The State of Sustainable Aviation Technologies 2024

CONT THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

8

REASONS TO INVEST IN SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

10

INTRODUCTION

14

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

16

WHY WE NEED TO URGENTLY DECARBONISE

18

WHAT'S AVIATION CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

19

HOW GLOBAL WARMING WILL AFFECT AVIATION

21

WHY AVIATION IS CONSIDERED HARD TO DECARBONISE

22

REGULATORS & INDUSTRY GIANTS ARE CREATING THE RIGHT INVESTMENT CLIMATE

24

2

TENTS JULY 2024

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS

28

SAF TRAILBLAZERS

34

THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

46

ELECTRIC BREAKTHROUGHS

56

CDR

66

SUSTAINABLE CABIN PIONEERS

78

RETROFITTING REVOLUTIONARIES

88

ECO-FRIENDLY AIRPORTS

96

SOFTWARE AND AI SOLUTIONS

106

THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

115

GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS

118

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

WELCOME For over 15 years, SimpliFlying has been a trusted partner to airlines, airports, and technology firms worldwide. We have been on a mission to help build trust in aviation. To empower the industry to soar to new heights through digitalisation, innovation, and a steadfast commitment to sustainability.

We're not just sought after strategy consultants, we are passionate advocates for meaningful change. Headquartered in Singapore, our global team based out of Canada, India, Spain and the UK is dedicated to equipping aviation and technology executives with the tools, insights, and strategies needed to navigate the complexities of sustainable aviation.

From major airlines and airports to aircraft manufacturers and travel technology companies, our extensive client base underscores our reputation as a trusted partner in the aviation industry since 2008.

4

HOW CAN WE HELP?

INTRODUCING

THE SIMPLIFLYING LAUNCHPAD Initially launched in 2020 as an accelerator programme, the SimpliFlying Launchpad addressed pressing industry concerns around COVID-19 restrictions and rebuilding public trust in travel health.

Several dozen startups successfully passed through the Launchpad, with many piloting their initiatives alongside partner airports and airlines.

Today, the industry faces a new credibility challenge: climate change.

In response, we've reinvented the Launchpad to connect cutting-edge sustainable technologies with the aviation sector. The program's core mission is to

identify and cultivate promising startups developing solutions to significantly mitigate air travel's environmental impact.

The revamped Launchpad focuses on eight critical areas of innovation: 1

Sustainable aviation fuels

2

Carbon capture

3

Electric propulsion

4

Eco-friendly infrastructure

5

Hydrogen technology

6

Sustainable cabin solutions

7

Retrofitting and

8

AI-driven efficiency improvement

How is it different?

The Launchpad's unique value proposition lies in its curated approach.

For aviation stakeholders: The Launchpad fosters collaboration with emerging technologies. Through structured support, expert mentorship, and access to resources, we help global airlines and airports de-risk assumptions, validate green innovations, and transition from plain demos to successful adoptions.

For investors: It offers access to pre-screened, cutting-edge startups building nextgeneration technologies in sustainable aviation.

For startups: It is the fastest ways to pilot with airlines and airports globally, presenting a rare opportunity to gain momentum in a traditionally conservative industry.

The programme has cultivated a robust ecosystem comprising major corporations, investors, industry experts, and strategic partners. This network is poised to accelerate the development and adoption of sustainable aviation technologies.

Interested in joining the Launchpad as an investor, airline, airport, or startup?

CONTACT US

LEARN MORE

5

THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Separating the signal from the noise in sustainable travel through the industry’s leading podcast, book, and newsletters.

Podcast with first-hand insights from industry leaders Hosted by Shashank Nigam, CEO and Founder of SimpliFlying Launched in 2022, our podcast provides a platform for open dialogue on sustainability strategies and aviation’s path to net zero. Featuring over 90 distinguished guest speakers, like Scott Kirby (United Airlines), Marie Owens Thomsen (IATA), and Amelia DeLuca (Delta Air Lines), we bring honest perspectives and best practices from the heart of the industry.

Listen Now

The book showcasing stories of innovation and change Co-authored by Shashank Nigam and Dirk Singer, Head of Sustainability at SimpliFlying Discover the inspiring stories of pioneers within aviation and climate tech as they tackle climate challenges and lead the charge toward a more sustainable future. This groundbreaking book is a must-read for anyone passionate about the future of aviation.

Get your copy

Knowledge Hub: Your go-to source for the latest in sustainable aviation Our Sustainability in the Air platform offers a wealth of resources, including weekly articles on cutting-edge sustainable aviation brands and tech startups, comprehensive reports on topics like SAF and eVTOLs, and newsletters that thousands of industry professionals trust to keep them updated on the fast-evolving sustainable aviation landscape.

Explore the hub

6

HOW CAN WE HELP?

HOW CAN WE HELP? At SimpliFlying, we're committed to helping you navigate the complexities of sustainable aviation and thrive in an ever-changing landscape.

Here are some ways we can help you in your sustainability journey:

Share your vision with a global audience Like 80+ other CxOs in the industry, enlist your CEO or Head of Sustainability to be interviewed by Shashank Nigam. Share your vision for the future of travel on the world’s best-known sustainable aviation podcast "Sustainability in the Air". Find out more on becoming a partner.

Grow your brand in aviation SimpliFlying has helped a multitude of technology firms scale up in aviation – from launching an airplane to marketing an Airbus A380 engine. We can help you amplify your brand and help build awareness with key decision-makers.

Stay informed, stay ahead We deliver in-depth monthly or quarterly briefings to the senior leadership teams on a topic/issue of your choosing. You can also sign up for a series of briefings that cover key aspects of the present and future of sustainable aviation.

Discover the next wave of sustainable travel technology The SimpliFlying Launchpad brings ready-to-scale technologies that can help accelerate sustainable travel to decision-makers in aviation. We curate the best startups and scaleups, help them build an aviation-specific brand strategy, and introduce them to airlines and airports ready to put a pilot in place.

Connect sustainable tech startups with investors and industry SimpliFlying Immersions pioneer a new era of real-life connections through immersive experiences, deep learning, and cutting-edge innovation exchange. We do this by facilitating site visits and bringing aviation leaders to startup facilities to offer a platform for tangible collaborations to take shape.

Stay Informed. Stay Ahead. green.simpliflying.com

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The aviation industry faces urgent pressure to decarbonise. While its contribution to global carbon emissions is estimated at 2.5%, that number rises to 4% when non-CO2 emissions are considered.

Recognising the critical nature of the climate crisis, the industry is exploring several technology levers to decarbonise.

In the short to medium term, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is crucial for near-term decarbonisation. The SAF market is projected to grow from $430 million to over $27 billion by 2032, driven by regulatory mandates and industry commitments.

Hydrogen presents a promising long-term solution for aviation, with potential applications in fuel cells, combustion engines, and e-fuel production. The global hydrogen market across all industries could reach $1.4 trillion by 2050.

Electric aviation shows potential for short-haul flights and regional connectivity.

The electric aviation market is expected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2023 to $23.5 billion by 2031, focusing on battery technology advancements and infrastructure development.

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, including Direct Air Capture (DAC), are gaining traction as complementary solutions to emissions reduction efforts. The CDR market could reach $1.2 trillion by 2050.

Sustainable cabin design and waste reduction present significant opportunities, with the aircraft cabin interiors market projected to reach $74 billion by 2033.

EXECUTIVE 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Retrofitting existing aircraft with clean technologies offers a faster path to emissions reduction, particularly for smaller aircraft and regional fleets.

Airport infrastructure is evolving to support sustainability goals, with the global green airport market expected to reach $12 billion by 2032.

Software and AI solutions play a crucial role in optimising flight operations, reducing fuel consumption, and mitigating non-CO2 impacts like contrail formation.

Key challenges across all these sectors include high costs, technological limitations, and the need for significant infrastructure development.

Regulatory pressures and market demands are driving innovation and investment opportunities across the sustainable aviation landscape.

The transition to sustainable aviation represents not just an environmental imperative but also a significant market opportunity, with potential for growth and innovation in various interconnected technologies and sectors.

Given the urgency of the climate crisis – and the aviation industry’s net zero 2050 target – investors have the opportunity to participate in the industry's transformation while potentially reaping substantial returns in a market primed for disruption.

As a result, we are introducing the SimpliFlying Launchpad that focuses on nurturing startups in key sustainable aviation areas, aiming to accelerate the adoption of sustainable technologies and connect innovative solutions with industry needs.

SUMMARY 9

THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

REASONS TO INVEST IN SUSTAINABLE AVIATION Soar into a booming market •

The aviation market is projected to reach $396.15 billion by 2029.

•

Expected CAGR of 2.87% from 2024-2029. It is a growing market that needs to be decarbonised to hit 2050 targets.

•

Significant growth expected in emerging markets, particularly in South Asia and the Far East.

Ride the green regulatory wave •

There is a global push for aviation decarbonisation through mandates and incentives.

•

Increasing regulatory pressure in Europe, with indications of similar trends in China and India.

Sustainable aviation fuel: fuel fossil-free flight •

Potential to reduce lifecycle emissions by 80% or more compared to conventional jet fuel.

•

The SAF market is to grow to over $27 billion by 2032, driven by regulatory mandates and industry commitments.

Hydrogen: the sky-high revolution •

Hydrogen fuel cells could reduce emissions by 75-90% while making aircraft cheaper to operate.

•

Companies like ZeroAvia are targeting commercial hydrogen-electric flights this decade.

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REASONS TO INVEST IN SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

Batteries: powering up aviation's potential •

Annual improvements of 5-8% in battery energy density over the past decade.

•

Approaching the 400-500 Wh/kg threshold for viable electric aircraft.

•

Advancements benefit both aviation, maritime and electric vehicle sectors.

Streamlining the skies: efficiency takes flight •

New aircraft designs and materials reduce fuel consumption by 15-20%.

•

Opportunities in aerodynamics and lightweight materials.

CDR: capturing opportunities in carbon tech •

Growing interest from policymakers and investors.

•

Driven by regulatory pressure, demand for carbon-neutral products, and technological advancements.

•

Potential for cost reductions and wider adoption.

Sustainable cabin design: elevating eco-friendly interiors •

Aircraft cabin interiors are projected to reach $38.85 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%.

•

Innovations in sustainable materials, such as recycled plastics and bio-based composites, reducing the carbon footprint of cabin components.

•

Regulatory and public pressures to stop the use of Single Use Plastics (SUPPS) creates a need for alternatives.

THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Airport infrastructure: building the gateways of tomorrow •

The global smart airport market size is expected to reach $25.09 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 10.7%

•

Electric ground support equipment (eGSE) is rapidly being adopted.

•

Airports need renewable energy resources leading to the potential for airport-only grids..Innovative materials such as carbon-capturing concrete can be deployed.

Digital solutions: optimising aviation for sustainability •

AI-driven predictive maintenance can reduce aircraft downtime and cut maintenance costs.

•

Data can help airlines avoid contrails, and make an immediate outsized impact on aviation’s emissions footprint.

•

Digital platforms for collaborative decision-making between airports, airlines, and air traffic control can significantly reduce delays and associated emissions.

Climate tech: the next unicorn frontier •

Industry leaders predict significant growth in climate tech unicorns.

•

Significant opportunities will arise from an industry-wide shift away from fossil fuels.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

INTRODUCTION Some environmentalists argue that a reliance on climate tech is a distraction – a series of unproven fixes with hefty price tags that delay necessary societal changes.

This report presents a different perspective: one that says climate technologies promise a cleaner and better world.

Our new offering – the SimpliFlying Launchpad – stands at the forefront of this transformation, offering promising startups in eight critical areas a direct conduit to airlines for technology demonstrations and investors for funding opportunities.

These eight areas, ranging from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to AI-driven efficiency solutions, represent the most urgent innovations needed to decarbonise aviation and meet targets.

The backdrop to all this is the wider renewables revolution, which in turn is powering the proliferation of new technologies and solutions.

14

An Oxford University study suggests a decarbonised energy system could save the world $12 trillion by 2050. In aviation, innovations like electric aircraft have the potential to usher in a new era of air travel, revitalising thousands of dormant airfields and providing communities with cheaper, quieter, and cleaner transportation options.

The potential in this sector is immense.

Seasoned climate tech investor Sean O'Sullivan anticipates the creation of at least 500 unicorns – companies valued at $1 billion or more – in the sustainable tech realm. As major industries reinvent themselves, aviation stands to be a significant beneficiary of this innovation wave.

At SimpliFlying we have had the privilege of discovering and engaging with remarkable startups in this space. I've talked to and profiled dozens of them; their stories inspire me.

INTRODUCTION

The passion, ingenuity, and commitment to making a real difference in these founders and their teams give me immense hope for the future. It's what makes me an optimist in the face of the climate challenge. With the right support and connections, these innovators can transform aviation for the better.

This report introduces each of the eight focus areas of the SimpliFlying Launchpad.

For each sector, we examine the overall problem it aims to address, review the innovative solutions being developed, and spotlight companies to watch. From next-generation batteries and carbon capture technologies to sustainable cabin solutions, we explore how these innovations can benefit the aviation industry.

The SimpliFlying Launchpad is more than just an accelerator program; it's a bridge connecting technologies with the industry's pressing needs. By facilitating direct interactions between startups, airlines, and investors, it aims to accelerate the adoption of climate technologies in aviation, driving the industry towards a sustainable future.

Our report serves as both a guide to the technologies shaping this future and an invitation to participate in this transformative journey.

Whether you're an investor seeking the next big opportunity, an airline looking to stay ahead of the sustainability curve, or a startup with a game-changing idea, the SimpliFlying Launchpad offers a unique platform to turn climate tech potential into aviation reality.

Dirk Singer Head of Sustainability, SimpliFlying dirk@simpliflying.com

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

IS READY TO BOOM

Photo by Maria Victoria Portelles Unsplash

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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM: WHY THE SIMPLIFYING LAUNCHPAD EXISTS The promise of sustainable aviation is compelling: It aims to extend the benefits of global mobility as expressed through air travel to billions while simultaneously addressing the urgent challenge of climate change.

For investors, this represents a chance to drive innovation, shape the future of transportation, and potentially reap substantial returns in a market primed for disruption.

In this section, we’ll talk about why we launched the SimpliFlying launchpad and why action is needed now before looking at our eight focus areas.

Source: Abram-Petros CC0 | Wikimedia Commons

Aviation has revolutionised our world, transforming lengthy, exclusive journeys into efficient global connections. This advancement has democratised international travel, bringing cultural, economic, and social benefits. It has facilitated business deals, cultural exchanges, and global tourism, injecting vital funds into local economies worldwide.

Friendships and families have been forged across continents, breaking down geographical barriers.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

WHY WE NEED TO URGENTLY DECARBONISE The most urgent issue that aviation faces today is global warming. The climate crisis is already wreaking havoc on the planet and aviation is increasingly seen as a large contributor to it.

•

2023 shattered temperature records, marking the hottest year on record, driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

•

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reached an alarming 424 parts per million, the highest in human history and likely the highest in millions of years.

•

This unprecedented CO2 level traps heat, Source: NOAA NCEI fueling extreme weather events worldwide. Heatwaves scorched continents, wildfires raged uncontrollably, and droughts parched vast regions.

While the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set an ambitious goal to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, climate scientists warn that we are unlikely to make that, with most estimating warming to be 2-3 Celsius, in line with predictions made by the Climate Action Tracker.

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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

If they come to pass, these changes will severely affect human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Increased heat waves will lead to more heat-related illnesses and deaths, particularly in vulnerable populations.

More frequent heavy rainfall will increase the risk of flooding, while more frequent droughts will threaten food security and water availability. Ecosystems will face

increased stress, potentially leading to biodiversity loss and changes in species distribution. Coastal areas will be at higher risk due to sea-level rise and more intense storms.

Migration, already a hot-button political issue in much of the Global North, will become even more acute as hundreds of millions find they live in increasingly inhospitable areas of the world.

WHAT IS AVIATION’S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE?

Every time we fly we burn carbon, contributing to the effects of global warming. But industry leaders often point out that aviation contributes 2-3% of global greenhouse emissions, less than industries like iron and steel (7.2%) or livestock and nature (5.8%).

So how responsible is the aviation industry and is the focus on it unfair?

Is it, as former Spirit Airlines CEO Ben Baldanza has claimed, due to an “availability bias” where aviation is targeted because it’s very visible?

The ‘only 2% argument’ argument is somewhat misleading given that: •

That 2% figure does not take into account non-CO2 emissions. Once you include that, the real total is 4-5%.

•

Only 20% of the world’s population has flown, meaning that the benefits of aviation are unequally shared.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

•

Meanwhile, 1% of the world’s population accounts for 50% of industry emissions. Even in countries like the USA, which depend heavily on air travel for connectivity, a small proportion of the population accounts for most flights.

•

Aviation's share is growing rapidly. With commercial aircraft numbers potentially increasing from 25,000 to over 40,000 by 2030 and worldwide air passenger journeys nearly doubling to eight billion annually by 2040, the industry faces a critical juncture.

•

As an individual, flying is disproportionately carbon intensive.

