counting the chickens before they hatch
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN
Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch
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Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch
Is 2.1 the number of children a woman 'should' have?
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN
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This book is dedicated to anyone who is curious about future changes in population.
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Contents 14 Demographic Transition Model 26 Fertility Rate & Replacement Rate 08 World Population Overview
34 Abortion in the United States 42 South Korea & Nigeria 38 World Literacy & Education 52 China's One-Child Policy 28 World Contraceptive Use 40 World Migration 9
1960 2040 1980 2000 2020 1950 2030 1970 1990 2010 World Population as of the end of 2021 1 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 billion 10
Asia Europe North American South American Oceania 2021 7.87
Africa 11
billions
half the world’s population
12
lives in seven countries
2
Nigeria
United States
India
Indonesia
Brazil
China
Pakistan
Death rates
14.9 million range 13.3 million to 16.6 million is the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021.3
81%
the global death toll was higher for men than for women.3
of the 14.9 million excess deaths are accounted by middle-income countries.3
57%
14
Birth rates
139,821,086 babies were born in 2021, compared with 98 million in 1950.4
367,000 average number of births every day 4
4.86 1950
2.32 2021
50 years ago the average woman had five children, since then the number has halved. 4
1950 2021 15
Demographic transition model
1960 1980 2000 40 50 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 45 55 35 25 5 15
7,8,9 Past 16
Crude birth rates 5 Crude death rates 6 2040 2060 2080 2100 2030 2050 2070 2090 Projected 40 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 10 8 6 0 4 12 2 birth rate death rate natual increase ? ? total population in billion stage one stage two stage three stage four stage five unknown unknown 17
Stage One
The Pre-Industrial Stage
No country as a whole at present retains the characteristics of stage one. It applies only to the most remote societies on earth such as the isolated tribes in Amazon with little or no contact with the outside world.
All human populations are believed to have had this stage until the late 18th century, when many countries in Western Europe were able to cross this stage.
Men Women low average life expectancy stable/slow natural increase high death rate high child mortality rate high birth rate 18
Rapidly expansive population pyramid
Death rates increase due to subsistence agriculture diseases poor sanitation
In result, birth rates increase to compensate for the mortality rate yet they often die at young ages
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Stage Two
The Industrial Revolution
Expansive population pyramid
A number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia) are currently in stage two. The population of of Stage two countries is rising and their doubling time is short. However, the population will not continue to go up at the same rate.
Men Women average life expectancy rapidly natural
death rate
high child
high birth rate
increase
falls rapidly
mortality rate
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Death rates decrease due to improvements in farming technology public health system sanitation
Birth rates remain high due to ? cultural lag high demand in farm labor
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Stage Three
Post-Industrial Revolution
Slow growth population pyramid
birth rate falls
death rate falls more slowly
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase slows down
Men
Women
Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in stage three, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India.
South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage three.
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23
Birth rates decrease due to availability of contraception improvement in education industrialisation reduce in child labor
Stage Four Stabilization
Some of the industrialized countries such as Canada, Argentina, United States, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius are in the late stage four.
Men Women Stationary population pyramid natural increase falls then stablizes high life expectancy low child mortality rate low birth rate low death rate
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Birth rates decrease due to desire for smaller family women prioritize careers
industrialisation continues
$ limited resources
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Stage Five Declining population
This stage is a bit more uncertain. At this stage, some demographers say that fertility rates will experience shifts to either above or below replacement levels. While some experts argue that fertility levels will increase, others state the opposite.
Men Women
low
Constrictive population pyramid natural increase has little change high life expectancy
child mortality rate birth rate possibly falling further low death rate
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This depends on the society, too — while populations in South Korea, Japan, China, Australia and most of Eastern Europe are expected to fall due to lower birth rates, those in the U.S., India, and Mexico are expected to increase.
