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U.S. Forecast October 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida


Meet Interim Dean fOARD f. jONES

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F ) The University of Central F lorida is

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o

ser ving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding

populations, technological corridors,

and international partners. The mission

of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide

services that enhance the intellectual,

cultural, environmental, and economic

development of the metropolitan region, address national and international

issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r at i o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n

and goals in providing intellectual

leadership through research, teaching, and ser vice. The college is striving

to enhance graduate programs, while

maintaining the strong undergraduate

base. The college delivers research and

quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral,

and executive levels to citizens of the

state of F lorida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

I don’t know about you, but I am already growing tired of political debates. Just about every time I turn on the television, I see candidates bickering amongst each other. And just think….the presidential election is still more than a year away! It seems that there is one thing however, that all the candidates do agree upon – something needs to be done to improve our economy and create more jobs. Americans are frustrated and are growing impatient. Over the next 12 months, we will hear politicians from both parties promise to fix things and make improvements. Let’s hope one of them will come up with a good plan. Until then, as our nation continues to recover, you can stay updated by reading these economic forecasts produced by Dr. Sean Snaith and the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His research includes the latest predictions concerning employment rates, the housing market and more. Enjoy the rest of your fall season, and I look forward to addressing you again next quarter. Sincerely,

Foard F. Jones Interim Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Fo r eca s t fo r t h e N ati o n Forecast 2011 - 2014 October 2011 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


Hi g h l i g h t s o f t h e 3 Q 2 0 1 1 U . S . F OR E C A ST In This Issue of the U.S. Forecast: • Forecast gone Wilde. Oscar Wilde. • Is recent economic data painting a Picture of a Dorian Gray recovery? • The Importance of Being Earnest: The Fed’s latest “twist” on monetary policy. • Twist and doubt. Unfortunately, markets have little faith in the Fed’s latest effort to jumpstart the economy and rightly so.

H I GHL I GHTS

• Oil prices have receded in the 3rd quarter. This will have a soothing effect on consumers’ rattled nerves and battered budgets. • Consumers still grieve the loss of home equity. Home equity remains essentially at the same levels seen at the nadir of the financial crisis. This burden of lost wealth will keep consumer spending growth subdued through 2014. • We need “Pulp Fiction” fiscal policy, but all we are likely to get is a strong cup of coffee. • The U.S. economy lost impetus in the first half of 2011. Real GDP growth should accelerate to 2.6% in the 3rd quarter but slip to 1.0% growth in the 4th quarter. • GDP growth in 2012 should average 1.5% and accelerate to 2.5% in 2013 and then to 3.7% in 2014. • Economists’ nerves are more frayed and the 3rd quarter’s Anxious Index has risen to 21%. Higher GDP growth in the 3rd quarter should allay their fears of a double-dip recession. • Payroll employment growth remains sluggish. Persistent policy uncertainty is a black cloud over the private sector and firms have been slow to hire new workers. Consequently, payrolls will only expand 0.7% in 2012. Post-election growth doubles in 2013 to 1.4% and surges again to 2.1% in 2014. • The fates of the housing and labor markets remain entwined. A labor market recovery will slow foreclosures and grow the pool of potential buyers. Home prices should rebound when the labor market strengthens in 2013 and 2014. • Unemployment rates have ticked up in recent months. However, 2011 should end with an unacceptable unemployment rate at 9.2%. Unemployment rates will drift to 9.3% in 2012 before falling ever so slowly to 7.8% by the end of 2014.


U . S . F o r eca s t

Forecast Gone (Oscar) Wilde “Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.” In reference to the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory and Obama health care reform acts?

“The secret of life is to appreciate the pleasure of being terribly, terribly deceived.” In reference to the credit agencies’ ratings of mortgage backed securities as being AAA?

“The very essence of love is uncertainty.” In reference to the love of uncertainty-inducing policies in Washington, DC?

“The optimist sees the donut, the pessimist sees the hole.”

In reference to the current recovery/double-dip recession debate?

Oscar Wilde 1854 – 1900

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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U . S . F o r eca s t

Is Recent Economic Data Revealing a Picture of A Dorian Gray Recovery? Are the excesses, sins, financial transgressions and policy blunders of the Great Recession appearing on the visage of the economy? The only novel written by Irish writer and poet Oscar Wilde and published in 1890 is The Picture of Dorian Gray. This gothic classic is the tale of an artist, Basil Hallward, who paints a portrait of a handsome young man named Dorian Gray. Basil reluctantly introduces Dorian to Lord Henry, a corrupting influence who convinces Dorian that beauty and a hedonistic lifestyle are the only worthwhile things to pursue in life. Dorian, convinced that Lord Henry is right, fears the transience of his beauty and that his portrait will only serve to remind him of his lost youth and good looks. Dorian pledges his soul so that the portrait, rather than he, would bear the burden of passing time and Dorian Gray’s subsequent litany of depravities, crimes and self-indulgences. His wish is granted and the picture begins to reflect the deplorable and immoral life of Dorian Gray. It, instead of Dorian, reflects the ugliness of the life that he is leading and the picture grows more and more hideous. Like any Faustian tale, the story does not have a happy ending. The artist, who painted the picture, in an attempt to sway Dorian from the lifestyle he is leading, forces him to look at the “accursed thing leering at us…” Dorian, in a fit of rage, stabs and kills Basil Hallward. Near the end of the novel Dorian resigns himself to be good and live a pure life. His epiphany would surely show up in the portrait, he thought. He quietly went to the room where the portrait was kept and drew back the purple covering from the painting. But alas, the portrait had become not less, but more repugnant. The face now bore the “look of cunning” and “the mouth the curved wrinkle of the hypocrite.” Dorian decided to eliminate the last witness to his horrible deeds and destroy the picture. He then plunges the knife he used to kill Basil into the portrait, a horrible cry and loud crash were heard from the room, and awakened Dorian’s startled servants. The novel ends with the following passage: “When they entered, they found hanging upon the wall a splendid portrait of their master as they had last 6

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

seen him in all the wonder of his exquisite youth and beauty. Lying on the floor was a dead man, in evening dress, with a knife in his heart. He was withered, wrinkled, and loathsome of visage. It was not till they had examined the rings that they recognized who it was.” Is this recovery nothing more than an economic version of the Picture of Dorian Gray? Is the withered consumer confidence, sluggish economic growth, and repugnant labor market just a reflection of the economic sins committed, copious financial transgressions and policy missteps leading into and following the Great Recession? Economic growth thus far in 2011 has been paltry. In the first quarter, real GDP growth was just 0.4% and it climbed slightly to 1.3% in the fourth quarter. Surging energy prices are in part to blame, but the aftermath of the excesses of the housing bubble continue to haunt the economy as the lost wealth in the form of home equity (discussed below) weighs down on consumer spending growth and the economy as a whole. The fallout of the financial crisis is still with us as well, with $1.5 trillion in wealth yet to be recovered, and more importantly the 2300-page Dodd Frank financial regulatory reform bill. This far-reaching legislation is set to saddle the financial sector with potentially asphyxiating new regulations and regulators. What is not clear is how the suffocation will come. Plastic bag over the head of financial firms, a noose around their necks, hands over their mouths and noses? Financial firms don’t know how their regulatory assailant will attack because there is so much leeway in the implementation of the regulations. How do they prepare for a set of rules for which the letter of law is unknown and the spirit in which they will be implemented is uncertain? This is not the type of environment we should have created for an economy where the flow of credit has been far too weak to support strong economic growth. President Obama’s health care reform act just piles on the uncertainty.


U . S . F o r eca s t

Table 1. U.S. Flow of Funds Household Data (Trillions of dollars) 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009Q1*

2011Q2

Total Assets

71.3

77.7

78.6

65.5

62.8

72.3

Financial Assets

42.9

48.2

50.6

41.2

39.6

49.1

Home Equity

13.2

12.9

10.3

7.0

6.1

6.2

Net Worth

59.1

64.3

64.3

51.5

48.7

58.5

* = Bottom of Financial Crisis

A recent (October 2011) Small Business Outlook Survey by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce speaks clearly about what small businesses wants from the federal government. 80% want Washington to “get out of the way” versus 13% who want government to “offer a helping hand.” In another question 86% want “more certainty” versus 7% who want “more assistance.”1 Like Dorian Gray, the economic recovery in the United States cannot escape its past. The legacy of the financial, economic and policy sins that have been committed continue to haunt it, despite the recession having ending 28 months ago. The economic data as of recent months has revealed a recovery that is “withered, wrinkled, and loathsome of visage.” Unlike Dorian Gray, however, the recovery is not dead. Well, at least not yet.

Wealth Watching Because of the debt ceiling showdown in Washington, D.C. and the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. government debt, there has been a resurgence of financial market volatility that was reminiscent of the stomach churning days of the financial crisis in 2008-2009. This decline in stock market values hit households where it hurts, the still festering wound caused by the trillions of dollars of wealth gouged from the balance sheets of households in the U.S. Table 1 displays data from the latest issuance of the Flow of Funds report. As you can see, the level 1 U.S. Chamber of Commerce quarterly Small Business Outlook Survey: http://www.uschambersmallbusinessnation.com/commu nity/quarterly-survey-2

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

of home equity is only $6.2 trillion two years after falling to this level at the low point of the financial crisis. Home ownership is one of the main sources of wealth for families in the United States, and the rapid recovery of much of the value of financial assets has simply not transpired in the housing market. In the face of this lost wealth and the return of large swings in the stock market, consumers are not only continuing the process of repairing the damage via higher saving rates, but they have grown more pessimistic as well. Consumer confidence has plunged as these events have unfolded, taking wind from the tattered sails of the largest source of economic activity in the country. Lost wealth is proving to be a stubborn and longlasting legacy of the financial and housing crises. The impact of its absence will weigh on the shoulders of consumers, like the universe on the shoulders of Atlas.

The Importance of Being Earnest: The Fed’s New “Twist” on Monetary Policy The Fed announced after the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), that it would undertake a new round of asset purchases. This effort would focus on purchases of Treasury Bonds in markets with a longer maturity than previous rounds of quantitative easing along with selling shorterterm bonds. This new policy was summarized in the September 21, 2011 statement released following the FOMC meeting: The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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U . S . F o r eca s t

maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longerterm interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

Why? Simply put, the problem in the U.S. economy most certainly is not that interest rates – short or long termare too high. The dilemma is that credit flows are insufficient to support a robust expansion. There is not a problem with the price of credit but rather with the quantity of it and it is unclear if operation twist will have any effect on the availability of credit.

This new policy effort has been dubbed “Operation Twist.” No, it has nothing to do with Charles Dickens or Chubby Checker for that matter, but alludes to the anticipated impact on the term structure of interest rates. This policy of selling short-term bonds and pushing down their prices (and raising their yields) and buying longer term bonds thus pushing up their prices (and pushing down their yields) would have the effect of twisting the yield curve - a graph depicting the yields on government bonds of different maturities. The Fed action would simultaneously push down the long end of the yield curve while pulling up the short end—thus, the twist. The purpose of doing so is to make long-term interest rates lower and therefore the cost of borrowing would decline as well. Sounds great, right? Apparently, markets did not think so. Perhaps Wall Street was expecting Chairman Bernanke to emerge from the FOMC meeting with two stone tablets detailing the solution to our long-suffering economy. The stock market sunk as the Fed’s twist plan was revealed. I guess “twist and shout” has been replaced with “twist and doubt.” The market’s skepticism, unfortunately, is warranted.

The most recent release (3rd quarter of 2011) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suggests that the 32 forecasters surveyed for the publication are nearly 21% convinced that a decline in real GDP will occur in the 4th quarter of this year. The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken, as well as the probability of a decline in each of the following four quarters. The anxious index (a term coined by The New York Times reporter David Leonhardt) is the probability of a decline in a real GDP in the quarter after a survey is taken. In the survey taken in the 3rd quarter of 2011, the index

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U.S. Forecast | October 2011

Anxious Index Worries on the rise

Figure 1.


U . S . F o r eca s t

stands at 20.92%, which means that forecasters believe there is a 20.92% chance that real GDP will decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from last quarter’s anxious index of 8.47%. This value of the anxious index is the highest since the 3rd quarter of 2009, the quarter following the low point of the recession. The forecasters also report just a 17.20% chance that we are currently (as of the 3rd quarter of 2011) in a recession. According to the panel, the probability that we will fall back in to recession is averaging around 20.1% through the end of the third quarter of 2012, which implies the possibility of a recession in the near term has increased significantly in the minds of these forecasters from last quarter. The sharp rise in anxiety over the future of this economic recovery comes in the wake of the weak economic data, the debt ceiling showdown, the downgrade in the rating of U.S. government debt by S&P and an unwelcome return of volatility in financial markets. Figure 1 plots the historical values of the anxious index and gray bars indicate periods of recession. The current levels of the anxious index and its sharp decline from the start of 2009 reflect the end of the recession. The current level of the anxious index is elevated but is consistent with previous recoveries in the U.S. economy, particularly during the 1980’s where waves of anxiety punctuated the economic growth during the decade.