According to German non-profit Atmosfair, a single London-to-New York flight can elevate an individual's carbon footprint above the annual average for people in 56 countries.

•

If current trends continue, air transport could account for 22% of all global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, especially as other sectors like automotive and power make strides in decarbonisation.

Source: ScienceDirect

This trajectory is unsustainable and increasingly unacceptable to the public and policymakers alike. As Rome Airports CEO Marco Troncone noted, industries like aviation will face diminishing tolerance for pollution in the coming years. Any acceptance will hinge on credible decarbonisation efforts.

This shift isn't limited to Europe. Released in June 2024, the UN's climate opinion poll reveals that majorities in 77 countries, including fossil fuel producers, support transitioning away from fossil fuels.

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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

HOW GLOBAL WARMING WILL AFFECT AVIATION The aviation industry must confront climate change challenges head-on. The questions being asked now will only intensify over the next decade, demanding innovative solutions and decisive action from industry leaders and stakeholders.

Moreover, the aviation industry itself won’t be immune from the effects of climate change.

Global warming directly threatens operations and profits.

Climate Change's Impact on Aviation

Bottom Line: Whether the aviation industry acknowledges it or not, climate change poses a significant threat to its future. In fact, if they have not already done so, companies in this sector should start resiliency planning of what their operations might look like in the coming decades as the effects of climate change become more acute.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

WHY AVIATION IS CONSIDERED HARD TO DECARBONISE Aviation faces a number of unique challenges in its decarbonisation journey.

This is thanks to aircraft longevity and specific aviation fuel requirements.

This extended lifespan significantly impacts the industry's ability to implement greener technologies. The slow fleet turnover rate means efficiency and emissions reduction improvements take years to impact the global fleet substantially.

Aircraft in 2050 will likely resemble those flying today, owing to their two to three decades-long lifespan. This contrasts Moreover, the industry's commitment sharply with the automotive industry, where to current technologies complicates the vehicle turnover occurs every 10-15 years. transition to alternatives like hydrogen.

Despite developing a hydrogen aircraft, Looking at Airbus, its December 2023 Airbus has indicated that the A320's backlog of 8,599 aircraft is expected successor will still rely on kerosene or – at to grow with upcoming air shows, which underscores this issue. These planes, slated best – sustainable aviation fuel. for delivery this decade, will largely remain operational until 2050 and beyond.

The good news? Change is possible.

We believe change is possible – the current revolution in renewables points the way.

California, the world’s fifth-largest economy, achieved a significant milestone in spring 2024 by running entirely on renewable energy for extended periods. This demonstrated the potential of solar and wind power to meet the demands of a large population centre and economic hub.

The key to this has been the fall in the prices of solar energy.

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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

It was considered eccentric when US President Jimmy Carter placed 32 solar panels on the White House East Wing in June 1979.

At the time, solar energy wasn’t perceived as an answer to America’s energy needs, particularly because the energy from the panels cost a whopping $36 per watt.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the much more fossil-fuel-friendly Reagan administration that followed took the panels down.

Small wonder that Larry Fink, the chairman and CEO of Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, said that - “The next 1,000 unicorns (startups that achieve a valuation of $1 billion or more) won’t be search engines or social media companies, they’ll be sustainable, scalable innovators – startups that help the world decarbonise and make the energy transition affordable for all consumers.”

As the world transitions towards a lowBut many years have passed since then, and carbon future, climate tech is poised to become a major economic force, driving the situation has changed. By 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that sustainability and prosperity. solar, at less than $0.20 per watt, was the Looking specifically at aviation, we see “cheapest electricity in history” – even an opportunity for investors to be part cheaper than fossil fuels in most countries. of that transformation for good while benefiting from involvement in high-growth Investors have played a key role in driving companies. that change, investing in everything from new battery technology to electric cars, green steel, and renewables.

According to Pitchbook, Q1 2024 saw record investment into the climate tech space, with $8.1 billion flowing into the sector.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

REGULATORS AND INDUSTRY GIANTS ARE CREATING THE RIGHT INVESTMENT CLIMATE An evolving regulatory landscape is reshaping the aviation market and creating new imperatives for innovation, strategic adaptation, and investor opportunities.

Key regulatory frameworks include: •

EU's "Fit for 55" Package: This comprehensive set of proposals aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. For aviation, it includes ReFuelEU Aviation, which mandates increasing levels of sustainable aviation fuel blending, starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 70% by 2050.

•

Revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS): Proposes phasing out free emission allowances for aviation and implementing a more stringent cap on allowances.

•

CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation): Adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), CORSIA aims to stabilise CO2 emissions at 2020 levels. From 2027, participation will be mandatory for all international flights between the 193 ICAO member states. In practice, airlines monitor and report their emissions. If their emissions exceed their 2020 baseline, they must buy carbon credits from approved environmental projects or use approved sustainable aviation fuels to offset the difference.

•

The UK targets net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, with a SAF mandate starting in 2025.

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In the United States, the proposed Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge aims for 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030.

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Japan will require a 10% SAF blend by 2030 for international flights.

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Though Australia has yet to commit to a mandate, the government is investing significant money to support local SAF and green hydrogen production.

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There are reports that China will introduce its own SAF blending mandate, requiring 5% use by 2030.

•

Airlines have agreed to a 5% ‘green fuel’ target by 2030 in the Asia-Pacific region.

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SUSTAINABLE AVIATION IS READY TO BOOM

•

At the same time, India has set targets for SAF use on international flights of 1% by 2027 and 2% by 2028. If these targets turn into a mandate, the potential volume of SAF needed will be significant, given that India is the world’s largest aviation growth market.

•

Several countries, such as Denmark and Norway, will ban fossil-fuel-powered domestic flights from 2040.

Source: Don-Vip | Wikimedia Commons

These regulatory frameworks are creating a strong impetus for climate tech innovation and adoption in aviation: Market creation: Mandates for SAF and emissions reduction create guaranteed markets for sustainable technologies.

Investment stimulus: Clear regulatory targets provide investors with certainty, stimulating capital flow into aviation climate tech.

Innovation incentives: Stringent future targets drive R&D in advanced technologies like electric and hydrogen propulsion.

Level playing field: Global schemes like CORSIA help ensure sustainability efforts don't create competitive disadvantages, encouraging widespread adoption.

As these regulations tighten over time, they will continue accelerating the transition towards sustainable aviation, presenting significant opportunities for innovative climate tech solutions.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Collaboration with industry giants is helping to foster innovation One of the cornerstones of the SimpliFlying Launchpad is collaboration, which is a powerful catalyst for change in sustainable aviation.

Partnerships between startups, established aviation companies, and research institutions are driving rapid advancements in technology and operational efficiency.

These collaborations leverage each partner's unique strengths: - Startups bring agility and fresh ideas - Established companies provide industry expertise and resources and - Research institutions contribute cutting-edge scientific knowledge This synergy accelerates innovation, shares risks, and expedites the path to commercialisation.

Notable examples of successful partnerships include: •

Airbus with US-based startup Advent Technologies on a $13 million project to develop and optimise Advent's Ion Pair™ Membrane Electrode Assembly (MEA). MEAs are a crucial component in hydrogen fuel cells, influencing factors like efficiency, weight, and cost. This collaboration aims to support Airbus' goal of deploying hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft by the middle of the next decade.

•

The winner of Fast Company’s 2024 World Changing Ideas Awards in the impact investing category, the United Airlines Sustainable Flight Fund brings together 22 corporate partners to invest in sustainable aviation fuel startups.

•

Automotive giants Stellantis (with Archer), Toyota (with Joby), and Hyundai (with Supernal) have invested in and are working with electric air taxi startups to help these companies manufacture at scale once their aircraft have been certified.

Source: United Airlines

Looking ahead, we anticipate new collaboration models emerging, potentially involving cross-industry partnerships with sectors like renewable energy and digital technology.

These partnerships will be crucial in addressing complex challenges, such as infrastructure development for new propulsion technologies.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

& IMPACT AREAS

Photo by Skyler Smith Unsplash

28

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS Decarbonising aviation by 2050 will cost about $5 trillion, covering a range of technologies and infrastructure. Rather than a scattergun approach, we need to focus on the areas where the biggest impact can be made.

At SimpliFlying, we have identified eight investment theses that are key to reaching that net zero target. They form the basis of our SimpliFlying Launchpad, and we explore them in detail in this report.

Here's an overview:

1. SAF trailblazers With the 2050 aircraft fleet looking much like today's, we need a fuel alternative compatible with current technology. SAF, or 'Sustainable aviation fuel,' is crucial for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Source: Rolls-Royce

2. Hydrogen hub Green hydrogen, produced from renewable energy, is essential for producing e-fuels covered by EU and UK SAF mandates. Hydrogen also shows promise as a next-generation propulsion system.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an annual demand of 306 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2050, with aviation requiring 50 million tonnes. This represents significant growth potential, given that less than 1% of current hydrogen production is green.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

3. Electric breakthroughs

6. Retrofitting revolutionaries

Battery electric flight promises zeroemission operations, with aircraft that are cheaper to run and significantly quieter, offering noise and environmental pollution benefits. The aviation electric battery market is expected to reach USD 10.48 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2023 to 2030.

Retrofitting ageing aircraft with new technology and zero-emission propulsion systems gives them a new lease of life.

Given an aircraft's several-decade lifespan, it’s also arguably the fastest way to decarbonise much of the existing aviation fleet.

4. Sustainable cabin pioneers IATA estimates the sector generated 3.6 million tonnes of waste (including plastics) in 2023, most of which ended up in landfills or incineration.

There's potential to make cabin elements, such as seats, both lighter (saving fuel) and more sustainable. The aircraft seating market alone is projected to grow from $7.61 billion in 2024 to $11.83 billion by 2032 at a 5.67% CAGR.

5. Carbon capture pioneers Carbon capture, whether from the atmosphere via Direct Air Capture (DAC) or at industrial sources, plays a vital role in decarbonisation. It's a key ingredient in next-generation Power-to-Liquid fuels or e-fuels.

As carbon offsetting faces reputational challenges, capturing carbon offers a more credible, albeit expensive, way to offset emissions.

Aircraft modernisation also represents a major business opportunity worth over $5 billion annually.

7. Eco friendly infrastructure In 2021-2022, 230 airport construction projects worth $160 billion commenced.

New airports face increasing pressure to prioritise sustainability, from renewable energy grids to ground transportation electrification and even carbon-capturing concrete for runways.

8. Software & AI solutions Software and AI can optimise flight plans, saving fuel and CO2 emissions. These tools can also mitigate non-CO2 emissions by altering flight altitudes to avoid contrail formation. Accounting for these non-CO2 emissions increases aviation's share of global warming from 2.5% to 4%.

The carbon capture, utilisation, and storage industry is projected to grow from $6.73 billion in 2023 to $68 billion by 2036, expanding at over 20% CAGR from 2024 to 2036.

Source: Climeworks

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS

Investment focus SAF trailblazers • • •

Novel SAF production pathways Disruptive power-to-liquid technologies Innovative feedstock solutions

Hydrogen hub •

Green hydrogen production technologies

•

Hydrogen storage and distribution systems for aviation

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Hydrogen fuel cell development for aircraft Novel ways of producing clean hydrogen, including geothermal

Electric breakthroughs • • •

Novel battery technologies for aviation Electric propulsion system development Charging infrastructure for electric aircraft

Sustainable cabin pioneers • • •

Retrofitting revolutionaries

Carbon capture pioneers • • •

Novel, more efficient carbon capture methods Scalable carbon capture technologies Integration of captured carbon in SAF production

• • •

Eco friendly infrastructure • • • •

Airport renewable grids Ground vehicle electrification Smart taxiing solutions Sustainable materials

Novel seat and cabin interior materials Recycling and circular economy solutions Waste reduction in catering

Hydrogen retrofit solutions for existing aircraft Electric propulsion retrofits for smaller aircraft Aerodynamic upgrades for fuel efficiency

Software & AI Solutions • • • •

AI-driven fuel efficiency software Emissions-reducing route optimisation Predictive maintenance Contrail reduction tools

Each area presents significant opportunities for investors to capitalise on aviation's urgent need for sustainable solutions. By aligning with these key focus areas, investors can contribute to aviation decarbonisation while positioning themselves at the forefront of a rapidly growing, transforming industry.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

To explore these critical focus areas in greater detail and unlock actionable strategies, purchase the full report today The journey ahead will have its share of turbulence, but with the right approach, we're convinced that the sustainable aviation sector can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger.

For investors, entrepreneurs, and aviation stakeholders willing to join this journey, the potential rewards remain enormous, both financially and in contributing to a greener, more sustainable future for global aviation.

Why you should invest in the full report: Premium insights Access in-depth analysis of the most promising areas and pioneers in sustainable aviation technologies

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Our 119 page investor brief offers detailed analysis, investment insights, and success criteria, giving investors the knowledge and strategies to capitalise on sustainable aviation's rapid growth.

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Photo by William Topa on Unsplash

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

SAF TRAILBLAZERS Executive summary Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is crucial for aviation decarbonisation. The SAF market is projected to grow from $430 million to over $27 billion by 2032.

The EU has mandated increasing percentages of SAF blending, reaching 70% by 2050.

Significant scaling of SAF production is needed to meet 2030 targets, requiring nearly a tenfold increase in SAF plants within six years.

First-generation HEFA-based SAF faces limitations in scalability and feedstock availability.

Second-generation SAF includes Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and municipal waste-to-fuel pathways but faces efficiency and land use concerns.

Third-generation SAFs, particularly e-fuels (power-to-liquid), show promise for carbon neutrality and compatibility with existing infrastructure. However, they face challenges in energy requirements and current high production costs.

Investment opportunities lie in disruptive second and third-generation SAF technologies, including: • • • •

Innovative feedstocks grown on marginal lands More efficient e-fuel production methods E-methanol as a potentially simpler alternative Strategic location of production facilities in areas with cheap renewable energy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 34

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

Introduction By 2030, the number of commercial aircraft in operation is expected to increase from 25,000 to over 40,000. This growth presents a significant challenge for emissions reduction.

Most of these aircraft, primarily narrow and wide-body models from Airbus and Boeing, rely on technology that has existed for over 50 years – kerosene-powered jet engines.

This reliance on conventional jet fuel necessitates a shift towards a more sustainable solution that can work seamlessly with existing aircraft and engine infrastructure.

To address this, the industry is turning to sustainable aviation fuel, a non-fossilfuel-based alternative that can directly replace conventional jet fuel.

Source: Honeywell

The SAF market is projected to surge from $430 million to over $27 billion by 2032, propelled by European and UK mandates.

China and other areas of the world are poised to follow suit. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.8% over the decade.

SAF is derived from various raw materials, or feedstocks, offering a range of production pathways. Currently, the most common feedstocks are waste oils and used

cooking oil. However, the industry is also exploring other promising options, including fuel crops, agricultural waste, municipal waste, and – most notably – e-fuels.

Also known as Power-to-Liquid fuels, e-fuels, made from renewable energy and captured CO2, represent a particularly promising avenue for SAF production due to their potential for scalability and significant emissions reduction.

Current state of SAF adoption in the aviation industry SAF adoption is gaining traction, albeit from a low base.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that SAF could contribute to approximately 65% of the emissions reductions required for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This projection highlights the critical role SAF is expected to play in the industry's decarbonisation efforts.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

In support of this transition, ambitious mandates are being implemented globally.

The European Union, for instance, has mandated a 70% SAF blend in jet fuel by 2050. This means that by 2050, only 30% of aviation fuel will be kerosene-based Jet A. Similar mandates are emerging in other regions, signalling a growing regulatory push for SAF adoption.

Despite this progress, significant challenges impede widespread SAF adoption.

Production levels are notably insufficient to meet projected targets.

At the May 2024 SAF Congress in Amsterdam, Dick Benschop, interim CEO of Mission Possible Partnership, emphasised the scale of the challenge. According to Benschop, there are currently only 33 facilities producing SAF at a commercial scale worldwide, with around 130 more announced. However, to achieve the 2030 targets, approximately 300 SAF plants are needed globally.

This production gap is particularly evident when considering current SAF blending rates. While both the EU and the UK have mandated a 10% SAF blend by 2030, the current blend rate is, at best, around 0.5%.

This discrepancy underscores the urgent need for investment and innovation in SAF production to meet regulatory requirements and industry sustainability goals.

However, recent research suggests that even aggressive SAF adoption may not be sufficient to meet long-term climate goals without additional measures.

In particular, a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) highlights the scale of the challenge that the industry faces. Key findings include:

36

• 1 The current in-service fleet is projected to emit about 9 billion tonnes of CO2 before retirement, consuming nearly half of aviation's net-zero carbon budget.

•2 Even with optimistic projections for SAF adoption and efficiency improvements, the remaining carbon budget could be exhausted by 2037.

•3 To meet climate goals, all new aircraft delivered by the mid-2030s must have zero net CO2 emissions throughout their operational lifetimes.

•4 Through 2042, at least 10,000 new aircraft powered by hydrogen, electricity, or 100% SAF will be needed.

