May 7 2020

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VOLUME 138, ISSUE 26 | THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2020

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF COVID-19 MAY LAST UP TO FOUR DECADES

Study on effects of past pandemics provides insight into post-COVID-19 economy A new study by UC Davis is currently investigating how tracking social media “sick posts” could help public health officials get a head start on identifying and responding to emerging disease outbreaks. (Photo Courtesy of Photo Mix / Pixabay)

SOCIAL MEDIA CAN PREDICT CASE COUNT OF COVID-19 AHEAD OF OFFICIAL REPORTS

Online posts give researchers

insight on people with COVID-19 symptoms

BY MI CHELLE WONG science@theaggie.org

Writing on a window at Philz Coffee in Davis lists rules for patrons to follow when coming in to pick up their mobile orders. (Photo by Quinn Spooner / Aggie)

BY A L M A M EC KLE R - PAC H E CO science@theaggie.org The novel coronavirus pandemic is affecting nearly every aspect of life in the U.S., shutting down businesses and forcing people throughout the country to shelter in their homes. Many hope for an end in sight to the disruptions caused by the pandemic, especially for the economy, but a study conducted by UC Davis economists Òscar Jordà, Sanjay Singh and Alan M. Taylor indicates long-term changes. Through analyzing the long-term effects of 12 pandemics, starting in the 14th Century, the study sought to understand the commonalities across the economic impacts of these pandemics. The data, collected by economic historians, measured the economic performance of cities, regions and countries. “We found recently available data sets that go back to the 14th Century just before the Black Plague and they stretch up to now,” Singh said. “We were able to use those data sets that have a lot of information and contain information on returns of investments.” Noticing a lack of research focused on multiple pandemics and their long-term effects, the researchers felt that a long-term analysis would be beneficial to better understand the economic impact of pandemics. “A lot of work has looked at a single pandemic, and they have investigated how people have

reacted and how policy has changed for a single pandemic, but are at most up to five years after the pandemic,” Singh said. Given the current pandemic, this research helps predict what can be expected for the economy in the decades following the coronavirus. One of the key findings was the change in the real rate of return, or the annual percentage of profit earned on investments, adjusted for inflation. Their study discovered that the real rate of return fell during pandemics and continued to fall until it reached its lowest point after 20 years. Four decades after each pandemic, the real rate of return went back to its natural rate. The observed drop in the real rate of return is linked to changes in consumer behavior after a pandemic. “Due to loss of savings, people will want to increase their savings and will want to be more risk-averse,” Singh said. “That would mean there is excess saving in the economy relative to people demanding them, which causes the returns to fall.” This finding gives important insight into the role of the government during pandemics. Due to the decrease in real rate of return, there is fiscal space, which the World Health Organization defines as “the budgetary room that allows a government to provide resources for public purposes without undermining fiscal sustainability.” “An implication of our study is that the government has this extra fiscal space,” Singh said.

“So if the government borrows a lot right now to tackle this pandemic, and our analysis shows that pandemics result in a decline in interest rate, the government will not have to pay as high interest rates.” This is a key lesson that can guide the government’s actions to fight the pandemic. An increase in government spending will not hurt the economy due to the predicted decrease in real rate of returns. Additionally, without government spending, the coronavirus could result in even more economic damage. It will be necessary for the government to provide support to deal with this emergency, according to Economics Professor Alan M. Taylor. “While people cannot work due to lockdowns, the government is trying to keep businesses and households from collapsing in the short run, since a cascade of bankruptcies could be very economically damaging, as many viable firms could be destroyed without replacement,” Taylor said via email. Economics Professor Chrisptoher Meissner agrees, saying he believes governments actively working to control the coronavirus will end up helping the economy after the pandemic. “The policy we take in terms of protecting the population is not going to harm the economy in the long run,” Meissner said. “Places that take more action now to save public health may even do better to come out of this all.”

YOLO COUNTY IS STATE LEADER IN SHELTERING HOMELESS DURING PANDEMIC County’s homeless outreach efforts during social distancing provide model for rest of state, official says

M A RIO R O D R I G UE Z / AGGI E

TIM LA LO N D E city@theaggie.org Yolo County is “punching above its weight class” when it comes to sheltering the homeless population under Gov. Newsom’s Project Roomkey plan, according to Davis Homeless Outreach Coordinator Ryan Collins. Collins delivered a report at the Yolo Board of Supervisors’ April 14 meeting, detailing the successes and challenges of the county’s homeless outreach efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Collins told the Board that Yolo was currently sheltering a much higher percentage of its homeless population compared to other California counties. “At the time of its announcement, I think approximately 870 individuals were sheltered individually statewide as a part of Project Roomkey, and Yolo had 110 of them,” Collins said. “I think that number is closer to 180 today. For a county

