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The Moorabool News – 5 April, 2022 Page 33
THE 2022 BFNL SEASON DRAW The winners and losers ...
Local footy writer Todd Whelan ranks the 2022 BFNL draw easiest to hardest. 7. East Point - 105
10. Ballarat - 109
Play TWICE: Melton, Lake Wendouree, North Ballarat City, Darley, Sebastopol, Ballarat.
Play TWICE: Lake Wendouree, Redan, East Point, Sunbury, Sebastopol, North Ballarat City.
Travel EAST: FOUR times - Melton South (Rd5), Melton (Rd8), Sunbury (Rd10), Darley (Rd15)
Trave EAST: THREE times: Bacchus Marsh (Rd1), Darley (Rd7), Sunbury (Rd11).
EAST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P10 W5 L5 @50% WIN - #1 PROS: TWO handy HOME block of games in first half of season - (HOME opening TWO games after Rd 1 BYE - then - HOME 3 out 4 weeks Rd6 - Rd9) - Play back-to-back games against top 6 opposition from 2021 only Rd12-Rd14. CONS: Play FOUR of top 6 2021 TWICE - (Sebastopol, Melton, Ballarat, North Ballarat City) - Tough FIVE week stretch Rd12 - Rd16 - includes FOUR AWAY games - Play all 16 games in a row - top (Rd1) and tail (Rd18) bye rounds. Comment: Same rated draw as last year (105) when they finished third. Too classy to miss finals and will start one of the favorites again in 2022 despite departures Joel Ottavi, Jake McQueen, Jack Ganley and Billy Jones. 8. Melton South - 108 Play TWICE: Melton, Redan, Sunbury, Darley, East Point, Bacchus Marsh Travel WEST: FOUR times - Ballarat (Rd2), Lake Wendouree (Rd9), East Point (Rd17), Redan (Rd18) WEST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P12 W0 L12 @0% WIN - #11 PROS: HIGHWAY TRAVEL just ONCE RD3- Rd16 (Lake Wendouree Rd9) - Meet only THREE of top 6 from 2021 TWICE (Melton, Sunbury, East Point) - SIX of their first 10 games at HOME inc FOUR visits from Ballarat teams. - AWAY just ONCE Rd7-Rd11 (Lake Wendouree Rd9) CONS:
WEST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P9 W1 L8 @11% WIN - #10 PROS: HIGHWAY TRAVEL (EAST) just ONCE after Rd7. - Leave HOME only ONCE between Rd8 - Rd13 (Sunbury Rd11) CONS: Play FOUR of Top 6 from 2021 TWICE - FIVE of opening SEVEN games AWAY - SIX of last EIGHT games against top 6 teams from 2021 Comment: The Swans will need to be better again in 2022 to play finals. While they finished 5th at the end of an abbreviated 2021, they were among a group of five teams down to as low as 8th, separated by percentage. In fairness, injury did the Swans no favours and will need Josh Gibson, Andrew Hooper and new addition Aiden Domic on the park in ‘22, to overcome a challenging draw. 11. Lake Wendouree - 114 Play TWICE: Ballarat, Sebastopol, East Point, Redan, Melton, Sunbury Travel EAST: FOUR times: Sunbury (Rd6), Darley (Rd10), Bacchus Marsh (Rd11), Melton (Rd18) EAST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P11 W2 L9 @18% WIN - #9 PROS: AWAY just ONCE opening FIVE rounds - (East Point Rd3) CONS:
Last TWO games involve HIGHWAY TRAVEL (East Point Rd17, Redan Rd18)
Play FIVE of Top 6 from 2021 TWICE
- ‘AWAY’ FOUR of last SIX matches Rd12-Rd18 inc. Darley Rd12 (a), Melton Rd14(a), Bye Rd16, East Point Rd17 (a), Redan Rd18 (a)
- HORROR run Rd2 - Rd8 - Play ALL Top 6 from 2021 - FIVE of the Lakers last SIX games against Top 6 from 2021
Comment: The Panthers will be happy they’ve just four trips to Ballarat this year, they’ve had little luck with highway travel and the frequency of it over recent times (0-12 since 2019). Must be in touch after round 11 - ahead or square with ‘win/loss’. Chasing too many ‘away’ wins in the second half of the draw idles in the ‘too hard basket’ and must be avoided if Heath Pritchard’s crew fancy any thoughts of a finals spot.
Comment: The Lakers should consider offering new coach Jack Fitpatrick a ten year deal if he can lead the club into finals this year. The formula says the Lakers have clearly the toughest draw of all.
9. Darley - 108 Play TWICE: North Ballarat City, East Point, Sunbury, Redan, Bacchus Marsh, Melton South Travel WEST: FOUR times: Sebastopol (Rd1), Redan (Rd6), East Point (Rd9), North Ballarat City (Rd11) WEST ‘highway travel’ record (last two home and away seasons): P14 W5 L9 @36% WIN - #4. PROS: NO ‘HIGHWAY TRAVEL’ (to Ballarat) after Rd 11. - FOUR of last SIX GAMES are at HOME. CONS:
The Wash-Up - Easiest To Hardest 2022 Draw Outcome determined by 2018-2021 numbers, projected improvement, this year’s travel and who you play twice. 1. SUNBURY 95 (48 first half draw / 47 second half draw) 2. REDAN 100 (51,49) 3. SEBASTOPOL 101 (48,53) 4. BACCHUS MARSH 102 (55,47) 5. NORTH BALLARAT CITY 102 (53,49) 6. MELTON 105 (51,54) 7. EAST POINT 105 (51,54) 8. MELTON SOUTH 108 (53,55) 9. DARLEY 108 (54,54) 10. BALLARAT 109 (49,60) 11. LAKE WENDOUREE 114 (58,56)
FOUR of FIRST SIX games are AWAY (includes TWO games in Ballarat) - MEET FIVE of top 6 from 2021 AWAY (Sebastopol Rd1, Melton Rd4, East Point Rd9, North Ballarat City Rd11, Sunbury Rd13) -TOUGH ‘ODD’ RUN - MEET either North Ballarat City, Sunbury or East Point every second week from Rd9 - (East Point Rd9, North Ballarat City Rd11, Sunbury Rd13, East Point Rd15, Bye Rd17, North Ballarat City Rd18) Comment:- According to the formula, Darley face a much more difficult draw in 2022 despite a winless 2021 (98 pt draw rating). Only Ballarat and the Lakers face greater degrees of difficulty. Despite the addition of some top end talent and projected improvement of youth, the Devils are coming from a fair way back. A finals berth for the Black and White would be a significant achievement.
SEASON END 2021 ladder (after Rd11) 1. North Ballarat City 2. Melton 3. East Point 4. Sebastopol 5. Ballarat 6. Sunbury
7. Bacchus Marsh 8. Redan 9. Lake Wendouree 10. Melton South 11. Darley