Nigam & Dirk Singer
Shashank
PART ONE INTRODUCTION
RUNNING ON EMPTY: AVIATION'S RACE AGAINST ITS CARBON BUDGET
PICTURE THIS: sweltering cabins where temperatures exceed 100°F (38°C), flights grounded by extreme heat, runways warping under record-breaking temperatures, and passengers enduring severe turbulence. This isn’t a dystopian vision—it’s the reality of today’s aviation industry as the planet warms.
And the situation could get worse. 1 Coastal airports flooded by rising seas, longer flight times due to stronger headwinds, and the need to extend runways are just a few ways climate change could disrupt air travel.
Yet, even as global warming reshapes the skies, the aviation industry is hurtling towards a reckoning with its own future.
Over 100,000 flights take off daily, and global air traffic is expected to double by 2043. 2 Airlines are placing recordbreaking aircraft orders, locking in emissions for decades. OPEC’s Outlook 2050 report 3 forecasts aviation fuel demand will grow by 4.2 million barrels per day by 2050—enough to fill 1,680 swimming pools daily.
As a result, the industry’s carbon budget—18.4 billion tonnes if we want to reach net zero emissions by 2050 —is rapidly depleting.
“Think of it as a carbon countdown,” warns Dan Rutherford,
SUSTAINABILITY
Senior Director of Research at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). “We have a finite carbon budget, and by 2032, it will be gone.”
The numbers are stark: aircraft already in service will consume 40% of this budget over their lifetimes. Meanwhile, daily flights and rising passenger demand continue to erode this shrinking allowance
“The numbers leave you speechless,” says Jo Dardenne, 4 aviation director at Transport & Environment, who warns that the sector’s credibility is at stake.
Currently, aviation accounts for 2.5% of global CO2 emissions. However, its total contribution to warming is closer to 4% when non-CO2 effects like contrails and nitrogen oxides are factored in. 5
While that percentage might seem modest, it's set to grow dramatically. As other sectors like power generation and automotive rapidly decarbonise, aviation risks being left behind. If current trends continue, the industry could account for over 20% of global emissions by 2050. 6
How did we get here? And more importantly, how can the industry change course? To answer these questions, we must understand the complex interplay of technological, economic, and political factors that make aviation one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise.
THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE
Unlike ground transportation, which can more easily transition to electric power, aviation faces significant technical constraints. While promising startups—some of which are featured in this book—are developing zero-emission aircraft, these innovations are currently limited to shorter, regional routes due to limitations in battery energy density
However, it’s not short-haul flights but long-haul flights that are the problem. Longer flights account for a disproportionate
share of fuel consumption and, consequently, emissions. A study published in the Journal of Transport Geography 7 found that flights under 500 km represent 26.7% of all flights, but only 5.2% of fuel burned. In contrast, flights over 4,000 km make up just 5.1% of flights yet consume 39% of fuel.
This disparity is expected to persist. According to the study’s authors, seat kilometres for long-haul flights have grown by 163% since the mid-1990s, compared to a mere 28% increase for short-haul flights.
Compounding the challenge is the sheer demand for new aircraft and their long operational lifespans.
Boeing’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook 8 predicted demand for nearly 44,000 new planes by 2043, up from around 28,000 today, driven by a 4.7% annual increase in passenger air traffic. This growth is fueled by emerging markets in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, with single-aisle aircraft expected to dominate 71% of the fleet by 2043
Meeting that demand is already challenging for the world’s top two aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus.
At current delivery rates, it will take nearly 14 years to clear the existing order backlog, 9 pushing deliveries well into the 2030s.
Consequently, many aircraft ordered today will continue flying into the 2050s or even 2060s, given that the lifespan of commercial aircraft can exceed twenty years. Few aircraft owners want to be left with obsolete technology and want to maximise the return on their investment.
This leads to what economists call a "lock-in effect,” 10 where the large conventional aircraft orders of today are making the industry stick with those aircraft tomorrow, leading to decades more of future emissions.
Already, Airbus has watered down its earlier ambitions to have a hydrogen-powered 100-200 seat aircraft flying by the mid-2030s, announcing that the A320 replacement will run on today’s technology. 11
The solution, of course, is to ensure that as many of these aircraft as possible are Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)-ready, allowing alternative fuels made from non-fossil-fuel feedstocks to be integrated into existing aircraft. In this book, we discuss Boeing’s extensive efforts in this regard through its ‘SAF&’ program. 12
However, while Boeing and Airbus manufacture the aircraft, they ultimately sell them to other entities. More often than not, these are lessors who lease the aircraft to airlines. 13
The centre of the aircraft leasing industry is Ireland. At the annual gathering of the industry in Dublin in January 2025, the shortage of aircraft was the main topic of discussion. Unlike in previous years, sustainability concerns took a back seat. According to reporting by Irish broadcaster RTÉ, what industry insiders called "ESG fatigue" had set in. 14
"The general consensus is that the sustainability subject is moving off-centre," Simon Newitt, president of Sweden's Heart Aerospace, told the gathering.