GDP Outlook The pace of economic recovery slowed significantly in the first half of 2011. First quarter real GDP growth decelerated to just 0.4% from the 2.3% rate of expansion in the 4th quarter of 2010. The 2nd quarter was an improvement over the first, albeit nothing to celebrate. By comparison, the first two quarters of 2010 growth averaged 3.9%. I anticipate the 3rd quarter will see a surge in the rate of economic growth. Preliminary data suggests that nonresidential investment will post another double-digit gain in this quarter. Consumption should see an uptick as oil prices have fallen over the quarter taking some of the pressure off household budgets. Should we expect this acceleration of GDP growth to persist? Unfortunately, no, as we anticipate that the staccato pattern of this economic recovery will persist and growth will again decelerate in the 4th quarter, to just 1.0%.

As disappointing as this year has turned out to be, the most likely scenario is that the economic recovery will continue to limp along as opposed to slipping back into another recession. The probability of a double dip is now elevated to around 30% by our reckoning in the wake of recent weakness in the economy, including shocks from energy, the festering debt crisis in Europe, and the unwelcome return of volatility in the U.S. financial markets. We expect that 2012 will see the same sub-trend levels of growth that 2011 has thus far delivered. Real GDP growth will bounce back to 2.5% in 2013 and accelerate to 3.7% for the full year in 2014, and ease to 2.8% in the 4th quarter. That will represent the strongest annual growth in the U.S. economy since 2000. There is still significant pent-up demand in the economy. However, its release will come in a series of short-lived bursts of spending and not a continuous sustained venting. Business investment in structures, which has languished for two years, will see a transitory surge in 2011. The annual growth is due to a sizeable rebound in growth in the middle half of this year. Uncertainty still hangs over companies like a black cloud and despite record levels of corporate profits, firms are hesitant to hire and payroll growth will remain muted until 2013. The government sector will continue to be a drag on the economy. Federal budget deficits, the $14.8 trillion national debt, the debt ceiling showdown, and the S & P downgrade of U.S. government debt rating have dramatically changed the policy discussion from stimulus to austerity. At the state and local government level, budget deficits have prompted spending cuts, tax hikes and layoffs—all of which are weighing down on the economic recovery in the affected states and in the nation as a whole. Expect to see this belt tightening through 2012. Fiscal policy as a source of economic growth looks to be a non-starter, given the political gridlock in Washington. President Obama’s “bubble and squeak”(ask a Brit about that one) American Jobs Act does not even have the full support of Senate Democrats. Also, in its current “all or nothing” offering from the President, it means it is also DOA in the House of Representatives. Select elements of the act are likely to pass such as payroll tax cuts and extended unemployment benefits. Other components, like expanded infrastructure Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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spending are like a train that has long left the station. The next best chance for a boost to the economy emanating from Washington, D.C. may very well be the 2012 election. C o n s u m e r Spendin g

“If you are not too long, I will wait here for you all my life” – Oscar Wilde It seems like a lifetime since the U.S. consumer was in its high-spending prime during the housing boom when the economy flourished, stock markets soared, home prices skyrocketed and consumers spent freely. Real consumption spending averaged 2.9% during the expansion post-2001 recession. We are forecasting average consumption spending growth to average just 2.0% over the five year span of 2010-2014. This is a formidable handicap for the U.S. economy where consumer spending is 70% of overall GDP. Stated another way 70% of the economy will grow at a pace during this expansion that is less than 70% of the pace by which it grew in the previous one. There are a number of reasons why this is the case. As we noted above in the section on household wealth, there are actually several trillion reasons why this is the case. Consumers are trying to fix balance sheets that resemble a trailer park after a tornado has ripped through it. These types of repairs are never easy- or quick. Lost wealth is a big part of the story behind the lack of consumer spending growth, but not the only part. The languishing labor market, financial market volatility, government debt ceiling and debt downgrade, and surges in food and energy prices have all worked to erode consumer confidence. In fact, consumer confidence fell in August to levels that have not been seen since 1980. To put that in perspective for those who do not recall the wonders of the U.S. economy in the year 1980, consumer price inflation averaged 13% and unemployment was at 7.1% and rising that year. These facts and perhaps some latent remorse for the Disco craze contributed to the sour mood of consumers 31 years ago. It is sobering to think we consumers are currently as dour as we were back then, but the numbers do not lie. 10

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

In the near term, the easing of oil prices will be a salve that will improve consumers’ ability to spend in other areas of the economy. But the price declines are too modest to instigate a rapid burst of consumption spending. I n v e s t m en t Nonresidential fixed investment spending has seen a surge in the middle two quarters of this year. Businesses are still flush with profits --and anxiety. We expect that nonresidential investment will grow at an average pace of 7.1% in 2011 through 2014. This average rate of investment growth is bookended by strong growth in 2011 and 2014, during those two years growth will average 8.9%. Businesses are still sitting on a tremendous amount of cash, hoarded since the recovery began, and interest rates remain at low levels with Operation Twist working to push them even further down. The cost of borrowing is likely to remain subdued for an extended period, in fact we are forecasting the 10-year Treasury yield to remain below 3.0% through the end of 2013. We are expecting that business spending on equipment and software will grow at an annual average rate of 8.1% through 2014. Investment in computers and peripherals will rise in the near term due to replacement cycles and cost reduction-focused IT plans. The expanded investment incentives included in the legislation that extended the Bush tax cuts will also push spending higher in the next eighteen months. This type of investment will experience average growth of 15.2% in 2011 through the end of 2014. The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a burst of activity in investment in non-residential structures with robust growth in 2011Q2 and 2011Q3. We expect growth to continue to decelerate after this period and actually lose ground in 2012. As the commercial credit crisis continues to play itself out, financing will remain difficult to obtain for many commercial developers. Forward looking indicators of activity in the sector, namely the American Institute of Architects Billing Index, shows that the momentum in the commercial/ industrial sector is fading. However, the inquiries index component continues to show expansion. Growth in nonresidential structures will resume in 2013, and in 2014 we expect spending on structures to surge to double digits for the first time since 2007.


U . S . F o r eca s t

As the flow of credit begins to resolve itself, growth will return in this type of investment in 2013. By the time we get into 2014, growth in this component of investment will be a robust 11.3%. Investment in transportation equipment grew robustly in 2010 (57.4%) and will continue to do so throughout our forecast horizon. This type of investment will have an average growth rate of 17.9% during the four years from 2011 through 2014. Continued pent-up demand and persistently low interest rates will bolster light vehicle sales which will grow from 2010 levels of 11.5 million to a level slightly more than 16.5 million in 2014. Residential fixed investment growth has been negative for six straight years including 2011. The somewhat inconsistent recovery, persistently high unemployment, and mortgage underwriting difficulties have prolonged the woes of a floundering housing market. In 2012, things finally start to turn around as residential fixed investment growth finally turns positive in this year and grows by 4.1% from a depressed level. It will average 21.6% growth through 2013-2014 with much faster growth in 2014 of nearly 26%. Housing starts bottomed out in 2009 at 0.554 million and have bounced along that bottom since that time. Inventories of new homes have fallen significantly. We expect starts to accelerate significantly in 2012 before hitting nearly 1.6 million in 2014. G o v e r n m en t Spendin g

“Sooner or later, we shall all have to pay for what we do.” – Oscar Wilde Despite running up deficits from 2009-2012 that we are projecting will exceed $5 trillion in total, the economy remains sluggish. Bailout fatigue and a failed American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (the stimulus plan) have made bold stimulus action today a near impossible political prospect. This is too bad because we are bumping up against the limits of what monetary policy can deliver as far as a stimulus is concerned. A coordinated fiscal and monetary policy would have a larger impact on the economy than either could do on its own. Nevertheless, the opportunity to do

this has passed, and we are likely to see only modest fiscal policy passed in the near term. We will get a cup of coffee when what we need is an injection of adrenaline directly into the heart of the economy (think Pulp Fiction). The Obama administration missed a chance to completely transform fiscal policy, to set the dials to the correct levels for the short, medium and long run. Nevertheless, the President’s decision to shelve the Simpson-Bowles report and not even consider its admittedly painful, yet ultimately necessary recommendations such as entitlement reform and simplification of the burdensomely complex U.S. tax code, left fiscal policy to flap in the wind. Any discussion of fixing our deficit and debt problem that excludes entitlements is an exercise in futility and only delays the difficult changes that must be undertaken. The Greek debt crisis is a cautionary tale, a visit from the fiscal ghost of austerity yet to come. If we do not heed this spirit’s warning, our future could become as dire as Greece’s is today. The national debt is over $14.8 trillion and rising. Trillion-dollar federal budget deficits are lingering like in-laws overstaying a holiday visit. Despite the debtceiling theatrics, we are forecasting deficits to stay above the trillion-dollar level through 2012. In 2013, we are forecasting the federal budget deficit to be $808 billion and $737 billion in 2014. Net Exports Overall trade growth will continue through the end of our 2014 forecast period. The prospect of long awaited free trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Columbia will help drive this growth. Average real export growth is expected to be 7.1% through 2011-2014. Real imports will expand over the same period with an average growth of 3.7 percent. The global economy grows ever more intertwined in the trade of goods and services, as well as in financial flows. The ongoing European debt crisis and its impact on U.S. financial markets is a near daily reminder of our interconnectedness. In 2012 the U.S. dollar will appreciate vis-àvis major trading partners helped in part by the uncertainty in the E.U. The weakening of the U.S. dollar was interrupted by the Greek sovereign debt crisis that continues to unfold, but the dollar will begin to depreciate again after 2012 with low interest Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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U . S . F o r eca s t

rates and persistent trade deficits weighing down on the value of the dollar. The current account deficit will improve in 20112014 due in part to a narrowing of the trade deficit as the dollar resumes its decline post 2012. The improvement is also helped by the flow of income from abroad due to the strong overseas profits boosting factor income and thus the surplus on the income component of the current account. We expect the trade balance to average -$304 billion in 2012 through the end of 2014. The forecast levels of the current account deficit show the deficit narrowing from $427 billion in 2011 to $381 billion in 2014. This deficit is slightly less than 48% of the peak deficit of $801 billion in 2006. U ne m p l o y m en t The national unemployment rate has ticked up in recent months and as of September 2011 stands at 9.1% where it has been stuck since July. That is the good news. The bad news is that it will drift higher before it starts its slow, painfully slow, decline. We expect that unemployment will tick higher to 9.3% into 2012 as job creation will entice those who had given up a fruitless search for work months, or years ago. Underemployment (U-6) is an even bigger problem and stands at 16.5% in September, up from the August 2011 level of 16.2%. This is the third month in a row that this indicator has drifted higher. This excess capacity in the labor market will be utilized before businesses feel the need to go out and hire new workers. High and persistent underemployment is responsible in part for the slow recovery of payroll hiring. It will be many years before we see the unemployment rate fall back into a range consistent with full employment level. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate will still stand at an uncomfortably high 7.8%. It will not fall below 7% until the end of 2015.

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U.S. Forecast | October 2011


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

30-Year Mortgage Rates and Housing Starts (Mortgage rates - Left axis, %)

9.0

2.5

8.0

2.0

7.0

1.5

6.0

1.0

5.0

0.5

4.0 3.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Housing Starts - Millions

0.0

Automobile and Light Truck Sales 11.0

(Millions Vehicles)

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Auto Sales Light Truck Sales

Change in Real Business Inventories 150.0

(Billions of 2000 Dollars)

100.0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Change in Real Business Inventories Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Twin Deficits 500.0

(Billions of Dollars)

0.0 -500.0 -1000.0 -1500.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 U.S. Federal Budget Surplus Current Account

Civilian Unemployment Rate (%)

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Unemployment Rate

U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio 120%

Not Quite Greece...yet.

