As we move through the final quarter of 2025, food markets display both signs of resilience and symptoms of struggle. Certain categories are showing greater stability, supported by seasonal demand and improving supply dynamics, while others remain under pressure from elevated costs, restricted availability, and policy shifts at both European and global level.
In the dairy category, milk and cheese are steadying on the back of strong farmgate returns and robust export demand, though butter and eggs remain cost-sensitive amid supply disruptions and regulatory pressures.
The aroma of uncertainty lingers over the beverage sector, where coffee and cocoa continue to trade in volatile territory, influenced by tariffs, weather conditions, and compliance requirements.
Protein markets remain the most unsettled. Beef, lamb, and pork are all experiencing tighter availability, while poultry and cooked meats are constrained by disease outbreaks, higher welfare standards, and rising operational costs. Seafood remains particularly challenged, with quota reductions, erratic landings, and high demand across cod, hake, haddock, and Mediterranean species keeping prices firm.
This report tracks and analyses the latest developments across all key categories, helping you to navigate shifting market conditions with clarity. As ever, our team is available to support you with insight, product alternatives, and tailored sourcing solutions to meet your needs.
Warm regards, Sysco Ireland
04
YOUR SPECIALIST FOODSERVICE TEAM
Centre of Plate | Produce | Bakery & Dessert
Catering Supplies & Beverage
06
PROTEIN
Beef | Pork | Lamb | Poultry
12
COOKED MEATS
Cooked Meats
14
SEAFOOD
Salmon | Cod | Hake | Haddock
Bass & Bream | Prawns
18
DAIRY
Cheese | Eggs | Milk | Butter
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CANNED + DRIED
Soybean Oil | Sunflower Oil
24
BEVERAGE + IMPULSE
Coffee | Sugar | Cocoa
28
FROZEN FRUIT & VEGETABLES
Frozen Fruit | Frozen Veg
YOUR SPECIALIST FOODSERVICE TEAM
The global food market can be unpredictable, but your supply doesn’t have to be. Our specialist team is here to help you stay stocked with quality options that fit your budget. Whether it’s discovering new products, exploring different price tiers, or finding the best value, we’ve got solutions for you. Talk to your ASM to arrange a meeting.
Centre of Plate
MICHAEL JOYCE
Mick has been in the industry for over 30 years. He is a qualified master butcher and provides his customers with expert information to add value to their business.
Centre of Plate
NEIL BRISLANE
Neil has been part of the Sysco team for over 20 years, with the last decade dedicated to Centre of Plate. His deep knowledge helps customers make informed decisions, adding real value to their business.
Centre of Plate
PHILL WARING
Phill joined the business in 2023 after 18 years working as a Chef. His roles were primarily in Fine Dining establishments throughout Northern Ireland, but he also spent time in Australia.
Produce
NOEL RYAN
Noel joined Sysco in 2022, however with 35 years in the produce business he brings a wealth of experience to his role. Noel’s belief in Sysco’s customer centric values plays an important role in how he does his job.
Produce
ALASDAIR MacINNES
Alasdair joined the business over 20 years ago, following 25 years as a chef working in busy restaurants. He began his career with Sysco in purchasing before moving to a produce specialist role.
Produce
RUTH POLLOCK
Ruth joined Sysco in 2024 and has over 20 years’ experience within fresh produce. Ruth enjoys working in partnership with her customers to come up with the best solution for their business.
Centre of Plate
KELAN McMICHAEL
Kelan has worked in the industry as a chef for over 25 years, in some of the finest kitchens in the UK and Ireland. He was honoured to be part of a team that cooked in the Hague, representing Ireland and Irish produce.
Produce
SIMON DOHERTY
Simon has over 35 years’ experience in the industry and is an expert in the industry and the produce category. Simon is always willing to go above and beyond to ensure the highest quality service.
Produce
ALISON KIDD
Since joining Sysco in 2022, Alison has cultivated strong relationships with many of our key customers. With a deep understanding of the fresh produce market, Alison provides solutions that drive growth and success for her customers.
Bakery & Dessert
ELAINE MEADE
Elaine joined the business in 2024 and brings over 15 years experience in the industry to her role. After training as a chef, Elaine worked in restaurants, hotels and cafes across Ireland and London, later opening her own café In Clare.
