counting the chickens before they hatch
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN
Counting the Chickens
Before They Hatch
Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch
Is 2.1 the number of children a woman 'should' have?
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN
This book is dedicated to anyone who is curious about future changes in population.
Contents 14 Demographic Transition Model 34 Abortion in the United States 42 South Korea & Nigeria 26 Fertility Rate & Replacement Rate 38 World Literacy & Education 52 China's One-Child Policy 08 World Population Overview 28 World Contraceptive Use 40 World Migration
1960 2040 1980 2060 2000 2080 2020 2100 1950 2030 1970 2050 1990 2070 2010 2090 World Population as of the end of 2021 1 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 billion Asia Europe North American South American Oceania 2021 7.87 billions Africa 10 11
half the world’s population lives in seven countries
2
Nigeria
United States
India Indonesia
12 13
Brazil China Pakistan
Death rates
14.9 million
range 13.3 million to 16.6 million is the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021.3
81%
the global death toll was higher for men than for women.3
of the 14.9 million excess deaths are accounted by middle-income countries.3
Birth rates
57%
139,821,086
babies were born in 2021, compared with 98 million in 1950.4
367,000 average number of births every day 4
4.86 1950
2.32 2021
50 years ago the average woman had five children, since then the number has halved. 4
1950 2021
14 15
1960 1980 2000 40 50 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 45 55 35 25 5 15 Demographic transition model 7,8,9 Past 16 17 Crude birth rates 5 Crude death rates 6 2040 2060 2080 2100 2030 2050 2070 2090 Projected 40 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 10 8 6 0 4 12 2 birth rate death rate natual increase ? ? total population in billion 2020 stage one stage two stage three stage four stage five unknown unknown
Stage One
The Pre-Industrial Stage
Rapidly expansive population pyramid
Men Women
high birth rate
high death rate
high child mortality rate
low average life expectancy
stable/slow natural increase
No country as a whole at present retains the characteristics of stage one. It applies only to the most remote societies on earth such as the isolated tribes in Amazon with little or no contact with the outside world.
All human populations are believed to have had this stage until the late 18th century, when many countries in Western Europe were able to cross this stage.
Death rates increase due to subsistence agriculture diseases poor sanitation
In result, birth rates increase to compensate for the mortality rate yet they often die at young ages
18 19
Stage Two
The Industrial Revolution
Expansive population pyramid
high birth rate
death rate falls rapidly
high child mortality rate
average life expectancy
rapidly natural increase
Men Women
A number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia) are currently in stage two. The population of of Stage two countries is rising and their doubling time is short. However, the population will not continue to go up at the same rate.
Death rates decrease due to improvements in
farming technology public health system sanitation
Birth rates remain high due to ?
cultural lag high demand in farm labor
20 21
Stage Three
Post-Industrial Revolution
Slow growth population pyramid
Birth rates decrease due to
birth rate falls
death rate falls more slowly
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase slows down
Men Women
Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in stage three, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India.
South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage three.
availability of contraception
industrialisation
improvement in education
reduce in child labor
22 23
Stage Four
Stabilization
Stationary population pyramid
Men Women
low birth rate
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase falls then stablizes
Some of the industrialized countries such as Canada, Argentina, United States, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius are in the late stage four.
Birth rates decrease due to desire for smaller family women prioritize careers
industrialisation continues $
limited resources
24 25
Stage Five
Declining population
Constrictive population pyramid
Men Women
birth rate possibly falling further
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase has little change
This stage is a bit more uncertain. At this stage, some demographers say that fertility rates will experience shifts to either above or below replacement levels. While some experts argue that fertility levels will increase, others state the opposite.
Stationary population pyramid
Men Women
low birth rate
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase falls then stablizes
This depends on the society, too — while populations in South Korea, Japan, China, Australia and most of Eastern Europe are expected to fall due to lower birth rates, those in the U.S., India, and Mexico are expected to increase.
26 27
Replacement level fertility
the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. 4 East
2.1
2.31 the world’s current average live births per woman per lifetime in 2022, down from 4.7 in 1950. 4
Asia 1.2 European Union 1.5 North America 1.8 Latin America & the Caribbean 1.9 Oceania 2.1
as of July 2022 10
Korea
Andorra
Marino
Ukraine 1
Singapore
& Herzegovina
Fertility rates by regions
South
0.8
San
Taiwan
1.1 Malta
Bosnia
28 29
Countries with lowest fertility rates 10 1.2 China Spain
South & Southeast Asia 2.2 Western Asia 2.5 Northern Africa 2.8 Central Asia 3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6
10
Central African R. 6 DR Congo Chad 6.2 6.7 Niger Angola 5.3 Mauritania 5.2 Burundi Nigeria 5.1
Fertility rate
Countries with highest fertility rates
Mali
592 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 1950. 1
972 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 2021.