•5 Significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) may be necessary, with estimates ranging from 5 to 22 billion tonnes of CO2 needing removal - far exceeding current global CDR capacity.

These findings underscore the critical role of SAF in aviation's decarbonisation efforts and highlight the need for parallel development of zero-emission aircraft technologies and CDR solutions, themes we address later in this report.

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

Types of SAF and their production pathways Generally, the different feedstocks (raw materials) and pathways (ways of making the fuel) can be grouped into three SAF ‘generations.’

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production pathways

First-generation SAF First-generation fuels primarily utilise Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) to make biofuels.

HEFA converts oils from plants or animals into jet fuel and is currently the most commercially viable SAF option. Waste oils, such as used cooking oils and waste fats, offer the dual benefit of waste reduction and sustainable fuel production.

The vast majority of SAF comes from this pathway. Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming online over the next five years are expected to be HEFA-based.

Source: Michel Chedid

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

However, this pathway presents several problems around feedstock provenance and availability.

•1

Environmental think tank Transport & Environment has pointed out that most Used Cooking Oil (UCO) in Europe is imported from the Far East, particularly China and Malaysia. There are question marks about whether palm oil is entering the mix.

•2

Even with imports, there’s a ceiling on how much SAF can be produced this way.

Estimates show that by 2050, at most 10% of SAF can be HEFA-based.

•3

Major energy companies looking to turn waste oil to SAF have delayed their plans.

This includes oil giants BP and Shell. Meanwhile, Finnish company Neste, the leader in the SAF space, has seen its share price halve. This is due to questions about the technology and profitability. HEFA-based biofuels can cost 2x as much as conventional jet fuel, so only Government mandates where there’s a requirement to use them will realistically spur their adoption.

Second-generation SAF Second-generation SAF expands the feedstock options to include municipal solid waste, agricultural residues, and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) pathways.

Alcohol to Jet (ATJ) involves feedstocks like miscanthus, switchgrass, jatropha (all fuel crops), or materials like wheat straw, rice husks, and forestry residues.

Through a process similar to fermentation used in beer or wine production, these renewable sources are converted into ethanol, a clean-burning alcohol.

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

The ethanol then undergoes further processing to create a fuel with properties very similar to conventional jet fuel.

The Freedom Pines Fuels plant, from LanzaTech, is the world's first commercial Alcoholto-Jet (ATJ) facility. It is located in Soperton, Georgia.

There are generally two concerns around ATJ: •1

Efficiency compared to HEFA. In general, more feedstocks are required to produce SAF, but ATJ feedstocks are cheaper and have better availability.

•2

Large-scale production of ethanol feedstocks for ATJ could potentially lead to increased competition for land currently used for food production. This could increase food prices and threaten food security, especially in developing countries.

Source: Fulcrum Bioenergy

The other second-generation SAF that has shown promise involves turning municipal waste into fuel.

Waste is taken to a facility and sorted into organic waste, which can be used as a feedstock. It is then turned into fuel using one of two processes or pathways.

•1

Fischer Tropsch (FT): A 100-year-old method of creating synthetic fuels in which organic waste is converted into a synthetic gas (syngas). This syngas then goes through a Fischer-Tropsch reactor, turning it into a liquid fuel resembling jet fuel.

•2

Pyrolysis: The organic waste is heated in a controlled environment with limited oxygen. This process breaks it down into three components: bio-oil, char, and syngas.

The bio-oil or syngas then undergoes further refining to create SAF.

Though the idea of taking waste that would otherwise end up in landfills and turning it into fuel sounds attractive, several municipal waste-to-fuel companies have encountered problems.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Most notably, Fulcrum Bioenergy, which operated a waste-to-fuel plant in Reno, Nevada, with the support of (among others) United Airlines, went under in June 2024.

Questions were raised about how market-ready the technology was to operate at scale and the capital required to build and maintain the plants and produce the fuel.

However, some companies continue to pursue MSW as a promising pathway to fuel.

Notably, Canadian company Enerkem is building a waste-to-fuel facility in Quebec that can make 125 million litres of biofuel annually.

Third-generation SAF Third-generation fuels represent the cutting edge of SAF technology and focus on Power-to-Liquid (PtL) pathways.

This process harnesses renewable electricity to produce hydrogen, which is then combined with captured CO2 to create synthetic fuel.

Notably, authorities are actively promoting the use of e-fuels.

The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation targets synthetic fuels like e-fuels, requiring them to constitute at least 0.7% of the overall SAF blend by 2030. This percentage

gradually increases, reaching 8% by 2040 and 35% by 2050.

Most e-fuel is currently produced via the Fischer-Tropsch method, where syngas is put through a reactor. Some startups are now also looking at e-methanol, where carbon dioxide is combined with hydrogen from renewable sources (electrolysis) through a process called methanol synthesis.

The E-Fuel Production Process: From Renewables to Sustainable Aviation Fuel

"Renewable energy costs have fallen by 82% for solar PV and 39% for onshore wind since 2010." (IRENA) "Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity in most major countries." (BloombergNEF)

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"Green hydrogen production costs are expected to fall by up to 60% by 2030." (IEA) "Electrolyzer costs have decreased by 60% since 2010 and are projected to halve again by 2040." (IRENA)

"Direct Air Capture costs are projected to fall from $600-$1000 per tonne of CO2 today to $100-$300 by 2050."

(IEA) "The global carbon capture and storage market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.8% from 2021 to 2028."

(Grand View Research)

"The EU mandates that E-fuels must constitute at least 1.2% of aviation fuel by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050."

(European Union)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

Advantages of e-fuels • 1 Carbon neutrality: When produced using renewable energy sources, e-fuels can be virtually carbon neutral. CO2 is sucked out of the atmosphere, and the aircraft then produces CO2 when the fuel is burned. Some e-fuels companies claim a life cycle reduction of 95%+, meaning that e-fuels offer a nearenough circular solution.

•2 Energy density: They possess a high energy density, similar to conventional fuels. This translates to longer travel ranges for vehicles and aircraft using e-fuels, maintaining efficiency and performance.

•3 Storage and distribution: They can be easily stored and transported using existing infrastructure for liquid fuels.

•4 Potential for diverse applications: They can be used in various applications beyond transportation, such as industrial processes and heating systems, broadening their impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions across different sectors.

Disadvantages of e-fuels • 1 Energy use: Producing e-fuels requires more renewable energy than is currently available. Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr said that powering Lufthansa’s aircraft fleet by e-fuels would require half of Germany’s current electricity capacity.

Critics argue that this electricity could be more impactful when used for other industries.

•2 Cost: E-fuel production is currently more expensive than conventional fuels and even other kinds of SAF due to the technology and energy conversion process. Instead of being 2-3x more expensive than Jet A, it is about 5-7x higher. This can hinder wider adoption until production costs become more competitive.

•3 Scalability: Large-scale production of e-fuels requires significant investments in renewable energy infrastructure, green hydrogen and the ability to capture carbon dioxide.

Source: Arcadia eFuels

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Areas of focus At SimpliFlying, we are tracking and seeing investment potential in disruptive second – and third-generation SAF companies. This includes:

1. Innovative feedstocks Companies like Hexas are developing fuel crops that grow on marginal farmland so they do not impact the food supply chain. According to Wendy Owens, the company's founder and CEO, up to 83 million hectares of marginal and abandoned cropland worldwide – farmland that has been left idle due to over-fertilisation, high salination, and a lack of topsoil and nutrients – could be utilised.

2. More efficient e-fuel production Meanwhile, some e-fuel companies are also looking at newer production methods. Two e-fuel companies, Air Company and Infinium, have replaced the Fischer-Tropsch process with their own one-stage proprietary process.

Air Company has developed the Sheehan Single Step Process, named after its CoFounder and CEO, Dr. Staff Sheehan. In it, the need to turn CO2 into syngas is removed entirely. Instead, CO2 and H2 are combined directly in Air Company’s own reactor to produce ethanol (C2H6O).

According to Sheehan, this offers double the process energy efficiency of the older Fischer-Tropsch method of making synthetic Source: Air Company fuels.

3. E-methanol Efficiency and cost are also why some e-fuel startups, like Switzerland’s MetaFuels, believe in methanol. Unlike Fischer-Tropsch, e-methanol production typically involves a single step: combining captured CO2 with hydrogen (from renewable sources) through a process called methanol synthesis. This perceived simplicity can potentially lower production costs and complexity. Methanol is also as easy to transport and store as normal jet fuel.

4. Taking advantage of cheaper renewables The other area we are looking at is how to cheaply source renewable energy, which is needed to create green hydrogen to mix with CO2.

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

Source: HIF Global

For example, if electricity costs $0.05 per kWh in one location and $0.10 per kWh in another, that could potentially double the energy-related production costs.

Regions with abundant renewable resources, such as Ireland and western Spain, show potential for lower e-fuel production costs due to cheaper electricity and better availability of resources.

Some researchers even suggest producing e-fuels in remote locations like the Sahara or Inland Australia to reduce costs further.

Meanwhile, Chile’s Minister of Energy and Mining has cited McKinsey figures to claim that by 2030, the country can produce the world’s cheapest green hydrogen, almost on par with fossil fuel-based hydrogen.

That’s why the e-fuel company HIF Global has its first pilot facility in Chile, where it makes E-Methanol. Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute predicted that fuel from HIF Global’s Haru Oni plant could eventually drop from 50 EUR per litre (around 100 times more expensive than wholesale fossil fuel prices) to 2 EUR per litre as production scales up to industrial levels and in the long term to 1 EUR per litre.

In addition to renewable energy costs, government support matters. Chile is one of a number of countries that offer incentives, with the government offering up to $50 million to help private developers.

Solar energy in Chile is as cheap and reliable as in the Middle East, while wind power in Patagonia can be less than in the Nordics. As discussed, green hydrogen is a key ingredient of e-fuels.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Criteria for success Feedstock sustainability and availability: The environmental impact and long-term supply of the raw materials used to produce the SAF. Production efficiency and scalability: How efficiently the SAF can be produced and whether the production process can be scaled up to meet growing demand.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas reduction potential: The overall carbon footprint reduction compared to conventional jet fuel, considering all stages from production to combustion.

Compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure: How easily the SAF can be integrated into current aviation systems without requiring significant modifications.

Cost competitiveness with conventional jet fuel: The economic viability of the SAF, considering both production costs and potential for cost reduction over time.

Regulatory compliance and certification readiness: How well-positioned the SAF is to meet current and anticipated regulatory standards and certification requirements.

Potential for integration with other sustainable technologies: How well the SAF production process can be combined with other green technologies, such as carbon capture, to further enhance its environmental benefits.

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - SAF TRAILBLAZERS

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary Hydrogen presents a transformative opportunity for aviation as a zero-emission fuel.

The three primary utilisation methods are for: a) hydrogen combustion b) fuel cells and c) e-fuels.

Liquid hydrogen is preferred for aviation due to its higher energy density, while gaseous hydrogen is typically used in e-fuel production.

The global hydrogen market is projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2050, with aviation requiring 50 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually.

Current challenges include the high cost of green hydrogen production compared to grey hydrogen, as well as storage and transportation hurdles.

Major industry players like Airbus are investing in hydrogen technologies, signalling confidence in its potential.

Key investment areas include: • • • •

Innovative electrolyser technology Infrastructure development for hydrogen storage and transport Long-distance liquid hydrogen transportation solutions Airport hydrogen production systems

Emerging alternatives in clean hydrogen production include: • • •

Pink hydrogen (nuclear-powered production) Geothermal energy Tidal power

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 46

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

Introduction Hydrogen, the universe's most abundant element, has the potential to revolutionise aviation as a zero-emission fuel. Its high energy density by weight makes it an attractive alternative to conventional jet fuel, promising extended flight ranges with minimal environmental impact.

The aviation sector is exploring three primary hydrogen utilisation methods: 1. Hydrogen combustion Burning hydrogen in modified gas turbine engines produces mainly water vapour and eliminates carbon dioxide emissions. While it generates some nitrogen oxides (NOx), this method could be adapted for larger, long-haul aircraft, opening significant market opportunities.

2. Hydrogen fuel cells

Source: ZeroAvia

This highly efficient technology converts hydrogen into electricity, powering electric motors with only water as a byproduct.

Currently more suitable for smaller aircraft, rapid innovations are expanding its potential applications. There are a number of startups developing hydrogen fuel cells (also known as hydrogen-electric technology) aircraft or engines, including ZeroAvia and Beyond Aero.

3. E-fuels or Power-to-Liquid fuels Green hydrogen produced via renewable energy is combined with captured CO2 to create synthetic aviation fuel compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure (discussed in the previous section).

Major aviation industry players like Airbus are investing in hydrogen technologies despite challenges, signalling confidence in its transformative potential.

Hydrogen can exist in two states: Gas: At room temperature and pressure, hydrogen molecules are spread out, occupying a large volume.

Liquid: Hydrogen needs to be cooled to extremely low temperatures (-253°C) to become a dense liquid.

In aviation: •

Liquid hydrogen is preferred as fuel due to its higher energy density, allowing longer flight ranges. However, specialised cryogenic storage tanks are required.

•

Gaseous hydrogen is less dense and not ideal for direct use in aircraft due to limited storage capacity.

For e-fuel production: •

Gaseous hydrogen is typically used for its easier handling and reactivity in industrial settings.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

The Hydrogen economy: a trillion-dollar opportunity The transition to a hydrogen-based economy presents a significant opportunity for investors and businesses. Projections suggest a global market value of $1.4 trillion by 2050, with the hydrogen sector poised for explosive growth.

The 'hydrogen ladder' table, developed by energy analyst Michael Liebrich, identifies ten industries where hydrogen use will be crucial (band A) or very important (band B), including: •

Fertiliser production

•

Shipping

•

Steel manufacturing

•

Chemical industry

•

Aviation

This framework helps investors focus on sectors where hydrogen adoption will most likely gain traction, presenting targeted investment opportunities across the value chain.

Green hydrogen: the key to unlocking the hydrogen economy Currently, 95% of hydrogen produced is brown or grey, involving fossil fuels.

hydrogen, created through renewable energy sources.

For the aviation industry to truly benefit from the hydrogen revolution, it must transition to hydrogen sourced from nonfossil fuel methods. Achieving net-zero hydrogen flights will therefore depend heavily on the production of green

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an annual demand of 306 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2050, with aviation alone requiring 50 million tonnes. This represents a monumental growth opportunity, considering less than

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

1% of hydrogen production is currently green.

However, its current high cost presents both a challenge and an opportunity: •

Current cost of green hydrogen: from €3.20/kg to €7/kg

•

Cost of traditional grey hydrogen (fossil fuel-based): Under €1/kg

This price gap highlights the need for technological advancements and costreduction strategies, creating numerous investment opportunities along the value chain.

Areas of focus Green hydrogen has tremendous promise for aviation, but key hurdles in terms of cost, infrastructure, and storage need to be overcome.

These inform the different investment areas we are considering as part of the SimpliFlying Launchpad.

1. Innovative electrolyser technology The electrolyser, which splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity, is critical in green hydrogen production.

According to Rochan Sinha, CTO and Co-founder of Indian Green Hydrogen startup Newtrace, replacing 100 million tonnes of hydrogen (the world's current H2 supply) with green hydrogen via electrolysis will require a global electrolyser capacity of 600 gigawatts.

Yet, the current installed capacity is a mere 2.5 gigawatts. By 2050, we will need an astounding 1300 gigawatts of electrolyser capacity.

Unfortunately, current electrolysers are expensive because newer, more efficient models use precious metals like platinum and iridium, with platinum costing $36,000+ per kg.

As a result, the investment potential in electrolysers includes:

Source: Hysata

•

Novel materials: Using less expensive materials to develop alternative catalysts could dramatically reduce electrolyser costs.

•

Efficiency improvements: Innovations that increase the efficiency of electrolysers can lower the overall cost of hydrogen production. Though Alkaline electrolysers typically claim

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

an efficiency (how much energy is turned into chemical energy) of 65-70%, Australian startup Hysata claims 95% efficiency.

•

Manufacturing innovations: Streamlining electrolyser production processes can lead to economies of scale and reduced costs.

•

Modular and scalable designs: Creating flexible electrolyser systems that can be easily scaled up or down based on demand.

2. Infrastructure development for hydrogen storage and transport As hydrogen production scales up, significant investment is needed in storage and transport infrastructure.

Opportunities exist in developing advanced storage technologies such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) and metal hydrides, which can store hydrogen more safely and efficiently than traditional compressed gas or cryogenic methods.

For transport, there's a growing need for hydrogen-specific pipelines, specialised tanker trucks, and port facilities for hydrogen export.

Consortia developing "hydrogen hubs" that integrate production, storage, and distribution in strategic locations and are able to serve aviation and other industries show promise.

Source: Delta

For example, the hydrogen producer Plug Power is working with Delta and Airbus to determine the feasibility of a hydrogen hub at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL).

3. Long-distance hydrogen transportation solutions for liquid hydrogen Long-term liquid hydrogen shows more promise than gaseous hydrogen.