One delegate confided to us, off the record, that due to the economic bonanza from increased leasing rates, the prevailing sentiment was that the sustainability problem could be kicked into the long grass for now.
However, climate change and the resulting pressures on aviation are not going away.
Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at UK-based Cirium Ascend, opened the conference with a stark warning: "Sustainability is a big issue in this cycle... that's going to become an even bigger issue, because if we don't demonstrate significant progress towards net-zero, then regulators will observe our lack of progress and do something about it."
The diverging priorities were clear—while bottlenecks and parts shortages forced airlines to keep older, less efficient jets flying longer, new EU sustainable aviation fuel mandates were coming into force.
As Morris observed, aviation risks falling short of its climate
goals without radical innovation and a willingness to prematurely retire older aircraft, leaving a lasting negative environmental legacy for decades to come.
THE CARBON MATH: BREAKING DOWN THE BUDGET
An analysis published by the ICCT 15 in July 2024 reveals a sobering reality about aviation's carbon future.
"If you look at the committed emissions from all the planes that are already in service—just looking at the fleet in 2024—and you run the thought experiment of letting all those planes run until they would naturally be retired, you're already consuming 40% of a net-zero CO2 budget," explains Rutherford.
The implications are stark: For airlines to meet net-zero 2050 goals, all new aircraft must be zero-emission over their lifetime by 2035. This could be achieved through either aircraft compatible with 100% sustainable aviation fuels or new technologies like hydrogen or electric propulsion.
Looking at manufacturer forecasts adds another layer of complexity. "They are predicting something on the order of 40,000 aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years," Rutherford notes. "And a lot of those are going to be existing technologies because the manufacturers are not really putting out new, more fuel-efficient aircraft types right now. So we're actually running in the opposite direction of where we need to go."
The ICCT's modelling shows two possible trajectories. Under an optimistic scenario with aggressive SAF adoption and efficiency gains, aviation might extend its carbon budget until 2037. However, under business-as-usual conditions, the budget would be exhausted by 2032
The challenge becomes more complex when considering how new aircraft are deployed. "Anytime an airline purchases a new aircraft, there are two directions this could go emissions-wise," Rutherford explains. "If it's used to replace an older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, that ends up as a reduction in emissions, because
typically a new aircraft is about 15% more fuel efficient than the aircraft it replaces. The flip side is if it's used to serve a new route, in which case it's a little bit better than what could have been, but it's still new traffic, it's still new emissions."
This raises important questions about growth markets versus established routes.
As Rutherford acknowledges, "High-income countries have been responsible for about 70% of aviation emissions to date. And they're only about 16% of the world's population. So it's very imbalanced." He notes it would be "very hypocritical for a rich country that has benefited from decades of aviation growth to say to an emerging economy, ‘reduce your emissions,’ even as those richer countries grow their airports, grow their airlines."
Indeed, even in nations that have made strong climate commitments, airport expansion continues unabated. The UK government's January 2025 approval of a third runway at London Heathrow 16—Europe's busiest airport—exemplifies this contradiction.
Four other London airports—Gatwick, City, Stansted and Luton—are also set for expansion, creating an unprecedented situation where five major airports in a single metropolitan area could grow simultaneously. 17
This suggests that despite net-zero pledges, economic growth remains the priority over climate concerns for many governments, a position reinforced by mounting cost-of-living pressures, which led to political shifts like Donald Trump's election in the USA in November 2024.
FROM NUMBERS TO ACTION: AN AIRLINE CEO'S BALANCING ACT AT THE CROSSROADS
While the numbers paint a sobering picture and create a challenge for the industry, the responsibility for translating these challenges into concrete action falls on individual airlines.
For Anko van der Werff, CEO of Scandinavian Airlines (SAS),
that action isn't just a business imperative—it's a regional necessity shaped by some of the world's most environmentally conscious customers.
"Scandinavia is truly different," van der Werff explains. 18 "The environmental consciousness here runs deeper than anywhere I've seen." Even two decades ago, corporate clients in the region demanded detailed sustainability reports before choosing an airline.
Yet his airline faces a fundamental paradox. With their vast landscapes and remote communities, aviation isn't a luxury in Norway and Sweden—it's essential infrastructure. In the north, businesses consistently request more flights, not fewer.
"The first thing those businesses ask is, can you put in more flights?" van der Werff notes. "They need to be connected. Aviation is part of society here. It's not looked upon as something to avoid; it's a necessity."