Bakery & Dessert
BRONAGH BEATTIE
Bronagh joined Sysco in 2023 and has over 20 years’ experience as a chef, working in fine dining restaurants, cafes and hotels worldwide. She enjoys supporting her customers with new ideas and innovation.
Produce
PATRICK KEOHANE
Patrick joined Sysco 6 years ago. He has a wide range of experience in the sector from growing potatoes on his family farm to the early days of his career prepping veg in a hotel and working as a kitchen porter. Patrick enjoys meeting new people as part of his role, supporting his customers to improve their business.
Catering Supplies & Beverage
JONATHAN O’SHEA
Jonathan joined Sysco in 2022 with over 18 years experience as a chef. Jonathan has vast knowledge and experience in the hospitality industry having worked in restaurants across all levels – from Gastro pubs to Michelin Star.
Catering Supplies & Beverage
DEBBIE BLACKBURN
Debbie joined Sysco in 2022 following 15 years in the coffee industry. She is passionate about customer service, always going the extra mile for her customers.
Bakery & Dessert
BRENDAN SEWELL
More than 32 years’ experience in the food industry in Ireland gives Brendan a deep understanding of the sector. Previously working as a Chef and a pastry chef in 5* Hotels, Brendan has a wealth of knowledge to share with his customers.
Catering Supplies & Beverage
JOANNE McCUSKER
Joanne joined Sysco in 2024 and brings over 30 years’ experience to her role. She began her career in the licensed trade and has owned two coffee shops before progressing into sales.
PROTEIN
BEEF
Irish cattle prices strengthened sharply through July, driven by very low kill numbers and strong export demand. Steers and heifers are now trading between €8.50–€8.80/kg, with some base quotes edging toward €9.00/kg. Tight supplies are expected to persist through year-end, with availability projected to be down by as much as 100,000 head in 2025.
While overall retail sales remain under pressure, movement in October is expected across manufacturing and forequarter cuts, with Christmas demand and live export flows likely to set the tone for late 2025 and early 2026.
Cattle slaughterings fell by 24.5% to 119,000 head last month when compared with figures for July. Current Prices W/E 10
Cattle kill down by 119,000 head in July 2025 - CSO.
KEY POINTS
Pricing Trends
• Irish cattle prices rose significantly in July, with the Irish Farmers’ Association noting values held firm on tightening supplies.
• Central Statistics Office figures show cattle prices up 48% year-on-year in May 2025.
• Prices now stand more than 50% ahead of the same period in 2024, with steers and heifers trading between €8.50–€8.80/kg.
Supply & Production Outlook
• Kill numbers fell 24.5% in July compared to July 2024 (CSO).
• Market reports indicate up to 100,000 fewer cattle may be available for processing in 2025.
• Production declines across Europe (-4% Ireland, -4% UK, -7.3% Germany, -2% France) are compounding tight supply.
Retail & Foodservice Demand
• Despite weaker demand, scarce availability continues to support elevated cattle prices.
• Retail and foodservice customers are trading down from steak options into slow roast and forequarter cuts such as rib roasts, housekeepers’ joints, heavy fillets, and rounds.
• Demand for manufacturing beef remains robust, particularly for lower VL, while higher VL stocks are at record lows.
Market Outlook
• Movement in Q4 will centre on manufacturing and forequarter cuts, with Christmas demand, cattle availability, and live export trends dictating price direction into early 2026.
• Stock levels remain a concern for retailers and foodservice operators ahead of the seasonal uplift in winter sales.
Irl Steer GB Steer Ger YB Pol YB
PORK
Year-to-date, average pig prices remain unchanged, though throughput has improved in the last quarter as demand continues to run ahead of supplies. Total throughput now stands at 2.05 million head, 77,324 ahead of the same period in 2024. In Europe, pork production is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the near term due to seasonal factors, with slaughter numbers and weights typically reaching their lowest levels of the year.
KEY POINTS
Pricing Trends
• Average pig prices are unchanged year-to-date.
• Demand continues to outpace available supplies.
Production & Throughput
• Total throughput year-to-date is 2.05 million head, up 77,324 on 2024 levels.