of about 220,000 people in a state of 20 million people, that makes Yolo County punching about 25 times above its weight class in this effort.” Project Roomkey is a state initiative seeking to shelter homeless individuals in local hotel and motel rooms while shelter-in-place orders remain in effect. Project Roomkey intends to prioritize the “medically vulnerable” among California homeless populations — homeless individuals over the age of 65 or with underlying health conditions — as well those who have been exposed to COVID-19, but do not require medical attention, according to an April press release from the governor’s office. The goal of the program is three-fold, according to the release: protecting a vulnerable population from infection, reducing the density of individuals in homeless shelters and easing pressure on local hospitals during the pandemic. “Homeless Californians are incredibly vulnerable to COVID-19 and often have no option to self-isolate or social distance,” Newsom said in the

release. “By helping the most vulnerable homeless individuals off the street and into isolation, California can slow the spread of COVID-19 through homeless populations, lower the number of people infected and protect critical health care resources.” Collins told the Board that part of Yolo’s success under Project Roomkey was due, in part, to a head start — the county had enacted similar programs before and had served as a model for other counties’ efforts. Collins pointed to Yolo’s “Bridge to Housing” program, which sheltered 65 homeless individuals from West Sacramento in 2014, according to a county report. “[Project Roomkey] is similar to what we did with Bridge to Housing in 2014, 2015,” Collins said. “So I think we had some of our playbook written, and that helped us get into a lead on this.” There are daily deliveries from local food banks to the motels around Yolo where participants are sheltered, Collins said, as well as CalFresh eligibility workers available to help enroll those sheltered. Healthcare workers from Communicare are providing in-person visits for individuals with high levels of medical needs. Yolo’s Project Roomkey initiative has been working well, in part because of a dedicated on-site staff that offers supportive services and outlines expectations for participants. Collins said. “We are deploying on-site staffing teams at the motels,” Collins said. “So it’s not ‘Hey, here’s your roomkey, good luck, do whatever.’ It’s ‘Hey, here’s your roomkey, here’s some information on how this is going to work right now.’” Collins indicated that while leasing motel rooms might be cost-prohibitive to continue after the pandemic, the success of Project Roomkey might provide a model for future support and outreach services for the county’s homeless population.

HOMELESSHOUSING on 11

Defined as social media posts clearly mentioning symptoms or diagnoses of COVID-19, “sick posts” on the Chinese social media site Weibo are able to predict the daily number of COVID-19 cases up to a week ahead of official statistics, according to a study conducted by UC Davis faculty in the department of communication. Wang Liao, an assistant communications professor, explained that this study utilizes people’s tendencies to seek help in uncertain situations in order to make sense of the public’s use of social media in pandemic conditions. “We need to communicate,” Liao said. “We shout out and scream when there is uncertainty or risk in the environment. That kind of instinct or human nature is probably the very reason behind this kind of study or why it would work.” Since this is a novel virus, there is no current system in place efficient enough to collect true signals from the population regarding who is infected with the virus, according to Jingwen Zhang, an assistant professor in the Department of Communication. The only way to determine who is infected is if the patient decides to report symptoms to a local clinic or hospital — which already causes a delay, as patients have likely been experiencing symptoms prior to their visits. Early on, China did not allow doctors to inform patients infected with COVID-19 about their conditions, which led to widespread uncertainty about why people were getting sick, Zhang explained. This controversial move spurred much activity on Chinese social media, with users expressing concerns and seeking help. Although this is not the first study to use social media for disease surveillance and prediction, what differentiates this research is isolating true signals of disease by sifting through noise on social media, Liao said. Rather than relying on keyword searches, which would include posts about COVID-19 in general, the team focused on posts that included specific diagnoses and symptoms which then served as better indicators for predicting daily cases. According to both Zhang and Liao, because of the noise prevalent on social media and the multitude of people contributing to the platform, people should be mindful of the information they consume. Zhang recommends relying on the accounts of familiar organizations for accurate information. “Social media is where people find information and misinformation, where people seek and receive support, where people connect with their friends and family, where government and health authorities can effectively communicate with their constituents about preventive measures and public policy, and where scientists and public health agencies can find data to inform their response efforts,” said Cuihan Shen, an assistant professor in the Department of Communication, via email. Although its study focused on a social media platform in China, the team believes that this epidemic surveillance modeling would prove to be similar with American social media platforms, such as Twitter, but with a few differences. Zhang expects there to be some cultural variations, as Eastern Asian cultures may be more reluctant to talk about diseases and death on a public platform compared to Western cultures. Liao also said the differences in the trajectory of the pandemic in China and the U.S. may contribute to variations in the predictive power of social media. The team will be exploring how topics discussed online evolve with the timeline of the pandemic and different forms of misinformation in the next steps of its research. “Fundamentally, it’s about human psychology, disclosing your problems to others,” Liao said. “We’re social animals and we look for help when we are in trouble and we communicate those helping messages to others. Because of that kind of fundamental human motivation, I would say that the pattern we found in Chinese social media would apply and also be found in social media in the United States.”


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