Men Women Stationary population pyramid natural increase falls then stablizes high life expectancy low child mortality rate low birth rate low death rate
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Replacement level fertility
the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. 4
2.1
East Asia 1.2 European Union 1.5 North America 1.8 Latin America & the Caribbean 1.9 Oceania 2.1
rates by regions as of July 2022 10 South Korea 0.8 Andorra San Marino Taiwan Ukraine 1 1.1 Malta Singapore Bosnia & Herzegovina Countries with lowest fertility rates 10 1.2 China Spain 28
Fertility
Fertility rate
2.31 the world’s current average live births per woman per lifetime in 2022, down from 4.7 in 1950. 4
South & Southeast Asia 2.2 Western Asia 2.5 Northern Africa 2.8 Central Asia 3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6
with highest fertility rates 10 Mali Central African R. 6 DR Congo Chad 6.2 6.7 Niger Angola 5.3 Mauritania 5.2 Burundi Nigeria 5.1 29
Countries
592 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 1950. 1
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1950
972 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 2021. 1 2021
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World Contraceptive Use
Modern methods of contraception include female and male sterilization, the intra-uterine device (IUD), the implant, injectables, oral contraceptive pills, male and female condoms, vaginal barrier methods (including the diaphragm, cervical cap and xemergency contraception and other modern methods not reported separately (e.g., the contraceptive patch or vaginal ring).
All women Married or in union women
Contraceptive prevalence rate, women aged 15-49 1 More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Any method Modern method 58 70 47 62 32 42 51 62 43 56 29 34 32
Proportion of demand satisfied with modern methods 1
79%
More developed regions
77%
Less developed regions
60%
Least developed regions
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78.7 Portugal 68.1 Albania 63.8 Malta 59.7 Serbia 59.3 Croatia Italy 59.3 57 Slovenia 56.6 Kosovo 55.7 Turkey 52.8 North Macedonia 52.5 Greece 47.9 Andora 45.7 Montenegro Bosnia-Herzegovia 44.3 96.4 Belgium 66 Spain 90.1 France 87 Netherlands 81.5 Luxembourg Germany 75.1 Austria 62.2 34
Moldova 65.8
58.5 Latvia
Ukraine 59.8
Contraception use in Europe11
Denmark 59.6
Bulgaria 56.7
Romania 54.4
Czechia 50.8
Slovakia 48.1
Hungary44.9
Russia 42.8
Poland 35.1
Azerbaijan 54.4
Armenia 53.9
Georgia 52.9
Cyprus 51.4
Belarus 44.4
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe & South Caucasus
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Finland 63.3
Ireland 65
Iceland 71.3
Norway 71.4
Estonia 74.7
Sweden 81.5
UnitedKingdom 87.6
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Abortion in the United States
Share of U.S. adults who say abortion should be___ in 2022 12 36 2 19 6 27 8 2 Legal in all cases, no exceptions Legal in all cases, with exceptions Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases, with exceptions Illegal in all cases, no exceptions No answer 37% 61% Abortion should be___if pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health. Opinions among the 37% of U.S. adults who say abortion should be illegal 12 Net illegal Net legal 27% 27% 46% Depends Illegal Legal Abortion should be___if the pregnancy is the result of rape. 27% 36% 37% Depends Illegal Legal 36
50 55 45 40 35 2014 2006 2010 2012 2016 2008 2018 2004 2020 2022 Share of pro-choice or pro-life in the United States from 2003-2022 13 pro-choice pro-life Should abortion at this stage of pregnancy be___? 12 6th week 14th week 24th week 19 7 12 8 25 6 19 19 7 19 8 15 6 22 19 7 34 8 3 6 18 37
14
8%
43%
38
Roe v. Wade Overturn & Public Opinion
9% Neither
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
25%
approve 9%
approve 6% Not sure 39
Strongly
Somewhat
World Literacy & Education
6.3% Latin America & the Caribbean 92.92% male 90.78% female Global youth literacy rate 2020 16
40
Primary 99 90 83 Lower Secondary 98 82 66 Upper Secondary 95 63 44 More developed regions Least developed regions Less developed regions Total net enrollment rate globally in 2021 17 The illiteracy rate among adults (over 15-year-old) in 2019 15 1.5% 1.5% Europe 34.7% Sub-Saharan Africa 20.6% Arab States 27.1% South Asia 4.2% East Asia & the Pacific Central Asia 41
World Migration
The Missing Factor
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Origins
India
Mexico
Destinations 42
Russia United States of America Saudi Arabia Turkey UAE
Syrian Arab Republic Bangladesh Afghanistan China Ukraine Pakistan Philippines Ukraine India Russia Pakistan Kazakhstan Iran Germany A B C D E F G H I J K L M N C Lebanon F South Korea I Belarus L Kuwait A Canada D Australia G Japan J United Kingdom M Poland B Oman E Uzbekistan H Jordan K Malaysia N Guatemala 43
South Korea, Nigeria & their fertility rates1
1960 1980 1965 1970 1975 6 7 5 1 2 4 3
44
1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 45
Why is South Korea’s birth rate so low?
