k e e p i n g
BUSINESS JOURNAL
b u s i n e s s e s
c o n n e c t e d ™
JUNE 2019
VOLUME 4 ■ ISSUE 6
NEWS
Just under two years after its construction began, the Ten Pin Fun Center in Turlock opened its doors in May. PAGE 5
NEWS
Los Banos is undergoing a revitalization of its downtown area and is hoping to draw both residents and passersby to the historic district. PAGE 8
VALLEY BUSINESS FORECAST
Slowing of economic activity sign of stability
Wages struggle to keep up with inflation BY ANGELINA MARTIN
A
209 Business Journal
fter the economy both nationwide and in the Central Valley reached its peak in recent years, a slowdown of economic activity displayed in the most recent San Joaquin Valley Business Forecast released in May shows a region that has recovered from the Great Recession. Stanislaus State produces the business forecast twice a year, providing businesses with detailed information about trends in the region relative to those in the state and nation. The report not only helps minimize uncertainty surrounding these economic indicators, but also generates market consensus on a regional basis helping businesses, investors and consumers make better-informed decisions. Foster Farms Endowed Professor of Business Economics Gökçe Soydemir has been the lead author of the report since 2011, and said that the state of the Valley’s economy continues to slow after years of expansion following the recession. “When we started doing the business forecast, the economy was still in a recessionary phase and many people were wondering if we were going to get out of it. We looked at the numbers and saw indications of improvement, but many people skeptical,” Soydemir said. “We struggled to convince people because they were
very pessimistic, and when months passed by it became evident that the Valley was getting out of the recession here, and it’s been gradually growing since. “Right now, the economy has peaked and growth has started to slow down. But, we’re not talking about worsening of employment — numbers are just showing that the pace of growth is slowing.” Many factors throughout the Valley contribute to the slowing down of economic growth, like higher unemployment rates than the rest of the state and country, a higher ratio of unskilled-to-skilled workers and lower educational attainment levels. The recent slowdown is manifesting at different rates among the region’s key employment categories; education and health services employment growth declined from 4.79 percent to 2.96 percent in 2018, while manufacturing employment growth fell from 0.52 percent to 0.25 percent. Leisure and hospitality services as well as retail trade employment growth both slowed as well. This doesn’t mean that people in the Valley aren’t being hired, Soydemir explained, stating that many of these categories are still seeing new hires by the hundreds — just less than before. “It’s growing, but just at a slower rate. That’s normal for regularly occurring business cycles in the economy,”
San Joaquin Valley Business Forecast he said. “People shouldn’t panic. You don’t want an economy to overheat, either, because then that will cause more problems in the future to tame the economic inflation.” Where some employment categories have cooled off,
others are still growing, the forecast revealed. The Valley’s rich agriculture trade contributed to an employment growth of just over one percent, and construction job growth increased from 5.32 percent to 7.67 percent. SEE VALLEY, PAGE 9