30 31
1950 2021
World Contraceptive Use
Modern methods of contraception include female and male sterilization, the intra-uterine device (IUD), the implant, injectables, oral contraceptive pills, male and female condoms, vaginal barrier methods (including the diaphragm, cervical cap and xemergency contraception and other modern methods not reported separately (e.g., the contraceptive patch or vaginal ring).
All women Married or in union women
Contraceptive prevalence rate, women aged 15-49 1 More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Any method Modern method 58 70 47 62 32 42 51 62 43 56 29 34
1 More developed regions 79% Less developed regions
Least developed regions
32 33
Proportion of demand satisfied with modern methods
77%
60%
Ukraine
Contraception use in Europe11
Bulgaria
78.7
68.1
63.8
59.7
59.3 Croatia
59.3
Slovenia 56.6 Kosovo 55.7 Turkey 52.8 North Macedonia 52.5 Greece 47.9
45.7 Montenegro
44.3 96.4 Belgium 66 Spain 90.1 France 87 Netherlands 81.5 Luxembourg Germany 75.1
62.2
Portugal
Albania
Malta
Serbia
Italy
57
Andora
Bosnia-Herzegovia
Austria
59.8
56.7
Romania 54.4
Czechia 50.8
Slovakia 48.1
Hungary44.9 Russia 42.8
Poland 35.1
Armenia 53.9 Azerbaijan 54.4 Georgia 52.9
Cyprus 51.4
Belarus 44.4 UnitedKingdom 87.6
Sweden 81.5
Estonia 74.7 Norway 71.4
Iceland 71.3
Ireland 65
Finland 63.3
Eastern Europe Eastern Europe & South Caucasus Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
65.8
58.3
34 35
Denmark 59.6
Moldova
58.5 Latvia 50.1 Lithuania
Switzerland
Abortion in the United States
Share of U.S. adults who say abortion should be___ in 2022 12 36 2 19 6 27 8 2 Legal in all cases, no exceptions Legal in all cases, with exceptions Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases, with exceptions Illegal in all cases, no exceptions No answer 37% 61% Abortion should be___if pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health. Opinions among the 37% of U.S. adults who say abortion should be illegal 12 Net illegal Net legal 27% 27% 46% Depends Illegal Legal Abortion should be___if the pregnancy is the result of rape. 27% 36% 37% Depends Illegal Legal 36 37 50 55 45 40 35 2014 2006 2010 2012 2016 2008 2018 2004 2020 2022 Share of pro-choice or pro-life in the United States from 2003-2022 13 pro-choice pro-life Should abortion at this stage of pregnancy be___? 12 6th week 14th week 24th week 19 7 12 8 25 6 19 19 7 19 8 15 6 22 19 7 34 8 3 6 18
14 9% Neither 8% Somewhat disapprove 43% Strongly disapprove 25% Strongly approve 9% Somewhat approve 6% Not sure 38 39
Roe v. Wade Overturn & Public Opinion
6.3% Latin America & the Caribbean 92.92% male 90.78% female Global youth literacy rate 2020 16 World Literacy & Education Primary 99 90 83 Lower Secondary 98 82 66 Upper Secondary 95 63 44 More developed regions Least developed regions Less developed regions Total net enrollment rate globally in 2021 17
illiteracy rate among adults (over 15-year-old) in 2019 15 1.5% 1.5% Europe 34.7% Sub-Saharan Africa 20.6% Arab States 27.1% South Asia 4.2% East Asia & the Pacific Central Asia 40 41
The
18 Origins India Mexico Russia Syrian Arab Republic Bangladesh Afghanistan China Ukraine Pakistan Philippines United States of America Saudi Arabia Turkey UAE Ukraine India Russia Pakistan Kazakhstan Iran Germany A B C D E F G H I J K L M N Destinations C Lebanon F South Korea I Belarus L Kuwait A Canada D Australia G Japan J United Kingdom M Poland B Oman E Uzbekistan H Jordan K Malaysia N Guatemala 42 43
World Migration The Missing Factor
1960 1980 1965 1970 1975 1985 6 7 5 1 2 4 3
1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 44 45
South Korea, Nigeria & their fertility rates1
Why is South Korea’s birth rate so low?