This tension—where the imperative to decarbonise collides with the undeniable necessity of flight—exemplifies the dilemma facing airlines worldwide. The industry must rapidly reduce emissions while maintaining vital connectivity
To square this circle, SAS is pursuing multiple pathways to net zero. The airline has partnered with Airbus on hydrogen research and with Heart Aerospace 19 to introduce electric aircraft for regional routes by the end of the decade.
However, SAF, fuel made from non-fossil fuel feedstocks, presents the most immediate opportunity.
Here, SAS has made significant commitments, such as transitioning to biofuel purchases for all staff travel as of December 1, 2023. The airline has also set an ambitious environmental target to fuel SAF equivalent to SAS' fuel consumption in Scandinavia by 2030. 20
The challenge lies in scaling this solution further. Today, SAF accounts for just 0.7% of global aviation fuel, 21 with only 33 production facilities operational worldwide. The industry needs at least 300 by 2030 to meet its targets. 22
That’s because regulators are increasingly forcing the pace of change. The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative 23 and the UK’s SAF mandate 24 are creating binding requirements for airlines to integrate SAF, starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 6% by 2030, with additional sub-mandates for synthetic e-fuels, made from renewable energy.
Similar requirements are emerging globally, from British Columbia's pioneering North American mandate 25 to Singapore's innovative passenger levy approach, 26 to fund the country’s SAF mandate from 2026.
For airlines like SAS, the economics remain what van der Werff calls a "chicken and egg" problem. SAF currently costs three to eight times more than conventional jet fuel, and while prices could drop with increased production, energy companies hesitate to invest without guaranteed demand.
With costs inevitably trickling down to passengers, SAS has taken a proactive approach through their EuroBonus Conscious Traveler programme 27 .
The initiative represents a significant shift from traditional carbon offsetting schemes, where passengers simply funded treeplanting projects after their flights.
"Rather than compensating after the flight has taken place, we believe the aviation industry needs to focus on reducing total emissions," explains Aron Backström, Vice President of Product & Loyalty at SAS. 28
The programme rewards members who complete ten or more sustainability-focused actions in a calendar year, qualifying them as "Conscious Travelers." These actions span the entire travel journey:
Learning about sustainable aviation fuel
Purchasing biofuel for flights
Donating EuroBonus points to environmental charities
Choosing sustainable products in the EuroBonus shop
Reducing food waste by pre-ordering or opting out of meals
Making sustainable choices at travel destinations
Early results show promise. In just six months, the percentage of passengers opting to purchase SAF has tripled from less than 0.5% to between 1.5% and 2%. The meal-planning initiative has already achieved a 6-8% reduction in food waste.
"Low base, low numbers, I get it," van der Werff acknowledges. "But the equivalent of 500 flights' worth of CO2 that we've taken out—that's really good."
These initiatives, while modest in scale, demonstrate how airlines can begin engaging passengers in the transition to sustainable aviation. More importantly, they show that customers are willing to participate when given clear, meaningful ways to contribute.
The question now is where all this sustainable fuel will come from. SAF production currently relies on three main pathways, each with its own potential and limitations.
THE FUTURE OF SAF: FROM AIRLINE AMBITION TO PRODUCTION REALITY
As SAS and other airlines pursue ambitious SAF targets, they face a crucial question: where will all this sustainable fuel come from? The answer lies in three generations of production technology, each with its own potential and limitations.
Today's SAF production centres on what's known as HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), which converts waste oils and fats into jet fuel
While this first-generation technology works—and currently dominates the market—it faces a fundamental constraint: limited feedstock. Even with imports from China, HEFA-based fuels could only meet about 10% of global jet fuel demand by 2050.
This constraint has driven the industry toward next-generation technologies that leverage more abundant feedstocks.
These include processes that convert municipal solid waste and agricultural residues into fuel, as well as alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) pathways. While early AtJ methods depended on food-based ethanol, recent advancements prioritise second-generation feedstocks like miscanthus and sugarcane residues
However, scaling these solutions remains a challenge. The 2024 collapse of Fulcrum BioEnergy, 29 a prominent waste-to-fuel startup with United Airlines as one of its investors, underscored the economic barriers that continue to hinder widespread adoption.
The most promising—but also most challenging—pathway is Power-to-Liquid (PtL) or e-fuels. These synthetic fuels are produced using renewable electricity, water, and captured CO₂, offering a nearly circular carbon cycle with up to 95% lifecycle emissions reduction
The production process involves:
1. Using renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen through water electrolysis
2. Capturing CO₂ from industrial emissions or directly from the air
3. Combining the hydrogen and CO₂ through synthesis
4. Refining the resulting synthetic crude into e-kerosene
BREAKING THROUGH: THE RACE TO SCALE E-FUELS PRODUCTION
While e-fuels offer theoretically unlimited production potential, they face a significant hurdle: cost
Currently running up to eight times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, the challenge lies not in proving the technology works—e-fuels have already powered test flights—but in producing them at scale and competitive prices.