Transporting hydrogen over long distances efficiently and economically is a critical challenge. Investment opportunities include developing advanced cryogenic tankers for liquid hydrogen transport, similar to those used for LNG. Florida company GenH2 is building on hydrogen zero boil technologies pioneered by NASA to preserve liquid hydrogen while securely storing it and making it ready for ondemand transfer and distribution.

Another promising area is the conversion of hydrogen to more easily transportable forms like ammonia or methanol, which can be shipped using existing infrastructure and then converted back to hydrogen at the point of use.

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KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

4. Airport hydrogen production Airports can produce their own green hydrogen on-site instead of relying on external transportation. This approach is gaining traction due to the challenges associated with transporting hydrogen, particularly in its liquid form.

ZeroAvia, a company developing hydrogen fuel cell powertrains for aircraft, is exploring on-site hydrogen production as part of their Hydrogen Airport Refueling Ecosystem (HARE). This system includes electrolysis for producing hydrogen, as well as storage and refuelling infrastructure. Trials are already underway at Cotswold Airport in the UK. Another option is offered by Element 1, a US-based company. Their technology converts methanol into hydrogen directly at the airport, providing a potential fuel source for both ground vehicles and future hydrogen-powered aircraft.

By producing hydrogen on-site, airports can ensure a reliable and independent fuel supply, reduce transportation emissions, and potentially lower costs in the long run.

Source: Element1

5. Hydrogen Electric Aircraft A promising area for investment is the development of hydrogen-electric aircraft.

This encompasses a range of aircraft sizes, from small regional planes to larger commercial airliners. Companies like ZeroAvia, Dovetail and Beyond Aero are pioneering this technology, with aircraft that use hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricity for propulsion. Investment opportunities in this area include fuel cell technology optimised for aviation, electric propulsion systems, and innovative hydrogen storage solutions for aircraft.

These aircraft offer significant advantages, including zero carbon emissions, reduced noise, and potentially lower operating costs. However, they also present unique

engineering challenges, such as efficient onboard hydrogen storage and the integration of fuel cell systems with electric motors. Investments in solving these challenges could yield substantial returns as the technology matures.

Additionally, as these aircraft approach commercialization, there will be opportunities in areas such as manufacturing processes, maintenance technologies, and pilot training systems specific to hydrogen-electric aircraft. The potential for these aircraft to revolutionise short and medium-haul flights makes this a particularly exciting area for forwardthinking investors in sustainable aviation.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Emerging alternatives in clean hydrogen production A final investment thesis is on alternative energy sources to generate clean hydrogen:

1. Pink hydrogen: nuclear-powered production What if, rather than using wind or solar power to produce green hydrogen, we harness the potential of always-on nuclear power to make so-called pink hydrogen?

Emirates President Sir Tim Clark is one of a growing number of high-profile advocates of such a solution. These advocates point to several key benefits: •

Environmentally friendly: Produces no carbon emissions during production.

•

Reliable: Unlike solar or wind power, nuclear energy provides a consistent power source for hydrogen production.

•

Space-efficient: Nuclear power plants require far less land than solar or wind farms.

•

Cost-effective: With government support, pink hydrogen could be produced as cheaply as $0.48 per kilogram, even cheaper than fossil fuel-based hydrogen in the US. Even without subsidies, pink hydrogen is estimated to be more affordable than green hydrogen made from renewable sources.

•

High output: Nuclear-powered plants can potentially produce much more hydrogen than facilities relying on renewable energy.

While concerns about nuclear safety persist, new technologies like Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are addressing these issues.

2. Geothermal energy: power from the Earth's core Iceland already relies on geothermal sources for its energy, but they are near the surface. Geothermal advocates propose a radically different approach: drilling deep into the Earth.

This is because the Earth's core boasts a temperature of 6000 degrees Celsius, matching that of the Sun's surface. This temperature can be harnessed to make clean energy – and, in turn, produce clean hydrogen.

Source: Google / Fervo Geothermal project

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According to Project Innerspace, a geothermal advocacy group, geothermal energy is "not a moonshot." It asserts that "if we drill for geothermal energy at the rate we currently drill for oil and gas," we could meet 77% of global electricity and 100% of global heat demand.

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

The advantages of geothermal are as follows: •

Cost-competitive: Geothermal energy can be one of the most cost-effective renewable sources, with potential costs as low as $0.01 per kilowatt-hour.

•

Highly reliable: Geothermal plants offer high availability rates (often exceeding 90%) and provide consistent baseload power, unlike intermittent renewables.

•

Long operational lifespan: Geothermal power plants can operate for 50-100 years or more.

•

Growing market: The geothermal energy industry is projected to grow significantly, with some estimates predicting a valuation of over $107 billion by 2030. This indicates substantial room for market expansion and investment returns.

Source: Google / Fervo Geothermal project Tech industry interest: Major tech companies are showing interest in geothermal energy. Notably, Google has invested in an Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) power plant in the Nevada Desert, signalling strong market confidence.

•

Geothermal energy offers a versatile solution for decarbonisation. In addition to producing hydrogen for e-fuels, it can also provide a direct power supply to airports and aviation facilities, particularly in regions with high geothermal potential.

3. Tidal power: harnessing ocean energy While less commercially developed than other renewable energy sources, tidal power presents a promising option for green hydrogen production, offering several key advantages: •

Predictable and reliable: Tidal currents provide a predictable and consistent energy source, unlike the intermittent nature of solar and wind power.

•

High energy density: Tidal currents possess a much higher power density than wind or solar, making them efficient for energy generation.

•

Minimal environmental impact: Tidal power projects require minimal land use and have a relatively low environmental impact compared to other energy sources.

The electricity generated by tidal turbines can be used to power electrolysers.

While tidal power technology is still evolving, its potential for hydrogen production and contribution to the clean energy transition is substantial.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

Criteria for success Cost reduction potential: The technology's ability to lower the production, storage, and utilisation costs of hydrogen, making it more competitive with conventional aviation fuels. For hydrogen-electric aircraft, this also includes the cost-effectiveness of the aircraft itself compared to conventional models.

Scalability: The potential for the technology to be scaled up to meet the massive energy demands of the aviation industry. For aircraft, this includes the ability to scale up from smaller to larger aircraft models.

Energy efficiency: How efficiently the technology converts primary energy into usable hydrogen and then into propulsion. For hydrogen-electric aircraft, this includes the efficiency of the entire powertrain.

Safety innovations: New approaches to addressing the unique safety challenges of hydrogen in aviation, including storage, handling, and use in flight.

Integration potential with existing aviation operations: How easily the hydrogen technology can be incorporated into current aircraft designs, airport infrastructure, and operational procedures, minimising disruption to existing systems.

Performance and range: The performance characteristics of hydrogen-electric aircraft, including speed, payload capacity, and most importantly, range.

Regulatory compliance and certification: The pathway to obtaining necessary certifications for both hydrogen infrastructure and hydrogen-electric aircraft, considering the complexity of the certification process.

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ELECTRIC BREAKTHROUGHS: THE $10 BILLION OPPORTUNITY IN AVIATION'S ELECTRIFICATION Executive summary The electric aviation industry holds out the promise of quiet, accessible electric aircraft revitalising local airports and transforming regional connectivity.

The electric aviation market is projected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2023 to $23.5 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 10.9%.

Key growth drivers include stringent environmental regulations, technological advancements, the emerging Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market, and potential lower operating costs of electric aircraft.

Major challenges include limited battery energy density, the need for extensive charging infrastructure, and potential rapid battery degradation in aviation use.

The SimpliFlying Launchpad focuses on three key areas: next-generation batteries, ground infrastructure for charging and energy management, and realistic clean-sheet aircraft designs.

Next-generation battery technologies being explored include solid-state, sodiumion, silicon anode, and lithium-sulphur batteries, offering the potential for increased range and efficiency.

Charging infrastructure development is crucial, with electric aircraft potentially increasing airport electricity demand tenfold, necessitating solutions like airport micro-grids.

Clean-sheet aircraft designs, particularly in eSTOL and eCTOL categories, are being pursued to optimise electric propulsion and open new regional routes.

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Introduction NASA's 2021 Regional Air Mobility (RAM) report paints a transformative vision for the future of flight. It foresees aircraft so quiet and unobtrusive, with services so accessible and beneficial, that communities would actively lobby for their introduction.

revolution. CEO Anders Forslund frequently illustrates the decline of regional routes in the USA since the mid-1990s, highlighting the routes his company aims to resurrect.

This decline has left many smaller communities without convenient air links, This vision reimagines local airports as impacting their economic development pivotal hubs in a revolutionised travel and quality of life. Advocates like landscape, turning once-overlooked airfields Forslund argue that electric aircraft, such into critical nodes of regional connectivity. as Heart's hybrid-electric ES-30, could herald a renaissance in regional aviation, The catalyst for this paradigm shift, aligning with NASA's vision and potentially according to NASA, is the advent of innovative, predominantly electric-powered redrawing the map of air connectivity. aircraft.

However, the transition from concept to reality presents formidable challenges. As These promise substantial reductions of 2024, only one electric aircraft – the in environmental and noise pollution - a compact two-seater Pipistrel Velis Electro critical development as emissions, noise, – had received commercial certification. and high operational costs have led to a The leap from this to larger models decline in regional air services across the like Heart's 30-seat aircraft or Wright United States and other countries. The Electric's 100+ seater Wright Spirit raises potential revival of these routes could significant questions about technological reconnect communities and stimulate local feasibility, regulatory hurdles, and market economies in ways not seen since the readiness. The industry must navigate these golden age of regional aviation. challenges to bring the promise of electric Swedish electric aircraft pioneer Heart aviation to fruition.

Aerospace is at the forefront of this

Source: Heart Aerospace

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The electric aviation landscape Despite these hurdles, the electric aviation market is poised for significant growth.

Currently valued at approximately $8.5 billion, it is projected to reach $23.5 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9%. This trajectory represents a significant opportunity for investors and innovators alike, with the potential to reshape the aviation landscape and create new market leaders.

Several factors are driving this growth: •

•

•

Environmental regulations: Governments worldwide are implementing stringent emissions reduction targets, pushing the aviation industry towards cleaner alternatives.

Countries like France, Norway, and Denmark are already restricting domestic flights based on fossil fuels. These regulatory pressures are creating a fertile ground for electric aviation technologies, as airlines and manufacturers scramble to meet new environmental standards.

Technological advancements: Breakthroughs in battery technology, particularly in energy density and fastcharging capabilities, are enhancing the viability of electric aircraft. Concurrent developments in efficient electric motors and power management systems are accelerating this trend.

Urban air mobility (UAM): The emerging UAM market, focusing on short-range electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, is driving innovation in battery technology.

Morgan Stanley predicts this market could reach $1.5 trillion by 2040, representing a massive new segment in the aviation industry. The development of eVTOLs is pushing the boundaries of electric propulsion technology, with spillover benefits for the broader electric aviation sector.

•

Cost efficiency: Electric aircraft are expected to offer lower operating costs compared to traditional fuel-powered planes, particularly for short-haul flights. A study on regional routes by Linkopings University in Sweden found that the total operating cost of electric aircraft could be 15-22% cheaper than conventional aircraft.

•

Investment influx: Over $7 billion in venture capital and corporate investments has gone into electric aviation startups, accelerating innovation and bringing these aircraft closer to commercial reality. This surge of capital is fueling rapid advancements in technology and attracting top talent to the sector, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and investment.

•

Falling battery prices: The average price for lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, battery cells is now under $100kWh, an all time low, with reports from China saying that it is even near $50kWh. Meanwhile, Lithium ion batteries recently fell to a record low of $139 per kilowatt-hour.

Source: Volocity

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Electric aviation challenges Despite these promising developments, significant hurdles remain.

Current battery technology lacks the energy density required for larger commercial aircraft, limiting the range and payload capacity of electric planes. For instance, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reports that a nine-seat aircraft with batteries having an energy density of 250 watt-hours per kg would have a range of only about 140km, severely restricting its commercial viability.

However, there's cause for optimism. Doubling the energy density to 500 watt-hours per kilogram could extend the range to nearly 500 kilometres, potentially covering about two-thirds of short-haul flights and a quarter of regional flights. This improvement would significantly expand the market potential for electric aircraft, making them viable for a much broader range of routes and applications.

Source: CATL

Some battery makers say they have already reached that milestone. In particular, China’s CATL, the world’s largest battery manufacturer, says it has developed a 500 wh/kg condensed battery that can power a four-tonne aircraft.

CATL expects to have an 8-ton electric aircraft with a range of 2,000 to 3,000 km (1,240-1,865 miles) operating in 3-4 years.

Eight tonnes would allow for an aircraft like the ten seat Beechcraft King Air or a business jet such as the Embraer Phenom 100 to fly for significant distances powered by batteries alone.

That battery capacity level would in turn allow thousands of smaller aircraft to be retrofitted with electric engines, a topic we will cover later in this report.

Challenges persist beyond battery technology. Electric aircraft require both a robust charging infrastructure and reliable renewable energy sources.

Airports will need to undergo significant upgrades to accommodate the power demands of electric aircraft, which could strain local electrical grids.

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According to a study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), electric aircraft charging could increase an airport's electricity demand by up to tenfold above current levels.

fleet, airports need to handle more than 2 MW to allow for multiple aircraft to charge simultaneously. This results in high power peaks during the busiest times of the day, typically morning and afternoon.

This dramatic increase stems from the high power requirements of electric aircraft, with peak charging power potentially exceeding 1 MW per aircraft. Such demands create a volatile power profile characterised by sharp peaks, which can strain local electrical grids and exceed current airport power capacities.

Battery degradation poses an additional challenge that's particularly acute in the aviation context.

A simulation conducted at Uppsala University further illustrates this challenge.

Their model showed that a single electric aircraft requires around 1 MW of peak electrical power, and to supply an entire

Unlike electric vehicles, which typically charge once a day or less, aircraft batteries must undergo multiple charge cycles daily. This intensive use could lead to faster degradation, with some estimates suggesting batteries could degrade by up to 45% within a year of continuous use.

This rapid degradation could significantly impact the economics and operational viability of electric aircraft.

Areas of focus To address these multifaceted challenges and capitalise on the opportunities in electric aviation, the SimpliFlying Launchpad is focusing on three key areas: 1. Next-generation batteries: We're particularly interested in batteries using new technologies like lithium-sulphur, which have the potential to increase reliability and energy density significantly, enabling longer-range electric flights and improving the overall performance of electric aircraft.

2. Ground infrastructure: Our emphasis is on providing electric aircraft with a steady supply of renewable energy and rapid chargers, enabling quick aircraft turnaround.

This includes innovative solutions for energy storage and management at airports, as well as the development of standardised charging systems that can accommodate a range of electric aircraft types.

3. Clean-sheet aircraft designs: We're focused on aircraft with realistic technical expectations that can open up profitable new regional routes while addressing noise, emissions, and operating cost issues. These designs take a holistic approach to electric aviation, optimising every aspect of the aircraft for electric propulsion from the ground up.

Source: StoryTK / Rolls Royce

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Next-generation battery technologies for electric aviation

We’ll look at each of these in more detail:

1. Next-generation batteries The race to develop advanced battery technologies is accelerating. Several promising alternatives are emerging: •1 Solid-state batteries: These use a solid electrolyte instead of the liquid found in traditional lithium-ion batteries. The potential benefits are significant: enhanced safety, higher energy density, and faster charging capabilities. For electric aircraft, this could translate to extended range and improved operational efficiency.

•2 Sodium-ion batteries: Utilising sodium as the charge carrier instead of lithium, these batteries offer a more sustainable and cost-effective solution. The abundance of sodium compared to lithium could alleviate supply chain concerns and reduce production costs.

•3 Silicon anode batteries: This innovation in lithium-ion technology replaces traditional graphite anodes with silicon. The result is a dramatic increase in energy density, allowing for more compact and longer-lasting batteries. The use of silicon, an abundant and inexpensive material, could also drive down manufacturing costs.

•4 Lithium-Sulphur (Li-S) batteries: The University of Nottingham's NAMI lab is pioneering this technology specifically for aviation applications. Li-S batteries promise several advantages: lower cost, lighter weight, higher energy storage capacity, and improved safety. The use of abundant sulphur instead of rare metals also addresses sustainability concerns.

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2. Fast charging and airport micro-grids The SimpliFlying Launchpad is actively seeking innovative solutions in charging infrastructure and energy management: •

Rapid charging systems: Technologies that dramatically reduce charging times are crucial for maintaining efficient aircraft turnaround and maximising operational productivity.

•

Scalable infrastructure: Modular charging systems that can expand with the growing electric aircraft fleet are essential for future-proofing airport investments.

•

Smart energy management: Advanced systems that optimise energy distribution, balancing aircraft charging needs with available grid capacity, will be critical for efficient operations.

Interoperability is a key focus area. Companies like Beta Technologies are developing modular charging systems adaptable to various aircraft sizes and charging requirements.

Meanwhile, organisations such as SAE International are working to standardise charging protocols and connectors, ensuring compatibility across different aircraft models and charging systems.