• EU pork production is expected to remain stable or decline slightly this month, reflecting seasonal lows in slaughter numbers and weights.
Global Outlook
• The global pig market in 2026 is forecast to show uneven performance across regions.
• Pork consumption is expected to rise, led by China, with Europe also seeing gains as inflation in other proteins encourages consumers to switch into pork and bacon.
• Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly between the US and China, continue to create uncertainty.
• Some regions may face downward pressure on prices from increased production and reduced exports, while others may benefit from stable or stronger prices supported by demand and competing protein trends.
particularly between China and the
Source: Pigment Dashboard
Irish Average Grade E Pig Prices per 100kgs
LAMB
The current year has proven challenging for the sheep meat sector, with the national kill down approximately 200,000 head compared to the same period in 2024. Tight supplies are not unique to Ireland, as flock reductions and lower output from the 2025 lambing season are also evident in the UK and Europe. While production costs remain high, European demand is firm, supported by limited supply and elevated prices.
KEY POINTS
Production & Supply
• National kill is down around 200,000 head year-to-date versus 2024.
• UK and European flock data also indicate contraction and reduced output from the 2025 lambing season.
• Supply is expected to remain tight for the rest of 2025.
Pricing Trends
• Euro prices rose significantly in late 2024, and a similar trend is expected in 2025.
• With lower kill levels, a sharper rise in prices could occur in the lead-up to Christmas as processors compete for lambs.
• European demand remains strong, underpinned by limited availability and high prices.
Market Outlook
• Price direction into late 2025 remains uncertain, with Christmas demand a key driver.
• For 2026, the market is expected to follow a similar profile to 2025, with demand expected to increase around Ramadan and Easter.
• Prices are likely to rise again in the Christmas period, though it remains difficult to predict movements early in the year or the extent of volatility overall.
POULTRY
The European poultry sector continues to face significant challenges from rising production costs, evolving welfare regulations, and ongoing disease outbreaks. Tightened supply, import restrictions, and high input costs have driven prices to historic highs, though some easing is expected later in the year if restocking and lower feed costs materialise.
KEY POINTS
Market Commentary
• The European poultry market remains volatile, with Avian Influenza (AI) and Newcastle Disease continuing to disrupt supply.
• In July 2025, seven AI outbreaks were reported across four European countries, affecting 207,000 animals.
• The UK recorded three AI outbreaks, resulting in 150,000 bird losses; Spain reported its first new AI cases in 2.5 years.
• Poland was heavily impacted by Newcastle Disease, with over 4.5 million birds affected in July, leading to reduced throughput and record livestock prices.
• Germany has moved to Welfare Standard Level 3, reducing bird availability by 20% due to lower stocking densities and adding to production costs.
• Import restrictions on Brazilian poultry remain in place, keeping the EU reliant on domestic supply and sustaining upward price pressure.
• EU broiler prices reached €301.81/100 kg carcass weight in Week 34, up 0.5% from the previous week, 1.9% month-on-month, and 9.0% year-on-year.
• Poland forecasts stable pricing in October, with potential declines in November and December as restocking and lower feed costs take effect.
• Risks remain from seasonal HPAI outbreaks, which typically re-emerge in October–November and may disrupt fresh poultry availability.
Price Movement Rationale
• Producers continue to face rising costs in genetics, energy, labour, and insurance.
• Disease outbreaks and regulatory changes have further constrained supply and pushed prices higher.
• Revaluation of tariffs is seen as essential to secure fair producer returns and support investment in biosecurity and sustainable practices.
• Short-term price increases are driven by livestock shortages and strong demand.
• Medium-term forecasts point to some easing as supply improves, though the market remains sensitive to new disease outbreaks.
COOKED MEATS
COOKED MEATS
The sector continues to face significant cost pressures and supply chain disruptions, particularly in cooked chicken, turkey, pork, and beef lines. Volatile poultry markets have had a direct knock-on effect, while rising input costs across the board are prompting tighter stock control and necessary price adjustments.
KEY POINTS
Market Commentary
• Volatility in the European poultry market has directly affected cooked chicken and turkey products, causing sourcing delays and increased reliance on frozen inventories.