100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

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U.S. Forecast | October 2011

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 U.S. National Debt to GDP Ratio


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Consumer Prices (% Change Year Ago)

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Consumer Price Index Core Consumer Price Index

Federal Budget Surplus 500.0

(Billions of Dollars)

0.0 -500.0 -1000.0 -1500.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Federal Budget Surplus

Yield Curve 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1-Year T-Bill Yield 5 Year Treasury Bond Yield 30 year Treasury Bond Yield Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Real GDP Growth and Federal Funds Rate 10.0

(%)

5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Quarterly Growth Rate Real GDP Fed Funds Rate

Industrial Production 110.0

(2002=100)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Industrial Production

Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment 2000.0

(Billions of Dollars)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

16

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Manufacturing Employment 18.0

(Millions)

17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Manufacturing Employment

Money Supply

40.0

(Annual Growth Rate %)

30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Annual Growth Rate of M2 Annual Growth Rate of M1

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 140.0

(Millions)

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Total Nonfarm Employment Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Oil and Consumer Confidence 140.0

Oil ($ Per Barrel) - Left Axis

120

120.0

110

100.0

100

80.0

90

60.0

80

40.0

70

20.0

60

0.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Price of Oil WTI Consumer Sentiment

50

Real Disposable Income and Consumption 8.0

(% Change Year Ago)

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0

0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Disposable Income Consumption

Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate

1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Trade Balance (Billions $) Left axis U.S. Dollar Real Exchange Rate (2000 = 1.0) Right axis

18

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

1.40

0.80


Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures History 2003

2004

2005

2006

1885.1

2014.0

2290.1

2524.5

2654.7

2502.3

Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts

774.2

799.2

931.9

1049.9

1165.6

1101.3

Corp. Profits Tax Accruals

197.8

250.3

341.0

395.0

362.8

233.6

89.3

94.3

98.8

99.4

94.5

94.0

762.8

807.6

852.6

904.6

945.3

973.1

F OR E C A ST f o r t h e na t i o n Receipts

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Expenditures

October 2011

2007

2008

Federal Government Rec

2261.5

2393.4

2573.1

2728.3

2900.0

3115.7

Purchases Goods & Services

756.5

824.7

876.3

931.7

976.4

1080.1

National Defense

498.0

550.8

589.1

624.9

662.3

737.8

Other

258.6

273.9

287.3

306.9

314.1

342.3

1339.4

1405.1

1491.3

1587.1

1690.5

1841.9

962.6

1014.3

1078.0

1180.7

1254.2

1385.7

28.6

30.9

40.9

35.0

42.2

45.3

Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

395.5

Net Interest

196.5

204.6

239.0

261.0

291.0

272.1

45.3

45.7

64.1

53.9

50.2

53.6

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-376.4

-379.5

-283.0

-203.8

-245.2

-613.5

Receipts

1496.3

1601.0

1730.5

1829.7

1923.1

1944.8

Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts

977.7

1059.4

1163.1

1249.1

1313.6

1326.4

Corporate Profits

334.4

Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners

Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities

State and Local Government

248.6

276.7

302.5

323.1

34.0

41.7

55.0

59.1

57.8

47.4

Contributions for Social Insurance

20.1

24.1

24.8

21.8

18.9

19.0

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

395.5

Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures

t ab l e s

226.2

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals

1535.13 1609.33 1704.50 1778.63 1910.83 2017.05 2

Purchases Goods & Services

1356.1

1408.2

1493.6

1586.7

1697.9

Government Social Benefits

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

456.7

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

456.7

Interest Received

20.6

19.0

10.9

2.1

0.5

16.2

Net Subsidies

-3.2

-0.6

0.3

1.7

16.2

15.3

Dividends Received

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.9

Net Wage Accruals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-8.4

26.0

51.0

12.2

-72.3

Transfer Payments

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-38.8

1798.0


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 1. Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

2004

2005

2.5 2.5 2.8 6.6 3.4 1.9 1.4 3.1 8.0 8.9 8.7 -0.2 -5.8 -25.2 -3.3 -3.6 -6.1 -6.0 -7.7 14.2 -3.3 8.2 1.6 4.4 6.6 -0.1

3.5 3.1 3.3 7.3 2.8 2.7 6.2 7.9 9.9 11.5 10.9 -2.7 21.0 10.6 29.0 1.1 2.5 5.0 -16.7 16.6 1.4 9.9 9.6 11.1 4.1 -0.2

3.1 3.2 3.4 5.9 3.2 3.0 6.7 8.6 7.3 11.7 1.9 8.3 13.5 -10.0 18.7 1.5 -0.8 17.8 -2.0 10.5 -5.5 6.3 6.8 6.2 1.3 -0.2

History 2006 2007

2009

2010

Billions of Dollars 11836.4 12246.9 12623.0 12958.5 13206.4 13161.9 12703.1 13088.0 11142.2 11853.3 12623.0 13377.2 14028.7 14291.6 13938.9 14526.6

2011

1.7 1.9 2.1 7.5 1.6 1.5 8.8 10.0 6.7 16.6 0.3 10.0 28.6 3.1 30.5 5.5 -1.3 -8.8 5.2 28.0 -8.6 -2.0 6.8 4.7 -1.9 -2.4

3.3 3.4 2.1 4.9 3.1

31.1 3.6 1.3 73.9 17.2 87.6 16.643 1.854 5.443 6.0 -0.3 -377 -519

41.5 2.8 2.3 76.1 58.3 95.2 16.867 1.949 5.914 5.5 1.1 -413 -629

56.5 1.6 3.2 78.2 49.8 88.6 16.948 2.073 6.181 5.1 1.7 -319 -746

66.1 0.9 2.2 78.6 63.2 87.3 16.504 1.812 5.712 4.6 1.8 -248 -801

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (% change (negative = depreciation))

1.13 1.01 1.24 2.97 4.02 5.05 5.82 964 -1.3 1.111 -12.3

1.35 1.37 1.89 3.43 4.27 5.12 5.84 1131 18.0 1.020 -8.1

3.21 3.15 3.62 4.05 4.29 4.56 5.87 1207 6.8 1.000 -1.8

4.96 4.73 4.93 4.75 4.79 4.87 6.41 1311 8.6 0.985 -1.4

Personal Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Disposable Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Real Disposable Income (Bil. Of 2005 $) (% change) Saving Rate (%) After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) (% change)

9378 3.5 8378 4.6 8850 2.5 3.5 660 15.5

9937 6.0 8889 6.1 9153 3.4 3.6 923 40.2

10486 5.5 9277 4.4 9277 1.4 1.6 1228 33.1

11268 7.5 9916 6.9 9653 4.0 2.6 1349 10.1

72.3 1.6 2.7 79.2 28.7 85.6 16.089 1.342 4.959 4.6 1.1 -162 -710

Other Measures 99.6 61.7 79.4 1.0 3.7 3.9 -3.7 -11.0 5.3 74.9 66.2 71.7 -39.0 -116.9 57.3 63.8 66.3 71.8 13.195 10.402 11.545 0.900 0.554 0.585 4.337 4.559 4.311 5.8 9.3 9.6 -0.6 -4.4 -0.7 -455 -1416 -1294 -677 -377 -471

Financial Markets, NSA 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.18 4.35 1.37 0.15 0.14 4.52 1.82 0.47 0.32 4.43 2.80 2.19 1.93 4.63 3.67 3.26 3.21 4.28 4.07 4.25 4.84 6.34 6.04 5.04 4.69 1477 1221 947 1139 12.8 -17.2 -18.9 21.6 0.930 0.888 0.926 0.898 -5.6 -4.1 4.8 -2.8

11912 5.7 10424 5.1 9880 2.4 2.4 1293 -4.2

Incomes 12460 11930 4.6 -4.2 11025 10789 5.8 -2.1 10119 9883 2.4 -2.3 5.4 5.2 1051 1183 -18.6 24.5

12374 3.7 11180 3.6 10062 1.8 5.3 1408 21.2

Forecast 2012 2013

1.5 1.5 1.9 3.9 1.7 1.6 4.7 6.8 7.6 15.0 8.7 9.4 13.2 12.6 10.3 -0.9 4.7 5.5 -6.6 -2.1 -2.3 4.1 4.0 2.1 -2.7 -2.7

2.5 2.4 1.8 5.0 1.4 1.4 5.9 7.1 6.0 13.4 4.8 5.0 17.1 5.8 15.1 2.6 3.9 8.9 -4.3 2.7 5.8 17.3 8.1 3.6 -3.6 -0.8

2014

3.7 3.6 2.0 2.9 1.2 2.1 9.1 8.3 6.8 15.7 9.5 7.1 12.8 7.1 10.7 11.3 19.5 21.2 5.8 0.3 19.5 25.9 9.7 4.2 -2.9 0.5

13311.2 13512.4 13848.7 14356.9 15096.4 15541.4 16140.7 17048.8

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.1 1.2 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.0 3.0 3.9 6.4 -2.5 4.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.4 1.9

2.8 2.7 1.8 3.6 3.8

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

2008

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change 2.7 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 3.0 2.6 2.2 0.2 -2.6 1.4 2.9 2.3 -0.5 -1.9 2.0 4.5 5.0 -4.9 -5.2 7.2 2.6 1.9 -1.2 -1.8 2.9 2.6 2.0 0.5 -1.4 1.0 8.0 6.5 -0.7 -17.8 4.6 7.6 3.3 -4.2 -15.7 14.6 8.7 8.1 2.2 -3.6 9.9 23.3 14.1 8.4 -2.2 30.9 12.8 11.5 -4.7 -7.6 12.6 8.4 4.0 -3.8 -20.7 7.1 9.2 -4.1 -23.0 -44.2 57.4 -5.1 30.6 -3.3 -23.6 -1.0 7.2 -18.2 -12.7 -22.7 -0.9 9.2 14.0 6.7 -21.3 -15.0 6.1 10.0 -3.6 -30.9 -23.7 10.3 18.1 25.8 5.0 -31.9 7.9 39.0 11.6 1.0 -14.9 14.7 6.2 8.4 -34.4 21.9 9.3 15.2 13.2 -18.8 -25.9 -7.2 -18.7 -23.9 -21.8 -4.2 9.0 9.3 6.3 -9.3 11.4 6.1 2.4 -2.7 -13.5 12.6 2.1 1.3 7.2 6.0 4.5 0.9 1.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.8

2.1 2.3 1.5 3.2 3.8

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (Unified, FY, bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

20

2003

2.2 2.9 1.7 5.5 2.3

1.4 1.5 1.6 0.6 2.3

1.3 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.4

1.9 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.8

97.2 99.2 1.4 0.5 5.3 3.6 76.3 78.3 64.2 66.5 73.8 77.3 12.726 14.4 0.632 1.0 4.587 4.9 9.1 9.3 0.9 0.7 -1266 -1066.6 -427 -385.2

104.4 0.9 2.6 78.7 42.1 79.8 15.8 1.4 5.2 9.0 1.4 -800.0 -374.3

108.2 1.7 3.8 80.0 53.0 83.4 16.5 1.6 5.5 8.2 2.1 -635.2 -380.9

0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 2.7 3.6 4.2 1386.6 9.6 0.8 -3.4

1.2 1.3 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.9 1515.1 9.3 0.8 -2.2

0.11 0.07 0.19 1.47 2.67 3.81 4.36 1248 9.8 0.844 -6.0

0.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.9 1266.0 2.0 0.9 1.6

13009 13448.1 13935.1 14688.7 5.1 3.4 3.6 5.4 11612 11948.1 12251.2 12861.7 3.9 2.9 2.5 5.0 10215 10373.8 10446.4 10724.9 1.5 1.6 0.7 2.7 5.0 4.7 3.6 4.2 1477 1568 1740 1826 5.0 6.2 11.0 5.0


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product History 2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption

11836.4 12246.9 12623.0 12958.5 13206.4 13161.9 12703.1 13088.0

13311.2 13512.4 13848.7 14356.9

11820.5 12181.3 12573.0 12899.3 13177.6 13200.6 12852.7 13028.9

13280.0 13485.0 13812.2 14309.1

8244.5

8515.8

8803.5

9054.5

9262.9

9211.7

9037.5

9220.9

9415.9

9593.1

9765.9

9962.2

989.1

1060.9

1123.4

1174.2

1232.4

1171.8

1108.3

1188.3

1276.1

1325.5

1391.8

1432.5

Nondurables

1840.7

1892.8

1953.4

2005.0

2042.9

2019.1

1983.4

2041.3

2074.5

2110.1

2140.2

2166.1

Services

5418.2

5562.7

5726.8

5875.6

5990.1

6017.0

5935.5

5991.8

6079.3

6178.1

6265.6

6399.5

1189.6

1263.0

1347.3

1455.5

1549.9

1537.7

1263.2

1319.2

1434.6

1501.3

1590.2

1734.4

850.0

917.3

995.6

1071.1

1106.8

1059.4

889.7

1019.4

1120.9

1197.4

1282.4

1389.3

403.7

443.1

475.3

516.3

558.2

569.7

548.3

602.6

643.1

692.1

733.7

783.6

Computers & Peripherals

63.4

70.6

78.9

97.1

110.7

119.5

115.7

150.9

176.0

202.2

229.2

265.1

Communications Equipment

74.1

81.7

83.2

93.8

104.4

99.1

91.0

102.4

102.6

111.4

116.8

127.8

Industrial Equipment

151.6

147.4

159.6

172.9

179.9

172.9

137.1

146.6

160.9

176.0

184.8

198.0

Transportation Equipment

132.9

161.1

181.7

198.2

190.2

146.9

77.8

122.7

157.1

177.6

208.0

234.5

22.6

25.1

22.0

20.6

26.8

26.0

19.4

19.2

19.7

22.1

23.4

25.1

31.7

40.8

48.2

51.6

42.1

36.5

28.2

27.9

36.4

40.1

46.1

50.9

343.0

346.7

351.8

384.0

438.2

466.4

367.3

309.1

326.2

322.4

330.5

367.7

133.8

137.1

135.9

144.2

158.6

152.7

105.9

80.0

78.8

82.3

85.4

102.2

Manufacturing

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.6

50.8

34.6

31.0

32.5

35.3

42.6

Power & Communication

55.7

46.2

45.2

48.7

67.8

74.0

74.5

63.2

66.3

61.9

59.1

62.5

Mining & Petroleum

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

101.5

65.8

76.7

97.4

94.9

97.3

97.6

Other

66.5

67.4

63.7

69.6

80.3

90.4

73.5

54.2

49.4

48.3

51.0

61.0

664.3

729.5

775.0

718.2

584.2

444.4

345.6

330.8

324.0

337.4

396.3

498.2

Exports

1116.0

1222.6

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1649.3

1494.0

1663.2

1775.1

1845.3

1994.9

2188.3

Imports

1719.7

1910.4

2027.8

2151.5

2203.3

2144.0

1852.9

2085.0

2181.8

2226.9

2308.2

2405.7

831.1

865.0

876.3

894.9

906.1

971.1

1029.5

1075.9

1055.0

1026.4

989.4

960.8

1499.7

1497.1

1493.6

1507.2

1528.1

1528.1

1514.2

1487.0

1450.6

1411.1

1400.2

1406.7

Durables

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment

Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health

Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Government State & Local Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S.

Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S.

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

2.3 4.2 3.6 17.2 4.3 1.3 8.7 8.1 10.9 22.8 11.9 9.9 1.1 -38.1 0.5 10.5 -8.2 -34.1 81.1 21.9 -17.9 2.5 7.8 -2.3 -3.0 -2.7

0.4 0.0 2.1 11.7 1.6 0.8 2.1 8.7 0.3 -6.5 -4.0 11.7 42.1 -25.0 83.9 -14.3 -19.5 -20.5 -33.3 8.0 -11.1 -2.5 7.9 8.3 -9.4 -3.3

1.3 1.6 0.7 -5.3 0.2 1.9 10.3 6.2 8.9 50.3 -18.1 -0.8 19.7 42.1 48.5 22.6 22.7 55.4 13.0 33.6 -2.4 4.2 3.6 1.4 1.9 -2.8

2.6 2.8 1.5 6.2 -2.9 2.3 14.8 12.6 3.2 9.4 -10.4 7.1 42.9 11.4 20.2 20.9 25.5 17.3 13.6 29.6 7.3 3.1 5.1 0.2 -1.7 -2.4

1.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 4.6 0.5 5.8 7.1 14.3 16.8 32.9 18.6 -3.3 -4.4 -14.5 2.3 4.9 7.7 -0.1 4.4 -6.8 -4.1 2.6 1.3 0.2 -4.1

13216 14755

13228 14868

13272 15013

13357 15199

13389 15306

1.9 2.6 0.6 6.5 2.2

2.5 5.2 1.7 12.4 2.1

2.5 4.1 2.5 7.7 3.2

2.5 1.6 2.8 -1.6 2.4

1.9 0.7 1.5 -0.7 1.9

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (NIPA Bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (%change (negative = depreciation))

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change, Annual Rate 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.3 3.3 3.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.8 6.4 4.7 7.1 5.9 3.6 3.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.7 2.5 1.7 5.5 3.3 10.4 9.6 3.6 7.1 6.8 7.8 3.1 9.8 9.6 5.1 7.0 7.0 9.3 0.7 6.9 8.7 6.6 12.6 19.2 23.6 1.1 10.0 22.7 16.2 7.3 1.6 5.7 -3.9 11.8 11.5 10.2 6.9 7.7 5.7 0.7 5.0 8.0 6.1 17.3 22.1 6.9 19.7 25.9 12.2 24.4 13.2 8.8 5.0 1.7 6.6 7.1 19.3 26.9 -2.6 -9.3 25.6 34.1 23.3 -6.7 -9.3 -11.6 -1.2 3.9 12.0 9.7 -0.5 3.0 -6.5 -3.1 3.6 9.5 11.5 5.6 -5.1 -8.8 -5.7 -3.0 41.4 32.8 -1.8 -1.0 -0.9 -13.7 -16.4 -13.9 -6.2 -11.7 -17.9 -14.8 6.6 9.1 12.2 3.6 -0.4 1.4 -11.9 -4.6 6.3 16.4 19.3 5.5 8.1 7.9 7.4 15.3 26.7 31.8 2.9 3.8 5.8 7.2 8.8 9.7 9.2 1.1 3.5 4.1 4.2 2.1 4.1 4.6 -4.4 -4.4 -3.9 -3.9 -3.7 -3.2 -3.1 -2.7 -2.9 -1.5 -1.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1

13431 15403

13485 15478

13788 16036

13906 16234

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 1.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5

1.5 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.5

3.7 3.7 2.2 2.5 1.1 2.5 8.6 7.5 6.1 13.8 9.0 6.9 10.6 7.7 7.0 12.0 19.8 22.7 5.7 0.9 21.6 25.3 9.8 3.9 -3.0 0.5

3.8 3.8 2.2 2.8 1.3 2.4 8.9 8.0 6.4 15.1 9.2 7.1 12.5 5.7 6.3 11.6 24.2 16.3 9.5 -4.1 20.2 23.4 10.0 4.0 -2.7 0.7

3.9 4.0 2.6 4.9 1.5 2.6 9.1 8.3 6.6 14.6 9.3 6.7 13.4 8.9 3.1 11.4 24.0 6.6 6.5 2.1 16.6 21.6 9.8 4.9 -2.5 0.8

4.0 4.0 2.6 4.4 1.6 2.7 9.1 8.0 6.8 14.5 8.6 7.5 10.1 8.7 0.7 12.2 26.5 11.2 10.0 -0.7 13.4 21.0 9.2 4.8 -2.2 0.8

14025 16444

14153 16680

14285 16921

14423 17168

14566 17427

1.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6

2.1 2.6 2.6 1.8 3.0

2.1 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.7

2.0 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.8

2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.9

Other Key Measures 90.2 93.7 98.4 100.8 101.8 85.0 94.0 102.6 85.8 86.1 86.5 86.7 87.9 90.1 88.6 89.1 89.5 2.2 -0.6 -0.7 3.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 0.5 4.0 0.6 0.9 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.8 73.3 74.5 74.4 74.9 74.8 74.9 75.5 75.8 75.9 76.1 76.9 77.6 78.3 78.9 79.5 80.1 80.8 44.7 59.7 51.0 42.3 28.2 31.9 36.2 35.2 31.1 29.0 35.2 46.2 55.0 54.2 52.4 51.3 52.7 71.3 73.1 71.9 60.6 60.3 63.5 68.1 68.6 71.6 74.1 75.2 77.2 78.6 78.9 78.8 79.2 79.6 12.278 12.967 12.108 12.479 12.526 12.569 12.958 13.388 13.822 14.295 14.689 14.981 15.035 15.219 15.465 15.858 16.059 0.539 0.582 0.572 0.579 0.619 0.612 0.635 0.665 0.693 0.768 0.882 0.984 1.080 1.176 1.272 1.376 1.457 4.170 4.473 4.303 4.288 4.195 4.331 4.462 4.593 4.718 4.847 4.853 4.923 4.968 4.984 5.099 5.198 5.319 9.6 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.8 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 -1287 -1201 -1265 -1168 -1187 -1081 -1059 -1021 -979 -823 -777 -742 -724 -678 -673 -662 -647 -449 -478 -472 -393 -364 -356 -381 -403 -401 -377 -367 -378 -375 -373 -374 -387 -389

0.19 0.14 0.26 1.49 2.86 4.16 4.41 1204 45.4 0.870 -14.6

0.16 0.13 0.27 2.12 3.46 4.56 4.85 1303 37.1 0.857 -5.7

0.09 0.05 0.21 1.86 3.21 4.34 4.66 1319 5.1 0.830 -12.2

0.10 0.04 0.15 1.04 2.25 3.55 4.19 1236 -22.8 0.832 1.0

0.11 0.05 0.15 0.85 1.76 2.77 3.72 1134 -29.3 0.856 11.9

0.08 0.05 0.14 0.95 1.91 2.91 3.65 1205 27.5 0.867 5.2

0.06 0.03 0.12 1.12 2.09 3.08 3.81 1257 18.7 0.865 -0.8

Personal Income (Bil. of $) 12578 (% change) 4.1 Disposable Income (Bil. of $) 11337 (% change) 3.5 Real Disposable Income (Bil. of 2005 $) 10152 (% change) 1.5 Saving Rate (%) 5.2 After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) 1338 (% change) -19.9

12847 8.8 11481 5.2 10183 1.2 5.0 1455 39.8

12993 4.6 11592 3.9 10198 0.6 5.1 1470 4.3

13045 1.6 11633 1.4 10200 0.1 4.7 1491 5.8

13152 3.3 11742 3.8 10278 3.1 5.0 1492 0.2

13279 3.9 11828 3.0 10324 1.8 5.0 1557 18.6

13391 3.4 11915 3.0 10377 2.1 4.9 1553 -1.0

22

Billions of Dollars 13535 13599 13676 15582 15703 15849

3.5 3.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.7 9.1 8.6 7.1 17.4 8.7 7.9 12.9 6.1 13.4 10.4 17.7 23.6 7.4 -2.6 21.1 29.5 9.8 4.0 -3.1 0.3

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

Financial Markets, NSA 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.13 0.14 0.15 1.31 1.37 1.43 2.27 2.36 2.49 3.23 3.31 3.43 3.96 4.00 4.08 1289 1312 1344 10.4 7.5 9.8 0.853 0.845 0.837 -5.6 -3.7 -3.7

0.06 0.04 0.16 1.48 2.63 3.55 4.16 1372 8.6 0.830 -3.4

0.07 0.05 0.19 1.53 2.75 3.67 4.25 1399 8.4 0.825 -2.0

0.10 0.16 0.41 1.74 2.95 3.88 4.44 1432 9.5 0.822 -1.8

0.44 0.56 0.89 2.03 3.19 4.12 4.66 1464 9.5 0.816 -2.9

0.95 1.03 1.41 2.32 3.31 4.25 4.75 1499 9.8 0.811 -2.1

1.44 1.53 1.96 2.74 3.54 4.41 4.96 1533 9.4 0.808 -1.8

1.98 2.06 2.53 3.18 3.78 4.53 5.18 1564 8.5 0.805 -1.5

Incomes 13620 13716 3.5 2.9 12062 12093 2.5 1.0 10407 10386 0.8 -0.8 4.2 3.6 1590 1696 4.6 29.5

13858 4.2 12185 3.1 10417 1.2 3.5 1731 8.6

14006 4.3 12296 3.7 10461 1.7 3.6 1751 4.6

14161 4.5 12431 4.5 10522 2.4 3.8 1781 7.1

14380 6.3 12589 5.2 10592 2.7 3.9 1811 6.9

14576 5.6 12766 5.7 10674 3.1 4.1 1833 5.0

14792 6.1 12953 6.0 10770 3.7 4.3 1823 -2.2

15006 5.9 13139 5.9 10864 3.6 4.6 1835 2.7

13503 3.4 11988 2.5 10387 0.4 4.5 1572 5.1


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables

13216.1 13227.9 13271.8 13356.5 13388.7 13430.6 13485.3 13534.9 13598.9 13675.6 13788.2 13905.8 14025.3 14153.4 14285.1 14423.3 14566.0 13181.6 13182.8 13236.2 13328.1 13372.7 13408.1 13455.9 13503.8 13572.0 13651.5 13757.9 13864.4 13975.2 14104.0 14237.5 14376.8 14518.1

9328.4 9376.7 9392.7 9427.4 9466.9 9511.8 9570.6 9619.7 9670.2 9710.3 9746.7 9785.7 9820.9 9874.1 9927.8 9991.1 ###### 1242.4 1277.4 1260.2 1279.2 1287.8 1296.8 1317.1 1332.4 1355.6 1375.3 1387.4 1400.4 1404.1 1412.7 1422.6 1439.7 1455.2