a woman earns 20 a man earns share of men experienced share of women experienced During Covid-19 period, more women were found to have experienced career interuptions for child cares. 21 59.7% 41% 129 mins 7 mins On average, a woman devoted 7 times more a day on upaid work. 22
w
w 46
1000
646
Who can own a house in South Korea? 23 59.3% 10.55% 63.56% 40.19% 68% 70.31% 60.28% < 30 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 > 80 age share 47
The impact of low birth rates
Average number of students per teacher at universities in South Korea from 1980 to 2021 24 31 29 27 25 30 28 26 24 23 22 2010 1985 1995 2005 2015 1980 1990 2020 2000 74% 66 58 70 62 54 50 46 2018 2010 2014 2016 2020 2008 2012 Share of people feeling stressed in South Korea from 2008 to 2020, by gender 25 students 48
20 22 2015 1995 2005 2010 2020 1990 2000 Median age at first marriage in South Korea from 1900 to 2021 27 32 30 28 26 24 34 Reasons why people did not get married in South Korea in 2022, by gender 26 50 30 60% 40 20 10 0 Cannot financially afford it Did not find the right person Do not feel the need to do it Do not want to lose the carefree single life age 49
What caused population explosion in Nigeria?
18.5 million
29 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 34.7 35.3 35.5 36.2 37 36.3 39.4 38.5 43.7 44.7 42.9 42 42.9 43.8 Number of people living in extreme poverty in Nigeria (in 1000) 30 of the world’s out-of-school children is from Nigeria. 28 1 in 5 60% 50
of
Nigerian Nigerian children are out of school in 2021 are girls
50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80% Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary School completion rate in Nigeria in 2020, by educational level and gender 32 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100% agriculture industry services 2017 2019 2011 2013 2021 2015 Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria 31 51
The impact of high birth rates
Prevalence of undernourishment and food insecurity in Nigeria between 2004 and 2006 and between 2018 and 2020 33
Prevalence of undernourishment
14.6% 7.1%
Prevalence of undernourishment
21.4% 6.6%
Prevalence of undernourishment
57.7% 36.5%
2004-2006
2018-2020
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12 8 14 10 6 4 2 16 18 20% 2008 2010 2002 2004 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2020 Unemployment rate of Nigeria 36, 37 unemployment rate youth unemployment rate Share of total employment in Nigeria by gender 34, 35 2008 2010 2019 2007 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 30 20 10 0 40 50 60% women men 53
China's One-Child Policy
Population distribution in China 1
Total fertility rate of China 1930—2020 38 1990 1940 1960 1980 2000 1930 1950 2010 1970 2020 4.0 3.0 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 0 6.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100% 65+ years old 15-64 years old 0-14 years old Workforce fertility restrictions period 54
1980 2030 2050 2000 1970 1990 2010 2040 2020 Female infanticide in China and India from 1970—2050 40 1.12 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.16 1.14 1.17 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.18 2016 2011 2013 2015 2017 2010 2012 2018 2014 2019 2020 Sex ratio in the age group 0 to 4 years in China 39 140 100 160 million 120 80 60 40 0 20 China India Others male to female 55
Shidu Parents
Shidu lost only one
means parents whose only child has passed away or is disabled to perform the basic social function and daily living activities due to an accident or other events.
76,000 families in China lose their only child each year, according to an annual report by the Chinese Ministry of Health in 2010. 41
80 parents from all over the country who had lost their only child, for the first time, marched to Beijing to protest the policy and the meager compensation they are given in front of the National Family Planning office, in June 2012. 42
60% of shidu parents suffer from depression. 43
20% of shidu parents have sought psychological treatment of any kind. 43
8.5% receiving professional psychological treatment or grief counseling. 43
30% of shidu parents filed for divorce after losing their child as once the child is gone, the family breaks down. 43
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Unwanted pregnancy
400 million births prevented 41 during the One-Child policy, claimed by China's government
30% bigger in population, without the fertility restriction. 44
336 million abortions 44 since 1971
7 million pregnancies are aborted every year. 44
196 million sterilizations 44 since 1971
2 million men and women sterilized every year. 44
7 million men and women insert intrauterine devices every year. 44
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Designed by Khai Hoan Nguyen
Advised by Professor Todd Linkner
Printed by Blurb.com
Text in Soleil
December 2022
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