The key to unlocking affordable e-fuels lies in their primary
ingredient: hydrogen. Today, hydrogen comes in several "colours," each representing different production methods and environmental impacts:
Grey hydrogen, the most common form, is produced from natural gas through steam methane reforming (SMR), but emits significant CO2
Blue hydrogen uses the same process but captures and stores the CO2 emissions
Green hydrogen, produced by splitting water using renewable electricity, is the cleanest but most expensive option—currently over $5 per kilogram. White hydrogen, a new entrant, is naturally occurring hydrogen found in underground deposits.
One company working to overcome these challenges is Ineratec, whose innovative approach could help make e-fuels a commercial reality. 30 With its headquarters just outside Frankfurt Airport, the company is challenging conventional wisdom about fuel production by thinking modular rather than massive
"We are at an inflexion point," says Tim Boeltken, founder and managing director of Ineratec. "The chemistry of e-fuels has been understood for decades, but what's been missing is an economically viable way to scale production."
Rather than following the traditional mega-refinery model that dominates aviation fuel production, Boeltken and his colleagues are reimagining what a fuel plant should look like. "Instead of building one massive facility and hoping the economics work out, we focus on modular, scalable plants that can be deployed wherever the right conditions exist."
This approach represents a fundamental shift. Rather than relying on massive, centralised hubs requiring billions in investment, Ineratec's strategy involves smaller, flexible plants located near sources of captured CO₂ and renewable energy.
The company's first industrial-scale PtL plant in Frankfurt 31
will produce 2,500 tonnes of e-fuel annually. While this represents just a fraction of the 330 million tonnes needed to meet global aviation demand, it marks a crucial step toward proving commercial viability
As Boeltken acknowledges: "It sounds like a lot, but in the grand scheme of things, it's nothing. That's why we're designing systems that can be replicated, not just scaled."
Investors are backing this vision. In January 2024, 32 the company secured $129 million in Series B funding, led by Piva Capital and with participation from Honda, Planet A Ventures, and other strategic investors.
A year later, 33 in February 2025, they received a €70 million funding package from the European Investment Bank, EUCommission and Breakthrough Energy. This funding will accelerate the transition from pilot-scale to industrial production, validating market demand for PtL fuels.
However, the cost and significant energy requirement needed to make e-fuels has led some industry leaders to question the feasibility of widespread adoption. Lufthansa's CEO, Carsten Spohr, estimates that switching his airline's fleet entirely to ekerosene would consume half of Germany's total electricity production. 34
Boeltken acknowledges this challenge but sees it as an opportunity for strategic deployment: "You don't build these plants where energy is expensive or constrained. You build them where there's excess renewable energy, such as Chile, the Middle East, or parts of North America."
Other companies in the e-fuels space share Boeltken’s perspective. HIF Global, already operating in Chile with backing from German carmaker Porsche, aims to produce 150,000 barrels of e-fuel daily by the mid-2030s. Their strategy focuses on locations with abundant renewable energy resources to create what they call "a new green oil."
"We're targeting areas where we can harness untapped renewable resources," explains Clara Bowman, HIF Global's
COO. 35 "The goal is to create products that can be exported to demand centres and converted into everything from jet fuel to plastics—essentially replacing fossil fuels with renewable alternatives."
Some analysts suggest 36 that in optimal conditions, particularly in countries like Chile, the cost of green hydrogen could drop to between $1.50 and $3 per kg. This would make it almost cost-competitive with grey hydrogen, potentially transforming the economics of e-fuel production.
This aligns with Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr's vision. "You need to go to a place where you have sufficient clean electric energy, which will not be in the middle of Europe," he told Politico. 37 "The industry is used to producing fuel in a different location than where you need it."
So, the key to success may lie in following existing models. Just as conventional jet fuel is imported into Europe today, efuels could follow the same path tomorrow—produced where renewable energy is abundant and transported to where it's needed.
Finally, a number of experimental options are emerging to produce cheap, clean hydrogen. One Florida company, Magma Power, has a patent to produce hydrogen for as little as $1 a kg using geothermal power. 38
Meanwhile, companies like Koloma are exploring "white hydrogen" extracted from natural deposits, having raised over $350 million from investors, including Breakthrough Energy and United Airlines Ventures. 39
Viacheslav Zgonnik, a researcher and entrepreneur in the natural hydrogen space, believes that white hydrogen could be extracted at approximately $1 per kilogram 40—a breakthrough price that could make synthetic aviation fuels competitive with traditional fossil fuels.
Zgonnik says that hundreds of years' worth of untapped energy exists at various natural hydrogen deposits worldwide and envisages a model where e-fuel plants co-locate in places
where hydrogen is extracted, circumventing some of the issues that exist when it comes to storing and transporting hydrogen.
CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL: THE MISSING PIECE IN AVIATION'S CLIMATE PUZZLE
While e-fuels represent a crucial pathway to sustainable aviation, the industry faces a sobering reality: even with the aggressive adoption of SAF and the emergence of hydrogen and electric aircraft, some emissions will remain unavoidable.
This is where Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) enters the picture—not as a substitute for decarbonisation, but as its essential complement.
According to IATA, 41 approximately one-fifth of aviation's decarbonisation efforts will rely on carbon removal. Major players like IAG, for example, have already allocated 17% of their net-zero roadmap to these strategies. 42 But what exactly does removing carbon from the atmosphere entail?
Among the various CDR approaches—from reforestation to enhanced weathering—one technology stands out as particularly promising for aviation: Direct Air Capture (DAC).
The process, as implemented by Climeworks at the world's largest DAC facility in Iceland, is deceptively simple: giant fans draw air into structures, where it passes over specially coated plastic surfaces that capture CO₂.
"It's essentially scaling up a high school chemistry concept— an acid-base reaction—to tackle one of the planet's most pressing environmental challenges," explains Christoph Gebald, Climeworks' co-founder. 43
What makes DAC especially interesting for aviation is its dual potential. Beyond simply removing carbon from the atmosphere, the captured CO₂ can serve as a feedstock for power-to-liquid fuels alongside green hydrogen—creating a virtuous circle where today's emissions become tomorrow's sustainable fuel.
This dual-use potential has sparked debate. Some argue that aviation should focus on simply storing captured carbon underground while continuing to use fossil fuels, 44 directing precious renewable energy to other sectors. Advocates of this approach also say it’s a far cheaper solution than using CO2 for e-fuels.
However, research from ETH Zürich published in Nature Communications 45 suggests otherwise. Their study found that using captured CO₂ for synthetic fuels could be more cost-effective than underground storage when considering aviation's total climate impact, including contrails. The reason? E-fuels produce fewer warming contrails than conventional fuel.
The economics of DAC are also improving rapidly. Once dismissed as prohibitively expensive at $600 per tonne of CO2, technological breakthroughs are changing the equation.
Israeli startup RepAir exemplifies this progress—their innovative electrochemical process uses just one-quarter of the energy of traditional methods. By replacing expensive metals with recycled polypropylene, they aim to slash costs to around $70 per tonne. 46
The industry is taking notice. 47 Lufthansa, British Airways, and Swiss have purchased carbon removal credits from Climeworks. Airbus has made a landmark commitment to prepurchase 400,000 tonnes of CO2 removal from DAC firm 1PointFive, while American Airlines has secured 10,000 tonnes from CDR company Graphyte.
Though modest in scale, these investments signal growing recognition of CDR's strategic importance.
Scale-up efforts are accelerating. Return Carbon and Verified Carbon's "Project Concho" target 50,000 tonnes of annual carbon removal by 2030, with plans to reach 500,000 annually
Meanwhile, 1PointFive's Stratos Plant in Texas 48 aims to become the world's largest DAC facility, capturing up to 500,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually when it begins commercial operation in 2026.
Yet CDR faces a significant regulatory hurdle. Unlike SAF,
which is now mandated in several regions, airlines face no requirements to purchase carbon removal credits. As Gebald notes, "Buying sustainable aviation fuels helps airlines meet their mandates. Buying carbon removal credits doesn't—yet."
Despite this regulatory gap, forward-thinking airlines recognise CDR's vital role in their net-zero strategy.
With many current aircraft still operating in 2050 and even PtL SAF not achieving 100% CO2 reduction, carbon removal provides a critical insurance policy.
If SAF and electric flight fall short of expectations, CDR offers a vital fallback strategy to keep net-zero goals within reach.
CHARTING THE COURSE: SMART ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES AS AVIATION'S NORTH STAR
The technical pathways to aviation's net-zero future are becoming increasingly clear, from Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to electric flight and carbon capture.
However, the industry faces a fundamental question: how can it manage this transition while meeting the growing global demand for air travel?
Some propose a straightforward solution: just cap aviation's growth, declaring, "This much, but no more."
Dick Benschop, Chair of the Mission Possible Partnership and former CEO of Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, envisions a more nuanced approach.
Recent airport expansion projects worldwide suggest limited appetite for growth restrictions, and using taxation as a blunt instrument risks stifling the industry without achieving meaningful environmental progress.
Instead, Benschop advocates for smart environmental limits —structured policies that incentivise innovation while ensuring sustainability targets are met.
"Environmental boundaries must be clearly defined in terms
of noise and CO2 emissions," he explains. "Within these parameters, airlines can earn their right to operate and grow."