Nondurables

2067.4 2075.4 2076.6 2061.4 2084.7 2094.6 2105.4 2116.5 2123.7 2131.2 2137.4 2143.5 2148.6 2154.6 2161.7 2169.6 2178.4

Services

6027.5 6039.1 6067.0 6101.6 6109.7 6136.5 6167.2 6192.1 6216.4 6233.0 6253.0 6275.0 6301.3 6340.4 6377.9 6418.7 6461.1

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment

1371.9 1378.9 1413.2 1462.8 1483.5 1486.1 1495.4 1501.8 1521.9 1534.4 1572.7 1609.2 1644.5 1678.8 1714.9 1752.7 1791.3 1064.5 1086.9 1103.5 1136.7 1156.5 1166.7 1186.9 1206.6 1229.4 1238.9 1268.2 1297.6 1324.7 1349.0 1375.0 1402.8 1430.2 624.5

625.0

638.4

643.4

665.4

673.7

685.2

697.0

712.5

713.8

725.8

741.1

754.0

765.2

777.0

789.5

802.7

162.1

159.4

176.5

180.5

187.7

190.7

196.4

205.2

216.4

217.0

222.3

233.9

243.5

251.5

260.5

269.5

278.8

107.1

106.0

100.8

98.1

105.3

109.4

111.3

111.7

113.3

112.2

115.3

118.5

121.0

123.6

126.4

129.2

131.9

Industrial Equipment

153.7

158.1

157.7

160.5

167.5

171.6

174.4

177.7

180.2

180.5

182.7

186.3

189.8

193.0

196.4

199.5

203.2

Transportation Equipment

133.1

145.4

152.0

166.2

164.8

167.3

174.1

183.0

186.1

194.7

206.2

212.2

218.8

224.4

231.1

238.5

244.3

Aircraft Other Equipment Structures

19.6

18.2

19.9

20.4

20.2

21.3

22.0

22.5

22.7

22.8

23.2

23.6

24.0

24.4

24.8

25.3

25.8

28.6

33.3

36.7

38.5

37.0

38.7

41.0

40.8

39.8

42.1

45.3

47.8

49.3

50.1

50.9

51.3

51.4

318.0

305.9

321.9

337.5

339.5

333.6

325.6

315.6

314.7

317.7

326.8

334.5

342.9

352.7

362.5

372.4

383.2

Commercial & Health

77.5

73.4

77.3

81.8

82.8

82.7

83.3

81.9

81.3

82.0

83.9

86.2

89.8

93.9

99.2

104.6

111.0

Manufacturing

29.4

27.8

31.0

32.3

32.9

33.3

32.9

32.1

31.7

31.4

34.3

36.8

38.8

40.8

42.4

43.1

44.2

Power & Communication

70.6

63.8

65.7

67.9

67.9

65.4

62.5

60.2

59.3

59.0

58.9

58.7

59.8

60.6

62.0

63.0

64.5

Mining & Petroleum

87.2

88.9

95.6

102.0

103.1

100.0

95.2

91.4

92.9

95.0

97.7

98.6

97.9

98.2

97.1

97.7

97.5

Other

50.9

49.4

49.1

50.0

49.1

49.1

49.3

47.7

47.2

47.9

49.7

52.0

54.5

57.3

60.0

62.3

64.3

323.1

321.1

324.4

326.9

323.5

327.9

334.3

340.7

346.8

359.4

381.4

408.6

435.9

461.1

486.0

510.4

535.3

Residential Fixed Investment Exports

1716.8 1749.6 1765.0 1787.2 1798.7 1811.6 1828.4 1854.4 1887.0 1927.4 1972.4 2016.1 2063.7 2112.3 2163.1 2214.2 2263.7

Imports

2131.0 2173.9 2181.4 2182.4 2189.6 2195.9 2214.7 2237.0 2260.2 2272.2 2295.2 2321.3 2344.2 2366.7 2389.9 2418.9 2447.4

Federal Government

1079.6 1053.3 1058.3 1053.8 1054.5 1042.6 1031.1 1020.9 1010.9 1001.4

State & Local Government

1478.9 1466.4 1456.1 1447.4 1432.5 1422.9 1412.4 1407.0 1402.1 1399.6 1400.2 1399.9 1400.9 1402.7 1405.2 1408.1 1410.8

993.2

985.4

977.6

970.3

963.6

957.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

952.1

23


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 5. Annual Employment

Table 5. Annual Employment 2003

2004

2005

History 2006 2007

2008

2009

Forecast 2012 2013

2010

2011

2014

Total Nonfarm Employment

129.996 131.419 133.694 136.092 137.587 136.778 130.789 129.822

130.982

131.88 133.773 136.599

Private Nonfarm

108.416 109.801 111.890 114.117 115.367 114.278 108.231 107.335

108.956

110.19 112.080 114.756

Millions

Mining

0.503

0.523

0.562

0.620

0.664

0.709

0.644

0.656

0.735

0.72

0.714

0.700

Construction

6.736

6.973

7.333

7.690

7.627

7.161

6.014

5.527

5.499

5.27

5.282

5.833

Manufacturing

14.508

14.315

14.225

14.156

13.877

13.402

11.845

11.527

11.717

11.85

12.045

12.315

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

25.287

25.536

25.960

26.278

26.626

26.293

24.902

24.609

24.896

25.28

25.797

26.128

Transportation & Warehousing

4.184

4.250

4.363

4.469

4.540

4.507

4.235

4.182

4.269

4.40

4.550

4.727

Financial Activities

7.976

8.031

8.153

8.328

8.299

8.143

7.770

7.632

7.609

7.66

7.727

7.704

Education & Health

16.588

16.950

17.370

17.825

18.319

18.838

19.191

19.563

19.966

20.29

20.575

20.860

Professional & Business Services

15.985

16.388

16.952

17.572

17.945

17.740

16.571

16.680

17.168

17.44

18.124

19.430

3.189

3.117

3.061

3.038

3.032

2.984

2.803

2.711

2.675

2.69

2.761

2.787

Leisure & Hospitality

12.175

12.492

12.813

13.109

13.425

13.436

13.074

13.017

13.191

13.46

13.510

13.447

Government

21.580

21.618

21.804

21.975

22.220

22.500

22.558

22.487

22.026

21.69

21.694

21.843

2.760

2.731

2.732

2.733

2.735

2.761

2.832

2.967

2.830

2.76

2.683

2.612

18.820

18.887

19.073

19.242

19.485

19.739

19.726

19.520

19.196

18.93

19.011

19.231

Information

Federal State & Local

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

-0.26

1.09

1.73

1.79

1.10

-0.59

-4.38

-0.73

0.89

0.69

1.43

2.11

Private Nonfarm

-0.38

1.28

1.90

1.99

1.10

-0.94

-5.29

-0.81

1.51

1.13

1.71

2.39

Mining

-0.23

5.16

9.36

10.03

5.80

6.69

-14.65

11.98

10.23

-5.41

-0.15

-2.89

1.53

4.31

5.81

2.36

-1.93

-9.25

-16.60

-3.14

-1.09

-4.43

4.23

13.24

Manufacturing

-4.46

-0.05

-0.84

-1.04

-2.05

-5.39

-11.47

0.56

1.86

1.36

1.53

2.72

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

-0.57

1.52

1.64

1.16

1.17

-3.32

-4.74

0.48

1.16

2.06

1.92

1.01

Transportation & Warehousing

-1.00

2.58

2.48

2.60

0.92

-2.77

-5.68

1.35

1.85

3.42

3.90

3.47

Financial Activities

1.25

0.95

2.13

1.35

-1.30

-2.46

-4.32

-0.91

-0.17

1.29

0.44

-0.55

Education & Health

2.12

2.36

2.51

2.62

2.88

2.57

1.72

2.13

1.81

1.55

1.31

1.17

Professional & Business Services

1.08

2.99

3.74

3.08

1.63

-3.64

-5.19

2.39

2.74

1.58

6.00

6.98

-5.02

-2.04

-1.07

-0.93

-0.03

-3.11

-6.04

-2.05

-0.89

0.45

3.43

1.67

1.59

2.59

2.15

2.85

2.12

-1.66

-2.46

0.76

1.24

2.44

-0.54

-0.33

Government

-0.14

0.62

0.81

1.03

1.17

0.98

-0.19

-0.98

-1.91

-0.92

0.44

0.77

Federal

-1.55

-0.37

0.34

-0.21

0.55

1.16

2.45

4.09

-1.43

-2.74

-2.78

-2.44

0.08

0.77

0.88

1.20

1.25

0.95

-0.54

-1.24

-1.98

-0.66

0.90

1.22

Construction

Information Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local

24

U.S. Forecast | October 2011


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 6. Quarterly Employment

Table 6. Quarterly Employment

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Employment (Millions) Total Nonfarm Employment

130.1 130.5 131.0 131.2 131.2 131.3 131.7 132.1 132.4 132.8 133.4 134.1 134.8 135.5 136.2 137.0 137.7

Private Nonfarm

107.9 108.3 108.9 109.2 109.4 109.6 110.0 110.4 110.8 111.2 111.7 112.4 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.1 115.8

Mining

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Construction

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.9

6.1

Manufacturing

11.6

11.6

11.7

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.9

11.9

12.0

12.0

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.3

12.4

12.4

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

24.7

24.8

24.9

24.9

25.0

25.1

25.2

25.4

25.5

25.6

25.7

25.9

26.0

26.0

26.1

26.2

26.3

Transportation & Warehousing

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

Financial Activities

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

Education & Health

19.7

19.8

19.9

20.0

20.1

20.2

20.3

20.4

20.4

20.5

20.6

20.6

20.7

20.8

20.9

20.9

20.9

Professional & Business Services

16.8

17.0

17.1

17.2

17.3

17.3

17.4

17.5

17.6

17.7

17.9

18.3

18.6

18.9

19.3

19.6

19.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

Leisure & Hospitality

13.1

13.1

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.6

13.6

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.4

13.4

Government

22.3

22.2

22.1

22.0

21.8

21.8

21.7

21.6

21.6

21.7

21.7

21.7

21.7

21.8

21.8

21.9

21.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

19.4

19.3

19.3

19.1

19.0

19.0

18.9

18.9

18.9

18.9

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.1

19.2

19.3

19.3

Information

Federal State & Local

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

0.75

1.30

1.43

0.43

0.15

0.40

1.10

1.07

1.16

1.24

1.66

2.01

2.15

2.09

2.14

2.18

2.25

Private Nonfarm

1.46

1.84

2.09

1.06

0.57

0.80

1.56

1.45

1.39

1.44

1.92

2.31

2.43

2.36

2.41

2.43

2.52

1.06

-8.61

-9.06

-3.96

-0.65

-0.14

0.93

-0.50

-0.92

-2.76

-2.75

-3.11

-3.08

Mining

11.00

7.09 19.44 11.20

Construction

-0.48

0.07

1.45

-0.30

-5.74

-6.41

-5.68

-3.62

-2.37

-1.10

2.78

6.15

8.63

9.98 12.39 13.93 14.18

Manufacturing

-0.21

3.35

2.16

0.98

0.89

-0.33

3.08

1.21

1.45

2.01

1.25

1.13

1.68

2.50

3.04

2.76

2.49

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

1.42

1.11

2.02

0.64

0.85

1.24

2.24

2.37

2.33

1.62

1.80

2.38

1.81

0.52

0.84

1.23

1.46

Transportation & Warehousing

3.93

0.72

2.70

0.96

3.02

3.26

3.45

3.67

3.31

2.61

3.39

4.80

4.82

3.58

3.53

3.30

3.45

Financial Activities

0.00

-0.45

0.39

-0.27

-0.32

0.87

1.56

1.52

1.21

1.08

0.01

0.13

0.52

-0.85

-0.74

-0.31

-0.30

Education & Health

2.56

2.04

1.96

2.04

1.21

1.35

2.34

1.62

0.90

1.28

1.96

0.91

1.10

2.64

1.16

0.27

0.62

Professional & Business Services

3.18

4.06

3.26

2.20

1.45

0.22

1.78

2.36

1.98

2.59

5.65

7.79

7.95

7.04

7.16

6.94

6.79

-1.37

-1.77

-0.20

-3.24

1.66

8.51

-3.65

-5.42

2.36

5.78

7.49

3.02

-2.57

-1.08

1.65

2.80

3.29

0.37

1.68

2.15

0.78

0.35

2.96

3.20

2.39

1.19

0.22

-1.11

-1.11

-0.15

-0.23

-0.58

-0.46

-0.06

-2.63

-1.31

-1.76

-2.66

-1.90

-1.57

-1.22

-0.88

-0.02

0.20

0.33

0.49

0.73

0.70

0.74

0.83

0.82

-11.86

0.61

-1.72

-2.64

-1.97

-2.77

-2.72

-2.72

-2.72

-2.78

-2.78

-2.78

-2.77

-2.78

-2.53

-2.30

-2.14

-1.17

-1.59

-1.77

-2.66

-1.89

-1.40

-1.00

-0.61

0.38

0.63

0.78

0.96

1.23

1.19

1.20

1.26

1.23

Information Leisure & Hospitality Government Federal State & Local

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100)

Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

GDP

111.7 112.4 113.1 113.8 114.3 114.7 114.8 115.1 115.5 115.9 116.3 116.7 117.2 117.8 118.5 119.0 119.6

Consumption

111.7 112.7 113.7 114.1 114.2 114.6 114.8 115.4 115.9 116.4 117.0 117.5 118.1 118.9 119.6 120.3 120.9

Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture

90.5

90.4

90.7

90.7

90.4

90.0

89.7

89.6

89.5

89.5

89.5

89.5

89.6

89.7

89.8

89.8

89.9

103.5 104.0 106.3 107.4 107.2 106.8 106.7 106.8 107.1 107.5 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 92.1

92.2

92.5

92.9

92.7

92.6

92.5

92.5

92.5

92.5

92.6

92.7

92.9

93.2

93.4

93.7

93.9

Other Durables

111.9 113.2 114.0 114.6 115.4 115.6 116.1 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.9 119.7 120.5 121.4 122.2 123.0 123.7

Nondurables

114.1 117.5 119.4 119.4 118.8 119.1 119.1 120.3 121.1 121.8 122.4 123.0 123.7 124.6 125.7 126.5 127.3

Food

114.3 116.1 117.9 119.2 119.9 120.6 120.9 121.2 121.5 121.9 122.2 122.6 123.0 123.5 124.0 124.4 124.9

Clothing & Shoes

97.5

97.6

98.3 101.8 101.5 101.4 101.4 101.7 102.0 102.3 102.7 103.0 103.4 103.9 104.3 104.6 104.9

Gasoline & Oil

133.9 152.5 159.7 151.4 144.4 143.6 140.4 147.2 149.7 151.0 151.5 151.7 152.1 154.0 156.6 158.3 159.3

Fuel

141.2 165.3 178.0 165.2 153.3 152.8 154.1 157.1 159.5 160.8 161.6 162.3 163.1 164.8 167.0 168.5 169.6

Services

115.0 115.6 116.3 116.9 117.4 117.9 118.4 118.9 119.4 120.0 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.1

Housing

112.6 113.0 113.3 114.0 114.4 114.7 115.1 115.4 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.4 118.0 118.7 119.3 120.0 120.7

Electricity

128.8 129.4 130.4 130.6 132.3 133.9 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.8 137.9 139.3 140.7 141.9 143.1 144.5 145.9

Natural Gas

85.9

85.8

87.6

90.1

90.9

89.8

90.0

92.2

95.1

98.5 100.5 101.2 103.6 103.6 105.6 105.1 106.0

Water & Sewer

134.3 136.4 138.2 139.2 140.7 142.2 143.5 144.7 145.8 147.1 148.3 149.5 150.7 151.8 153.1 154.4 155.7

Telephone

104.6 103.5 103.3 103.0 103.0 102.6 102.2 101.8 101.4 101.0 100.7 100.4 100.1

Transportation

118.6 120.2 121.2 121.4 121.6 122.0 122.2 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.5 126.2 127.0 127.7 128.4

Other Services

120.2 121.2 121.9 123.1 124.0 124.7 125.4 126.1 126.7 127.4 128.0 128.8 129.5 130.2 131.0 131.9 132.7

26

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

99.9

99.7

99.5

99.4


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 8. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

Table 8. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

GDP

1.9

2.5

2.5

2.5

1.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

Consumption

1.9

3.9

3.3

1.4

0.6

1.2

0.9

2.1

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.2

Durables

-2.4

-0.6

1.7

-0.1

-1.6

-1.7

-1.2

-0.6

-0.4

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.2

Motor Vehicles

-0.3

2.2

8.8

4.3

-0.7

-1.3

-0.7

0.6

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

Furniture

-4.0

0.1

1.6

1.4

-0.8

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.0

Other Durables

4.0

4.7

2.8

2.1

2.9

0.9

1.6

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.4

Nondurables

6.2

12.4

6.7

0.1

-2.0

1.0

-0.1

4.3

2.7

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.2

3.1

3.3

2.8

2.5

Food

1.4

6.5

6.4

4.3

2.6

2.2

1.1

0.7

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

Clothing & Shoes

-2.9

0.6

2.7

15.0

-1.3

-0.2

0.2

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.9

1.4

1.3

1.1

Gasoline & Oil

45.3

68.1

20.1

-19.2

-17.3

-2.0

-8.8

20.9

7.1

3.4

1.2

0.7

1.1

5.0

7.0

4.4

2.4

Fuel

46.7

87.8

34.4

-25.8

-25.9

-1.2

3.4

8.0

6.3

3.2

2.1

1.7

1.8

4.3

5.4

3.8

2.5

Services

1.2

1.9

2.4

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.5

Housing

1.0

1.4

1.2

2.6

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

Electricity

2.7

1.7

3.3

0.6

5.3

4.8

2.3

1.9

2.1

2.4

3.3

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.4

3.9

3.8

-15.0

-0.8

8.7

12.0

3.8

-4.7

0.9

10.2

13.1

14.8

8.3

2.8

10.2

-0.2

8.2

-1.9

3.3

5.0

6.2

5.4

2.9

4.6

4.2

3.8

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.5

-1.9

-4.3

-0.6

-1.2

0.0

-1.4

-1.9

-1.3

-1.8

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-1.1

-1.0

-0.9

-0.5

-0.8

Transportation

2.0

5.4

3.5

0.5

0.8

1.0

0.7

1.4

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

Other Services

2.1

3.4

2.4

3.9

3.0

2.4

2.0

2.4

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.6

Natural Gas Water & Sewer Telephone

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100)

2003

2004

2005

History 2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Forecast 2012 2013

2014

GDP Consumption Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture

94.1 94.7 103.1 99.1 101.2

96.8 97.1 101.1 98.4 99.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

103.2 102.7 98.4 100.1 99.6

106.2 105.5 96.4 99.6 98.9

108.6 108.9 94.6 97.8 98.1

109.7 109.2 92.9 98.2 97.8

111.0 111.1 91.3 103.1 93.7

113.4 113.7 90.5 106.2 92.6

115.0 115.2 89.7 106.9 92.5

116.5 117.3 89.5 108.2 92.7

118.7 119.9 89.8 110.2 93.6

Other Durables

101.9

101.5

100.0

101.8

105.5

Nondurables Food Clothing & Shoes Gasoline & Oil

92.8 95.3 101.2 69.8

96.1 98.3 100.9 82.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

103.2 101.7 99.6 112.8

106.5 105.6 98.6 123.9

109.1 112.6 112.1 97.9 144.9

110.4 109.3 113.5 98.7 106.1

110.9 112.7 113.9 98.0 125.4

114.3 118.8 118.3 99.8 152.0

116.5 119.9 121.1 101.6 145.2

119.3 122.7 122.4 102.9 151.6

122.5 126.0 124.2 104.4 157.1

64.1 93.7 95.4 92.5 77.3

74.6 96.7 97.6 94.2 83.7

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.3

114.2 103.4 103.6 112.1 102.7

123.5 107.0 107.3 116.7 102.5

168.4 110.6 110.2 124.2 116.1

114.1 112.4 112.2 128.0 90.6

133.9 114.5 112.3 128.2 88.8

165.5 116.5 113.7 130.7 88.6

155.9 118.7 115.3 134.9 91.8

162.0 121.0 117.1 138.7 100.9

167.5 123.9 119.7 143.9 105.1

89.7 102.3 95.1 91.2

95.0 100.7 96.5 95.4

100.0 100.0

104.9 100.6

110.3 102.4

116.7 104.0

123.9 105.5

131.8 104.9

138.6 103.2

144.1 102.0

148.9 100.6

153.8 99.6

100.0 100.0

104.2 104.1

106.6 107.4

112.5 112.5

115.7 115.4

118.1 119.1

121.1 122.5

122.4 125.7

124.5 128.4

127.3 131.5

Fuel Services Housing Electricity Natural Gas Water & Sewer Telephone Transportation Other Services

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators History 2006 2007

2003

2004

2005

GDP Consumption Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture

2.1 1.9 -4.1 -3.9 -3.1

3.2 3.0 -0.9 1.6 -0.1

3.5 3.3 -1.3 1.0 -0.3

2.9 1.9 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1

Other Durables Nondurables Food Clothing & Shoes Gasoline & Oil

-1.6 2.1 3.2 -1.6 19.4

-0.3 4.9 2.7 -0.5 28.8

-0.2 4.5 1.5 -1.3 31.8

Fuel Services Housing Electricity Natural Gas

21.4 3.2 2.2 3.2 22.1

41.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 14.7

Water & Sewer

4.6 -1.7 2.6 4.9

5.9 -1.7 1.4 4.4

Telephone Transportation Other Services

Forecast 2012 2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2014

2.6 3.5 -1.9 0.5 -1.5

2.1 1.8 -2.1 -4.0 0.3

0.7 1.5 -1.1 5.4 -2.0

1.6 1.3 -2.3 2.3 -4.3

2.3 2.3 -0.2 3.6 0.6

1.0 1.5 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3

1.5 1.9 0.1 1.7 0.5

2.0 2.4 0.3 1.9 1.0

3.2 0.5 1.7 0.2 -0.8

2.5 6.4 4.7 -1.2 30.4

3.4 1.0 7.0 -0.9 5.1

1.4 2.8 -1.7 1.4 24.8

0.5 2.2 1.3 -1.4 13.4

3.1 4.3 4.9 4.3 12.9

1.7 2.0 1.3 0.5 4.3

2.6 2.1 1.2 1.5 1.6

2.6 2.9 1.6 1.4 4.7

33.1 3.8 2.5 10.2 44.9

-0.3 3.1 4.4 8.6 -18.3

28.5 3.5 3.0 5.3 3.5

23.2 3.0 2.6 8.4 19.1

-0.3 1.6 0.9 -0.2 -18.4

16.2 1.6 0.3 0.5 -1.0

17.6 2.1 1.7 2.7 5.9

4.1 1.7 1.2 2.8 4.9

2.2 2.2 1.9 3.5 9.0

4.0 2.5 2.3 3.7 2.3

5.0 0.2 4.9 4.7

4.9 1.2 2.5 4.0

5.2 1.5 3.4 3.3

6.7 2.0 6.0 5.0

6.0 0.7 2.0 2.2

5.8 -1.0 1.4 3.0

4.8 -1.5 2.6 3.2

3.6 -1.6 1.2 2.2

3.3 -1.2 1.9 2.2

3.4 -0.8 2.4 2.5

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components History

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Personal Income Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

9378.2 9937.3 10485.9 11268.1 11912.3 12460.2 11930.2 12373.5

Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income Farm Income Rental Income

6382.6 6693.4 845.6 874.6 894.1 984.1 36.5 49.7 204.2 198.4

7065.1 931.6 1025.9 43.9 178.2

7477.0 960.2 1103.6 29.4 146.5

7855.9 980.5 1052.6 37.8 143.7

8068.3 1052.4 1046.1 51.8 231.6

7806.4 1073.1 902.1 39.2 305.9

7971.4 1090.0 984.2 52.2 350.2

13009.3 13448.1 13935.1 14688.7 8269.6 1112.2 1045.3 69.0 404.2

8535.6 1153.7 1085.8 78.5 404.6

8906.5 1207.4 1141.4 68.9 363.0

9376.2 1270.7 1232.1 60.7 332.2

Dividends 423.1 548.3 Interest Income 889.8 860.2 Transfer Payments 1341.8 1415.5 396.5 419.2 Personal Social Insurance Tax

555.0 987.0 1508.6 445.2

702.2 1127.5 1605.0 475.1

791.9 1265.1 1718.5 499.6

783.4 1382.0 1879.2 517.2

598.8 1108.9 2138.1 506.1

717.7 1003.4 2281.2 513.6

798.3 1000.1 2346.0 426.5

885.9 990.6 2434.1 451.4

935.1 1025.0 2537.2 502.7

972.0 1134.1 2703.8 552.8

Percent Change, Annual Rate Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income

