counting the chickens before they hatch
the Chickens Before They Hatch
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN Counting
Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch
Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch
Is 2.1 the number of children a woman 'should' have?
KHAI HOAN NGUYEN
This book is dedicated to anyone who is curious about future changes in population.
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Contents
Demographic Transition Model
Fertility Rate & Replacement Rate 08 World Population Overview
26
28 World Contraceptive Use
40 World Migration
34 Abortion in the United States
42 South Korea & Nigeria
38 World Literacy & Education
52 China's One-Child Policy
1960 2040 1980 2000 2020 1950 2030 1970 1990 2010
as of the end of 2021 1 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 billion 8
World Population
2021 7.87 billions
2060 2080 2100 2050 2070 2090 Asia Europe North American South American Oceania
Africa 9
half the world’s population
10
lives in seven countries
United States
2
Nigeria
India
Indonesia
Brazil
China
11
Pakistan
Death rates
14.9 million
range 13.3 million to 16.6 million is the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021.3
81%
the global death toll was higher for men than for women.3
of the 14.9 million excess deaths are accounted by middle-income countries.3
57%
12
Birth rates
139,821,086 babies were born in 2021, compared with 98 million in 1950.4
2021
367,000 average number of births every day 4
4.86 1950
2.32 2021
50 years ago the average woman had five children, since then the number has halved. 4
13
1950
Past
1960 1980 2000 40 50 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 45 55 35 25 5 15 Demographic transition model 7,8,9
14 2020
2020 15 Crude birth rates 5 Crude death rates 6 2040 2060 2080 2100 2030 2050 2070 2090 Projected 40 30 20 0 10 crude birth/death rates per 1000 10 8 6 0 4 12 2 birth rate death rate natual increase ? ? total population in billion stage one stage two stage three stage four stage five unknown unknown
Stage One The Pre-Industrial Stage
Rapidly expansive population pyramid
Men
Women
high birth rate
high death rate
high child mortality rate
low average life expectancy
stable/slow natural increase
No country as a whole at present retains the characteristics of stage one. It applies only to the most remote societies on earth such as the isolated tribes in Amazon with little or no contact with the outside world.
All human populations are believed to have had this stage until the late 18th century, when many countries in Western Europe were able to cross this stage.
16
Death rates increase due to subsistence agriculture diseases poor sanitation
In result, birth rates increase to compensate for the mortality rate yet they often die at young ages
17
Stage Two The Industrial Revolution
Expansive population pyramid
Men
Women
high birth rate
death rate falls rapidly high child mortality rate
average life expectancy
rapidly natural increase
A number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia) are currently in stage two. The population of of Stage two countries is rising and their doubling time is short. However, the population will not continue to go up at the same rate.
18
Death rates decrease due to improvements in
farming technology
Birth rates remain high due to ?
public health system sanitation
cultural lag
high demand in farm labor
19
Stage Three Post-Industrial Revolution
Slow growth population pyramid
birth rate falls
death rate falls more slowly
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase slows down
Men
Women
Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in stage three, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India.
South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage three.
20
Birth rates decrease due to
availability of contraception
industrialisation
improvement in education
reduce in child labor
21
Stage Four Stabilization
Stationary population pyramid
Men
Women
low birth rate
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase falls then stablizes
Some of the industrialized countries such as Canada, Argentina, United States, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius are in the late stage four.
22
Birth rates decrease due to
desire for smaller family
women prioritize careers
industrialisation continues
$
limited resources
23
Stage Five Declining population
Constrictive population pyramid
Men
Women
birth rate possibly falling further
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase has little change
This stage is a bit more uncertain. At this stage, some demographers say that fertility rates will experience shifts to either above or below replacement levels. While some experts argue that fertility levels will increase, others state the opposite.
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Stationary population pyramid
Men
Women
low birth rate
low death rate
low child mortality rate
high life expectancy
natural increase falls then stablizes
This depends on the society, too — while populations in South Korea, Japan, China, Australia and most of Eastern Europe are expected to fall due to lower birth rates, those in the U.S., India, and Mexico are expected to increase.