Source: Beta Technologies

The challenge of limited electrical capacity at many major airports has brought airport microgrids into focus. These self-contained power systems could provide dedicated energy sources for electric aircraft and airport operations. Key components include: •

Diverse energy generation: Solar panels, wind turbines, and natural gas generators

•

Energy storage systems: To store excess energy and provide power during peak demand

•

Smart grid technologies: For real-time monitoring and optimisation of energy flow

•

Electric vehicle charging infrastructure: Supporting ground support equipment and future electric aircraft

UK solar company Solvus exemplifies this trend, having installed a solar grid at Cotswolds Airport, home to innovative companies like ZeroAvia and Vertical Aerospace.

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3. Clean sheet aircraft The SimpliFlying Launchpad is also focusing on clean sheet (new) aircraft projects. Our evaluation criteria include:

Source: Elysian Aircraft

•

Technical feasibility: Realistic specifications, particularly regarding aircraft weight and battery density.

•

Market potential: Designs that could enable airlines to open new profitable regional routes, potentially decreasing operating costs and boosting profitability.

Our primary interest lies in eSTOL (electric Short Take-Off and Landing) and eCTOL (electric Conventional Take-Off and Landing) aircraft. We're less focused on the eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) sector, which has already attracted significant investment and faces ongoing sustainability questions.

Source: Beta Technologies

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Criteria for success Battery energy density and performance improvements: Advancement in battery technology, particularly in achieving the 400-500 Wh/kg threshold mentioned as crucial for viable electric aircraft.

Range and payload capacity: The practical capabilities of the electric aircraft, considering the balance between distance covered and the weight it can carry.

Charging speed and infrastructure compatibility: How quickly the aircraft can be recharged and how well it integrates with existing or planned charging infrastructure at airports.

Integration with existing airport operations: How seamlessly the electric aircraft can be incorporated into current airport systems and processes.

Regulatory compliance and certification progress: How well the technology aligns with aviation safety standards and its progress towards certification for commercial use.

Cost-effectiveness compared to conventional aircraft: The overall economic viability of electric aircraft, including acquisition, operation, and maintenance costs, to traditional fuel-powered aircraft.

Potential for reducing noise pollution: The acoustic benefits of electric propulsion, which is often cited as a significant advantage of electric aircraft.

Scalability of production and maintenance: The potential for mass production of the aircraft and the ease of maintaining a fleet of electric aircraft.

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THE STATE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION TECHNOLOGIES 2024

CDR: TRANSFORMING CO2 INTO OPPORTUNITY Executive summary Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is projected to become a $1.2 trillion market by 2050, with an estimated need to capture 8 gigatons of CO2 annually by mid-century.

For the aviation industry, CDR presents dual opportunities: as a crucial component in e-fuel production and as an alternative to controversial carbon offsetting programs.

CDR technologies include Direct Air Capture (DAC), nature-based solutions, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), point-source capture, biochar, and ocean-based CDR. Major challenges for CDR adoption include high costs (currently 500-1000 EUR per carbon tonne for DAC), land use concerns, and significant energy consumption.

Favourable regulatory environments, particularly in the US, EU, Canada, and UK, are creating opportunities for CDR investment through various programs and incentives.

CO2 can be repurposed into various products, from fuels and chemicals to building materials and synthetic diamonds, offering the potential for industry disruption.

Ocean-based CDR presents unique advantages, including massive carbon storage capacity, reduced land use competition, and potential for generating renewable energy and hydrogen as byproducts.

Seaweed farming shows promise as a carbon-negative CDR solution, with the potential for hydrogen production and marine ecosystem restoration.

The SimpliFlying Launchpad is focusing on three key areas: carbon utilisation, scalable carbon capture, and ocean-based carbon capture.

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Introduction Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is poised to become a cornerstone in the fight against climate change, with projections suggesting a market value of up to $1.2 trillion by 2050.

This potential stems from the International Renewable Agency's estimate that by mid-century, we'll need to capture eight gigatons of CO2 annually, a staggering increase from the current 0.04 gigatons per annum.

For the aviation industry, CDR presents a dual opportunity that could reshape the sector's approach to sustainability.

•

Firstly, it's a crucial component in e-fuels production, offering a pathway to sustainable air travel without adding new CO2 to the atmosphere.

E-fuels, created by combining captured CO2 with hydrogen from renewable sources, could power aircraft while maintaining a closed carbon loop.

This aligns with the industry's goal

of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, a target that seems increasingly dependent on innovative fuel solutions.

•

Secondly, CDR offers an alternative to increasingly scrutinised carbon offsetting programs. With over 80 non-profits calling for the exclusion of carbon offsets from net-zero roadmaps, airlines are under pressure to find more credible ways to mitigate their environmental impact. Some climate change campaigners are even urging aviation to forgo SAF production and pivot entirely towards CDR investments alongside next-generation propulsion technologies like electric and hydrogenpowered aircraft.

This shift could fundamentally alter the aviation industry's investment strategy.

Instead of purchasing carbon credits from questionable offset programs, airlines might directly invest in CDR technologies or purchase verified carbon removals.

Source: National Energy Technology Laboratory

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Types of CDR technologies CDR technologies span a diverse range, each with potential applications for aviation: • 1 Direct air capture (DAC): Machines filter CO2 directly from the air for underground storage or industrial use.

For aviation, this could provide a source of carbon for e-fuels production. The largest DAC facility in the world is currently Climeworks’ Mammoth plant in Iceland.

•2 Nature-based solutions: Enhance natural processes like reforestation and soil carbon sequestration. While not directly applicable to aviation operations, these could offer airlines a more tangible and PR-friendly way to offset emissions.

•3 Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): Combines biomass energy production with carbon capture, creating a net negative emissions pathway. This could potentially power airport operations while simultaneously removing carbon from the atmosphere.

•4 Point-source capture: Captures CO2 emissions at industrial sources for storage or reuse. This could be implemented at airports or in aircraft manufacturing facilities.

•5 Biochar: Produces stable carbon through biomass pyrolysis for longterm storage in soil. While not directly related to aviation, it offers a costeffective CDR option that airlines could invest in.

•6 Ocean-based CDR: Leverages the ocean's natural processes to absorb and store carbon. This emerging field could offer new opportunities for coastal airports or airlines looking to diversify their sustainability investments.

Source: Climeworks

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Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies comparison

Aviation Applications

Note: Some figures are approximations and can vary based on the latest research

Direct Air Capture (DAC): Direct source of captured CO2 for E-fuel production; potential for on-site airport capture for fuel synthesis.

BECCS: Biomass could be used to produce SAF while capturing CO2; captured CO2 could be used for E-fuel production.

Biochar: Potential for offsetting aviation emissions through investment in biochar projects.

Enhanced Weathering: Primarily an offset mechanism for aviation emissions.

Ocean Alkalinization: Primarily an offset mechanism for aviation emissions.

Direct Ocean Capture: Potential for coastal airports to implement capture systems; captured CO2 could be used for E-fuel production; partnership opportunities for airlines with oceanfront operations.

Seaweed Cultivation: Potential source of biomass for SAF production; seaweed-based products for aviation bioplastics; hydrogen production from seaweed could fuel future aircraft; carbon credits for airlines investing in seaweed farms.

Challenges However, the path to widespread CDR adoption is not without hurdles. These include: • 1 Cost remains a significant barrier, with DAC estimates ranging from 500 to 1000 EUR per carbon tonne, far exceeding the EU Emissions Trading System's current carbon price of 50-100 EUR. For airlines already operating on thin margins, this price discrepancy poses a significant challenge. Biochar offers a more competitive option at around $179 per tonne of CO2, though this method doesn’t directly capture CO2 that can be used for e-fuels. The magic number which is usually cited in making CDR competitive is less than $100 or 100 EUR per carbon tonne. This is the aim of the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Negative Shot.

•2 Land use concerns arise with some nature-based solutions, potentially conflicting with agricultural needs or raising biodiversity and land rights issues. This could limit the scalability of certain CDR approaches, pushing the aviation industry towards more technologically-driven solutions.

•3 Energy consumption is a significant, and sometimes overlooked, issue. Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies in particular require a significant amount of energy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Current commercial DAC systems use between 69

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1,500 to 2,650 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy to capture one tonne of CO2 - or 2000 kWh for Climeworks.

To put this in perspective: An average US household uses between 10,500 - 10,800 kWh of electricity per year. So, capturing one tonne of CO2 using DAC requires as much energy as an average home uses in 1.7 to 3 months.

If you then wanted to offset a year's worth of CO2 emissions for an average person in the US (about 16 tonnes), you'd need to use as much energy as 27 to 48 households consume in an entire year.

Or let’s put it into aviation terms: •

Average airport energy use: 3.6 kWh per passenger annually for a small or medium sized passenger airport

•

Average DAC energy use: 2,000 kWh per tonne of CO2 How much energy does Carbon Capture need?

Significant energy consumption: Capturing a single tonne of CO2 from the air using DAC requires approximately 2,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy. This is equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of about 555 passengers at a small or mid-sized airport.

Offsetting airport emissions: So, for each passenger served, the airport would need to expend 555 times the energy it typically uses per passenger.

Flight emissions and energy: Long-haul flights, such as those between New York and London, emit roughly one tonne of CO2 per passenger. The energy required to capture this amount of CO2 through DAC equals the annual energy consumption of the airport for 555 passengers.

Large-scale challenge: Imagine an airport serving 1 million long-haul passengers annually. Using DAC to offset their emissions would demand an energy equivalent to serving 555 million passengers – a figure exceeding the yearly passenger volume of numerous major international airports.

Technological hurdles: These figures underscore the considerable energy challenges associated with DAC technology. While it holds potential for mitigating climate change, broader implementation hinges on significant advancements in energy efficiency and the adoption of renewable energy sources to power DAC processes.

This high energy requirement is one of the main challenges for the widespread adoption of DAC. However, researchers are actively developing new processes to improve DAC efficiency and reduce its energy demand.

Promising advancements include the use of novel sorbent materials, such as metal-organic frameworks and solid amine sorbents, that capture and release CO2 with less energy. Process optimisation techniques are also being explored to reduce energy input.

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Furthermore, integration with renewable energy sources, such as solar power or waste heat recovery, can significantly reduce DAC's carbon footprint.

•4 Controversy surrounds point-source capture at fossil fuel facilities, with sceptics viewing it as a potential delaying tactic by oil companies.

While this debate may seem removed from aviation, it has implications for the industry's fuel suppliers and could impact the future availability and pricing of sustainable aviation fuels.

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The effectiveness of large-scale CCS projects has been questioned, exemplified

by Chevron's "Gorgon" project in Western Australia operating at only one-third capacity after six years. Occidental

Petroleum's decision to shelve its "Century" carbon capture plant due to economic concerns further highlights the financial risks involved.

A favourable regulatory environment As governments worldwide recognise CDR as crucial for achieving climate goals, a mosaic of programs and incentives is emerging, creating a fertile ground for investors.

United States The US is leading the charge with substantial investments and innovative programs: The Department of Energy's (DOE) $100 million Carbon Negative Shot aims to slash atmospheric CO2 removal costs to $100 per ton, potentially revolutionising the economics of CDR. The 45Q Tax Credit offers a compelling financial incentive for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, including direct air capture, making investment in this sector increasingly attractive.

Source: US Department of Energy, Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations

Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs Program: A game-changing initiative with $3.5 billion allocated to establish four regional DAC hubs across the United States. This program promises to create economies of scale and accelerate DAC technology deployment.

In August 2023, the DOE announced $1.2 billion for the first two hubs: the South Texas DAC Hub led by Occidental Petroleum, which targets 1 million metric tons of CO2 removal annually, and the Louisiana DAC Hub led by Battelle Memorial Institute, involving carbon capture companies Climeworks and Heirloom, which is also aiming for 1 million metric tons per year.

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Carbon Capture Demonstration Projects Program: With $2.5 billion in funding, this initiative focuses on large-scale projects demonstrating the commercial viability of carbon capture and storage technologies across power plants and industrial facilities.

These federal programs, combined with state-level initiatives, especially in California and New York, are creating a robust ecosystem for CDR innovation and investment.

European Union The EU is fostering a CDR ecosystem through: •

The Innovation Fund, providing grants and financial support for low-carbon technologies, including CDR.

•

Horizon Europe, funding CDR research and demonstration projects.

•

Potential incorporation of CDR into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which could create a lucrative market for carbon removals.

Canada Canada's aggressive approach to CDR has created numerous incentives: •

The refundable Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage Investment Tax Credit (CCUS ITC), valued at $2.27 billion USD over five years, offers substantial financial incentives.

Available from 2022 to 2040, with higher rates before 2030, the CCUS ITC encourages early investment, potentially rewarding first movers.

•

The $15 billion Canada Growth Fund aims to catalyse private investment in carbon management projects through innovative financial tools.

•

Favourable renewable energy costs in regions like Newfoundland enhance the attractiveness of CDR projects, potentially boosting returns on investment.

Source: Canada.ca

United Kingdom The UK government's commitment of up to £100 million from the BEIS Energy Innovation Programme signals strong support for CCUS innovation and deployment. With the new Labour Government taking power in July 2024, these incentives are expected to strengthen further, given Labour's more aggressive stance on climate change. This political shift could open up new avenues for CDR investment in the UK market.

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Areas of focus The SimpliFlying launchpad is strategically focusing on three key areas with significant growth potential: 1. Carbon utilisation: Beyond aviation fuels, this sector encompasses a wide range of products from plastics to cement, offering diverse investment opportunities across multiple industries.

2. Scalable carbon capture: Projects with the potential to achieve competitive CO2 per tonne prices in the medium to long term are prime targets for investment, as they could become industry leaders as the market matures.

3. Ocean-based carbon capture: This emerging field shows long-term promise and offers co-benefits such as clean energy generation and hydrogen production, potentially providing multiple revenue streams for investors.

We’ll look at each of these in more detail:

1. Turning CO2 into useful products Companies like Twelve believe CO2 can be repurposed into useful products, creating a "world made from air." Twelve is part of a growing movement that sees potential in using CO2 as the basis for everyday items, from sneakers and automotive components to jet fuel.

The possibilities are endless: •

Fuels: CO2 can be converted into synthetic fuels like methanol, ethanol, and dimethyl ether. We’ve looked at e-fuels in more detail in the SAF section

•

Chemicals: CO2 is used to produce urea (for fertilisers), polycarbonates (for plastics), and salicylic acid (for pharmaceuticals).

Source: twelve

•

Polymers: CO2 can be used to produce polyurethanes, polycarbonates, and even polyester for clothes.

•

Building materials: CO2 can be mineralised with calcium or magnesium to form carbonates for concrete and aggregates.

•

Synthetic diamonds: High-purity CO2 can be used to create synthetic diamonds for industrial and jewellery applications.

•

Food and beverages: CO2 is used to carbonate drinks, packaging, and refrigerants.

•

•

Dry ice: Solid CO2 is used for cooling and preservation in various industries.

Carbon nanotubes: CO2 can be a carbon source for synthesising carbon nanotubes, which have wide-ranging applications in electronics, materials science, and energy storage.

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The technology is still relatively early, which means it is expensive and energy-intensive.

However, this presents an opportunity for technological advances and disruption that could revolutionise multiple industries.

One startup, Air Company, featured in our book ‘Sustainability in the Air’, believes its technology for capturing and utilising CO2 could reduce emissions by over 10% globally if applied across all industries.

2. Scalable carbon capture projects Scalable carbon capture projects will be pivotal in the fight against climate change, offering a path to significant CO2 reduction while presenting compelling investment opportunities. The key to their potential lies in their ability to achieve competitive CO2 per tonne prices over time.

As discussed, currently, direct air capture (DAC) costs range from $500 to $1000 per tonne of CO2, far exceeding the EU carbon price of $50-$100. This high cost is largely due to the energy-intensive nature of the process, with DAC requiring 0.5-1 MWh of electricity per tonne of CO2 removed.

Source: Industrial Compliance

As a result, our key focus will be projects that have the potential to meet the US Department of Energy's target of $100 per tonne, making carbon capture economically viable for aviation, both for e-fuel use, and for carbon credits.

3. Ocean-based carbon capture and removals Ocean-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) offers several potential benefits, including: •

Massive carbon storage capacity: The ocean is the largest natural carbon sink on Earth. Ocean-based CDR aims to enhance this capacity, potentially storing billions of tons of CO2.

•

Potential for negative emissions: Certain ocean-based CDR approaches, like seaweed cultivation could achieve negative emissions, removing more CO2 from the atmosphere than is released.

For example, a report by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology highlights seaweed farming as a promising ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solution that can potentially be carbon-negative. One method is to use the harvested seaweed as feedstock for BECCS plants or converting it to biochar for soil storage.

The report estimates that seaweed farming off Norway's coast could capture 25003000 tonnes of CO2 per km2 annually. Notably, an area of 20,000 km2 could potentially offset Norway's entire annual CO2 emissions.

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•

Reduced competition for land: Unlike land-based CDR methods like afforestation, ocean-based CDR does not compete with land use for food production or other purposes.

•

Climate co-benefits: Wave and Tidal Energy. Ocean-based CDR installations can be coupled with wave and tidal energy generation, providing a source of renewable energy while capturing carbon.