3.5 4.4 13.2 2.5

6.0 4.9 3.5 10.1

5.5 5.6 6.5 4.3

7.5 5.8 3.1 7.6

5.7 5.1 2.1 -4.6

4.6 2.7 7.3 -0.6

-4.2 -3.2 2.0 -13.7

3.7 2.1 1.6 9.2

5.1 3.7 2.0 6.3

3.4 3.2 3.7 3.9

3.6 4.3 4.7 5.1

5.4 5.3 5.2 7.9

Farm Income Rental Income Dividends Interest Income Transfer Payments

113.5 14.9 14.0 -2.2 4.5

38.7 -9.4 43.3 0.2 6.0

-11.1 -10.9 -0.6 19.4 6.3

-32.7 -23.8 26.8 10.9 6.7

28.3 32.7 7.6 13.7 7.6

39.9 66.4 -9.1 2.6 10.1

-22.8 18.9 -13.6 -21.7 15.2

32.8 9.2 27.2 -4.5 7.2

34.0 19.6 10.2 -0.7 1.2

13.9 -8.0 10.0 1.8 4.3

-12.2 -10.7 3.5 5.2 4.2

-11.8 -6.7 4.5 15.2 6.6

4.2

6.1

5.9

6.7

5.2

2.0

-2.1

2.5

-11.5

6.4

12.3

10.6

Personal Social Insurance Tax 28

U.S. Forecast | October 2011


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars

Consumer spending on… all goods & services

10417.1 10571.7 10676.0 10752.4 10814.6 10898.1 10988.9 11101.8 11207.8 11306.1 11401.5 11502.1 11602.6 11735.9 11873.6 12016.6 12161.5

durable goods

1124.7 1154.5 1143.8 1160.6 1163.6 1166.8 1181.4 1193.4 1212.9 1230.3 1241.5 1253.7 1257.9 1267.2 1277.2 1293.2 1307.7 246.1

248.3

251.2

252.4

254.2

255.7

258.5

260.7

263.6

266.2

268.3

270.3

272.1

273.1

273.8

274.4

275.2

94.0

95.2

95.7

95.8

96.4

97.0

97.9

98.4

99.1

99.6

100.3

101.3

102.4

103.3

104.6

106.0

107.5

motor vehicles and parts

367.1

383.0

363.4

374.6

372.3

369.7

376.4

381.9

393.5

404.2

409.8

417.0

416.3

421.2

426.6

437.5

446.2

other durable goods

119.8

124.2

127.3

128.0

128.4

129.3

130.6

131.7

132.9

133.9

134.7

135.4

136.1

136.8

137.5

138.4

139.3

furniture and appliances information processing equipment

nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

2358.7 2437.8 2478.9 2461.5 2477.0 2494.7 2506.7 2546.7 2572.2 2595.6 2616.1 2636.8 2657.5 2685.4 2716.4 2745.4 2773.6 341.3

344.5

348.6

349.5

346.0

348.7

351.1

353.9

354.8

355.4

356.7

358.2

359.3

360.5

363.2

366.0

24.1

26.6

25.6

23.7

23.9

23.7

23.9

24.2

24.4

24.6

24.7

24.8

24.8

25.0

25.2

25.4

368.4 25.5

349.9

393.5

405.9

378.1

381.5

381.2

374.5

393.9

401.2

405.5

406.4

407.2

407.7

410.6

415.1

418.2

420.2

897.9

905.8

913.5

food

778.2

792.0

806.7

814.2

822.2

831.0

838.5

846.5

853.6

860.8

867.8

874.6

881.5

889.5

other nondurable goods

865.2

881.1

892.1

896.0

903.3

910.1

918.8

928.2

938.4

949.4

960.5

972.0

984.2

999.8 1015.0 1030.1 1046.0

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

9328.4 9376.7 9392.7 9427.4 9466.9 9511.8 9570.6 9619.7 9670.2 9710.3 9746.7 9785.7 9820.9 9874.1 9927.8 9991.1 ######

durable goods

1242.4 1277.4 1260.2 1279.2 1287.8 1296.8 1317.1 1332.4 1355.6 1375.3 1387.4 1400.4 1404.1 1412.7 1422.6 1439.7 1455.2

furniture and appliances

267.0

269.3

271.4

271.8

274.3

276.2

279.3

281.8

285.1

287.9

289.8

291.4

292.7

293.0

293.0

292.9

293.0

information processing equipment

150.5

157.1

161.3

165.2

169.8

174.1

179.0

183.7

189.0

194.1

199.5

205.7

212.4

218.8

226.1

234.2

242.6

motor vehicles and parts

354.9

368.2

342.1

348.9

347.4

346.0

352.9

357.6

367.4

376.1

379.7

384.7

382.4

385.0

388.1

396.2

402.2

other durable goods

104.7

106.7

108.2

107.9

107.2

107.8

108.5

108.9

109.3

109.6

109.5

109.4

109.3

109.1

109.1

109.1

109.3

nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

2067.4 2075.4 2076.6 2061.4 2084.7 2094.6 2105.4 2116.5 2123.7 2131.2 2137.4 2143.5 2148.6 2154.6 2161.7 2169.6 2178.4 350.1

352.8

354.7

343.4

341.1

343.8

346.1

348.1

348.0

347.3

347.5

347.6

347.4

346.9

348.2

349.8

17.1

16.1

14.4

14.3

15.6

15.5

15.5

15.4

15.3

15.3

15.3

15.3

15.2

15.2

15.1

15.1

351.1 15.0

261.2

258.0

254.2

249.8

264.3

265.4

266.8

267.6

267.9

268.5

268.3

268.4

268.0

266.6

265.0

264.1

263.8

food

680.8

682.1

684.1

683.2

685.5

689.0

693.3

698.7

702.5

706.4

710.1

713.5

716.7

720.2

724.2

727.8

731.1

other nondurable goods

764.5

774.4

779.6

780.7

784.1

786.9

790.0

793.1

796.4

799.9

802.6

805.1

807.8

812.6

816.9

821.1

826.0

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services durable goods furniture and appliances

3.5

2.1

0.7

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.5

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.6

16.2

11.2

-5.4

6.0

2.7

2.8

6.3

4.6

7.0

5.8

3.5

3.7

1.1

2.4

2.8

4.8

4.3

8.6

3.5

3.0

0.6

3.6

2.8

4.5

3.6

4.6

4.0

2.7

2.2

1.8

0.4

0.0

-0.1

0.2

information processing equipment

13.0

17.7

10.7

9.5

11.2

10.1

11.4

10.4

11.5

10.7

11.3

12.5

12.9

12.0

13.5

14.3

14.3

motor vehicles and parts

32.8

15.0

-28.4

7.9

-1.8

-1.5

7.9

5.3

11.0

9.4

3.8

5.3

-2.4

2.7

3.2

8.4

6.0

2.6

7.9

5.6

-1.3

-2.3

2.2

2.7

1.3

1.6

0.8

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.8

-0.3

0.2

0.8 1.6

other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

4.2

1.5

0.2

-2.9

4.5

1.9

2.1

2.1

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

11.9

3.1

2.2

-12.7

-2.7

3.2

2.6

2.3

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

0.2

-0.3

-0.6

1.6

1.8

1.5

0.0

-23.1

-42.9

-1.4

35.9

-1.8

-1.3

-2.8

-2.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.3

-1.5

-1.5

-1.9

-1.0

-0.6 -0.4

-6.4

-5.0

-5.8

-7.0

23.2

1.7

2.1

1.3

0.4

0.9

-0.3

0.1

-0.6

-2.0

-2.4

-1.3

food

4.8

0.8

1.2

-0.6

1.4

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.0

1.8

other nondurable goods

5.2

5.3

2.7

0.6

1.8

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.3

1.3

1.3

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.4

gasoline & motor oil

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2000 Dollars)

Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2005 Dollars) History 2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

7804.1

8270.6

8803.5

9301.0

9772.3 10035.5

9866.1 10245.5

durable goods

1019.9

1072.9

1123.4

1155.0

1188.4

1108.9

1029.6

1085.5

1155.6

1188.6

1245.8

1286.3

231.8

247.0

261.3

271.5

271.3

257.9

235.3

243.8

251.5

259.6

269.2

274.1

50.4

59.4

67.0

75.3

86.1

84.9

83.0

91.3

95.8

98.1

100.9

105.3

401.1

403.9

408.2

394.8

399.9

339.3

316.5

340.1

373.3

380.4

411.8

432.9

85.4

92.9

99.5

109.9

118.8

117.9

111.0

116.9

127.0

131.1

135.0

138.0

1708.1

1819.3

1953.4

2069.8

2175.5

2272.8

2167.8

2301.5

2463.8

2530.1

2626.5

2730.2

286.2

298.7

314.0

327.3

335.4

330.9

318.2

334.3

347.2

352.1

357.4

364.5

16.7

17.9

20.0

20.6

21.8

25.9

20.3

22.7

24.9

24.0

24.7

25.3

furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

10703.7 11049.1 11453.1 11946.9

gasoline & motor oil

192.8

231.6

283.8

314.7

343.0

384.5

279.1

331.4

389.8

387.7

406.7

416.0

food

587.6

613.0

644.5

674.2

711.2

746.4

746.0

766.4

808.8

842.4

871.2

901.7

other nondurable goods

625.0

658.2

691.1

733.0

764.1

785.1

804.1

846.7

893.1

923.9

966.5

1022.7

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… 8244.5

8515.8

8803.5

9054.5

9262.9

9211.7

9037.5

9220.9

9415.9

9593.1

9765.9

9962.2

durable goods

989.1

1060.9

1123.4

1174.2

1232.4

1171.8

1108.3

1188.3

1276.1

1325.5

1391.8

1432.5

furniture and appliances

229.1

247.2

261.3

272.5

274.4

262.8

240.6

260.1

271.7

280.6

290.5

293.0

39.7

52.5

67.0

85.0

105.9

113.6

120.4

142.4

163.3

181.4

202.9

230.4

404.8

410.4

408.2

394.4

401.4

346.8

322.5

330.1

351.6

356.0

380.7

392.9

82.1

90.3

99.5

108.2

111.9

106.4

98.9

103.2

107.5

108.7

109.4

109.2

1840.7

1892.8

1953.4

2005.0

2042.9

2019.1

1983.4

2041.3

2074.5

2110.1

2140.2

2166.1

282.7

296.0

314.0

328.7

340.1

338.1

322.4

341.0

348.0

346.5

347.5

349.0

26.0

24.0

20.0

18.0

17.6

15.4

17.8

17.0

15.1

15.4

15.3

15.1

gasoline & motor oil

276.3

282.1

283.8

278.9

276.8

265.3

263.1

264.2

256.6

266.9

268.3

264.9

food

616.6

623.9

644.5

663.0

673.2

666.0

657.3

673.1

683.7

695.9

711.7

725.8

other nondurable goods

642.0

668.2

691.1

717.3

737.5

739.7

725.8

750.7

779.7

791.6

803.9

819.1

all goods & services

information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services durable goods furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods

3.4

3.3

2.8

3.2

1.7

-2.5

-0.2

3.0

1.5

2.1

1.6

2.4

10.1

5.9

3.1

7.1

4.6

-12.6

3.5

10.9

3.8

5.3

3.6

3.6

8.2

6.5

6.2

1.4

1.2

-9.2

-1.4

9.3

2.7

3.9

2.7

0.1

44.6

25.9

26.8

28.7

21.3

0.8

12.1

18.2

12.9

11.3

12.4

14.2

5.7

1.6

-6.8

5.8

0.6

-23.5

8.0

12.9

-0.8

5.9

4.2

5.2

15.3

6.7

10.8

5.8

4.1

-12.5

0.3

6.4

2.6

1.9

0.0

0.0

nondurables

3.6

2.7

3.1

2.9

0.8

-3.1

0.6

3.5

0.9

1.9

1.2

1.4

clothing & shoes

5.1

5.2

7.2

3.4

2.3

-3.8

-0.5

7.8

-2.4

2.0

-0.2

1.1

fuel oil & coal

1.3

-18.3

-18.2

3.5

-7.9

9.1

8.5

-3.0

-4.5

-2.1

-0.4

-1.2

gasoline & motor oil

4.8

0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-1.8

-4.0

-0.7

0.1

2.0

1.4

0.0

-1.5

food

0.3

2.5

3.6

2.9

0.8

-4.0

2.6

2.1

0.7

2.5

2.0

2.0

other nondurable goods

6.0

3.3

3.3

4.2

1.7

-1.2

-0.3

4.8

2.6

1.6

1.4

2.2

30

U.S. Forecast | October 2011


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 14. Business Fixed Investment

