Q4 2021
Not only that, Utah business leaders are feeling the pinch of a tight labor market as the state’s unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 1.9% in December. It is becoming more difficult to find qualified or skilled candidates for open positions, and workers are expecting higher pay. Executive expectations remain mixed for the short-term as companies juggle labor shortages, inflation, supply constraints, and housing shortages. Overall, 2021 was a year of challenges and disruption. Nonetheless, Utah business leaders and customers have responded with resilience, actively taking steps to address the negative effects, such as reengineering supply chains and utilizing reskilling or upskilling opportunities. Despite headwinds, population growth, tech and innovation expansion, and a favorable business climate will continue to lead the way to our state’s success! CEOutlook
4.0% 3.0%
3.1% 2.9%
2.6%
3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
2.0% 1.0%
3.5%* 2.3%*
1.8% 0.8%*
3.9%*
2.5%*
1.7%*
0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 80.0 70.0 66.3 60.0
75.3 74.3 62.8 62.0 60.6 62.4 62.3 60.9
50.0 40.0
55.5 53.2
60.1
53.3
61.2 59.4
57.358.9
65.9 60.0
32.3
30.0
Optimism
-2.6%*
Concern
And yet, Utah’s job creation over the prior two-year period is the strongest in the nation at 3.7%, whereas nationally, it remains at -1.8%. This strong divergence of Utah’s economy relative to the nation’s could partially account for the drop in confidence as executives look at the larger competitive picture.
The Salt Lake Chamber's CEOutlook Confidence Index decreased from 65.9 in 2021-Q3 to 60.0 in 2021-Q4. Year-Over Job Change
The CEOutlook Index dropped for the final quarter of 2021, finishing the year at 60, down from 65.9 in Q3. None too surprising as this drop in expectations coincided with the rise of the Omicron variant and supply chain disruptions. Both of which continue to influence Utah business leader sentiment and magnify the uncertainty of the pandemic’s variants on structural headwinds.
Confidence Index and Job Change
Confidence Index
Derek B. Miller, President and CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
20.0 10.0 0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2019 2018 2017 2021 *Q2 calculated on 2-year percent change
The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index is based on responses to the four standard questions included in each quarter’s survey (Questions 1-4). The Index can range from 0 to 100. A score below 50 indicates executives believe the economy will worsen; a score above 50 indicates a belief among executives that the economy will improve. Source: Index is produced from the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook with support from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, including analysis of the employment data prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Natalie Gochnour, Director and Chief Economist, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber Uncertainty. This is the economic word of the year. Even before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine Utah CEOs felt unsure about current and future economic conditions. Looking forward, Utah’s business leaders feel unsettled, even as they recognize our state’s inherent strengths. The Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook Confidence Index has now declined for three consecutive quarters. Utah CEOs cite labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, continued inflation, and housing affordability as top areas of concern. They view current economic conditions as more positive than the outlook six months into the future, which implies a cautionary approach to business planning. This outlook, coupled with Putin’s war of choice, makes all of us feel a bit unsettled. While uncertainty is the watchword, a can-do spirit is the phrase. Utah business leaders can take Utah’s inherent strengths – fastest-growing population, top-performing economy, favorable business climate, well-diversified economic structure, and public and private leadership – and lead through the storm. Can-do means Utah leaders confront challenges with resolve. The CEOutlook provides a valuable source of information as we lead with our strengths. Fourth Quarter
I 2021