•

Ocean CDR can produce hydrogen as a byproduct through electrolysis, potentially providing a source of clean fuel. This is the approach taken

by Singapore / US startup Equatic, which has signed a hydrogen offtake agreement with Boeing.

•

Seaweed-based Hydrogen production: Some research suggests that seaweed can be used as a feedstock for hydrogen production through fermentation or gasification processes, with the added benefit of carbon sequestration. For example, academics from Ewha Womans University developed a new process to produce hydrogen from seaweed.

This process is potentially carbonneutral or even carbon-negative because seaweed absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere as it grows. The

ATT process can produce high-purity hydrogen from wet, salty biomass like seaweed, which is challenging for conventional methods.

This method produced 1.57 litres of hydrogen from 1 gram of brown seaweed, with a 71% conversion rate.

Given that this technology has not yet been taken anywhere near an industrial scale, that’s a promising first step. The 71% efficiency is also in line with some of the best electrolysers producing green hydrogen.

•

Marine ecosystem restoration: Some ocean-based CDR methods, like seaweed cultivation, can also create habitats and improve water quality, contributing to ecosystem restoration.

Source: Alexandros Giannakakis on Unsplash

Criteria for success Cost-effectiveness: Ability to approach the target of less than $100 per tonne of CO2 removed. This includes both capital and operational expenses, as well as potential for cost reduction as the technology matures.

Scalability: Potential to remove significant amounts of CO2 at a scale relevant to aviation's emissions. This involves assessing the technology's capacity for large-scale deployment, considering various factors.

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Permanence: Durability of carbon storage, ensuring long-term removal from the atmosphere. This criterion evaluates the risk of carbon re-release and the expected timeframe of storage. It also considers the stability of the storage method.

Energy efficiency: Amount of energy required per tonne of CO2 removed, considering the overall environmental impact. This includes assessing the source of energy used (renewable vs. non-renewable), the energy intensity of the process, and the net carbon benefit after accounting for energy-related emissions.

Land and resource use: Efficiency in terms of land area or resources required for operation. This criterion evaluates the technology's footprint, and also assesses the consumption of resources that might have competing uses or environmental impacts.

Environmental co-benefits: Additional positive impacts on ecosystems or biodiversity.

It also considers potential negative environmental impacts and how they are mitigated.

Regulatory alignment: Compliance with existing and anticipated carbon removal regulations and standards. It also considers the ease of obtaining necessary permits and certifications.

Integration with aviation: Potential for direct application or synergy with aviation operations or sustainable aviation fuel production. It also considers potential dual-use applications, such as CO2 capture for SAF production.

Technological readiness: Current stage of development and timeline to commercial viability. It also considers the research and development pipeline, including planned improvements and innovations.

Verification and monitoring: Ease and accuracy of measuring and verifying the amount of CO2 removed. It also considers the cost and complexity of monitoring systems, as well as their alignment with international carbon credit standards and verification processes.

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SUSTAINABLE CABIN PIONEERS Executive summary The aviation industry faces significant challenges with cabin waste, producing 1.43 kg of waste per passenger per flight, much of it single-use plastics.

Traditional cabin materials, often containing harmful substances like brominated flame retardants, are difficult to recycle and increase fuel consumption due to their weight.

The global aircraft cabin interiors market is projected to reach $74 billion by 2033, with a significant portion driven by demand for sustainable solutions.

Key areas of innovation include novel materials (carbon fibre composites, bio-based plastics, recycled materials), circular economy solutions, and waste reduction in catering.

Regulatory pressures, such as the EU Single-Use Plastics Directive and various national regulations, are driving the adoption of sustainable cabin practices.

Innovative technologies like AI-powered waste sorting, advanced compactors, and 3D printing are emerging as solutions for more sustainable cabin operations.

While challenges exist (higher initial costs, certification processes, supply chain complexities), opportunities include long-term cost savings, enhanced brand loyalty, and competitive advantages through innovation.

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Introduction The aviation industry is facing a pressing environmental challenge that extends beyond emissions: the substantial waste generated within aircraft cabins.

With each passenger producing 1.43 kilograms of waste per flight, the industry is grappling with millions of tons of cabin waste annually, much of which ends up in landfills or incinerators.

Moreover, this waste is largely composed of single-use plastics (SUPPs), posing an environmental threat. However, it also presents a unique opportunity for innovation and investment in sustainable solutions. The elimination of SUPPS is also popular with the flying public. IATA research from November 2023 showed that over three quarters would feel better about flying if single use plastics were to be eliminated from the cabin.

At the same time, traditional aircraft cabin materials pose significant challenges in recycling and waste management.

Many existing seats and tray tables are composed of complex material blends, including brominated flame retardants (BFRs), metals, and foams, making them difficult to separate and recycle. When these materials are disposed of in landfills, BFRs can leach into soil and water, posing a long-term environmental risk.

The weight of these traditional materials also increases fuel consumption and emissions throughout an aircraft's operational life.

Companies developing mono-material designs or easily separable components stand to disrupt this space significantly.

There's also growing interest in materials that are inherently flame-resistant without harmful additives, addressing both safety requirements and environmental concerns.

At the SimpliFlying Launchpad, we are committed to nurturing and identifying startups that are reimagining cabin sustainability.

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A multi-billion dollar market The drive towards sustainable cabins represents more than an environmental imperative; it's a burgeoning market with substantial growth potential. The global aircraft cabin interiors market, valued at approximately $32 billion in 2023, is projected to reach $74 billion by 2033, and is growing at a CAGR of 7.9% to 9.31%.

A significant portion of this growth is expected to be driven by the demand for sustainable solutions. Airlines are increasingly recognising that investing in eco-friendly cabins can enhance their brand image, attract environmentally conscious passengers, and potentially reduce operational costs through improved resource efficiency.

This market growth is further propelled by regulatory drivers, including: •

EU Single-Use Plastics Directive: This directive is a key regulatory driver for sustainable cabin solutions. It bans specific single-use plastic items (cutlery, straws, stirrers, etc.) and promotes the use of alternatives. Plastic bottles must contain at least 25% recycled plastic by 2025, increasing to 30% by 2030.

Airlines operating within the EU must comply, pushing them to adopt sustainable cabin practices. This directive directly impacts the market for sustainable alternatives and creates a demand for innovative solutions.

•

CORSIA: While it doesn't directly regulate cabin waste, CORSIA incentivises airlines to reduce overall weight (including waste) to lower fuel consumption and emissions.

This indirectly motivates airlines to adopt lighter, more sustainable materials and practices for cabin interiors, influencing the market for such solutions.

Source: Runway Girl

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There are also numerous national regulations in place. Here are just a few examples: •

France: Implemented a ban on singleuse plastic cups, plates, and cutlery.

Additionally, there are restrictions on plastic packaging for fruits and vegetables. This requires airlines to use alternative materials for onboard catering and consider the packaging of food items brought onboard by passengers.

•

Canada: Banned the manufacture and import of several single-use plastics, such as checkout bags, straws, stir sticks, six-pack rings, cutlery, and foodware made from hard-to-recycle plastics.

•

Kenya: One of the strictest bans on plastic bags globally, with severe penalties for production, sale, and use.

•

Australia: Several states and territories have implemented bans on various single-use plastics, including straws, stirrers, cutlery, plates, and polystyrene containers.

•

Taiwan: Implemented a phased ban on single-use plastic items. Since 2019, they've banned plastic straws, followed by a ban on plastic shopping bags in 2020. Further restrictions are planned for plastic cups, plates, and other items in the coming years.

The convergence of market demand, growing consumer awareness, and regulatory pressure are creating a fertile ground for investment in sustainable cabin technologies and practices.

Source: Greenpeace

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Areas of focus The SimpliFlying Launchpad has identified several promising areas for innovation in sustainable cabin design: 1. Sustainable materials: Developing bio-based or compostable alternatives to traditional plastics, and exploring lightweight materials for cabin interiors to reduce fuel consumption.

2. Circular economy principles: Implementing closed-loop systems for onboard waste management and partnering with specialised waste processing companies.

3. Operational innovations: Reducing single-use items, optimising catering to minimise food waste, and leveraging digital solutions to decrease paper consumption.

We’ll look at each of these in more detail:

1. Novel materials for seats and cabin interiors Carbon fibre composites: These advanced materials offer exceptional strengthto-weight ratios, potentially reducing seat weight by up to 50% compared to traditional aluminium frames. For instance, the Airbus A350 XWB uses carbon fibre-reinforced plastic (CFRP) in its seat structures, contributing to overall fuel efficiency.

Source: Airbus

2. Bio-based plastics These are derived from renewable sources such as cornstarch or sugarcane. These materials can be used for tray tables, armrests, and other cabin components, offering similar durability to petroleum-based plastics but with a lower carbon footprint. Some bio-based plastics also offer improved end-of-life options, being compostable or more easily recyclable.

3. Recycled cabin materials Innovative firms are finding ways to incorporate recycled content into cabin design. Some companies like Mitsubishi are working with Boeing to evaluate sustainable recycled carbon fibre composite materials.

Meanwhile, aircraft manufacturers are using recycled aluminium for seat frames and other structural components. This reduces the energy-intensive process of producing new aluminium and contributes to a more Source: Mitsubishi Chemical Group sustainable manufacturing process.

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4. Innovative seat materials Sustainable materials include Fine Mycelium, a leather-alternative biomaterial, which is already being trialled in the automotive industry.

Bio-based foams, derived from sources like soybean oil or castor oil, offer a renewable alternative to petroleum-based polyurethane foams traditionally used in seat cushions.

These materials not only reduce reliance on fossil fuels but can also be engineered to meet stringent flame-retardant requirements without harmful additives.

Advanced textiles made from recycled plastics, such as REPREVE® fibres, are being adopted for seat covers. These materials divert plastic waste from landfills and oceans while offering durability comparable to virgin polyester.

Natural fibres like hemp or flax, when combined with bioresins, create biocomposites that could replace traditional plastic components in seat structures. These materials are lightweight, strong, and biodegradable at end-of-life.

Graphene-enhanced composites, while still in early development stages, show promise for creating ultra-strong, lightweight seat frames that could significantly reduce overall aircraft weight.

5. Recycling and circular economy solutions AI and machine learning can be used to automatically sort waste into different categories (recyclables, compostables, and general waste) as it's disposed of. These systems can significantly increase recycling rates and reduce contamination.

Advanced waste compactors can reduce the volume of waste by up to 80%. These systems not only save space but also reduce the weight of waste carried on board, potentially leading to fuel savings.

Source: Plastic Expert

6. Catering waste reduction Compostable and edible packaging is an innovative approach to reducing waste in the catering industry. For example, companies like RawPac produce plant-based packaging that can be composted along with food waste, significantly reducing landfill contributions.

Another example is the use of edible cutlery and plates, such as those made by Bakey's in India, which provide a zero-waste alternative to traditional disposable items. These products are not only environmentally friendly but also add a unique twist to the dining experience.

7. Data-driven catering optimisation to minimise food waste Data-driven solutions enable caterers to better manage inventory and forecast demand, significantly reducing food waste. Tools like Leanpath use real-time data tracking to

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identify waste patterns and adjust purchasing and production accordingly. By leveraging data, airline caterers can make informed decisions that align supply with actual consumption.

8. 3D printing 3D printing technology enables the creation of customised, lightweight cabin components.

For instance, Airbus has been using 3D printing to produce parts such as seat buckles and cabin dividers. These components are designed to be significantly lighter than traditional parts, leading to fuel savings and reduced emissions.

In one example, a 3D-printed titanium bracket used in Airbus aircraft resulted in a 70% weight reduction compared to the conventional part. Additionally, 3D printing allows for on-demand production of spare parts.

Source: Airbus

9. Recycled blankets and in-cabin items In-cabin textiles, particularly blankets, face significant durability challenges in the aviation industry. These items undergo frequent and rigorous washing after every flight, which can dramatically shorten their lifespan.

Companies like John Horsfall are exploring innovative materials and designs, including cooling pillows and dual-sided pillows, to customise passenger comfort without relying on chemical treatments.

They're also working on making recycled polyester more cost-competitive with regular polyester, potentially increasing its adoption by airlines.

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Source: John Horsfall

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Challenges and opportunities While the sustainable cabin market presents significant opportunities, investors should be aware of the challenges: •

Higher initial costs for sustainable materials and technologies.

•

Rigorous certification processes for new materials and designs.

•

Supply chain complexities for novel sustainable materials.

•

Passenger perceptions and the need for effective communication.

•

Logistical challenges in retrofitting existing fleets.

Source: Airbus

However, these challenges are balanced by compelling opportunities:

Source: Cirium

•

Long-term cost savings through reduced fuel consumption and waste management efficiency.

•

Enhanced passenger experience and brand loyalty.

•

Competitive advantage through innovation leadership.

•

Proactive regulatory compliance.

Criteria for success Environmental impact reduction: The technology's ability to reduce the overall environmental footprint of cabin materials and operations. Consideration of both direct impacts (e.g., during use) and indirect impacts (e.g., during production and disposal).

Material innovation: The use of novel, sustainable materials such as recycled plastics, bio-based composites, or other eco-friendly alternatives. Consideration of the material's durability, weight, and performance characteristics compared to traditional options. Assess the potential for these materials to be recycled or biodegraded at the end of their lifecycle.

Weight reduction potential: The technology's ability to reduce overall aircraft weight, which directly impacts fuel consumption and emissions.

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Compliance with safety regulations: The sustainable technology meets or exceeds all relevant aviation safety standards, particularly fire resistance requirements.

Durability and maintenance requirements: The longevity of the sustainable cabin components and their ability to withstand the rigours of frequent use in an aviation environment. The maintenance needs, including cleaning processes, repair procedures, and replacement frequency, and how these compare to conventional alternatives.

Passenger comfort and experience: How the said sustainable technology impacts passenger comfort, including factors such as ergonomics, noise reduction, air quality, and overall aesthetics.

Scalability and manufacturing feasibility: The potential for large-scale production of the said sustainable cabin technology. Factors such as supply chain reliability, manufacturing complexity, and the ability to meet industry demand will be considered as well as any potential bottlenecks or challenges in scaling up production.

Cost-effectiveness: The economic viability of the sustainable technology, including initial investment costs, operational costs, and potential long-term savings, as well as a comparison with conventional alternatives. A look at potential cost reductions as the technology matures and production scales up.

End-of-life considerations: The disposal or recycling options for the sustainable cabin components at the end of their useful life. Includes the ease of disassembly, the recyclability of materials, and any take-back programs or circular economy initiatives associated with the technology.

Integration with other aircraft systems: How well the sustainable cabin technology integrates with other aircraft systems, such as electrical, environmental control, or connectivity systems.

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RETROFITTING REVOLUTIONARIES Executive summary Retrofitting existing aircraft with clean technologies could be a faster, simpler approach to aviation decarbonisation, targeting the large fleet of smaller aircraft (general aviation and 6-50 seat passenger planes).

Key retrofitting technologies include hydrogen-electric, hybrid-electric, and battery-electric powertrains, as well as aerodynamic upgrades like winglets for improved fuel efficiency.

Companies like ZeroAvia, Cranfield Aerospace Solutions, Ampaire, and MagniX are leading efforts in various retrofitting technologies for different aircraft types.

Benefits of retrofitting include reduced emissions, quieter operations, lower operating costs, and faster regulatory approval compared to certifying entirely new aircraft designs.

Challenges include technological limitations, especially for battery-electric solutions, and the need for new infrastructure (e.g., hydrogen storage, charging stations).

Government incentives and regulatory pressures, including planned fossil fuel flight bans in some countries, are driving interest in retrofitting solutions.

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Introduction A growing number of voices are advocating for what they say is a simpler, faster approach to decarbonising the aviation industry. Instead of building new aircraft, retrofit the tens of thousands already in existence with battery electric or hydrogen electric technology.

The benefits of this approach are manifold.

Not only do these retrofitted engines produce fewer emissions, but they're also quieter, benefiting communities near airports. Additionally, they're often cheaper to operate, providing economic incentives for adoption.

This strategy targets the vast fleet of smaller aircraft, including approximately 350,000 general aviation planes worldwide and over 41,000 passenger aircraft with 6 to 50 seats (many of these business jets).

Crucially, retrofitting can be integrated into regular maintenance schedules, minimising disruption and costs.

Proponents of retrofitting argue that this is the ideal starting point for aviation's green transition. Given that electric and hydrogen-electric powertrains are currently limited to smaller aircraft due to technological constraints, why not start by upgrading these small planes already in service?

From a regulatory perspective, retrofitting existing aircraft models is often easier and faster than certifying entirely new designs, which can take up to a decade and cost billions. This approach allows the industry to make meaningful progress towards decarbonisation in the near term, while simultaneously developing the expertise and technology needed for larger aircraft and clean-sheet designs in the future.

By replacing conventional engines with these new, clean powertrains, older aircraft can be given a new lease on life while significantly reducing their environmental impact.

Source: ZeroAvia

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Regulatory landscape Companies involved in electric and hydrogen-electric retrofitting can benefit from various governmental incentives: •

The UK Government has allocated nearly £100 million in grants through the Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI).