During Covid-19 period, more women were found to have experienced career interuptions for child cares. 21
of men experienced
of women experienced
129 mins 7 mins
On average, a woman devoted 7 times more a day on upaid work. 22
a woman earns 20 a man earns share
share
59.7% 41%
Who can own a house in South Korea? 23 59.3% 10.55% 63.56% 40.19% 68% 70.31% 60.28% < 30 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 > 80 age share 1000 w
w 46 47
646
The impact of low birth rates
Average number of students per teacher at universities in South Korea from 1980 to 2021 24 31 29 27 25 30 28 26 24 23 22 2010 1985 1995 2005 2015 1980 1990 2020 2000 74% 66 58 70 62 54 50 46 2018 2010 2014 2016 2020 2008 2012 Share of people feeling stressed in South Korea from 2008 to 2020, by gender 25 students 48 49 20 22 2015 1995 2005 2010 2020 1990 2000 Median age at first marriage in South Korea from 1900 to 2021 27 32 30 28 26 24 34 Reasons why people did not get married in South Korea in 2022, by gender 26 50 30 60% 40 20 10 0 Cannot financially afford it Did not find the right person Do not feel the need to do it Do not want to lose the carefree single life age
What caused population explosion in Nigeria?
of 18.5 million Nigerian Nigerian children are out of school in 2021 are girls 29 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 34.7 35.3 35.5 36.2 37 36.3 39.4 38.5 43.7 44.7 42.9 42 42.9 43.8 Number of people living in extreme poverty in Nigeria (in 1000) 30 of the world’s out-of-school children is from Nigeria. 28 1 in 5 60% 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80% Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary School completion rate in Nigeria in 2020, by educational level and gender 32 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100% agriculture industry services 2017 2019 2011 2013 2021 2015 Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria 31 50 51
The impact of high birth rates
Prevalence of undernourishment and food insecurity in Nigeria between 2004 and 2006 and between 2018 and 2020 33
of undernourishment
of undernourishment Prevalence of undernourishment 2004-2006 2018-2020
14.6% 7.1% 21.4% 6.6% 57.7% 36.5% Prevalence
Prevalence
12 8 14 10 6 4 2 16 18 20% 2008 2010 2002 2004 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2020 Unemployment rate of Nigeria 36, 37 unemployment rate youth unemployment rate Share of total employment in Nigeria by gender 34, 35 2008 2010 2019 2007 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 30 20 10 0 40 50 60% women men 52 53
China's One-Child Policy
Population distribution in China
1
Total fertility rate of China 1930—2020 38 1990 1940 1960 1980 2000 1930 1950 2010 1970 2020 4.0 3.0 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 0 6.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100% 65+ years old 15-64 years old 0-14 years old Workforce fertility restrictions period 1980 2030 2050 2000 1970 1990 2010 2040 2020 Female infanticide in China and India from 1970—2050 40 1.12 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.16 1.14 1.17 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.18 2016 2011 2013 2015 2017 2010 2012 2018 2014 2019 2020 Sex ratio in the age group 0 to 4 years in China 39 140 100 160 million 120 80 60 40 0 20 China India Others male to female 54 55
Shidu Parents
Unwanted pregnancy
Shidu lost only one
means parents whose only child has passed away or is disabled to perform the basic social function and daily living activities due to an accident or other events.
400 million births prevented 41 during the One-Child policy, claimed by China's government
30% bigger in population, without the fertility restriction. 44
76,000 families in China lose their only child each year, according to an annual report by the Chinese Ministry of Health in 2010. 41
80 parents from all over the country who had lost their only child, for the first time, marched to Beijing to protest the policy and the meager compensation they are given in front of the National Family Planning office, in June 2012. 42
60% of shidu parents suffer from depression. 43
20% of shidu parents have sought psychological treatment of any kind. 43
8.5% receiving professional psychological treatment or grief counseling. 43
336 million abortions 44 since 1971
7 million pregnancies are aborted every year. 44
30% of shidu parents filed for divorce after losing their child as once the child is gone, the family breaks down. 43
196 million sterilizations 44 since 1971
2 million men and women sterilized every year. 44
7 million men and women insert intrauterine devices every year. 44
56 57
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1. “14.9 Million
Associated
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60 61
Printed by Blurb.com Text in Soleil December 2022
Designed by Khai Hoan Nguyen
Advised by Professor Todd Linkner