• Rising operational costs in energy, labour, and logistics continue to pressure margins and drive reassessment of pricing strategies.
• Demand has shifted toward alternative proteins and value-tier cooked meats as buyers attempt to manage cost exposure.
• Inventory planning is becoming increasingly complex, with suppliers balancing raw material fluctuations against forecasted demand, leading to tighter stock control and more frequent production adjustments.
Price Movement Rationale
• Producers are facing increased costs in raw materials and labour; efficiency efforts have not offset these pressures.
• Cooked chicken and turkey lines are particularly impacted by upstream poultry challenges, including disease outbreaks, welfare regulations, and import bans.
• Pork and beef cooked products are also affected by rising costs in raw materials, labor, energy, testing, and transport.
• Minimum wage increases and general inflation across the supply chain are further escalating costs across all cooked meat categories.
• Price adjustments remain necessary to ensure continuity of supply and product quality.
•The market remains sensitive to further disease outbreaks or regulatory changes, which could reverse the expected easing in prices.
SEAFOOD
SEAFOOD
The seafood sector remains under sustained pressure in Q3 2025, with quota reductions, erratic landings, and biological constraints driving volatility across key species. Cod, hake, and haddock continue to trade at elevated levels due to tight supply and strong demand, while Mediterranean species such as sea bass and bream face rising production costs and higher mortality rates. Prawn markets are also strained by supply-side challenges, contributing to firm global pricing. With seasonal demand building into year-end, prices across most species are expected to remain high or move higher.
SALMON
Salmon prices have softened over the summer months with increased harvest availability. Following the trend, prices will start to increase in the coming months with smoker’s stock piling for the Christmas season.
COD
Cod quotas remain under sustained pressure, with reductions expected to continue until at least 2028/2029. Strong demand has kept prices high, almost double compared to recent years, while limited catches and quota cuts in 2025 reflect sustainability concerns. Supply constraints, seasonal demand for salting, and tariff impacts are combining to maintain elevated pricing across fresh and frozen cod.
Cod catches and quotas in 2025 are significantly lower than in 2024 due to stock sustainability concerns.
• Cod stocks are expected to take several years to recover, keeping quotas low until 2028/2029.
• Prices have nearly doubled in the past two years, with the next four months expected to remain challenging.
• Processors are beginning to buy cod for salting ahead of traditional Christmas Eve demand.
• Iceland remains tight on quota, though its new quota year begins in September.
• A 35% tariff on frozen Russian fish landed into the UK is adding further pressure on fresh and frozen cod markets.
• Whitefish supply will be constrained by the seasonal closure of Peterhead, Europe’s largest whitefish port, from 19 December to 5 January.
• Marine scientists recommend a 2026 quota of 269,440 tonnes, ~21% below 2025 levels, which would be the lowest since 1991 if adopted.
• Cuts to quotas in other fishing areas are also likely, with decisions expected in December.
• Reduced quotas alongside strong demand point to consistently high cod prices through year-end and into 2026.
HAKE
Hake supply in 2025 has been highly erratic, with landings inconsistent and prices at very high levels. Spanish vessels landing into Irish ports often divert catches abroad when higher prices are available, leaving the domestic market short. Limited European landings, combined with strong consumer demand, are keeping the market starved of product.
PRAWNS
KEY POINTS
• Landings are irregular, with Spanish boats redirecting to higher-paying markets.
• The European market is under-supplied, sustaining high prices.
• Declining stocks and poor catches continue to restrict availability.
Global vannamei shrimp prices rose in August 2025 as raw material supply tightened. Prices in Ecuador continued to rise, even as processors warned of mounting losses.
KEY POINTS
• Week 34 farmgate prices were over 3% higher year-on-year.
• Farmers are taking “crop holidays” instead of stocking for second-cycle production, constraining supply despite softer demand.
• Ecuadorian raw material prices keep rising, creating a “disconnection” between farmgate and selling prices.
• Early harvesting, driven by mortality issues and cold weather, has limited availability of larger sizes.
• Retailers and restaurants across Europe are substituting with alternative species such as pollock to manage costs.
• Cod shortages are driving substitution into other species, including hake.