This approach reframes the traditional debate. Rather than imposing broad restrictions or penalties, smart environmental limits establish clear trajectories for emissions reduction, enabling the aviation sector to compete, innovate, and identify optimal solutions within defined sustainability constraints
Consider the chicken-and-egg problem surrounding SAF.
Airlines hesitate to adopt SAF due to limited supply, while producers delay investment without guaranteed demand. Benschop emphasises that smart policies, particularly blending mandates, can break this cycle.
"Mandates create guaranteed demand, which naturally stimulates supply," he explains, pointing to the EU's RefuelEU regulation as an example.
Moreover, these ‘green’ policies drive job creation and economic growth. In 2023, clean energy accounted for 10% of global GDP growth, contributing over $320 billion to the world economy—equivalent to the economic output of the Czech Republic 49
This shift is not abstract; it is tangible. Real jobs and investments are raising living standards. This is why, even with the election of fossil fuel advocate Donald Trump to the White House, conservative US states are embracing clean energy.
As Oklahoma's Lieutenant Governor Matt Pinnell noted while celebrating a billion-dollar investment in lithium refining in his state 50: "This project not only strengthens our state's position as a leader in sustainable energy, but it also creates hundreds of good-paying jobs and drives economic growth for our communities."
This comes as a University of Wyoming report estimates that, with expansion, total tax revenues from wind energy projects could range from $600 billion to $1.8 billion over 20 years 51
The same logic that led the UK government to approve airport expansion in London also led legislators in deep-red
Wyoming to reject a bill to impose a five-year moratorium on wind and solar projects 52 and "make carbon dioxide great again."
As a result, rather than brow-beating policymakers and the public about flying and using guilt as a tactic, it would be better to show that decarbonising industries like aviation leads directly to a higher standard of living, a message that resonates across the political spectrum
Benschop echoes this perspective, advocating for marketbased measures and a mix of targeted incentives and regulations: "We need to move beyond simplistic taxation," he argues. "Rather than penalising all flights equally, we should focus on incentivising sustainable fuel adoption."
In other words, target the real problem. That problem isn’t flying as such—it has made the world smaller and delivered enormous economic, cultural, and social benefits. The problem is flying while emitting carbon, and that's where policy should concentrate
Benschop compares aviation's decarbonisation journey to a complex synchronisation challenge. "Success requires perfect coordination of technology, investments, policies, and customer behaviour. While we haven't achieved this seamless integration yet, it remains our primary focus."
Achieving this balance demands coordinated action:
Governments must set clear long-term limits and create regulatory certainty.
Airlines must invest in efficiency, SAF procurement, and emerging technologies. Fuel producers need to scale up SAF production with demand-side support
Passengers and corporations must embrace their role through programs like SAS's Conscious Traveler programme, and Alaska Airlines’s customer initiatives, which we discuss later in this book.
Finally, while some in aviation view intense climate scrutiny as unfair, Benschop sees opportunity. "We embrace this spotlight as a catalyst for change," he says. "By engaging stakeholders, building voluntary demand, and accelerating innovation, we can transform our industry. This is the path forward."
This perspective offers hope through pragmatism. Rather than viewing aviation as a problem, we should see it as a testbed for smart climate solutions. If aviation can decarbonise through structured, innovation-driven policies, it can serve as a model for other industries.
The road ahead is challenging but achievable. With the right policies, investments, and commitment to smart environmental limits, aviation can not only meet its climate commitments but also lead the way in sustainable transformation.
The following chapters explore how organisations across the sector are turning this vision into reality. From airlines embracing SAF and new propulsion technologies to manufacturers and infrastructure providers driving innovation, their stories demonstrate that net-zero aviation is not a distant goal— it is being built today
NOTES
RUNNING ON EMPTY: AVIATION'S RACE AGAINST ITS CARBON BUDGET
1. How climate change is having a turbulent impact on air travel. Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, July 31 2024 https://green.simpliflying.com/p/ how-climate-change-is-having-a-turbulent
2. Twice as many air passengers in 20 years, according to airline forecasts, Brussels Times, Monday 22 July 2024, https://www.brusselstimes.com/ 1149030/twice-as-many-air-passengers-in-20-years-according-to-airlineforecasts
