CROP AND MARKET PREDICTIONS Compiled by Suz Trusty Each year, Turf News invites suppliers to provide their input on the turfgrass seed and/or vegetative stock crop and market outlook based on: Their assessment of the impact of weather conditions on crops to-date and on the anticipated impact of weather conditions predicted in their area; Trends they are seeing in their market; The production they are anticipating in terms of quality and quantity; And their assessment of anticipated pricing for those crops as: stable, higher or lower. Industry comments for the seed and vegetative stock crop outlook were provided from mid-May to the end of May. Please note that weather conditions can impact final yields, and that seed harvests in July and August may differ from the forecasts shared here. In addition, there are multiple factors, other than weather conditions, that impact the crop and the overall market within the sod industry. Turf News welcomed input from your seed and vegetative stock sources on these factors as well. Though no one can accurately predict the future, these industry perspectives provide insights into the outlook for these valuable crops. Turf News thanks all those who provided the information for this article. That input is arranged in alphabetical order, by the respondent’s company name. Note: In the fall of 2020 Barenbrug USA purchased Jacklin Seed Company. While you may see various branded products carry the Jacklin name in the market today, these brands are produced and managed under Barenbrug USA as part of an overarching portfolio of unique turfgrass genetics.
BARENBRUG USA Provided by David Johnson, Director of Production Weather extremes are going to affect crop yields in many production areas this year. The Pacific Northwest region has had one of the driest springs on record. According to the website Drought.gov, “Statewide total March and April precipitation ranks as the driest on record for Idaho, second driest for Oregon, third driest for Montana, and fourth driest for Washington since 1895.” One positive from the dry spring weather is that it has been good for chemical application timing, and fields are looking clean going into harvest. Kentucky Bluegrass: The dry spring is impacting the nonirrigated Kentucky bluegrass yields in the north-central area of Idaho. We finally saw some rain in late May, but it could be too little too late. With inadequate moisture we are predicting below average yields for dryland produced varieties. Irrigated production areas in the Columbia Basin region of Washington and Oregon are in better shape than the dryland areas, but extreme temperature fluctuations are affecting plant development. We expect average yields for most varieties grown in the irrigated production areas. Perennial Ryegrass: Drought in the Oregon production area is a concern for perennial ryegrass yields, but recent rains have given us hope for improving yields. The impact will not be completely known until further into harvest; it’s up to the plants to determine if it’s too little too late. Tall fescue: The primary concern with tall fescue is vole-damage in the South Valley, which could have some 24
impact on yields. This is also a problem on some perennial ryegrass fields, but new rodent chemistry might be improving the situation. Market Outlook: We are seeing a grower trend away from elite-type Kentucky bluegrasses. Growers are looking for big yield numbers to incentivize them to place acreage in Kentucky bluegrass, and they are pushing for higher prices on lower-yielding varieties. Fertilizer and commodity prices are also trending up, which means there will be competition for acres. As a whole, corn prices are high, wheat prices are high, and fertilizer costs are high. This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on production to place acres for turfgrass varieties, but it will also help to clean up some of the inventory issues on dryland varieties. The continuing story on perennial ryegrass is that inventory is extremely short, and everyone still wants it. In addition to short inventory, growers are moving away from perennial ryegrass production to tall fescue. Tall fescue is easier to produce and has better stand longevity. Fields can remain in for seven to ten years for tall fescue versus two years for most perennial ryegrasses. We also anticipate prices on tall fescue to move up a little as customers look for something to replace the shortfall on perennial ryegrass. Barenbrug gained some excellent field representatives with the acquisition of Jacklin Seed last fall. Our combined production team is unique with field reps working closely with growers in every growing region Being in the field every day with growers means our reps can identify issues with the farmers before they become serious problems. TPI Turf News July/August 2021
