Utah Outlook 2019 - Quarter 2

QUAR TER LY SURVEY OF U TAH RES IDEN T S 2019 - QU ART ER 2

J U LY 2 0 1 9

The Salt Lake Chamber recognizes the link between public leadership and business well-being. On behalf of the Salt Lake Chamber, Dan Jones & Associates surveys likely voters and asks questions about the direction of our country and state, presidential and gubernatorial leadership, voter preferences for major races, and other timely issues important to the future of the state. The survey, which will be known as Utah Outlook, is conducted quarterly and includes likely voters.

A companion survey, the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook, queries top-level business executives from a representative mix of industries about current and future economic conditions. Together, the Utah Outlook and CEOutlook help Utah business and community leaders make informed business decisions.

METHODOLOGY Dan Jones & Associates conducted this initial survey June 11-July 1, 2019. It includes a statistically valid, statewide sample of 801 likely voters. In addition, surveyors oversampled in Salt Lake City to secure statistically valid results for the Salt Lake City mayoral race.

Sampling includes a blended sample of telephone respondents (82 percent) and online respondents (18 percent). Quotas were managed by age and county.

Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community

RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think the United States is going in the right or wrong direction?

Total (number responding)

801

Right direction

42%

Wrong direction

51%

Don’t know

6%

Right direction

42%

Wrong direction 2019-Q2

51%

N=801

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Do you think Utah as a state is going in the right or wrong direction?

Total (number responding)

801

Right direction

64%

Wrong direction

27%

Don’t know

9%

Right direction Wrong direction 2019-Q2

64% 27%

N=801

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 2

1

FAVORABILITY Now, I’ll read you a list of names. For each one, first tell me if you have heard of the person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Not very favorable

Not at all favorable

Heard of, no opinion

Never heard of

President Donald Trump

28%

20%

10%

39%

2%

0%

Senator Mike Lee

27%

25%

11%

23%

9%

5%

Senator Mitt Romney

27%

34%

18%

17%

4%

0%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

29%

39%

13%

7%

7%

4%

Governor Gary Herbert

33%

33%

15%

10%

6%

2%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

28%

33%

6%

5%

13%

14%

Congressman Rob Bishop

15%

29%

13%

16%

14%

13%

Congressman Chris Stewart

16%

27%

7%

15%

18%

17%

Congressman John Curtis

13%

26%

10%

8%

19%

24%

Congressman Ben McAdams

15%

33%

17%

12%

12%

12%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Very Favorable or Somewhat Favorable Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

68%

Governor Gary Herbert

66%

Senator Mitt Romney

61%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

61%

Senator Mike Lee

52%

Congressman Ben McAdams

48%

President Donald Trump

48%

Congressman Rob Bishop

44%

Congressman Chris Stewart Congressman John Curtis

2

43% 39%

Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community

RE-ELECT Next, I’ll read you a list of names. For each one, tell me if they have performed well enough that they should be re-elected to another term, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve.

Should be re-elected "to another term

Time to give someone new a chance to serve

Don’t know

President Donald Trump

45%

52%

4%

Senator Mike Lee

45%

44%

11%

Congressman Chris Stewart

37%

36%

27%

Congressman Ben McAdams

43%

32%

25%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

President Trump Re-Elect Should be re-elected to another term

45%

Time to give someone new a chance to serve 2019-Q2

52%

N=801

President Trump Re-Elect by Age 57%

55%

53%

18 to 24

25 to 34

47%

44%

44%

40%

36%

52%

35 to 44

45 to 54

n Should be re-elected to another term

51%

49%

55 to 64

46%

65 or older

n Time to give someone new a chance to serve

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 41%

33% 26% President Trump Re-Elect by Political Affiliation 32%

Republican

Democrat

43%Jones & Associates Source: Dan 36%

2019 - Quarter 2

40% 41%

28% 12%

1%

25%

Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton

68%

57%

42%

Other

Time to give someone new a chance to serve n47%

44%

37%

40% 42% 28%

13%

Don’t know

1%

Unaffiliated voter

n Should be re-elected to another term 45%

2%

The Democratic nominee

4%

13% 17%

11%

8%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

28%

5%

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

70%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

5% 6%96%

45% 43%

3

2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE If the 2020 election for governor of Utah were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote?

Total (number responding)

758*

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

32%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 57% 55% Former Speaker Greg Hughes

33% 53%

52%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas 44%Wright 40% 36% Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton

47%

44%

51%

5% 49% 5% 46% 2%

The Democratic nominee

11%

Don’t know

13%

*Note: Sample is less than 801 because Chaffetz was removed after announcing he will not run for governor.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 or older

Gubernatorial Likely Vote 41% 33%

2%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

5%

n All Voters (758)

1%

1% Don’t know

5% 6%

13% 17%

11%

8%

The Democratic nominee

26%

Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton

32%

n Republicans (343)

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

45%

43%

47%

40% 41%

36%

44% 37%

45% 43%

40%

28% 12%

7% 18 to 24

25 to 34

13%

9%

35 to 44

45 to 54

58% 34% 24%

4

55 to 64

7% 65 or older

53%

45%

Republican

9%

Democrat

32%

Unaffiliated voter Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community

2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT. Of those candidates, for whom are you least likely to vote?

Total (number responding)

759*

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

11%

96%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 70%Speaker Greg Hughes Former

6% 68%

15% 57%10%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

10% 42%

Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton 28% The Democratic nominee Don’t know

28%

25%

19%

4%

*Note: Sample is less than 801 because Chaffetz was removed after announcing he will not run for governor.

