Northeast Valley – Luxury Market Summary – May 2022 We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree. Supply At the end of April, the active listing count was much higher than the month before, moving from 980 to 1,153. This is the first time we have a seen a significant jump in supply during April for many years. We measured 1,324 at the same time last year, so supply is down 13% since then. Homes between $500,000 and $1 million have seen supply fall 29% compared to a year ago. Listings Between $1 million and $3 million are where the bulk of the additional supply has arrived. They are down only 2% compared with a year ago and are up 37% in just the last month. Homes over $3 million are down 5% from the same time last year and are up only 6% during April. Distress remains extremely low. There are four pre-foreclosures but no lender-owned homes. Demand - Sales The level of closing activity remained fairly high during April. We saw 776 closed listings, down 19% from April 2021 but much higher than all earlier April totals, the prior record being 571 in 2019. Limited by very weak supply, sales between $500,000 and $800,000 dropped 39% compared to a year ago. In contrast, the range over $2 million was down 11%, while sales of homes between $800,000 and $2 million were down 6%. Demand – Under Contract We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started May 2022 with 921 listings under contract, which is down 19% from 1,137 in May 2021 and down 5% from 970 last month. This is a weak result for both year-over-year and month-to-month changes. We deduce that we are likely to see closing numbers during May that are considerably lower than May 2021 and slightly lower than April 2022. The numbers get stronger as we move up the price ranges. Homes under $800,000 are down 37% but homes over $2 million are up 5% compared to a year earlier. Normal sales comprise 99.7% of luxury homes in escrow, with only three pre-foreclosures and no lender owned home. Sales Pricing Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured monthly. We therefore prefer to measure price per sq. ft. over a longer period to identify trends more accurately. The twelve-month average currently stands at $445, up 29% from $344 in April 2021. The six-month average stands at $477, up 29% from $369 in April 2021 and the three-month average stands at $503, up 30% from $388 in April 2021. The strong upward pricing trend continues in full swing. Under Contract Pricing The average under contract price per square foot stands at $560, up only slightly from $559 last month but far higher than the $428 in May 2021. This month the under-contract pricing implies continued increases in pricing for May and June sales, but perhaps at a less frenetic pace. Information contained in this report has been prepared by Walt Danley in conjunction with The Cromford Report exclusively for Walt Danley and their clients. All other use is expressly forbidden. © 2022
Walt Danley Christie's International Real Estate - May Stats
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