25
the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. 4
Replacement level fertility 2.1
East Asia 1.2 European Union 1.5 North America 1.8 Latin America & the Caribbean 1.9 Oceania 2.1 Fertility rates by regions as of July 2022 10 South Korea 0.8 Andorra San Marino Taiwan Ukraine 1 1.1 Malta Singapore Bosnia & Herzegovina Countries with lowest fertility rates 10 1.2 China Spain 26
Fertility rate
2.31 the world’s current average live births per woman per lifetime in 2022, down from 4.7 in 1950. 4
27
South & Southeast Asia 2.2 Western Asia 2.5 Northern Africa 2.8 Central Asia 3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6 Countries with highest fertility rates 10 Mali Central African R. 6 DR Congo Chad 6.2 6.7 Niger Angola 5.3 Mauritania 5.2 Burundi Nigeria 5.1
592 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 1950. 1
28 1950
972 million
women in the reproductive age range (15-49 years) were using some form of contraception in 2021. 1
29
2021
World Contraceptive Use
Modern methods of contraception include female and male sterilization, the intra-uterine device (IUD), the implant, injectables, oral contraceptive pills, male and female condoms, vaginal barrier methods (including the diaphragm, cervical cap and xemergency contraception and other modern methods not reported separately (e.g., the contraceptive patch or vaginal ring).
women
All
Married or in union women
Contraceptive prevalence rate, women aged 15-49 1 More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Any method Modern method 58 70 47 62 32 42 51 62 43 56 29 34 30
Proportion of demand satisfied with modern methods 1
79%
More developed regions
77%
Less developed regions
60%
Least developed regions
31
96.4 Belgium
90.1 France
87 Netherlands
81.5 Luxembourg Germany
75.1 Austria
62.2
Bosnia-Herzegovia 44.3
45.7 Montenegro
47.9 Andora
52.5 Greece
52.8 North Macedonia
55.7 Turkey
56.6 Kosovo
57 Slovenia
Italy
59.3
59.3 Croatia
59.7 Serbia
63.8 Malta
66 Spain
68.1 Albania
78.7 Portugal
Lithuania 58.3 Switzerland 32
50.1
Moldova 65.8 58.5 Latvia
Ukraine
Contraception use in Europe11
59.8 Bulgaria 56.7 Romania
54.4 Czechia 50.8
Slovakia
48.1 Hungary44.9 Russia
42.8 Poland 35.1
Azerbaijan 54.4
Armenia 53.9
Georgia 52.9
Cyprus 51.4
Belarus 44.4
Finland 63.3
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe
& South Caucasus
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Iceland 71.3
Norway 71.4
Estonia
UnitedKingdom
87.6 Sweden 81.5
74.7
Ireland 65
Denmark 59.6
33
Abortion in the United States
Moldova 65.8 58.5 Latvia
Share of U.S. adults who say abortion should be___ in 2022 12 36 2 19 6 27 8 2 Legal
exceptions
in all cases, no
Legal in all cases, with exceptions Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases
37% 61% Abortion should be___if pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health. Opinions among the 37% of U.S. adults who say abortion should be illegal 12 Net illegal Net legal 27% 27% 46% Depends Illegal Legal Abortion should be___if the pregnancy is the result of rape. 27% 36% 37% Depends Illegal Legal 34
Illegal in all cases, with exceptions Illegal in all cases, no exceptions No answer
35 50 55 45 40 35 2014 2006 2010 2012 2016 2008 2018 2004 2020 2022 Share of pro-choice or pro-life in the United States from 2003-2022 13 pro-choice pro-life Should abortion at this stage of pregnancy be___? 12 6th week 14th week 24th week 19 7 12 8 25 6 19 19 7 19 8 15 6 22 19 7 34 8 3 6 18
Roe v. Wade Overturn & Public Opinion
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Neither
43%
8%
9%
14
36
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Not sure
9%
25%
6%
37
6.3% Latin America & the Caribbean 92.92% male 90.78% female Global youth literacy rate 2020 16
38
World Literacy & Education
The illiteracy rate among adults (over 15-year-old) in 2019
1.5% Europe
20.6% Arab States
34.7% Sub-Saharan Africa
Total
More developed regions
Least developed regions
Less developed regions
1.5%
Central Asia
27.1% South Asia
4.2% East Asia & the Pacific
Primary 99 90 83 Lower Secondary 98 82 66 Upper Secondary 95 63 44
enrollment rate globally in 2021 17
net
15
39
World Migration
The Missing Factor
Origins
18
India
Mexico
Russia
United States of America
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
UAE
40
Destinations
Syrian Arab Republic Bangladesh Afghanistan
China Ukraine
Pakistan Philippines
Pakistan Kazakhstan Iran Germany A B C D E F G H I J K L M N C Lebanon F South Korea I Belarus L Kuwait A Canada D Australia G Japan J United Kingdom M Poland B Oman E Uzbekistan H Jordan K Malaysia N Guatemala 41
Ukraine India Russia
South Korea, Nigeria &
1960 1980 1965 1970 1975 1985 6 7 5 1 2 4 3
fertility rates1 1990 42
their
1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 43
Why is South Korea’s birth rate so low?