Table 14. Business Fixed Investment History

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions Current Dollars Business Fixed Investment

1135.7 1223.0 1347.3 1505.3 1637.5 1656.3 1353.0 1390.1

1531.8 1606.6 1715.3 1903.2

Producers Dur. Equipment

853.8

916.4

995.6 1071.7 1112.6 1070.0

903.0 1015.7

1120.0 1194.1 1287.3 1412.5

Nonresidential Structures

281.9

306.7

351.8

433.7

524.9

586.3

449.9

374.4

411.8

412.4

428.0

490.8

Non-Farm Buildings

182.1

196.7

212.9

247.6

297.3

322.0

253.9

174.8

165.6

176.5

197.2

250.5

Commercial

94.6

104.3

112.9

128.4

150.8

149.1

95.5

64.5

65.5

70.1

76.1

99.8

Industrial

21.4

23.7

29.9

35.1

43.7

57.4

61.2

40.8

37.0

40.2

45.8

58.0

Other Buildings

66.0

68.7

70.2

84.1

102.8

115.6

97.1

69.5

63.1

66.2

75.3

92.7

Utilities

53.5

48.6

51.4

61.1

85.6

99.5

98.6

89.4

98.0

92.3

88.9

96.5

Mines & Wells

38.4

51.9

77.1

114.2

130.9

151.7

87.9

100.9

138.3

133.9

132.3

132.4

Billions 2005 Dollars Business Fixed Investment

1189.6 1263.0 1347.3 1455.5 1549.9 1537.7 1263.2 1319.2

1434.6 1501.3 1590.2 1734.4

Producers Dur. Equipment

850.0

917.3

995.6 1071.1 1106.8 1059.4

889.7 1019.4

Nonresidential Structures

343.0

346.7

351.8

466.4

367.3

309.1

326.2

322.4

330.5

367.7

384.0

438.2

1120.9 1197.4 1282.4 1389.3

Non-Farm Buildings

210.0

213.9

212.9

229.2

260.5

272.0

214.1

151.8

141.5

145.9

155.7

188.2

Commercial

110.3

114.4

112.9

118.4

131.2

124.5

78.4

54.4

54.2

56.2

58.3

72.7

Industrial

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.6

50.8

34.6

31.0

32.5

35.3

42.6

Other Buildings

75.4

74.1

70.2

77.9

90.3

99.3

85.7

63.5

56.7

57.6

62.6

73.3

Utilities

61.3

52.1

51.4

56.2

75.6

82.5

82.4

71.9

75.1

70.3

66.8

70.4

Mines & Wells

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

101.5

65.8

76.7

97.4

94.9

97.3

97.6

Business Fixed Investment

6.2

9.5

8.4

11.7

9.0

-5.8

-16.7

11.1

10.2

2.3

9.5

11.0

Producers Dur. Equipment

6.7

8.5

6.3

6.9

3.5

-11.2

-5.9

15.3

9.7

5.7

9.0

9.3

Nonresidential Structures

4.8

12.6

14.9

25.2

22.0

5.1

-34.4

2.1

12.4

-6.7

10.9

16.0

Annual Growth Rate

Non-Farm Buildings

3.8

10.8

7.3

18.7

22.6

-0.1

-33.7

-21.8

9.0

1.4

21.8

27.5

Commercial

4.3

9.3

10.0

15.3

17.3

-11.8

-44.7

-17.3

13.4

0.5

18.0

37.0

Industrial

9.1

30.4

13.8

16.1

46.6

23.0

-12.0

-32.4

17.7

0.5

29.5

20.3

Other Buildings

2.5

9.2

1.7

26.0

22.6

6.7

-29.7

-18.7

0.7

2.9

21.7

22.6

Utilities

-3.7

5.5

3.8

23.9

54.9

0.8

-4.1

15.4

1.6

-12.0

2.4

11.1

Mines & Wells

29.4

38.0

51.3

50.0

4.8

24.1

-45.1

62.1

28.0

-12.8

2.5

0.7

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures History

Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1885.1

2014.0

2290.1

2524.5

2654.7

2502.3

2232.5

2429.6

2559.1

2733.7

3052.1

3324.1

Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts

774.2

799.2

931.9

1049.9

1165.6

1101.3

856.6

896.4

1070.8

1163.4

1331.8

1456.6

Corp. Profits Tax Accruals

197.8

250.3

341.0

395.0

362.8

233.6

201.7

329.6

339.4

382.7

453.2

497.6

Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures Receipts

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Expenditures

89.3

94.3

98.8

99.4

94.5

94.0

97.3

101.5

108.5

109.7

117.1

135.7

762.8

807.6

852.6

904.6

945.3

973.1

948.9

970.9

906.1

949.8

1024.0

1103.3

2261.5

2393.4

2573.1

2728.3

2900.0

3115.7

3450.4

3703.3

3764.2

3768.9

3818.7

3988.9

Purchases Goods & Services

756.5

824.7

876.3

931.7

976.4

1080.1

1142.7

1222.9

1234.2

1219.9

1195.4

1184.4

National Defense

498.0

550.8

589.1

624.9

662.3

737.8

774.9

819.2

829.3

814.7

794.5

785.8

Other

258.6

273.9

287.3

306.9

314.1

342.3

367.8

403.7

405.0

405.2

400.9

398.6

1339.4

1405.1

1491.3

1587.1

1690.5

1841.9

2153.6

2313.7

2310.4

2348.6

2420.2

2561.9

962.6

1014.3

1078.0

1180.7

1254.2

1385.7

1601.8

1708.3

1741.8

1804.1

1866.7

1945.7

28.6

30.9

40.9

35.0

42.2

45.3

53.3

57.3

58.4

57.9

59.6

60.6

Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

395.5

482.4

531.5

493.4

469.3

476.3

537.6

Net Interest

196.5

204.6

239.0

261.0

291.0

272.1

227.5

250.0

288.5

271.1

272.5

309.3

45.3

45.7

64.1

53.9

50.2

53.6

62.7

60.6

61.2

52.2

48.4

47.6

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-376.4

-379.5

-283.0

-203.8

-245.2

-1205.2 -1035.2

-766.6

-664.8

Receipts

1496.3

1601.0

1730.5

1829.7

1923.1

1944.8

1953.6

2064.7

2091.3

2121.1

2204.4

2344.0

Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts

977.7

1059.4

1163.1

1249.1

1313.6

1326.4

1252.8

1307.9

1369.2

1410.2

1472.0

1535.6

Corporate Profits

226.2

248.6

276.7

302.5

323.1

334.4

284.8

297.5

326.7

336.6

352.1

370.4

34.0

41.7

55.0

59.1

57.8

47.4

47.4

57.9

52.0

55.9

64.4

70.2

Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners

Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities

-613.5 -1217.9 -1273.7

State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services Government Social Benefits

20.1

24.1

24.8

21.8

18.9

19.0

20.2

20.8

21.6

22.3

23.4

24.7

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

395.5

482.4

531.5

493.4

469.3

476.3

537.6

1535.13 1609.33 1704.50 1778.63 1910.83 2017.05 2031.70 2090.00 1356.1

1408.2

1493.6

1586.7

1697.9

1798.0

1774.8

1780.0

2150.96 2165.65 2226.76 2349.89 1792.2

1774.0

1797.2

1850.6

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

456.7

498.1

534.6

564.6

591.3

631.6

715.8

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

456.7

498.1

534.6

564.6

591.3

631.6

715.8

Interest Received

20.6

19.0

10.9

2.1

0.5

16.2

28.0

35.4

40.9

38.9

38.0

32.4

Net Subsidies

-3.2

-0.6

0.3

1.7

16.2

15.3

11.9

12.4

13.5

11.5

9.5

8.4

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

Transfer Payments

Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

32

U.S. Forecast | October 2011

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-38.8

-8.4

26.0

51.0

12.2

-72.3

-78.1

-25.3

-59.7

-44.6

-22.3

-5.9


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services

Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services History 2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions of Dollars Net Exports Goods & Services

-504.1

-618.7

-722.7

-769.3

-713.1

-709.8

-391.5

-516.9

-546.8

-499.7

-494.7

-451.8

Current Account

-519.1

-628.5

-745.8

-800.6

-710.3

-677.1

-376.6

-470.9

-426.8

-385.2

-374.3

-380.9

Exports -Goods & Services

1041.0

1180.2

1305.1

1471.1

1661.7

1846.8

1583.1

1839.8

2087.3

2181.6

2389.1

2664.2

Merchandise Balance

-540.4

-663.5

-780.7

-835.7

-818.9

-830.1

-505.9

-645.9

-713.9

-667.0

-681.8

-665.0

Food, Feed & Beverage

55.03

56.55

58.95

65.98

84.28

108.33

93.93

107.73

126.39

123.05

126.17

131.18

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

168.3

199.5

227.5

267.3

316.2

386.9

293.8

388.7

476.2

477.0

513.8

562.2

80.7

89.2

98.4

107.3

121.3

121.5

81.7

112.0

134.8

147.2

163.7

187.5

293.7

327.6

358.4

404.1

433.0

457.7

390.5

446.6

497.3

539.5

614.5

714.8

Motor Vehicles & Parts Capital Goods, Excl. MVP

39.9

42.8

45.5

47.6

45.6

43.9

37.7

43.9

49.1

52.8

63.1

74.3

207.1

238.7

257.0

291.9

314.5

339.8

278.0

330.8

367.2

392.0

445.8

520.9

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

89.9

103.3

115.3

129.1

146.0

161.3

150.0

165.9

174.0

186.8

211.2

239.5

Other Consumer

39.4

41.0

47.5

50.8

61.3

61.8

54.8

56.9

63.0

63.7

68.8

74.8

314.2

363.2

399.0

446.6

499.7

549.3

518.4

562.0

615.6

644.4

691.1

754.2

Imports -Goods & Services

1545.2

1798.9

2027.8

2240.4

2374.8

2556.5

1974.6

2356.7

2634.2

2681.3

2883.8

3116.0

Merchandise

1289.3

1501.7

1708.0

1884.9

2000.7

2146.3

1587.3

1947.3

2205.7

2224.8

2400.3

2594.8

55.8

62.1

68.1

75.0

81.7

90.4

82.9

92.5

107.3

108.4

113.8

119.7

Computer Equipment Other

Services

Billions of Dollars

Food, Feed & Beverage Petroleum & Products

133.1

180.5

251.9

302.5

346.7

476.1

267.7

353.7

432.5

393.0

408.7

432.5

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

175.7

226.4

266.0

291.4

295.7

318.9

197.1

250.4

295.6

280.8

315.0

357.4

Motor Vehicles & Parts

210.1

228.2

239.5

256.6

256.6

233.2

159.2

225.6

252.3

270.3

294.8

321.6

Capital Goods, Excl. MVP

296.4

344.5

380.8

420.0

446.0

458.7

372.7

450.0

513.9

539.9

582.6

643.0

76.5

88.6

93.3

101.4

105.2

101.2

94.2

117.3

120.8

127.9

136.7

147.4

Other

195.8

231.6

261.7

290.2

306.5

322.0

247.8

301.5

358.6

373.9

404.7

449.8

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

337.7

377.2

411.5

446.1

478.2

486.7

432.5

486.6

519.8

544.8

593.5

622.0

80.5

82.9

90.3

93.5

95.9

82.3

75.4

88.6

84.3

87.7

91.9

98.8

255.9

297.3

319.8

355.4

374.0

410.1

387.3

409.4

428.5

456.5

483.5

521.2

Computer Equipment

Other Consumer Services

Billions 2005 Dollars Net Exports Goods & Services

-603.7

-687.9

-722.7

-729.4

-648.8

-494.8

-358.8

-421.8

-406.7

-381.6

-313.3

-217.4

Exports G & S

1116.0

1222.6

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1649.3

1494.0

1663.2

1775.1

1845.3

1994.9

2188.3

Imports G & S

1719.7

1910.4

2027.8

2151.5

2203.3

2144.0

1852.9

2085.0

2181.8

2226.9

2308.2

2405.7

Exports G & S

9.0

11.7

10.3

14.0

14.6

9.9

5.6

10.9

11.6

Exports & Imports % Change 0.5

3.0

13.9

Imports G & S

8.0

19.1

12.1

5.4

9.0

-1.7

0.4

14.2

8.1

5.8

7.4

8.2

Real Exports G & S

6.6

7.2

6.8

10.5

10.1

-1.7

2.0

8.8

4.8

4.9

9.4

9.7

Real Imports G & S

5.4

11.0

5.3

4.2

0.9

-5.7

-3.9

11.0

2.8

3.2

3.7

4.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ai t h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u


U.S. Forecast October 2011  

U.S. Forecast October 2011

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