•

China aims to establish an advanced green aviation manufacturing system by 2035, with electric and hydrogen aircraft as key components, under initiatives like Made in China 2025.

•

In the US, the Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) actively funds electric aircraft projects.

•

The European Union's 'Clean Aviation' project supports electric and hybrid-electric aircraft development.

Retrofitting is crucial as some countries plan to phase out fossil fuel-powered flights as mentioned previously. Retrofitting could expedite the transition of existing regional aircraft fleets to newer technologies.

Additionally, the private jet industry faces pressure to decarbonise, with retrofitting offering a potential solution.

Areas of focus As part of the SimpliFlying Launchpad, we are concentrating on the following key retrofitting technologies: 1. Hydrogen-electric retrofits

3. Hybrid-electric retrofits

2. Electric retrofits

4. Aerodynamic retrofits (e.g. winglets)

We’ll look at each of these in more detail:

1. Hydrogen-electric retrofitting Existing turboprop engines are replaced with electric motors powered by hydrogen fuel cells. The hydrogen is stored in tanks on the aircraft and converted to electricity, which powers the motor and drives the propellers.

Advocates like US / UK hydrogen-electric powertrain firm ZeroAvia say this is a ‘true zero’ solution, as there are no greenhouse gases or pollutants during operation. Contrails (condensation trails) and NOx (nitrogen oxides) are also reduced compared to traditional jet engines.

Source: Cranfield Aerospace Solutions

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Hydrogen offers a higher energy density than batteries, enabling longer flights for regional routes.

However, there are challenges when it comes to hydrogen production and storage (see our section on hydrogen).

Companies in this space include ZeroAvia, which is looking at having a retrofitted 19-seat aircraft flying in the next two years, after which it will move onto the 50 and 100-seat segments. Meanwhile, Cranfield Aerospace Solutions is starting with retrofitting the Britten Norman Islander small regional aircraft, while Dovetail Electric is starting with retrofitting the Beechcraft King Air, which boasts over 3,000 aircraft still in service and can accommodate 8-15 passengers.

2. Electric retrofitting (batteryelectric) This approach involves replacing conventional aircraft engines with electric motors powered exclusively by batteries.

As the aviation industry grapples with its environmental impact, electric retrofitting is a promising solution for shorter routes.

All electric aircraft produce zero direct emissions during flight, dramatically reducing their carbon footprint. They also operate much more quietly than their conventional counterparts, potentially alleviating noise pollution around airports.

Source: Harbour Air

Furthermore, the lower operating costs associated with electricity compared to traditional aviation fuel make electric retrofitting an attractive option from an economic standpoint.

However, there are also a number of challenges. The current limitations of battery technology restrict the range of electric aircraft, making them suitable primarily for shorter routes. The weight of the batteries also presents a significant hurdle, as it can substantially impact the aircraft's payload capacity. Additionally, the widespread adoption of electric aircraft would necessitate the development of extensive charging infrastructure at airports, requiring significant investment and planning.

We’ve covered these issues in more detail in the electric battery segment of our report.

Most notably in this segment, electric motor manufacturer MagniX is working with Canadian seaplane company Harbour Air to retrofit the airline’s fleet with batterypowered electric motors.

3. Hybrid-electric retrofitting This approach combines a downsized conventional engine, typically a turboprop, with an electric motor and battery system.

The electric motor is primarily used during take-off and climb, phases that consume a

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significant portion of fuel on shorter routes. Studies indicate that around a third or more of fuel is consumed during the approach, landing, and take-off phases of shorter flights.

The conventional engine is then often utilised during cruise and simultaneously charges the battery.

The system can operate on either standard Jet A aircraft fuel or SAF to power the conventional turbine engine, offering flexibility in fuel sources.

Key benefits include: •

Substantially lower carbon footprint compared to traditional aircraft, varying based on electric motor usage and potential SAF utilisation

•

Reduced noise pollution, as the quieter electric motor is employed during takeoff and landing

•

Enhanced fuel efficiency, with the electric motor boosting performance during high-power flight phases

This hybrid approach partially addresses the challenge of battery weight in aircraft, as the electric motor isn't required to power the entire flight. Additionally, it reduces the need for extensive charging infrastructure at airports, as the onboard conventional engine can recharge the battery system.

The most high-profile company retrofitting aircraft with hybrid-electric technology is California-based Ampaire, which holds the distance record for the longest hybridelectric aircraft flight.

Source: Ampaire

4. Aerodynamic upgrades for fuel efficiency While the development of alternative fuels and electric propulsion technologies progresses, aerodynamic retrofits and upgrades offer an immediate and impactful solution.

These modifications hold the key to unlocking significant fuel savings and, consequently, a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

By optimising the airflow around an aircraft, retrofits like winglets and other dragreducing features enhance fuel efficiency without compromising performance. This translates to fewer emissions per flight, contributing to the industry's sustainability goals.

For example, the ‘blended winglets’ developed by Aviation Partners claims to have saved over 150 million tonnes of CO2 thanks to being retrofitted on aircraft, such as Dassault and Boeing business jets.

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5. Hydrogen combustion retrofitting Aircraft can also theoretically be retrofitted with hydrogen combustion engines as opposed to hydrogen fuel cell electric engines. This approach would use hydrogen as a direct fuel in modified gas turbine engines, rather than converting hydrogen to electricity in fuel cells.

Though this is technically possible, it would require significant engineering work. Major modifications would also be needed for fuel storage, delivery systems, and engine components to handle hydrogen's properties.

Source: H2 View

Criteria for success Emission reduction and energy efficiency: This includes evaluating both direct emissions (CO2) and other climate-forcing emissions (such as NOx and contrails), as well as improvements in propulsion efficiency and aerodynamics.

Technical feasibility and aircraft compatibility: The technology readiness level (TRL), complexity of installation, and any modifications required to the existing airframe or systems.

Certification and regulatory compliance: The complexity and duration of the certification process and how the technology aligns with existing and anticipated regulations.

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Economic viability and operational impact: The cost-effectiveness of the retrofit solution, including initial investment, installation costs, and ongoing operational expenses. How the retrofit affects aircraft operations, including factors such as range, payload capacity, and maintenance procedures. The payback period and return on investment for airlines of different sizes and operational profiles.

Scalability and supply chain considerations: The potential for scaling up the retrofit solution to meet industry demand. The manufacturing capacity, supply chain robustness, and any potential bottlenecks in materials or components.

Safety improvements: Any safety enhancements offered by the retrofit technology.

Improved monitoring systems, enhanced redundancy, or reduced risk of certain types of failures.

Noise reduction: The impact of the retrofit on aircraft noise levels, both in-flight and during takeoff and landing. How noise reduction could benefit airport communities and potentially allow for expanded operations at noise-sensitive airports.

Flexibility and future-proofing: The adaptability of the retrofit technology to future improvements or changes in regulatory requirements. Consideration of whether the retrofit allows for easy upgrades or modifications as technology advances.

Infrastructure and end-of-life considerations: A look at any new infrastructure needs such as the costs and feasibility of implementing infrastructure changes at airports and maintenance facilities, as well as the recyclability of components and effects on aircraft lifespan.

Passenger experience and airline operations: How the retrofit affects the passenger experience and airline operations. The impact on airline scheduling, crew training requirements, and ground handling processes.

Environmental life cycle assessment: A comprehensive environmental analysis of the retrofit technology, considering its full lifecycle impact from manufacturing and installation through operation and eventual disposal.

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ECO-FRIENDLY AIRPORTS Executive summary Airport construction is booming, with 230 projects worth $160 billion initiated in 2021-2022, presenting opportunities for sustainable redesign and innovation.

Airports contribute 2% of global aviation emissions, with major sources including energy consumption, ground operations, and aircraft movements.

The global green airport market is projected to reach $12 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10.2%, driven by sustainability investments and government regulations.

Key investment areas include sustainable materials (e.g., carbon-capturing concrete), renewable energy grids, ground vehicle electrification, smart taxiing solutions, and charging infrastructure.

Challenges include space constraints, increased power demand, stakeholder coordination, and the need for long-term planning.

Airports are well-positioned to pioneer sustainable technologies, serving as testbeds for innovations applicable to other industries and urban environments.

Government incentives, operational cost savings, improved brand value, and technology transfer potential are driving factors for investors in airport decarbonisation efforts.

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Introduction In 2021-2022 alone, 230 airport construction projects, valued at $160 billion, broke ground worldwide. This growth presents not just an expansion of capacity but a unique opportunity to redefine airport infrastructure through a sustainability lens.

For investors eyeing the SimpliFlying launchpad aviation accelerator, the development of eco-friendly practices in airports offers a landscape rich with potential.

The drive to decarbonise airports is reshaping every area of airport design and operation, from energy systems to ground operations and construction materials. This transformation opens up numerous opportunities for innovative technologies and solutions that can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of airports.

Moreover, airports are uniquely positioned to pioneer new sustainable technologies. Their role as critical infrastructure hubs, combined with their controlled environments and significant resources, makes them ideal testbeds for cutting-edge green solutions that could later be adapted for wider use in urban environments and other industries.

Carbon footprint of airports While aircraft emissions often dominate discussions about aviation's environmental impact, airports themselves contribute significantly to the sector's carbon footprint.

Airports account for an estimated 2% of global aviation emissions, which might seem small but is substantial given the immense scale of global emissions and the growing demand for air travel.

Source: ACI Europe

Key sources of airport emissions •

Energy consumption - Heating, cooling, and lighting of terminals, as well as electricity used for baggage handling, security systems, and other operations.

•

Ground operations - Emissions from ground support equipment (GSE) like baggage carts, pushback tugs, and shuttle buses.

•

Aircraft ground movements - Taxiing, take-offs, and landings also contribute to emissions within the airport perimeter.

•

Scope 3 emissions - Airports can’t be separated from the fact that they exist because aircraft fly in and out, burning carbon every time they do so

To put this into perspective, consider that Los Angeles International Airport (LAX): LAX emitted roughly 18.7 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2019. This is equivalent to the annual emissions of approximately 2.5 million average US households.

In other words, LAX's carbon footprint is comparable to the combined emissions of every household in a city the size of Chicago.

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As mentioned previously, airports themselves are not immune from the effects of global warming. Many airports are located in coastal areas and are themselves

vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as sea-level rise and storm surges.

This creates an additional imperative for airports to lead in sustainability efforts.

Global targets and market projections The market for green airport technologies is projected to grow significantly in the coming years. According to recent market research, the global green airport market size is expected to reach $12 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 10.2%.

This growth is fuelled by increasing investments in sustainable airport infrastructure, rising environmental concerns, and supportive government regulations.

Key factors driving investment potential •

Government incentives - Many governments are offering grants and tax incentives for green airport initiatives. For example, the US Federal Aviation Administration's Airport Zero Emissions Vehicle and Infrastructure Pilot Program has awarded millions in grants to support airport electrification projects.

•

Operational cost savings - Many decarbonisation initiatives, such as energy efficiency improvements and fleet electrification, can lead to significant operational cost savings for airports over time.

•

Brand value and customer preference - Airports and airlines that demonstrate strong commitments to sustainability can benefit from improved brand perception and customer preference.

•

Technology transfer potential Sustainable technologies developed for and tested in airport environments have the potential to be adapted for use in other industries and urban settings, expanding the market opportunity for investors. For example, electric ground vehicles can be used in everything from retail to logistics.

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Source: VOO QQQ on Unsplash

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Challenges and considerations While the opportunities in airport decarbonisation are significant, there are a number of challenges to be aware of: •

Space constraints - Airports often struggle to find adequate space for new infrastructure, including charging stations and renewable energy installations.

•

Grid capacity - The electrification of airport operations is projected to increase power demand significantly. For example, some airports expect a fivefold increase in electricity consumption by 2050.

•

Coordination with stakeholders - Successful decarbonisation requires close coordination between airport operators, airlines, ground handlers, and other stakeholders.

•

Long-term planning - Airport infrastructure projects often have long time horizons, requiring patient capital and a long-term investment outlook.

Areas of focus At the SimpliFlying Launchpad, we see potential in the following areas:

1. Sustainable Materials and Construction 1.1 Eco-friendly construction materials The use of sustainable materials in airport construction and renovation presents a significant opportunity for reducing embodied carbon. Innovative materials such as recycled concrete, low-carbon steel, and bio-based materials are increasingly being incorporated into airport projects.

For example, CELSA Group is supplying circular and low-emission steel for the construction of the new airport in Palma de Mallorca. This steel is produced using an electric arc furnace system, resulting in over 40% reduction in emissions compared Source: Economía de Mallorca to conventional products.

Investment opportunities •

Companies developing new sustainable construction materials

•

Firms specialising in life cycle assessment and carbon accounting for construction projects

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1.2 Carbon Capturing Concrete One of the most exciting developments in sustainable construction is carbon-capturing concrete from startups such as CarbonCure. This innovative material not only reduces the carbon footprint of construction but actively absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere over its lifetime.

For example, the $190-million runway and taxiway reconstruction project at Indianapolis International Airport was the first FAA-approved use of carbon capture technology in pavement. The project is using technology from CarbonCure to inject recycled CO₂ into the concrete mix, reducing its carbon footprint. The amount of carbon sequestered in the project is equivalent to planting 1.2 million trees.

The project has received Envision Platinum certification for its sustainability efforts.

Investment opportunities •

Companies developing and scaling carbon-capturing concrete technologies

•

Projects implementing these materials in large-scale airport constructions

•

Firms providing monitoring and verification services for carbon capture in built environments

Source: Regional Gateway

2. Airport Renewable Grids Integrating renewable energy sources into airport operations is a critical step towards decarbonisation. Many airports are investing in on-site solar farms, wind turbines, and other renewable energy technologies to power their operations.

Investment opportunities

Source: JFK NTO

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•

Renewable energy project developers specialising in airport installations

•

Energy storage solutions to manage the intermittency of renewable sources

•

Smart grid technologies for efficient energy management in airport settings

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & IMPACT AREAS - ECO-FRIENDLY AIRPORTS

3. Ground Vehicle Electrification 3.1 Ground support equipment (GSE) The electrification of ground support equipment and other airport vehicles represents a significant opportunity for reducing emissions and improving operational efficiency.

Many major US airports have been rapidly electrifying their GSE fleets. For example, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport now operates over 400 eGSE vehicles, including belt loaders, pushback tugs, and luggage tugs.

Investment opportunities •

Manufacturers of electric GSE vehicles

•

Charging infrastructure providers specialising in airport applications

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Battery technology companies focusing on high-duty cycle applications

3.2 Electric Shuttle Buses and Passenger Transport Airports are also transitioning their shuttle bus fleets to electric or low-emission alternatives. While some airports are opting for compressed natural gas (CNG) as an interim solution, the long-term trend is towards full electrification.

Examples of airports transitioning to electric/low-emission shuttles: •

Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT): Aims to replace its entire fleet of nearly 70 diesel shuttle buses with 50 electric models by the end of the decade.

•

Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport (YTZ): Ordered six Vicinity Lightning™ electric buses to replace its dieselpowered shuttle bus fleet.

•

Glasgow Airport (GLA): Became the first UK airport to introduce zeroemission electric buses to its operations in 2019.

Source: CLT Airport

Investment opportunities •

Electric bus manufacturers with airport-specific models

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Charging infrastructure providers for heavy-duty vehicles

•

Companies developing autonomous electric shuttle systems for airports

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4. Smart Taxiing Solutions Optimising aircraft movements on the ground can significantly reduce fuel consumption and emissions. Smart taxiing solutions, including electric taxi systems and advanced routing algorithms, are gaining traction.

object tracking, providing high precision in monitoring aircraft and ensuring safety by issuing warnings if two aircraft are in close proximity.

•

Intelligent AiPRON by ADB SAFEGATE: a suite of AI-driven technologies designed to optimise aircraft turnaround times. It includes features like JustIn-Time docking, real-time tracking of turnaround activities, and predictive analytics to enhance collaboration and decision-making among ground handlers.

•

Smart gating by American Airlines: Smart Gating technology optimises gate assignments and reduces taxi times. This technology ensures that gates are ready with the necessary team members when aircraft arrive, minimising delays and improving on-time performance.

Examples of smart taxiing solutions: •

•

•

TaxiBot: a semi-robotic hybrid towing system designed to taxi airplanes from the boarding gate to the takeoff runway without using jet engine power. This system can reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by up to 85%, noise pollution by 60%, and foreign object damage (FOD) per takeoff by 50%. Schiphol Airport has invested in TaxiBots to implement sustainable taxiing on a large scale.

Safran's e-TAXI system is an electric taxiing concept that allows aircraft to taxi without using their main engines.

This system helps in reducing fuel consumption and emissions during ground operations.

Visual AI for aircraft ground movement: Researchers have developed visual artificial intelligence systems that can recognise and track aircraft ground movements. These systems use algorithms like YOLOv4 for object recognition and Deep SORT for

Investment opportunities •

Startups developing electric taxi systems for aircraft

•

AI and machine learning companies focusing on optimising ground movements

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Providers of real-time data analytics for airport operations

Source: Taxibot

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5. Charging Infrastructure and Power Management The electrification of airport fleets and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles by passengers and employees necessitate significant investments in charging infrastructure and power management systems.