• Rising UK demand, alongside strong European interest, is adding further upward pressure on prices.
KEY POINTS
• Prices for both species have risen significantly and are expected to remain high into 2026.
• Sea bass has been most severely affected, with all sizes showing increases.
• Higher input costs, particularly labour in Turkey, are constraining production.
• Rising seawater temperatures have caused higher mortality rates and reduced stocking.
• European demand remains strong, with Turkish sea bass exports up 21% in 2024.
• Fewer fish have been stocked this year, tightening future supply.
• Prices are expected to stay firm or rise further in 2026, though consumer resistance may eventually cap demand.
BASS & BREAM
Prices for sea bass and sea bream remain high in 2025, reflecting tight supply and rising production costs. Higher labour costs in Turkey, reduced stocking, and increased seawater temperatures have all contributed to supply constraints, with mortality rates adding further pressure. Demand across Europe remains strong, and exports from Turkey rose sharply in 2024, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand.
Haddock Norway* - NOK/mt
HADDOCK
Haddock prices across the North Atlantic have been extremely high in 2025, as demand continues to outpace landings. Limited availability from Iceland and Norway, compounded by tariffs on Russian supply, has kept markets firm. Strong demand for fresh and frozen-at-sea product, alongside seasonal challenges in yield, point to sustained high prices through year-end.
KEY POINTS
• Demand is exceeding landings across the North Atlantic, keeping prices elevated.
• Iceland was running out of quota, though its new quota year begins in September 2025.
• A 35% tariff on Russian fish continues to support higher prices.
• Medium and larger haddock are now approaching cod levels in price.
• Strong demand for fresh haddock persists, with only limited supply from Norway.
• Frozen-at-sea prices have also increased.
• From February to June, the spawning season reduces conditions and yield.
• Outlook for 2026 includes a recommendation for increased quota, offering some relief.
DAIRY
DAIRY
The European dairy sector is navigating a period of mixed conditions in 2025. Strong demand across core categories such as cheese continues to underpin exports, while rising input costs, herd pressures, and regulatory challenges weigh on margins.
Egg prices remain elevated due to feed costs and disease outbreaks, milk prices are trending higher on the back of firm farmgate returns, and butter is under pressure following a sharp correction in the EU market. Overall, the outlook remains shaped by supply constraints, cost inflation, and shifting consumer demand.
CHEESE
The European cheese market continues to see strong demand, particularly for artisanal and organic varieties. Rising costs, however, are putting pressure on margins. According to the European Commission, average raw milk prices in the EU were up 8.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025. Smaller herd sizes, stricter environmental regulations, and challenging weather conditions in France, Germany, and the Netherlands have all contributed to higher input costs.
EU cheese exports grew by 2.7% in volume compared to the previous year, reflecting sustained overseas demand. However, this growth has been moderated by inflationary pressures and ongoing trade uncertainties in some nonEU markets.
EGGS
Egg prices remained elevated through 2025, reflecting persistent cost pressures and supply challenges. Production costs, disease outbreaks, and continued demand have all contributed to sustained high pricing, with limited signs of relief in the near term.
KEY POINTS
Production Costs
• Rising feed, labour, and disease control expenses continue to push prices higher.
• Wage inflation and packaging costs are adding pressure, particularly for egg-based bakery items.
• Free-range eggs remain a significant cost driver.
Disease Outbreaks
• Avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have disrupted supply, reducing laying flocks and driving prices higher in both the EU and globally.
Market Demand
• Despite forecasts of a slowdown, demand has stayed strong enough to maintain elevated prices.
• In the EU, Q4 2025 is expected to bring a seasonal rebound, supported by retail and foodservice demand.
• Supply is improving gradually, especially in Poland, but full normalisation has yet to occur.
Pricing Context
• Food prices in Ireland rose 5.0% in August 2025, though no specific reference was made to egg price stability in that period.
• Egg prices are expected to remain stable into Q4, underpinned by institutional and retail demand.
MILK
Milk prices edged higher during the previous period, supported by stable to bullish market sentiment. Stronger demand following the bank holiday, combined with declining seasonal collections, drove week-on-week increases. Prices are expected to continue rising year-on-year, underpinned by firm farmgate returns, a positive milk-to-feed price ratio, and steady production into September.