Republican Democrat Unaffiliated voter Other Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Gubernatorial Likely Vote

42% 28%

Don’t know

The Democratic nominee

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

n All Voters (758)

6%

19% 17%

10% 11%

Councilwoman Aimee WinderNewton

8%

6% 4%

10%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

15%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

11% 13%

n Republicans (343)

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 2

5

57%

55%

18 to 24

52% 44%

44%

40%

36%

53%

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

51%

47%

55 to 64

49%

46%

65 or older

2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT.

45%

43%

47%

40% 41%

36%

44% 37%

Don’t know Don’t know

The Democratic The Democratic nominee nominee

Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head by Age

Councilwoman Councilwoman Aimee WinderAimee WinderNewton Newton

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Former Republican Former Republican Party Chair Party Chair Thomas Wright Thomas Wright

Don’t know

Former Speaker Former Speaker Greg HughesGreg Hughes

Former Governor Former Governor Jon Huntsman, JonJr. Huntsman, Jr.

Lt. GovernorLt. Governor Spencer CoxSpencer Cox

Now, assume41% the field of candidates for governor is narrowed to three.

18For to 24whom33% 25 to 35 vote to 44 for if the 45 to 54 55 to 64 the following?

65 or older 32% would34you likely candidates were 26% 13% 17% 11% Total 8% 41% 6% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 33% (number responding) 801 32% 26% Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. 43% 13% 17% 11% Lt. Governor Spencer Cox 37% 8% 5% 6% 5% 2% 1% 1% Former Speaker Greg Hughes 8% 12%

45% 43%

40%

28% 45%

43%

12%

36% 7%

47%

40% 41%13%

37% 9%

44%

40%9%

45% 43% 7%

28% 18 to 24

25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or older 13% 12% 9%Spencer Cox 9% 7% n Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. n Lt. Governor n Don’t know 7%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

18 to 24

45% 25 to 34

58% 35 to 44

45 to 54

34% Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head by Political Affiliation 24% 58%

Republican

53%

65 or older 32%

53%

45% 34% Republican

55 to 64

Democrat24%

32% Unaffiliated voter

Democrat

Unaffiliated voter

n Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. n Lt. Governor Spencer Cox Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Gubernatorial Race Head-to-Head Amongst All Voters Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

43% 37%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

6

Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community

2019 SALT LAKE CITY MAYORAL RACE (SALT LAKE CITY VOTERS ONLY) If the 2019 Salt Lake City mayoral election were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote?

Total (number responding)

149

Former Senator Jim Dabakis

30%

Senator Luz Escamilla

15%

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

12%

Businessman David Ibarra

8%

Attorney David Garbett

5%

Councilman Stan Penfold

5%

Don’t know

25%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

SLC Mayor Likely Vote

30% 25%

15%

12% 8%

Councilman Stan Penfold

Businessman David Ibarra

Attorney David Garbett

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

Senator Luz Escamilla

Former Senator Jim Dabakis

Don’t know

5%

5%

Increasing funding for education

3.85

Promoting economic development and job creation

3.75

Addressing homelessness in Utah

3.50

Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Reforming the liquor laws

2019 - Quarter 2

3.32 2.48

7

ISSUES In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the country?

In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the state of Utah?

1. Immigration 2. Health care 3. President Trump 4. Economy 5. Climate change

1. Education 2. Growth 3. Housing 4. Air quality 5. Taxes

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Now, I will read some issues currently facing the state of Utah.

For each issue,please rate it using a 1-5 scale, with ONE meaning it is AT THE BOTTOM of your priority list and FIVE meaning it is AT THE TOP of your priority list.

30%

Total 1 (bottom)

2

3

4

5 (top)

25% Mean

Increasing funding for education

8%

9%

17%

21%

45%

3.85

Increasing funding for roads, 15% highways and freeways

7%

13%

38%

26%

16%

3.32

3%

14% 8%31%

3.50

3.75

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

17%

17%

5%

9%

23%

31%

32%

2.48

Don’t know

Number responding: 801

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

Senator Luz Escamilla

Former Senator Jim Dabakis

Promoting economic development and job creation

5% 39%

Councilman Stan Penfold

Reforming the liquor laws

32% 19% 5% 13% 15%

Businessman David Ibarra

Addressing homelessness in Utah

Attorney David Garbett

12%

Priority of Issues Facing Utah

Increasing funding for education

3.85

Promoting economic development and job creation

3.75

Addressing homelessness in Utah

3.50

Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Reforming the liquor laws

3.32 2.48

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

8

Utah Outlook: Taking the Pulse of Our Community

Don’t know

Councilman Stan Penfold

Businessman David Ibarra

Attorney David Garbett

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

Senator Luz Escamilla

Former Senator Jim Dabakis

Increasing funding for education

3.85

Promoting economic development and job creation

3.75

ISSUES: TAX REFORM Addressing homelessness in Utah

3.50

Increasing funding for education

3.85

State Leaders have proposed broadening the sales tax base by taxing some Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways service transactions. This will create greater balance and more stable Promoting economic development and job creation 3.75 revenue while lowering the overall sales tax rate. In general, do you Reforming the liquor laws 2.48 support or oppose state tax reform?

Addressing homelessness in Utah

3.50

Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways Tax Reform Support

3.32

Reforming the liquor laws

Oppose, 40%

3.32

2.48

Support, 49%

Oppose, Support, Don’t Know, 11% 40% 49% * Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

50%

Don’t Know, 11%

52%

52%

49%

43%

45%

40%

36%

50% 43%

42%

Tax Reform Support29%

21% 52%

50%

43% 29%

18 to 24

52% 16%

49% 5% 36% 25 to 34

40% 35 to 44

45% 7% 43% 45 to 54

50% 13% 42% 55 to 64

7%

65 or older

21% 16% 7%

5% 18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

n Support n Oppose

45 to 54

13%

55 to 64

7%

65 or older

n Don’t know

* Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 2

9