Investment opportunities •

Companies specialising in the design and installation of large-scale EV charging networks

•

Providers of smart charging solutions and load management systems

•

Energy storage solutions to manage peak loads and support grid stability

6. Sustainable Aviation Fuel While not directly related to airport infrastructure, the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel is a critical component of the aviation industry's decarbonisation efforts.

Airports play a crucial role in the SAF supply chain and distribution network.

Investment opportunities

Source: NTB Kommunikasjon

•

Infrastructure projects for SAF storage and distribution at airports

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Firms specialising in the logistics and supply chain management of SAF

Source: Neste

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Criteria for success Environmental impact reduction and energy efficiency: The technology's ability to reduce emissions, waste, and energy consumption.

Integration with existing airport infrastructure and operations: How well the technology can be implemented within current airport systems and processes.

Cost-effectiveness and return on investment: The economic viability of the technology, including initial costs and long-term savings.

Scalability and adaptability to different airport sizes: How the technology can be applied across various airport types and sizes.

Regulatory compliance and certification readiness: How well the technology aligns with current and anticipated regulations.

Passenger experience and operational efficiency improvements: How the technology enhances both passenger comfort and airport operations.

Resilience to climate change and future-proofing capabilities: How well the technology can adapt to changing environmental conditions and future needs.

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SOFTWARE AND AI SOLUTIONS Executive summary Software and AI are poised to be crucial tools in aviation sustainability, addressing both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions.

AI-driven fuel efficiency software can optimise flight plans, potentially reducing fuel consumption by up to 5% annually for airlines, translating to millions of tons of CO2 emissions reduction.

Contrail mitigation technologies using data, software, and AI could significantly reduce aviation's climate impact, with studies suggesting that altering just 2% of flights could reduce contrail-related climate change by 59%.

Predictive maintenance systems powered by AI can improve fuel efficiency by 1-2%, extend component lifespans, reduce material waste, and optimise maintenance schedules, contributing to both operational efficiency and environmental sustainability.

Real-world examples demonstrate the effectiveness of these technologies: Alaska Airlines saved 480,000 gallons of fuel in 2019 using AI for flight optimisation, while SATAVIA's contrail prevention platform could reduce individual flight climate impact by up to 60%.

Integration of these technologies with fleet management strategies can further amplify sustainability benefits, optimising resource utilisation and reducing waste across airline operations.

Investment opportunities lie in four key areas: AI-driven fuel efficiency software, contrail mitigation technologies, predictive maintenance systems, and flight path optimisation tools.

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Introduction In the quest for sustainable aviation, software and artificial intelligence (AI) can be powerful tools, offering solutions to reduce the industry's environmental impact.

The role of software and AI in aviation sustainability extends far beyond simple automation. These advanced systems can analyse vast amounts of data in real time, considering variables such as weather patterns, air traffic, and aircraft performance to make decisions that optimise fuel efficiency and reduce emissions.

These tools can help address not just aviation’s CO2 emissions but its non-CO2 emissions as well. These include nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), particulate matter, and perhaps most significantly, contrails. Contrails, the condensation trails left by aircraft, can contribute to the formation of cirrus clouds, which trap heat in the atmosphere.

Software and AI are uniquely positioned to tackle this challenge. By optimising flight paths to avoid areas prone to contrail formation; predicting maintenance needs to ensure peak engine efficiency; and fine-tuning routes to minimise overall emissions, these technologies offer a multifaceted approach to reducing aviation's climate impact.

As we delve deeper into specific solutions, it becomes clear that software and AI are not just tools for efficiency, but essential components in the industry's sustainability strategy.

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Areas of focus At the SimpliFlying Launchpad, we will be focusing on the following: 1. AI-driven fuel efficiency and flight planning software 2. Contrail mitigation technologies 3. Predictive maintenance systems We’ll look at each of these in more detail:

1. AI-driven fuel efficiency software Artificial Intelligence (AI) is ushering in a new era of flight planning and fuel efficiency in aviation. AI-driven software processes massive amounts of data to optimise flight plans with a level of precision and adaptability that surpasses human capabilities.

These intelligent systems can dynamically adjust flight routes in response to changing conditions, factoring in wind patterns, turbulence, and congestion to determine the most fuel-efficient path. They also optimise ascent and descent profiles, cruising altitudes, and speeds, ensuring that aircraft operate at their peak efficiency while maintaining schedule integrity.

Several cutting-edge technologies are already demonstrating the transformative power of AI in this domain. For example, Boeing's Direct Routes service utilises AI to identify shorter, more direct flight paths, resulting in substantial fuel savings for airlines.

The potential fuel savings and emission reductions from these AI-driven solutions are remarkable. Alaska Airlines, a pioneer in adopting AI for flight optimisation, reported saving 480,000 gallons of fuel in 2019 alone. On a broader scale, software provider Open Airlines estimates that big data and AI solutions could reduce fuel consumption by up to 5% annually for an airline.

This reduction in fuel consumption translates to significant environmental benefits. A 5% decrease in fuel usage could potentially slash aviation's CO2 emissions by millions of tons each year.

2. Reducing the impact of contrails Contrails, the white trails left behind by high-altitude aircraft, are increasingly recognised as a significant contributor to aviation's environmental impact.

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Contrails can evolve into cirrus clouds, which trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and exacerbate global warming. Some studies even suggest that contrails could account for more than half of aviation's total climate impact.

To address this challenge, a multi-pronged approach leveraging data, software, and AI is emerging as a promising solution. These technologies work in synergy to predict, avoid, and minimise the formation of persistent contrails.

• 1 Data collection and analysis: Advanced sensors mounted on aircraft and weather satellites gather real-time data on atmospheric conditions such as temperature, humidity, and air pressure.

This data is crucial in understanding the complex dynamics that lead to contrail formation.

•2 Predictive modelling: AI algorithms, fueled by the collected data, create sophisticated models that predict areas of the atmosphere where persistent contrails are likely to form.

•3 Flight path optimisation: Armed with these predictions, AI-driven software can dynamically optimise flight paths in real-time. This might involve minor adjustments to altitude or route, minimising contrail formation without significantly impacting fuel consumption or flight times.

•4 Real-time adaptation: During flights, AI systems continuously monitor atmospheric conditions and make real-time adjustments to further mitigate contrail formation. This dynamic approach ensures that aircraft can adapt to changing weather patterns and maintain optimal flight paths.

•5 Post-flight analysis: After each flight, AI systems analyse data to refine and enhance predictive models. This iterative process continuously improves the accuracy and effectiveness of contrail avoidance strategies.

EXAMPLE

SATAVIA's DECISIONX:NETZERO Platform SATAVIA is one of a number of companies developing and implementing AI-driven solutions for contrail mitigation. Their DECISIONX:NETZERO platform utilises AI to optimise flight plans for contrail prevention, with the potential to reduce the climate impact of individual flights by up to 60%.

This demonstrates the real-world impact that these technologies can have in reducing aviation's environmental footprint.

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Potential impact and challenges The potential impact of data-driven contrail mitigation is substantial. Research by Imperial College London indicates that altering the altitude of a mere 2% of flights could reduce contrail-related climate change by a remarkable 59%. However, several challenges remain, including the need for widespread adoption of these technologies across the aviation industry and integration with existing air traffic management systems.

3. Predictive maintenance AI-driven predictive maintenance can streamline aircraft upkeep, with efficiency and environmental benefits. By harnessing the power of machine learning algorithms and realtime data analysis, airlines can proactively predict when components are likely to fail or require maintenance, shifting from reactive to proactive maintenance strategies.

This approach yields a multitude of benefits: • 1 Optimised maintenance schedules: AI-powered algorithms analyse vast amounts of data from sensors embedded throughout the aircraft, identifying patterns and predicting potential issues before they escalate. This enables airlines to optimise maintenance schedules, reducing unnecessary checks and minimising resource waste.

As a result, the environmental impact of excessive maintenance activities, such as energy consumption and waste generation, is significantly reduced.

•2 Maximised aircraft availability: By addressing potential problems before they lead to breakdowns, predictive maintenance minimises unexpected downtime and keeps aircraft operational for longer durations. This translates to fewer flight cancellations and delays, avoiding the environmental costs associated with rebooking and rerouting passengers, as well as the additional fuel consumption and emissions from ground operations.

•3 Extended component lifespan: Timely maintenance, facilitated by predictive algorithms, ensures that aircraft components are serviced at the optimal time, extending their operational life.

This reduces the need for premature replacements, thus diminishing the environmental burden associated with manufacturing, transporting, and disposing of new parts.

•4 Enhanced fuel efficiency: Predictive maintenance ensures that engines

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and other critical systems operate at peak performance levels. Studies indicate that predictive maintenance can improve fuel efficiency by 1-2% which can lead to substantial emission reductions when applied across an entire fleet.

•5 Minimised material waste: By accurately predicting when parts require replacement, airlines can avoid discarding components that still have useful life remaining. This reduction in waste not only conserves resources but also decreases the demand for new parts production.

Integrating predictive maintenance with fleet management allows airlines to: •

Balance workloads across maintenance facilities: This ensures efficient resource utilisation, reduces energy consumption, and minimises unnecessary travel for maintenance crews.

•

Coordinate maintenance with periods of lower demand: By aligning maintenance schedules with periods of reduced flight activity, airlines can minimise disruptions to operations and optimise fleet utilisation.

•

Optimise spare parts inventory: Predictive maintenance data can be used to optimise spare parts inventory, ensuring that the right parts are available at the right time, reducing waste, and improving the sustainability of the supply chain.

Several airlines have already embraced AI-driven predictive maintenance to reap its benefits. Delta Air Lines, for instance, has implemented a predictive maintenance program that has significantly reduced maintenance-related delays and improved aircraft reliability. Rolls-Royce offers its TotalCare® service, which incorporates predictive maintenance to optimise engine performance and reduce emissions.

Source: David Ryder / Getty Images

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Criteria for success Emission reduction and fuel efficiency improvement potential: The solution's ability to decrease both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, including through fuel savings and contrail mitigation.

Accuracy and reliability of predictions and optimisations: The precision and dependability of the AI's recommendations for flight planning, maintenance scheduling, and other optimisations.

Integration capabilities: How well the software can be implemented within current airline and airport IT infrastructures and processes.

Scalability and adaptability: How easily the solution can be applied across various aircraft models and flight patterns, from short-haul to long-haul routes.

Data security and compliance: The solution's ability to protect sensitive information and adhere to industry-specific regulations and standards.

Cost-effectiveness and return on investment: The economic viability of the solution, including implementation costs and potential savings or revenue improvements.

User interface and ease of adoption: How intuitive and user-friendly the software is for pilots, dispatchers, and other aviation professionals who will be using it.

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THE FUTURE OF

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

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THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION

THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION At SimpliFlying, we're acutely aware of the challenges facing the sustainable aviation sector. Recent high-profile setbacks, such as the collapse of Fulcrum Bioenergy's "Trash-toSAF" facility and Universal Hydrogen's shutdown, echo the cleantech bubble of 2010-2011.

Meanwhile, political uncertainties, such as a potential Trump presidency, add another layer of complexity to the challenges faced by the industry.

Factors that could affect the trajectory of climate change mitigation:

1. Political impact A potential rollback of Biden-era green subsidies under the Trump administration could hinder initiatives like competitive green hydrogen production. The website Heated suggests this could lead to an additional four billion tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030 compared to a second Biden administration.

2. State-level action Despite any federal-level changes, many US states, particularly California, have robust green incentives. These states may double down on such policies to retain valuable industries and jobs.

3. Global opportunities The climate tech game extends beyond the US. Looking at the Americas, countries like Canada and Chile offer increasing ranges of subsidies and incentives, presenting alternative avenues for growth and development. Moreover, the EU and UK already have significant mandates and regulations in place.

4. Long-term trajectory While short-term political shifts may create uncertainty, the medium to long-term direction of climate tech remains clear.

Progress may be delayed in some areas but won't be halted

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How the SimpliFlying Launchpad addresses these complexities: funding strategies: Blending venture capital with corporate 1. Diversified investments and government support. alignment: Assisting companies in leveraging supportive government 2. Policy initiatives globally. partnerships: Facilitating collaborations between startups and 3. Strategic established aerospace companies. planning: Emphasising the importance of setting realistic timelines and 4. Realistic budgets. focus: Prioritising technologies with the most significant impact on 5. Impact decarbonising aviation. funding: Exploring new funding approaches, such as industry-wide 6. Innovative collaborative funds.

7. Supply chain resilience: Helping startups build robust and diverse supply networks. development: Connecting startups with skilled workforce needed for 8. Talent complex new technologies.

While caution is understandable given recent setbacks and political uncertainties, the sustainable aviation sector still holds immense potential. By addressing challenges head-on, fostering innovation, and maintaining a global perspective, we believe the industry is poised for significant growth and impact.

The journey ahead will have its share of turbulence, but with the right approach we're convinced that the sustainable aviation sector can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger.

For investors, entrepreneurs, and aviation stakeholders willing to join this journey, the potential rewards remain enormous, both financially and in contributing to a greener, more sustainable future for global aviation.

Source: The Climate Reality Project on Unsplash

Interested in joining the Launchpad as an investor, airline, airport, or startup?

CONTACT US

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GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS This glossary covers the main terms and abbreviations used throughout the document.

•

AI: Artificial Intelligence, the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems.

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ATJ: Alcohol-to-Jet, a process for converting alcohols into jet fuel.

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BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage, a technology that combines biomass energy production with carbon capture and storage.

•

•

•

•

BFR: Brominated Flame Retardant, a type of flame retardant used in many products, including aircraft cabin materials.

Biochar: A charcoal-like substance produced by burning organic matter in a low-oxygen environment, used for carbon sequestration.

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate, the rate of return required for an investment to grow from its beginning balance to its ending balance.

CCUS: Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage, a set of technologies aimed at capturing, using, or storing carbon dioxide to reduce its emission into the atmosphere.

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CDR: Carbon Dioxide Removal, various techniques for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

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CO2: Carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

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Contrail: Condensation trail, a cloudlike trail of condensed water vapour produced by aircraft engine exhaust or changes in air pressure.

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•

CORSIA: Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, a global market-based measure for offsetting CO2 emissions from international aviation.

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DAC: Direct Air Capture, a technology that captures CO2 directly from the ambient air.

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E-fuels: Synthetic fuels produced using renewable electricity, also known as electrofuels or Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels.

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eCTOL: Electric Conventional Take-Off and Landing aircraft.

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eGSE: Electric Ground Support Equipment, GSE powered by electricity instead of fossil fuels.

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eSTOL: Electric Short Take-Off and Landing aircraft.

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ETS: Emissions Trading System, a market-based approach to controlling pollution by providing economic incentives for reducing emissions.

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eVTOL: Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing aircraft.

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FOD: Foreign Object Damage, damage to aircraft caused by foreign objects on the runway or in the air.

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FT: Fischer-Tropsch, a set of chemical reactions used to produce liquid hydrocarbons from carbon monoxide and hydrogen.

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GSE: Ground Support Equipment, vehicles and equipment used to service aircraft between flights.

GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS

•

Gt: Gigaton, a unit of mass equal to one billion metric tons.

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NOx: Nitrogen Oxides, a family of airpolluting chemical compounds.

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H2: The chemical symbol for hydrogen, a colourless, odourless gas that can be used as a fuel source.

•

PtL: Power-to-Liquid, another term for e-fuels.

•

RAM: Regional Air Mobility, a concept for short-distance air transportation within a region.

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SAF: Sustainable aviation fuel, a type of fuel derived from sustainable sources that can be used as an alternative to conventional jet fuel.

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HEFA: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, a type of biofuel produced from oils and fats.

•

IATA: International Air Transport Association, the trade association for the world's airlines.

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ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organisation, a specialised agency of the United Nations.

•

SUPP: Single-Use Plastic Products, disposable plastic items designed to be used only once before being discarded.

•

IEA: International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organisation that provides policy recommendations, analysis, and data on the global energy sector.

•

TRL: Technology Readiness Level, a method for estimating the maturity of technologies.

•

UAM: Urban Air Mobility, a concept for air transportation systems in and around urban areas.

•

UCO: Used Cooking Oil, a feedstock for some types of biofuel production.

•

Wh/kg: Watt-hours per kilogram, a unit of measurement for energy density in batteries.

•

IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organisation supporting countries in their transition to sustainable energy.

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JetA: A type of aviation fuel used in aircraft powered by gas-turbine engines.

•

Li-ion: Lithium-ion, a type of rechargeable battery commonly used in electronic devices and electric vehicles, known for its high energy density and long cycle life.

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Li-S: Lithium-sulfur, a type of rechargeable battery.

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LOHC: Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier, a technology for storing and transporting hydrogen.

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ML: Machine Learning, a subset of AI that focuses on the use of data and algorithms to imitate the way humans learn, gradually improving its accuracy.

•

MSW: Municipal Solid Waste, commonly known as trash or garbage.

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