BUTTER
Butter prices are expected to remain under pressure in Q4 2025, following a sharp EU market collapse in late August driven by ample supply, weak demand, and cautious buying. Sentiment in the US is also bearish, with strong production, steady stock levels, and rising exports. Globally, output is forecast to rise, led by India and the US, while EU production is set to decline slightly.
KEY POINTS
• EU butter prices remain firm, with cream and margarine up 8–12%; concentrated butter and palm oil are adding to cost pressures.
• Sweet mince inflation and rising labour and distribution costs continue to impact the market.
CANNED & DRIED
SOYBEAN OIL
Soybean oil markets in September are being shaped by trade tensions, US crop conditions, and shifting supply-demand dynamics. While ample supply from South America could restrain price increases, policy changes and biofuel mandates are adding uncertainty.
KEY POINTS
Higher biofuel mandates in the US and Brazil may tighten soybean oil exports. Argentina’s reduction of export taxes on soybeans and byproducts will influence September pricing.
SUNFLOWER OIL
Production estimates for Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria have been revised down, with severe drought and poor yields shaping the early harvest outlook. Market sources expect these regional supply constraints to keep sunflower oil prices elevated heading into the new season.
BEVERAGE & IMPULSE
COFFEE
The introduction of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports into the US has disrupted trade flows, with August price movements proving explosive and unexpected. Looking ahead, markets are awaiting further clarity on US tariff policy. Stocks are falling and are expected to continue declining in the short term, driven primarily by demand from Asian markets.
ICE NY Arabica Futures (Nearby)
ICE London Robusta Futures (Nearby)
SUGAR
European sugar prices have been on an upward trend since October 2024, driven by adverse weather conditions and strong global demand. Initial expectations of higher production were revised downward as crop yields fell short, while policy changes, planting decisions, and structural challenges continue to constrain supply into 2025.
KEY POINTS
Production & Yield
• Early optimism for higher output, based on expanded planting, was cut back as poor weather reduced sucrose content in the beet crop.
• Lower yields per hectare forced downward revisions in production forecasts.
Policy & Regulation
• The UK government’s 2025 ban on neonicotinoids has made it harder for farmers to control virus yellows.
• Without these treatments, growers are reconsidering sugar beet cultivation, adding further supply risk.
Planting & Supply Outlook
• Indications of lower beet planting in several EU countries point to reduced acreage and tighter supply.
• Average yields are expected to remain under pressure, while strong global demand will continue to support EU export volumes.
Industry Disruptions
• The closure of the Souppes-sur-Loing factory in France mid-campaign created ripple effects across the sector.
COCOA
Cocoa prices are expected to remain high through Q4 2025, supported by a global supply deficit, adverse weather in West Africa, and compliance costs linked to EU deforestation regulations. While seasonal trends suggest a possible peak in November, analysts warn that any softening in demand or unwinding of speculative positions could trigger a correction. Market volatility is expected to persist.
ICE NY Arabica Futures (Nearby)
KEY POINTS
• Global cocoa prices fell 14.55% month-on-month but remained 2.21% higher year-on-year.
• Tight inventories and weather-related supply issues in West Africa continue to support the market.
While frosts have caused significant disruption to fruit yields, it’s been a bumper year so far for vegetables.
FROZEN FRUIT
It has been a difficult year for fruit growers across mainland Europe, with severe weather causing widespread supply shortages. Substantial price increases are expected as foodservice buyers compete for limited volumes.
KEY POINTS
• Turkey: Temperatures dropped to –15°C in April: crop losses now estimated at up to 90%.
• Poland: Cherry harvest forecasts are 53% below the long-term average.
• Serbia: Once the world’s largest exporter of frozen raspberries, now facing its worst yield in 50 years after frosts, snowfall, and summer drought.
FROZEN VEGETABLES
The outlook for frozen vegetables is considerably more positive, with growers in Northwestern Europe benefiting from favourable weather and stabilising input costs. Strong crop yields are expected, and buyers are already seeing savings across several categories, most notably brassicas such as cauliflower and broccoli, as well as frozen peas and sweetcorn.