3. OPEC launches WOO 2024 and sees global oil demand at over 120 mb/d in 2050 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7377.htm
4. Heathrow Airport reveals record year for passenger numbers - prompting climate warning from 'speechless' campaigners, Jan 13 2025, Sky News https://news.sky.com/story/heathrow-airport-reveals-record-year-forpassenger-numbers-prompting-climate-warning-from-speechless-campaign ers-13288047
5. What share of global CO₂ emissions come from aviation?Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data, April 8 2024, https://ourworldindata.org/global-avia tion-emissions
6. Energy Transitions Commission, Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible, July 2022 https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/making-net-zeroaviation-possible/#:~:text=If%20aviation%20were%20unmitigated%2C%20it,a%201.5%C2%B0C%20target
7. The elephant in the room: Long-haul air services and climate change, Journal of Transport Geography, Frederic Dobruszkes, Giulio Mattioli, Enzo Gozzoli, 2024, https://www.uecna.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-s2.0S096669232400231X-main.pdf
8. Boeing’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) https://www.boeing. com/features/2024/07/2024-commercial-market-outlook-is-in
9. Supply Chain Issues Continue to Impact the Industry in 2025, British Aviation Group, 21 January 2025 https://www.britishaviationgroup.co.uk/ knowledge/supply-chain-issues-continue-to-impact-the-industry-in-2025/
10. Technological and institutional ‘lock-in’ as a barrier to sustainable innovation Timothy J. Foxon, Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICCEPT), November 2022 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/ imperial-college/research-centres-and-groups/icept/7294726.PDF
11. A320neo successor would be based on new platform burning sustainable aviation fuel: Faury, David Kaminski-Morrow, Flight Global 15 February 2024 https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transport/a320neo-successorwould-be-based-on-new-platform-burning-sustainable-aviation-fuel-faury/ 156946.article
12. See the dedicated Boeing chapter
13. IATA Chart of the Week, More aircraft are leased than owned by airlines globally, 12 April 2024 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publica tions/economic-reports/more-aircraft-are-leased-than-owned-by-airlinesglobally/
14. RTE - ESG takes backseat to jet shortages at aviation conference, 17 Jan 2025, https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0117/1491425-airline-economicsconference/
15. Lifetime Emissions from Aircraft under a net zero carbon budget, Dan Rutherford and Supraja Kumar, July 18 2024 ICCT, https://theicct.org/publi cation/lifetime-emissions-from-aircraft-under-a-net-zero-carbon-budgetjul24/
16. Reeves backs third Heathrow runway in growth push, Brian Wheeler, BBC News, 29 January 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ cvg4d97wxgdo
17. Five airport expansions at once? London’s economy is finally ready for takeoff, John Dickie, 28 January 2025, https://www.cityam.com/five-airportexpansions-at-once-londons-economy-is-finally-ready-for-takeoff/
18. How SAS wants to pioneer sustainable aviation in Scandinavia, Ayushi Badola, Sustainability in the Air, Oct 3 2024, https://green.simpliflying. com/p/anko-van-der-werff-sas
19. See the dedicated Heart Aerospace chapter
20. SAS SAS AND INTER TERMINALS INVEST IN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELhttps://www.sasgroup.net/newsroom/ press-releases/2024/sas-and-inter-terminals-invest-in-infrastructure-forsustainable-aviation-fuel/#:~:text=SAS%20has%20set%20an%20ambitious,will%20contribute%20towards%20that%20target
21. Disappointingly Slow Growth in SAF Production, IATA, 10 December 2024 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-12-10-03/
22. Aviation's green leap: SAF panel says we will need 10x more plants to meet 2030 goals, Sustainability in the Air, Dirk Singer, 27 May 2024 https://green. simpliflying.com/p/aviations-green-leap-saf-panel-says
23. RefuelEU aviation initiative: Council adopts new law to decarbonise the aviation sector, 9 October 2023, European Council, https://www.consilium. europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/10/09/refueleu-aviation-initia tive-council-adopts-new-law-to-decarbonise-the-aviation-sector/
24. UK Government, About the SAF Mandate https://www.gov.uk/govern ment/publications/about-the-saf-mandate
25. British Columbia makes history with first North American aviation fuel mandate, formalizes new LCFS Regulation, Advanced Biofuels Canada, 11 December 2023 https://advancedbiofuels.ca/british-columbia-makeshistory-with-first-north-american-aviation-fuel-mandate-formalizes-newlcfs-regulation/
26. Singapore flights to require SAF, impose levy from 2026, Argus Media, 11 Feb 2024 https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latestmarket-news/2539419-singapore-flights-to-require-saf-impose-levy-from2026
27. SAS Eurobonus Conscious Traveler https://www.flysas.com/en/ eurobonus/conscious-traveler/
