 480.991.2050

Scottsdale Office: 480.909.4577

WaltDanley.com

$979 $632 $681 $958 $644 $713 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Traditional Short Sale REO Active Closed - Last Month Active- 12 Mo Avg Sold - 12-Mo Avg No Active Inventory Price per Square Foot By Type

$764 $675 $710 $706 $692 $804 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 <3,500 3,501-5,000 5,001-7,000 7,001-9,000 9,001-12,000 12,000+

$707 $652 $640 $631 $686 $872 $1,002 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 <1970 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s