During Covid-19 period, more women were found to have experienced career interuptions for child cares.
On average, a woman devoted 7 times more a day on upaid work.
woman earns 20 a man earns
a
share of men experienced share of women experienced
21 59.7% 41%
7 mins
129 mins
22
646
44
1000 w
w
can own a house in South Korea? 23 59.3% 10.55% 63.56% 40.19% 68% 70.31% 60.28%
Who
40-49
< 30 30-39
50-59 60-69 70-79
age share 45
> 80
The impact of low birth rates
Average number of students per teacher at universities in South Korea from 1980 to 2021 24 31 29 27 25 30 28 26 24 23 22 2010 1985 1995 2005 2015 1980 1990 2020 2000 74% 66 58 70 62 54 50 46 2018 2010 2014 2016 2020 2008 2012 Share of people feeling stressed in South Korea from 2008 to 2020, by gender 25 students 46
47 20 22 2015 1995 2005 2010 2020 1990 2000 Median age at first marriage in South Korea from 1900 to 2021 27 32 30 28 26 24 34 Reasons why people did not get married in South Korea in 2022, by gender 26 50 30 60% 40 20 10 0 Cannot financially afford it Did not find the right person Do not feel the need to do it Do not want to lose the carefree single life age
What caused population explosion in Nigeria?
of the world’s out-of-school children is from Nigeria. 28
60%
of 18.5 million Nigerian Nigerian children are out of school in 2021 are girls 29
Number of people living in extreme poverty in Nigeria (in 1000) 30
2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 34.7 35.3 35.5 36.2 37 36.3 39.4 38.5 43.7 44.7 42.9 42 42.9 43.8
1 in 5 48
50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80% Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary School completion rate in Nigeria in 2020, by educational level and gender 32 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100% agriculture industry services 2017 2019 2011 2013 2021 2015 Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria 31 49
The impact of high birth rates
Prevalence of undernourishment and food insecurity in Nigeria between 2004 and 2006 and between 2018 and 2020 33
Prevalence of undernourishment
Prevalence of undernourishment
Prevalence of undernourishment
2004-2006
2018-2020
14.6% 7.1% 21.4% 6.6% 57.7% 36.5%
50
12 8 14 10 6 4 2 16 18 20% 2008 2010 2002 2004 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2020 Unemployment rate of Nigeria 36, 37 unemployment rate youth unemployment rate Share of total employment in Nigeria by gender 34, 35 2008 2010 2019 2007 2012 2006 2014 2016 2018 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 30 20 10 0 40 50 60% women men 51
China's One-Child Policy
0-14 years old
Population distribution in China 1
Total fertility rate of China 1930—2020 38 1990 1940 1960 1980 2000 1930 1950 2010 1970 2020 4.0 3.0 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 0 6.5 5.5 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1990 2000 2020 2010 1995 2005 2015 50 30 60 40 20 10 0 70 80 90 100%
years old
65+
15-64 years old
Workforce fertility restrictions period 52
1980 2030 2050 2000 1970 1990 2010 2040 2020 Female infanticide in China and India from 1970—2050 40 1.12 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.16 1.14 1.17 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.18 2016 2011 2013 2015 2017 2010 2012 2018 2014 2019 2020 Sex ratio in the age group 0 to 4 years in China 39 140 100 160 million 120 80 60 40 0 20 China India Others male to female 53
Shidu Parents
Shidu lost only one
means parents whose only child has passed away or is disabled to perform the basic social function and daily living activities due to an accident or other events.
76,000 families in China lose their only child each year, according to an annual report by the Chinese Ministry of Health in 2010. 41
80 parents from all over the country who had lost their only child, for the first time, marched to Beijing to protest the policy and the meager compensation they are given in front of the National Family Planning office, in June 2012. 42
60% of shidu parents suffer from depression. 43
20% of shidu parents have sought psychological treatment of any kind. 43
8.5% receiving professional psychological treatment or grief counseling. 43
30% of shidu parents filed for divorce after losing their child as once the child is gone, the family breaks down. 43
54
Unwanted pregnancy
400 million births prevented 41 during the One-Child policy, claimed by China's government
30% bigger in population, without the fertility restriction. 44
336 million abortions 44 since 1971
7 million pregnancies are aborted every year. 44
196 million sterilizations 44 since 1971
2 million men and women sterilized every year. 44
7 million men and women insert intrauterine devices every year. 44
55
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Designed by Khai Hoan Nguyen
Advised by Professor Todd Linkner
Printed by Blurb.com
Text in Soleil
December 2022