28. SAS UNVEILS EUROBONUS CONSCIOUS TRAVELER, https://www. sasgroup.net/newsroom/press-releases/2023/sas-unveils-eurobonusconscious-traveler/
29. Fulcrum BioEnergy Inc. Files for Ch. 11 Bankruptcy in Delaware, Nurin Sofia, Bloomberg Sept 10 2024 https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bank ruptcy-law/fulcrum-bioenergy-inc-files-for-ch-11-bankruptcy-in-delaware
30. How INERATEC plans to turn 1 gigawatt of power into 125 million gallons of e-fuel, Shubhodeep Pal, Sustainability in the Air, 29 August 2024 https:// green.simpliflying.com/p/ineratec-tim-boeltken
31. Fueling Future Mobility – e-Fuels made in Germany, Ineratec, https://www. ineratec.de/en/fueling-future-mobility-e-fuels-made-germany
32. Can ‘greener’ e-fuels save the planet? This startup just raised $129m to try and make it happen, Miriam Partington, Sifted, Jan 16 2025 https://sifted. eu/articles/ineratec-raises-129m
33. €70 Million From EIB, EU-Commission and Breakthrough Energy, Fuel Cell Works, Feb 4 2025, https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/02/04/hydrogen-econ omy/germany-ineratec-s-e-fuel-demo-plant-in-frankfurt-gets-70-millionfrom-eib-eu-commission-and-breakthrough-energy
34. German airline Lufthansa says it would consume half of Germany’s electricity if it were to switch to green fuels, Fortune, Sept 23 2023 https:// fortune.com/europe/2023/09/26/lufthansa-airlines-carsten-spohr-halfgermany-electricity-green-fuel-e-kerosene-saf/
35. HIF Global looks to scale e-fuel production to new heights, Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, May 29 2024 https://green.simpliflying.com/p/ hif-global-looks-to-scale-e-fuel
36. Latin America gears up for clean hydrogen boom but the road is not smooth, Oliver Griffin, Lucinda Elliott and Fabio Teixeira, Reuters, October 5 2024, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/latin-amer ica-gears-up-clean-hydrogen-boom-road-is-not-smooth-2024-10-04/
37. The airline CEO pessimistic about alternative fuels, Iris Sentner, June 21 2023, Politico https://www.politico.com/newsletters/the-long-game/2023/ 06/21/the-airline-ceo-pessimistic-about-alternative-fuels-00102870
38. Magma Power Secures Patents for Ultra-Low-Cost Geothermal Energy, Paving the Way for Green Hydrogen Under $1/Kg, Fuel Cell Works, Sept 18 2024 https://fuelcellsworks.com/2024/09/18/clean-energy/magma-powersecures-patents-for-ultra-low-cost-geothermal-energy-paving-the-way-forgreen-hydrogen-under-1-kg
39. Koloma raises $50M more in quest to find natural hydrogen underground, Maria Galluci, Canary Media, Oct 17 2024 https://www.canarymedia.com/ articles/hydrogen/koloma-raises-50m-more-in-quest-to-find-natural-hydro gen-underground
40. Can white hydrogen revolutionise clean energy and aviation fuels?, Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, Feb 2 2024 https://green.simpliflying.com/ p/can-white-hydrogen-revolutionise
41. IATA - Developing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) https://www.iata.org/ en/programs/sustainability/sustainable-aviation-fuels/
42. IAG Roadmap 2050 https://www.iairgroup.com/sustainability/roadmap2050/
43. How Climeworks is making Direct Air Capture a viable decarbonisation pathway, Ayushi Badola, Sustainability in the Air, January 9 2025 https:// green.simpliflying.com/p/christoph-gebald-climeworks
44. Rethinking aviation's path to Net Zero: the carbon removals approach, Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, Nov 17 2024 https://green.simpliflying. com/p/carbon-removals-aviation-net-zero
45. Has the economics of carbon capture in aviation reached a turning point?, Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, Jan 13 2025 https://green.simpliflying. com/p/has-the-economics-of-carbon-capture
46. How RepAir's Intel-inspired strategy could revolutionise carbon capture, Dirk Singer, Sustainability in the Air, 24 November 2024 https://green. simpliflying.com/p/repair-direct-air-capture-intel-strategy
47. New Report: The Role of Carbon Removals in Decarbonising Aviation, SimpliFlying, Oct 29 2024 https://green.simpliflying.com/p/new-reportthe-role-of-carbon-removals
48. 1Point5 Stratos https://www.1pointfive.com/projects/ector-county-tx
49. Clean energy accounts for 10% of global GDP growth in 2023, IEA says, Simon Yuen, PV Tech, April 18 2023, https://www.pv-tech.org/cleanenergy-accounts-for-10-of-global-gdp-growth-in-2023-iea-says/
50. Stardust Power breaks ground on $1.2 billion refinery in Oklahoma, 24 Jan 2025, Chemanalyst News, https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/ NewsDetails/stardust-power-breaks-ground-on-1-2-billion-lithium-refineryin-oklahoma-34093
51. Measuring the Economic Impacts of Wind Projects in Wyoming, Christelle Khalaf, University of Wyoming 2022 https://www.uwyo.edu/ser/ research/centers-of-excellence/energy-regulation-policy/_files/windenergy-report.pdf
52. Wyoming senators reject moratorium on wind and solar, pro-CO2 bill, Carrie Haderlie, Wyoming Tribune-Eagle, Feb 4 2025, https://www.yahoo. com/news/wyoming-senators-reject-moratorium-wind-024700394.html
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